42 Int. J. Sustainable Society, Vol. 10, No.

1, 2018

Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning

process using a system dynamics model: case study
of Northern Bandung area, Indonesia

Djoko Santoso Abi Suroso* and

Benedictus Kombaitan
School of Architecture, Planning and Policy Development,
Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB),
Ganeca Street, No.10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
Email: [email protected]
Email: [email protected]
*Corresponding author
Abstract: The spatial planning in Indonesia has been based on the concept of
sustainable development, however, the process is considered insufficient to
deal with the current dynamic changes and future uncertainty due to global
economic pressure. In order to cope with such complex challenges there is an
urgent need to prepare resilient spatial plans in responding to major continuous
change. The framework of social-ecological systems was used to identify the
dynamic interactions between the ecological and social components of the
problem of land-use conversion in the Northern Bandung Area. Using a system
dynamics model, this research found that the root of such complex problem is
the continuous transfer of land ownership. The study ran simulations by
applying economic incentives (EIs) in an effort to control land ownership
transfer. The simulations show that implementing high effort EIs can decrease
the rate of conversion into built-up areas and the degradation of carrying
capacity.
Keywords: economic incentive; land use; Northern Bandung area; NBA;
spatial plan; social-ecological system; SES; system dynamics; resilience.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Suroso, D.S.A. and
Kombaitan, B. (2018) ‘Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning
process using a system dynamics model: case study of Northern Bandung area,
Indonesia’, Int. J. Sustainable Society, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp.42–61.
Biographical notes: Djoko Santoso Abi Suroso holds a PhD in Environmental
Planning from the University of Queensland (UQ), Australia. He is an
Associate Professor at the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, School
of Architecture, Planning, and Policy Development of the Bandung Institute of
Technology (ITB). He has been the director of the Climate Change Centre of
ITB since 2014. His research interest is the integration of environmental
aspects into the planning process which includes issues of climate change and
disasters.
Benedictus Kombaitan is a Professor in the Urban and Regional Planning,
Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB). He attained a PhD from ITB and a
MSc from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA. He served as the Dean
of the School of Architecture, Planning, and Policy Development of ITB from
2011 to 2015. He is currently the head of the Research Group on Policy
Planning and Development Management in the School of Architecture,
Planning, and Policy Development of ITB.

Copyright © 2018 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

 Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process 43

1 Introduction

Nowadays, resilience is widely applied in many interdisciplinary fields including

planning. The concept of resilience emerged from the field of ecology in the 1960s and
early 1970s through research on the interrelation between people and ecosystems (Folke,
2006). Resilience is defined as the capability of a system to respond to ongoing change
while still maintaining the same essential function, structure, identity and feedbacks
(Walker et al., 2004). According to Davoudi et al. (2012), there are three types of
resilience, i.e., engineering, ecological, and evolutionary resilience. Heslinga et al. (2017)
summarised that evolutionary resilience is equal to social-ecological resilience (SER)
which reveals a paradigm change and according to Davoudi et al. (2012, p.302), the
world is viewed as “chaotic, complex, uncertain, and unpredictable and … in nature or in
society can suddenly change and becomes something radically new.” Wilkinson (2011,
p.148) argued that “at a time when planning theorists are calling for more attention to
matters of substance alongside matters of process, social-ecological resilience provides a
timely contribution with its specific attention to linked social-ecological system.” Social-
ecological systems (SESs) comprise both biophysical and social factors, where humans
develop physical and organisational infrastructure in responding to outer threats and
inside trouble, which forms interdependent systems (Janssen and Ostrom, 2006). In this
perspective, “social and ecological systems are in fact linked, and that the delineation
between social and natural systems is artificial and arbitrary” [Berkes et al., (2003), p.3].
From this perspective, cities are “arguably the most closely coupled human-nature
system” [Du Plessis, (2008), p.3].
The Northern Bandung area (NBA) was elected as the case study for SER for spatial
planning. The land use management of this area was enacted in 1982 and has undergone
several revisions; resulting in the current regulation of West Java Province No. 2/2016
(see Figure 2). However, the problem of uncontrolled land use is believed to cause
environmental degradation which, in turn, has significantly contributed to recent disasters
of flooding and landslides. Similarly, in the case of the protected area of Lake Kerkini in
Greece, Manou (2014) concluded that decision to conserve an area through formal
regulation does not ensure the effective protection of the ecosystem function. This paper
explores the root causes of the inconsistency between implementation on the ground and
the formal plan of the NBA. SER can significantly contribute to provide a framework for
setting and solving the problem of planning (Wilkinson, 2011). SER applies nonlinear
dynamics of change in complex linked SESs (Wilkinson, 2011) so that an approach to
understand these nonlinear behaviours of complex systems is needed. System-dynamics
has the potential to study the patterns of dynamic relationship. As argued by Stave and
Kopainsky (2017, p.31) “system dynamics is well suited for formalising SESs analyses,
because it provides a method for operationalising the SES framework, and includes well
developed techniques for addressing the challenges of system integration and stakeholder
engagement.” Therefore, the main question addressed by this paper is what dynamic
patterns of social and ecological systems determine land use change in the NBA. Then,
using system dynamics, the result of the causal loop diagram (CLD) is used for a
simulation with two scenarios of economic instruments to determine the main
determinant of land use change.
44 D.S.A. Suroso and B. Kombaitan

Figure 1 Map of NBA (see online version for colours)

Source: Authors (2018)

Figure 2 Historical review of spatial plan for the NBA

 Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process 45

The use of system dynamics in the study of SES would provide empirical evidence to
what Binder et al. (2013) qualify as the human-environment system (HES) framework.
The HES framework can be applied to “any research area in which human-environmental
interactions play a role” and in “a complex system in which different social and
ecological hierarchical levels are involved” [Binder et al., (2013), p.7]. Therefore,
identifying the root causes of the ineffectiveness of spatial planning in controlling the
highly dynamics land use change in the case study area of NBA contributes to a more
adaptive spatial planning process.

2 Literature review

2.1 Concept of SES

The SES concept was first introduced by Berkes and Folke (1994). Based on the Oxford
dictionary, a system is “a set of things working together as parts of a mechanism or an
interconnecting network; a complex whole.” Kerner and Thomas (2014, p.674) argued
that “complex interconnectedness of humans and their environment is embodied in what
is called social-ecological systems, or SESs”. Similarly, Anderies et al. (2004) defined
SES as a system consisting of a unit of bio-geo-physics with social actors and related
institutions. Therefore, in a simple way, SES may be defined as a system which is built
by humans and nature.
Meanwhile, Scholz and Binder (2004, p.2) introduced an approach to the same
concept, the HES which was conceptualised as “… mutualism between human and
environmental systems. The human and the environmental system are conceived as two
different systems that exist in essential dependencies and reciprocal endorsement.”
Berkes et al. (2003) argued that a resilient SES that can defend itself from stressors is
equal to ecological, social, and economic sustainability, meaning that a SES “with low
resilience has limited sustainability” [Berkes et al., (2003), p.15]. Furthermore, Miller et
al. (2010) differentiated between ‘specified’ resilience, which concerns certain aspects,
and ‘general’ resilience, which deals with multiple aspects.

2.2 SES and system dynamics

As the study of SES involves a complex interconnection between the social system and
the ecological system, a SES requires an approach that is holistic in nature and is able to
capture the relationships among the main parts of the system which could contribute to
the dynamics of the entire system. According to Sterman (2000, p.42), “system dynamics
can be applied to any dynamic system, with any time and spatial scale.” Duggan (2015)
argued that system dynamics is able to contribute to model development of the long-term
behaviour of complex social systems. The aim of an analysis of system dynamics can be:
1 to describe historical trends
2 to forecast the possible behaviour of the concerned system in reaction to a stressor
3 to obtain recommendations based on projected behaviour (Stave, 2015 in Stave and
Kopainsky, 2017).
46 D.S.A. Suroso and B. Kombaitan

Similarly, Schluter et al. (2014, p.1) emphasise that “through simulating interactions
between the social and ecological systems, dynamic models facilitate the exploration of
the consequences of salient social-ecological feedbacks for management and
sustainability.” Thus, system dynamics modelling can help improve our understanding of
SES behaviour related to spatial planning in the NBA; not only for the past and the
present but also the future behaviour of the system.
Based on Stave and Kopainsky (2017, p.32), the steps in the modelling process of
system dynamics are summarised as follows:
1 defining the behaviour of interest
2 developing a conceptual model of the structure underlying
3 validating the proposed structure
4 using the model for analysis.

2.3 SER and spatial planning

Folke (2006) described a series of resilience concepts from a narrow to a wider
interpretation, i.e., engineering resilience, ecological/ecosystem resilience and SER. SER
is understood as:
1 the amount of disturbance a system can absorb and still remain within the same state
2 the degree to which the system is capable of self-organisation
3 the degree to which the system can build and increase the capacity for learning and
adaptation [Folke, (2006), p.260].
Davoudi et al. (2012, p.304) argued that “evolutionary (or socio-ecological) resilience
promotes the understanding of places not as units of analysis or neutral containers, but as
complex, interconnected socio-spatial systems with extensive and unpredictable feedback
processes which operate at multiple scales and timeframes.” Therefore, in the context of
achieving sustainability in cities, there is a need to reorient planning process to be
“guided by an understanding of systemic interactions; take into account issues of
behaviour, relationship, resource flows and resilience across the social-ecological system;
and acknowledge that uncertainty and unpredictability is a characteristic of cities that
requires adaptive management and flexibility in implementation” [Du Plessis, (2008),
p.9].
The spatial planning system in Indonesia is regulated by Act 26/2007 on spatial
management. Spatial management comprises spatial planning, spatial utilisation and
spatial utilisation control. Spatial planning means the process to determine the spatial
structure and spatial pattern. Hierarchically, spatial plans are categorised into national,
provincial and district/city. The plan differentiates regions, based on their main function
into protected areas and non-protected areas.
The spatial use management of the NBA is regulated through Provincial Regulation
of West Java No.2/2016. This regulation strengthens the previous legal protection, which
 Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process 47

still had some weaknesses. This regulation is enacted to increase the control of land use
in NBA as a provincial strategic region, because of the environmental degradation caused
by the uncontrolled use of land.
Provincial Regulation of West Java No.2/2016 mentions various major functions of
NBA, such as:
a providing protection to the lower regions, including protected forests, protected
function outside the protected forests, and water catchment areas
b local protected areas that include riparian zones and springs area
c nature conservation area
d the area of cultural heritage and knowledge
e an area prone to geological disaster of volcanoes, landslides, and earthquakes.
In contrast, some areas in and surrounding NBA have become urban centres. For
example, Lembang District which is part of the NBA, was defined as Local Activity
Centre based on Local Regulation No. 2/2012 on Spatial Plan of West Bandung Regency
and has become one of the nodes of transportation that connects the city of Bandung with
some other districts in West Bandung Regency. Lembang is also designated as a centre of
agro-industry.

2.4 Synthesis of literature review

Since the publication of Berkes and Folke (1994) with the title ‘Linking Social and
Ecological System for Resilience and Sustainability’, the SES has been promoted as a
promising approach for achieving sustainable development. Indeed, “research for
sustainable development is frontier research by its very nature” and “in order to meet this
challenge…we need a conceptual framework within which social-ecological systems can
be analyzed appropriately…” [Jahn, (2009), p.1]. Furthermore, Jahn (2009, p.2)
emphasised that “the concept of SES has been developed in order to provide two things:
scientific progress and an impact on problem solvings with respect to the specific
structure of sustainability problems”. Similarly, as described above, Wilkinson (2011)
argued that SER is able to offer a framework for identifying the core problem within any
planning process. As a result, SER can also contribute to solving the identified problem.
However, so far, there has been limited empirical evidence to support those claims.
Therefore, this paper contributes to offering an empirical analysis using the framework of
system dynamics towards SER of spatial planning. This paper empirically focuses on
SER for the spatial planning process. It is applied to a highly dynamic land use changes
caused by economic pressure that, in turn, could deteriorate the ecological function of the
region and increase the potential hazards threatening the sustainability of the case study
area. By using a hybrid framework of system dynamics and SES, the root causes of the
problem of the spatial planning of the NBA are identified and the solution to the problem
can be formulated.
48 D.S.A. Suroso and B. Kombaitan

3 Methods

As explained above, the study of SES concerns the complex interrelation between social
and ecological aspect, therefore, there is a need to integrate “knowledge, theories, and
approaches from different disciplines, specifically through the use of hybrid frameworks
where multiple qualitative and quantitative methodologies are applied, making use of a
combination of existing quantitative sources, case studies and stakeholder input”
[Duggan, (2015), p.433]. Systems dynamics fits the needs of SES, as it can withdraw
“feedback relationships that underlie patterns of change in the system” [Stave and
Kopainsky, (2017), p.27].
The framework of system dynamics used in this research consists of the following
steps:
1 constructing a CLD for the model structure
2 validating the model structure
3 using the model for projecting the future of NBA by applying two scenarios of
economic incentive (EI) instruments.
The applied methodology is summarised in Figure 3 below.

Figure 3 Research framework

3.1 Construction of CLD and the model structure

The complexity of the problem of SES is related to the dynamics of change occurring
over time (Binder et al., 2013). The study of SESs also concerns the extent to which the
 Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process 49

role of human activities can impact on occurring environmental problems (Scholz and
Binder, 2004). Therefore, due to the complexity of spatial planning in the NBA, with its
interlinked ecosystem and social system, the system dynamics model is used to identify
the past behaviour of the NBA system. This behaviour is then used to predict the future
behaviour of the NBA. By understanding the relationship between causes and effects
through a causal CLD, the root of the problems of the land use conversion in the NBA
can be identified.
The causal relationship between two variables in a model, when connected to another
causal relationship, may form a closed chain or loop, called causal-loop or feedback-loop
(Kirkwood, 1998). A CLD is made up of several steps. Firstly, based on observations
around the NBA and the study of Hernawan (2010), a hypothetical CLD was created.
Secondly, in-depth interviews with four informants were conducted to revise the
hypothetical CLD. The key respondents were elected to cover the whole spectrum of
relevant actors and consist of:
1 Mr. A. Sutari, a prominent traditional figure, interviewed in
2 Mr. N. Siswanto, a representative of the property developers in NBA, interviewed in
3 Dr. E. Nurmardiansyah, a legal expert who was involved in the drafting of Provincial
Regulation No. 2/2016, interviewed in
4 Mr. E. Priastono, a respondent from provincial government of West Java.
Interview with Mr. Priastono was conducted by Hapsari in 2014 as part of research for
this paper. Subsequently, a SES model structure in the NBA was developed from the
constructed CLD and validated, to ensure that the behaviour of the model structure can be
used for simulating the future of NBA.

3.2 Validating the model structure

Tasrif (2006) contends that a model is an abstraction of a real world because human
beings naturally use models to illustrate problems. A model should be able to represent
the dynamics and structures of the relationship between stock and flow (Sterman, 2000).
The model structure of the research that has been created can help improve our
understanding of the behaviour of existing SESs related to spatial planning in NBA. In
the end, system-dynamics modelling is expected to not only provide an understanding of
the historical or physical behaviour but also the future behaviour of the system. The
validation of the model consists of the following two iterative procedures (Stave and
Kopainsky, 2017):
1 to investigate the causal relationship model through data validation and confirmation
with theory
2 to stimulate the model with observational data as well as anticipated future
conditions.
50 D.S.A. Suroso and B. Kombaitan

3.3 Using the model for projecting the future of NBA by applying two scenarios
of economics incentive instruments
The validated model can be used for simulating types of policy interventions. The
simulation applies two scenarios of EIs in order to compare the responses of the model so
that the effect of economic instruments on controlling land use conversion can be
assessed.

4 Results and discussion

4.1 Dynamic pattern of SES of the NBA

As Figure 4 shows, the number of tourists has increased considerably due to the tourism
development around the NBA, especially in Lembang District which is assigned as an
urban centre. In addition, a population increase in the City of Bandung has put further
pressure on the non-built up areas of the NBA for urban settlements. Based on remote
sensing data analysis, Sobirin (2005) reported that from 1984 to 1996, the NBA
experienced a 21% decrease of forest areas and a 44% decrease in agriculture areas as
well as an increase of built-up areas up to 149%. In addition, Wazni (2017) concluded
that from the year 2001 to the year 2015 primary and secondary forests in the upstream
Cikapundung watershed – the upper part of the NBA – have reduced significantly.
Meanwhile, the settlement areas increased in size.
According to Sobirin (2005), based on the US Army map published in 1933, Punclut
was a tea plantation. The plantation stopped in the late 1930s when the colonial
government decided to reforest this area to be a green belt (Moeliono, 2011). However,
the tea plantation workers still occupied the area and informally claimed their right to
open and cultivate the land (Moeliono, 2011). The interview with Sutari (2017), one of
the grandsons of a worker at this tea plantation, confirmed that the Punclut area was a tea
plantation. The area, now locates the Citra Green Residential Complex and many
restaurants and houses. Sutari further stated that the high price of land significantly
contributed to the willingness of the native owners to sell their land, thus, the transfer of
land ownership occurred extensively. The respondent from the Regional Development
Planning Agency, Priastono (2014), also confirmed that one of the primary driving forces
for the fast rate of land use change in NBA is the construction of toll road between
Bandung and Jakarta, which was formally opened in 2004. In addition, new access from
Bandung to Lembang via Ciumbuleuit street was also constructed. Therefore, it can be
concluded that on the one hand, the spatial plans concerning the NBA designate the area
as predominantly as a protected area, however, on the other hand, they also assign
Bandung City as a National Activity Centre and Lembang District as a Local Activity
Centre. This policy has sparked further infrastructure developments that, in turn, also
contribute to the high price of land. As a result, there has been an acceleration of land
conversion towards built-up areas (see Figure 4).
 Figure 4
Economy insentive
effect of willingness
Welfare initial to build
Welfare effect
the increase of
average land price Fraction of Built
land price ratio up area
Welfare
for colours)

Amount of Land Paremeter effect built up area initial

Area Buyer efforts effect of willingness to
The increase of
- build due to the land
effect of land ratio land price
welfare effects towards Land Ownership ownership
Built up area towards and pricing tranfer
avaibility effect willingness to sell the land the amount of built
non built up area ratio
Land use effect Built up Area up area
The average of
Fraction ability availability of water tourism visitor Fraction of Tourism
Land price Migration time Increase of Built
catchment area Tourism attractiveness
Land use for average up Area
development attractiveness
+
+ The amount of Fraction of Fraction of
infiltration ability + Tourism visitor
Development Effect of Land development of Immigration Amount of InMigration Fraction of
realization demand tourism facilities Immigration In-Migration Mortality
Increase rate
Land demand
Decrease + accumulation initial Time adjustment
rate Fraction of Avaibility of job Population
+
Regulation opportunities Birth Death
Efforts to
Carrying Accumulation Streets
development Control capacity Initial
Capacity of Development Population Out-Migration
Increase Increase of - Birth rate
Decrease attractiveness Decrease of Growth of
the effect of regulation Accumulation accumulation Kemacetan+ Settlement
Fraction of
enforcement Amount of Vehicle +
Fraction of spatial plan OutMigration
Rate of on the street
addition rate Potential of quality
Rain Reduction Efek
disaster risk Coeficient Addition rate of + fraction the amount Growth of
Development of Kemacetan
The ability of accumulation of vehicle Settlement fraction
Fraction of spatial plan supporting infrastructure
+
Disaster risk Settlement +
Developer Ratio
+
Potential of Willingness to built
Development
Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process

the needs of +
spatial plan The amount of
Developers settlement intial
CLD of the dynamics of land-use change in NBA (see online version

Quality
Average time to
built

Source: Authors (2017)

51
52 D.S.A. Suroso and B. Kombaitan

Based on the interview with Nurmardiansyah (2017), a legal expert involved in the
drafting of the latest regulation no 2/2016 as a revision of the previous regulation of
2011, six issues of the weaknesses of the former regulation were identified, namely:
1 the scale of map for NBA was too small, so that delineation of protected area was
unclear
2 recommendations and permits
3 supervision

4 incentives and disincentives

5 zoning regulation
6 legal enforcement.
The new regulation already addresses issues 1, 2, 3 and 5. Number 4, the EIs is not
sufficiently addressed and only refers to another provincial regulation on EIs. Although
the weakness on the issue of incentives or disincentives still needs further elaboration
into a new regulation, Nurmardiansyah (2017) believes that with the revision of
provincial regulations, the rate of land use conversion in the NBA can be significantly
reduced.
In contrast, Siswanto (2017), a developer who is currently developing a property
project in the NBA, has a different opinion of the effectiveness of the new regulation and
the use of EIs to control the future land use in the NBA. He is convinced that property
developers will always find ways to deal with the implementation of the regulation. He
emphasises that there were many examples in Indonesia where ‘regulations are made to
be disobeyed’. He is also unsure whether the EIs would be as attractive as the high price
of land offered by the developers. Moreover, he questions the availability of funding for
EIs. Alam (2016) observed a similar phenomenon in the periphery of Greater Dhaka,
Bangladesh, i.e., that the role of private developers on land ownership transfer for
housing development is difficult to control.
The dynamic pattern of the NBA as outlined in Figure 4 shows that the acceleration
of land use changes of initially dominantly agriculture and protected areas into built-up
areas was caused by the acceleration of land ownership transfers triggered by the high
price of land. This high price was caused by infrastructure developments, which was
made possible due to the direction of spatial plans such as the appointment of the
Bandung City as a National Activity Centre and Lembang District as a Local Activity
Centre. Therefore, the transfer of land ownership from the native owners into the
property developers and individual buyers is considered as one of the key problems of
land use management in the NBA, which cannot be addressed by conventional spatial
planning, i.e., allocation of protected areas. Hernawan (2010) argued that such land
ownership transfer can be controlled by applying economics incentive in the form of
purchasing development rights (PDR) and payments for environmental services (PES).
The next section consists of a discussion of two scenarios of EIs based on the CLD as
presented in Figure 4.
 Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process 53

4.2 System dynamics of the NBA

4.2.1 Model structure
From the complex land conversion problem in the NBA, the constructed loop diagram as
presented in Figure 4 is simplified into a model structure. This proposed model structure
contains four sub-models:
1 carrying capacity
2 land use
3 population
4 spatial plan.

Figure 5 Global model structure (see online version for colours)

Source: Authors (2017)

The interaction between the sub-models forms the main loops as shown in Figure 5. Land
use conversion causes a decrease in carrying capacity. Based on Ministerial Decree of
Environment No. 17 Year 2009, the inconsistency between the existing land use and land
capability is considered to decrease carrying capacity. The NBA, based on land
capability, is allocated as a protected area, however, in reality, it is used for housing
development. The decline in carrying capacity will increase the need for more effective
land use management especially in terms of land-use control (B1). The increased need for
better spatial planning will affect land use conversion through zoning directives and
license processes (B2). Similarly, the increasing population will drive the community’s
need for land for settlements as well as support infrastructures (R1). This clearly requires
a policy that can regulate the spatial and regional plans for the NBA (R2). Thus, the loop
is called reinforcing.

4.2.2 Simulation results

The constructed CLD and the model structure presented above is simulated to validate
the model and the expected future behaviour of the NBA is projected for the period from
2015 to 2050 as follows.
54 D.S.A. Suroso and B. Kombaitan

4.2.2.1 Built-up area

According to Kuswandana as a head of Division for Spatial Planning of the Regional
Road (Bina Marga) and Spatial Planning Agency of West Java Province in
Faktabandungraya.com (2017), the NBA has an area of 39,354.31 Ha and covers four
administrative regions, i.e., Bandung city (3,366 Ha), Cimahi city (1,524 Ha), Bandung
regency (9,235 Ha), and West Bandung regency (25,277 Ha). The total built-up area in
the NBA is estimated at about 9,388 Ha which is distributed 3,247.40 Ha in Bandung
city, 1,305.60 Ha in Cimahi city, 1,270.10 Ha in Bandung regency, and 3,576.63 Ha in
West Bandung regency. Using this data, the simulation obtained the following results.

Figure 6 Built-up area (see online version for colours)

20,000

17,250
Ha

14,500

11,750

9000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Time (Year)
Built up Area : Base Run

Source: Authors (2017)

As described above, the trend of historical land use changes consistently increased and it
is expected to continue up to 18,000 Ha by 2050 as shown in Figure 5. Similarly,
Figure 7 shows the expected future land price. The model shows a similar trend when
comparing with the historical pattern of land prices from 1980 to 2015 in the northern
part of the Bandung-Cimahi peri-urban region as reported by Vitriana (2017). According
to Vitriana (2017), there was a significant increase of land price in the early 1990s due to
the construction of the toll road from Padalarang to Cileunyi, afterward the land price
exponentially increased up to 2015.

Figure 7 Land pricing (see online version for colours)

g
.04

.03
Value

.02

.01

0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Time (Year)
Land Pricing : Base Run

Source: Authors (2017)

 Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process 55

4.2.2.2 Carrying capacity

Based on regulation of West Java Province No. 2/2016, the NBA is designated as a
provincial strategic area with a water infiltration function. The location of NBA above the
elevation of 750 m is also important as a buffer zone to protect the lower regions such as
Bandung City and Cimahi City. The rapid developments in the NBA cause a decrease of
water infiltration, which, in turn, degrades the region’s carrying capacity. This is
supported by Putri and Purwadio (2013) who concluded that land use changes from green
space into settlements in Lembang District from the period of 2002 to 2013 reduced
potential water infiltrations to around 27,501.45 m3, which may increase potential flood
in the lower region. Using the STREAM model, Fajri (2016) proved that land use
changes from non-built-up land use to settlements in Southern Bandung increased the
flood debit.

Figure 8 Carrying capacity (see online version for colours)

50

37.5
Dmnl

25

12.5

0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Time (Year)
Carrying Capacity : Base Run

Source: Authors (2017)

Figures 8 and 9 show the results of the expected future carrying capacity and potential
disaster hazards using the behaviour model which was validated by historical data. The
diagrams indicate that the future carrying capacity will constantly degrade and the hazard
potential would continue to escalate.

Figure 9 Potential for disaster hazard (see online version for colours)

Source: Authors (2017)

56 D.S.A. Suroso and B. Kombaitan

4.3 The use of validated model of the behaviour of the NBA for simulating
policy interventions
As previously presented, the most important driver of land use change in the NBA has
been the pressure from economic development. Therefore, further simulations use EIs to
intervene the validated behaviour, especially in reducing the current continuous ‘land
ownership transfer’. There are two scenarios of EIs, i.e., ‘high effort’ and ‘low effort’. A
high effort represents a very serious implementation of economic instruments consisting
of the issuance of provincial regulations, the establishment of required institutions, and
the provision of necessary funding. The low effort represents a business as usual action
meaning no further additional effort asides implementing the newest amended Provincial
Regulation No. 2 of 2016 on controlling the NBA. As discussed in Section 4.1 above,
Nurmardiansyah (2017) argued that the EI is not sufficiently addressed within Regulation
No. 2 of 2016. The low effort simulation represents this existing regulation. The
computer simulation used the values 0.8 (high effort) and 0.2 (low effort).

Figure 10 The result of simulations using two scenarios of EI (see online version for colours)

Population Built up Area

20,000
5M

3.75 M 17,250
Jiwa

Ha

2.5 M 14,500

1.25 M 11,750

0 9000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Time (Year) Time (Year)
Population : IE_0,8 Population : IE_0,2 Built up Area : IE_0,8 Built up Area : IE_0,2

Source: Authors (2017)

The three graphs shown in Figure 10 below are the result of the simulation with two
scenarios of ‘high effort’ and ‘low effort’ of EIs. The results can be summarised as
follows:
1 Population growth. The response of the model to the high incentive economics
scenario indicates that the number of population in 2050 would be lower than in the
low incentive scenario.
 Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process 57

2 Increase of built-up area. The model also reacts positively to the high effort
scenario. It means that the built-up area in 2050 would be smaller than in the
scenario of low EIs.
3 Degradation of carrying capacity. In response to the higher incentive, the model
shows that the degradation of carrying capacity would be slower than with the low
effort intervention.

4.3 Discussion
Wilkinson (2011) argued that SER could contribute to planning in two ways. First, in the
problem identification and problem-solving of planning. Second, SER could strengthen
the ecological substance of planning. Using a hybrid framework of SES and system
dynamics, this paper investigates the underlying planning problem of the case study area,
the NBA which has consistently undergone land conversion. This conversion has
occurred regardless the enactment since 1982 of provincial regulations aimed to conserve
the area, which have frequently been amended including the newest Provincial
Regulation No. 2/2016. Six issues were identified in the process of formulating the draft
of this regulation, i.e., insufficient detail on the scale of maps of the spatial plans,
mechanisms of permit issuance, lack of supervision, lack of incentive instruments for
controlling land use, zoning regulations, and the weak enforcement of regulations. The
most recent regulation of 2016 has already addressed almost all the identified issues,
except for the issue of incentives which lacks detail. Using the SES framework and the
CLD tool, the paper finds that the root cause of the problem is the accelerated transfer of
land ownership due to the high price of land offered by the market, which is triggered by
economic development as a result of infrastructure construction. Thus, the key planning
problem in the NBA is related to EIs, which are not properly addressed by Regulation
No. 02/2016. This means that the latest regulation has not addressed the root of the
problem. Further simulations of the system dynamics model confirmed that high effort
EIs are expected to reduce the rate of land conversion and degradation of carrying
capacity. SES research has been carried out intensively worldwide, Rissman and Gillon
(2017) analysed 120 papers on the topic of SES. Of the paper assessed by Rissman and
Gillon (2017), 18% used the CLDs method. Although the use of CLD for SES research is
not new, the contribution of this paper is to offer an approach for a step in the planning
process, i.e., problem identification which in turn supports the solution of the problem.
By finding the more fundamental problem in the NBA followed up with a better solution,
this paper also could enhance the ecological substance of land use management in the
NBA.
Stave et al. (2017) applied a hybrid framework of SES and system dynamics similar
to the framework used by this paper, focusing on the sustainability of the Lake Tana
Basin, Ethiopia. Stave et al. (2017) focused on the sustainability of the agriculture sector
by addressing the issues of agricultural intensification, job creation, and rural to urban
migration, whereas this paper focused on the sustainability of an ecologically sensitive
area threatened by urban expansion. Although the case study for this paper and the case
of Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia addressed different issues, using a similar approach of
combining SES and system dynamics, both studies were able to identify the root of the
respective problems.
58 D.S.A. Suroso and B. Kombaitan

On the other hand, although addressing the same issues of the NBA, using a different
approach, Hernawan (2010) found that the main problem of the NBA was due to
contradictory policies in the spatial plan; on the one hand, the plan designated the NBA
as protected area, but areas close to the NBA such as Bandung City and even within the
NBA such as Lembang City are planned as urban activity centres. The designation of
activity centres leads to an increase in urban and economic development, which is related
to the findings of this paper that the main problem of the NBA is land ownership transfer
due to economic reasons. By using a hybrid framework of SES and system dynamics, this
paper could identify the core of the problem of uncontrolled land conversion. This paper
is also in line with Palomo et al. (2014) who argued that the static approach in protected
area management is out of date. Therefore, an adaptive approach has to be applied in the
management of protected areas by taking into account natural and social changes.
Further, Heslinga et al. (2017) concluded that traditional protection only views the issue
from the perspective of protection and risk avoidance. Meanwhile, from the perspective
of social-ecological dynamic, synergies should be found between protection and
emerging opportunities as well as between development and risk avoidance. Furthermore,
Burnett (2014) argued that applying an island approach in the management of protected
areas will not be effective; a better approach is to establish preservation areas as part of
‘welfare-maximising management programme’. Similarly, Robinson et al. (2014)
contended that economic welfare must be attained in parallel with ecological
sustainability.

5 Conclusions and limitations of study

Based on SES analysis using a CLD tool and the simulations of the system dynamics
model, it can be concluded that the implementation of a policy of EIs could reduce the
rate of land use change and contribute to slow down the degradation of carrying capacity
in the NBA. This policy could reduce the rate of land-ownership transfers, which is the
root cause of the problem of land use conversion in the NBA.
The simulations show that the implementation of a high level of EIs could reduce the
increase in built-up areas compared to a scenario with low incentives. Consequently, a
policy of high-level EIs also leads to less environmental degradation than applying a
policy of low EIs. The smaller increase of built-up area is also supported by the
simulation of population growth, which shows lower growth compared to the low
incentive scenario. The model simulation in responding to the high incentive scenario
shows that the effective control of the NBA requires a set of economic instruments and
the establishment of required institutions to support the implementation of such incentive
level for land use management. The simulation implies that the new Provincial
Regulation of West Java No 2/2016 is still insufficient in controlling land use conversion
in the NBA.
Nevertheless, Siswanto (2017), a respondent representing property developers in
NBA, is unsure if the EIs would as attractive as the high price of land offered by the
housing developers. In addition, he believes that developers will usually find ways to deal
with the regulation and make the land-ownership transfer occur anyway. Therefore, as
stated by Wilkinson (2011), the role of socio-ecological resilience for planning is to
contribute in formulating more accurate planning problems that result in better solutions.
 Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process 59

This paper was able to identify the root causes of land conversion in NBA, i.e.,
progressive land ownership transfer. However, this paper is not fully satisfactory in terms
of providing proper solutions to the problem of a continuous change in land ownership,
therefore, further research is needed. In particular, model simulations that could provide
more comprehensive solutions to the given problems include more detailed scenarios of
economic instruments and the involvement of key stakeholders in a more collaborative
model of system dynamics is necessary.

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