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Wale
Wale
Abeyou Wale
April, 2008
Hydrological Balance of Lake Tana
Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
By
Abeyou Wale
Thesis submitted to the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation in
partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geo-information Science
and Earth Observation, Specialisation: (Integrated Watershed Modelling and Management)
This document describes work undertaken as part of a programme of study at the International
Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation. All views and opinions expressed
therein remain the sole responsibility of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of
the institute.
Abstract
Lake Tana’s water balance is not well understood since a large part of the Lake Tana basin is
ungauged with uncertain inflows. In recent studies by Kebede et al. (2006) and SMEC (2007) closure
of Lake Tana water balance is obtained by runoff from ungauged catchments that cover a large part of
the Lake Tana basin. In this thesis water balance terms are calculated on a daily base while simulated
daily lake levels are compared to observed levels for the period 1995 to 2001.
Daily flows from an ungauged catchment are estimated by transferring model parameters from gauged
catchments using a regionalisation procedure, a spatial proximity procedure and catchment area
ratio’s methods. In regionalisation gauged catchment model parameters of the conceptual rainfall-
runoff model HBV are transferred to ungauged catchments based on catchment characteristics to
allow for runoff simulation. In the proximity procedure model parameters of gauged catchments are
transferred to neighbouring ungauged catchment. In area ratio model parameter sets of gauged
catchments are transferred to ungauged catchments of comparable area.
Criteria for selection of gauged catchments to be used in the procedures are the relative volume error
objective function value and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient that, respectively should be less than +5%
or -5% and greater than 0.6. Following this procedure, results indicate that flows from ungauged
catchments are estimated as large as 41%, 47.5% and 46.4% of the total river inflow respectively.
Default parameter sets and combined parameter set of default and the average of gauged sensitive
parameters are applied in all of the ungauged catchments the result indicates that the runoff from
ungauged catchments to be 55% and 45.4% of the total river inflow respectively.
Lake areal rainfall is estimated by inverse distance interpolation, open water evaporation is estimated
by the Penman-combination equation. The water balance closure term was established by comparison
of measured and calculated lake levels. Row data of a bathymetric survey in 2006 is used to establish
area-volume and volume-lake level relations.
Daily lake level simulation with inflows from ungauged catchments estimated by regionalization
shows the best performance with a relative volume error of 1.6% and a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of
0.9. Results show that runoff from ungauged catchment is around 880 mm per year for the simulation
period from 1995 to 2001. Sensitivity analysis of the lake level shows that Lake Tana is highly
sensitive to Lake Basin rainfall, river inflows and evaporation respectively.
i
Acknowledgements
Above all I thank the LORD GOD for His mercy and grace upon me during all these days here in ITC
and in all my life.
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the Netherlands Government through the Netherlands
Fellowship Programme (NFP) for granting me this opportunity. I am also grateful to my employer
Bahir Dar University, Engineering Faculty for providing me leave for the study period.
Very special thanks to my first supervisor Dr.Ing. Tom Rientjes who introduce me the regionalization
approach and for his guidance, encouragement and critical comments throughout the thesis period.
Without him, this work wouldn’t have been realized. My sincere thanks also to second supervisor Ing.
M.Sc. R.J.J. Remco Dost for his encouragement and comments to improve my research work.
I would like to acknowledge Dr. A.S.M. Ambro Gieske for his assistance and cooperation during my
study.
I would also like to express my appreciation to all WRS department staffs at ITC community who
helped me directly or indirectly during my study.
I would like to thanks also Ethiopian Ministry of Water Resources and National Meteorological
Agency for providing hydrological and meteorological data for free.
Last but the best, I would like to thank my wonderful parents, for their unlimited support through out
my life.
Abeyou Wale
[email protected]
ii
Table of contents
1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................1
1.1. Background of the study ........................................................................................................1
1.2. Relevance of the study ...........................................................................................................1
1.3. General objective ...................................................................................................................3
1.4. Research question ..................................................................................................................3
1.5. Methodology ..........................................................................................................................3
1.6. Thesis outline.........................................................................................................................5
2. Description of Study Area .............................................................................................................7
2.1. General...................................................................................................................................7
2.1.1. Climate of the study area...........................................................................................8
2.1.2. Hydrological setting of the study area.......................................................................8
2.1.3. Topography ...............................................................................................................9
2.1.4. Land cover ...............................................................................................................10
2.1.5. Soils .........................................................................................................................11
2.2. Field visit and data collection ..............................................................................................12
2.2.1. Hydrological data ....................................................................................................13
2.2.2. Hydrological data quality ........................................................................................13
2.2.3. Meteorological data.................................................................................................15
2.2.4. Analysis of rainfall data ..........................................................................................15
3. Methodology..................................................................................................................................17
3.1. Water Balance......................................................................................................................17
3.2. Water balance terms from observed data.............................................................................17
3.2.1. Lake areal rainfall....................................................................................................17
3.2.2. Open water evaporation...........................................................................................19
3.2.3. Surface water inflow from gauged catchments .......................................................20
3.2.4. Groundwater inflow and outflow ............................................................................20
3.3. Surface water inflow from ungauged catchments................................................................21
3.3.1. Selection of representative catchments and catchment characteristics...................21
3.3.2. Modelling of the gauged catchments.......................................................................24
3.3.3. Establishing the regional model ..............................................................................25
3.3.4. Estimation of model parameters and predicting discharge at the ungauged
catchments............................................................................................................................26
3.4. Hydrological modeling ........................................................................................................26
3.4.1. HBV model structure...............................................................................................26
3.4.2. Input data of HBV model ........................................................................................29
3.4.3. Calibration of HBV model ......................................................................................30
3.4.4. Objective function ...................................................................................................31
3.5. Lake Bathymetry..................................................................................................................32
4. Results of water balance components.........................................................................................35
4.1. Lake areal rainfall ................................................................................................................35
4.2. Lake evaporation..................................................................................................................36
iii
4.3. Outflow and lake level relation........................................................................................... 38
4.4. Runoff from gauged catchment........................................................................................... 39
4.5. Bathymetric map generation ............................................................................................... 39
5. River inflow from ungauged catchments .................................................................................. 45
5.1. Catchment delineation and selection of representative catchments.................................... 45
5.2. Catchment characteristics of gauged catchments................................................................ 46
5.3. Modelling of gauged catchments ........................................................................................ 47
5.3.1. HBV model input ................................................................................................... 47
5.3.2. Model calibration ................................................................................................... 48
5.3.3. Model validation..................................................................................................... 50
5.3.4. Model parameter sensitivity analysis ..................................................................... 51
5.4. Establishing the regional model.......................................................................................... 53
5.4.1. Catchment selection criteria for regionalization .................................................... 53
5.4.2. Relation of catchment characteristics and model parameters ................................ 53
5.4.3. Validation of regional model.................................................................................. 61
5.4.4. Estimation of model parameters and prediction of discharge at the ungauged
catchments ........................................................................................................................... 61
6. Water balance .............................................................................................................................. 67
6.1. Model development............................................................................................................. 67
6.2. Daily lake level simulation ................................................................................................. 69
6.3. Sensitivity of lake water balance ........................................................................................ 71
7. Conclusion and Recommendation.............................................................................................. 73
7.1. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 73
7.2. Recommendation................................................................................................................. 74
References:........................................................................................................................................... 75
Annex.................................................................................................................................................... 79
Appendix A: List of Acronmys ..................................................................................................... 80
Appendix B: List of meteorological and hydrological stations.................................................... 81
Appendix C: Albedo calculation from landsat ETM+ ................................................................. 82
Appendix D: Long-term monthly lake areal rainfall map (1992-2003) ........................................ 85
Appendix E: Bathymetric cross-section with and without control points..................................... 87
Appendix F: General procedure to obtain relevant information from DEM................................. 88
Appendix G: Catchment characteristics for gauged catchments................................................... 89
Appendix H: Sensitivity analysis of HBV model parameters and optimum parameter space ...... 90
Appendix I: Correlation of catchment characteristics................................................................... 91
Appendix J: Ungauged catchment characteristics......................................................................... 93
Appendix K: Area-volume and elevation-volume relation comparison of Pietrangeli (1990), Kaba
(2007) and the result from this thesis work................................................................................... 94
iv
List of figures
Figure 1-1: Simplified flow chart of the methodology adopted in the research ......................................4
Figure 2-1: Location of lake in the country’s north-west highlands at 12o00’N, 37o15’E ......................7
Figure 2-2: Digital elevation model of Lake Tana Basin with X-X’ and Y-Y’ cross-section .................9
Figure 2-3: West-East (X-X’) cross-section of Lake Tana Basin ..........................................................10
Figure 2-4: South-North (Y-Y’) cross-section of Lake Tana Basin.......................................................10
Figure 2-5: Land cover of Lake Tana Basin ..........................................................................................11
Figure 2-6: Lake Tana major soil groups as per FAO classification (EMWR) .....................................12
Figure 2-7: Lake Tana Basin drainage system and spatial pattern of gauging stations .........................13
Figure 2-8: Suspect river flow data of Gilgel Abay River (1996) .........................................................14
Figure 2-9: Ribb River discharge near Addis Zemen.............................................................................14
Figure 2-10: Comparison of river discharge and rainfall data of Gelda River ......................................15
Figure 2-11: Long-term annual average rainfall (1992-2003) ...............................................................16
Figure 2-12: Rainfall-elevation relation.................................................................................................16
Figure 3-1: Meteorological stations in and around Lake Tana ..............................................................18
Figure 3-2: Station elevation versus long-term averaged annual rainfall (1992-2003) .........................19
Figure 3-3: Schematic representation of HBV model (IHMS, 2006) ....................................................27
Figure 3-4: The transformation function (IHMS, 2006) ........................................................................29
Figure 4-1: Comparisons of long-term mean monthly areal rainfall on Lake Tana (1992-2003)..........36
Figure 4-2: Albedo map of Lake Tana Basin .........................................................................................37
Figure 4-3: Long-term averaged monthly (1992-2003) mean temperature, relative humidity, daily
sunshine hour and open water evaporation (1992-2003) .......................................................................37
Figure 4-4: Outflow and lake levels of Lake Tana (1975-2006)............................................................38
Figure 4-5: Annual lake level-outflow relation of Lake Tana ...............................................................39
Figure 4-6: Calibration, validation and control points of bathymetric sample points ...........................40
Figure 4-7: Exponential variogram model of calibration sample points................................................41
Figure 4-8: Validation of interpolation by ordinary kriging ..................................................................41
Figure 4-9: Comparison of elevation-volume and area-volume relationship of Pietrangeli (1990) and
the results from this thesis work ............................................................................................................42
Figure 4-10: Lake Tana depth contour map of 1 m contour interval measured from 1786.3m amsl ....43
Figure 5-1: Lake Tana major tributaries and nine selected gauged catchments ....................................46
Figure 5-2: Long-term monthly potential evapotranspiration mm day-1 (1992-2003) ...........................48
Figure 5-3: Model calibration result of Gilgel Abay catchment (1993-2001) .......................................50
Figure 5-4: Model calibration result of Kelti catchment (1998-2001)...................................................50
Figure 5-5: Model validation results of Gilgel Abay catchment............................................................51
Figure 5-6: Sensitivity analysis of model parameter Alfa......................................................................52
Figure 5-7: Sensitivity analysis of model parameter Beta .....................................................................52
Figure 5-8: Sensitivity analysis of model parameter LP ........................................................................53
Figure 5-9: Lake Tana ungauged catchments........................................................................................62
Figure 5-10: Parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments by spatial proximity ...............63
Figure 5-12: Parameter transfer by area ratio ........................................................................................64
Figure 5-13: Comparison of long-term average monthly runoff estimates from ungauged catchments
(1992-2003)............................................................................................................................................65
v
Figure 6-1: Simplified flow chart of spreadsheet lake water balance model ........................................ 68
Figure 6-2: Comparison of lake level simulations of Pietrangeli (1990) bathymetry and the results
from this thesis work ............................................................................................................................. 69
Figure 6-3: Comparison of lake level simulation in different ungauged flow estimation techniques .. 70
Figure 6-4: Sensitivity of water balance components ........................................................................... 71
vi
List of tables
Table 1-1: Summary of water balance studies on Lake Tana ..................................................................3
Table 2-1: Facts and figures of Lake Tana...............................................................................................8
Table 2-2: Soil properties of major soil groups (SMEC, 2007).............................................................12
Table 3-1: Model parameter space in SMHS HBV model (IHMS, 2006).............................................31
Table 4-1: Thiessen and inverse distance weights of meteorological stations for lake areal rainfall
estimation ...............................................................................................................................................35
Table 4-2: Long-term average annual river flow of the major tributaries (1992-2003) ........................39
Table 4-3: Performance of bathymetric interpolation methods .............................................................42
Table 5-1: Major sub catchments of Lake Tana basin with respective gauged and ungauged areas.....45
Table 5-2: Catchment characteristics for representative catchments.....................................................47
Table 5-3: Weights of rainfall stations by inverse distance squared interpolation................................47
Table 5-4: Temperature and evaporation weights of meteorological stations in the catchments ..........48
Table 5-5: Calibrated model parameters for gauged catchments including Hq (1993 - 2000)..............49
Table 5-6: Basin time of concentration for selected gauged catchments in Lake Tana Basin ..............49
Table 5-7: Model validation from year 2001 to 2003 ............................................................................51
Table 5-8: Correlation between catchment characteristics and model parameters...............................55
Table 5-9: Statistical characteristics of Alfa regression equation..........................................................57
Table 5-10: Statistical characteristics of Beta regression equation .......................................................58
Table 5-11: Statistical characteristics of FC regression equation..........................................................59
Table 5-12: Statistical characteristics of K4 regression equation..........................................................59
Table 5-13: Statistical characteristics of PERC regression equation.....................................................59
Table 5-14: Statistical characteristics of KHQ regression equation ......................................................60
Table 5-15: Statistical characteristics of LP regression equation ..........................................................60
Table 5-16: Statistical characteristics of Hq regression equation..........................................................61
Table 5-17: Validation of the regional model of gauged catchments from 2001 to 2003 .....................61
Table 5-18: Default and default plus average of sensitive parameter sets.............................................64
Table 6-1: Performance indicators of lake level simulation (1995 - 2001) ...........................................70
Table 6-2: Lake Tana water balance components simulated from 1995 to 2000 ..................................71
vii
viii
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
1. Introduction
Anybody who has lived near a lake can observe the phenomenon of lake level fluctuation which is
characterized by higher water levels during the spring and early summer and lower water levels during
the remainder of the year. Such fluctuations are the result of several natural factors but also human
activities. The primary natural factors affecting lake levels are the amount of water inflow by rainfall,
river inflow, etc. and outflow by evaporation, river outflow, etc. Influential human factors include
diversions of water into or out of the basin, dredging of outlet channels and the regulation of outflows.
For management of lake water volumes a proper assessment of components of the hydrological cycle
in terms of a water balance is extremely essential. This is also applicable to Lake Tana water balance
that is studied in this research.
Regarding the water resources management, there is increasing water utilization along the lower Nile
valley (Egypt and Sudan) straining the limited freshwater resources of the basin. Similarly, there is an
increasing demand for irrigation and hydropower development in Ethiopia and the country is
experiencing a number of problems such as rapid population growth, limited water resources,
environmental degradation and poverty.
1
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
The Lake Tana hydrologic system shows gaps with respect to major lake water balance components
with only about 40% of the catchment is gauged (SMEC, 2007). To make efficient use of available
water resources with balanced attention to maximize economic, social, and environmental benefits, it
is necessary to have effective integrated water planning. Prior to any planning of water resource
development however it is essential to identify and evaluate the total available water resources of the
basin. In this study, the water balance of the Lake Tana will be established which is considered as the
per-requisite step, for integrated water resource management.
Previous studies attempting to estimate the water balance components of the lake show significant
variations on monthly basis. Major drawbacks of those studies are by poor estimation of flow from
ungauged catchments, use of a historic bathymetric survey and poor selection of representative
meteorological stations. A summary of resent research after the Lake Tana water balance is attached
below.
SMEC (2007) simulated the water balance of the lake from the period 1960 through April 1995 using
a simple monthly spreadsheet model.
To account for inflow from ungauged areas, simple multiplication factors are applied to the
gauged discharge. Inflow from ungauged catchments is estimated to be 1.41 times the inflow
from 5 gauged catchments (Gilgel Abay, Koga, Gumara, Ribb, and Megech) which is 29.0% of
the total inflow.
Evaporation is estimated by the average of the energy balance and Penman method.
A bathymetric survey carried out by Studio Pietrangeli (1990) is used to simulate the lake level.
Lake areal rainfall is estimated based on inverse distance interpolation using stations in the
vicinity of the lake.
Kebede et al. (2006) established the water balance of Lake Tana and its sensitivity to fluctuations in
rainfall (1960-1992) on monthly basis.
To estimate precipitation on the lake, monthly time series of rainfall (1960-1992) at the Bahr
Dar station (the nearest station located at the southern shore of the Lake) is used.
Inflow from the ungauged catchments is estimated from a runoff coefficient (α=0.22). The
inflow from ungauged catchment is estimated to contribute less than 7% of the total inflow.
An elevation-volume and area-volume relation of Lake Tana by a bathymetric survey carried
out in 1937 Morandini (1940) is used.
The Penman evaporation is calculated with net short-wave radiation data from Addis Ababa
and Bahir Dar meteorological stations.
Pelgrum and Bastiaanssen (2006) estimate the dynamics of evaporation and rainfall in the Tana-Beles
basin by means of advanced remote sensing technologies (2001).
The actual evaporation of the Tana-Beles Basin is mapped for the year 2001 using the SEBAL
algorithm (Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land)
The rainfall data of Bahir Dar station is adopted as lake areal rainfall
Obviously a need is identified to improve estimates and to simulate the water balance and related lake
levels at a daily basis.
2
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Table 1-1: Summary of water balance studies on Lake Tana. All terms are in mm water depth
1.5. Methodology
The methodology covers three phases; pre-field work covers the first phase of the study and focussed
on collection of relevant literatures and downloading satellite images from archives. In the second
phase of the study fieldwork is executed and primary and secondary data of the study area are
collected from Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (EMA) and Ethiopian Ministry of Water
Resource Bureau (EMWR).
In the third and final phase of the work, data collected is processed to estimate lake areal rainfall, river
flow from ungauged catchments, lake evaporation and Lake Bathymetry followed by lake level
simulation and validation with observed lake level. See Figure 1-1 for a simplified flow chart of the
methodology adopted.
3
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Figure 1-1: Simplified flow chart of the methodology adopted in the research
4
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Chapter one gives a general introduction to the study with emphasis on global water budget, relevance
and objective of the study. Chapter two gives a brief description of the study area, data availability
and data quality. Chapter three discuses the lake water balance components and the methodology
adopted. Chapter four deals with data processing and results of water balance components from
observed data such as lake areal rainfall, open water evaporation, bathymetric map generation, lake
level simulation and outflow data. Chapter five deals with estimation of runoff from ungauged
catchments. In chapter six spreadsheet water balance modelling and lake level simulation are
presented. Chapter seven ends with conclusion and recommendations by this study.
5
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
6
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
2.1. General
Lake Tana is the source of the Blue Nile River and has a total drainage area of approximately 15,000
km2, of which the lake covers 3,060 km2 at elevation 1,786 m amsl. The lake is the largest lake in
Ethiopia and the third largest in the Nile Basin. The lake is located in the north-west highlands at
12o00’N, 37o15oE which is 564 km from the capital Addis Ababa (see Figure 2-1).
o o
Figure 2-1: Location of lake in the country’s north-west highlands at 12 00’N, 37 15’E
The lake is approximately 84 km long and 66 km wide, with mean and maximum depth of 7.2 and 14
m respectively and has more than 30 islands. An important development to improve management of
Lake Tana water resources includes the construction of the water level regulation weir at the mouth of
the lake in 1996. The weir enables to regulate the outflow of water for the Tis Abay I and II
Hydroelectric power plant some 32 km downstream of Lake Tana. Some details of Lake Tana are
provided in Table 2-1.
7
Table 2-1: Facts and figures of Lake Tana
There is diurnal difference in temperature, but the temperature is comparatively uniform through out
the year with a mean annual temperature of 20.2 °C at Bahir Dar and 20.6 °C at Gondar (1994-2004).
The annual average daily maximum and minimum temperature (1994−2004) at Bahir Dar are 27.2 °C
and 13.2 °C respectively, and these at Gondar are 27.3 °C and 13.9 °C respectively. The mean annual
relative humidity (1994−2004) at Bahir Dar is 58% and Gondar is 52.7%.
The water level of the lake rises gradually during the rainy season to reach its maximum level in
September at the end of the rainy season, after which it slowly falls to reach its minimum water level
in June. The annual water level variation is approximately 1.6m, while the historical maximum water
level was 1,788.02 m amsl (September 21, 1998) and the minimum water level 1,784.46 m amsl (June
30, 2003).
The only river flowing out of Lake Tana is the Blue Nile River (Abay River), the natural annual
outflow from the lake ranges from a minimum of 1075 Mm3 (in 1984) to a maximum of 6181 Mm3 (in
1964) with an average value of 3732 Mm3 (period 1976-2006).
8
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
2.1.3. Topography
Lake Tana is located in a wide depression of Ethiopian Plato and is surrounded by high hills and
mountains except where the outflow leaves the lake by a narrow valley in the south-east. The lake
catchment has minimum elevation of approximately 1784m amsl at east, north and west-south side of
the lake on the flood plain of Ribb (Fogera floodplain), Megech (Dembia floodplain) and Gilgel Abay
respectively and a maximum elevation of 4107 m amsl at east side of the lake at the boundary of Ribb
catchment. The average elevation of the lake is 2909 m amsl, Figures 2-3 and 2-4 show west-east and
south-north topographic cross-section X-X’ and Y-Y’ respectively of Lake Tana Basin (Figure 2-2).
Figure 2-2: Digital elevation model of Lake Tana Basin with X-X’ and Y-Y’ cross-section
9
Figure 2-3: West-East (X-X’) cross-section of Lake Tana Basin
10
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
2.1.5. Soils
Soils in most of the Tana Basin are derived from the weathered basalt profiles and are highly variable.
In low lying areas particularly north and east of Lake Tana and along parts of Gilgel Abay, soil have
been developed on alluvial sediments (SMEC, 2007). Five major soil groups in this area (Figure 2-6)
are Fluvisols 10%, Leptosols 20.1%, Luvisols 36.5%, Nitisols 1.6% and Vertisols 11.8% in
11
combination with four diagnostic horizon modifiers: chromic, eutric, haplic, and lithic collected from
EMWR.
Table 2-3: Soil properties of major soil groups (SMEC, 2007)
Figure 2-6: Lake Tana major soil groups as per FAO classification (EMWR)
12
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Figure 2-7: Lake Tana Basin drainage system and spatial pattern of gauging stations
The river discharge data collected for seventeen gauging stations representing 47% the lake basin was
screened to identify unreliable or spurious data; screening was done with the help of graphical tools
and some suspicious data and data gaps have been observed. Plotting the river flow data of Gilgel
Abay River shows that the recession curve of 1995/1996 has some error in such that the nearby
catchment Koga River did not react (Figure 2-8) and the flow data collected from Ribb river seems to
be trimmed since it has a constant flow for long periods (Figure 2-9) that can be explained by flooding
of the embankment and submergement of the station.
Figure 2-8: Suspicious river flow data of Gilgel Abay River (1996)
14
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
The graphical view of Gelda River daily discharge Figure 2-10 shows that the river flow increases by
a factor 7 observed in 1998/1999 and 2003. This is quite puzzling since the rainfall pattern of the area
didn’t change significantly. In this work it is assumed that irregularities are due to measurement errors
or use of an erroneous rating curve.
250 0
200 20
River flow m3/s
40
Rainfall mm
150
60
100
80
50 100
0 120
31/1/1993 23/9/1994 15/5/1996 5/1/1998 28/8/1999 19/4/2001 10/12/2002 1/8/2004
Date
Rainfall River flow
Figure 2-10: Comparison of river discharge and rainfall data of Gelda River
According to EMA, meteorological stations have been classified by a station code. Code one
(principal stations) are stations at which observations are taken every three hours measuring rainfall,
relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed and sunshine duration. For
stations code two (synoptic station) observations are taken every 24 hours rainfall, relative humidity,
maximum temperature, wind speed and sunshine duration. For stations code three (ordinary stations)
only daily rainfall, daily maximum and minimum temperatures are observed whereas code four
stations (rainfall recording stations) only observe daily rainfall amount (see station name and code
Appendix B).
The rainfall-elevation relationship was plotted using all 13 meteorological stations and shows that
only 22.0% of variation in rainfall can be explained by the linear relationship between rainfall and
15
elevation whereas 78.0 % of the total variation in rainfall remains unexplained. After excluding the
stations located on the north shore and island of lake 73.0 % of variation in rainfall can be explained
by station elevation (Figure 2-12).
2900
R2 = 0.22
Station elevation m amsl
2700
2500
2300 R2 = 0.73
2100
1900
1700
700 1000 1300 1600 1900 2200 2500
Long-term average annual rainfall mm
Linear (Excluding station on the north shore ) Linear (All station)
16
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
3. Methodology
In Figure 3-1 it is shown that there are five meteorological stations in and around the lake. Daily
observations from these stations have to be converted to obtain areal coverage by using interpolation
techniques such as inverse distance and Thiessen polygon methods.
17
Figure 3-1: Meteorological stations in and around Lake Tana
Accurate estimation of the spatial distribution of rainfall and extrapolation of point measurements
over large areas is complicated. This is especially true in mountainous environments where, in
addition to the stochastic nature of rainfall, the precipitation pattern may be influenced by the
irregular topography. The large variability in altitude, slope and aspect may increase variability by
means of processes such as rain shading and strong winds. The best method to improve the quality of
spatial rainfall estimation is to increase the density of the monitoring network. However, this is very
costly, and in many cases practically not feasible (Buytaert, 2006). In the study all five meteorological
stations are located at similar elevation with a maximum elevation of 1892 m amsl at Chewhit and a
minimum elevation of 1786 m amsl at Deke Estifanos.
A long-term annual average rainfall and station elevation linear relationship established based on the
five meteorological stations from 1992 to 2003 and shows that elevation and precipitation have
inverse relationship. Figure 3-2 shows that Bahir Dar and Zege stations located at the south shore of
the lake at relatively lower elevation receive a relatively higher amount of precipitation whereas
stations Delgi and Chawhit located north of the lake at a relatively higher elevation receive slightly
lower amount of precipitation.
18
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
1910
Chawhit
1890
y = -0.1114x + 1984.2
R2 = 0.81
Station elevation m amsl
1870
Delgi
1850
Bahir Dar
1830
1810 Deke
Estifanos
1790
Zege
1770
1750
700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900
Long-term annual average rainfall mm
Figure 3-2: Station elevation versus long-term averaged annual rainfall (1992-2003)
In this study the Penman method is applied which is widely used as the standard method in hydrologic
engineering applications to estimate potential evaporation from open water under varying locations
and climatic conditions. In 1948, Penman combined the energy balance with the mass transfer method
and derived an equation to compute the evaporation from an open water surface from standard
climatic records of daily sunshine hours, temperature, humidity, altitude and wind speed.
19
Rns (Net radiation): is the difference between incoming and outgoing radiation of both short and
long wavelengths.
R n = R s (1 − α) − R L [3-4]
Where: RS: is short wave radiation, α: is surface Albedo and RL: is long wave radiation
n
R s = 0.25 + 0.50 R a [3-5]
N
Where: N: is maximum possible duration of sunshine hours [hour], n: is actual duration of sunshine
[hour] and Ra: is extraterrestrial radiation [MJ m-2 day-1].
Albedo
Albedo represents the fraction of incoming solar radiation that is reflected back to the atmosphere and
is a measure of the reflectivity of the earth's surface. Ice, especially with snow on top of it, has a high
Albedo where most sunlight hitting the surface bounces back towards space. Water is much more
absorbent and less reflective. So, if there is a lot of water, more solar radiation is absorbed by the
water that will warm and evaporate the water. Albedo values range from 0 (pitch black) to 1 (perfect
reflector). Satellite-borne instruments constitute, a unique tool for monitoring surface Albedo values
at the global and temporal resolutions adequate for meteorological and climate studies (Beniston and
Verstraete, 2001).
Albedo can be estimated from a number of satellite sensors where in this study the landsat ETM+
image is used to estimate albedo of the lake. The sensor provides 8 bands with three different
resolutions over a swath width of 185km. The procedures to estimate Albedos are:
Geometric and radiometric correction
Top of the atmosphere radiance
Atmospheric correction (using 6s4u preprocessor software and 6s atmospheric correction
model)
Narrow band to broad band albedo (see Appendix C for a full description).
Landsat ETM+7 images dated 10/23/1999, 09/12/1999 and 11/15/1999 was acquired from
http://glcfapp.umiacs.umd.edu:8080/esdi/index .jsp page for free.
20
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
highly unlikely. Due to the presence of the thick clay layer under the lake and by the scarcity of
piezometric data, the groundwater component of the water balance is assumed to be negligible and
ignored in this study.
A number of approaches are currently available for prediction of ungauged catchments flows.
Methods appropriate include direct estimates of parameters for ungauged catchments using theatrical
understanding of (small-scale) soil physics (Koren et al., 2000), transferring calibrated gauged model
parameters to neighboring ungauged catchment (Vandewiele and Elias, 1995) while the most common
approach relates model parameters to catchment characteristics by means of statistics (see Seibert,
1999; Merz and Blöschl, 2004 and Booij et al,. 2007, among others).
In this study calibrated model parameters of gauged catchments are transferred to ungauged
catchments to predict catchment runoff. Parameters are transferred based on spatial proximity,
catchment area ratio and catchment characteristics while in addition also default parameters and a
combination of default plus averages of highly sensitive parameter are adapted to all ungauged
catchments to simulate the runoff. Parameter transfer based on physical catchment characteristics
(PCCs) referred as regionalization is a technique that relates hydrological phenomena to physical and
climatic characteristics of a catchment, or region (Young, 2005). The approach has four distinct steps
that are subsequently described in the following sections.
Selection of representative catchments and catchment characteristics
Modelling of the gauged catchments
Establishing the regional model
Estimation of model parameters and predicting discharge at the ungauged catchments.
21
In Lake Tana basin there are 17 gauged catchments that cover 47% of the catchment area. From these
catchments a number of representative catchments will be selected to transfer model parameters to the
ungauged catchments by considering availability of reliable daily flow data and satisfactory
performance of the catchment model by model calibration.
In this study a wide range of PCCs are used to estimate flow characteristics of ungauged catchments.
Generally PCCs can be classified into five major groups as: Climate, Geography and physiography,
Geology, Soil and Land use and cover condition. A total of 23 PCCs were derived to represent the
above major groups. PCCs are climate index, catchment area, length of longest flow path, hypsometric
integral, average altitude, average slope of catchment, drainage density, percentage of level,
percentage of hilly, percentage of steeply, circularity index, elongation ratio, percentage of forest,
percentage of grassland, percentage of cropland, percentage of bare land, percentage of urban and
built-up, percentage of woody savannah, percentage of luvisols, percentage of leptosols, percentage of
nitisols, percentage of vertisols and Percentage of fluvisols.
1. Climate characteristics:
Climate characteristics include precipitation, evaporation, wind, relative humidity etc. Evaporation
and rainfall are the major components of the water budget and both components have a considerable
effect on the runoff generation. In this study climate index (Abebe and Foerch, 2006), often denoted
as aridity/humidity index is used, it is the ratio of mean annual precipitation to potential
evapotranspiration. Potential evaporation is calculated by Penman-Monteith equation.
2. Geography and physiography: includes size and shape of catchment, elevation, slope and
aspect.
Catchment Area: The amount of water reaching the river from its catchment depends on the size of
the area; it reflects the volume of water that can be generated from rainfall.
Basin Shape: Basin shape is not usually used directly in hydrologic design methods; however,
parameters that reflect basin shape are used occasionally and have a conceptual basis. Watersheds
have an infinite variety of shapes, and the shape supposedly reflects the way that runoff will
accumulate at the outlet. A circular watershed would result in runoff from various parts of the
watershed reaching the outlet at the same time. An elliptical watershed having the outlet at one end of
the major axis and having the same area as the circular watershed would cause the runoff to be spread
out over time, thus producing a smaller flood peak than that of the circular watershed (http://cnx.org/
content/m14421/latest/). A number of watershed parameters have been developed to reflect basin
shape. The following are typical parameters:
Circularity Index (CI): is calculated as the ratio of ‘perimeter square to the area of the catchment’,
the circularity of a circle is 12.5 where the circularity of a square is 16. It increases as the catchment
gets elongated.
P2
CI = [3-6]
A
Where P and A are the perimeter [m] and area [m2] of the catchment, respectively.
22
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Elongation Ratio (EL): indicates how the shape of the basin deviates from a circle. It is an index to
mark the shape of the drainage basin. It is defined as the ratio of length of longest drainage to
diameter of a circle that has the same area as the basin.
LL
EL = [3-7]
4*A π
Where LL and A are the length of longest length [m] and area [m2] of the catchment, respectively.
The circularity index and elongation ratio has important hydrological consequences because, in
contrast to more circular catchments, precipitation delivered during a storm in highly elongated basins
has to travel a wide range of distances to reach the basin outlet. The resulting delay in the arrival of a
proportion of the storm flow consequently leads to a flattening of the storm hydrograph.
Slope: slope is one of the factors that controls water velocity where higher slope result in higher
velocity of flow; therefore it takes less time for the catchment runoff to reach the stream. In this study
a number of catchment characteristics will be used to represent the catchment from Shuttle Radar
Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model (SRTM DEM) of 90m resolution these are average
elevation, hypsometric integral, average slope of catchment and FAO slope classes (Percentage of
level, Percentage of hilly and Percentage of steeply).
Hypsometric integral: the hypsometric curve describes the distribution of elevation across the
catchment area. Simply calculated as:
Mean Elevation − Minimum Elevation
Hi = [3-8]
Maximum Elevation − Minimum Elevation
Average slope: a DEM was obtained from SRTM 90m resolution from http://srtm.csi.
cgiar.org/SELECTION/inputCoord.asp and the slope is calculated pixel by pixel to estimate the
average slope of the catchment, the calculated slope map is also classified by FAO slope class into
major three groups a, b and c classes.
3. Geology: includes drainage feature (pattern, density, etc.) parent rock (igneous, sedimentary, and
metamorphic).
Drainage density: is calculated by dividing the total stream length for the basin by the catchment
area. A high drainage density reflects a highly dissected drainage basin with a relatively rapid
hydrologic response to rainfall events, while a low drainage density means a poorly drained basin with
a slow hydrologic response.
4. Soil: includes soil depth, soil type, soil infiltration capacity, etc. Soil data is required as input for
hydrological modelling which influences runoff generation, in this study a soil map of the major soil
groups of Lake Tana basin as per FAO soil group has been collected from EMWR GIS department
described below.
23
Fluvisols are found typically on level topography that is flooded periodically by surface waters or
rising groundwater, as in river floodplains and deltas and in coastal lowlands. Fluvisols are, by
definition, flooded by rivers. Fluvisols are young soils where sedimentary structures are clearly
recognizable in the soil profile. Leptosols are very shallow soils over continuous rock and soils that
are extremely gravely and/or stony. Leptosols are azonal soils and particularly common in
mountainous regions. Luvisols are soils that have a higher clay content in the subsoil than in the
topsoil as a result of pedogenetic processes (especially clay migration) leading to an argic subsoil
horizon. Luvisols have high-activity clays throughout the argic horizon and a high base saturation at
certain depths. Luvisols have a medium to high storage capacity for water and nutrients and are well
aerated. Nitisols are deep, well-drained, red, tropical soils with diffuse horizon boundaries and a
subsurface horizon with more than 30 percent clay and moderate to strong angular blocky structure
elements that easily fall apart into characteristic shiny, polyhedric (nutty) elements. The good
workability of Nitisols, their good internal drainage and fair water holding properties are
complemented by chemical (fertility) properties that compare favourably with those of most other
tropical soils. Nitisols have relatively high contents of weathering minerals, and surface soils may
contain several percent of organic matter, in particular under forest or tree crops. Vertisols are
churning, heavy clay soils with a high proportion of swelling clays. These soils form deep wide cracks
from the surface downward when they dry out, which happens in most years. All the above
descriptions of the FAO soil groups are from (FAO, 2006).
4. Land use and cover condition: includes land cover types (forest grassland, agriculture, urban etc)
It is well known that deforestation causes changes in soil properties and infiltration rates, which
ultimately affects the soil erosion processes and hydrological cycle of the catchment. The effect of
changes in land use and plant cover are especially pronounced in mountain areas, since they are high-
energy environments, which sediment transfer from the hill slopes to the channels is greatly facilitated
(Huber and Bugmann, 2005). In this study a land cover map was collected from EMWR GIS
department and it has been updated by Landsat ETM+ and evaluated based on field data.
As such applications of physical based models is practically not feasible because of their extreme data
demand and instead conceptual models are selected which has fewer number of parameters. In this
thesis work the HBV model is adopted to simulate runoff data of gauged catchments by the following
reasons:
• Scientific applications on HBV are reported from more than 50 countries around the world.
• HBV input data have been kept as simple as possible, which are suitable for the study area
where data scarcity and data quality are the major problems.
24
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
• It has been commonly proposed that parsimonious models are best suited to regionalisation
technique (see Croke, 2000), where HBV model has a limited number of sensitive parameters
and able to simulate the dominant hydrological processes.
• HBV model is a conceptual semi-distributed model, where catchments can be disaggregated
into sub-basins, elevation zones and land cover types.
In multiple regression analysis it is possible to predict a dependent variable from a set of independent
variables. In statistical methods, the order in which the independent variables are entered into (or
taken out of) the model is determined according to the strength of their correlation with the dependant
variable. In multiple regression analysis forward selection and backward elimination methods are
available.
Forward selection: enters the independent variables into the model one at a time in an order
determined by the strength of their correlation with the dependant variable. The first variable included
in the model is the one that has the highest correlation. The variable that enters second is the one that
has second highest correlation with the dependant variable and low correlation with the first entered
variable to reduce the effect of multi-collinearity. This process terminates when the variable entering
the model has insignificant regression coefficient or when all the variables are included in the model.
Backward elimination: enters all the predictor variables into the model and successively eliminates
the weakest independent variable after which the regression will be recalculated. If this significantly
weakens the model then the predictor variable is re-entered otherwise it is deleted. This procedure is
then repeated until only useful predictor variables remain in the model (Xu and Zhang, 2001).
25
Multi-collinearity: the term multi-collinearity (or collinearity) is used to describe the situation when
a high correlation is detected between two or more predictor variables. Such high correlations cause
problems when trying to draw inferences about the relative contribution of each predictor variable to
the success of the model. When two or more independent variables in the regression model are
perfectly correlated, one cannot calculate the parameter estimates, because no unique solution of the
normal equation exists. When the independent variables are imperfectly but highly correlated, it is
next to impossible to isolate there individual effects on the dependant variable, because the regression
coefficients cannot be estimated accurately (Kohler, 1994).
Since the purpose of the regionalisation is to estimate characteristics of the flows at an ungauged site
rather than estimating the model parameters, the performance of the regionalisation should be
assessed by comparing the predicted and observed response characteristics for gauged test catchments
(Croke, 2000). In order to determine the performance of which regression equation reflects the
relation between the model parameters and catchment characteristics at best, in general Relative
Volume Error (RVE) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (NS) are calculated. That is described in more
detail at section 3.4.4.
26
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
27
Soil routine
The soil moisture accounting routine is based on three empirical parameters Beta, FC and LP (Eqn’s
[3-13] and [3-14]). Beta controls the contribution to the response function (∆Q/∆P) or the increase in
soil moisture storage (1- ∆Q/∆P) from each millimeters of rainfall or snow melt, the ratio is often
called runoff coefficient and ∆Q is often called effective precipitation (IHMS, 2006).
FC is the maximum soil moisture storage (mm) in the model. Actual evapotranspiration by the soil
moisture routine is related to the measured potential evapotranspiration, the soil moisture state and the
parameter value LP. Actual evapotranspiration from the soil box equals the potential evaporation if
SM/FC is above LP while the linear reduction is used when SM/FC is below LP and Beta that
controls the contribution of soil moisture storage, SM, to the response function ∆Q/∆P.
Beta
∆Q SM
= [3-13]
∆P FC
SM
EA = EP , 1 [3-14]
LP * FC
Where: ∆Q/∆P: response function, SM: Compound soil moisture routine, FC: Maximum soil moisture
storage, EA: actual evapotranspiration, EP: Potential evapotranspiration and LP: Limit for potential
evaporation.
Response routine
Excess water from the soil is transferred by the runoff response function. This routine comprises two
tanks that distribute the generated runoff in time to obtain the quick and slow parts of recession. The
lower reservoir is a simple linear reservoir representing the contribution to the base flow filled by
percolation (PERC) from upper reservoir, K and K4 represents the recession coefficients from the
upper and lower reservoir respectively.
Q l = K4 * LZ [3-16]
Where: QO: Direct runoff from upper reservoir, K: recession coefficient upper reservoir, UZ: upper
reservoir storage, Q1: lower reservoir outflow, LZ: lower reservoir storage and K4: recession
coefficient lower reservoir storage.
Transformation function
The runoff generated from the response routine (Q=Q1+Qo) will be routed separately for each sub-
catchment through a transfer function in order to fine-tune the shape of the hydrograph at the outlet of
the subbasin. This transfer function is a simple filter technique with a triangular distribution of the
weights (see Figure 3-4). The time base of the triangular distribution is given by the parameter
maxbas.
28
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
To consider the orographic effect HBV model has a built-in correction factor called PCALT, the
catchment will be divided into different elevation zones. For each zone the precipitation will be
corrected according to the increase in elevation above sea level (usually 10-20% per 100 m).
PCALT(h − h o )
P(h) = PA 1 + [3-17]
10000
P(h): Rainfall corrected for orographic effect [mm], PA: Observed rainfall [mm], h: Average height of
elevation zone [m amsl], ho: Height of rainfall observation [m amsl] and PCALT: Rate of rainfall
increase over 100m.
Potential evapotranspirtation
Long-term mean values are used as estimates of the potential evapotranspirtation at a certain time of
the year. It is thus assumed that the interannual variation in actual evapotranspiration is much more
dependent on the soil moisture conditions than on the interannual variation in potential evaporation
(IHMS, 2006). In IHMS HBV model potential evaporation, normally monthly mean estimates are
used, either measured or calculated. In this study daily potential evaporation is calculated by Penman-
Monteith formula (Eqn. [3-18]).
0.408∆(R n − G ) + γ U 2 (e s − e a )
900
ET0 = T + 273 [3-18]
∆ + γ(1 + 0.34U 2 )
Where
ETo - Reference evapotranspiration [mm day-1]
Rn - Net radiation at the crop surface [MJ m-2 day-1]
G - Soil heat flux density [MJ m-2 day-1]
T - Mean daily air temperature at 2 m height [°C]
U2 - Wind speed at 2 m height [m s-1]
29
es - Saturation vapour pressure [kPa]
ea - Actual vapour pressure [kPa]
∆ - Slope vapour pressure curve [kPa °C-1]
γ - Psychrometric constant [kPa °C-1].
IHMS HBV model parameters can be grouped into volume controlling (FC, LP and Beta) that
influence the total volume and shape controlling parameters (K4, PERC, KHQ, HQ and Alfa) that
distribute the calculated discharge in time and inflaming the shape of hydrograph. HQ is the high flow
level at which the recession rate KHQ is assumed to hold, it is calculated interims of the mean annual
flow and/or mean annual peak flow (Eqn. [3-19]).
HQ =
(MQ * MHQ ) * 86.4
0.5
or HQ =
MHQ * 43.2
[3-19]
A A
Where: MQ: mean annual flow, MHQ: is the mean annual peak flow and A: area of catchment.
The quick flow is calibrated by KHQ and Alfa. KHQ results in higher peaks and more dynamic
response in hydrograph. Alfa is used in order to fit the higher peaks into the hydrograph. The higher
Alfa the higher the peaks and the quicker the recession (IHMS, 2006). Baseflow is adjusted with
PERC and K4. The level of the base flow is adjusted with PERC as a lower value of PERC results in
low base flow. K4 describes the recession of baseflow. Table 3-1 shows recommended start values
and parameter space for a new basin/ subbasin to be calibrated.
30
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Table 3-1: Model parameter space in SMHS HBV model (IHMS, 2006).
Approximate
Parameter Starting value Comment
Interval
FC Use a value for the 100-1500 Maximum soil moisture storage [mm]
region
LP 1 <=1 Limit for potential evaporation
Beta 1 1-4 Exponent in the equation for discharge
from the zone of soil water
K4 0.01 0.001 – 0.1 Recession coefficient for lower
response box
PERC 0.5 0.01 – 6 Percolation from upper to the
lower response box [mm]
KHQ 0.09 0.005 – 0.2 Recession coefficient for upper response
box
Alfa 0.9 0.5 – 1.1 Measure of non-linearity to the
response of upper reservoir
In this study calibration is done manually by trial and error method. The approach of calibration will
have two steps, first the model will be calibrated by volume controlling parameters FC, LP and Beta,
that is followed by calibration of shape governing parameters KHQ and Alfa for the quick flow and
K4 and PERC for the base flow.
n n
∑ Q Sim (i ) − ∑ Q obs (i )
RVE = i =1 i =1 100% [3-20]
n
∑i =1
Q obs (i )
Where
RVE: Relative volume error, Q Sim (i ) : simulated flow, Q obs (i ) : observed flow
31
A relative volume error less than +5% or −5% indicates that a model performs well while relative
volume errors between +5% and +10% and −5% and −10% indicate a model with reasonable
performance.
Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient
Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient measures the efficiency of the model by relating the goodness-of-fit of the
model to the variance of the measured data, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies can range from -∞ to 1. An
efficiency of 1 corresponds to a perfect match of modelled discharge to the observed data. An
efficiency of 0 indicates that the model predictions are as accurate as the mean of the observed data,
whereas an efficiency less than zero (-∞ < NS < 0) occurs when the observed mean is a better
predictor than the model. Besides, due to frequent use of this coefficient, it is known that when values
between 0.6 and 0.8 are generated, the model performs reasonably. Values between 0.8 and 0.9 tells
that the model performs well and values between 0.9 and 1 indicates that the model performs
extremely well (Deckers, 2006).
∑ (Q − Q obs(i ) )
n
2
sim(i)
i =1
NS = 1 − 2
[3-21]
n
___
∑ Q obs(i ) − Q obs
i =1
Where:
___
NS: Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, Q Sim (i ) : Simulated flow, Q obs (i ) : Observed flow and Q obs : Average
of observed flow.
The first bathymetry survey of Lake Tana is conducted in 1937 by the Italian Missione di Studio al
Lago Tana, the lake area is estimates to be 3156 km2 and lake elevation was quoted as 1829 m amsl.
In 1990, Lake Tana bathymetry was conducted by Pietrangeli (1990) a total of 900 samples points are
collected with 5 km and 10 km intervals to east-west and north-south direction respectively. In 2006 a
bathymetric survey was conducted by Kaba (2007) a total of 4424 sample points with 5 km traverse
route and 30 seconds (which equals some 200 to 300 m navigation distances) interval. According to
Kaba (2007) study as a limit to the traverse path to the lake shore an arbitrary 1 km buffer was fixed
where beyond which no sounding is taken place. In this study to simulate the water balance with
related lake level the row data of Kaba (2007) is reprocessed and a comparison to the survey by
Pietrangeli (1990) fitted polynomial function is done.
In addition to the 4424 sample depth points collected by Kaba (2007), 425 sample control points with
elevation 1786.30 m amsl are included that are along the lake shore and boundary of islands extracted
32
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
from SRTM DEM. The elevation value 1786.30 m amsl is the average lake gauge level of 11 days
from Feb 11-22, 2000 where SRTM DEM mission was conducted.
33
34
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
2. Inverse distance
The rainfall intensity at a point P(x,y) out of the rain gauge network is inversely proportional to
distance. The power parameter m controls how the weighting factor reduces as the distance from the
reference point increases (Eqn. [4-2]).
n 1
∑ m Ps
− i=1 d
P= i [4-2]
n 1
∑ m
i=1 d i
−
Where P : Areal average rainfall, Ps: Rainfall measured at subregions, di : Distance of station from the
region centre, m : distance weight, n: Number of meteorological stations.
Table 4-1: Thiessen and inverse distance weights of Lake Tana rainfall stations
35
Applying the weights of these meteorological stations, the daily areal rainfall of the lake is estimated
from 1992 to 2003 for Thiessen and inverse distance interpolation. The daily areal rainfall results are
accumulated to estimate long-term monthly average rainfall. Figure 4-1 shows that areal rainfall to
increase from Thiessen to Inverse distance with an increase of emphasize to the distance. Thiessen
method shows 1229 mm/year, Inverse distance with weight one and two show 1254 mm/year and
1290 mm/year respectively. The long-term average monthly annual rainfall (1992-2003) of the
stations was interpolated pixel by pixel by inverse distance of weight one to compare with the results
of Eqn’s. [4-1] and [4-2] (see long-term monthly areal rainfall map of Lake Tana Appendix D) the
result shows a long-term annual average rainfall of 1248 mm/year.
400
Lake areal rainfall (mm)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Thiessen Inverse m=1 Pixel by pixel monthly Inverse m=2
Figure 4-1: Comparisons of long-term mean monthly areal rainfall on Lake Tana (1992-2003)
Albedo for the lake is estimated from Landsat ETM+ following the procedure at section 3.2.2. The
result shows that in the lake area Albedo ranges from 0.05 to 0.062 has an average of 0.058 (Figure 4-
2). This value is used for open water evaporation calculation which is close to Albedo value used at
Lake Ziway in Ethiopia 0.06 (Vallet-Coulomb et al., 2001).
The evaporation calculated in daily basis shows average value of 4.6 mm/day from 1992 to 2003 and a
long-term averaged annual evaporation of 1690 mm/year (Figure 4-3).
36
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
82.00 6.00
72.00 5.50
Open water evaporation
Humidity %, T mean oC and
5.00
62.00
4.50
Sunshine hr
52.00
mm/day
4.00
42.00 3.50
32.00 3.00
2.50
22.00
2.00
12.00 1.50
2.00 1.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Figure 4-3: Long-term averaged monthly mean temperature (1992-2003), relative humidity, daily sunshine
hour and open water evaporation (1992-2003)
37
4.3. Outflow and lake level relation
Outflow from the Lake Tana and lake level data are available from 1959 with some missing flow data
in 1982 and 1991; the lake level data at Bahir Dar station has partial missing data for only year 1991.
Screening of outflow data indicates that the time series records for the years 1993 and 1994 are
exactly the same.
In 1996 a low height weir was constructed at Chara-Chara across the Abay River at the outlet of the
lake. The weir is equipped with two radial gates which allow the release from Lake Tana to be totally
controlled as long as the water level of the lake remains lower than the elevation of the spillway (1987
m amsl), the minimum operating level of the weir is 1784 m amsl. Continuous records of the lake
level at the weir of Chara-Chara are not collected by EELPA (Ethiopian Electric Light and Power
Authority). Only occasional measurements are made during visit of the weir (Kennedy and Donkin,
2003).
As shown in the Figure 4-4, the lake level varies approximately by 1.6 m annually with average lake
level of 1786.3 m between 1976 and 2006. Since the operation of the weir the lake level has dropped
dramatically reaching the historical minimum water level of 1784.46 m amsl at 6/30/2003. The
outflow data of the river recorded 5 km downstream of the weir shows that after weir operation starts
the natural flow of the river is disturbed.
The annual lake level-outflow relationship of the Lake Tana (Figure 4-5) shows that for outflow
discharge less than 125 m3/s the lake level-outflow relation is scattered, also relations change from
year to year. This possibly could be related with error in the rating curve for low flow and
sedimentation and vegetation in the river bed. For the discharge larger than 125 m 3/s lake level-
outflow shows a stable relationship.
38
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Table 4-2: Long-term average annual river flow of the major tributaries (1992-2003)
39
distance, simple kriging and ordinary kriging methods. Simple kriging method assumes that the
dataset has a stationary variance and a stationary mean value. Ordinary kriging method assumes that
the dataset has a stationary variance but also a non-stationary mean value within the search radius.
The performances of the interpolation methods are cross-validated to compare the accuracy of
interpolation methods. Comparison of different interpolation methods is done by dividing the
bathymetric datasets in to calibration dataset that has 4049 points and validation dataset that has 800
points (see Figure 4-6). The calibration data set is used to generate the bathymetric surface, and the
performance of the interpolation method is evaluated by comparing the interpolated values of the
validation dataset using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient R2.
1 __ 2
RMSE = ∑ D − D [4-3]
N
__
Where: D: Observed lake depth, D : Predicted lake depth and N: Number of samples
Figure 4-6: Calibration, validation and control points of bathymetric sample points
The semivariogram analysis was conducted to describe the spatial correlation of calibration sample
depth points to indicate the spatial correlation. The best fitting model was an exponential model with
nugget 0.6, sill 14 and range 8000 (see Figure 4-7).
40
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
1788
1786
Predicted dpeth m amsl
1784
1782
y = 1.0065x - 11.317
R2 = 0.9822
1780
1778
1776
1774
1772
1772 1774 1776 1778 1780 1782 1784 1786 1788
Observed dpeth m amsl
41
Table 4-3: Performance of bathymetric interpolation methods
For interpolation of the bathymetric survey that also includes the control points on the lake shore and
Island’s, a STRM DEM is imbedded to incorporate the landmass inside the lake and the flood plane
around the lake see Appendix E where cross-sections of the survey with and without control points are
shown. By this result area-volume and elevation-volume relationships are estimated using ArcGIS 3D
Analyst /Surface Analyst/ Area Volume Statistics Tool, the interpolated bathymetric model is sliced at
30 cm interval from the bottom of the lake and the respective volume, surface area and elevation are
calculated. The polynomial trend fitted elevation-volume and area-volume are compared to the
polynomial fitted Pietrangeli (1990) referred by (SMEC, 2007) (see Figure 4-9).
1770
3500
1772
3000 1774
1776
Elevation m amsl
1778
2
2500
Area km
1780
2000 1782
1784
1500 1786
1788
1000 1790
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
3
Volume Mm
Interpolated A-V Pietrangeli (1990) A-V Live storage
Interpolated E-V Pietrangeli (1990) E-V Live storage
Figure 4-9: Comparison of elevation-volume and area-volume relationship of Pietrangeli (1990) and the
results from this thesis work
The comparison is graphically shown in Figure 4-9. Results indicate that area-volume relations show a
large difference up to 1786 m amsl and the differences are generally narrowed at the live storage. The
Pietrangeli (1990) polynomial fitted relations indicate a linear pattern between area and volume while
the result from this thesis work does not indicate such linearity. The Pietrangeli (1990) survey does
not indicate the area-volume relation below 1778 m amsl and elevation-volume relations of the two
surveys appear to be parallel in the live storage. For the same elevation the Pietrangeli (1990) survey,
however, overestimates the lake volume. Pietrangeli (1990) bathymetry survey was conducted for a
total of 900 sample points and it seems that the survey is concentrated on the live storage only
42
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
whereas Kaba (2007) bathymetry survey was conducted for a total of 4424 sample points which is
more dense with a much better spatial representation. Due to this, the result from this thesis work is
able to capture the lake bathymetry at the deeper sections of the lake as well. The boxes on the figures
show the historical maximum and minimum water level between 1784.46 and 1788.02 m amsl.
A = 7.93 * 10 −11 (V) 3 − 5.81 * 10 −6 (V) 2 + 1.65 * 10 −1 (V) + 1147.51 R2 =0. 990 [4-7]
Where A: Lake surface area [km2], V: Lake volume [Mm3] and E: Elevation [m amsl].
The result of the bathymetric interpolation shows an average depth of 7.2m while the lake bottom is
very regular with low slope values that range from 0.001% to 0.11%. The central area that covers
some 25% of the total surface is characterized by average depth of some 12 m and an absolute
maximum depth of 14m that is observed at about 5 km from Deke Estifanos Island in the NNW
direction (see Figure 4-10).
Figure 4-10: Lake Tana depth contour map of 1 m interval measured from 1786.3m amsl
43
44
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
The result of catchment delineation shows a total of 10 major tributaries to the lake whereas only
seven of them are partially gauged and stations located on the north-west side of the lake Gabi Kura,
Derma and Tana West catchments are completely ungauged (see Figure 5-1). Even though in total
there are seventeen gauged catchments nine gauged catchments are selected as gauged catchments
based on availability of daily time series river flow data from 1992-2003 (see Figure 5-1).
Table 5-1: Major sub catchments of Lake Tana basin with respective gauged and ungauged areas
45
Figure 5-1: Lake Tana major tributaries and nine selected gauged catchments
46
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Catchments Addis Aykel Debre Enfranz Gondar Bahir Dangila Sekela Enjebara Chewahit
Zemen Tabor Dar
Gelda - - 0.23 - - 0.77 - - - -
Garno 0.13 - - 0.8 0.07 - - - - -
Gumero - - - 0.47 0.53 - - - - -
Koga - - - - - 0.38 0.39 - 0.23 -
Megech - 0.05 - 0.04 0.6 - - - - 0.31
Kelti - - - - - - 0.9 - 0.1 -
Gumara 0.15 - 0.67 0.09 - 0.09 - - - -
Gilgel Abay - - - - - - 0.42 0.26 0.32 -
Ribb 0.15 - 0.85 - - - - - - -
47
5
Long-term m onthly potential
4.5
evaporation m m /day
3.5
2.5
2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Table 5-4: Temperature and evaporation weights of meteorological stations in the catchments
In the simulations, the runoff data from 1992 to 2003 is divided in three, the first to warm-up the
model (1992), the second to calibrate the model (1993 to 2000) and the third to validate the model
(2001 to 2003). Model calibration results as shown in Table 5-5 indicate that model performance of
48
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Ribb, Gumara, Gilgel Abay, Megech and Kelti is satisfactory with a RVE smaller than +5% or −5%
and R2 greater than 0.6.
Table 5-5: Calibrated model parameters for gauged catchments including Hq (1993 - 2000)
Gilgel
Parameter Ribb Gumara Koga Megech Kelti Gelda Gumero Garno
Abay
Alfa 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0.9 1 1 1.1 0.8
Beta 1.8 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
FC 150 100 200 1000 800 1100 100 350 600
Hq 2.64 6.76 7.33 5.96 4.57 4.55 13.4 6.41 3.5
K4 0.006 0.02 0.02 0.007 0.01 0.002 0.02 0.001 0.003
KHQ 0.09 0.13 0.08 0.155 0.1 0.14 0.053 0.2 0.05
LP 0.62 1 0.95 0.42 0.38 0.24 1 0.7 0.85
PERC 0.26 0.65 0.52 1 0.1 0.4 0.52 0.01 0.36
NS [ - ] 0.76 0.72 0.85 0.56 0.64 0.68 0.38 0.19 0.09
RVE [%] 2.0 -4.55 -1.2 -6.74 2.54 -3.90 -17.01 14.01 18
For catchments with a relatively small area such as Koga (299.8km2), Gumero (164.9km2), Garno
(98.1km2) and Gelda (26.8Km2) the result of calibration was not satisfactory. As such it is assumed
that rainfall-runoff time series of those catchments cannot be considered trustworthy and that model
parameters of those catchments cannot be used for regionalisation. These river gauging stations, as
such, are not placed at the catchment outlet but at some location upstream that has easy road assess.
Time of concentration defined as the length of time it takes for water to travel from hydrologically
most remote point to the outlet was calculated to see the effect of manual daily gauging stations.
0.38
L * Lc
Tc = 0.7 * [5-1]
S 0.5
Where:
Tc: Time of concentration [hr], Lc: Distance from the outlet to the centre of the catchment [km], L:
Length of the main stream [km] and S: Slope of the maximum flow distance path (Dingman, 2002).
Table 5-6: Basin time of concentration for selected gauged catchments in Lake Tana Basin
Catchments Gelda Garno Gumero Koga Megech Gumara Gilgel Ribb Kelti
Abay
Tc [hr] 4.66 8.27 9.56 16.38 19. 49 30.15 28.64 32.63 24.29
Time of concentration of selected gauged catchments (Table 5-6) shows that smaller catchments
Gelda, Garno, Gumero and Koga catchments have a smaller time of concentration, which indicates the
difficulty of capturing the quick runoff on daily time step.
49
450
Observed Simulated
400
NS = 0.85
350
RVE = -1.2%
River flow m /s
300
3
250
200
150
100
50
0
1/1/93 5/16/94 9/28/95 2/9/97 6/24/98 11/6/99 3/20/01
Date
NS = 0.68
100
RVE = -3.9%
River flow m /s
3
75
50
25
0
1/1/98 1/2/99 1/3/00 1/3/01
Date
Figure 5-4: Model calibration result of Kelti catchment (1998-2001)
If the calibrated model parameter sets fail on the validation period the model is regarded unreliable
and so not usable. The model must be recalibrated with a new set of model parameters followed by
model validation until it satisfies calibration targets in terms of objective function values. Model
validation is done for catchments satisfying the objective function values of calibration period and the
result is show below (Table 5-7).
50
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
The model validation shows a better performance compared to the calibration period for Ribb and
Gumara catchments and lower performance for the remaining three catchments. The overall
assessment of the validation shows that in all catchments NS is greater than 0.6 which is reasonable
(good) performance and RVE less than -10% or +10% for all of the catchments which indicates also
good performance.
450
Observed Simulated
400
NS = 0.77
350
River flow m /s
RVE = -8.4%
300
3
250
200
150
100
50
0
1/1/01 1/2/02 1/3/03 1/4/04
Data
In rainfall-runoff modelling it is often not possible to find one unique best parameter set, different
parameter sets may give similar good results during calibration. In order to reduce uncertainty and to
define the optimum parameter set it is essential to do sensitivity analysis on model parameters. In
HBV IHMS model there are 7 model parameters controlling the total volume and shape of the
51
hydrograph. Sensitivity analysis of parameters is executed by dividing model parameter space into
sixteen equal intervals and simulating the model sixteen times for each of the parameters by changing
one parameter at a time. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters of Gilgel Abay catchment is
discussed below.
Sensitivity analysis of Alfa for a full parameter class shows a relative volume change of less than 1%
with a negligible Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient change (Figure 5-6).
0.838 4.5
Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient
0.832 3
0.829 2.25
0.826 1.5
0.823 0.75
0.82 0
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1
Alfa
Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient % Relative Volume Error
Simulation of Beta for a full parameter class shows a relative volume change of less than 10% with an
insignificant Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient change (Figure 5-7).
0.832 10
0.831 8
Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient
0.830 6
0.830 4
0.829 2
0.828 0
0.827 -2
0.826 -4
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Beta
FC has a broad parameter space (100-1500) and the sensitivity analysis shows less than 25% relative
volume change with a smaller Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient change for the full class parameter
simulation. K4 has a negligible relative volume and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient change for the full
parameter class simulation. KHQ for the full parameter class simulation it has less than 15% relative
volume error and high Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient change. LP has greater than 15% relative volume
change with insignificant Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient change (Figure 5-8). PERC shape controlling
parameter has a negligible relative volume error with a moderate Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient change.
52
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Therefore the parameters FC, LP and KHQ are classified as highly sensitive and parameters PERC
and Beta as sensitive while K4 and Alfa are considered as non sensitive parameters (see Appendix H
sensitivity analysis of FC, PERC, K4 and KHQ).
0.85 7
0.84
Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient
0.82
-3
0.81
-8
0.8
0.79
-13
0.78
0.77 -18
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Lp
By the sequential change of parameter values the prior parameter space is narrowed and minimum and
maximum values of simulated catchment parameters are listed in Appendix H.
To optimize the simple relationship of PCCs and model parameters the significance and strength of
the relation has to be tested. The significance test of the correlation was done by t-test (Eqn. [5-2]).
Since the number of observation is less than 30 (Bernstein and Bernstein, 1999), the relationship will
be tested for null hypothesis which states that the two variables are independent and the specific-
hypothesis which states that correlation between these two variables is not zero. The simplest formula
53
for computing the appropriate t value to test significance of a correlation coefficient employs the t
distribution (Davis, 2002).
t cor = r
(n − 2)
(1 − r )
2
[5-2]
Where:
tcor : is t value of the correlation, r : is correlation coefficient, n : is sample size.
54
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Table 5-8: Correlation between physical catchment characteristics and model parameters
To test the hypothesis the critical value of t-test has to be calculated, traditionally, experimenters have
used either the 0.05 level (sometimes called the 5% level) or the 0.1 level (10% level), although the
choice of levels is largely subjective. In this study a significance level of α = 0.1 for a two tailed test
with n-2 degree of freedom is used, tct = 2.353 (critical value from t distribution table). Solving Eqn.
[5-2] for tcor = tcr ,r = 0.80 where a correlation coefficient greater than 0.80 will be a significant at 90
% level of confidence.
The correlation matrix analysis shows 11 significant relations between PCCs and model parameters
out of 200 correlations significant relations are indicated with asterisks. All volume controlling
parameters (FC, LP and Beta) have at least one significant relation with catchment parameters, where
as from shape controlling parameters quick flow shape controlling parameter Alfa and baseflow shape
controlling parameter K4 have no significant correlation with the catchment characteristics.
55
Multiple Regression Analysis
To optimize the linear single relation, multiple regression analysis with forward selection or backward
removal method has been executed. Multiple regression is used to predict model parameters from
several independent catchment characteristics. Optimization of catchment characteristics will be by
avoiding catchment characteristics that are highly correlated. Correlations between catchment
characteristics are available in Appendix I. The R2 is not the only measure to rely on but also
significance of the relation has to be tested. Significance of multiple regression equations can be
tested by a test of significance of individual coefficients or by a test of overall significance.
If Tcr > Tcal Ho, specific is accepted for the specific regression coefficients:
If Tcr < Tcal H1, specific is accepted for the specific regression coefficients:
Tcr is critical t-value determined from t-table (Kohler, 1994) depending on the degree of freedom (n-
m-1 where n is number of samples and m is number independent variables)
Tcal is t-value of the relation which is available in the ANOVA table.
A test of the overall significance of regression, rather than a test of individual coefficients, amounts
to testing the hypothesis that all the true regression coefficients are zero and that, therefore, none of
the independent variables helps explain the variation of the dependant one. Overall significance of
correlation coefficient is established with the help of F-test.
Ho: β 1=0,β 2 =0, β3=0… β n= 0 all the regression coefficients of model parameters and physical
catchment characteristics is zero (null hypothesis),
H1: β 1 ≠ 0, β 2 ≠ 0, β 3 ≠ 0 … β n ≠ 0 all the regression coefficients of model parameters and physical
catchment chrematistics are not zero (specific-hypothesis reject the null hypothesis).
If Fcr > Fcal the null hypothesis is accepted (parameter is not associated with catchment characteristics
in the population)
If Fcr < Fcal null hypothesis is rejected (parameter is associated with catchment characteristics in the
population)
Where
Fcr is critical T-value determined from F-table (Kohler, 1994) depending on the denominator, degree
of freedom (n-m-1 where n number of samples and m number independent variables)
56
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
A number of relations have been established for all parameters including Hq yet, it is essential that the
regional model to be used should statistically and should have plausible hydrological meaning. The
following relations are selected based on the above criteria.
Alfa
Alfa is a measure of non-linearity of the upper reservoir to transfer excess water from the soil
moisture zone as quick flow. In literature it is indicated that small catchments with steep hills and low
permeable soils will generally result more non-linearity in the fast flow mechanisms than large sub-
basins with flat terrains and high permeable soils (Booij, 2005). Deckers (2006) did not found any
significant simple relation with Alfa, after applying backward removal method he found negative
relation with elevation, a positive relation with hypsometric integral and low permeability.
In this study Alfa has no significant relation with any of PCCs considered. The highest correlation is
established with average altitude with strength of R2 56.2%. Since there is no significant relation,
optimization of the linear relation with forward entry is ignored and a backward entry method is used
by avoiding highly correlated catchment characteristics.
The result of backward removal optimization shows two potential multiple regression equations where
Alfa 1 is correlated to percentage of bare land and percentage of hilly and where Alfa 2 is correlated
to Average altitude and percentage of bare land. Alfa 1 and Alfa 2 have R2 of 85% and 87%
respectively with the overall significance of the relations is 85%.
Table 5-9: Statistical characteristics of Alfa regression equation
Beta
Based on Seibert (1999) catchment area and Beta are positively correlated. According to (Merz and
Blöschl, 2004) beta is negatively related to elevation and topographic slope. In this study Beta has a
significant positive correlation with catchment area and optimization of the correlation is done by the
forward entry method. The optimization of area indicates two satisfactory regression equations with
percentage of Hilly and percentage luvisols with strong relation R2 of 84% and 75% respectively, the
overall significance of the relation is 85% and 75% respectively. The first relation shows that for a
large catchment with smaller percentage of hilly (8% to 30% slope) more precipitation will contribute
to runoff rather than filling the soil moisture. The second relation shows for larger catchments with
57
smaller percentage of luvisols that has medium to high storage capacity for water and nutrients that
more precipitation will contribute to runoff rather than filling the soil moisture.
Table 5-10: Statistical characteristics of Beta regression equation
FC
FC is the maximum soil moisture storage capacity in the model [mm] which is related to soil
properties such as the soil moisture content, the porosity and the soil depth (Booij, 2005). FC values
can be estimated based on soil type and the rooting depth of the predominant vegetation and can
further be refined in the calibration process (Hundecha and Bardossy, 2004). Small values of FC
indicate a shallow hydrologically active soil, which may be related to catchments covered by
impermeable soil where porous aquifers increase the storage capacity of the catchments.
Previous studies show that FC is correlated with climate, geological, geographical and hydrological
conditions of the basin (Zhang and Lindstrom, 1997). FC has a positive correlation with porous
aquifers and tends to increase the storage capacity of a catchment (Merz and Blöschl, 2004).
According to Seibert (1999) FC has a strong relation with lake percentage.
In this study FC has significant simple relations with catchment area (-0.88), length of longest flow
path (-0.83) and average elevation of catchments (-0.94). The effect of area and length of longest
flow path can be explained as, for larger catchments the travel time for the water to reach the outlet
will increase while storage capacity also increases but in this study a negative relation is observed
which could not be explained. The effect of average elevation of the catchment can be explained by
its high correlation with slope that cause the water will find its way to a stream quicker and thus be
drained from the catchment more quickly. FC has a positive significant relation with Hypsometric
integral (0.81) and percentage of vertisols (0.81). The effect of hypsometric integral can be explained
as, as percentage of total relief increases then it will have less hydrologically active soil depth but in
this study a positive relation is established which cannot be explained.
Optimization of the above single relation is achieved by forward entry method and shows significant
relations with catchment area and percentage of hilly with a statistically strong relation R2 of 96%
with overall significance of 95 % (Table 5-11). The regression equation for FC shows for a large
catchment with high percentage of hilly slope (8% to 30%) the water will travel quickly to reach the
outlet and it will have shallow hydrologically active soil decreasing the storage capacity of soil.
58
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
K4
K4 is the recession coefficient for lower response box, describes the recession of the baseflow so that
the slope of it is correct. K4 is highly correlated with forest percentage and percentage of lake
(Seibert, 1999). According to Hundecha (2004) the recession coefficient for the lower response box is
sensitive to soil type, land use, size and slope of catchment. In this study K4 has no significant
relation with any of catchment characteristics studied. Optimization of the simple relation is done by
backward removal technique, statistically strong relation is established with R2 of 98% with overall
significance level of 95% (Table 5-12).
PERC
PERC is negatively related to river network density, that in catchments with few streams a larger
portion of water penetrates deep into the subsurface than is the case for catchments with a large river
network density (Merz and Blöschl, 2004). Percolation is sensitive to soil type (Hundecha and
Bardossy, 2004). With respect to PERC in this study a single significant relation is established with
percentage of luvisols, optimization of the relation is done by forward entry method a statistically
strong relation is established R2 of 80% with log(percentage of bare land), the relation shows an
overall significance level of 80% (Table 5-13).
Luvisoils have a medium to high storage capacity and are well aerated which have positively related
to PERC. Bare land has a negative relation with PERC in a sense that as the percentage of bare land
increases the resistance to stop the momentum of the flowing water decreases and as such percolation
will decreases.
Table 5-13: Statistical characteristics of PERC regression equation
59
KHQ
According to Seibert (1999) the strongest correlation was found between lake percentage and KHQ
while Merz and Blöschl (2004) found that catchment area and altitude of catchments have a negative
relation with the recession coefficient for upper response box. In this study KHQ has a significant
relation with average slope of catchment and percentage of Vertisols. As the slope of a catchment
increases the response of the catchment will in theory be quicker but in this study a negative relation
is observed and optimization of average slope of catchment and percentage of vertisols shows
unsatisfactory result. Optimization is done by the backward removal method and result shows a
statistical strong relation with area and percentage of luvisols with R2 of 91% and overall significance
of 90% (Table 5-14). It shows that smaller catchments result in higher peaks and more dynamic
response in the hydrograph than larger catchments that have longer travel times.
Table 5-14: Statistical characteristics of KHQ regression equation
LP
LP is limit for potential evaporation, where a soil moisture value above which evapotranspiration
reaches its potential value, at soil moisture below LP the actual evaporation reduced linearly to zero to
a completely dry soil moisture condition. Parameter LP is the fraction of FC above which potential
evapotranspiration occurs. It is assumed to be dependent on the volumetric soil moisture content at
wilting point, field capacity and on the soil porosity to account for the dependency of LP on FC
(Booij, 2005).
The correlation table shows a significant relation between LP and catchment area, optimization with
percentage of bare land results a statically strong relation with R2 of 83% with overall significance
level of 90% (Table 5-15). The regression equation shows as catchment area increases with decreases
in percentage of bare land the limit for potential evaporation will increase. This indicates for a large
catchment covered by vegetation the water will percolate downwards and the catchment will be wetter
and will be faster to attain potential evaporation than smaller bare catchments.
Hq
Hq is a parameter calculated by Eqn. [3-19] for the observed discharge. For ungauged catchments
where there is no river flow data estimation of Hq will be impossible. To estimate the value of Hq a
regression is made by forward entry method starting with the only significant relation percentage of
bare land, the result shows statistically strong R2 of 90% with overall significance level of 90%.
60
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
NS RVE
Catchments Alfa Beta FC K4 PERC KHQ LP Hq
[-] [%]
Gilgel Abay 0.95 1.85 116 0.021 0.56 0.053 0.99 7.74 0.78 -5.1
Ribb 0.50 1.49 284 0.006 0.32 0.066 0.77 2.95 0.75 -8.69
Gumara 0.65 1.30 122 0.019 0.50 0.067 0.71 5.87 0.81 -8.84
Megech 0.93 1.00 761 0.010 0.09 0.098 0.48 5.07 0.65 -9.85
Kelti 0.96 1.18 1102 0.002 0.49 0.147 0.24 4.21 0.61 -8.66
61
Figure 5-9: Lake Tana ungauged catchments
Model parameters of ungauged catchments are established based on five different methods that are:
Regionalization: the regional model established and validated in the previous section is used to
establish model parameters of ungauged catchments. Catchment characteristics of ungauged
catchments are available in Appendix J.
Spatial proximity: Parameters of gauged catchments are transferred to the nearby ungauged
catchment based on the assumption that catchments that are close to each other are highly
homogenous with respect to topography and climate properties and as such will likely have a similar
runoff regime as climate and catchment conditions will only vary smoothly in space (Merz and
Blöschl, 2004). Ungauged catchments located downstream of gauged catchments will get the
parameter of the gauged catchment upstream and catchments which are not gauged at all or failed to
be simulated within the objective function target, they will get the model parameters from the nearby
catchment. Figure 5-10 shows the parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments based on
spatial proximity.
62
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Ungauged Megech
Figure 5-10: Parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments by spatial proximity
Area ratio: Parameter set of gauged catchments are transferred to ungauged catchments of
comparable area based on the assumption that catchment area is the dominant factor controlling the
volume of water that can be generated from the rainfall. In the simulated catchment it is observed that
annual average runoff from 1992 to 2003 and catchment area are correlated with R2 of 72%. Figure 5-
11 shows parameter transfer by area ratio.
63
Ungauged Megech
Default and default plus average of sensitive parameters: According to Deckers (2006) who
conducted a study in England and Wales, implementing default values at the ungauged catchment in
some cases favours implementing the regional model. In this study default parameter sets are used for
all of 11 ungauged catchments but also default parameter set are modified by substituting average
sensitive parameters (FC, LP and KHQ) of the simulated catchments.
Table 5-18: Default and default plus average of sensitive parameter sets
Using the parameter estimates of the above procedures, runoff from ungauged catchment is simulated
by the HBV IHMS model. The result of long-term monthly averaged flow from 1992 to 2003 shows
that runoff estimates by default parameter set is highest followed by parameter transfer by spatial
proximity and result of the regionalization is the list estimate. The results of daily estimation of each
procedure are accumulated Figure 5-12 shows the long-term total runoff estimates from ungauged
catchments.
64
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
700.0
600.0
500.0
River flow (m /s)
3
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Regionalisation Default plus Avg. Fc, Khq and Lp Area ratio Spatial proximity Default parameter set
Figure 5-12: Comparison of long-term average monthly runoff estimates from ungauged catchments
(1992-2003)
65
66
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
6. Water balance
After estimation of the lake water balance components a spreadsheet water balance model is
developed. The model is developed to calculate the inflow and outflow components separately in
terms of volume. The initial volume and area of the lake is simply defined by fixing the initial value to
an observed lake level. In the model both evaporation and rainfall are defined as a function of the lake
surface area that is updated in response to the inflows and outflows. A schematic on the balance
model is shown in Figure 6-1.
Where:
VLake(i) -Lake total volume at day i
VLake(i-1) -Lake volume at day i-1; and
∆S(i) -Change in storage at day i.
= (P + SI Ungauged + SI Gauged ) − (E o + So )
∆S
[6-2]
∆T
67
Daily river Daily river
Daily lake Daily open
inflow of inflow of Daily river
areal water
gauged ungauged outflow
rainfall evaporation
catchments catchments
Compute Compute
total inflow total outflow
m3 m3
Compute
change in
storage
Total storage
Area-Volume Volume-Elevation
relationship relationship
Computation Box
Result
Figure 6-1: Simplified flow chart of spreadsheet lake water balance model
68
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
1788.75
1788
Lake level (m am sl)
1787.25
1786.5
1785.75
1785
1/1/95 1/2/96 1/2/97 1/3/98 1/4/99 1/5/00 1/5/01
Date
Observed The result from this thesis work Pietrangeli (1990)
Figure 6-2: Comparison of lake level simulations of Pietrangeli (1990) bathymetry and the results from
this thesis work
The most uncertain component of Lake Tana water balance is the runoff from ungauged catchments.
The runoff from ungauged catchment estimated in five different methods was simulated using the
result of this thesis work interpolated bathymetry (Figure 6-3) the result shows best performance by
regionalization and worst performance by default parameter set.
69
1791
1790
Lake level (m amsl)
1789
1788
1787
1786
1785
1/1/95 1/2/96 1/2/97 1/3/98 1/4/99 1/5/00 1/5/01
Date
Regionalisation Spatial proximity
Area ratio Default paramter set
Default paramter plus average FC, Khq and LP Observed
Figure 6-3: Comparison of lake level simulation in different ungauged flow estimation techniques
For the approaches of spatial proximity, area ratio comparison, default parameter set and default
parameter combined with average of sensitive parameter approaches, the lake level simulation shows
larger deviation from the observed lake levels as shown in Figure 6-3. Also it is indicated that
deviations increase over the simulation period. Table 6-1 shows the performance of lake level
simulations based on the different approaches to estimate ungauged inflows. Lake level simulation by
regionalization indicates a misfit for the dry period where the simulated is overestimated. This
indicates that too little water is released in the model calculations that possible could be by an under
estimation of open water evaporation, over estimation of lake areal rainfall and/or erroneous outflow
estimations. The latter can be substantiated by the rating curve that is unstable for low flows (see
Figure 4-2).
Table 6-1: Performance indicators of lake level simulation (1995 - 2001)
Lake level simulation using regionalisation shows best performance with NS of 0.9 and RVE of 1.6%.
Therefore only the results from regionalisation are used in the Lake Tana water balance simulations.
In Table 6-2 Lake Tana water balance components are shown and indicate that the balance closure
term is as large as 170 mm.
70
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Table 6-2: Lake Tana water balance components simulated from 1995 to 2000
The closure term indicates a water balance error as large as 5% of the total lake inflow and a lake
relative volumetric error of only 1.6%. It assume that errors are by the uncertain lake-groundwater
interaction and some uncertainty to be associated with estimations of open water evaporation, lake
areal rainfall, runoff from gauged and ungauged catchments.
Sensitivity of the lake level is done by increasing or decreasing the model inputs by 5% on the lake
areal rainfall, gauged river inflow, ungauged river inflow, open water evaporation, Lake Basin areal
rainfall and river outflow (ungauged plus gauged river inflow). Sensitivity analysis of basin areal
rainfall is done by increasing lake areal rainfall by inflows of gauged and ungauged river flows. To
consider the rainfall change in the river inflow, all gauged and ungauged HBV models will be
simulated by changing the precipitation correction factor parameter Pcorr of HBV model in a total of
16 catchments (5 gauged and 11 ungauged catchments).
1790
1789
Average lake level (m amsl)
1788
1787
1786
1785
1784
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
% Change
71
The result of lake level sensitivity analysis shows that lake level is most sensitive to inflow term of
basin areal rainfall and outflow terms of open water evaporation. For a 5% increase in areal rainfall
on the basin the lake level will increase by 52 cm and for 5% decrease in areal rainfall of the basin the
lake level will decrease by 55 cm. For 5% increase in open water evaporation the lake level will
decrease by 22 cm and increase by 22 cm for 5% decrease in open water evaporation.
Sensitivity of the lake level shows a linear relation between a 10% increase and decrease for the
inflow terms lake areal rainfall, gauged river inflows and ungauged river inflows. A linear relation is
also shown for the outflow term open water evaporation for a 5% increase and decrease. A non linear
relation is shown for basin rainfall and the total river inflow.
72
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
7.1. Conclusion
In this study daily water balance of Lake Tana was simulated giving due emphasizing for ungauged
river inflows. River flow from ungauged catchment is estimated by transferring model parameters of
gauged catchments by regionalization, spatial proximity and area ration in addition default parameter
set of HBV model and default parameter set combined with average of highly sensitive model
parameters. Based on the study conducted the following conclusions are drawn.
In the Lake Tana Basin there are 17 river gauging stations covering 47% of the area, where 9 of
them have continuous river flow data from 1992 to 2003. Out of these nine gauged rivers that
cover 39% of the basin only five of them have representative river flow data that only have been
simulated with a reasonable performance RVE smaller than +5% or −5% and NS greater than 0.6
the area covers only 32% of Lake Tana Basin contributing on average 3970 MCM/year from
1995 to 2000.
The area-volume and elevation-volume relations extracted from the bathymetric row data
collected by Kaba (2007) has been modified by including 455 control points around the lake
shore and islands boundary. Results are compared to the previous study conducted by Studio
Pietrangeli (1990) referred by (SMEC, 2007) and showed an increased performance of lake level
simulation for NS that changed from 89 to 0.9 and for RVE that changed from 1.85% to 1.6%.
River flow from ungauged catchments are estimated by regionalization, spatial proximity,
catchment area ratio, default parameter set of HBV model and default parameter set plus average
of highly sensitive parameters of simulated catchments. The result of ungauged flow simulation
shows contributions of 55% of the total river inflow by the default parameter set, 47.5% by
spatial proximity simulation, 46.4% by area ratio simulation, 45.4% by default parameter set
with average of sensitive model parameters (FC, KHQ and LP) and 41% by regionalization.
Simulation of lake level shows a satisfactory performance compared to the observed lake level
for ungauged catchment parameters estimated by regionalization with 1.6% of relative volume
error and 0.9 Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients. The result of water balance simulation shows areal
rainfall of 1220mm/year, gauged river inflow of 1280mm/year from Gilgel Abay, Megech,
Gumara, Ribb and Kelti rivers, river inflow from ungauged catchments of 880mm/year, river
outflow of 1520mm/year, open water evaporation of 1690mm/year. By lake level simulations a
closure term of 170mm/year is defined. The water balance closure is some 5% of the total annual
lake inflow by rainfall and river inflows.
Sensitivity analysis shows the lake level to be sensitive to all water balance components and
most sensitive to inflow term basin areal rainfall and outflow term lake evaporation.
73
7.2. Recommendation
To further enhance the results of lake level simulation and regionalization the following
recommendations are formulated:
It has been observed that rainfall on the island and south shore of the lake is very high
compared with stations located in the north shore of the lake and it is assumed the lake by itself
is able to create its own rainfall by lake breezing effect. This indicates that land-based rainfall
estimation is not representative of rainfall over the lake. In order to derive a better
representation on lake areal rainfall it will be better to apply satellite data to estimate areal
rainfall of the lake.
Some of the gauging stations are located close to the main road for the purpose of easy access
and are not located on the outlet and as such a large portion of the catchment is downstream of
gauging stations. Traditionally manual daily gauging stations have to be positioned by
considering the time of concentration to observe the peak flow, else the flow data recorded will
not be representative for further study.
Lake level simulations shows a miss match on dry seasons which can be an indication of
surface and groundwater interaction, therefore a further study has to be initiated on the lake-
groundwater interaction.
It is observed that HBV model parameters Alfa and K4 have negligible effect on the shape and
volume of the hydrograph. For regionalization study those parameters can be kept as default or
constant.
74
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
References:
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Wabi Shebele River Basin, East Africa, Tropentag Bonn, University of Siegen, Germany.
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Bernstein, S. and R. Bernstein (1999). Elements of statistics II, Mcgraw hill companies/mcgraw-hill.
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A case study from the south Ecuadorian Andes." Journal of Hydrology 329(3-4): 413-421.
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Hill.
Conway, D. (1997). "A water balance model of the Upper Blue Nile in Ethiopia." Hydrological
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Heuvelmans, G., B. Muys and J. Feyen (2006). "Regionalisation of the parameters of a hydrological
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319(1-4): 245-265.
Huber, U. M. and H. K. M. Bugmann (2005). Global change and Mountain Regions: an overview of
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Kennedy, R. and Donkin (2003). Tis Abay II Hydropower Project. Final feasibility report.
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management." Water Resource Enschede, ITC MSc
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January 15th conf. Hydrology (AMS, Long Beach, California, USA), 103-106.
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Vallet-Coulomb, C., D. Legesse, F. Gasse, Y. Travi, et al. (2001). "Lake evaporation estimates in
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77
78
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Annexes
79
Appendix A: List of Acronmys
Alfa Parameter defining the non-linearity of the quick runoff reservoir in the HBV model
ANOVA Analysis of variance
Beta Parameter in soil moisture routine in the HBV model
DEM Digital elevation model
EA Actual evapotranspiration in the HBV model
EELPA Ethiopian electric light and power authority
EMA Ethiopian meteorological agency
EMWR Ethiopian ministry of water resources
EP Potential evapotranspiration
ESUN Band dependent mean solar exoatmospheric irradiance
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
F-test Value which indicates the significance level of the regression equation
FC Parameter defining the maximum soil moisture storage in the HBV model
GPS Global positioning system
HBV Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (Hydrological Bureau Water balance
section)
Hq Parameter representing the high flow rate in the HBV model
KHQ Parameter representing a recession coefficient at a corresponding reservoir volume
in the HBV model
K4 Recession coefficient for lower response box
LP parameter defining a limit where above the actual evapotranspiration reaches the
measured potential evapotranspiration in the HBV model
PERC Percolation from upper to the lower response box [mm/day]
PUB Prediction in Ungauged Basins
SHMI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrologic Institute
SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
T-test Statistical hypothesis test in which the test statistic has a Student's t distribution if
the null hypothesis is true
R2 Coefficient of determination
RVE Relative volume error
NS Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient
80
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
81
Appendix C: Albedo calculation from landsat ETM+
1. Radiometric calibration
Radiometric calibration is used to assign a physical meaning to the digital value of each pixel, by
relating it to a reference value called radiance at the top of the atmosphere (expressed in W.m-2.sr-
1
.mm-1) by means of an absolute calibration coefficients.
L maxλ − L minλ
L λ = * (DN − QCAL min ) + L minλ
QCAL max − QCAL min
Lminλ: is minimum radiance (in Wm-2sr-1µm-1), Lmaxλ: is maximum radiance (in Wm-2sr-1µm-1),
QCALmax: is maximum DN value possible 255, QCALmin: is minimum DN value possible 0 or 1 and
DN : is digital number of each pixel in the image
LMAX , LMIN and ESUN values for Landsat 7 ETM+ (dated 09/12/1999, 10/23/1999 and 11/15/1999)
Measured Energy L λ πd 2
ρ= ρ=
Incomming Energy ESUN λ Cosθ z
82
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
L λ : is minimum radiance (in Wm-2sr-1µm-1), d2: is Earth-sun Distance (AU) 0.97 to 1.03 /1.01/, θ z :
is solar zenith angle and ESUNλ: is band dependant exoatmospheric irradiance (in Wm-2sr-1µm-1)
3. Atmospheric correction
The remote sensing from satellite or airborne platform of land or sea surface in visible and near
infrared is strongly affected by the presence of atmosphere on the sun-target-sensor path (Vermote
and Tanre, 1997). The objective of atmospheric correction is to retrieve the surface reflectance (that
characterizes the surface properties) from remotely sensed imagery by removing the atmospheric
effects. Atmospheric correction has been shown to significantly improve the accuracy of image
classification. The 6S (second simulation of the satellite signal in the solar spectrum), code enables
simulation of the above problem; where the code predicts the satellite signal from 0.25 to 4.0 microns
assuming cloudless atmosphere. The main atmospheric effects (gaseous absorption by water vapor,
carbon dioxide, oxygen and ozone; scattering by molecules and aerosols) are taken into account.
Applying atmospheric correction on the top of atmosphere reflectance the ground surface narrow band
albedo will be determined. Broadband surface albedo can be computed from surface reflectance value
of landsat band 1, 3 to 5 and 7 narrow band surface reflectance as shown in Equation [3-18] (Liang,
2001).
α = 0.356α1 + 0.13α 3 + 0.373α 4 + 0.085α 5 + 0.072α 7 − 0.0018
6S4U is pre-processor software developed for this study; it is used to prepare text input data for 6S
atmospheric model can be accessed on http://www2.webng.com/bahirdarab/ page.
83
Interface of 6S4U pre-processor software.
Atmospheric Model: tropical model atmosphere to read pressure, temperature, water vapour and
ozone concentrations as a function of the altitude. at approximately 23°30' (23.5°) N latitude , and the
Tropic of Capricorn in the southern hemisphere at 23°30' (23.5°) S latitude.
Aerosol model: aerosols act to scatter and/or absorb solar and terrestrial radiation. Maritime model
Visibility:
Visibility at Bahir Dar station
Date 09/12/1999 10/23/1999 11/15/1999
Visibility km 15 24 28
84
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
85
Long-term monthly lake areal rainfall map (1992-2003)
86
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
87
Appendix F: General procedure to obtain relevant information from DEM
General procedure to obtain relevant hydrological information from SRTM DEM
DEM
Out puts Action
Or manual
Input of the Drainage map
Threshold value Drainage Network Extracts basic drainage
Extraction network based on the
threshold value.
Drainage network
Minimum Drainage segment map
length
Catchment will be
Catchment
Use outlet location Polygon map calculated for each stream
Catchment found in the output map of
Point map
Extraction the drainage network order
map
Catchment Raster
map
Use stream order
Shreve or Strahler
Merges adjacent
order Catchment
catchments, as found by the
Catchment attribute table.
merge catchments extraction
operation
Attribute and Segment
network map on the
merged Catchment
Process
88
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
Average % Urban
Sub Climate % Bare % Crop % % Grass % Woody
Altitude and Built-
Catchments index Land Land Forest Land Savannah
m amsl Up
Gilgel Abay 1.39 2673.0 0.04 71.1 1.71 7.73 19.4 0.03
Ribb AZ 1.13 2914.0 1.79 70.5 1.06 15.28 11.3 0.07
Gumara 1.05 2721.0 0.53 71.1 0.81 10.17 17.3 0.07
Megech 0.79 2416.0 0.24 79.6 2.42 14.67 1.9 1.15
Kelti 1.22 2234.0 0.68 69.7 0.62 2.33 26.6 0.06
Koga 1.30 2427.0 0.02 68.7 1.20 15.86 14.2 0.01
Gumero 0.76 2363.0 1.56 78.4 2.34 11.23 6.3 0.10
Garno 0.75 2351.0 2.14 42.2 2.63 43.34 9.3 0.31
Gelda 0.76 2246.0 0.84 74.4 1.23 5.42 18.0 0.09
89
Appendix H: Sensitivity analysis of HBV model parameters and optimum
parameter space
0.9 10 0.9 2
0.8
5 1.5
N a s h -S u tc liffe C o e ffic ie n t
0.75
N as h -S u tc liffe C o efficien t
% R e la tiv e V o lu m e E rr o r
% R e la tiv e V o lu m e E rro r
0.7
0 1
0.6 0.6
0.5 -5 0.5
0.45
0.4 -10 0
0.3 0.3
-15 -0.5
0.2
0.15 -1
-20
0.1
0 -25 0 -1.5
100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 0.01 0.76 1.51 2.26 3.01 3.76 4.51 5.26 6.01
FC Perc
Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient % Relative volume error Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient % Relative volume error
2 0.8 4
Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient
% R elative V o lu m e E rro r
0.8256 1.5 0.7 2
0.6 0
1
0.5 -2
0.8248 0.5
0.4 -4
0
0.3 -6
0.824 -0.5
0.2 -8
-1 0.1 -10
90
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
91
Appendix I: Correlation of catchment characteristics
% of Luvisols
% of Leptosols
% of Nitisols
% of Vertisols
% of Fluvisols
Elongation Ration
Climate index
Average Altitude m amsl
% Bare Land
% Crop Land
% Forest 1.00
% Grass Land 0.52 1.00
% Woody Savannah -0.77 -0.91 1.00
% Urban and Built-Up 0.82 0.50 -0.82 1.00
92
HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE OF LAKE TANA
93
Appendix K: Area-volume and elevation-volume relation comparison of
Pietrangeli (1990), Kaba (2007) and the result from this thesis work
1795
1790
Elevation (m amsl)
1785
1780
1775
1770
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Volume (MCM)
Kaba (2007) Pietrangeli (1990) This thesis work
Elevation-volume relation comparison of Pietrangeli (1990), Kaba (2007) and the result from this
thesis work
3400
3000
2600
Area km2
2200
1800
1400
1000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Volume Mm 3
Area-volume relation comparison of Pietrangeli (1990), Kaba (2007) and the result from this thesis
work
94