Aviation-2030
Aviation-2030
Operators continue to come and go, We do this through the lens of:
but the scaling of profitable models
since the 1990s has sustained longer • OEMs (Original Equipment
than many would have predicted. Manufacturers)
Likewise, aviation finance has grown • Lessors
with fleet scale, dozens of specialist • Operators
lessors now serve a distinct and
• MROs (Maintenance, repair and
global need.
overhaul (organizations))
• Airports
About this report
This report combines insights As leading advisors to the global
from KPMG member firms aviation sector, KPMG professionals
recent and ongoing client present a vision of the aviation
engagement with secondary landscape in 2030 and beyond.
research. We have also included
several client quotations from
sector conversations in late 2019.
© 2019 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client
services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
All rights reserved.
2 Aviation 2030
Disruption radar
The landscape of technologies impacting aviation can be visualized in the format below. Our disruption radar groups
relevant technologies and business models by their relative maturity, as a guide for business leaders to investment
relevance and urgency.
Figure 1: Sector disruption radar with examples (technologies and business models) by illustrative relative maturity
Hypersonic
1 st class
Next gen Auto -pilot
Quantum supersonic Project Sunrise
computing
Ticketless boarding
Big data & Hub -to-hub
UltraFan Voice analytics
Electric, hybrid and technology P2C conversion
engines
hydrogen aircraft
Biofuel
Maintenance 3D printing / Premium economy
Flying V Drones ULR
additive manufacturing LCCs
Nascent Sunrise Strategic Table-stakes Mature Sunset
Composite materials Point -to-point
Snakes and beetles Blockchain
(Maintenance Turboprops
Robotics) Artiÿcial
Intelligence (AI) Cybersecurity Fleet renewal
Urban air
mobility Virtual and
Satellite based air
Augmented
(VTOL / eVTOL) traffic
° surveillance
Reality (VR/AR)
Biometrics
Low-cost long-haul
Shark skin
Unmanned planes
There are many predictions about these and other technologies, with much focus on the technical aspects. Given the
investment horizons in this industry are often 15+ years, it logically follows that which business models are winning or
failing in the 2030s is already being infuenced by decisions today.
Our focus, therefore, is the implications these technologies have on clients’ strategic choices and investment
cases today.
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 3
Figure 2: Framework for disruption
Grouping some of the newer, emergent technologies, we identify some big themes for 2030. Using the framework
below, we can explore the implications of each theme by stakeholder.
Financiers
Operators
Lessors /
Airports
OEMs
Area Examples
MROs
Composite materials (e.g. carbon fibre,
aluminium), better aerodynamics (e.g. Flying
Plane design
V), shark skin tech, fleet renewal, quantum
computing to accelerate design testing
Alternate sources
Biofuel, electric and hybrid engines
of energy
3D printing
/ additive Aircraft parts, cabin interiors, engine parts
manufacturing
Voice Technology Siri and Alexa for live updates and check-in
Supersonic
Speed Engine and aircraft advances
Hypersonic
New locations
Vertical take-off and landing (VTOL/eVTOL), MaaS
Access in intra-urban and longer distance, non-airport
On-demand
pick up
platforms
This paper, the first of the Aviation 2030 series, covers the above highlighted areas, considering implications across each
of the 5 stakeholder types. Subsequent papers will address other areas.
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
4 Aviation 2030
Alternative sources of energy
Mounting external pressure will not settle for sector’s incremental improvements.
Figure 3: Aviation emissions in context, CO2 per passenger kilometer
Rail
Passenger rail, metro, tram
Waterborne
Passenger ferry
Air
Passenger aircraft
Aviation, as a major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter,6 faces However, with words meaning ‘the shame of fying’
severe pressure to reduce its environmental impact, entering Swedish, Dutch, German and Danish, it is clear
from both consumers and governments.7 The industry is that aviation will need more than a PR offensive to fourish
committed to cutting CO2 emissions to half 2005 levels as consumer environmentalism grows. Shark skin paint
by 2050.8 A range of technologies promise to help it do so, will soon begin to bring incremental effciency gains
but many of the potential game changers, such as feet through reduced air drag.
electrifcation, still look remote. Aviation will therefore
come under increasing pressure over the next decade. As fgure 4 summarizes, alternative sources of energy,
especially waste-derived biofuels, offer realistic prospects
In part, this demands a better, evidence-based response of emissions cuts in the near-term, and it is no surprise
from the sector. As Figure 3 demonstrates, there is much they are being explored by players such as British
overlap in emission effciency per passenger distance. Airways, Cathay, United and Virgin. Companies like Neste,
More can and should be done to set modern, fuel effcient LanzaTech, and Velocys, which have signed deals with
feets in the context of other means of transport - and operators to provide fuel made from waste products, offer
indeed other aspects of environmental footprint, such as opportunities to cut overall lifecycle GHG by over 50%,
diet, fast fashion or gadget consumerism. There are also without encouraging monocultures or deforestation. But
the positive externalities that fying has brought, like trade these efforts remain small-scale, due to the fragmented
and cross-cultural connections. Do we want to return to a nature of the supply chain and the diffculty of securing
world where only the elite fy again? fuel certifcation and fnance for major production plants.
© 2019 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent
member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 5
Figure 4: Well to wake comparison of biofuels versus standard aviation fuel
80 100
93% Biojet GHG emissions
90%
Savings % 90
70
75% 80
60 70% 69%
70
Biojet GHG emissions gCO2e/M
60%
50
54% 60
Savings CO2e%
40 50
46% 40
30
37% 37% 30
20
20
10 18%
10
0 0
Energy Forestry Forestry Corn Corn Sugar Sugar Oilseed Jatropha Camelina Used
crops residues residues stover cane cane rape, soy cooking oil
Gassiÿcation and Pyrolysis Alcohol to jet DSHC Hydroprocessedesters and fatty acids (HEFA)
Fischer-Tropsch
Source: Aviation biofuels, Grantham Institute Briefng paper, Imperial College London
Biofuels have the added complexities of a fragmented supply chain (for used cooking oils and forestry residues) and
knock-on effects on food prices (where dedicated crops are used). If operators increase their demand, however,
winning business models will be found.
Traditional biofuels will represent a logistical challenge for the global aviation sector
– is there enough land to cultivate the required crops and how close is that to current
demand? By-products from foodservice and other sectors may be more appealing in
that regard. Initially it is likely to be blended fuel while the supply chains mature. We’re
hugely supportive of using biofuel and will be specifcally supporting that in the future.
On the ground, we’re migrating our vehicles to low emission transmissions and we
have targeted net carbon zero across our entire operations by 2050.
Chief Communications Offcer, a major European airport
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
6 Aviation 2030
Figure 5: Roadmap for emissions reductions in aviation, as projected by the IATA
Emissions assuming no action Aircraft technology (known), operations and infrastructure measures No action
Operations
Infrastructure
CO2 emissions
CNG 2020
-50% by 2050
Not to scale
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: The International Air Transport Association (IATA)
As Figure 5 summarizes, more radical action becomes Wright Electric and Easyjet have announced plans for a
increasingly important if 2050 goals are to be met. Fleet 180-seat electric aircraft to fy routes of up to 300 miles,
electrifcation promises these greater opportunities - aiming to operate from 2027.11 Zunum Aero, backed by
ultimately, no emissions at point of use. Recognizing the Boeing and JetBlue, is working on hybrid electric aircraft
size of the prize, carrots and sticks are being held out to for regional routes and is looking to fy in the early 2020s.12
operators. Heathrow has recently announced that the There are a host of others, but the challenges for all are
frst electric-hybrid aircraft to be put into service at the alike and many observers think the goal of widespread
airport will be exempt from landing charges for a year.9 all-electric commercial aviation is decades, not years,
The Norwegian government has announced that it wants all away. After Figures 6-7, we list the implications of these
domestic fights to be electric by 2040.10 Many observers technologies for individual stakeholders. Consider,
think even this timeframe is optimistic; challenges abound however, a sector-wide challenge. If ambitious technology
for would-be electric fyers, especially battery power/weight change will take 10-20 years to commercialize, but public
ratios. How can a battery compare with the energy density sentiment does not have that patience, will we see a
of fuel? Nonetheless, a number of startups, some backed resulting investment gap? Could an environmentally-
by major existing players, have tooled up. inspired slowdown in passenger numbers result in
insuffcient industry profts to reinvest back into R&D and
feet upgrades?
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 7
Figure 6: Battery cost and energy density trajectories
FORECAST
800 400
600 300
400 200
200 100
0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Can the current trajectory of battery improvements be maintained, or will chemistry get in the way? Novel
solutions under research include using the fuselage itself to become part of a battery’s capacity.
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
8 Aviation 2030
Figure 7a: Propulsion electrifcation projects by company type
46%
5%
Start-ups & independents
Western Europe
NAFTA region
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 9
We consider implications of decarbonization efforts by stakeholder type.
OEMs Operators
• Some fuels will require or enable modifications to • Will face growing pressure to make low carbon pledges,
existing engine designs, as well as new possibilities for and to demonstrate progress towards them. In the
operational efficiency and range.13 short term this is likely to mean a public commitment
• Difficult strategic decisions to be made about R&D to implementing biofuel as part of emissions reduction
priorities between biofuel optimization, electrification, measures.
and incremental improvements of ‘business as usual’ • Face a new safety challenge in the widespread adoption
designs. of batteries, which may pose a different fire hazard to
• Consider partnerships and/or acquisitions to stay abreast that of conventional fuel.
of technological developments in the nascent and • Extensive testing in order to embrace alternate fuel
rapidly-iterating electric market. variants. New fuels’ performance across a range of
• Find further airframe weight reductions to assist metrics must be assessed prior to deployment.14
electrification process. • Choose partners, from a wide range of options, to
• Overcome perception of batteries as prone to fires and deliver biofuel. Negotiate purchase agreements,
unsafe, involving both designing out the risk of fire or specifying volumes and timelines - fuel hedging will not
designing in suitable containment methods. be an option.
• May face new taxes to encourage biofuel adoption,
especially in the EU.15
Safety trumps everything in aviation. I believe this and the limitations of current
technologies will dampen the pace for electrification of commercial aircraft. Further
improvements in engine efficiency, sharkskin paint, and some biofuel blending represent
the more likely gains by 2030. Hybrid planes might be the realistic next step after that.
CEO, an aircraft finishing specialist
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
10 Aviation 2030
MROs Airports
• Electric drivetrains, with fewer parts to wear and tear, • Will face pressure to integrate biofuels into existing fuel
are likely to require less overall maintenance and could storage and distribution infrastructure.
shrink the overall engine MRO market. There will be • Potentially have an opportunity to grow traffc by
some compensations, especially in the form of battery establishing a lead in biofuel and/or electric handling
inspection and maintenance. supply and expertise.
• In the short term, likely to experience an uplift in • Getting biofuels cost-effciently to a critical mass of
demand for retrofts, as lessors and operators seek to airports may bring hidden logistical complexity.
optimize legacy feets for new energy sources including
• Will require ground equipment for rapid battery recharge
biofuel, hybrid-electric and fully electric.
to facilitate electric models, including battery cooling
• Will require reskilling of technical workforce to handle technology. This will require new in-house expertise or
new engine designs and technology. supplier relationships.
• With electric planes able to operate from much shorter
runways, airports may fnd that the transition to electric
There is a growing consumer led drive opens up major opportunities to reconfgure their
for greener sustainable travel which current use of space, affecting strategic decisions about
the aviation industry is responding to expansion.
with a commitment to a 50% reduction • Electric planes’ comparatively noiseless performance
in carbon emissions from their 2005 may remove the need for night-time fying restrictions,
opening up the possibility of round-the-clock operations
level. Sustainable aviation fuel such
at airports that are currently restricted.
as aviation biofuels will be key to this
• Similar to the dilemma for operators, point-to-point
ambition. We will support it whatever
eVTOL presents a threat to airport volumes beyond
way we can. As an airport reducing 2030. Some airports may respond by bringing their
our carbon footprint is a central theme capital and operational expertise to city center locations.
of our strategic planning and by next
year we will have achieved our target
of reducing our energy consumption
across the airport campus by one-third
since 2018.
CEO, a regional transatlantic airport group with
MRO investments
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 11
Maintenance
robotics
The fourth industrial revolution will impact aviation as
much in after-sales as initial production.
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services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
All rights reserved.
12 Aviation 2030
Figure 8: The digital race has accelerated across all types of MRO
2015
Honeywell / Aviaso
Honeywell acquired Aviaso to provide fuel efficiency and
Safran emission saving solutions.
Safran launched a new entity, Safran analytics.
This division was tasked with federating all Safran
activities concerning Big data.
2016
Predix
Air France KLM Group / Prognos Flydubai and GE launch network insights digital solutions to
Air France KLM’s platform Prognos provides provide Intelligenet Network software for efficient recovery of
predictive maintenance software designed to disruptions across the airline‘s fleet of B737 aircraft.
capture data from aircraft in-flight and on the ground
across available connectivity links.
2017
Airbus Skywise
Skywise is an open data platform developed by Airbus for the
aviation industry providing insights from large amounts of data
to help operators optimize decision-making in maintenance,
Boeing AnalytX engineering and flight operations, and in turn reduce costs.
Boeing AnalytX utilizes Boeing’s expertise with
data-based information to give empowered decision
support to optimize operations and missions.
AAR
AAR launched new digital services (PAARTS STORE and
AARive real-time).
2019
FLYdocs / Safran / SITA / Sky Republic
MRO blockchain alliance to gain greater visibility
over the life cycle of aircraft parts.
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 13
5
9
Digital-backed preemptive maintenance could save operators billions over the next decade. The level of data obtained
from next generation aircrafts like Boeing 787s, A350s, Bombardier CSeries (now A220), A320neo, B737MAX, B747-
8, A330neo, Embraer E2 Jets and the upcoming B777X means an ever clearer view of each asset’s current health
and capabilities. With CAGR growth of ~32% (see Figure 9), the NexGen feet is expected to save airlines ~US$5 billion
year on year with digitization of MRO over the next decade (see Figure 10).
74%
96%
48%
26%
4%
Ordered ˜eet of next generation aircrafts to be delivered over the next decade
6,381
4,849
Highlighted aircrafts in teal represent
aircrafts with e-Enabled installed and
having higher digitization capabilities
1,401
884
392 330 330 326 242 150
A350
A220
A380
B787
E2-Jets
B777x
B747-8
A330neo
A320neo
B737MAX
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14 Aviation 2030
Figure 10: Cost reduction from digitization
Digitization could enable airlines to save in excess of US$5 billion per year.
~US$3.0bn(conservative estimate)
~US$1.7bn
(conservative estimate)
~US$0.8bn
(conservative estimate)
Driven by improved dispatch Continuous fight optimization Improved turnaround process, in-
reliability. No fault found reduction, through live weather updates, speed fight routing optimization.
inventory reduction and improved and altitude optimization.
labor productivity.
38,000 130
32,000 70
25,000 0
2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Tempering this optimism in technology, however, are a number of practical considerations. Drones, for example, will face
understandable breaks to their deployment in and near hangers within commercial airports. In other areas, like paintwork,
what is technically feasible might not yet be economically attractive.
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 15
MROs and operators may face the bulk of risks and opportunities.
OEMs Operators
• Robotization is expected to drive efficiencies throughout • Robotics and VR will reduce the need for technicians to
the manufacturing process, allowing headcount travel physically to locations to carry out inspection and
reductions in a notoriously labor-intensive process. maintenance work, as well as reduce the need for assets
• Strategic partnerships or acquisitions may be needed to to be removed from circulation for training and/or repair.
capitalize on the opportunities offered by robotics, IoT, • Predictive analytics will enable more accurate planning of
data, and analytics. shop visits and their costs, facilitating improved budget
management and reduced maintenance costs.
• Drones can be used to inspect and scan areas of
Lessors potential damage before planes are sent to the shop for
repair, resulting in less downtime.
• Drones and robots together expected to produce step-
• The impact of robotics from a lessor point of view is changes across a range of metrics, including: punctuality,
relatively limited. Predictive analytics and sensor data aircraft downtime, maintenance costs, and safety. At
will help lessors better predict maintenance events and such a rate of change, the rewards for shrewd investment
thus reduce maintenance reserves. in these technologies will be substantial and the penalties
for falling behind the curve could be severe – operators
• Lessors may need to rethink the economically useful life
will face difficult decisions about investment priorities.
of an aircraft as the pace of innovation accelerates – new
depreciation curves will mean rethinking the economics • Trend monitoring will enable lower inventories of parts
of overhauling older planes. as operators are able to predict demand for life-limited
parts more accurately. They will also enable more
efficient scheduling of shop visits, and improved fleet
In the area of paintwork, automation is management.
technically feasible but the economics
don’t yet stack up. Robotics would
Maintenance drones are an interesting
have to become significantly cheaper
development, but in practical terms
to displace the labor cost which
their roll-out will be faster where
is currently required to apply the
maintenance facilities are not adjacent
coatings as part of the overall scope of
to commercial airports. No fly drone
work, and with advancements in the
zones operate at airports for safety
coatings products, the business case
and security reasons. There are many
for automation may actually become
operational risks that still need to be
harder to support.
understood and mitigated in relation
CEO, an aircraft finishing specialist
to drones.
Chief Communications Officer,
a major European airport
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16 Aviation 2030
Airports MROs
• Robots in a wider sense will impact airport operating • Predictive analytics will enable more accurate planning
models as they adapt to a range of tasks: scanning of shop visits and their costs, facilitating improved
boarding passes, checking bags, delivering baggage to budget management.
planes, assisting lost passengers, and more. They will • Drones and robots likely to allow MRO players to
help airports handle growing passenger numbers by reduce headcounts and time of maintenance tasks,
reducing congestion and increasing alertness to security and increase operating margins in the long term – but
threats. it is more crucial than ever for them to make shrewd
• In terms of maintenance, robots may render existing technology investment calls now.
inspection infrastructure – mechanical stands, inspection • Trend monitoring will enable lower inventories of parts
platforms – obsolete. New infrastructure to support as operators are able to predict demand for life-limited
the deployment of drones and robots for passenger parts more accurately. They will also enable more
management and plane inspection and maintenance will effcient scheduling of shop visits, logistics and feet
be indispensable. management.
• New rules or norms will be needed for the widespread • Cost of technical training should reduce with increasing
deployment of drones and robots at airports, to manage reliance on VR and digital methods instead of live assets.
potential safety concerns and overcome passenger
• Ultimately MROs will need to reshape their business
skepticism (in parallel with more robust means of
model around a new paradigm of condition-based
identifying and neutralizing uninvited drones).
maintenance.
• With less MRO revenue per airplane likely, investments
We see near-term innovation in the will be reliant on overall global feet expansion.
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member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 17
Return of supersonics
Concorde is no more, but the lure of supersonic fight remains strong.
A new generation of startups, undaunted by the history of supersonic and building on a range of technological
advancements, are resurrecting the idea of sub-3-hour fights between New York and London. Travel time at supersonic
speed considerably decreases for longer distances (see Figure 12), with Tokyo to London taking ~5 hours instead of ~10
hours.
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500
None of the challenges that grounded
Dallas -
Seattle Concorde have gone away:
the noise pollution of sonic booms;
New York - the high costs of developing and
Seattle
fying supersonic planes; the
New York - emissions profle; the uncertainty
Los Angeles around market appetite. But major
bets are being struck that these
Dubai -
London problems can be engineered away
in the near future, with established
New York -
value chain players (including NASA,
London
see Figure 13) putting their weight
Dallas - London
behind the ambitious initiatives in
the space.
Dubai - Tokyo
London - Beijing
Seattle - Beijing
London -
Los Angeles
Beijing -
Sydney
London -
Tokyo
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Travel time (hours)
Passenger plane (hours) Private Jet (hours) Supersonic (hours) Air distance (nm)
Sources: QSTA range map – Lockheed Martin, Travel time calculator – Paramount Business Jet
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18 Aviation 2030
Figure 13: NASA’s goals for supersonic aircraft development25
Environmental Goals
Cruise Emissions (Cruise NOx g/kg of <10 <5 & particulate and water vapour
fuel) mitigation
Effciency Goals
Aerion, building a supersonic business jet, will be taking Airlines and Virgin Atlantic.27 Spike Aerospace, focused
its engine from GE Aviation and avionics from Honeywell on a luxury 12-seater, says it is in ‘detailed discussions’
Aerospace.26 Boom Supersonic, looking to build a with both Rolls-Royce and GE Aviation about supplying
supersonic 55-seater, has pre-sold 30 planes to Japan engines.28
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Aviation 2030 19
The fact that renewed enthusiasm for supersonic is concentrated in business
jets, rather than full scale commercial passenger planes, refects a wider
re-segmentation in the market – with improved economics of private charter
helping the rise in business jet volumes (Figure 15) and with commercial frst
class being cannibalized by business class (Figure 16).
24,000
22,211
22,000
19,818
20,000
18,000
16,000
13,913
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2008 2018 2023F
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services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
All rights reserved.
20 Aviation 2030
Figure 16: Reducing demand for first class
The rise of private jets to travel long haul has seen a parallel fall in first class.
Note: (a) For flights longer than 3,000 nautical miles United Airlines -52.6
Source: The Economist
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Aviation 2030 21
The implications here are perhaps biggest for OEMs and smaller airports.
OEMs Operators
• Major new design challenges and market opportunities • Establish existence and size of addressable markets,
presented by renewed demand for supersonic jets; against a backdrop of substantial ambiguity concerning
manufacturers will need to push beyond the currently feasibility, routes, costs, and pricing. Assumptions about
possible in order to create engines that can achieve the this will govern asset leasing decisions and build specs.
required velocities whilst also meeting environmental • Operators have a major challenge reconciling supersonic
standards. travel with low carbon pledges, and will need to
• Designing out the sonic boom to facilitate overland understand what environmental performance the public
travel is another major challenge manufacturers will have will be willing to tolerate for increased speed ‘for the
to solve in order to open up the routes envisaged by few’.
supersonic proponents.29 • Lobby regulators to update noise restrictions in order to
• Opportunity to pioneer a new segment in the market pave the way for relatively quieter models to fy.
and steal a march on competitors; breakthroughs in
supersonic technology will facilitate lucrative market
capture. At the same time, manufacturers risk being
distracted from other, perhaps incompatible, strategic
goals, such as environmental harm abatement.
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22 Aviation 2030
Lessors Airports MROs
• Early signals from operators • Likely to face intense pressure • Technicians will need to familiarize
suggest they may be more likely from a range of stakeholders over themselves with a new generation
to own and co-develop than lease noise from supersonics as well as of supersonic aircraft and parts,
these prestige, high-value assets. their environmental impacts. requiring extensive retraining and
• With longer-term stakeholders, • As supersonic aircraft could possibly retooling.
newer Chinese lessors could be signifcantly increase the area • Maintenance contracts for
early adopters of the supersonic around airports exposed to supersonic likely to be more
through wet leases to charter substantial noise pollution, larger, lucrative than for conventional
airlines or even commercial airlines. urban airports in particular may not aircraft, with supersonics requiring
risk their social license to operate, more regular maintenance and
preferring instead expansion of more specialized equipment.
conventional routes.30
• With the business jet emphasis
for new supersonic projects, those
airports most likely to embrace a
return of supersonic are smaller,
dedicated private airfelds or more
out-of-town locations.
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Aviation 2030 23
Conclusion
The relative golden age of the aviation sector may well
continue – economic recessions notwithstanding –
through 2030.
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services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
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24 Aviation 2030
Sourcing 1. IATA Forecasts Passenger Demand to Double Over 20 Years, IATA, 18
October 2016. (https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2016-10-18-02.
aspx)
& notes 2. Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector, ATKINS. (https://
www.atkinsglobal.com/~/media/Files/A/Atkins-Corporate/aviation-trends-
white-paper-digital.pdf)
4. Getting mobility off the ground, KPMG in the US, 2019. (https://institutes.
kpmg.us/manufacturing-institute/articles/2019/getting-mobility-off-the-
ground.html)
5. The Aviation Industry Leaders Report 2018, KPMG in Ireland, 2019. (https://
home.kpmg/ie/en/home/insights/2018/01/aviation-industry-leaders-report.
html)
7. ‘Flight shame’ has Swedes rethinking air travel: Passengers are shunning
planes out of guilt over the effects of fying on climate change, Daily
Mail, 10 April 2019. (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/
article-6906379/Swedes-shunning-planes-guilt-effects-fying-climate-
change.html)
8. IATA Forecast Predicts 8.2 billion Air Travelers in 2017, IATA, 24 October
2018. (https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2018-10-24-02.aspx)
9. First electric aircraft at Heathrow won’t pay landing fees for a year, Your
Heathrow, 15 October 2018. (https://your.heathrow.com/frst-electric-
aircraft-at-heathrow-airport-wont-pay-landing-fees-for-a-year/)
10. Norway aims for all short-haul fights to be 100% electric by 2040, The
Guardian, 18 January 2018. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/
jan/18/norway-aims-for-all-short-haul-fights-to-be-100-electric-by-2040)
12. Zunum Aero bets on hybrid electric engines for its small commuter
jet, Tech Crunch, 4 October 2018. (https://techcrunch.com/2018/10/04/
zunum-aero-bets-on-hybrid-electric-engines-for-its-small-commuter-
jet/?renderMode=ie11)
13. Aerion Plans for 100 Percent Biofuel on AS2, AINonline, 4 April 2019.
(https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2019-04-04/
aerion-plans-100-percent-biofuel-as2)
© 2019 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client
services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 25
Sourcing 14. Sustainable Alternative Fuels, Lufthansa Group. (https://www.
lufthansagroup.com/en/responsibility/climate-environment/fuel-
consumption-and-emissions/alternative-fuels.html)
& notes 15. Jet fuel tax hopes lifted by leaked EU report, Euractiv, 13 May 2019. (https://
www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/jet-fuel-tax-hopes-lifted-by-leaked-
eu-report/)
17. Robots Finding Their Place in Aviation Aftermarket, MRO Network, 7 March
2018. (https://www.mro-network.com/technology/robots-fnding-their-place-
aviation-aftermarket)
19. Future tech: robotic repair on the runway, Airport Technology, 6 May 2019.
(https://www.airport-technology.com/features/future-of-aircraft-inspection/)
20. Flying, clinging and crawling - using robots in MRO, Royal Aeronautical
Society, 2 April 2019. (https://www.aerosociety.com/news/fying-clinging-
and-crawling-using-robots-in-mro/)
21. Rolls-Royce and Qatar Airways use Virtual Reality to train engineers,
Rolls Royce, 15 April 2019. (https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press-
releases/2019/15-04-2019a-rr-and-qatar-airways-use-virtual-reality-to-train-
engineers.aspx)
23. Airbus Unveils New Era of Predictive Maintenance in Paris, Aviation Today,
26 June 2017. (https://www.aviationtoday.com/2017/06/26/airbus-unveils-
new-era-predictive-maintenance-paris/)
© 2019 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client
services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
All rights reserved.
26 Aviation 2030
Sourcing 27. Boom wants to build a supersonic jet for mainstream passengers; here’s its
game plan, Tech Crunch, 22 May 2019. (https://techcrunch.com/2019/05/22/
boom-wants-to-build-a-supersonic-jet-for-mainstream-passengers-heres-its-
28. Spike Aerospace hires Boeing veteran, wins supersonic jet orders and
nears engine deal, Biz Journals, 28 January 2019. (https://www.bizjournals.
com/seattle/news/2019/01/28/spike-aerospace-boeing-supersonic-jet-
orders.html)
29. Ibid.
© 2019 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client
services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.
All rights reserved.
Aviation 2030 27
Authors
Christopher Brown Kieran O’Brien About KPMG’s
Director Partner Global Strategy
Global Strategy Group Aviation Advisory
Group
KPMG in Ireland KPMG in Ireland
KPMG’s Global Strategy
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Group works with private,
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public and not-for-proft
organizations to develop and
implement strategy from
‘Innovation to Results’ helping
Charlie Simpson Jono Anderson clients achieve their goals
Partner Principal and objectives. KPMG Global
Global Strategy Group Global Strategy Group Strategy professionals develop
insights and ideas to address
KPMG in the UK KPMG in the US
organizational challenges such
E: [email protected] E: [email protected] as growth, operating strategy,
T: +44 20 7311 3671 T: +1 858 750 7330 cost, deals, digital strategy
and transformation.
Debarun Das
Senior Consultant
Global Strategy Group
KPMG in Ireland
E: [email protected]
T: +353 1410 2679
kpmg.com/strategy
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