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Social-Ecological Resilience For The Spatial Planning Process Using A System Dynamics Model: Case Study of Northern Bandung Area, Indonesia
Social-Ecological Resilience For The Spatial Planning Process Using A System Dynamics Model: Case Study of Northern Bandung Area, Indonesia
1, 2018
1 Introduction
The use of system dynamics in the study of SES would provide empirical evidence to
what Binder et al. (2013) qualify as the human-environment system (HES) framework.
The HES framework can be applied to “any research area in which human-environmental
interactions play a role” and in “a complex system in which different social and
ecological hierarchical levels are involved” [Binder et al., (2013), p.7]. Therefore,
identifying the root causes of the ineffectiveness of spatial planning in controlling the
highly dynamics land use change in the case study area of NBA contributes to a more
adaptive spatial planning process.
2 Literature review
Similarly, Schluter et al. (2014, p.1) emphasise that “through simulating interactions
between the social and ecological systems, dynamic models facilitate the exploration of
the consequences of salient social-ecological feedbacks for management and
sustainability.” Thus, system dynamics modelling can help improve our understanding of
SES behaviour related to spatial planning in the NBA; not only for the past and the
present but also the future behaviour of the system.
Based on Stave and Kopainsky (2017, p.32), the steps in the modelling process of
system dynamics are summarised as follows:
1 defining the behaviour of interest
2 developing a conceptual model of the structure underlying
3 validating the proposed structure
4 using the model for analysis.
still had some weaknesses. This regulation is enacted to increase the control of land use
in NBA as a provincial strategic region, because of the environmental degradation caused
by the uncontrolled use of land.
Provincial Regulation of West Java No.2/2016 mentions various major functions of
NBA, such as:
a providing protection to the lower regions, including protected forests, protected
function outside the protected forests, and water catchment areas
b local protected areas that include riparian zones and springs area
c nature conservation area
d the area of cultural heritage and knowledge
e an area prone to geological disaster of volcanoes, landslides, and earthquakes.
In contrast, some areas in and surrounding NBA have become urban centres. For
example, Lembang District which is part of the NBA, was defined as Local Activity
Centre based on Local Regulation No. 2/2012 on Spatial Plan of West Bandung Regency
and has become one of the nodes of transportation that connects the city of Bandung with
some other districts in West Bandung Regency. Lembang is also designated as a centre of
agro-industry.
3 Methods
As explained above, the study of SES concerns the complex interrelation between social
and ecological aspect, therefore, there is a need to integrate “knowledge, theories, and
approaches from different disciplines, specifically through the use of hybrid frameworks
where multiple qualitative and quantitative methodologies are applied, making use of a
combination of existing quantitative sources, case studies and stakeholder input”
[Duggan, (2015), p.433]. Systems dynamics fits the needs of SES, as it can withdraw
“feedback relationships that underlie patterns of change in the system” [Stave and
Kopainsky, (2017), p.27].
The framework of system dynamics used in this research consists of the following
steps:
1 constructing a CLD for the model structure
2 validating the model structure
3 using the model for projecting the future of NBA by applying two scenarios of
economic incentive (EI) instruments.
The applied methodology is summarised in Figure 3 below.
role of human activities can impact on occurring environmental problems (Scholz and
Binder, 2004). Therefore, due to the complexity of spatial planning in the NBA, with its
interlinked ecosystem and social system, the system dynamics model is used to identify
the past behaviour of the NBA system. This behaviour is then used to predict the future
behaviour of the NBA. By understanding the relationship between causes and effects
through a causal CLD, the root of the problems of the land use conversion in the NBA
can be identified.
The causal relationship between two variables in a model, when connected to another
causal relationship, may form a closed chain or loop, called causal-loop or feedback-loop
(Kirkwood, 1998). A CLD is made up of several steps. Firstly, based on observations
around the NBA and the study of Hernawan (2010), a hypothetical CLD was created.
Secondly, in-depth interviews with four informants were conducted to revise the
hypothetical CLD. The key respondents were elected to cover the whole spectrum of
relevant actors and consist of:
1 Mr. A. Sutari, a prominent traditional figure, interviewed in
2 Mr. N. Siswanto, a representative of the property developers in NBA, interviewed in
3 Dr. E. Nurmardiansyah, a legal expert who was involved in the drafting of Provincial
Regulation No. 2/2016, interviewed in
4 Mr. E. Priastono, a respondent from provincial government of West Java.
Interview with Mr. Priastono was conducted by Hapsari in 2014 as part of research for
this paper. Subsequently, a SES model structure in the NBA was developed from the
constructed CLD and validated, to ensure that the behaviour of the model structure can be
used for simulating the future of NBA.
3.3 Using the model for projecting the future of NBA by applying two scenarios
of economics incentive instruments
The validated model can be used for simulating types of policy interventions. The
simulation applies two scenarios of EIs in order to compare the responses of the model so
that the effect of economic instruments on controlling land use conversion can be
assessed.
the needs of +
spatial plan The amount of
Developers settlement intial
CLD of the dynamics of land-use change in NBA (see online version
Quality
Average time to
built
Based on the interview with Nurmardiansyah (2017), a legal expert involved in the
drafting of the latest regulation no 2/2016 as a revision of the previous regulation of
2011, six issues of the weaknesses of the former regulation were identified, namely:
1 the scale of map for NBA was too small, so that delineation of protected area was
unclear
2 recommendations and permits
3 supervision
17,250
Ha
14,500
11,750
9000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Time (Year)
Built up Area : Base Run
.03
Value
.02
.01
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Time (Year)
Land Pricing : Base Run
37.5
Dmnl
25
12.5
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Time (Year)
Carrying Capacity : Base Run
Figure 9 Potential for disaster hazard (see online version for colours)
4.3 The use of validated model of the behaviour of the NBA for simulating
policy interventions
As previously presented, the most important driver of land use change in the NBA has
been the pressure from economic development. Therefore, further simulations use EIs to
intervene the validated behaviour, especially in reducing the current continuous ‘land
ownership transfer’. There are two scenarios of EIs, i.e., ‘high effort’ and ‘low effort’. A
high effort represents a very serious implementation of economic instruments consisting
of the issuance of provincial regulations, the establishment of required institutions, and
the provision of necessary funding. The low effort represents a business as usual action
meaning no further additional effort asides implementing the newest amended Provincial
Regulation No. 2 of 2016 on controlling the NBA. As discussed in Section 4.1 above,
Nurmardiansyah (2017) argued that the EI is not sufficiently addressed within Regulation
No. 2 of 2016. The low effort simulation represents this existing regulation. The
computer simulation used the values 0.8 (high effort) and 0.2 (low effort).
Figure 10 The result of simulations using two scenarios of EI (see online version for colours)
3.75 M 17,250
Jiwa
Ha
2.5 M 14,500
1.25 M 11,750
0 9000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Time (Year) Time (Year)
Population : IE_0,8 Population : IE_0,2 Built up Area : IE_0,8 Built up Area : IE_0,2
2 Increase of built-up area. The model also reacts positively to the high effort
scenario. It means that the built-up area in 2050 would be smaller than in the
scenario of low EIs.
3 Degradation of carrying capacity. In response to the higher incentive, the model
shows that the degradation of carrying capacity would be slower than with the low
effort intervention.
4.3 Discussion
Wilkinson (2011) argued that SER could contribute to planning in two ways. First, in the
problem identification and problem-solving of planning. Second, SER could strengthen
the ecological substance of planning. Using a hybrid framework of SES and system
dynamics, this paper investigates the underlying planning problem of the case study area,
the NBA which has consistently undergone land conversion. This conversion has
occurred regardless the enactment since 1982 of provincial regulations aimed to conserve
the area, which have frequently been amended including the newest Provincial
Regulation No. 2/2016. Six issues were identified in the process of formulating the draft
of this regulation, i.e., insufficient detail on the scale of maps of the spatial plans,
mechanisms of permit issuance, lack of supervision, lack of incentive instruments for
controlling land use, zoning regulations, and the weak enforcement of regulations. The
most recent regulation of 2016 has already addressed almost all the identified issues,
except for the issue of incentives which lacks detail. Using the SES framework and the
CLD tool, the paper finds that the root cause of the problem is the accelerated transfer of
land ownership due to the high price of land offered by the market, which is triggered by
economic development as a result of infrastructure construction. Thus, the key planning
problem in the NBA is related to EIs, which are not properly addressed by Regulation
No. 02/2016. This means that the latest regulation has not addressed the root of the
problem. Further simulations of the system dynamics model confirmed that high effort
EIs are expected to reduce the rate of land conversion and degradation of carrying
capacity. SES research has been carried out intensively worldwide, Rissman and Gillon
(2017) analysed 120 papers on the topic of SES. Of the paper assessed by Rissman and
Gillon (2017), 18% used the CLDs method. Although the use of CLD for SES research is
not new, the contribution of this paper is to offer an approach for a step in the planning
process, i.e., problem identification which in turn supports the solution of the problem.
By finding the more fundamental problem in the NBA followed up with a better solution,
this paper also could enhance the ecological substance of land use management in the
NBA.
Stave et al. (2017) applied a hybrid framework of SES and system dynamics similar
to the framework used by this paper, focusing on the sustainability of the Lake Tana
Basin, Ethiopia. Stave et al. (2017) focused on the sustainability of the agriculture sector
by addressing the issues of agricultural intensification, job creation, and rural to urban
migration, whereas this paper focused on the sustainability of an ecologically sensitive
area threatened by urban expansion. Although the case study for this paper and the case
of Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia addressed different issues, using a similar approach of
combining SES and system dynamics, both studies were able to identify the root of the
respective problems.
58 D.S.A. Suroso and B. Kombaitan
On the other hand, although addressing the same issues of the NBA, using a different
approach, Hernawan (2010) found that the main problem of the NBA was due to
contradictory policies in the spatial plan; on the one hand, the plan designated the NBA
as protected area, but areas close to the NBA such as Bandung City and even within the
NBA such as Lembang City are planned as urban activity centres. The designation of
activity centres leads to an increase in urban and economic development, which is related
to the findings of this paper that the main problem of the NBA is land ownership transfer
due to economic reasons. By using a hybrid framework of SES and system dynamics, this
paper could identify the core of the problem of uncontrolled land conversion. This paper
is also in line with Palomo et al. (2014) who argued that the static approach in protected
area management is out of date. Therefore, an adaptive approach has to be applied in the
management of protected areas by taking into account natural and social changes.
Further, Heslinga et al. (2017) concluded that traditional protection only views the issue
from the perspective of protection and risk avoidance. Meanwhile, from the perspective
of social-ecological dynamic, synergies should be found between protection and
emerging opportunities as well as between development and risk avoidance. Furthermore,
Burnett (2014) argued that applying an island approach in the management of protected
areas will not be effective; a better approach is to establish preservation areas as part of
‘welfare-maximising management programme’. Similarly, Robinson et al. (2014)
contended that economic welfare must be attained in parallel with ecological
sustainability.
Based on SES analysis using a CLD tool and the simulations of the system dynamics
model, it can be concluded that the implementation of a policy of EIs could reduce the
rate of land use change and contribute to slow down the degradation of carrying capacity
in the NBA. This policy could reduce the rate of land-ownership transfers, which is the
root cause of the problem of land use conversion in the NBA.
The simulations show that the implementation of a high level of EIs could reduce the
increase in built-up areas compared to a scenario with low incentives. Consequently, a
policy of high-level EIs also leads to less environmental degradation than applying a
policy of low EIs. The smaller increase of built-up area is also supported by the
simulation of population growth, which shows lower growth compared to the low
incentive scenario. The model simulation in responding to the high incentive scenario
shows that the effective control of the NBA requires a set of economic instruments and
the establishment of required institutions to support the implementation of such incentive
level for land use management. The simulation implies that the new Provincial
Regulation of West Java No 2/2016 is still insufficient in controlling land use conversion
in the NBA.
Nevertheless, Siswanto (2017), a respondent representing property developers in
NBA, is unsure if the EIs would as attractive as the high price of land offered by the
housing developers. In addition, he believes that developers will usually find ways to deal
with the regulation and make the land-ownership transfer occur anyway. Therefore, as
stated by Wilkinson (2011), the role of socio-ecological resilience for planning is to
contribute in formulating more accurate planning problems that result in better solutions.
Social-ecological resilience for the spatial planning process 59
This paper was able to identify the root causes of land conversion in NBA, i.e.,
progressive land ownership transfer. However, this paper is not fully satisfactory in terms
of providing proper solutions to the problem of a continuous change in land ownership,
therefore, further research is needed. In particular, model simulations that could provide
more comprehensive solutions to the given problems include more detailed scenarios of
economic instruments and the involvement of key stakeholders in a more collaborative
model of system dynamics is necessary.
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