Description Ananlysis
Description Ananlysis
Description Ananlysis
Page 1 of 198
1.1 INTRODUCTION
1.5.1 MEANING
1.5.2 MEASUREMENT
1.5.3 MANAGEMENT
1.6.1 MEANING
1.6.2 MEASUREMENT
1.6.3 MANAGEMENT
1.7.1 MEANING
1.7.2 MEASUREMENT
1.7.3 MANAGEMENT
1.9 CONCLUSION
Page 2 of 198
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Lucouw (2004:82) said that risk is necessary for a business to fulfill its
mission and that it isn't a totally negative force that should be avoided
at all cost. Risk is one of the most important factors that contribute
towards development because when potentially risky situations occur,
new possibilities become evident and improvements can take place
(Lucouw, 2004:85). Risk doesn't just offer danger, but also opportunities
and new resources, which can drive innovation and the development of
new theories, methods and tools for further enhancement.
Page 2 of 198
Brealey and Myers (2003:753-755) stated that companies need to take
risks in order to add value to their business. They said that most of the
time companies consider risk to be God-given, which is not always true.
Managers can reduce the risks the company takes by building flexibility
into their operations, e.g. a petrochemical plant that is designed to use
either oil or natural gas, reduces the impact of an unfavourable
movement in fuel prices. Managers should not avoid all risks but if
exposure to risks for which there are no compensating rewards could be
reduced, larger bets can be placed when the odds are in the favour of
the company.
Page 3 of 198
Valsamakis (1996:13) argued that however management-orientated the
definition of risk management may be, it becomes an academic issue
with little meaning unless what is implied is put into practice. The
underlying implication of the definition is that a systematic approach to
the management of risk is definitely necessary, and that this becomes
more obvious when one attempts to consider the risk challenges of the
future. He further states that there is no doubt that today the general
world is filled with uncertainty, and to identify clear trends for the
future is indeed difficult and even subjective. In this era of rapid and
indeed accelerating change, one should view the discipline of risk
management as a mechanism for coping with the effects of change.
From such efforts a range of possible futures can be constructed,
leading to better decisions and more effective business management.
Page 4 of 198
The increasing concentration of risk
The increasing awareness of risk
The decline of insurance as a risk-financing technique.
Over the years during which risk management has evolved, there has
developed a substantial body of literature aiming to provide a routine,
if not a discipline, to ensure corporate survival in the face of risk
(Valsamakis, 1996:15). Such thinking has led to the present
understanding of risk management as a process comprising the
following four discrete stages.
Risk identification
Risk quantification
Risk control directed at loss elimination, or more usually, loss
reduction and
Risk financing via transfer.
Page 5 of 198
Valsamakis (1996:16) said this assertion is not altogether unexpected as
insurance brokers, who, by the nature of these businesses, have a strong
leaning toward insurance and extensively market the concept of risk
management. Kloman (1987:62) said that as long as risk managers over-
emphasize insurance buying and managing, they will be incapable of
responding to the real needs of their organizations.
These regulations are here to stay and they will probably be enforced
more formally in the future. The choice a company director has is
whether to comply with regulations like King II for the sake of
compliance or because it simply makes good business sense. Whatever
the choice, there will be certain issues that will have to be faced when
implementing risk management in a company (Wessels, 2003).
Page 6 of 198
From the above, the conclusion can be drawn that risk is inevitable and
risk-taking is an essential requirement for any dynamic business that is
seeking continued success. It is the attitude towards risk that will
determine the company's success in the end, because risks should not be
avoided but managed within predetermined risk appetite parameters.
Risk can be defined in many different ways but in common terms most
people will suggest that “risk is the possibility of adverse consequences
happening" (Olsson, 2002:5). In general, risk is mostly viewed from a
negative perspective and attention usually focuses on potential losses,
but the possibility is always there that a lot of benefits can be obtained
by taking risks. Therefore, the definition adopted by Olsson (2002:5)
that "... risk is the uncertainty of future outcomes", is a better
description of risk. From a risk management point of view there is the
uncertainty about
Herman and Head (2002) stated that risk exists simply because of the
possibility that the future may be surprisingly different from what was
expected. These surprises could bring either good or bad results
generating threats of losses or creating opportunities for gains. Mostly,
a risk will contain both and the objective will be to determine if the
gains will outbalance the losses.
Das (2001) averred that risk appears to be one of the most commonly
abused concepts in social science and researchers often differ
significantly in respect of their constructs of risk. Economic sciences
define risk as a condition in which decision makers know the possible
consequences of the decisions, as well as their associated probabilities.
In strategic management it is seldom that all possible decision
consequences and their probabilities are known, thus risk is often used
as if it is the equivalent of "uncertainty" or "unpredictable consequences
or probabilities". Seen in this context, strategic management scholars
refer to risk as the variance in performance beyond the control of
decision makers. What seems obvious in recent years, according to
literature on strategy, is that managers think of risk only as "down-side"
possibilities and they are more concerned with negative variations in
performance.
Page 8 of 198
Alijoyo (2002:3) defined risk as the chance of something happening that
will have an impact upon objectives. He further said that risk is equal to
uncertainty and the higher the uncertainty is, the higher the risk of
doing business becomes. The target is to achieve a proper balance
between risks incurred and potential returns to shareholders. This
requires Board of Directors to ensure that there are systems in place that
effectively monitor and manage these risks with a view to the long-term
viability of the company.
Page 9 of 198
of increased profits. Some companies will often prefer the certainty of a
smaller profit rather than an exposure to financial risk that could result
in a higher profit, but also contains the possibility of a loss.
Page 11 of 198
1.4 WHAT IS FINANCIAL RISK?
Financial risk may be defined as the potential for cash flows or asset
values to vary from expectations due to changes in prices. This
definition also gives an indicator of the measurement of risk: the more
volatile the price, the greater the risk.
1.5.1 MEANING
Christopher L. Culp (2001:18) said that market risk arises from the event
of a change in some market-determined asset price, reference rate (e.g.,
LIBOR), or index. The events define market risk can be separated into
two categories. The first type of event that generates market risk defines
Page 13 of 198
market risk based on the type of asset class whose price changes are
impacting the exposure in question. A common form of asset class-
based market risk is known as interest rate risk, or the risk that the
balance sheet assets, liabilities, & off-balance sheet items of a firm –
including its derivatives – will change in value as interest rates change.
Other asset class-driven classifications of market risk include changes in
the value of an exposure attributable to fluctuations in exchange rates,
commodity prices, & equity values.
Dun & Bradstreet (2010: 15-30) identified market risk as the risk of
losses due to movements in financial market variables. These may be
interest rates, foreign exchange rates, security prices, etc. Thus, market
risk is the risk of fluctuations in portfolio value because of movements
in such variables. Further, market risks can be categorized into:
Price Risk
Price is a market-driven measure of value. The possibility of not
realizing the expected price is called the price risk. Thus, price risk
may be seen as an unfavourable movement in the price of a
commodity, security or other obligations. It can be classified into
following categories:
- Symmetrical vs. Unsymmetrical
- Absolute vs. Relative
- Directional & non-Directional
- Asset Liquidity
- Discontinuity & Event
- Concentration
- Credit Spread
Page 14 of 198
- Volatility
Forex Risk
Forex risk occurs when a company is involved in international
business and the cash in or outflows are in a foreign exchange rate.
As this rate is not fixed and cannot be fully anticipated a possible
change in a foreign exchange rate leads to the risk of changes in the
amount of a payable / receivable and by that a change in the amount
of money the company has to pay / will receive. This risk is
measured by the concept of transaction exposure. Furthermore,
economic exposure can be included in the evaluation of exchange
rate risk. This includes changes in the quantity of future sales due to
changes in the exchange rate and therefore relative competitiveness
of the company. However, the prediction of this sensitivity is
difficult and hardly measurable and thus the company cannot
manage this risk actively. Most firms therefore concentrate on
transaction exposure and by that on the price change and not the
quantity change caused by the exchange rate volatility.
Country Risk
A firm may transform itself into an international one when it starts
lending across its borders or invests in instruments issued by foreign
organizations. When the firm starts doing so, the first risk that it
encounters is country risk. This is also called sovereign risk. There
are number of factors like economic, political, socio-community,
legal, etc. that have a bearing on a level of risk associated with a
particular country.
Page 15 of 198
Liquidity Risk
Liquidity risk is of two types:
- Funding risk is the inability to raise funds at normal cost.
- Asset liquidity risk is the lack of trading depth in the market
for a security or class of assets.
An institution might lose liquidity if its credit ratings fall, it
experiences sudden, unexpected cash outflows, or some other event
causes counterparties to avoid trading with or lending to the
institution. A firm is also exposed to liquidity risk if markets on
which it depends are subject to loss of liquidity.
Page 16 of 198
sensitivity caused by interest rate changes can also be regarded as
part of the interest rate risk. However, similar to economic exposure
of foreign exchange rate risk, also the prediction of this sensitivity is
also difficult and hardly measurable. It is therefore in practice
ignored for most products and companies.
Technology Risk
Technology is the backbone of every business. It needs a lot of
money, time & effort in order to be implemented. The primary
objective of investment is operational efficiency in terms of
economies of scale & of scope. However, if the system
implementation is too slow or the performance is ineffective, the risk
is that the entire investment may not result in adequate repayment.
In extreme cases, it could even hamper efficiency. In such an
eventuality, it would have a negative impact on the survival &
growth of the organization.
1.5.2 MEASUREMENT
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is also known as the ‘what if’ analysis. It is a
useful tool to determine how the changes in the market could
Page 17 of 198
affect the value of the portfolio. The market risk factors are
market variables like interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices,
exchange rates, etc.
Scenario Analysis
This is similar to sensitivity analysis in the sense that this
approach also tries to determine the portfolio value if the market
risk factors change. However in this approach, instead of
changing the risk factors one by one, different scenarios with
simultaneous changes in all risk factors are considered.
In scenario analysis, expert opinion is used to create a limited set
of worst case scenarios. Each scenario corresponds to a specific
type of market crises, like crash of the equity market, increase in
oil prices, increase in interest rates, etc. Typically, some 5 – 10
worst case scenarios are constructed.
The steps in scenario analysis are as follows:
1. Choose 5 -10 scenarios that would adversely affect the markets
in which the company operates.
2. Estimate the changes in each risk factor(s) given the scenario.
3. Value the portfolio under the given scenario.
4. Test the portfolio on a daily basis to estimate the probable loss
under each scenario.
5. Review & update the scenarios periodically.
Stress Testing
Stress testing achieves a very different risk management objective
as compared to VaR. Its purpose is to examine the impact of
extreme events on the portfolio. This test thus deals with the
Page 18 of 198
ability of the business to survive extreme conditions & implement
changes in strategy. It provides a deeper understanding of the
risk & thereby prepares a ground for better protection. This can
also be used to understand how new products will respond to
extreme conditions. Thus, investment risks can be better assessed
before the business becomes involved. Stress testing can be
applied to test market risk & derivatives & also operational,
credit & counterparty risk.
Some examples of extreme events are:
- The October 1987 crash of more than 20% in one day in the US
Equities market followed by a contagion effect in other
markets.
- The 1990 Nikkei crash
- The rise in US interest rates by about 250 basis points in 1994
- The Mexican Peso crises in 1994 & Latin America crises in 1995
- The East Asian crises in 1997
- The 1998 LTCM crises
- The Russian crises where the Russian Ruble fell by 29% in
1998
- The 1999 Brazil crises
Page 19 of 198
- Contagion effect
A crisis in one market gets passed on to other markets &
normal correlations go haywire. All markets get highly
correlated with each other & accentuate the risk.
- Speed of price shocks
Shock waves spread rapidly & normal assumptions made in
derivative transactions do not hold any more.
- Liquidity issues
Liquidity dries up in most markets & exit from a position
becomes very difficult.
- Concentration
Under normal circumstances, concentration allows market
leadership. However in extreme conditions, it creates the risk
of a near fatal loss.
Stress tests are carried out with reference to some extreme events
& can be categorized as follows:
- Market Moves
o Parallel shifts in the yield curve
o Yield curve could twist
o Basis (e.g. interest rate differential) changes
o Swap & other credit spreads
o Currency devaluations
o Volatility changes & twists in the term structure of
volatility
o Price shifts
o Liquidity
o Credit tightening
o Contagion effects
Page 20 of 198
o Speed & duration of extreme market moves
- Modeling assumptions to be stress tested
o Yield curve interpolation & creation
o Pricing models, e.g. option pricing
o Models used for trading hedging strategies
o Volatilities
o Correlations
- Product complexity
o Derivatives
o Mortgages
o Structured products with embedded multiple risks
o Products with a wide range of acceptable prices
o Difficulty in handling risks & asset types
o Emerging markets & difficult to handle markets
- Credit
o Name concentration
o Industry concentration
o Concentration across client segments
o Contingent credit exposures, particularly of derivatives
Approaches to stress testing
- Historical event analysis: Examines what happens if the
extreme event occurs again
- Scenario analysis: Develops scenarios based on historical
events and examine the Outcome for such scenarios
- Institution specific scenario analysis: Scenarios are developed
based on the events relevant to the bank or institutional
portfolio
Page 21 of 198
- Extreme standard deviation scenarios: Examines what could
happen if the returns vary by 5-, 6-, 10-standard deviations
- Extreme incremental events and Tail risk: Quantifies a set of
progressively severe market moves or events and the loss that
can ensure
- Quantitative evaluation of tail events: Examines whether there
is any pattern in the tail events and uses the results in scenario
analysis
Page 22 of 198
This number summarizes the company’s exposure to market risk as
well as the probability of an adverse move. Shareholders and
managers can then decide whether they feel comfortable with this
level of risk. If the answer is no, the process that led to the
computation of VaR can be used to decide where to trim risk. VaR
takes into account both portfolio diversification and leverage effects.
Various methods are possible to compute Value At Risk. These
methods basically differ in terms of:
• Distributional assumptions for the risk factors (e.g. normal versus
other distributions)
• Linear vs. full valuation, where the former approximates the
exposure to risk factors by a linear mode
Some of the important methods for measuring VaR are:
1. Delta Method
2. Historical Simulation Method
3. Monte Carlo Method
1. Delta-Normal Method
This method assumes that the individual asset returns are normally
distributed. Since the portfolio return is a linear combination of asset
returns, it is also normally distributed. The variance-covariance
matrix and correlations for all risk factors are computed from
historical data for a period of 3- 5 years. Once this is done, the
portfolio risk is computed by using forecasts of volatility and
correlations for each risk factor and the exposure to these risk
factors.
Page 23 of 198
2. Historical Simulation Method
This method is similar to the Delta Normal method in that it also
uses historical data of asset returns and the exposure to these risk
factors. The difference is that this return does not represent an actual
portfolio but rather reconstructs the history of a hypothetical
portfolio using the current position. Both the methods would
generate the same VaR if asset returns are all normally distributed.
Comparison of Methods
1. Delta-normal method
This is the simplest method to implement. The drawback
however, is that it assumes that all risk factors are normally
distributed and that all assets are linear in risk.
2. Historical Simulation Method
This is also relatively simple. The drawback to this is that only
one sample path is used for simulation, which may not
adequately represent future distributions.
Page 24 of 198
3. Monte Carlo Method
This is the most sophisticated method. It accommodates even
non-normal distributions and non-linear assets, but requires
work on computers and a good understanding of the
underlying stochastic process.
Gap analysis
Interest rate risk arises in those companies where their assets &
liabilities generally have their interest rates reset at different
times. This leaves net interest income (interest earned on assets
Page 25 of 198
less interest paid on liabilities) vulnerable to changes in market
interest rates. The magnitude of interest rate risk depends on the
degree of mismatch between the changes in asset & liability
interest rates.
Rate-shift scenarios
Rate-shift scenarios attempt to capture the behavior of customers
as a result of a given change in interest rates. For example, if the
rates are expected to go up by 1%, what will be the effect on the
company’s cash flows? The NPV of this new set of cash flows is
calculated using the new rates.
This helps in arriving at the changes in earnings & value expected
under different interest rate scenarios.
Page 26 of 198
Simulation methods
In this technique, the impact of various risks like market risk,
interest rate risk, etc. on a company’s financial position, asset
values, earnings or net income is examined. Simulation can be
carried out for a static or dynamic environment. While the
current on-& off-balance sheet positions are evaluated under
static environment, the dynamic simulation builds on more
detailed assumptions about the future course of interest rates &
unexpected changes in the company’s activity. The output of
simulation can be in a variety of forms, depending on the need of
the users. Simulation can provide current & expected periodic
gaps, duration gaps, balance sheet & income statements,
performance measures, budget & financial reports. The
simulation model is an effective tool for understanding the risk
exposure in different interest rates/balance sheet scenarios. This
technique also plays an integral planning role in evaluating the
effect of alternative business strategies on risk exposures. Its
usefulness depends on the structure of the model, the validity of
its assumptions, technology support & technical expertise of
companies. The application of various techniques depends to a
large extent on the quality of data & the degree of automation.
Thus, companies may utilize the gap or simulation techniques,
based on the availability of data, information of technology &
technical expertise.
Page 27 of 198
1.5.3 MANAGEMENT
1.6.1 MEANING
Counterparty risk, thus, is the risk to each party of a contract that the
other will not live up to its contractual obligation. In most financial
contracts, this risk is known as default risk.
In the case of a pure lending transaction, this risk takes the form of
credit risk. The performance of credit transaction is linked to the
performance of the borrower's business. This, in turn, is dependent on
the performance of the economy, industry, and management of the
specific business. In case of investment transactions including both
purchase and sale, counterparty risk would arise where the securities
have been delivered but the corresponding funds have not been
received; or alternatively, funds have been paid but the related
securities have not been received. This risk could also arise in derivative
transactions, where the company is trying to protect its exposure.
However, this protection is dependent on the compliance of the
counterparty regarding its contractual obligations. Further, when a
company has invested in a security (particularly in the form of bonds or
debentures), the performance of this instrument is dependent on the
Page 29 of 198
financial solvency of the issuer. This could then be called as issuer risk
that could arise on default in payment of interest or in repayment of
principal by the issuer.
Pre-settlement Risk
Pre-settlement risk is the bankruptcy of the counterparty (or some other
event which impairs the ability of counterparty to perform its
obligation) prior to settlement. In such a case, the risk of the
organization is not 100% but the replacement value of the original
contract.
Page 30 of 198
Settlement Risk
Settlement risk arises with respect to the settlement of a transaction.
Settlement often involves two parties, each with its own obligations -
for example, one party buying the bond and the other delivering it. The
risk in such a situation is that one party may perform its obligation
while the other does not. Unlike pre-settlement risk, where the
exposure is the net value of the two obligations, in settlement risk the
exposure is the entire value of the counterparty's obligation.
Page 31 of 198
Basel Committee (in its supervisory guidance issued in July 1999 on this
subject) states that this risk arises when counterparty pays the currency
it sold but does not receive the currency it bought. According to the
consultative paper issued by the Basel Committee on Banking
Supervision, July 1999, foreign exchange settlement failures can arise
from counterparty default, operational problems and market liquidity
constraints among other factors. Foreign exchange settlement risk
clearly has a credit risk dimension. If a company cannot make the
payment of the currency it sold conditional upon its final receipt or the
currency it bought, it faces the possibility of losing the entire principal
value of the transaction. However foreign exchange settlement risk also
has an important dimension of liquidity risk. Even temporary delays in
settlement can expose a receiving company to liquidity pressures if
obligations to other parties have to be met. Such exposure can be severe
if the unsettled amounts are large and alternative sources of funds must
be raised at short notice in turbulent or unreceptive markets. The Basel
Committee has recommended, therefore that (as with other forms of
risk), the development of counterparty settlement limits and the
monitoring of exposures is a critical control function and should form
the basis of a company’s foreign exchange settlement risk management
process.
1.6.2 MEASUREMENT
There are many sources of credit risk. The amount of credit risk
depends upon the structure of the agreement between the company and
its customers. An agreement between a company and a customer that
Page 32 of 198
gives rise to a credit exposure is called a credit structure or a credit
facility.
1. Risk measurement for a single credit facility
2. Risk measurement for a credit portfolio
Page 33 of 198
Loss given Default (LGD)
In the event of a default, the fraction of exposure that can be recovered
through bankruptcy proceedings or some other form of settlement is
given by the equation:
Expected loss = PD x EAD x LGD
Expected loss is covered through pricing of the company’s products
and services. Unexpected loss is the variability about this mean loss,
which should be covered through adequate capital allocation or
provisioning.
Page 34 of 198
These models are:
• The Covariance Model
• The Actuarial Model
• The Merton-Based Simulation Model
• The Macroeconomic Default Model
Page 35 of 198
• Determining the probability of default for each company
• Grouping the loans in the portfolio according to their sector, size
and LGD.
• Calculating the Poisson distribution of losses, given the mean
probability of default
• Using Gamma distribution to create uncertainty in the mean
probability of default
• Calculating the inverse binomial distribution of losses, given the
uncertainty in the mean probability of default
• Aggregating the groups independent results
However, the actuarial approach suffers from two major drawbacks:
1. Defining the standard deviations of the Gamma functions that
drive the correlations
2. Linking the credit risk with market risks
The Merton simulation model helps in overcoming these difficulties.
Page 36 of 198
• It helps in simulating the market variables in line with the
simulation of asset values; since the same framework is used to
calculate market risk and credit risk, it is easier to link the two.
The main steps in this process are:
Determine the probability of default for each company
Determine the threshold for asset values
Calculate the correlation between asset values
Generate uncorrelated random numbers (n)
Generate uncorrelated random asset values (v)
Record a loss if v for a company is below the critical threshold
Create the distribution of losses
Page 37 of 198
1.6.3 MANAGEMENT
Page 39 of 198
Once the above has been accomplished, one can proceed to the analysis
of financial statements with a focus on the comparison of financial
ratios with industry benchmarks. The cash flow statement reveals a
great deal about the company's financing strategies. Declining firms
may reveal disinvestment of their assets to repay a part of their debt or
capital.
In the end, the cliché "Look at the willingness to repay rather than the
ability to repay" needs to be kept in mind. The management has a
Page 40 of 198
paramount role in coming to a credit decision. A credible and
transparent management significantly enhances credit quality.
Portfolio Level
One should keep in mind that the risk ratings of various debt
instruments and of corporates in general migrate from one class to
another. One way to measure the credit risk at portfolio level is by
assessing the value at risk. This is done by taking into account the rating
migration probability, default probability at various levels of rating and
the recovery rate.
Page 41 of 198
fiscal deficit numbers, etc. When such triggers do happen, appropriate
action may have to be taken to limit further exposures or to shun or
reduce certain industry exposures.
Page 42 of 198
In addition to margins, exchanges also collect collaterals from their
members (the broker-dealers) to meet the eventuality of non-payment
of margin requirements due to market movements.
Limits
The word limit means a ceiling or a maximum amount. The authority of
an officer to execute or approve a particular transaction or deal is one
form of limit. It is also related to an exposure that the firm may have
undertaken with reference to counterparty, an industry or an
instrument. Prudent limits are required, such that the overall risk
undertaken by the firm is properly backed up by capital. Limit setting is
a part of the overall risk management exercise. Therefore, it has to be
done taking into account the risk management strategy and
organization structure. There has to be a proper limit monitoring
mechanism in place, which can often be implemented using
computerized systems.
Risk Diversification
A portfolio is a collection of a number of securities or instruments. One
that is invested in instruments with uncorrelated returns will have an
expected simple return. This is the weighted average of the individual
instruments' returns. Its volatility will be less than the weighted average
of the individual instruments' volatilities. Diversification as seen by this
means that an investor can reduce market risk simply by investing in
many unrelated instruments. The concept is often described by the
saying "Don't put all your eggs in one basket". A central concern of the
portfolio theory is the issue of how investors can use diversification to
optimize their portfolios.
Page 43 of 198
Netting
Netting implies off-setting of payables and receivables arising under
various contracts and net settlement of the payable or receivable with
the counterparty. Essentially, it helps in reducing the settlement risk.
Page 44 of 198
Tracking compliance requirements: The requirements depend on
the complexity, nature and location of businesses
Identification of compliance strategy for new regulations and
ensuring clarity about implementation responsibility
Discussions with regulators to seek clarifications if necessary
Dissemination of compliance statutes throughout the
organization
Preparing and updating an inventory (calendar of returns, Dos
and Don'ts) of the requirements
Reviewing ongoing compliance
Devising internal guidelines and manuals to ensure that the staff
adheres to the code of conduct envisaged by the Board of
Directors for the purpose of corporate governance as well as the
expectations of the regulators
Monitoring with various staff personal trading compliance
requirements
Training of staff in compliance guidelines
Dealing with regulators in case of inspections or investigations
1.7.1 MEANING
Operational risk can be due to several reasons, including ill-defined
procedures and a weak control environment. While technology takes
care of key processing requirements of various customer services, there
have to be effective procedures around the computer system involving
human intervention. Operational risk could arise if these procedures are
Page 45 of 198
not properly documented and examined for robustness. The controls
built into these procedures also have to be properly examined to ensure
that errors are not inadvertently incorporated in processing.
Considering the magnitude of transactions in companies, it is critical
that operational risks are identified in advance and control processes to
mitigate these risks are established. These processes have to be
interlinked with the reporting processes so that all the exposures are
brought to the attention of senior management on a regular and
predictable basis.
Page 46 of 198
• Diary system that help us in follow-up of important events or
actions
• Audit Trails: All amendments, changes or deletions of records
need to be properly tracked and available for a supervisory
review
Frauds
Fraud can be defined as any act or an omission done with a malafide
intention, for personal gain or for the gain of acquaintances by the
perpetrator (internal or external to the organization) that results in an
Page 47 of 198
unauthorized leakage of organizational resources. It could take the form
of a loss of assets (both financial and non-financial) or an increase in
organizational costs, resulting indirectly in a leakage of revenue and
reserves.
Some of the tools that are being used to prevent frauds are as follows:
• Customer identification
• Review of customer activities
• Review of transaction concentration and unusual transactions
• Physical access controls and security arrangements
• Electronic access controls
• Reconciliation and reviews of suspense accounts
Page 48 of 198
• Controls on important stationary
• Dual controls on transaction processing
1.7.2 MEASUREMENT
Qualitative Approaches
As the name suggests, qualitative approaches are based on the
management's judgement of various sources of risk. This does not make
it an arbitrary method. The judgement is based on information collected
through surveys or questionnaires from the management and operating
staff.
Page 49 of 198
Structural Approaches
These approaches use a model of causality that defines a set of linkages
between various processes and the probability of loss events. This helps
managers in concentrating their efforts on those links in the process
which have a high probability of loss.
It may not be possible to use this approach for all operational risks,
although for some well-defined operational risks (like process risk or
business risk) this approach may be useful. In the structural approach,
the flow chart of the process is constructed. Then, the manager tries to
identify the weak links in the process and the expected losses in such an
event. The probability of each link failing can be estimated to quantify
the loss for any given event. For more frequent failure events, the
probability estimation is easier. For less frequent events, this estimate
may be based on managerial judgement.
Actuarial Approaches
These approaches are statistical in nature and hence make minimal
assumptions about the causes and mechanisms of loss. They try to
estimate the parameters of the loss distribution, i.e. they do not identify
the sources of risks but include all of them. Hence, they are better than
qualitative approaches where the management identifies the sources of
risk. In the latter, there is a possibility that an important source of risk
might be overlooked.
Mixed Approaches
These approaches are a combination of all the above. These approaches
use judgement, structure and loss experience to measure the operating
Page 50 of 198
risks. Even the Basel Committee has recommended such an approach to
measure operational risk.
Two main approaches in this category are:
• Historical Loss Mapping
• Key Risk Indicators
Page 51 of 198
for operational risk may include volume of trades processed, volatility
in Profit and Loss account, employee turnover rate, average overtime
per employee, etc.
KRIs are very useful as a management tool. However, till historical data
that supports their connection to loss has been gathered, their usage to
determine the capital charge for operational risk will remain restricted.
1.7.3 MANAGEMENT
Self-Assessment
In this technique, each business unit identifies the nature and size of
operational risk subjectively. It is necessary to pinpoint high impact
events as well as their probabilities. Events that when combined could
have a significant effect require appropriate monitoring.
Page 52 of 198
Audit
An audit of the business processes and controls by an external agency is
an essential process for operational risk control. Wherever necessary,
the audit can take the form of concurrent audit or even pre-audit. With
the use of technology, information systems audit has also become
necessary.
Segregation of Duties
There has to be a segregation of duties so that no one person carries
through a transaction from beginning to end. This segregation results in
the separation of functions into front office, mid-office and back office.
The reporting lines for these functions should be independent till it
reaches the level of senior management that is not directly involved in
trading decisions.
Authorizations
The delegation of authority at all levels of the organization should be
clearly defined. This is particularly important in terms of the authority
to trade, settle trades, sign cheques, etc.
Independent Confirmation
An independent confirmation from the back office of the counterparty
is an important operational control. This practice averts the possibility
of financial losses at a later date. Also, in case of securities like a bank
guarantee, letter of credit or deposit receipt, it is important to get an
independent confirmation from the issuing bank to ensure its
genuineness.
Page 53 of 198
Use of Technology
Technology brings consistency in processing and minimizes stress-
related errors. One needs to take advantage of this. Wherever straight
through processing is possible, systems should be allowed to talk to
each other without human intervention. Technology, however, entails a
different set of risks (as discussed elsewhere) and this need to be
controlled.
Model Validation
Models are constructed based on certain assumptions and formulae. It
is important that modes are rigorously tested and verified, as also any
changes in existing models.
Dual Controls
The system input should be independently checked and approved. This
reduces the possibility of errors within the system. Often organizations
insist on joint authorization for activities such as cheque payments and
procurement orders to ensure an independent application of mind.
Reconciliation
Reconciliation of two independent records is an important control.
Outputs from two different records, like profit estimates of the dealer
and profit calculations by the mid-office, should be reconciled.
Process Manuals
Processes should be documented as far as possible through operations
manuals. They provide clarity regarding the steps involved in various
processes and the responsibility of carrying them out. The ownership of
Page 54 of 198
each process and step should be clearly defined and communicated. In
defining the process, various viewpoints such as tax, legal & accounting
need to be taken into account. It is important that each change in the
process is properly documented. These manuals can be used for
training new personnel and also help in reengineering processes when
change in the external or internal environment demands it.
Tickler Systems
For all important dates or events, alerts must be built into the system so
that the appropriate action can be initiated well in advance. An example
is a date of expiry of collateral, such as a guarantee deposited by a client
or a member of the stock exchange.
Departmental Checklists
Along with the operations manual, it is critical to develop departmental
checklists that provide details of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly,
biannual and annual tasks that have to be performed, along with the
responsible person. These checklists must be signed off by the
responsible person on completion of the task. S/he would be held
accountable in case of failure.
Page 55 of 198
be struck off and new numbers or data rewritten in a way that the
original entry is still visible.
Verification of Prices
Mid-office must take/calculate market/current prices independently
and check if any price is out of line. These out of line prices could be
used to manipulate the profit/loss of the trading book or derivative
positions.
Code of Conduct
This is a necessity to manage not only operational but also reputation
risk. The code should specify what is expected from the employees and
the management. It should also cover policies on personal account
trading, gifts and entertainment. The code, in addition to being
documented, should actually be signed by each employee. This brings
in the employees' commitment to the organization’s expectations.
Incentive Payments
Most investment banking environments involve large incentive
payments. Often, incentives are much larger than the fixed pay. Unless
profit measurement is transparent and independently vetted, it can be
used as a tool to influence the incentives, resulting in a conflict of
interest. Further, incentive payments may motivate the trader to take
disproportionate risks since he may have relatively less to lose as
compared to the personal gains on excellent profit performance. Thus,
an overview of operations is necessary.
Page 56 of 198
Compliance Manual
With the growing complexity of rules and regulations, it becomes
necessary to compile the essence and communicate it to the employees.
The manual should thus be regularly updated. Just preparing the
manual is not sufficient, it is equally important to hold training sessions
that communicate the contents of the manual. The employees should
then give it in writing that they have read and understood the
requirements of the manual. Annually, they should confirm that they
have complied with the same. This induces greater discipline.
Physical Controls
Physical or environmental controls are an important component of
operational controls; they include access controls (physical and
systems), fire controls, burglary alarms and transit controls (for
movement of people and important material including documents).
Page 57 of 198
1.8 TOOLS FOR MANAGING FINANCIAL RISKS
Forward Contracts
Of the financial derivatives, forward contracts are the most familiar,
appearing in transactions as common as buying a puppy. ‘I’ll pay you
$x for that puppy with the spot on its right hind leg when it is weaned.’2
A forward contract is one in which a party agrees to buy (long position)
from another party (short position), an item (underlying asset) on a
future date (maturity, expiry or expiration) at a price (forward price)
that is agreed in the contract.
The diagram labeled Figure 1.1 below helps illustrate the definition of
the forward contract. The top panel illustrates a foreign exchange
forward, in which our company has agreed to pay at time T, GBPx in
order to receive USDy. Assume that one company imports oranges
from the US and will therefore most likely have to pay for them in USD.
Exchange rate fluctuations might expose the company to differences on
exchange which the risk manager would like to hedge for.
1
Such as borrowing in the competitor’s currency or moving production abroad.
2
Charles W Smithson & Clifford W Smith Jr, Managing Financial Risks, Irwin Professional Publishing,
Page145.
Page 58 of 198
Apart from the exchange rate fluctuations, such company is exposed
also to commodity price risks, that is, the risk of fluctuations in the
market price of oranges. In planning the raw material requirements for
the forthcoming production runs, the company will discuss the risk
profile in a round table discussion involving the procurements section,
the sales division and the risk management team. The sales department
might show concern about the selling prices that seem to be competing
in a fierce market and therefore the cost of the purchased oranges plays
a significant role in the level of the bottom lines of the company. The
risk management team, in consultation with the procurements
managers, might fear that the actual price (spot price) of the underlying
asset, that is oranges, at the time T when the shipment is due, may be
higher than the price used in the budgets. The lower panel of the figure
labeled Figure 1.1 illustrates a commodity forward contract in which the
company has agreed at time 0 to pay USD y for x tonnes of oranges to
be delivered and paid for at time T.
3
Adopted from Charles W Smithson & Clifford W Smith Jr, Managing Financial Risks, Irwin
Professional Publishing, Page 146
Page 59 of 198
The company actually could have considered using the cash markets to
hedge that is by buying the oranges today at time 0 for shipment at time
T. However, this method would have affected the cash outflow of the
company immediately. The advantage with the forwards is that buyers
who do not have the cash immediately do not have to borrow, and
those who do have the liquidity need not spend it on the contract date.
Forward contracts are by nature credit instruments in that at time T, a
party to the contract who might find that the spot price then is more
favourable than that agreed upon in the forward contract, might decide
to abrogate the contract. This would leave the other party exposed as
much as one would be out a sum of money in the case where a
borrower reneged on a loan. Therefore, it is evident that Forward
contracts entail credit risks. For this reason, realistically, the forward
market is less appropriate for the individual, the sole proprietor or the
small company. The parties in a forward contract fall under four
categories, namely:
1. Businesses who need the underlying asset in the future
2. Businesses who want to supply the underlying asset in the future
3. Speculators
4. Intermediaries
In this case, the parties to the contract are the company and an
intermediary. The foreign exchange forward described above as a tool
available for the company to hedge against fluctuations in the price of
USD for GBP, is contracted with a currency dealer such as a bank. The
commodity price forward is either done with the farmer himself, which
is cumbersome, or done over-the-counter with a merchant or a dealer.
When the forward contracts are agreed with the intermediaries, it is the
Page 60 of 198
intermediaries who set the forward prices. Very often, the forward price
PF exceeds the current spot price PS (contango). The relationship
between PF and PS is usually related to C, the cost of carrying the
underlying asset from now until maturity. In the case of foreign
currency, C would be the interest lost on the domestic currency GBP
that is used to buy the USD minus the interest that the USD itself earns.
That said, the Interest Rate Parity Theorem states that all differences
between spot and forward exchange rates are offset by differences in
interest rates. Therefore, PF is related to PS by the domestic interest rate
rD, the foreign interest rate rF, and the time to maturity in years, T. This
relationship is expressed as follows:
PF = PS [(1+ rD)/ (1+ rF)] T
In the case of the oranges, C would chiefly be the interest lost on the
GBP used to buy them plus the cost of storing them. However, it is
generally thought that PF will be slightly below PE (expected price) by
an amount that reflects the risk premium which faces investors who
agree forward contracts on those commodities. The modern view for
commodities is based on the portfolio theory which states that forward
prices will always be below expected future prices for all those
commodities whose prices tend to rise when the economy expands.
Under this theory, PF is related to PE as follows:
PF = PE (1+r)
(1+r+ βp)
Where
r is the risk-free interest rate,
p is the market portfolio risk premium and
β is the beta4 of the underlying asset.
4
measure of how the price of the asset responded to market movements
Page 61 of 198
That said, a study by Dusak in 1973 argued that for many commodities
β was close to zero, in which case PF would be very close to PE5.
The above figure illustrates the company’s foreign exchange risk profile.
If the actual price at contract maturity is higher than expected, the
inherent risk results in a decline in the value of the firm. However, this
decline is offset by the profit on the forward contract. Apart from its
payoff profile, the forward contract has two other features:
1. The credit or default risk is two-edged and therefore the contract
owner either receives or makes a payment depending on whether
the price movement of the underlying asset is positive or negative
respectively
5
David N King, Financial Claims and Derivatives, International Thompson Business Press, First edition,
Page 122
Page 62 of 198
2. No payment is made either at origination or during the term of
the contract
Futures Contracts
Futures or Future contracts are contracts that resemble forwards in
many ways.
Similarities with Forwards:
1. They oblige the parties to deal on a future maturity (expiry) date
2. They specify a futures price or some other value to establish the
terms under which the deal is made
3. They are used by both hedgers and speculators
4. The payoff profile illustrated in Figure 1.2 for the purchaser of a
forward contract could also serve to illustrate the payoff to the
holder of a futures contract.
Page 63 of 198
expiry of the contract as with forwards6, and through the ‘margin’
which is a form of performance bond
4. Through the exchanges (or clearing houses), the costs of
transacting in futures are reduced
On the other hand, the futures exchange might be able to offer contracts
for only six maturity days a year, say the third Wednesday in January,
March, May, July, September and November. Also, the exchange might
give no choice over the quality or quantity and limited choice on the
delivery points. These are possible limitations of futures markets. There
might also be a possibility that the exchange will not offer contracts for
6
Fischer Black linked a futures contract to a ‘series of forward contracts in which each day,
yesterday’s contract is settled and today’s contract is written’. Source: Donald H. Chew, Where
Theory meets practice, McGraw-Hill, third edition, page 400
Page 64 of 198
the specific commodity required, in our case oranges. However, with
futures there are appropriate responses that will render hedging far less
of a problem than it might appear. The reason for this is that there are
plenty of people willing to accept standardized futures contracts and
consequently, it is always fairly easy to agree precisely offsetting
contracts. We shall below take a brief canter through some responses
that render hedging with futures less problematic than it seems.
One problem mentioned above is that futures rarely mature on the day
which hedgers would like. In such a case it is always advisable to use
futures that mature after the required date and close out on the date
required. Therefore, assume that the company is required to purchase
200 tonnes of oranges on the 10th October and the closest available
maturity dates are the third Wednesdays of September and December,
say 17th September and 17th December. The best strategy might be to
take the 17th December future contract and close out on the 10th October
because otherwise, if the September maturity is taken, the company will
be exposed during the period 17th September to the 10th October.
Let us for a moment assume that no futures contracts exist for oranges,
even though they are available for orange juice (say from the New York
Commodity Exchange). Assuming also that the prices of oranges and
those for orange juice are perfectly positive correlated, the company’s
best strategy in this case using futures might seem to be to make a
futures contract to buy orange juice and close out just before maturity.
The profit or loss made will offset the loss or profit respectively on the
purchase of oranges at the spot price on that day. This transaction is
called a ‘cross hedge’. If however the prices of oranges and those of
Page 65 of 198
orange juice are not perfectly positive correlated, then the company
shall need to establish the relationship using statistical methods. In this
situation the appropriate response would then be a ‘weighted hedge’.
This might result in a relationship or hedge ratio of say 1.05, or the
requirement to buy 105 tonnes of orange juice to hedge for price
movements of the 100 tonnes of oranges required.
Options
As we have seen that the owner of both a forward and a future contract
has an obligation to perform. An option, on the other hand, gives its
owner a right, not an obligation to perform. We have discussed the risk
profile of the company buying forward oranges or foreign exchange,
starting by Figure 1.1 and developing it to Figure 1.2. We have seen that
the obligation to perform under both forwards and futures will result in
offsetting gains or losses through hedging in the eventuality of either an
increase or a decrease in the price on expiry compared to the agreed
forward or future price. An ideal contract would shift the payoff line in
the lower left quadrant of the pictogram, upwards until horizontal. This
would imply that if the actual price decreased on maturity compared to
the exercise price, then the owner of the contract would have the
possibility to cancel the agreement. This is illustrated in the diagram
below labeled Figure 1.3.
Page 67 of 198
Figure 1.4 - Payoff Profile of Option contract including Premium
Page 68 of 198
Figure 1.5 - Risk profile of different Options
1.9 CONCLUSION
Page 70 of 198
REFERENCES
Page 71 of 198
10. Donald, H. Chew., “Where Theory meets practice”, McGraw-Hill, third
edition, p 400.
11. Dun & Bradstreet., (2010)., “Financial Risk Management”, Tata
McGraw Hill Education Private Limited, New Delhi, Seventh reprint
2010, p 3-84.
12. Fatemi, A. & Luft, C., (2002)., “Corporate risk management. Costs and
benefits”, Global Finance journal, Vol. 13, lssue 1., p29 -p38,
http://search.epnet.com/login.aspx?, Date of access : 09 September
2012.
13. Franco, Azzopardi., (2004)., “Financial Risk Management”, M.Sc.
student, University of Leicester, , p1 – p18.
14. “Financial Risk Management”, The Institute of Chartered Financial
Analysts of India, April 2001, p 6.
15. Green, M.R. & Serbein, O.N., (1983)., “Risk management : Text and
cases”, 2nd ed. Reston Publishing company , p 628.
16. Gupta, P.K., (2004)., “Enterprise risk management – sub-optimality to
optimality”, Journal of Insurance & Risk Management, Vol. II No. 4.
17. Gupta, P.K., (2004)., “Insurance & Risk Management”, Himalaya
Publishing House, New Delhi.
18. Heleen Janse Van Vuuren., (May 2006)., “Disclosing Risk Management
Policies in Financial Statements”, Vaal Triangle Campus: North-West
University (Dissertation - M.Comm.), p 13-17, 27-31.
19. Herman, M. L. & Head, G. L., (2002)., “Strategic risk management:
looking at both sides now. The Non-profit risk management centre”,
http://nonprofitrisk.org/nwsltr/archive/strategy09272OO2, Date
of access: 24 October 2012.
http://www.theirm.org/publications/documents/Risk_Manageme
nt_Standard_030820.pdf.
Page 72 of 198
20. ICAEW (The lnstitute of Chartered Accountants in England &
Whales)., (2002)., Centre for business performance. Briefing 06.02.
No surprises: Working for better risk reporting.
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/, Date of access: 02 September
2012.
21. Kloman, H.F., (1987)., “Risk management… by many other names", Risk
management June, p 62.
22. Koenig, R. David., (2004)., “The Professional Risk Manager’s Handbook:
A Comprehensive Guide To Current Theory & Best Practices”, Volume III:
Risk Management Practices, PRMIA Publications, Wilmington, P 3.
23. Lam, J., (2001)., “Risk Management – The CRO is Here to Stay”,
Prentice-Hall, New York, NY.
24. Lovemore, F. C. H. & Brummer, L. M., (2003)., “The ABC of financial
management. An introduction to financial management and analysis”, 2 nd
ed., South Africa: Van Schaik publishers, p 252.
25. Lucouw, P., (2004)., “Creating the more. Balancing on the tight rope to
prosperous existence”, South Africa: Corals Publishers, p 192.
26. Napp Ann-Katrin., (September 2011)., “Financial Risk Management in
SME - The Use of Financial Analysis for Identifying, Analysing and
Monitoring Internal Financial Risks”, Master Thesis, Aarhus School of
Business, Aarhus University MSc. in International Economic
Consulting Academic.
27. Olsson, C., (2002)., “Risk management in emerging markets. How to
survive and prosper”, London: Pearson education limited, p 31.
28. Punithavathy, Pandian., (2009)., “Security Analysis and Portfolio
Management” , Vikas Publishing House Noida, p 139-145.
29. Shimpi, P.A., (2001)., “Integrating Corporate Risk Management”,
Texere, New York.
Page 73 of 198
30. Skipper, H.D., (1997)., “International Risk and Insurance”, McGraw-
Hill, New York, NY.
31. Smithson, W. Charles & Clifford, W. Smith Jr., “Managing Financial
Risks”, Irwin Professional Publishing, p 145-146.
32. Tiwari, P. & Verma, H., (October 2010 - March 2011)., “Risk
Management of Indian Corporate Sector-An Empirical Analysis of
Business and Financial Risk”, IJBIT, Volume 4, Issue 1, p 57-58.
33. Valsamakis, A.C., Vivian, R.W. & Du Toit, G.S., (1996)., “ The theory
and principles of risk management”, Heinemann Publishers. Isando,
South Africa, p 356.
34. Wessels, R., (2003)., Senior manager at Deloitte, “Report on risk
management – issues facing directors”, http://www.deloitte.co.za, Date
of access: 02 September 2012.
Page 74 of 198