Professional Documents
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Fomc Minutes 20180926
Fomc Minutes 20180926
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A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Simon Potter, Manager, System Open Market Account
and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of
the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Lorie K. Logan, Deputy Manager, System Open
in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 25, 2018, Market Account
at 2:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, Septem-
ber 26, 2018, at 9:00 a.m. 1 Ann E. Misback, Secretary, Office of the Secretary,
Board of Governors
PRESENT:
Jerome H. Powell, Chairman Matthew J. Eichner, 2 Director, Division of Reserve
John C. Williams, Vice Chairman Bank Operations and Payment Systems, Board of
Thomas I. Barkin Governors; Andreas Lehnert, Director, Division of
Raphael W. Bostic Financial Stability, Board of Governors
Lael Brainard
Richard H. Clarida Jennifer L. Burns, Deputy Director, Division of
Loretta J. Mester Supervision and Regulation, Board of Governors;
Randal K. Quarles Rochelle M. Edge, Deputy Director, Division of
Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Michael T.
James Bullard, Charles L. Evans, Esther L. George, Kiley, Deputy Director, Division of Financial
Eric Rosengren, and Michael Strine, Alternate Stability, Board of Governors
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee
Jon Faust, Senior Special Adviser to the Chairman,
Patrick Harker, Robert S. Kaplan, and Neel Kashkari, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors
Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of
Philadelphia, Dallas, and Minneapolis, respectively Antulio N. Bomfim, Special Adviser to the Chairman,
Office of Board Members, Board of Governors
Mark A. Gould, First Vice President, Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco Joseph W. Gruber and John M. Roberts, Special
Advisers to the Board, Office of Board Members,
James A. Clouse, Secretary Board of Governors
Matthew M. Luecke, Deputy Secretary
David W. Skidmore, Assistant Secretary Linda Robertson, Assistant to the Board, Office of
Michelle A. Smith, Assistant Secretary Board Members, Board of Governors
Mark E. Van Der Weide, General Counsel
Michael Held, Deputy General Counsel Eric M. Engen, Joshua Gallin, and Michael G.
Steven B. Kamin, Economist Palumbo, Senior Associate Directors, Division of
Thomas Laubach, Economist Research and Statistics, Board of Governors;
David W. Wilcox, Economist Christopher J. Erceg, Senior Associate Director,
Division of International Finance, Board of
David Altig, Kartik B. Athreya, Thomas A. Connors, Governors
Mary C. Daly, David E. Lebow, Trevor A. Reeve,
William Wascher, and Beth Anne Wilson, Ellen E. Meade, Edward Nelson, and Joyce K. Zickler, 3
Associate Economists Senior Advisers, Division of Monetary Affairs,
Board of Governors; Jeremy B. Rudd, Senior
1 The Federal Open Market Committee is referenced as the 2 Attended through the discussion of developments in finan-
“FOMC” and the “Committee” in these minutes. cial markets and open market operations.
3 Attended opening remarks for Tuesday session only.
Page 2 Federal Open Market Committee
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Adviser, Division of Research and Statistics, Board Developments in Financial Markets and Open Mar-
of Governors ket Operations
The manager of the System Open Market Account
David López-Salido, Associate Director, Division of (SOMA) discussed U.S. and global financial develop-
Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Stacey ments. In global markets, strains in emerging market
Tevlin, Associate Director, Division of Research economies (EMEs) contributed to volatility in currency
and Statistics, Board of Governors and equity markets over the period. In addition, con-
cerns about trade tensions between the United States
Eric C. Engstrom, Deputy Associate Director, Division and China were the focus of a great deal of attention
of Monetary Affairs, and Adviser, Division of among market participants. Such concerns led the
Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Shanghai Composite index to drop as much as 8 percent
at one point over the intermeeting period before recov-
Penelope A. Beattie, 4 Assistant to the Secretary, Office ering somewhat. The renminbi, however, was relatively
of the Secretary, Board of Governors stable, reportedly in part because investors believed that
Chinese authorities were prepared to take measures to
Jeffrey Huther, Section Chief, Division of Monetary counter significant renminbi depreciation.
Affairs, Board of Governors
Regarding domestic financial markets, the manager
noted that U.S. equity markets had posted strong gains,
David H. Small, Project Manager, Division of
spurred by optimism regarding the U.S. economic out-
Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
look and rising corporate earnings. Longer-term Treas-
ury yields moved higher, and market-based measures of
Benjamin K. Johannsen, Senior Economist, Division of
the expected path of the funds rate edged up. According
Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
to the Open Market Desk’s Survey of Primary Dealers
and Survey of Market Participants, a 25 basis point in-
Achilles Sangster II, Information Management Analyst,
crease in the target range for the federal funds rate at the
Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
September meeting was widely expected; moreover, in-
vestors appeared to be placing high odds on a further
Gregory L. Stefani, First Vice President, Federal
quarter-point policy firming at the December meeting.
Reserve Bank of Cleveland
In U.S. money markets, the spread between the three-
month London interbank offered rate and three-month
Michael Dotsey and Geoffrey Tootell, Executive Vice
overnight index swap (OIS) rates continued to narrow.
Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia
The widening in that spread earlier in the year appeared
and Boston, respectively
to reflect an especially rapid run-up in Treasury bill sup-
ply. Treasury bill supply remained elevated and report-
Edward S. Knotek II, Spencer Krane, and Mark L.J.
edly continued to contribute to upward pressure on
Wright, Senior Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve
overnight repurchase agreement (repo) rates. The rela-
Banks of Cleveland, Chicago, and Minneapolis,
tively high level of repo rates was associated with con-
respectively
tinued very modest take-up in the Federal Reserve’s
overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) op-
Jonathan P. McCarthy and Jonathan L. Willis, Vice
erations. Elevated repo rates may also have contributed
Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of New York
to the relatively tight spread between the interest on ex-
and Kansas City, respectively
cess reserves (IOER) rate and the effective federal funds
rate. That spread stood at 3 basis points over much of
William Dupor, Assistant Vice President, Federal
the period and seemed likely to narrow to 2 basis points
Reserve Bank of St. Louis
in the near future. As yet, there were no signs that the
upward pressure on the federal funds rate relative to the
Jim Dolmas, Senior Research Economist, Federal
IOER rate was due to scarcity of aggregate reserves in
Reserve Bank of Dallas
the banking system. The level of reserves in the banking
system temporarily dipped sharply in mid-September in
connection with a sizable inflow of tax receipts to the
Treasury’s account at the Federal Reserve; however, that private-sector job openings continued to be elevated in
reduction in reserves in the banking system did not seem June and July, while the rate of quits moved higher on
to have any effect on the federal funds market or the balance; initial claims for unemployment insurance ben-
effective federal funds rate. efits were at a historically low level in mid-September.
Total labor compensation per hour in the nonfarm busi-
In reviewing Federal Reserve operations, the manager
ness sector increased 3.3 percent over the four quarters
noted that market reaction to the ongoing reduction in
ending in the second quarter, and average hourly earn-
the System’s holdings of Treasury and agency securities
ings for all employees rose 2.9 percent over the
had been muted to date. With the increase in the caps
12 months ending in August.
on redemptions to be implemented beginning in Octo-
ber, reinvestment of Treasury securities would occur al- Industrial production expanded at a solid pace in July
most exclusively in the middle month of each quarter in and August. Automakers’ assembly schedules suggested
connection with the Treasury’s midquarter refunding that light motor vehicle production would be roughly
auctions. Under the baseline path for interest rates, the flat in the fourth quarter, although broader indicators of
Federal Reserve’s reinvestments of principal payments manufacturing production, such as the new orders in-
on agency mortgage-backed securities would likely fall to dexes from national and regional manufacturing surveys,
zero beginning in October; however, prepayments could pointed to further solid gains in factory output in the
rise somewhat above the redemption cap in some near term.
months in the future given the uncertainties surrounding
Real PCE appeared to be rising strongly in the third
prepayment projections.
quarter. Retail sales increased somewhat in August, and
By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk’s the data for July were revised up to show a sizable gain.
domestic transactions over the intermeeting period. However, the rate of light motor vehicle sales moved
There were no intervention operations in foreign curren- down in July and August from the robust pace in the
cies for the System’s account during the intermeeting pe- second quarter. The staff’s preliminary assessment was
riod. that the consequences of Hurricane Florence would
have a slight negative effect on aggregate real PCE
Staff Review of the Economic Situation
growth in the third quarter but that spending would
The information reviewed for the September 25–26
bounce back in the fourth quarter. More broadly, recent
meeting indicated that labor market conditions contin-
readings on key factors that influence consumer spend-
ued to strengthen in recent months and that real gross
ing—including gains in employment, real disposable
domestic product (GDP) appeared to be rising at a
personal income, and households’ net worth—contin-
strong rate in the third quarter, similar to its pace in the
ued to be supportive of solid real PCE growth in the
first half of the year. The flooding and damage from
near term. Moreover, consumer sentiment, as measured
Hurricane Florence, which made landfall on Septem-
by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers,
ber 14, seemed likely to have a modest, transitory effect
remained upbeat in August and early September.
on national economic growth in the second half of the
year. Consumer price inflation, as measured by the Real residential investment looked to be declining fur-
12-month percentage change in the price index for per- ther in the third quarter. Starts for new single-family
sonal consumption expenditures (PCE), remained near homes and multifamily units were, on average, below
2 percent in July. Survey-based measures of longer-run their second-quarter rates in July and August. The issu-
inflation expectations were little changed on balance. ance of building permits for both types of housing
stepped down, on net, over those two months, which
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased at a strong
suggested that starts might move lower in coming
pace, on average, in July and August. The national un-
months. Sales of both new and existing homes declined
employment rate decreased to 3.9 percent in July and re-
somewhat in July, and existing home sales were flat in
mained at that level in August, while the labor force par-
August.
ticipation rate and the employment-to-population ratio
moved down somewhat, on balance, over those two Growth in real private expenditures for business equip-
months. The unemployment rates for African Ameri- ment and intellectual property appeared to be moderat-
cans, Asians, and Hispanics in August were below their ing a little in the third quarter following strong gains in
levels at the end of the previous expansion. The share expenditures in the first half of the year. Nominal ship-
of workers employed part time for economic reasons de- ments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft
clined further to below its level in late 2007. The rate of rose briskly in July, although spending for transportation
Page 4 Federal Open Market Committee
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equipment investment moved down in recent months. Staff Review of the Financial Situation
Forward-looking indicators of business equipment Nominal Treasury yields increased over the intermeeting
spending—such as increases in new and unfilled capital period, as market reactions to domestic economic data
goods orders, along with upbeat readings on business releases that were, on balance, slightly stronger than ex-
sentiment from national and regional surveys—pointed pected appeared to outweigh ongoing concerns about
to robust gains in equipment spending in the near term. trade policy and negative developments in some EMEs.
Nominal business expenditures for nonresidential struc- FOMC communications over the period were largely in
tures outside of the drilling and mining sector declined line with expectations and elicited little market reaction.
in July, and the number of crude oil and natural gas rigs Domestic stock prices rose, buoyed in part by positive
in operation—an indicator of business spending for news about corporate earnings, while foreign equity in-
structures in the drilling and mining sector—held about dexes declined and the broad dollar index moved up. Fi-
steady in recent weeks. nancing conditions for nonfinancial businesses and
households remained supportive of economic activity
Total real government purchases looked to be rising fur-
on balance.
ther in the third quarter. Nominal defense spending in
July and August was consistent with continued increases Global financial markets were volatile during the inter-
in real federal purchases. Real expenditures by state and meeting period amid significant stress in some EMEs,
local governments appeared to be roughly flat, as state ongoing focus on Brexit and on fiscal policy in Italy, and
and local government payrolls decreased slightly in July continued trade tensions. On balance, the dollar was lit-
and August, while nominal construction spending by tle changed against AFE currencies and appreciated
these governments rose modestly in July. against EME currencies, as financial pressures on some
EMEs weighed on broader risk sentiment. Turkey and
The nominal U.S. international trade deficit widened in
Argentina experienced significant stress, and other
June and July, with declining exports and rising imports.
countries with similar macroeconomic vulnerabilities
The decline in exports largely reflected lower exports of
also came under pressure. There were small outflows
capital goods, while greater imports of industrial supplies
from dedicated emerging market funds, and EME sov-
boosted overall imports. The available data suggested
ereign bond spreads widened. Trade tensions weighed
that the change in net exports would be a notable drag
on foreign equity prices, as the United States continued
on real GDP growth in the third quarter.
its trade negotiations with Canada and placed additional
Total U.S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE tariffs on Chinese products.
price index, increased 2.3 percent over the 12 months
FOMC communications elicited limited price reactions
ending in July. Core PCE price inflation, which excludes
in financial markets over the intermeeting period, and
changes in consumer food and energy prices, was
market-implied measures of monetary policy expecta-
2.0 percent over that same period. The consumer price
tions were little changed. The probability of an increase
index (CPI) rose 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending
in the target range for the federal funds rate occurring at
in August, while core CPI inflation was 2.2 percent. Re-
the September FOMC meeting, as implied by quotes on
cent readings on survey-based measures of longer-run
the federal funds futures contracts, increased to near cer-
inflation expectations—including those from the Michi-
tainty. The market-implied probability of an additional
gan survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and
rate increase at the December FOMC meeting rose to
the Desk’s Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of
about 75 percent. The market-implied path for the fed-
Market Participants—were little changed on balance.
eral funds rate beyond 2018 increased a touch.
Foreign economic growth slowed in the second quarter,
Evolving trade-related risks and other international de-
as a pickup in growth for the advanced foreign econo-
velopments reportedly weighed somewhat on market
mies (AFEs) was more than offset by slower growth in
sentiment. However, domestic economic data releases
the EMEs. Incoming indicators for the AFEs pointed
came in a bit above market expectations, on net, with the
to some moderation in the pace of growth in the third
stronger-than-expected average hourly earnings in the
quarter, especially for Canada and Japan, while indica-
August employment report notably boosting Treasury
tors for the EMEs suggested a pickup in many countries
yields. Nominal Treasury yields moved up over the in-
from the unusually slow pace of the second quarter.
termeeting period, with the 10-year yield rising above
Foreign inflation had risen a bit recently, boosted by
3 percent. Measures of inflation compensation derived
higher oil prices and, in the EMEs, higher food prices
from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities over the
and recent currency depreciation.
Minutes of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 5
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next 5 years ticked up and were little changed 5 to over the intermeeting period and stayed near their post-
10 years ahead. crisis lows.
Broad U.S. equity price indexes increased about 4 per- Residential mortgage financing conditions remained ac-
cent since the August FOMC meeting, as positive news commodative on balance. For borrowers with low
about corporate earnings and the domestic economy credit scores, however, conditions were still somewhat
outweighed negative international developments. Stock tight despite continued easing in credit availability. Re-
prices increased for many sectors in the S&P 500 index, financing activity continued to be muted in recent
as the second-quarter earnings reports for firms that re- months, and the growth in purchase mortgage origina-
ported later in the earnings cycle came in strong. How- tions slowed a bit relative to year-earlier levels, in part
ever, concerns about economic prospects abroad—par- reflecting the notable increase in mortgage rates earlier
ticularly with respect to trade policy and China—ap- this year.
peared to weigh on stocks in the energy and basic mate-
On net, financing conditions in consumer credit markets
rials sectors, which declined. Option-implied volatility
were little changed in recent months and remained
on the S&P 500 index at the one-month horizon—the
largely supportive of growth in household spending.
VIX—moved down but remained somewhat above the
However, the supply of credit to consumers with sub-
extremely low levels seen in late 2017. Spreads of invest-
prime credit scores remained tight. More broadly, al-
ment- and speculative-grade corporate bond yields over
though interest rates for credit cards and auto loans con-
comparable-maturity Treasury yields narrowed a bit on
tinued to rise, consumer credit expanded at a solid pace.
net.
Staff Economic Outlook
Short-term funding markets functioned smoothly over
In the U.S. economic forecast prepared for the Septem-
the intermeeting period. An elevated level of Treasury
ber FOMC meeting, real GDP was projected to increase
bills outstanding, following heavy issuance this summer,
in the second half of this year at a rate that was just a
continued to put upward pressure on money market
little slower than in the first half of the year. The staff’s
rates and reduced the attractiveness of the Federal Re-
preliminary assessment was that the effects of Hurricane
serve’s ON RRP facility. Take-up at the facility averaged
Florence would lead to a slight reduction in real GDP
$2.9 billion per day over the intermeeting period.
growth in the third quarter and a small addition to
Spreads of unsecured funding rates over comparable-
growth in the fourth quarter as economic activity re-
maturity OIS rates continued to retrace the rise in
turned to more normal levels and some disrupted activ-
spreads recorded earlier this year.
ity was made up. Over the 2018–20 period, output was
On balance, financing conditions for large nonfinancial projected to rise at a rate above or at the staff’s estimate
firms remained accommodative in recent months. De- of potential growth and then slow to a pace below it in
mand for corporate borrowing appeared to have de- 2021. The unemployment rate was projected to decline
clined, in part because of strong earnings, rising interest further below the staff’s estimate of its longer-run natu-
rates, and seasonal factors. In July and August, gross ral rate but to bottom out in 2020 and begin to edge up
issuance of corporate bonds was relatively weak, while in 2021. Relative to the forecast prepared for the previ-
commercial and industrial loan growth moderated. ous meeting, the projection for real GDP growth this
Meanwhile, the pace of equity issuance was solid in July year was revised up a little, primarily in response to
but fell in August, reflecting seasonal factors. Financing stronger-than-expected incoming data on household
conditions for small businesses remained favorable, and spending and business investment. The projection for
survey-based measures of credit demand among small the medium term was not materially changed, in part be-
business owners showed signs of strengthening, al- cause the recently enacted tariffs on Chinese goods and
though demand was still weak relative to pre-crisis levels. the retaliatory actions of China were judged to have only
Gross issuance of municipal bonds continued to be a small net effect on U.S. real GDP growth over the next
solid. few years. In addition, the staff continued to anticipate
that supply constraints might restrain output growth
In the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, financing
somewhat in the medium term. The unemployment rate
conditions also remained accommodative. Although
was projected to be a little lower over the medium term
CRE loan growth at banks moderated in July and Au-
than in the previous forecast, partly in response to the
gust, issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities
staff’s assessment that the natural rate of unemployment
(CMBS) was robust. CMBS spreads were little changed
was a bit lower than previously assumed. With labor
market conditions already tight, the staff continued to
Page 6 Federal Open Market Committee
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assume that projected employment gains would manifest the labor market continued to strengthen and that eco-
in smaller-than-usual downward pressure on the unem- nomic activity rose at a strong rate. Job gains were
ployment rate and in larger-than-usual upward pressure strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemploy-
on the labor force participation rate. ment rate stayed low. Recent data suggested that house-
hold spending and business fixed investment grew
The staff forecast for total PCE price inflation in 2018
strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation
was revised up slightly, mainly because of a faster-than-
and inflation for items other than food and energy re-
expected increase in consumer energy prices in the sec-
mained near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term infla-
ond half. The staff continued to project that total PCE
tion expectations were little changed on balance.
inflation would remain near the Committee’s 2 percent
objective over the medium term and that core PCE price Meeting participants noted that a number of communi-
inflation would run slightly higher than total inflation ties suffered devastating losses associated with Hurri-
over that period because of a projected decline in con- cane Florence. Despite the magnitude of the storm-
sumer energy prices in 2019 through 2021. related destruction, participants expected the imprint on
the level of overall economic activity at the national level
The staff viewed the uncertainty around its projections
to be relatively modest, consistent with the experience
for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and infla-
following several previous major storms.
tion as similar to the average of the past 20 years. The
staff also saw the risks to the forecasts for real GDP Based on recent readings on spending, employment, and
growth and the unemployment rate as balanced. On the inflation, almost all participants saw little change in their
upside, household spending and business investment assessment of the economic outlook, although a few of
could expand faster than the staff projected, supported them judged that recent data pointed to a pace of eco-
in part by the tax cuts enacted last year. On the down- nomic activity that was stronger than they had expected
side, trade policies and foreign economic developments earlier this year. Participants noted a number of favora-
could move in directions that have significant negative ble economic factors that were supporting above-trend
effects on U.S. economic growth. Risks to the inflation GDP growth; these included strong labor market condi-
projection also were seen as balanced. The upside risk tions, stimulative federal tax and spending policies, ac-
that inflation could increase more than expected in an commodative financial conditions, solid household bal-
economy that was projected to move further above its ance sheets, and continued high levels of household and
potential was counterbalanced by the downside risk that business confidence. A number of participants observed
longer-term inflation expectations may be lower than that the stimulative effects of the changes in fiscal policy
was assumed in the staff forecast. would likely diminish over the next several years. A cou-
ple of participants commented that recent strong growth
Participants’ Views on Current Conditions and the
in GDP may also be due in part to increases in the
Economic Outlook
growth rate of the economy’s productive capacity.
In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, members of
the Board of Governors and Federal Reserve Bank pres- In their discussion of the household sector, participants
idents submitted their projections of the most likely out- generally characterized consumption growth as strong,
comes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and they judged that robust increases in disposable in-
and inflation for each year from 2018 through 2021 and come, high levels of consumer confidence, and solid
over the longer run, based on their individual assess- household balance sheets had contributed to the
ments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate. strength in spending. Several participants noted that the
The longer-run projections represented each partici- household saving rate had been revised up significantly
pant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable in the most recent estimates published by the Bureau of
would be expected to converge, over time, under appro- Economic Activity. A few of those participants re-
priate monetary policy and in the absence of further marked that the upward revision in the saving rate could
shocks to the economy. These projections are described be viewed as evidence of the strength of the financial
in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which position of the household sector and could be a factor
is an addendum to these minutes. that would further support solid expansion of consump-
tion spending. However, a couple of participants noted
In their discussion of the economic situation and the
that the higher saving rate may not be a precursor to
outlook, meeting participants agreed that information
higher future consumption growth. For example, the
received since the FOMC met in August indicated that
higher saving rate may indicate some greater caution on
the part of consumers, greater inequality of income and
Minutes of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 7
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
wealth—which would imply a lower aggregate propen- surveys in a number of Districts also indicated some
sity to spend—or changing consumer behavior in a low firming in inflationary pressures. In particular, some
interest rate environment. With regard to residential in- contacts indicated that input prices had been bolstered
vestment, a few participants noted weak residential con- by strong demand or import tariffs. Moreover, several
struction activity at the national or District level, which participants reported that firms in their Districts that
was attributed in part to higher interest rates or supply were facing higher input prices because of tariffs per-
constraints. ceived that they had an increased ability to raise the
prices of their products. A couple of participants em-
Participants noted that business fixed investment had
phasized that because inflation had run below the Com-
grown strongly so far this year. A few commented that
mittee’s 2 percent objective for the past several years,
recent changes in federal tax policy had likely bolstered
some measures of trend inflation or longer-term infla-
investment spending. Contacts in most sectors re-
tion expectations were below levels consistent with the
mained optimistic about their business prospects, and
2 percent objective; these participants judged that a
surveys of manufacturing activity were broadly favora-
modest increase in inflation expectations would be im-
ble. Despite this optimism, a number of contacts cited
portant for achieving the inflation objective on a sus-
factors that were causing them to forego production or
tained basis.
investment opportunities in some cases, including labor
shortages and uncertainty regarding trade policy. In par- In their discussion of developments in financial markets,
ticular, tariffs on aluminum and steel were cited as re- a number of participants noted that financial conditions
ducing new investment in the energy sector. Contacts remained accommodative: The rise in interest rates and
also suggested that firms were attempting to diversify the appreciation of the dollar over the intermeeting period
set of countries with which they trade—both imports had been offset by increases in equity prices, and broader
and exports—as a result of uncertainty over tariff policy. measures continued to point to accommodative financial
Contacts in the agricultural industry reported that tariffs conditions. Some participants commented about the
imposed by China had resulted in lower crop prices, fur- continued growth in leveraged loans, the loosening of
ther depressing incomes in that sector, although a new terms and standards on these loans, or the growth of this
federal program was expected to offset some income activity in the nonbank sector as reasons to remain
losses. mindful of vulnerabilities and possible risks to financial
stability.
In their discussion of labor markets, participants gener-
ally agreed that conditions continued to strengthen. Participants commented on a number of risks and un-
Contacts in many Districts reported tight labor markets, certainties associated with their outlook for economic
with difficulty finding qualified workers. In some cases, activity, the labor market, and inflation over the medium
firms were coping with labor shortages by increasing sal- term. Participants generally agreed that risks to the out-
aries, benefits, or workplace amenities in order to attract look appeared roughly balanced. Some participants
and retain workers. Other business contacts facing labor commented that trade policy developments remained a
shortages were responding by increasing training for source of uncertainty for the outlook for domestic
less-qualified workers. For the economy overall, partic- growth and inflation. The divergence between domestic
ipants generally agreed that, on balance, recent data sug- and foreign economic growth prospects and monetary
gested some acceleration in labor costs, but that wage policies was cited as presenting a downside risk because
growth remained moderate by historical standards, of the potential for further strengthening of the U.S. dol-
which was due in part to tepid productivity growth. lar; some participants noted that financial stresses in a
few EMEs could pose additional risks if they were to
Regarding inflation, participants noted that on a
spread more broadly through the global economy and
12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for
financial markets. With regard to upside risks, partici-
items other than food and energy remained near 2 per-
pants variously noted that high consumer confidence,
cent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations
accommodative financial conditions, or greater-than-
were little changed on balance. In general, participants
expected effects of fiscal stimulus could lead to stronger-
viewed recent consumer price developments as con-
than-expected economic outcomes. Tightening re-
sistent with their expectation that inflation was on a tra-
source utilization and an increasing ability of firms to
jectory to achieve the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent
raise output prices were cited as factors that could lead
objective on a sustained basis. Several participants com-
to higher-than-expected inflation, while lower-than-
mented that inflation may modestly exceed 2 percent for
expected growth, a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, or
a period of time. Reports from business contacts and
Page 8 Federal Open Market Committee
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
inflation expectations persistently running below 2 per- to an abrupt slowing in the economy and inflation mov-
cent were mentioned as risks that could lead to lower ing below the Committee’s objective, against the risk of
inflation. moving too slowly, which could engender inflation per-
sistently above the objective and possibly contribute to
A few participants offered perspectives on the term
a buildup of financial imbalances.
structure of interest rates and what a potential inversion
of the yield curve might signal about economic pro- Participants offered their views about how much addi-
spects in light of the historical regularity that an inverted tional policy firming would likely be required for the
yield curve has often preceded the onset of recessions in Committee to sustainably achieve its objectives of max-
the United States. On the one hand, an inverted yield imum employment and 2 percent inflation. A few par-
curve could indicate an increased risk of recession; on ticipants expected that policy would need to become
the other hand, the low level of term premiums in recent modestly restrictive for a time and a number judged that
years—reflecting, in part, central bank asset purchases— it would be necessary to temporarily raise the federal
could temper the reliability of the slope of the yield curve funds rate above their assessments of its longer-run level
as an indicator of future economic activity. In addition, in order to reduce the risk of a sustained overshooting
the recent rise and possible further increases in longer- of the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective or the
term interest rates might diminish the likelihood that the risk posed by significant financial imbalances. A couple
yield curve would invert in the near term. of participants indicated that they would not favor
adopting a restrictive policy stance in the absence of
In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting,
clear signs of an overheating economy and rising infla-
participants generally judged that the economy was
tion.
evolving about as anticipated, with real economic activ-
ity rising at a strong rate, labor market conditions con- Participants reaffirmed that adjustments to the path for
tinuing to strengthen, and inflation near the Committee’s the policy rate would depend on their assessments of the
objective. Based on their current assessments, all partic- evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the out-
ipants expressed the view that it would be appropriate look relative to the Committee’s statutory objectives.
for the Committee to continue its gradual approach to Many of them noted that future adjustments to the tar-
policy firming by raising the target range for the federal get range for the federal funds rate will depend on the
funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting. Almost all evaluation of incoming information and its implications
considered that it was also appropriate to revise the for the economic outlook. In this context, estimates of
Committee’s postmeeting statement in order to remove the level of the neutral federal funds rate would be only
the language stating that “the stance of monetary policy one among many factors that the Committee would con-
remains accommodative.” Participants discussed a sider in making its policy decisions.
number of reasons for removing the language at this
Building on comments expressed at previous meetings,
time, noting that the Committee would not be signaling
a couple of participants indicated that it would be desir-
a change in the expected path for policy, particularly as
able to assess the Committee’s strategic approach to the
the target range for the federal funds rate announced af-
conduct of policy and to hold a periodic and systematic
ter the Committee’s meeting would still be below all of
review of the strengths and weaknesses of the Commit-
the estimates of its longer-run level submitted in the Sep-
tee’s monetary policy framework.
tember SEP. In addition, waiting until the target range
for the federal funds rate had been increased further to Committee Policy Action
remove the characterization of the policy stance as “ac- In their discussion of monetary policy for the period
commodative” could convey a false sense of precision in ahead, members judged that information received since
light of the considerable uncertainty surrounding all es- the Committee met in August indicated that the labor
timates of the neutral federal funds rate. market had continued to strengthen and that economic
activity had been rising at a strong rate. Job gains had
With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond
been strong, on average, in recent months, and the un-
this meeting, participants generally anticipated that fur-
employment rate had stayed low. Household spending
ther gradual increases in the target range for the federal
and business fixed investment had grown strongly. On
funds rate would most likely be consistent with a sus-
a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for
tained economic expansion, strong labor market condi-
items other than food and energy remained near 2 per-
tions, and inflation near 2 percent over the medium
cent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations
term. This gradual approach would balance the risk of
were little changed on balance.
tightening monetary policy too quickly, which could lead
Minutes of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 9
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Members viewed the recent data as consistent with an to maintain the federal funds rate in a target
economy that was evolving about as they had expected. range of 2 to 2¼ percent, including overnight
Consequently, members expected that further gradual reverse repurchase operations (and reverse re-
increases in the target range for the federal funds rate purchase operations with maturities of more
would be consistent with sustained expansion of eco- than one day when necessary to accommodate
nomic activity, strong labor market conditions, and in- weekend, holiday, or similar trading conven-
flation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objec- tions) at an offering rate of 2.00 percent, in
tive over the medium term. Members continued to amounts limited only by the value of Treasury
judge that the risks to the economic outlook remained securities held outright in the System Open
roughly balanced. Market Account that are available for such op-
erations and by a per-counterparty limit of
After assessing current conditions and the outlook for
$30 billion per day.
economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, mem-
bers voted to raise the target range for the federal funds The Committee directs the Desk to continue
rate to 2 to 2¼ percent. Members agreed that the timing rolling over at auction the amount of principal
and size of future adjustments to the target range for the payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings
federal funds rate would depend on their assessment of of Treasury securities maturing during Septem-
realized and expected economic conditions relative to ber that exceeds $24 billion, and to continue re-
the Committee’s maximum-employment objective and investing in agency mortgage-backed securities
symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. They reiterated the amount of principal payments from the
that this assessment would take into account a wide Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and
range of information, including measures of labor mar- agency mortgage-backed securities received
ket conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and in- during September that exceeds $16 billion. Ef-
flation expectations, and readings on financial and inter- fective in October, the Committee directs the
national developments. Desk to roll over at auction the amount of prin-
cipal payments from the Federal Reserve’s hold-
With regard to the postmeeting statement, members
ings of Treasury securities maturing during each
agreed to remove the sentence indicating that “the
calendar month that exceeds $30 billion, and to
stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.”
reinvest in agency mortgage-backed securities
Members made various points regarding the removal of
the amount of principal payments from the
the sentence from the statement. These points included
Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and
that the characterization of the stance of policy as “ac-
agency mortgage-backed securities received
commodative” had provided useful forward guidance in
during each calendar month that exceeds
the early stages of the policy normalization process, that
$20 billion. Small deviations from these
this characterization was no longer providing meaning-
amounts for operational reasons are acceptable.
ful information in light of uncertainty surrounding the
level of the neutral policy rate, that it was appropriate to The Committee also directs the Desk to engage
remove the characterization of the stance from the in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as
Committee’s statement before the target range for the necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal
federal funds rate moved closer to the range of estimates Reserve’s agency mortgage-backed securities
of the neutral policy rate, and that the Committee’s ear- transactions.”
lier communications had helped prepare the public for
The vote also encompassed approval of the statement
this change.
below to be released at 2:00 p.m.:
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee
“Information received since the Federal Open
voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank
Market Committee met in August indicates that
of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to exe-
the labor market has continued to strengthen
cute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the
and that economic activity has been rising at a
following domestic policy directive, to be released at
strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on av-
2:00 p.m.:
erage, in recent months, and the unemployment
“Effective September 27, 2018, the Federal rate has stayed low. Household spending and
Open Market Committee directs the Desk to business fixed investment have grown strongly.
undertake open market operations as necessary On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and
Page 10 Federal Open Market Committee
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
inflation for items other than food and energy Voting against this action: None.
remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-
Ms. George voted as alternate member at this meeting.
term inflation expectations are little changed, on
balance. To support the Committee’s decision to raise the target
range for the federal funds rate, the Board of Governors
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Com-
voted unanimously to raise the interest rates on required
mittee seeks to foster maximum employment
and excess reserve balances to 2.20 percent, effective
and price stability. The Committee expects that
September 27, 2018. The Board of Governors also
further gradual increases in the target range for
voted unanimously to approve a ¼ percentage point in-
the federal funds rate will be consistent with
crease in the primary credit rate (discount rate) to
sustained expansion of economic activity,
2.75 percent, effective September 27, 2018. 5
strong labor market conditions, and inflation
near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent ob- Following the vote, Chairman Powell noted that he had
jective over the medium term. Risks to the eco- asked Governor Clarida to serve as chair of a subcom-
nomic outlook appear roughly balanced. mittee on communications issues. The other members
of the subcommittee will include Governor Brainard,
In view of realized and expected labor market
President Kaplan, and President Rosengren. The role of
conditions and inflation, the Committee de-
the subcommittee will be to help prioritize and frame
cided to raise the target range for the federal
communications issues for the Committee.
funds rate to 2 to 2¼ percent.
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee
In determining the timing and size of future ad-
would be held on Wednesday–Thursday, Novem-
justments to the target range for the federal
ber 7–8, 2018. The meeting adjourned at 10:00 a.m. on
funds rate, the Committee will assess realized
September 26, 2018.
and expected economic conditions relative to its
maximum employment objective and its sym- Notation Vote
metric 2 percent inflation objective. This as- By notation vote completed on August 21, 2018, the
sessment will take into account a wide range of Committee unanimously approved the minutes of the
information, including measures of labor mar- Committee meeting held on July 31–August 1, 2018.
ket conditions, indicators of inflation pressures
and inflation expectations, and readings on fi-
nancial and international developments.”
Voting for this action: Jerome H. Powell, John C. _____________________________
Williams, Thomas I. Barkin, Raphael W. Bostic, Lael James A. Clouse
Brainard, Richard H. Clarida, Esther L. George, Loretta Secretary
J. Mester, and Randal K. Quarles.
5 In taking this action, the Board approved requests to estab- request. (Secretary’s note: Subsequently, the Federal Reserve
lish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Fed- Banks of New York and Minneapolis were informed by the
eral Reserve Banks of Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Rich- Secretary of the Board of the Board’s approval of their estab-
mond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, and lishment of a primary credit rate of 2.75 percent, effective Sep-
San Francisco. This vote also encompassed approval by the tember 27, 2018.) The second vote of the Board also encom-
Board of Governors of the establishment of a 2.75 percent passed approval of the establishment of the interest rates for
primary credit rate by the remaining Federal Reserve Banks, secondary and seasonal credit under the existing formulas for
effective on the later of September 27, 2018, and the date such computing such rates.
Reserve Banks informed the Secretary of the Board of such a
Page 1
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Commit- participants indicating that these revisions mostly re-
tee (FOMC) meeting held on September 25–26, 2018, flected incoming data. Participants’ projections of infla-
meeting participants submitted their projections of the tion were largely unchanged from June. Table 1 and fig-
most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product ure 1 provide summary statistics for the projections.
(GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for
As shown in figure 2, almost all participants continued
each year from 2018 to 2021 and over the longer run. 1
to expect that the evolution of the economy, relative to
Each participant’s projections were based on infor-
their objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent
mation available at the time of the meeting, together with
inflation, would likely warrant further gradual increases
his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy—
in the federal funds rate. The medians of participants’
including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-
projections of the federal funds rate through 2020 were
run value—and assumptions about other factors likely
unchanged relative to their June projections, and the me-
to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projec-
dian of participants’ projections for 2021 was the same
tions represent each participant’s assessment of the
as that for 2020. The median projection for the longer-
value to which each variable would be expected to con-
run federal funds rate rose slightly, with several partici-
verge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and
pants citing increases in model-based estimates of the
in the absence of further shocks to the economy. 2 “Ap-
longer-run real federal funds rate and strong economic
propriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path
data as reasons for the revision. A substantial majority
of policy that each participant deems most likely to fos-
of participants expected that the year-end 2020 and 2021
ter outcomes for economic activity and inflation that
federal funds rate would be above their estimates of the
best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the
longer-run rate.
statutory mandate to promote maximum employment
and price stability. In general, participants continued to view the uncer-
tainty around their economic projections as broadly sim-
All participants who submitted longer-run projections
ilar to the average of the past 20 years. Risks to their
expected that, in 2018, real GDP would expand at a pace
outlooks were viewed as balanced, although a couple
exceeding their individual estimates of the longer-run
more participants than in June saw risks to their inflation
growth rate of real GDP. All participants anticipated
projections as weighted to the upside.
that real GDP growth would moderate in the coming
years, and a majority of participants projected growth in The Outlook for Economic Activity
2021 to be below their estimates of the longer-run rate. The medians of participants’ projections for the growth
All participants who submitted longer-run projections rate of real GDP, conditional on their individual assess-
expected that the unemployment rate would run below ments of appropriate monetary policy, were 3.1 percent
their estimates of its longer-run level throughout the for 2018, 2.5 percent for 2019, and 2.0 percent for 2020.
projection period. Participants generally projected that For this SEP, participants also submitted projections for
inflation, as measured by the four-quarter percentage economic variables in 2021 for the first time. Partici-
change in the price index for personal consumption ex- pants’ projections for real GDP growth in 2021 were al-
penditures (PCE), would be at or near the Committee’s most all below participants’ projections of growth in
2 percent objective at the end of 2018 and would con- 2020 and, for a majority of participants, below their
tinue at close to that rate through 2021. Compared with longer-run projections of real GDP growth. Some par-
the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from ticipants cited the waning of fiscal stimulus, less accom-
June, a solid majority of participants marked up their modative monetary policy, or anticipated appreciation of
projections of real GDP growth and most increased the dollar as factors contributing to their forecasts for a
their forecast of the unemployment rate in 2018, with moderation of real GDP growth over the course of the
projection period.
1 Four members of the Board of Governors, one more than was vacant at the time of this FOMC meeting; First Vice Pres-
in June 2018, were in office at the time of the September 2018 ident Mark A. Gould submitted economic projections.
meeting and submitted economic projections. The office of 2 One participant did not submit longer-run projections for
the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds
rate.
Page 2
Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents,
under their individual assessments of projected appropriate monetary policy, September 2018
Percent
Median1 Central tendency2 Range3
Variable 2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer 2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer 2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer
run run run
Change in real GDP 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.8 3.0 – 3.2 2.4 – 2.7 1.8 – 2.1 1.6 – 2.0 1.8 – 2.0 2.9 – 3.2 2.1 – 2.8 1.7 – 2.4 1.5 – 2.1 1.7 – 2.1
June projection 2.8 2.4 2.0 n.a. 1.8 2.7 – 3.0 2.2 – 2.6 1.8 – 2.0 n.a. 1.8 – 2.0 2.5 – 3.0 2.1 – 2.7 1.5 – 2.2 n.a. 1.7 – 2.1
Unemployment rate 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.5 3.7 3.4 – 3.6 3.4 – 3.8 3.5 – 4.0 4.3 – 4.6 3.7 – 3.8 3.4 – 3.8 3.3 – 4.0 3.4 – 4.2 4.0 – 4.6
June projection 3.6 3.5 3.5 n.a. 4.5 3.6 – 3.7 3.4 – 3.5 3.4 – 3.7 n.a. 4.3 – 4.6 3.5 – 3.8 3.3 – 3.8 3.3 – 4.0 n.a. 4.1 – 4.7
PCE inflation 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 – 2.1 2.0 – 2.1 2.1 – 2.2 2.0 – 2.2 2.0 1.9 – 2.2 2.0 – 2.3 2.0 – 2.2 2.0 – 2.3 2.0
June projection 2.1 2.1 2.1 n.a. 2.0 2.0 – 2.1 2.0 – 2.2 2.1 – 2.2 n.a. 2.0 2.0 – 2.2 1.9 – 2.3 2.0 – 2.3 n.a. 2.0
Core PCE inflation4 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 – 2.0 2.0 – 2.1 2.1 – 2.2 2.0 – 2.2 1.9 – 2.0 2.0 – 2.3 2.0 – 2.2 2.0 – 2.3
June projection 2.0 2.1 2.1 n.a. 1.9 – 2.0 2.0 – 2.2 2.1 – 2.2 n.a. 1.9 – 2.1 2.0 – 2.3 2.0 – 2.3 n.a.
Memo: Projected
appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.1 – 2.4 2.9 – 3.4 3.1 – 3.6 2.9 – 3.6 2.8 – 3.0 2.1 – 2.4 2.1 – 3.6 2.1 – 3.9 2.1 – 4.1 2.5 – 3.5
June projection 2.4 3.1 3.4 n.a. 2.9 2.1 – 2.4 2.9 – 3.4 3.1 – 3.6 n.a. 2.8 – 3.0 1.9 – 2.6 1.9 – 3.6 1.9 – 4.1 n.a. 2.3 – 3.5
Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous
Federal Open Market Committee
year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth
quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s
assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections
for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal
funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The June projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on
June 12–13, 2018. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the June
12–13, 2018, meeting, and one participant did not submit such projections in conjunction with the September 25–26, 2018, meeting.
1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the
average of the two middle projections.
2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.
3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants’ projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year.
4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 3
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2018–21 and over the longer run
Percent
Actual
2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer
run
Percent
Unemployment rate
7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer
run
Percent
PCE inflation
3
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer
run
Percent
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Longer
run
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of
the variables are annual.
Page 4 Federal Open Market Committee
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Figure 2. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for
the federal funds rate
Percent
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual par-
ticipant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target
level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not
submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 5
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
While most participants made slight upward revisions to Table 2. Average historical projection error ranges
Percentage points
their unemployment rate projections for this year, their
Variable 2018 2019 2020 2021
projections in subsequent years and in the longer run
Change in real GDP1 . . . . . . ±1.2 ±1.8 ±1.9 ±2.0
were largely unchanged. A substantial majority of par-
ticipants expected the unemployment rate to bottom out Unemployment rate1 ...... ±0.3 ±1.1 ±1.6 ±2.0
in 2019 or 2020 at levels below their estimates of the un- Total consumer prices2 .... ±0.8 ±1.0 ±1.1 ±1.1
employment rate in the longer run, and then to rise a
Short-term interest rates3 . . . ±0.5 ±1.7 ±2.3 ±2.7
little in 2021.
NOTE: Error ranges shown are measured as plus or minus the
Figures 3.A and 3.B show the distributions of partici- root mean squared error of projections for 1998 through 2017 that
were released in the fall by various private and government forecasters.
pants’ projections for real GDP growth and the unem- As described in the box “Forecast Uncertainty,” under certain assump-
ployment rate from 2018 to 2021 and over the longer tions, there is about a 70 percent probability that actual outcomes for
run. The distribution of individual projections for real real GDP, unemployment, consumer prices, and the federal funds rate
will be in ranges implied by the average size of projection errors made
GDP growth for this year shifted noticeably to the right in the past. For more information, see David Reifschneider and Peter
relative to that in the June SEP; the distribution for pro- Tulip (2017), “Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Us-
ing Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve’s Approach,”
jected real GDP growth for 2019 also shifted to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020 (Washington:
right, albeit only a little. The distributions of individual Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February),
projections for the unemployment rate in 2018 and 2019 www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2017/files/2017020pap.
pdf.
shifted up a little relative to the distributions in June, 1. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
while the distributions of the projections for the unem- 2. Measure is the overall consumer price index, the price measure
ployment rate in the longer run were largely unchanged. that has been most widely used in government and private economic
forecasts. Projections are percent changes on a fourth quarter to
fourth quarter basis.
The Outlook for Inflation 3. For Federal Reserve staff forecasts, measure is the federal funds
The medians of projections for total PCE price inflation rate. For other forecasts, measure is the rate on 3-month Treasury
were 2.1 percent in 2018, 2.0 percent in 2019, and bills. Projection errors are calculated using average levels, in percent,
in the fourth quarter.
2.1 percent in 2020 and 2021. The medians of projec-
tions for core PCE price inflation were 2.0 percent in
2018 and 2.1 percent in 2019, 2020, and 2021. For the the ends of 2019 and 2020 were relatively wide, as was
entire period between 2018 and 2020, these medians the case in the June SEP.
were very similar to the June SEP. Figures 3.C and 3.D
In discussing their projections, almost all participants
provide information on the distributions of participants’
continued to express the view that the appropriate tra-
views about the outlook for inflation. Relative to the
jectory of the federal funds rate would likely involve
June SEP, a number of participants revised slightly down
gradual increases. This view was predicated on several
their projections for total PCE inflation this year and
factors, including a judgment that a gradual path of pol-
next. Most participants projected total PCE price infla-
icy firming would appropriately balance the risk of a
tion in the range of 1.9 to 2.0 percent for 2018 and 2019
buildup of inflationary pressures or other imbalances as-
and 2.1 to 2.2 percent in 2020 and 2021. Most partici-
sociated with high levels of resource utilization, against
pants projected that core PCE inflation would run at
the risk that factors such as diminishing fiscal stimulus
1.9 to 2.0 percent in 2018 and at 2.1 to 2.2 percent in
and adverse developments in foreign economies could
2019, 2020, and 2021. Relative to the June SEP, a larger
become a significant drag on real GDP growth. As al-
number of participants projected that core PCE inflation
ways, the appropriate path of the federal funds rate
in 2019 and 2020 would fall in the 2.1 to 2.2 percent
would depend on incoming economic data and their im-
range.
plications for participants’ economic outlooks and as-
Appropriate Monetary Policy sessments of risks.
Figure 3.E shows distributions of participants’ judg-
Uncertainty and Risks
ments regarding the appropriate target—or midpoint of
In assessing the appropriate path of the federal funds
the target range—for the federal funds rate for the end
rate, FOMC participants take account of the range of
of each year from 2018 to 2021 and over the longer run.
possible economic outcomes, the likelihood of those
The distribution of projected policy rates for year-end
outcomes, and the potential benefits and costs should
2018 was higher than in the June SEP, with projections
they occur. As a reference, table 2 provides measures of
clustered around 2.4 percent. The distributions of par-
forecast uncertainty, based on the forecast errors of var-
ticipants’ views of the appropriate federal funds rate at
ious private and government forecasts over the past
Page 6 Federal Open Market Committee
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants’ projections for the change in real GDP, 2018–21 and over the longer run
Number of participants
2018
September projections 18
June projections 16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.4 - 1.6 - 1.8 - 2.0 - 2.2 - 2.4 - 2.6 - 2.8 - 3.0 - 3.2 -
1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3
Percent range
Number of participants
2019
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.4 - 1.6 - 1.8 - 2.0 - 2.2 - 2.4 - 2.6 - 2.8 - 3.0 - 3.2 -
1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3
Percent range
Number of participants
2020
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.4 - 1.6 - 1.8 - 2.0 - 2.2 - 2.4 - 2.6 - 2.8 - 3.0 - 3.2 -
1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3
Percent range
Number of participants
2021
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.4 - 1.6 - 1.8 - 2.0 - 2.2 - 2.4 - 2.6 - 2.8 - 3.0 - 3.2 -
1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3
Percent range
Number of participants
Longer run
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.4 - 1.6 - 1.8 - 2.0 - 2.2 - 2.4 - 2.6 - 2.8 - 3.0 - 3.2 -
1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3
Percent range
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 7
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants’ projections for the unemployment rate, 2018–21 and over the longer run
Number of participants
2018
September projections 18
June projections 16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
3.0 - 3.2 - 3.4 - 3.6 - 3.8 - 4.0 - 4.2 - 4.4 - 4.6 - 4.8 - 5.0 -
3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1
Percent range
Number of participants
2019
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
3.0 - 3.2 - 3.4 - 3.6 - 3.8 - 4.0 - 4.2 - 4.4 - 4.6 - 4.8 - 5.0 -
3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1
Percent range
Number of participants
2020
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
3.0 - 3.2 - 3.4 - 3.6 - 3.8 - 4.0 - 4.2 - 4.4 - 4.6 - 4.8 - 5.0 -
3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1
Percent range
Number of participants
2021
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
3.0 - 3.2 - 3.4 - 3.6 - 3.8 - 4.0 - 4.2 - 4.4 - 4.6 - 4.8 - 5.0 -
3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1
Percent range
Number of participants
Longer run
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
3.0 - 3.2 - 3.4 - 3.6 - 3.8 - 4.0 - 4.2 - 4.4 - 4.6 - 4.8 - 5.0 -
3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1
Percent range
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Page 8 Federal Open Market Committee
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants’ projections for PCE inflation, 2018–21 and over the longer run
Number of participants
2018
September projections 18
June projections 16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.9 - 2.1 - 2.3 -
2.0 2.2 2.4
Percent range
Number of participants
2019
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.9 - 2.1 - 2.3 -
2.0 2.2 2.4
Percent range
Number of participants
2020
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.9 - 2.1 - 2.3 -
2.0 2.2 2.4
Percent range
Number of participants
2021
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.9 - 2.1 - 2.3 -
2.0 2.2 2.4
Percent range
Number of participants
Longer run
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.9 - 2.1 - 2.3 -
2.0 2.2 2.4
Percent range
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 9
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants’ projections for core PCE inflation, 2018–21
Number of participants
2018
September projections 18
June projections
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2019
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2020
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2021
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Page 10 Federal Open Market Committee
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants’ judgments of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds
rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate, 2018–21 and over the longer run
Number of participants
2018
September projections 18
June projections 16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.88 - 2.13 - 2.38 - 2.63 - 2.88 - 3.13 - 3.38 - 3.63 - 3.88 - 4.13 - 4.38 - 4.63 - 4.88 -
2.12 2.37 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.37 3.62 3.87 4.12 4.37 4.62 4.87 5.12
Percent range
Number of participants
2019
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.88 - 2.13 - 2.38 - 2.63 - 2.88 - 3.13 - 3.38 - 3.63 - 3.88 - 4.13 - 4.38 - 4.63 - 4.88 -
2.12 2.37 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.37 3.62 3.87 4.12 4.37 4.62 4.87 5.12
Percent range
Number of participants
2020
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.88 - 2.13 - 2.38 - 2.63 - 2.88 - 3.13 - 3.38 - 3.63 - 3.88 - 4.13 - 4.38 - 4.63 - 4.88 -
2.12 2.37 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.37 3.62 3.87 4.12 4.37 4.62 4.87 5.12
Percent range
Number of participants
2021
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.88 - 2.13 - 2.38 - 2.63 - 2.88 - 3.13 - 3.38 - 3.63 - 3.88 - 4.13 - 4.38 - 4.63 - 4.88 -
2.12 2.37 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.37 3.62 3.87 4.12 4.37 4.62 4.87 5.12
Percent range
Number of participants
Longer run
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.88 - 2.13 - 2.38 - 2.63 - 2.88 - 3.13 - 3.38 - 3.63 - 3.88 - 4.13 - 4.38 - 4.63 - 4.88 -
2.12 2.37 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.37 3.62 3.87 4.12 4.37 4.62 4.87 5.12
Percent range
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1.
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 11
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
20 years, for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, Those participants who did not judge the risks to their
and total PCE price inflation. Those measures are rep- real GDP growth and unemployment rate projections as
resented graphically in the “fan charts” shown in the top balanced were roughly evenly split between those who
panels of figures 4.A, 4.B, and 4.C. The fan charts dis- viewed the risks as being weighted to the upside and
play the median SEP projections for the three variables those who viewed the risks as being weighted to the
surrounded by symmetric confidence intervals derived downside. Risks around both total and core inflation
from the forecast errors reported in table 2. If the de- projections were judged to be broadly balanced by a
gree of uncertainty attending these projections is similar solid majority of participants; however, those partici-
to the typical magnitude of past forecast errors and the pants who saw the risks as uneven saw them as weighted
risks around the projections are broadly balanced, then to the upside.
future outcomes of these variables would have about a
In discussing the uncertainty and risks surrounding their
70 percent probability of being within these confidence
economic projections, many participants pointed to up-
intervals. For all three variables, this measure of uncer-
side risks to real GDP growth from fiscal stimulus or
tainty is substantial and generally increases as the fore-
stronger-than-expected effects of business optimism.
cast horizon lengthens.
Many participants also pointed to downside risks for the
Participants’ assessments of the level of uncertainty sur- economy and inflation stemming from factors such as
rounding their individual economic projections are trade policy, stresses in emerging market economies, or
shown in the bottom-left panels of figures 4.A, 4.B, and stronger-than-anticipated appreciation of the dollar.
4.C. Nearly all participants viewed the degree of uncer-
Participants’ assessments of the appropriate future path
tainty attached to their economic projections for real
of the federal funds rate were also subject to considera-
GDP growth and inflation as broadly similar to the av-
ble uncertainty. Because the Committee adjusts the fed-
erage of the past 20 years. 3 A couple more participants
eral funds rate in response to actual and prospective de-
than in June viewed the uncertainty around the unem-
velopments over time in real GDP growth, the unem-
ployment rate as higher than average.
ployment rate, and inflation, uncertainty surrounding the
Because the fan charts are constructed to be symmetric projected path for the federal funds rate importantly re-
around the median projections, they do not reflect any flects the uncertainties about the paths for those key eco-
asymmetries in the balance of risks that participants may nomic variables along with other factors. Figure 5 pro-
see in their economic projections. Participants’ assess- vides a graphical representation of this uncertainty, plot-
ments of the balance of risks to their economic projec- ting the median SEP projection for the federal funds rate
tions are shown in the bottom-right panels of fig- surrounded by confidence intervals derived from the re-
ures 4.A, 4.B, and 4.C. Most participants assessed the sults presented in table 2. As with the macroeconomic
risks to their projections of real GDP growth and the variables, the forecast uncertainty surrounding the ap-
unemployment rate as broadly balanced—in other propriate path of the federal funds rate is substantial and
words, as broadly consistent with a symmetric fan chart. increases for longer horizons.
3At the end of this summary, the box “Forecast Uncertainty” used to assess the uncertainty and risks attending the partici-
discusses the sources and interpretation of uncertainty sur- pants’ projections.
rounding the economic forecasts and explains the approach
Page 12 Federal Open Market Committee
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Median projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errors Percent
Actual 2
FOMC participants’ assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projections
Number of participants Number of participants
Note: The blue and red lines in the top panel show actual values and median projected values, respectively, of the
percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP) from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter
of the year indicated. The confidence interval around the median projected values is assumed to be symmetric and is
based on root mean squared errors of various private and government forecasts made over the previous 20 years; more
information about these data is available in table 2. Because current conditions may differ from those that prevailed,
on average, over the previous 20 years, the width and shape of the confidence interval estimated on the basis of the
historical forecast errors may not reflect FOMC participants’ current assessments of the uncertainty and risks around
their projections; these current assessments are summarized in the lower panels. Generally speaking, participants who
judge the uncertainty about their projections as “broadly similar” to the average levels of the past 20 years would view
the width of the confidence interval shown in the historical fan chart as largely consistent with their assessments of
the uncertainty about their projections. Likewise, participants who judge the risks to their projections as “broadly
balanced” would view the confidence interval around their projections as approximately symmetric. For definitions of
uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box “Forecast Uncertainty.”
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 13
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Median projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errors Percent
Unemployment rate
Median of projections 10
70% confidence interval
9
6
Actual
5
FOMC participants’ assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projections
Number of participants Number of participants
Note: The blue and red lines in the top panel show actual values and median projected values, respectively, of
the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The confidence interval around
the median projected values is assumed to be symmetric and is based on root mean squared errors of various private
and government forecasts made over the previous 20 years; more information about these data is available in table 2.
Because current conditions may differ from those that prevailed, on average, over the previous 20 years, the width
and shape of the confidence interval estimated on the basis of the historical forecast errors may not reflect FOMC
participants’ current assessments of the uncertainty and risks around their projections; these current assessments are
summarized in the lower panels. Generally speaking, participants who judge the uncertainty about their projections as
“broadly similar” to the average levels of the past 20 years would view the width of the confidence interval shown in the
historical fan chart as largely consistent with their assessments of the uncertainty about their projections. Likewise,
participants who judge the risks to their projections as “broadly balanced” would view the confidence interval around
their projections as approximately symmetric. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the
box “Forecast Uncertainty.”
Page 14 Federal Open Market Committee
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Median projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errors Percent
PCE inflation
Median of projections
70% confidence interval
3
1
Actual
FOMC participants’ assessments of uncertainty and risks around their economic projections
Number of participants Number of participants
Note: The blue and red lines in the top panel show actual values and median projected values, respectively, of the
percent change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) from the fourth quarter of the previous
year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. The confidence interval around the median projected values is assumed
to be symmetric and is based on root mean squared errors of various private and government forecasts made over the
previous 20 years; more information about these data is available in table 2. Because current conditions may differ from
those that prevailed, on average, over the previous 20 years, the width and shape of the confidence interval estimated
on the basis of the historical forecast errors may not reflect FOMC participants’ current assessments of the uncertainty
and risks around their projections; these current assessments are summarized in the lower panels. Generally speaking,
participants who judge the uncertainty about their projections as “broadly similar” to the average levels of the past
20 years would view the width of the confidence interval shown in the historical fan chart as largely consistent with their
assessments of the uncertainty about their projections. Likewise, participants who judge the risks to their projections
as “broadly balanced” would view the confidence interval around their projections as approximately symmetric. For
definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box “Forecast Uncertainty.”
Summary of Economic Projections of the Meeting of September 25–26, 2018 Page 15
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Median projection and confidence interval based on historical forecast errors Percent
1
Actual
Note: The blue and red lines are based on actual values and median projected values, respectively, of the Com-
mittee’s target for the federal funds rate at the end of the year indicated. The actual values are the midpoint of the
target range; the median projected values are based on either the midpoint of the target range or the target level.
The confidence interval around the median projected values is based on root mean squared errors of various private
and government forecasts made over the previous 20 years. The confidence interval is not strictly consistent with the
projections for the federal funds rate, primarily because these projections are not forecasts of the likeliest outcomes for
the federal funds rate, but rather projections of participants’ individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy.
Still, historical forecast errors provide a broad sense of the uncertainty around the future path of the federal funds rate
generated by the uncertainty about the macroeconomic variables as well as additional adjustments to monetary policy
that may be appropriate to offset the effects of shocks to the economy.
The confidence interval is assumed to be symmetric except when it is truncated at zero—the bottom of the lowest
target range for the federal funds rate that has been adopted in the past by the Committee. This truncation would
not be intended to indicate the likelihood of the use of negative interest rates to provide additional monetary policy
accommodation if doing so was judged appropriate. In such situations, the Committee could also employ other tools,
including forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases, to provide additional accommodation. Because current
conditions may differ from those that prevailed, on average, over the previous 20 years, the width and shape of the
confidence interval estimated on the basis of the historical forecast errors may not reflect FOMC participants’ current
assessments of the uncertainty and risks around their projections.
* The confidence interval is derived from forecasts of the average level of short-term interest rates in the fourth
quarter of the year indicated; more information about these data is available in table 2. The shaded area encompasses
less than a 70 percent confidence interval if the confidence interval has been truncated at zero.
Page 16 Federal Open Market Committee
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Forecast Uncertainty
The economic projections provided by the members of rent assessments of the uncertainty surrounding their projec-
the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal tions are summarized in the bottom-left panels of those fig-
Reserve Banks inform discussions of monetary policy among ures. Participants also provide judgments as to whether the
policymakers and can aid public understanding of the basis risks to their projections are weighted to the upside, are
for policy actions. Considerable uncertainty attends these weighted to the downside, or are broadly balanced. That is,
projections, however. The economic and statistical models while the symmetric historical fan charts shown in the top
and relationships used to help produce economic forecasts panels of figures 4.A through 4.C imply that the risks to par-
are necessarily imperfect descriptions of the real world, and ticipants’ projections are balanced, participants may judge that
the future path of the economy can be affected by myriad there is a greater risk that a given variable will be above rather
unforeseen developments and events. Thus, in setting the than below their projections. These judgments are summa-
stance of monetary policy, participants consider not only rized in the lower-right panels of figures 4.A through 4.C.
what appears to be the most likely economic outcome as em- As with real activity and inflation, the outlook for the
bodied in their projections, but also the range of alternative future path of the federal funds rate is subject to considerable
possibilities, the likelihood of their occurring, and the poten- uncertainty. This uncertainty arises primarily because each
tial costs to the economy should they occur. participant’s assessment of the appropriate stance of mone-
Table 2 summarizes the average historical accuracy of a tary policy depends importantly on the evolution of real ac-
range of forecasts, including those reported in past Monetary tivity and inflation over time. If economic conditions evolve
Policy Reports and those prepared by the Federal Reserve in an unexpected manner, then assessments of the appropri-
Board’s staff in advance of meetings of the Federal Open ate setting of the federal funds rate would change from that
Market Committee (FOMC). The projection error ranges point forward. The final line in table 2 shows the error ranges
shown in the table illustrate the considerable uncertainty as- for forecasts of short-term interest rates. They suggest that
sociated with economic forecasts. For example, suppose a the historical confidence intervals associated with projections
participant projects that real gross domestic product (GDP) of the federal funds rate are quite wide. It should be noted,
and total consumer prices will rise steadily at annual rates of, however, that these confidence intervals are not strictly con-
respectively, 3 percent and 2 percent. If the uncertainty at- sistent with the projections for the federal funds rate, as these
tending those projections is similar to that experienced in the projections are not forecasts of the most likely quarterly out-
past and the risks around the projections are broadly bal- comes but rather are projections of participants’ individual as-
anced, the numbers reported in table 2 would imply a prob- sessments of appropriate monetary policy and are on an end-
ability of about 70 percent that actual GDP would expand of-year basis. However, the forecast errors should provide a
within a range of 1.8 to 4.2 percent in the current year, 1.2 to sense of the uncertainty around the future path of the federal
4.8 percent in the second year, 1.1 to 4.9 percent in the third funds rate generated by the uncertainty about the macroeco-
year, and 1.0 to 5.0 percent in the fourth year. The corre- nomic variables as well as additional adjustments to monetary
sponding 70 percent confidence intervals for overall infla- policy that would be appropriate to offset the effects of
tion would be 1.2 to 2.8 percent in the current year, 1.0 to shocks to the economy.
3.0 percent in the second year, and 0.9 to 3.1 percent in the If at some point in the future the confidence interval
third and fourth years. Figures 4.A through 4.C illustrate around the federal funds rate were to extend below zero, it
these confidence bounds in “fan charts” that are symmetric would be truncated at zero for purposes of the fan chart
and centered on the medians of FOMC participants’ projec- shown in figure 5; zero is the bottom of the lowest target
tions for GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and infla- range for the federal funds rate that has been adopted by the
tion. However, in some instances, the risks around the pro- Committee in the past. This approach to the construction of
jections may not be symmetric. In particular, the unemploy- the federal funds rate fan chart would be merely a convention;
ment rate cannot be negative; furthermore, the risks around it would not have any implications for possible future policy
a particular projection might be tilted to either the upside or decisions regarding the use of negative interest rates to pro-
the downside, in which case the corresponding fan chart vide additional monetary policy accommodation if doing so
would be asymmetrically positioned around the median pro- were appropriate. In such situations, the Committee could
jection. also employ other tools, including forward guidance and asset
Because current conditions may differ from those that purchases, to provide additional accommodation.
prevailed, on average, over history, participants provide While figures 4.A through 4.C provide information on
judgments as to whether the uncertainty attached to their the uncertainty around the economic projections, figure 1
projections of each economic variable is greater than, smaller provides information on the range of views across FOMC
than, or broadly similar to typical levels of forecast uncer- participants. A comparison of figure 1 with figures 4.A
tainty seen in the past 20 years, as presented in table 2 and through 4.C shows that the dispersion of the projections
reflected in the widths of the confidence intervals shown in across participants is much smaller than the average forecast
the top panels of figures 4.A through 4.C. Participants’ cur- errors over the past 20 years.