TrueBridge Capital Partners State of The Venture Capital Industry 2018
TrueBridge Capital Partners State of The Venture Capital Industry 2018
MARKET ANALYSIS
Summer 2018
3 5 9
Introduction Fundraising Investing
16 20 24
Valuations Exits & Returns Conclusion
These milestones included the highest number of seed and early stage funds ever raised, as well as the
most capital invested globally. Massive financings drove this dynamic, as deals funded actually decreased
year-over-year. According to Pitchbook, unicorns accounted for less than 1% of transactions in 2017, but
such financings represented more than 22% of the industry’s deal value.
Introduction
By many accounts, investor behavior and In regards to sizeable financings, SoftBank threw around its weight as it began to put its nearly
$100 billion Vision Fund to work. Early stage valuations also reached an all-time high in 2017,
industry data in 2017 were reminiscent of as seed and late stage valuations, as well as total venture funds raised, hit post-bubble highs.
the venture party that raged in 2014 and By many accounts, investor behavior and industry data in 2017 were reminiscent of the venture
party that raged in 2014 and 2015. However, everything did not trend positively in 2017. Most
2015. notably, the exit markets had a disappointing year, particularly given the number of late stage
companies that remain in the IPO pipeline.
2017 might also be remembered as the year Uber stumbled among challenges ranging from
“2017 is the year our industry realized we claims of sexual harassment, numerous lawsuits, and mass employee departures. More broadly,
can and need to change for the better.” allegations of sexual misconduct rocked the technology ecosystem, resulting in the removal
and resignation of high-level employees at venture firms and technology companies alike.
- Aileen Lee, Cowboy Ventures As the #MeToo movement spread virally to shine light on workplace misconduct, the venture
industry was forced to examine itself critically.
With the shutdowns of Beepi, Maple, Sprig, and others, the sharing economy and on-
demand market took some hits as investors turned to growth sectors such as space, robotics,
autonomous vehicles, bioinformatics, and blockchain. Capital remains abundant for the most
promising companies in these and other sectors, driven by competition among investors and
search for returns.
In the following pages, we delve deeper into 2017 trends, pause to discuss the relevance of
blockchain as a technology and the significance of SoftBank as an investor, and project what lies
ahead for the venture industry.
Even as the amount of capital raised decreased, the number of Total US Venture Capital Raised
funds raised in 2017 increased by 11%, continuing the upward
trend since 2009 and representing a post-bubble high. This Capital ($B) No. Funds
dynamic reflects the fact that there were fewer mega funds 90 600
raised in 2017. In 2016, nine venture funds closed on $1 billion
80
or more, nearly double the five funds that reached the billion- 500
dollar mark in 2017. A balance was struck between NEA, which 70
raised $3.3 billion for the single largest venture fund ever, and 60 400
a strong showing by smaller, first-time funds. According to
50
Pitchbook, first-time funds under $50 million raised 23% more 300
capital in 2017 compared to 2016. 40
30 200
Overall, the fundraising market in 2017 remained quite robust. 20
According to Pitchbook, the average time to close a venture 100
10
fund fell from approximately 19 months to 16 months; the
average time between funds raised over the last four years was - -
noticeably shorter than the prior six years, hovering around 2.4 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017
years in 2017; and the median step-up in size between funds
jumped to 1.5x, whereas it had stayed between 1.0 and 1.3x Dow Jones LP Source as of December 31, 2017.
during the prior nine years. These data points reflect both the
velocity of capital investment in today’s market as well as the
generally favorable market for fundraising.
393 $
14.1B
Seed/Early Stage US Venture Capital Raised Similar to the overall venture market, seed/early stage
capital raised in 2017 declined by 14%, breaking a
Capital ($B) No. Funds five year trend of annual increases, while the number
of early/seed funds raised increased by 18% and
45 450 represented a new all-time high for the second year in
40 400 a row.
35 350
The rise in fund count could be attributed, in part,
30 300
to the proliferation of new seed and micro-VC funds
25 250 in recent years. According to Pitchbook, first-time
20 200 venture funds globally raised 37% more funds in 2017
compared to 2016, which represents the highest level
15 150
of capital raised by new managers since 2001. After
10 100 falling nearly every year since 2000, the proportion of
5 50 VC fundraising made up by first-time funds increased
- 0 considerably in 2017.
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017
100
100 12,000
12,000
90
90
10,000
10,000
80
80
70
70
8,000
8,000
60
60
10
10
boom in late stage investments more than compensated for - 0
the typically depressing effects of reduced deal count.
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017
15% 7%
pre-IPO.
INCREASE IN CAPITAL DECREASE IN DEALS
INVESTED COMPLETED
Notably, the average round size for early stage companies in 40 3,500
2017 rose by nearly 31%, after having remained fairly static 35 3,000
from 2015 to 2016. The growing size of Series A rounds has 30
resulted from a competitive marketplace and the relative 2,500
25
maturity of companies raising Series A rounds. 2,000
20
1,500
Over the past several years, the seed market has shifted 15
with the entry of pre-seed rounds. Seed rounds have 1,000
10
become similar to historical Series A rounds in terms of size,
5 500
participants, and pre-money valuation, with many companies
waiting to raise Series A funding until certain user and/or - 0
revenue metrics are established.
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017
This shift towards larger and more mature early stage rounds
has recently created a role for investors to play funding gaps Pitchbook/NVCA as of December 31, 2017.
60 2,500
50 2,000
Select US Companies that raised late stage,
$500+ million rounds: 40
1,500
30
1,000
20
10 500
$3.0B $1.5B
August 2017 December 2017 - 0
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017
$1.0B $500M
March 2017 February 2017
“We are witnessing the birth of a new kind of web…we have all the ingredients necessary for a whole
new wave of innovation. For those of us who lived through the dot-com era, this feels reminiscent.
You have some of the same speculative excess and random enrichment. But you can also feel that
something revolutionary is happening.” - David Sacks, Craft Ventures
In 2017, blockchain technology and cyptocurriences became part Cryptocurrencies leverage blockchain technology to offer a
of mainstream conversations across Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and transaction medium (a “currency” or “token”) to track and reward
Main Street. While a frenzy of speculative behavior and regulatory the computational work that is required to maintain a blockchain
uncertainty is casting shadows over the emerging sector, it is quite network. For a blockchain network to remain current and usable, its
clear that this technology has the potential to be transformational. members must validate the records comprising the blockchain in
a computationally intensive process (“mining”). Cryptocurrencies
Funding activity to blockchain- and cryptocurrency-related exist primarily as an incentive for members of a blockchain to
businesses worldwide rose to an all time high in Q4 2017, according maintain the network. Theoretically, a cryptocurrency will rise
to Pitchbook, and smart investors at reputable firms such as in value as transaction volume increases and as the blockchain
Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, Sequoia, and Union Square network becomes more socially and economically valuable.
have been leading the way with investments in both projects and
funds. Not surprisingly, there was an explosion of crypto-focused What is Bitcoin?
funds formed in 2007 (most structured as hedge funds), starting with Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization,
less than 40 and growing to over 200 globally by year end. has developed a dual identity as an anonymous, peer-to-peer
transaction system as well as a store of wealth. Bitcoin miners –
What are the blockchain and cryptocurrencies? who use special software to solve math problems and are issued
Blockchain technology utilizes a shared, decentralized database bitcoins in exchange – approve transactions and keep the network
(“ledger”) that is owned in part by each member of a peer-to-peer secure. Bitcoin’s price rise has been euphoric with appreciation
network rather than by a single entity (e.g., a bank or local DMV), as of over 1,400% during 2017, and its volatility has been high,
in the case of traditional, centralized databases. The ledger serves prompting pundits to say that it’s one of the biggest asset bubbles
as a registry of transactions, which is split into records (“blocks”) of our lifetime.
of who participated in a transaction, the price, and other details.
Ownership and verification of these blocks are enforced and secured The price escalation has attracted uninformed investors looking to
by encryption from members of the blockchain. Members compete get rich quick, as evidenced by the fact that there are now more
to encode transactions; when a solution is found, the block is added Coinbase accounts than Charles Schwab accounts. Bitcoin’s rise
to the record of all prior transactions (the “chain”), which is then has also pushed up the price of other cryptocurrencies, such as
implemented across the network. Ethereum and Litecoin, of which there are now over 1,500 having a
combined market capitalization of over $500 billion.
$0
The terms of ICO funding are more favorable to entrepreneurs
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than venture capital, which could pose a threat to the traditional
venture capital model. According to First Round Capital’s 2017 State
of Startups survey, one in three founders think ICOs can compete Coindesk.com as of December 31, 2017.
with venture capital. Venture capital firms, however, argue that their
funding comes with advice, services, and partnership, unlike ICO
funding. What is not debatable is that some projects funded by ICOs
consist of only a few people and a whitepaper – ideas that may not Ethereum (ETH) Price
have qualified for funding from a professional seed investor – thus
calling into question their legitimacy.
$1,000
What’s next? $800
There are numerous questions surrounding this emerging sector
$600
including: How will regulation take shape? Which teams are the
best to back? How will the power consumption needs for mining $400
be solved? Will transaction latency time be improved? How can
$200
we ensure the security of our crypto-wallets? Yet the opportunities
ahead are enormous and exciting, with potential use cases that span $0
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across industries and that could disrupt many existing markets.
Although late stage valuations remain 32% below the peak in 2000,
the gradual increase has resulted in valuations that are 115% higher
than the trough in 2009.
Median Late Stage Pre-Money Valuations ($M)
The rise in late stage valuations over the past several years was
discussed in prior reports, and many of the key factors driving the 100
$100.0M
trend remain in place today:
• Companies have delayed IPOs and are staying private longer, $80.0M
80
In 2017, SoftBank, the Japanese telecom giant, began investing out of its nearly $100 Vision Fund’s largest investments in 2017
billion Vision Fund, the largest venture capital or private equity fund in history. SoftBank
said the fund “was created as a result of [its] strongly held beliefs that the next stage of
the Information Revolution is underway, and building the businesses that will make this
possible will require unprecedented long-term investment.” Its investing activities have had a
noticeable impact on the venture market.
$4.4B $2.5B
SoftBank, and its largest limited partners – sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) – are not only
seeking to back innovative, high growth companies, but are serving as alternative means
of financings for companies that otherwise would pursue IPOs. Given their longer-term
investment horizons and deep pockets, SoftBank and SWFs are now important partners for
companies that want to continue to scale globally, particularly in emerging and growing
markets, but avoid the volatility and costs of transparency associated with an IPO. Sizable financing rounds led by Vision Fund
As the biggest technology investor, SoftBank is also, in effect, anointing winners in markets
in which they invest. Startups receiving capital from SoftBank may have funding and strategic
advantages over competitors, but time will tell whether SoftBank’s involvement is more of an
advantage for its companies, or rather a perceived disadvantage for its companies’ rivals.
$450M $360M
Many questions come into play regarding whether or not: valuations will trend higher given
the lower cost of capital for SoftBank and SWFs; SoftBank will crowd out traditional late
stage investors; early stage investors will rely on the Vision Fund for exit opportunities. The
full effect of SoftBank’s Vision Fund will only become apparent with time. Reports suggest
that SoftBank is in talks to raise a second gigantic investment vehicle, such that SoftBank’s $250M
capital may be here to stay.
Given the underlying strength in the broader stock market, the activity level
should have been higher, according to Renaissance Capital. Holding back issuance,
Renaissance believes, was the availability of private capital, uncertainties over tax
legislation, and the disappointing debuts of consumer tech unicorns Snap and Blue
Apron.
Exits & Returns
Snap’s $3.4 billion IPO in Q1 was indeed the most anticipated Number & Median Market Capitalization of IPOs
and largest venture-backed IPO of the year. While post-IPO
performance for Snap and Blue Apron was disappointing, another No. VC-backed IPOs Median Market Cap ($M)
consumer-facing, but profitable, company Stitch Fix, priced well
above its $275 million valuation at $1.4 billion and traded up
over the remainder of 2017. There was also a lot of activity on the 225 $500
enterprise side including IPOs by Cloudera, MongoDB, Mulesoft, 200
Okta, Sendgrid, and Yext; together performing well post-IPO. $400
175
150
The median market cap of IPOs in 2017 was notable as it was the $300
third highest on record since 2000 and 32% above the average 125
since 2000. It may reflect the growing age, maturity, and size 100
$200
of the companies that are staying private longer. According to 75
Pitchbook, startups waited an average of 6.2 years before an IPO 50 $100
or a sale in 2017, up from five years in 2008. 25
0 $0.00M
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017
30.0%
0.0%
2000 01 02 03 04 05
It is now well understood that low absolute returns during the early 2000s were driven primarily by
an overcapitalized venture industry, too many funds chasing too few compelling investments, and a
dampened exit environment related to the 2008 financial crisis. As we’ve previously reported, the industry
has consolidated meaningfully when measured by the number of active venture firms; this consolidation,
combined with a bull market over the last nine years, has contributed to improved returns.
In 2017, there was less of a trend in the movement of individual vintage year IRRs – some years moved higher
relative to 2016, while others adjusted lower. The overall pooled return in 2017, net to limited partners, was
solid; registering an increase of over 11% as of December 31, 2017. This compares favorably to 2016, when
the Cambridge Associates benchmark was up less than 1%. Given the extraordinary strength of the public
markets in 2017 however, the one year venture capital index underperformed. Nonetheless, the venture
capital index continued to compare favorably and often outperform the major public indices over the longer-
term, particularly over the 10- and 20-year periods.
Not surprisingly, strong performance and robust net cash flows back to limited partners contributed to
investors’ enthusiasm for the venture asset class in recent years, as evidenced by high fundraising levels.
Given the lackluster exit environment, fewer distributions are returning to LPs, and we will continue to monitor
whether top quartile IRRs will hold up and how well recent strong paper gains can be realized in future years.
Liquidity will remain top of mind for both limited partners and We fully expect the industry to evolve in 2018 and beyond. While
general partners. According to Pitchbook, roughly $600 billion in we will report on changes in statistics and trends this time next
unrealized returns in the US are locked in companies valued at year, we also hope to report that our industry has made strides
$1 billion or more. IPOs could accelerate following the successful in becoming a more inclusive one that treats all of its diverse
debuts of DropBox, Spotfiy, and Zscaler in early 2018; other participants respectfully and equitably. We’ve already begun to
companies may follow Spotify’s lead in undertaking direct listings. If see the conversation turn into action, such as with the formation
the IPO window does not remain open, alternative exit options, such of All Raise. The technology and venture capital communities will
as secondaries or sales to buyout funds and other deep pocketed continue full steam ahead to start innovative businesses and create
investors, could become even more commonplace. Lower tax rates a new generation of iconic companies. And it will feel even better if
and cash repatriation provisions may encourage corporations to we do so in a way that makes us proud.
make acquisitions.
Resources
A note about the data referenced throughout this report: We acknowledge that there are numerous sources of
industry data that may differ materially in methodology, breadth, and statistics. We regularly review these sources
and, over time, may change the sources we cite. In this year’s report, we primarily reference Pitchbook for investing,
valuation, and exit activity, and Dow Jones LP Source for venture capital fundraising data. Readers will notice that
venture capital investing actually exceeds fundraising for most years; the reason is that investment data includes
activities by corporate, government, and other entities, while fundraising data enables analysis of purely institutional
venture capital fundraising. True capital invested by institutional venture capital firms is likely lower than the
statistics referenced in these analyses, but we believe the data to be directionally accurate. In addition, the data
we present has not been adjusted for inflation, so many of the comparisons made between 2017 and 2000 data are
even more pronounced.
Established in 2007, TrueBridge Capital Partners is an alternative asset management firm focused on generating superior
returns in the venture capital industry.
TrueBridge identifies and invests in high-performing, access-constrained venture capital opportunities that generate
premium value for its partners. TrueBridge prides itself on a data-driven approach to investing in both venture funds and
venture-backed companies. In addition to extensive due diligence processes, the firm regularly gathers, analyzes, and
publishes information about the venture industry and trends at truebridgecapital.com/insights. The firm is recognized for
its longstanding partnership with Forbes to produce The Midas List, an annual ranking of technology’s top investors, The
Midas List Europe, and The Next Billion Dollar Startups List.
The State of the Venture Capital Industry is an annual market analysis of key venture capital industry trends spanning
fundraising, investments, valuations, exits, and returns.