Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SSRN Id2277512
SSRN Id2277512
Elisabetta Basilico
Hugh Grove
Lorenzo Patelli*
Major financial reporting frauds need to be studied for lessons learned and strategies to
avoid or reduce the incidence of such frauds in the future. Howard Schilit, the founder and Chief
Executive Officer (CEO) of Financial Shenanigans Detection Group, observed (2010): “I read
recently that the one lesson we have learned from history is that we have learned nothing from
history. Yet my mantra remains that in order to find fraud, we must study the history of fraud.
A common element is all the fraud I have described is that their warning signs were not hard to
different national and international environments include Enron, Parmalat, Satyam, Qwest
Communications International, WorldCom, AOL, Freddie Mac, Tyco, Xerox, and Lehman
Brothers. All these cases showed that in order to successfully investigate and detect fraudulent
financial reporting the analysis of financial statement red flags needs to be supplemented with
the analysis of non-financial red flags concerning corporate governance mechanisms. As Sir
David Tweedy, Chair of the International Accounting Standards Boards stated (2007), “The
scandals that we have seen in recent years are often attributed to accounting although in fact, I
think the U.S. cases are corporate governance scandals involving fraud.”
*
The authors are, respectively, Doctoral Candidate at University of St. Gallen, Professor, and Assistant Professor at
the Daniels College of Business at University of Denver
142
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
In this paper, we analyze the 2009 scandal of Satyam, one of India’s largest information
technology companies and provider of computer software and business process outsourcing to
large companies around the world including General Motors, Nestlé, and General Electric. We
discuss financial and non-financial red flags. Specifically, we apply five financial fraud
prediction measures and examine corporate governance elements. The results of our analyses
financial indicators with non-financial red flags enables us to present the reverse KISS principle
by Hilb (2005). The principle offers a consistent framework to design and assess corporate
governance structures which could limit monitoring failures. The paper contributes to the
literature and practice by providing an analysis of one of the most economically significant cases
of fraudulent financial reporting. The analysis is not limited to descriptive anecdotal evidence.
Yet, it is based on the application of five fraud detection financial measures. Moreover, it
examines corporate governance factors in light of prior research. Finally, we offer a framework
to help organizations and investors to assess the strength of corporate governance in reducing
The paper has four main sections: Section I presents the main facts of the Satyam case;
Section II and Section III analyze financial and non-financial red flags, respectively; Section IV
proposes the reverse KISS model by Hilb (2005) to reduce fraudulent financial reporting; and
Ramalinga Raju, 54, former Chairman of the Board (COB) of Satyam Computer Services
143
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
business history as the perpetrator of the country’s biggest corporate fraud, also referred to as the
“Enron of India.” He was born into a farmers’ family and educated both in India and the USA.
He returned to India in 1977 and after venturing into the textile and real estate industry, he
services, including systems design, software development, system integration and application
maintenance. In 2008, Satyam reported $2.1 billion dollar in revenues and employed over 53,000
IT Professionals in over 67 countries. The company went public in 1991 and the initial public
offering (IPO) was 17 times oversubscribed. In the following decade, Satyam continued its
growth and obtained the ISO9001 certification and several other awards. In 2001, Satyam started
listing its American Depository Receipts (ADRs) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
under the ticker symbol SAY. The size and prestige of the company have been constantly
increasing. In 2003, The World Bank became a client of Satyam whose revenues reached $1
billion in 2006 and $2 billion in 2008. Satyam was often recognized as a center of excellence on
risk management and in 2008 it was awarded the Golden Peacock for Excellence in Corporate
Governance.†
All the facts and awards seemed to point to an exemplary corporation and to reflect the
respect and confidence from the corporate world, financial analysts, and institutional investors.
The board of directors did not nominally lack non-executive members and committees such as
†
The “Golden Peacock” award was instituted in 1991 by the Institute of Directors and was considered the holy grail
of corporate excellence in areas of quality, innovation, training, governance, environment management and
corporate social responsibility. Based on Satyam’s most recent annual reports (2006-2007-2008), corporate
governance was given high importance and driven by Satyam’s core values: “Associate Delight, Investor Delight,
Customer Delight and the Pursuit of Excellence.”
144
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
The loss of respect and confidence started at the end of 2008. On December 16, 2008,
Ramalinga Raju, COB of Satyam, announced the purchasing of Maytas Infrastructure and
Maytas Properties for $1.6 billion. The two Maytas companies were owned by the two sons of
Raju and their businesses were unrelated to the core competencies of Satyam. Raju justified the
turbulence. On the following day, Satyam shares plunged as domestic and international investors
were angry with the company which on December 18, 2008 announced to rescind the decision to
purchase the two Maytas companies. Few days later, another fact raised deep concerns for
investors. On December 23, 2008 World Bank announced to ban Satyam for at least 8 years from
its list of possible suppliers of services citing alleged bribing of the bank staff and data theft.
Following this incident, Satyam’s ADRs fell by 50% overnight. From December 26 to December
On January 7, 2009 Ramalinga Raju wrote a letter to the Board of Directors and the
Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to admit fraudulent financial reporting and resign as the COB
of Satyam. In his letter, Raju stated that the company’s balance sheet for the quarter ending on
30 September 2007 included inflated cash and bank balances of up to $1.44 billion, understated
liabilities worth about $300 million and non-existent accrued income of $86 million.
Furthermore, Raju stated that none of the board members or immediate and extended family
members was aware of the accounting scam. Raju was arrested two days after the letter and
charged with several offences, including criminal conspiracy, breach of trust, and forgery. The
Board of Directors was dismantled and replaced with six board members appointed by the Indian
Government.
145
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Raju admitted that Satyam profits were inflated over several years to “unmanageable
proportions” and that the company was forced to carry more assets and resources than its real
operations justified. In a subsequent interview, he said that “it was like riding a tiger, not
knowing how to get off without being eaten.” In particular, Raju acknowledged that Satyam
Financial red flags associated with Satyam and its financial statements were not lacking.
Table 1 reports the last financial statements reported by Satyam. Investors, financial analysts,
and regulators had available several financial indicators to detect fraudulent financial reporting,
1. There was the existence of large “accrued interests”, which raised the question of banks
not paying interest on Satyam’s fixed deposits versus just accruing interest (in hindsight
2. Satyam was showing continuous and aggressive sales growth at double digits as well as a
35% EPS growth over a period of 5 years. Jitendra Singh, a Wharton management
professor, argued, “when you have companies that are ostensibly growing their top lines
at 30%, 40% and 50%, it is possible to paper over things. Satyam was doing it by
boosting sales and profit. (Bernie Madoff was doing it by boosting rates of returns.)
Then, when growth rates slow down, you are unable to hide the financial reality of how
much cash you have.” Notably, when the whole industry is growing at a fast pace, it is
146
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
easier for companies within the industry to claim that they are doing well. The IT
outsourcing industry has been going exponentially in the last twenty years and Satyam
4. The proposed deal to purchase stakes into Maytas Properties and Maytas Infrastructure,
which were businesses connected with Raju’s family, was announced right before the
scandal started to unfold and caused bold opposition from the investor community. These
businesses were suffering severe financial problems due to the credit crunch. Investors
and financial analysts could not find any type of acquisition synergies and they alleged
that this proposed acquisition was an attempt by Raju to bridge the liquidity crunches of
both Maytas Properties and Maytas Infrastructure. At a time when companies worldwide
were building cash reserves to face the global financial turmoil, this proposed acquisition
In order to propose a more sophisticated framework to assess financial red flags, we applied
five recent financial fraud prediction models and ratios, as compiled by Grove et al. (2010),
namely:
1. Z-Score Fraud Prediction Model (Beneish 1999; updated by Basilico and Grove 2008)
147
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
These five financial red flag ratios and models were applied to the three most recent Satyam
financial statements, prior to the fraud being exposed (i.e., 2008, 2007, and 2006). The
Appendix contains a detailed description of the specifications of these five models and ratios.
As shown in Table 2 and Table 3, both fraud prediction models (i.e., the Z-Score and the F-
Score), did predict fraudulent financial reporting at Satyam based on financials reported by
Satyam in 2008 and 2007. Neither the Z-Score model nor the F-Score model predict fraudulent
financial reporting based on financials reported by Satyam in 2006. Results based on the fraud
detection models offer consistent evidence to predict fraud in Satyam in 2008 and 2009. Table 4
shows the values of the three fraud ratios (i.e., Sloan Accrual Measure, Quality of Earnings
Ratio, and Quality of Revenues Ratio) for 2008, 2007, and 2006. The Sloan Accrual Measure
indicates fraud only based on financial reported by Satyam in 2006. The Quality of Earnings
Ratio indicates fraud consistently throughout the three year period. The Quality of Revenues
Ratio indicates fraud based on financials reported by Satyam in both 2008 and 2007, yet does not
indicate fraud in 2006. Overall, by using financials reported by Satyam in 2008 and in 2007,
both fraud detection models and two out of three fraud ratios predict fraud; by using financials
reported by Satyam in 2006, none of two fraud detection models and only one out of three fraud
ratios predict fraud. These results show how the fraud in Satyam was significantly associated
with financial fraud indicators. The ability of these financial fraud indicators to predict fraud
increased as the unveiling of the fraud got closer in time, i.e., from 2006 to 2008.
Satyam had listed its ADRs on the NYSE, where foreign companies typically get listed in
order to raise capital at a lower cost partially because they accept NYSE’s higher standards of
148
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
corporate governance than many other stock exchanges. Table 5 reports the composition of the
Board of Directors. However, there were numerous non-financial red flags associated with a
1. All-Powerful CEO
According to recent studies (e.g., Cullinan and Sutton, 2002; Grove and Cook, 2007),
CEOs and senior managers were involved in 90% of the 276 companies cited by the
Releases (AAERs) from 1987-2001. This was true in the recent big fraudulent cases
is also the COB, meaning whenever CEO duality exists. Satyam was not a case of
pure CEO duality since Ramalinga Raju, COB, was not the CEO. Yet, his brother
Rama Raju was the CEO. Therefore, even though CEO duality could not be
determined, it was simple to recognize a lack of independence between the CEO and
2. Independent Directors
Board of Directors to improve the monitoring power over the management (Grove et
al. 2009). Table 5 shows the education, experience, and background of the five
independent directors. More than one member was linked to the Harvard University
circle and more than one member was involved with the Indian Government. These
149
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Nandini Raju, the wife of Ramalinga Raju, was a member of the Board of Directors
of more than ten Indian firms. Finally, Ramalinga Raju was constantly involved with
the Indian Government. Since 1995, Raju had befriended a Chief Minister, Naidu.
governmental support. For example, this strategy gave Raju and Satyam the
opportunity to buy prime real estate at very low prices. Naidu’s aim was to make the
Senior management often encourages weak control systems so that they can be easily
board’s background information reveals that the composition of the Audit Committee
and the education and experience of its members were inadequate to perform
effective financial auditing. Table 5 shows the lack of expertise in accounting and
finance of the board members, especially of those sitting on the Audit Committee.
Regarding this delicate corporate governance factor, investors were explicitly warned
by Satyam in its August 2008 Form 20-F. Satyam reported, "We do not have an
because our Board of Directors has determined that no individual audit committee
150
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
member possesses all the attributes required by the definition 'Audit Committee
Financial Expert.”
managerial attention from long-term value creation and can lead to shareholders’
presence in 30 countries and had 10,000 employees. Between 1997 and 2004, it
growth, coupled with evidence from several articles describing the history of Satyam,
point to the management style of the Raju brothers, focused on constant double digit
As Warren Buffet, worldwide well-known investment guru, effectively stated, “If you
don’t understand what a company does, don’t invest in it. If management refuses to
fill in holes and keeps investors in the dark, run!” A culture of financial opacity
investors had to raise their voice to prevent the Raju brothers from using their
151
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
When Satyam was still a private limited company, Raju family members were the
only ones managing the company’s finances. They used to take care of their other
family businesses, sometime diverting funds from one firms to another one without
any consistent financial plan and rigor. When it went public in 1991, Satyam lost its
preserve the interests of the new non-family shareholders. In 1992, the issue of using
cash reserves as investments in other sister companies was not properly disclosed. An
agreement had to be signed whereby the Satyam family members would stop using
Satyam’s cash reserves for their other, privately held family companies. Despite the
Investors reacted negatively and forced the Satyam brothers not to invest such funds
in their sister companies. In 2008, right before the confession of fraudulent reporting,
the issue of investing in sister companies (i.e., the Maytas companies) arose again.
Investors again questioned the reasons behind this investment strategy and stopped
the investment.
The case of Satyam teaches that in addition to applying the financial red flag ratios and
models for fraud risk management, an overall strategy to reduce fraudulent financial reporting is
to have strong corporate governance (Grove and Basilico 2010). Hilb (2005) proposes a
and reduce fraudulent financial reporting. This framework considers both financial and non-
financial elements and is based on the reverse KISS principle for corporate governance. The
152
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
acronym stands for Situational, Strategic, Integrated and Keep it controlled and it builds on the
shortcomings of more traditional corporate governance approaches and guidelines which tend to
propose a dangerous universal approach and often lack (i) strategic direction within board
practices; (ii) integration and professionalism in board selection, appraisal, remuneration and
development; and (iii) in depth know-how in auditing, risk management, communication and
evaluation.
Situational
industry, size, etc.) of the firm. At one extreme, there are national jurisdictions (i.e., US and UK)
based on diffused shareholding and stock options and equity based compensation of managers,
where commonly there are strong incentives to inflate short-term earnings. At the other extreme,
in countries like India, shareholding is concentrated and the critical actor is the controlling
shareholder or “promoter” (not senior management). In such situations, frauds are typically not a
result of inflation of earnings but related party transactions, like siphoning of assets to other
sister companies owned by the controlling shareholder. Satyam has been named the “Enron of
India” but it was really more similar to Parmalat (the “Enron of Europe”) which also involved
affiliated transactions and misstatement of financials from stealing company cash. As argued by
Dossi et al. (2010), the form of the relationship between ownership and management shape the
structure of corporate governance. Investors, financial analysts, and regulators should claim the
adoption of different corporate governance structures in different situational contexts and future
153
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Strategic
Hilb (2009) recommends that members of the Board of Directors should “possess the
team roles, such as a critical thinker or a financial controller. In addition, each member should
play the role of one stakeholder (customer, shareholder, employee and the society).” Moreover,
according to Hilb (2005), “an effective Board structure is comprised of a small, legally, well
independent members and the CEO. In addition, the board should conduct its activities through
only two committees: an integrated audit and risk management committee and an integrated
board management committee”. Table 5 clearly and succinctly shows how the composition of
Satyam’s Board of Directors does not meet any of the recommendations concerning the Strategic
Integrated
The components within this Integrated dimension relate to Board Selection, Board
Feedback, Board Remuneration, and Board Development. The visibility and market perception
or relationships with the promoters should not be the only criteria while choosing independent
directors. In India, where social power heavily depends on belonging to a given class, it is hard
the Indian Government does not require a Nomination Committee, which is another mechanism
that could enhance the Board Selection dimension of corporate governance. By exclusively
involving Indian politicians or individuals with pre-existing ties with other directors, Satyam’s
154
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Board Selection was severely limited and inherently ineffective. Regular Board Feedback should
be linked to the performance of the supervisory Board, the managing Board and the company
(Hilb 2008). Finally, to overcome a short-term focus, the Board of Directors should design
consistent compensation packages for top management to consider the interests of all
stakeholders. Such compensation packages should be divided into a mix of fixed and variable
components (Hilb 2008). Further, in family businesses, it is key that the Board of Directors
formalized approach.
Keep it controlled
The components within this Keep it Controlled dimension relate to the auditing, risk
management, communication, and evaluation functions of the Board. According to Hilb (2005),
the “external auditor is the only external institution that can give an objective view of the
financial condition of the company. In order to ensure the independence of the external auditors,
both the auditors and the auditing firm should be changed periodically. The task of the internal
auditors is to establish a financial supervision that is as independent and objective as possible for
the audit committee and the Board.” Satyam had used the international auditing firm of
PricewaterhouseCoopers since Satyam went public in 2001. External auditors should be changed
recommendations include:
1. the need to shift the appointment of the external auditors from the controlling
shareholders to the independent audit committee. In Satyam, that shift never took place;
155
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
2. the need for periodic meetings between the audit committee members and auditors
without the presence of management. The 2008 Form 20F filed by Satyam clearly stated
3. the establishment of an oversight board (present in the U.S. and absent in India) which
would review the intensity and the integrity of audits on an annual basis.
After Ramalingam Raju admitted fraud and resigned as the COB of Satyam with his letter
of January 7, 2009, the Indian Company Law Board notified Satyam that it intended to appoint
nominees to form the new Board at Satyam. By January 16, 2009, the Ministry of Corporate
Name Background
While awaiting the appointment of a COB by the Company Law Board, there was a
rotating COB at the meetings of the Satyam’s Board of Directors. On January 24, the new Board
of Directors appointed Deloitte and KPMG to restate the accounts of Satyam and decided to
focus on “business continuity” by arranging funds for expenses and vendor payments. On
156
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
February 5, the Board announced the appointment of a new CEO, A.S. Murthy, who was
promoted from his previous role as Head of Satyam’s Leadership Development Group and had
been with Satyam since 1994. On April 13, 2009, via a formal public auction process, 46% stake
in Satyam was purchased by Tech Mahindra. Satyam rebranded its services under the new
Mahindra management as Mahindra Satyam, effective July 2009. In February 2009, SEBI
announced corporate governance changes to be implemented in India including the rule that all
listed companies need to obtain a peer audit and cases of pledging of promoter shareholdings
The Satyam scandal clearly presented financial and non-financial (i.e., corporate
governance) red flags. In particular, we showed the results of the application of two financial
fraud detection models, three fraud ratios, and the analysis of five corporate governance factors.
Four out of the five red flag models and ratios predicted fraud in both 2007 and 2008, but there
were only two such red flags in 2006. These results based on this longer time period suggest a
strong validity of the financial red flags examined and strengthen the robustness of our results.
They reflect the typical fraud scenario where more red flags emerge the closer to the year of
fraud implosion or discovery, i.e., from 2006 to 2008 here. Thus, they effectively highlight the
The reverse KISS framework proposed by Hilb (2005) is beneficial for both the company
and the investors. On the one hand, it is fair to assume that corporate governance mechanisms
can be highly influenced by managers and Hilb’s framework offers a broad set of guidelines to
guide the design of the different corporate governance mechanisms in an integrated way. On the
other hand, investors do have significant power in shaping the corporate governance through
157
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
voting rights and other representation mechanisms. Therefore, Hilb’s framework offers a set of
principles that investors should expect from companies. In addition to its usefulness for
designing effective corporate governance, Hilb provides a framework of non-financial red flags
to predict frauds. This additional benefit of Hilb’s framework is particularly in line with the
purpose of our study which is aimed at presenting the Satyam case and the predictive power of
financial and non-financial (i.e., corporate governance) factors for fraud detection. Also, a key
preventive strategy is to develop a strong corporate governance system that needs to be holistic,
by focusing not only on shareholders but also on all the other stakeholders such as employees,
customers, and society (i.e., the public and the environment). We propose the reverse KISS
framework which could support the regulatory function of the legislators and the evaluation
158
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Income Statement
(amounts in $ million)
Balance Sheet
(amounts in $ million)
159
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Inventory
Additional Data
Capital Expenditures 70 60 65
160
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Total Accruals to Total Assets Index 0.018 0.031 0.037 (0.242) (0.026)
Table 3: F-Score Fraud Prediction Model, Dechow, Ge, Larson and Sloan (2007)
Fraud F-Score
∆ WC $ 151 $ (346) NA
∆ FIN $ 13 $ 2 NA
∆ AR 0.1280 0.1241 NA
161
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Actual Issuance 1 1 1
162
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Rama Managing Director, promoter and Executive Director Advanced Management Program from
163
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Prof. V.S. Independent and Non Executive Director Board, Defense Research and
Government of India
Appendix
Five fraudulent financial reporting models and ratios were used to try to predict fraud at
Satyam as a comprehensive financial red flag approach in screening for and identifying financial
reporting problems in publicly held companies rather than just using traditional ratios.
Beneish (1999) developed a statistical model used to detect financial statement fraud and
earnings management through a variety of metrics. There are five key ratios used in the model,
which are the Sales Growth Index (SGI), Gross Margin Index (GMI), Asset Quality Index (AQI),
Days Sales in Receivables Index (DSRI), and Total Assets to Total Accruals (TATA). Each of
these measures with its model coefficient, based upon Beneish’s research, is outlined below.
164
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
There is also a constant value in the model of -4.840. The red flag benchmark is a Z-Score
greater than a negative 1.99, i.e., a smaller negative number or a positive number indicates
possible financial reporting problems (Beneish 1999). For example, Enron had a Z-Score of a
This measure is current year sales divided by prior year sales. It is meant to detect
abnormal increases in sales which may be the result of fraudulent revenue recognition. If a
company experiences a very large increase in sales from one period to the next, it may be
because they are shifting revenue to a later period or booking phony revenue.
This measure is last year’s gross margin divided by this year’s gross margin. While not
necessarily a direct measure for potential manipulation, companies that are experiencing
declining gross margins may have increased pressure to improve financial performance. Such
pressure may cause them to turn to fraud or questionable financial reporting to maintain net
income margins.
This measure is the percentage of total assets that are intangible assets this year divided
by the same percentage calculation for last year. An increase in this index may represent
additional expenses that are being capitalized to preserve profitability. Rather than expensing
various costs, such as research and development or advertising, these costs are being capitalized
This measure is DSRI this year divided by DSRI last year. Companies that are trying to
165
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
boost revenue and profit will often allow customers to have greatly extended credit terms so that
they will buy earlier. This practice increases revenue in the current quarter but will hurt the
company in the future. This metric is meant to detect companies which make significant changes
in their collection policies or which recognize phony or early revenues. It could reflect a general
economic slowdown which could impact most companies and, thus, not be an effective signal.
This measure represents total expense accruals to total assets. Such accruals represent
non-cash earnings. Similar to Sloan’s accrual measure and the upcoming accrual measure in the
earnings manipulation and possible operating and free cash flow problems.
The new F-Score fraud model (Dechow, Ge, Larson, and Sloan 2007) can be used as
another initial test in determining the likelihood of financial reporting manipulation. Similar to
the other models and ratios, a fraudulent score for this model does not necessarily imply such
manipulation but it serves as a red flag for further analysis. The model contains measures to
identify problems in accruals, receivables, inventory, cash sales, earnings and stock issuances as
discussed below with their coefficients, based upon their research. There is also a constant value
of -6.753 in the model. The red flag benchmark is an F-Score greater than 1.0 and is calculated
using an exponential model. For example, the F-Score for Enron in its last year of operation was
1.85. Their research is the most extensive of the two fraud models (designated as the old and the
new models) since it was based upon an examination of all AAERs issued between 1982 and
2005 while the older Beneish study was based only on AAERs issued between 1982 and 1992.
166
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Accruals x 0.773
Firms that engage in earnings manipulation typically have abnormally high accruals. A
significant amount of non-cash earnings results in inflated earnings and is a warning sign for
earnings manipulation. This measure is a complex calculation based upon numerous accrual
measures and is scaled by average total assets. Essentially any business transactions other than
The change in receivables from last year to this year is scaled by average total assets.
Large changes in accounts receivables may indicate revenue and earnings manipulation. Such
manipulation can occur through the early or phony recognition of revenue and large swings in
The change in inventories from last year to this year is scaled by average total assets.
liquidation. For example, if the company uses the last-in first-out (LIFO) method of accounting
for inventory in a period of rising prices, selling older inventory will result in lower cost of goods
sold, i.e., LIFO liquidation of inventory units or layers. This practice leads to inflated earnings.
This measure is the percentage change in cash sales from last year to this year. For a firm
not engaged in earnings manipulation, the growth rate in cash sales could be compared to the
growth rate in revenues but these researchers did not include such an analysis. They argued and
modeled that just the change in cash sales is a key metric to monitor when evaluating the
167
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
This measure is a percentage calculated as earnings divided by total assets this year less
the same measure last year. Volatile earnings may be indicative of earnings manipulation.
According to Dechow, Ge, Larson, and Sloan (2007), a consistent theme among manipulating
firms is that they have shown strong performance prior to manipulations. The cause for such
manipulations may be a current decline in performance which the management team attempts to
This measure is a dummy variable that is ON if additional securities are issued during the
manipulation year and is OFF if no such securities are issued. Such issuances may indicate
operating cash flow problems that need to be offset by additional financing. Also, issuance of
stock may indicate management is exercising stock options. The exercise of stock options may
signify that managers are attempting to sell at the top because they foresee future
underperformance of the company. Such insider sales resulted in the criminal conviction of
Qwest’s Chief Executive Officer and have been a significant non-financial red flag in many
fraud cases, like Enron, Global Crossing, and WorldCom. For example, Qwest and Enron
insiders made $2.1 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively, by exercising and selling their stock
The Sloan accrual measure (1996 and updated as discussed by Robinson 2007) is based
on the analysis of accrual components of earnings. It is calculated as follows: net income less
free cash flows (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) divided by average total assets.
168
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
The red flag benchmark is a ratio of more than 0.10. For example, Sloan calculated that JetBlue
had a ratio of 0.50 and his employer, Barclays Global Investors, shorted the stock and made over
This ratio is used to help determine the quality of a company’s earnings based on the
amount of accruals included in income. If a large portion of a company’s earnings are based
more on accruals, rather than operating and free cash flows, then, it is likely to have a negative
impact on future stock price since the income is not coming from the company’s actual
operations (Sloan 1996). Since many of the accrual components of net income are subjective,
managers are able to manipulate earnings to make the company appear more profitable. In
essence, the Sloan accrual measure is used to help determine the sustainability of a company’s
earnings.
The quality of earnings ratio is a quick and simple way to judge the quality of a
company’s reported net income. The ratio is operating cash flow for the period divided by net
income for the period. The red flag benchmark is a ratio of less than 1.0 (Schilit 2003). Also,
large fluctuations in this ratio over time may be indicative of financial reporting problems, i.e.,
Enron’s quality of earnings ratios were 4.9, 1.4, and 2.3 over its last three years of operation. In
its last year of operation, Enron forced its electricity customers to prepay in order to receive any
electricity which dramatically increased its operating cash flows and quality of earnings ratio.
earnings, possibly to cover up operating problems. This ratio may indicate that a company has
earnings which are not actually being converted into operating cash. Methods for inflating
169
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
earnings (but not operating cash flows) include early booking of revenue, recognizing phony
The quality of revenues ratio is similar to the quality of earnings, except that the
emphasis is on cash relative to sales rather than cash relative to net income. It is the ratio of cash
collected from customers (revenues plus or minus the change in accounts receivable) to the
company’s revenue. Similar to the quality of earnings ratio, the red flag benchmark is a ratio of
less than 1.0 (Schilit 2003). For example, Enron’s quality of revenues went down from 0.98 to
0.92 in its last year of operation. Since manipulation of revenue recognition is a common
method for covering up poor results, this simple metric can help uncover schemes used to inflate
revenues without the corresponding cash collection. Common methods include extending
increased credit terms to spur revenues but with slow collections, shifting future revenues into
Bibliography
Basilico, E., Cook, T. and H. Grove, “Detection of Fraudulent Financial Reporting: An Empirical
Analysis,” Oil, Gas & Energy Journal, September 2005, Volume 54, Number 1, pp. 1-31.
Beasley, M., B. Branson and B. Hancock, “Are You Identifying Your Most Significant Risks?”
170
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
“Beyond Satyam: Analyzing Corporate Governance in India,” Excerpt from Panel Discussion at
Buffett, W., CEO Letter, Berkshire and Hathaway Annual Reports, 2004-present.
Code of Conduct and Ethics for Directors and Associates, Satyam, 2008.
Cook, T. and H. Grove, “Stock Market Reactions to Allegations of Fraud and Earnings
December 2009.
Reengineered Audit Processes and the Likelihood of Detecting Fraud,” Critical Perspectives in
Dechow, P., W. Ge, C. Larson, and R. Sloan, “Predicting Material Accounting Manipulations,”
Dossi, A., L. Patelli, and L. Zoni, “The Missing Link between Corporate Performance
Measurement Systems and Chief Executive Officer Incentive Plans”, Journal of Accounting,
171
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Grove, H. and E. Basilico, “Major Financial Reporting Frauds of the 21st Century: Corporate
Governance and Risk Lessons Learned,” Journal of Forensic and Investigative Accounting,
Grove, H., Aljifri, K. and L. Victoravich, “Corporate Governance Listing Requirements: Investor
Protection from Fraudulent Financial Reporting,” E Journal of Corporate Finance, 2009, No. 1
(9).
Grove H. and E. Basilico, “Fraudulent Financial Reporting Detection: Key Ratios Plus Corporate
Grove, H., T. Cook, E. Streeper, and G. Throckmorton, “Bankruptcy and Fraud Analysis:
Shorting and Selling Stocks”, Journal of Forensic and Investigative Accounting, July-December
Grove H. and T. Cook, Fraudulent Financial Reporting Detection: Corporate Governance Red
Flags,” Corporate Ownership and Control, Summer 2007, Volume 4, Issue 4, pp. 254-261.
Grove, H., T. Cook, and J. Goodwin, “Enron Red Flags,” Journal of Financial Education,
Grove, H. and T. Cook, “Lessons for Auditors: Quantitative and Qualitative Red Flags,”
172
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Guha, R., “Wider Fraud Is Seen At India’s Satyam,” Dow Jones Newswires, December 2, 2009.
Hilb, M., “New Corporate Governance: Form Good Guidelines to Great Practice,” Corporate
Hilb, M, “Redesigning Corporate Governance: Lessons Learnt from the Global Financial Crisis,”
Hilb, M., New Corporate Governance: Successful Board Management Tools, Third Edition,
Springer, 2008.
Kapil, S. and K. Kapil, “Satyam: The Story of Truth Case Study,” Indian Institute of Foreign
Trade, 2008.
Kripalani, M., “India’s Madoff? Satyam Scandal Rocks Outsourcing Industry,” Business Week,
173
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
Paranjoy G., “Satyam Scam Questions Corporate Governance,” IPS Inter Press Service, October
Robinson, W., “Barclays PhD’s Build Hedge Fund Giant,” Business Week, May 1, 2007, pp. 80-
89.
“Satyam Acquires Infrastructure Firms for $1.6 Billion,” www.thaindian.com, Dec 2008.
“Satyam Fraud: Corporate Governance Comes Under Lens,” The Economic Times, January 11,
“Scandal at Satyam: Truth, Lies and Corporate Governance,” India Knowledge@ Wharton,
January 2009.
Schilit, H. Financial Shenanigans, Second Edition, Center for Financial Research Analysis, 2003.
Schilit, H., “Financial Shenanigans: Detecting Accounting Gimmicks that Destroy Investments,”
Sloan, R., “Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows About Future
174
Journal of Forensic & Investigative Accounting
Vol. 4, Issue 2, 2012
raju/411981/.
pp. 36-39.
Vankatesha B., “The Truth about Satyam: Rise and Fall of Ramalinga Raju,” The Wall Street
175