Traffic Forecast Method PDF
Traffic Forecast Method PDF
in Moroccan Ports
Figure 1
Evolution of the main traffic related to minerals between 2000 and 2010 (in tons)
Statistics of the National Ports Agency (ANP) and the Office of Port Exploitation (ODEP)
Figure 2
Evolution of the main unitized traffic between 2000 and 2010 (in units)
Statistics of the National Ports Agency (ANP) and the Office of Ports Exploitation (ODEP)
Statistics of the National Ports Agency (ANP) and the Office of Port Exploitation (ODEP)
Table 1
Evolution of tonnage of containers handled in Moroccan ports 2000-2009
Year 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 2 009
Import 2,177,768 2,442,163 2,816,039 3,159,170 3,410,570 3,743,256 3,790,652 4,256,092 4,457,531 4,506,850
Export 1,116,728 1,185,848 1,362,026 1,476,047 1,658,950 1,778,604 1,913,336 2,142,215 2,493,276 2,689,623
Total traffic 3,294,496 3,628,011 4,178,065 4,635,217 5,069,520 5,521,860 5,703,988 6,398,307 6,950,807 7,196,473
Statistics of the National Ports Agency (ANP) and the Office of Port Exploitation (ODEP)
Table 2
Evolution of Moroccan GDP2000-2009 (in millions of USD)
Year 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 2 009
GDP (MUSD) 37,021 37,725 40,416 49,823 56,948 59,524 65,637 75,226 88,883 91,375
shows an average annual increase Illustration of a good estimator Figure 4 reveals the trend of
of 9.5% for containers and 4.4% for of port traffic in Morocco relationship between traffic
TIR trucks. The decrease in 2009 volumes (import, export, and total
was due to the effect of the In this section we use a simple traffic) and Moroccan GDP.
economic crisis on some activities regression in order to forecast the
related to import/export. traffic of containers handled in The analysis of these data confirms
Moroccan ports. The aim is to that GDP is a good estimator of
Passenger traffic check the assumption of container traffic by the method of
correlation between this traffic and least squares. This conclusion is
the Moroccan GDP. Table 1
Passenger traffic is strongly linked confirmed by the calculation of the
provides statistics (in tonnage) of
to the increasing number of index of Bravais-Pearson (rp) and
traffic of containers handled in
Moroccans living abroad in Moroccan ports from 2000 to 2009 by the formulation of estimation
addition to cruise traffic in the (excluding the effect of Tanger-Med equation (Y = a.X+b):
ports of Casablanca, Tangier, and - non transshipment tonnage
Agadir. Statistics from 2008, 2009, handled in this port). We try to use
and 2010 show that traffic has a simple linear regression model to
reached its maximum (about 4 forecast the future traffic.
million per year). The evolution of
passenger traffic is illustrated by We will then study the link between
Figure 3. traffic during the same period with
the GDP (see Table 2).
Table 3
Correlation coefficient and estimation parameters
Table 4
Student test parameters
Traffic r t t(8)
*
Error Conclusion
Import 0.97 10.84 7.120 <0.001 r is significant
Export 0.99 27.60 7.120 <0.001 r is significant
Total traffic 0.99 16.91 7.120 <0.001 r is significant
*
According to the student table; line 8 (number of observations: 2).
Table 5
Implications of the new mode of governance on the management of Moroccan commercial ports
Figure 5
The process of forecasting traffic in Spanish ports
Information
Prelim inary reports Results
sources
Meeting to Final
compare forecasts
Amelioration of
database (ports,
clients, ships,
etc.)
Analysis of
Analysis of the forecasts done by each port authority the first
forecast
Operational level
- Macro-economic analysis Stevedores Services
companies
service
ANP TMSA
• Operational level: The forecast is
done by the port operators who
The approach proposed in the Green, K., Armstrong, J.-S., & Graefe, A.
World Bank website : www.worldbank.org
context of our article is based on (2007). Methods to elicit forecasts from
the Delphi method, which helped groups: Delphi and prediction markets
compared. Foresight: The International World Bank. (2001). The World Bank port
to improve the forecasting
Journal of Applied Forecasting, 8, 17-20. reform tool kit. Module 3. Washington,
mechanism by making it more clear
and methodical. However, this is a DC: The World Bank Group.
milestone in a continuing process Legault, J. (2001). Growth factors of the
of improvement of the operational French port traffic. The ISEMAR
aspects of port management in summaries. N° 37 (pp. 1-9). Saint-
Morocco. Nazaire Cedex, France: ISEMAR About the Author
(www.isemar.asso.fr).
Abdelali HAJBI holds a Master degree in
Business and International Development and
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