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2018-2027 Soreco II PSPP
2018-2027 Soreco II PSPP
In compliance with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Department Circular No. DC 2018-02-0003,
“Adopting and Prescribing the Policy for the Competitive Selection Process in the Procurement by
the Distribution Utilities of Power Supply Agreement for the Captive Market” or the Competitive
Selection process (CSP) Policy, the Power Supply Procurement Plan (PSPP) Report is hereby created,
pursuant to the Section 4 of the said Circular.
The PSPP refers to the DUs’ plan for the acquisition of a variety of demand-side and supply-side
resources to cost-effectively meet the electricity needs of its customers. The PSPP is an integral
part of the Distribution Utilities’ Distribution Development Plan (DDP) and must be submitted to
the Department of Energy with supported Board Resolution and/or notarized Secretary’s
Certificate.
The Third-Party Bids and Awards Committee (TPBAC), Joint TPBAC or Third Party Auctioneer (TPA)
shall submit to the DOE and in the case of Electric Cooperatives (ECs), through the National
Electrification Administration (NEA) the following:
All Distribution Utilities’ shall follow and submit the attached report to the Department of Energy
for posting on the DOE CSP Portal. For ECs such reports shall be submitted to DOE and NEA. The
NEA shall review the submitted report within ten (10) working days upon receipt prior to its
submission to DOE for posting at the DOE CSP Portal.
The content of the PSSP shall be consistent with the DDP. The tables and graph format to be use on
the PSPP report is provided on the following sheets. Further, the PSPP shall contain the following
sections:
I. Table of Contents
II. Introduction
III. Energy and Demand Forecast (10 year historical and forecast)
IV. Energy Sales and Purchase
V. Daily Load Profile and Load Duration Curve
VI. Existing Contracts & Existing GenCos due diligence report
VII. Currently approved SAGR for Off-Grid ECs to be passed-on to consumers;
VIII. DU’s Current Supply and Demand
IX. Distribution Impact Study
X. Schedule of Power Supply Procurement
XI. Timeline of the CSP
For inquiries, you may send it at [email protected] or you may contact us through telephone
numbers (02) 840-2173 and (02) 479-2900 local 202.
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction 1
Energy Sales and Purchase 2
Demand 3
Forecasting Model 4
Load Profile and Load Curve Duration 5
MixSupply Vs. Demand and the Optimal Supply 6
List of Existing Contracts and Details 7
Distribution Impact Study 8
Load Flow Analysis 9
Annex (10 Year Monthly Data) 10-12
Schedule of CSP 13
INTRODUCTION
DISTRIBUTION UTILITIES PROFILE
SORECO II' serve a total of six municipalities and 1 city in its franchise area at the
northern part of the province of Sorsogon, with a total area of 1134 square
kilometres. Presently, SORECO II head office is located at Brgy. Buhatan, Sorsogon
City and managed by Atty. Percival G. Alvarez, with the cooperation of eight (8)
members of the Board of Directors headed by Mr. Aurelio D. Destacamento as
President, 263 Regular employees and 1 Probationary employee, wherein 109 of it
are office workers and 154 are assigned at field. On May 2017, SORECO II was rated
"Category A" by NEA thru its KPS for the year 2016. As of Dec.2017, SORECO II's
Collection Efficiency and System Loss are 95.06% and 11.43%, respectively. Whole
coverage area comprises a total of 1707 sitios and as of December 2017, there were
Number of
ACTUAL FORECAST
Customer
Connections 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Residential 83647 84914 89104 93706 98758 104297 110361 116987 124213 132076 140614
Commercial 2493 2621.43 2758.4 2916.5 3097.4 3302.4 3533.3 3791.5 4078.66 4396.3 4746
Industrial 13 16 17 18 20 21 23 25 27 29 31
Others 1887 1894.72 1957.1 2031.2 2118.6 2220.6 2338.8 2474.6 2629.62 2805.2 3003
Contestable Customers 1served by1RES 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
88040 89446 93836
Total (Captive Customers) 98672 103993 109841 116256 123278 130948 139306 148394
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POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
ENERGY HISTORICAL
SALES AND 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Energy Sales (MWh) 48474 53300 60502 59416 65385 72934 71544 84866 103873 116903
Energy Purchase (MWh)61142 64923 71858 70653 77753 84167 82839 96650 110178 124832
System Loss (MWh) 12668 11623 11356 11237 12368 11233 11294 11784 6304.9 7929.4
ENERGY FORECAST
SALES AND 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Energy Sales (MWh) 121302 132560 144998.9 158675 173646 189965 207691 226879 247585 269865
130832
Energy Purchase (MWh) 144459 159797.4 176962 196068 217230 240563 266181 294201 324736
System Loss (MWh) 9530 11899 14799 18287 22422 27264 32872 39303 46616 54872
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
FORECAST
YEARS
Historical data shows that there is an steady growth on energy sales and purchase wherein there is a
consistency of higher growth rate for the energy sales over the energy purchase which is a good indicator
for attaining a lower system loss. Significant increase on the growth rate can be observed on year 2009
and 2010. However, 2011 it drops down a bit and recovers again on 2012 and the years that follow
making a substantial growth. With the growth rate of about 18%, 13% and 10% for year 2015, 2016, 2017
respectively, the projected energy sales and purchase ramp up for the next five years.
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DEMAND
Demand HISTORICAL
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Coincident Peak
12.85 12.79 14.75 13.12 14.49 19.42 19.66 21.68 20.25 22.0
Demand (MW)
HISTORICAL
Demand
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Coincident Peak
24.1 25.72 27.47 29.41 31.56 33.92 36.52 39.36 42.44 45.8
Demand (MW)
24.1 25.7160207
14.64072539
14.09187571
12.85736683
11.09359064
9.542320704
7.964081418
7.273476713 8.648936263
8.285414706
6.298728349
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HISTORICAL
Years
As shown in the historical data, signicant growth on the demand is noted in year 2010 and 2013
and steadily grows up to 2015 with an slight decrease on 2016. For 2017 the growth ramps up a
subtantial rate at about 7.94% wherein it serves take-off point and has a great impact on the
projected demand for the next 5 years. The leap on the demand was atttributed to series of
openings of new commercial centers at the city from the last quarter of 2016 up to 2017. The
following table shows the forecasting method used
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POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
Accuracy
Model No. Forecasting Model Model Description Validity Tests Remarks
Tests
Adj R^2: (>0.99) ; t- (Pass/Fail)
1 L(t) = a + bt Linear Trend Stat: (>2, <-2); P- + or - 3%
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POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
Blue Line correspond to the base load which is about 7.5 MW; Green Line for the mid-merit at
about 17 MW; and Yellow Line for the Peak load which is 22 MW.
5
MIXSUPPLY VS DEMAND AND THE OPTIMAL SUPPLY
ACTUAL FORECAST
Supply Demand
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Peak Demand, MW 21.99435 24.14872 25.71602 27.46529 29.40836 31.55705 33.92317 36.51856 39.35503 42.4444 45.79849
Supply Contracted, MW 11.6 11.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6
GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant Ltd. Co. 11 11 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
SUWECO 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Generation Plant Name 3
Supply for PSA Approval, MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Generation Plant Name 1
Generation Plant Name 2
Generation Plant Name 3
Uncontracted Demand, MW 10.39435 12.54872 17.11602 18.86529 20.80836 22.95705 25.32317 27.91856 30.75503 33.8444 37.19849
Supply vs Demand
50
40
30
MW
20
10
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
ACTUAL FORECAST
YEARS
Supply Contracted, MW Supply for PSA Approval, MW Uncontracted Demand, MW Peak Demand, MW
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POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
Our contracted demand was 11 MW from GN Power for 1st to 60th months with minimum quantity of 53,865,240 kWh and minimum of 65% capacity
factor and for 61st month to 180th month the contracted capacity will be decreasd to 8MW with 39,174,720 minimum quantity and minimum of 65%
capacity factor. At the 1st year of the PSA SORECO II's exposure to WESM is about 44%, the following year it reduces to 34% and goes steady by 31% to
34% on year that follows. Hence, with GNPower full operation with exemption of maintenance outages, 65% of SORECO II's supply comes from said GenCo.
SORECO II has also an exisiting Joint Venture Agreement to SUWECO, with 600 KW synchronized on the 13.8 kV Distribution System and serves as the
supply for the base load of the Peter Paul Philippines Corporation.
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POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
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POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
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9
10 Year Monthly Data
Contracted and For
Uncontracted Demand
Forecast PSA Approval Committed for CSP
and Energy
Demand and Energy
Year Coinciden Uncontra
Off Peak Energy Uncontracte
t Peak Demand Energy cted Demand Energy
Demand Requirement d Energy
Demand (MW) (MWh) Demand (MW) (MWh)
(MW) (MWh) (MWh)
(MW) (MW)
2018
Jan 18.25 6.61 8,021.73 11.60 - 6.65 (608.67)
Feb 17.85 6.30 8,957.54 11.60 - 6.25 327.54
Mar 19.74 8.26 9,016.42 11.60 - 8.14 1,221.22
Apr 23.04 8.55 10,759.08 11.60 - 11.44 2,128.68
May 22.29 11.23 12,179.54 11.60 - 10.69 3,827.54
Jun 24.51 10.73 13,302.27 11.60 - 12.91 4,671.87
Jul 22.29 10.46 12,480.80 11.60 - 10.69 4,128.80
Aug 24.77 11.38 12,539.65 11.60 - 13.17 3,909.25
Sep 25.04 10.51 11,962.28 11.60 - 13.44 3,331.88
Oct 25.57 10.72 11,568.10 11.60 - 13.97 3,216.10
Nov 23.86 10.05 11,543.27 11.60 - 12.26 2,912.87
Dec 23.68 8.13 11,075.26 11.60 - 12.08 2,723.26
2019
Jan 19.62 7.63 9,035.47 11.60 - 8.02 405.07
Feb 18.83 7.27 9,101.55 11.60 - 7.23 749.55
Mar 20.96 9.54 9,562.12 8.60 - 11.36 3,782.92 8.00
Apr 26.18 9.88 11,213.78 8.60 - 16.58 4,815.38 8.00
May 23.76 12.97 12,959.41 8.60 - 14.16 6,767.41 8.00
Jun 27.54 11.74 14,471.86 8.60 - 17.94 8,073.46 8.00
Jul 24.07 11.46 14,308.16 8.60 - 14.47 8,116.16 8.00
Aug 27.90 13.14 13,402.70 8.60 - 18.30 7,004.30 8.00
Sep 28.55 12.14 12,282.80 8.60 - 18.95 5,884.40 8.00
Oct 29.79 12.38 11,936.79 8.60 - 20.19 5,744.79 8.00
Nov 26.97 11.61 12,083.53 8.60 - 17.37 5,685.13 8.00
Dec 26.73 9.39 11,599.35 8.60 - 17.13 5,407.35 8.00
2020
Jan 21.10 8.36 10,177.30 8.60 - 11.50 3,778.90 8.00
Feb 19.86 7.96 9,247.87 8.60 - 10.26 2,849.47 8.00
Mar 22.26 10.45 10,140.84 8.60 - 12.66 4,361.64 8.00
Apr 29.75 10.82 11,687.69 8.60 - 20.15 5,289.29 8.00
May 25.33 14.20 13,789.21 8.60 - 15.73 7,597.21 8.00
Jun 30.94 13.31 15,744.29 8.60 - 21.34 9,345.89 8.00
Jul 26.00 13.17 16,403.07 8.60 - 16.40 10,211.07 8.00
Aug 31.42 14.38 14,325.14 8.60 - 21.82 7,926.74 8.00
Sep 32.57 13.29 12,611.91 8.60 - 22.97 6,213.51 8.00
Oct 34.70 13.56 12,317.23 8.60 - 25.10 6,125.23 8.00
Nov 30.48 12.71 12,649.08 8.60 - 20.88 6,250.68 8.00
Dec 30.18 10.28 12,148.24 8.60 - 20.58 5,956.24 8.00
2021
Jan 25.66 8.70 11,688.76 8.60 - 16.06 5,290.36 8.00
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POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
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POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
2025
Jan 39.82 13.49 18,138.70 8.60 - 30.22 11,740.30 10.00
Feb 39.53 12.86 19,182.68 8.60 - 29.93 12,784.28 10.00
Mar 42.53 16.87 18,547.93 8.60 - 32.93 12,768.73 10.00
Apr 46.10 17.46 22,958.35 8.60 - 36.50 16,559.95 10.00
May 48.95 22.93 25,918.17 8.60 - 39.35 19,726.17 10.00
Jun 50.55 21.87 27,657.26 8.60 - 40.95 21,258.86 10.00
Jul 48.06 20.19 24,859.82 8.60 - 38.46 18,667.82 10.00
Aug 50.81 23.22 26,939.76 8.60 - 41.21 20,541.36 10.00
Sep 50.99 21.45 26,146.71 8.60 - 41.39 19,748.31 10.00
Oct 50.52 21.88 25,093.95 8.60 - 40.92 18,901.95 10.00
Nov 48.96 20.52 24,754.62 8.60 - 39.36 18,356.22 10.00
Dec 48.52 16.60 23,164.32 8.60 - 38.92 16,972.32 10.00
2026
Jan 43.65 14.79 19,880.30 8.60 - 34.05 13,481.90 10.00
Feb 43.33 14.09 21,024.52 8.60 - 33.73 14,626.12 10.00
Mar 46.61 18.49 20,328.83 8.60 - 37.01 14,549.63 10.00
Apr 50.53 19.14 25,162.72 8.60 - 40.93 18,764.32 10.00
May 53.65 25.13 28,406.72 8.60 - 44.05 22,214.72 10.00
Jun 55.40 24.78 30,312.79 8.60 - 45.80 23,914.39 10.00
Jul 52.68 24.46 27,246.76 8.60 - 43.08 21,054.76 10.00
Aug 55.68 25.45 29,526.40 8.60 - 46.08 23,128.00 10.00
Sep 55.89 23.51 28,657.20 8.60 - 46.29 22,258.80 10.00
Oct 55.37 23.99 27,503.36 8.60 - 45.77 21,311.36 10.00
Nov 53.66 22.49 27,131.45 8.60 - 44.06 20,733.05 10.00
Dec 53.18 18.20 25,388.46 8.60 - 43.58 19,196.46 10.00
2027
Jan 45.35 15.37 20,654.60 8.60 - 35.75 14,256.20 10.00
Feb 45.02 14.64 21,843.38 8.60 - 35.42 15,444.98 10.00
Mar 48.43 19.21 21,120.59 8.60 - 38.83 15,341.39
Apr 52.50 19.88 26,142.75 8.60 - 42.90 19,744.35
May 55.74 26.11 29,513.11 8.60 - 46.14 23,321.11
Jun 57.56 25.62 31,493.41 8.60 - 47.96 25,095.01
Jul 54.73 25.02 28,307.96 8.60 - 45.13 22,115.96
Aug 57.85 26.44 30,676.39 8.60 - 48.25 24,277.99
Sep 58.07 24.43 29,773.34 8.60 - 48.47 23,374.94
Oct 57.53 24.92 28,574.56 8.60 - 47.93 22,382.56
Nov 55.75 23.36 28,188.17 8.60 - 46.15 21,789.77
Dec 55.25 18.91 26,377.28 8.60 - 45.65 20,185.28
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POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
SCHEDULE OF CSP
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