Finalsuffolk CT V5

For Immediate Release – October 21, 2010
For more information, please contact:

Greg Gatlin at 617/573-8428; 617/435-3634; [email protected] or
Mariellen Norris at 617/573-8450; 617/592-5637; [email protected]
Suffolk University Poll Shows Democrats Leading for Governor and U.S. Senate in Connecticut
Connecticut Ballot Listing Candidates Twice is an Added Boost to Democrats Running Statewide
BOSTON – With less than two weeks left in the 2010 election cycle, Connecticut Attorney
General and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Richard Blumenthal (57 percent) has opened
up an 18 point lead over Republican candidate Linda McMahon (39 percent) in the Connecticut
race for U.S. Senate, according to the latest Suffolk University poll. Connecticut for Lieberman
candidate John Mertens has 1 percent, Independent Warren Mosler has 2 percent, while just 2
percent of likely voters remain undecided.
Blumenthal is listed twice on the ballot for U.S. Senate – once as the Democratic Party nominee
and once as the Working Families Party nominee. This fusion or cross-endorsement process
allows total votes cast for both the Democratic and Working Families nominees to be counted for
Blumenthal. Blumenthal was the choice of 54 percent as the Democratic nominee and 3 percent
as the Working Families Party nominee.
“It doesn’t appear that voter fusion will cause too much confusion in Connecticut on election
day,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Boston’s Suffolk
University. “Blumenthal, at this point, doesn’t even need the Working Families Party votes to
secure a win – he just needs Republican Linda McMahon to continue her negative ad campaign,
as voters have viewed McMahon’s campaign as the more negative between the two.”
When asked who has run a more negative campaign in the U.S. Senate race, 62 percent of likely
voters said Republican Linda McMahon, while only 20 percent said Democrat Richard
Blumenthal, and 18 percent were undecided. And, when asked specifically about McMahon’s
ads stating Blumenthal lied about serving in Vietnam, 33 percent of likely voters said it made no
difference as to who they would vote for on Nov. 2, 30 percent said it made them more likely to
vote for Democrat Blumenthal, 25 percent said Republican McMahon, 5 percent stated it made
them more likely to vote for another candidate, and 6 percent of likely voters remain undecided
on the issue.
In the race for governor, Democrat Dan Malloy (49 percent) leads Republican Tom Foley (38
percent) by 11 points. Malloy also benefits from the cross-endorsement votes garnered as the
Democratic and Working Families Party nominee. As the Democratic nominee, Malloy only led
Foley by 7 points. Independent Thomas Marsh received the support of 4 percent and 8 percent
of likely voters were undecided.
Hillary Clinton (65 percent favorable – 26 percent unfavorable) is the most popular politician of
the public figures polled. This mirrors findings in the Suffolk University poll of Pennsylvania,
Illinois, Ohio, Nevada, Massachusetts, and Florida likely voters in the last four weeks. Among
other figures, President Obama scores a 54 percent favorable – 40 percent unfavorable rating in
Connecticut, although his job approval was much closer with 46 percent saying they approve of
the job he is doing as president and 42 percent disapprove.
Republican for Governor Tom Foley scores a 32 percent favorable - 36 percent unfavorable
rating, while his Democratic opponent Dan Molloy scores a 41 percent favorable – 29 percent
unfavorable rating. In the U.S. Senate race, frontrunner Democrat Richard Blumenthal scores a
56 percent favorable – 34 percent unfavorable rating, while his opponent Republican Linda
McMahon scores a 33 percent favorable – 52 percent unfavorable rating.
In the races for the Constitutional offices of secretary of state, treasurer, comptroller, and
attorney general, all Democrats are listed separately as Democratic nominees and Working
Families Party nominees, and lead their respective Republican opponents. For secretary of state
Democrat Denise Merrill (32 percent) leads Republican Jerry Farrell (22 percent), Republican
Jeff Wright (20 percent) trails Democrat Denise Nappier (43 percent) for treasurer, and
Republican Jack Orchulli (16 percent) trails Democrat Kevin Lembo (33 percent) in the race for
comptroller. Finally, in the attorney general race, Democrat George Jepsen (40 percent) leads
Republican Martha Dean (28 percent). All of the above statewide offices carry high undecided
counts signaling fluidity in all races.
Few believe that the recession is over in Connecticut. Only 8 percent indicate it is, while 87
percent say it’s not over. And when likely voters were asked if the job situation will improve in
the next six months, only 34 percent indicate yes, while 58 percent said no.
The Suffolk bellwether, the town of Plainfield, is further evidence that the Democrats may win
both the Senate and governor races in Connecticut. In the Senate fight Blumenthal leads
McMahon 46 percent to 42 percent, while in the race for governor, Malloy leads Foley 45
percent to 36 percent. In the 2006 general election in Connecticut, the town of Plainfield was
within one percentage point of the state totals for all gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates.
Methodology
The statewide survey of 500 Connecticut likely voters was conducted with live telephone
interviews Oct. 19-Oct. 20, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of
confidence. The town of Plainfield bellwether included 300 likely voters polled 10/19-10/20.
Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins. Marginals and full cross-tabulation
data will be posted Thursday, Oct. 21, 2010 on the Suffolk University Political Research Center
Web site: www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html. For more information, contact David Paleologos
at 781-290-9310, [email protected].
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Suffolk University, located in historic downtown Boston, with international campuses in Madrid
and Dakar, Senegal, is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by the teaching and the
intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk University offers a wide range of undergraduate
and graduate programs in more than 90 areas of study. Its mission is to provide access to
excellence in higher education to students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on
diversity. Learn more at www.suffolk.edu.
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For Immediate Release – October 21, 2010

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