2008-2009 Keynesian Resurgence: Navigation Search
2008-2009 Keynesian Resurgence: Navigation Search
2008-2009 Keynesian Resurgence: Navigation Search
• 1 Background
o 1.1 Competing views on macroeconomic policy
o 1.2 The Keynesian ascendancy: 1941–1979
o 1.3 Displacement by monetarism: 1979–1984
o 1.4 The era of pragmatism: 1984–2007
• 2 The Keynesian revival of 2008–2009
o 2.1 In the United States and Britain
o 2.2 In various nations
o 2.3 Effectiveness
o 2.4 Criticism
• 3 The Keynesian resurgence in academia
• 4 See also
• 5 Notes and references
• 6 External links
[edit] Background
[edit] Competing views on macroeconomic policy
Macroeconomic policy focuses on high level government decisions which affect overall national economies
rather than lower level decisions concerning markets for particular goods and services. The Keynesian
resurgence can be understood in the context of various competing perspectives from which policy
recommendations originate. A key issue of contention is the optimal level of government intervention in
economic affairs. For an overview on the different perspectives, see Liberal, Realist & Marxist. For more
detail on specific systems of thought relevant to debate on this fiscal policy see Keynesian economics,
Monetarism, Austrianism, New Classical economics, Real business cycle theory, and New Keynesian
economics.
Over the last sixty years, most strikingly in the Anglo American economies but to a large extent worldwide,
the two competing views receiving the most attention at policy-making level have been Keynesianism and
Monetarism. Commentators such as Sunday Times economics editor David Smith have gone as far to say
the "entire economics debate could be characterized as a struggle between Monetarists and Keynesians".
[5]
Monetarists advise minimal government intervention in the economy, apart from tightly controlling the
money supply and publicizing targets for future modest expansion, thus setting expectations so as to
reduce inflation. Monetarists also tend to favor free market policies such as clamping down on powerful
labor unions, fairly light regulation, and generally small government – although not typically to the
extremes favored by other economic liberals such as Austrian school economists and Libertarians.
Keynesians, in contrast to Monetarists, tend to place greater importance on the role of fiscal policy over
monetary policy in the ups and downs of the economic cycle; they advise government intervention,
especially in a recession where the standard recommendation is for increased government spending -
especially on capital projects such as infrastructure - and tax reductions in order to stimulate aggregate
demand. In a boom they often suggest measures to dampen demand such as raising taxes and interest
rates, and throughout the business cycle they prefer regulation of economic activity.
Keynesian Economics evolved from the Keynesian Revolution. In contrast to the recent resurgence of
Keynesian policy making the revolution comprised primarily a shift change in theory. [6] There had been
several experiments in policy making that can be seen as precursors for Keynes ideas, most notably
Franklin D. Roosevelt's famous "New Deal" (Roosevelt was US president from 1933 to 1945). These
experiments however had been influenced more by morals, geopolitics and political ideology than by new
developments in economics, although it is notable that Keynes had found some support in the US for his
ideas about counter-cyclical public-works policy as early as 1931.[7] According to Gordon Fletcher, Keynes'
General Theory provided a conceptual justification for 'New Deal'-type policies which was lacking in the
established economics of the day - immensely significant as in the absence of a proper theoretical
underpinning there was a danger that ad hoc policies of moderate intervention would be overtaken by
extremist solutions, as had already happened in much of Europe.[6] Keynes did not however agree with all
aspects of the New Deal; he considered that the almost immediate revival of business activity after the
program's launch could only be accounted for by psychological factors, which are dangerous to rely on,[8]
such as the boost to confidence by Roosevelt's inspiring oratory.
Since the 1940s the influence of Keynesian Economics on government policy makers has both waxed and
waned under pressure from free market economics, and now appears to be waxing once again.
Clement Attlee, British Prime Minister from 1945 to 1951, based his government's economic policy on Keynes' ideas.
See also: Golden Age of Capitalism
While working on his General Theory, Keynes wrote to George Bernard Shaw saying "I believe myself to be
writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize, not I suppose at once but in the course
of the next ten years – the way the world thinks about economic problems … I don't merely hope what I
say, in my own mind I'm quite sure".[9] Professor Keith Shaw wrote that this degree of self confidence was
quite amazing especially considering it took more than fifty years for the Newtonian revolution to gain
universal recognition; but also that Keynes's confidence was fully justified. [10] Keynes provided the main
inspiration for European and American economic policy makers from about 1941 – 1979. The fifties and
sixties, where Keynes's influence was at its peak, appears in retrospect as a golden age. [11] In late 1965
Time magazine ran a cover article with the title inspired by Milton Friedman's statement, later associated
with Nixon, that "We Are All Keynesians Now". The article described the exceptionally favourable economic
conditions then prevailing, and reported that "Washington's economic managers scaled these heights by
their adherence to Keynes's central theme: the modern capitalist economy does not automatically work at
top efficiency, but can be raised to that level by the intervention and influence of the government." The
article also states that Keynes was one of the three most important economists ever, and that his General
Theory was more influential than the magna opera of his rivals - Smith's The Wealth of Nations and Marx's
Das Kapital. [12]
The early 90s saw some instances of fiscal intervention by policymakers in the US and UK, and such
Keynesian remedies were never wholly dropped in Europe and other parts of the world. This period has
been described as a time of pragmatism[18], when, rather than following any one economic doctrine,
policymakers chose whatever solution seemed to suit the particular circumstances they faced best. Yet
free-market influences broadly sympathetic to Monetarism remained very strong at government level in
powerful normative institutions like the World Bank, IMF and US Treasury, and in prominent opinion-
forming media such as the Financial Times and the Economist.[19]
In March 2008, free-market guru Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times,
announced the death of the dream of global free-market capitalism, and quoted Josef Ackermann, chief
executive of Deutsche Bank, as saying "I no longer believe in the market's self-healing power."[20] Shortly
afterward economist Robert Shiller began advocating robust government intervention to tackle the
financial crisis, specifically citing Keynes.[21][22] Macro economist James K. Galbraith used the 25th Annual
Milton Friedman Distinguished Lecture to launch a sweeping attack against the consensus for monetarist
economics and argued that Keynesian economics were far more relevant for tackling the emerging crises.
[23]
A series of major bailouts followed, starting on September 7 with the announcement that the U.S.
government was to nationalize the two firms which oversaw most of the U.S. mortgage market—Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac. In October, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer referred to Keynes as he
announced plans for substantial fiscal stimuli to head off the worst effects of recession, in accordance with
Keynesian economic thought.[24] Similar policies have been announced in other European countries, by the
U.S., and by China. [25] This is in stark contrast to the scope given to Indonesia during its financial crisis of
1997, when the IMF forced it to close 16 banks simultaneously, prompting a bank run.[26]
Prominent Keynesian economists included Paul Krugman, Robert Reich and Joseph Stiglitz[citation needed] . Greg
Mankiw argued that Keynes was the economist who provided the greatest single insight into the crisis,[27]
but later encouraged skepticism about a fiscal stimulus.[28]
The works on Keynes of Hyman Minsky,[29] Robert Skidelsky,[30] and Donald Markwell[31] were widely cited.
Much discussion reflected Keynes's advocacy of international coordination of fiscal or monetary stimulus,
and of international economic institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which
he had helped to create at Bretton Woods in 1944, and which many argued should be reformed at a "new
Bretton Woods".[32] This was evident at the G20 and APEC meetings in Washington, D.C., and Lima, Peru, in
November 2008, and in coordinated reductions of interest rates by many countries in November and
December 2008. IMF and United Nations economists and political leaders such as British Prime Minister
Gordon Brown advocated a coordinated international approach to fiscal stimulus.[33] The President of the
World Bank, Robert Zoellick, advocated that all developed country pledge 0.7 percent of its stimulus
package to a vulnerability fund for assisting developing countries.[34] It was argued (e.g. by Donald
Markwell) that the absence of an international approach in the spirit of Keynes, or its failure, risked the
economic causes of international political conflict which Keynes had identified (e.g. in the 1930s) coming
into play again.[35] [8]
In a speech on January 8, 2009, President Barack Obama unveiled a plan for extensive domestic spending
to combat recession, further reflecting Keynesian thinking. The plan was signed by the President on
February 17, 2009. There had been extensive debate in Congress concerning the necessity, adequacy, and
likely effects of the package, which saw it being cut from $819 to $787 billion during its passage through
the Senate.[36][37]
Wikinews has related news: Asian countries call for global currency
Critics on the left question whether government policy has become sufficiently Keynesian – in their view
Obama's economic team is disappointingly centrist, with its inclusion of economists who have previously
been associated with support for the neoliberal or pro free market agenda, such as Jason Furman and Larry
Summers.[38][39]
A renewed interest in Keynesian ideas was not limited to western countries. In a speech delivered in March
2009 entitled Reform the International Monetary System, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's
Bank of China revived Keynes's idea of a centrally managed global reserve currency. Dr Zhou argued that
it was unfortunate that Keynes's Bancor proposal was not accepted at Bretton Woods in the 1940s. He
argued that national currencies were unsuitable for use as global reserve currencies as a result of the
Triffin dilemma - the difficulty faced by reserve currency issuers in trying to simultaneously achieve their
domestic monetary policy goals and meet other countries' demand for reserve currency. Dr Zhou proposed
a gradual move towards adopting IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) as a centrally managed global
reserve currency.[40][41]
[edit] Effectiveness
China was one of the first nations to launch a substantial fiscal stimulus package , estimated at $586
billion spread over two years [42] , and in February 2009 the Financial Times reported that both government
officials and private investors were seeing signs of recovery, such as rises in commodity prices, a 13% rise
in the Chinese stock market over a period of 10 days, and a big increase in lending—reflecting the
government's success in using state owned banks to inject liquidity into the real economy [43].
As late as April, central bankers and finance ministers remained cautious about the overall global
economy, but in May 2009 the Financial Times was able to report that according to a package of leading
indicators there are signs that recovery is now imminent in Europe to, after a trough in March. The US was
one of the last major economies to implement a major stimulus plan, and the slowdown there looks set to
continue for at least a few more months [44]. There has also been a rise in business and consumer
confidence across most of Europe, especially in the emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia and India.
[45]
In June, OECD reported improvements to the global economic outlook, with overall growth now forecast
for 2010 instead of a small contraction. OECD specifically credited stimulus plans, which they warned
should not be rolled back too swiftly.[46] The IMF also reported a better than expected global economic
outlook in July, though warning the recovery is likely to be slow. Again they credited the "unprecedented"
global policy response and echoing the OECD in urging leaders to avoid complacency and not to unwind
recession fighting fiscal and monetary policy too soon. [47] [48]
[edit] Criticism
Keynesian ideas have also attracted considerable criticism. While there has been broad consensus among
international leaders concerning the need for co-ordinated stimulus, the German administration initially
stood out in their reluctance to wholeheartedly embrace Keynesian policy.[49]
Critics focus on arguing that Keynesian policy will be counter-productive – reasons given include assertions
that it will be inflationary, create more income disparity and cause consumers to rein in their spending
even more as they anticipate future tax rises.[50][51][52] In 2009 more than 300 professional economists, led
by three Nobel Laureates in economics - James M. Buchanan, Edward Prescott and Vernon Smith, signed a
statement against more government spending arguing that "Lower tax rates and a reduction in the burden
of government are the best ways of using fiscal policy to boost growth."[53] Robert Barro, an economics
professor at Harvard University, has argued that stimulus spending may be unwise, claiming one of the
factors the US stimulus package depends on for its effectiveness, the multiplier effect is in practice close
to zero - not 1.5 as he says the Obama team were assuming- which means the extra employment
generated by the stimulus will be cancelled out by less output and investment in the private sector. [54][55]
Edward Prescott [56] and fellow economist Eugene Fama [57] have also argued that the stimulus plans are
unlikely to have a net positive effect on employment, and may even harm it.
There have also been arguments that the late 2000s crisis was caused not by excessively free markets but
by the remnants of Keynesian policy.[58] Luigi Zingales of University of Chicago argues that "Keynesianism
is just a convenient ideology to hide corruption and political patronage".[59] In February 2009, Alan
Reynolds, senior fellow at the Cato Insitute, acknowledged the resurgence , then proceeded to argue that
evidence from various studies suggest Keynesian remedies will be ineffective and that Keynesian
advocates appear to be driven by blind faith. [60] Austrian school economic historian Thomas Woods
published a book, Meltdown, in 2009 which places the blame for the crises on government intervention,
and blames the Federal Reserve as the primary culprit behind the financial calamity.[61]
[edit] The Keynesian resurgence in academia
With a few notable exceptions (such as Robert Shiller, James Galbraith and Paul Krugman among others),
the Keynesian resurgence has been largely driven by policy makers rather than academic economists.
Until very recently mainstream economists have not generally favoured robust counter-cyclical fiscal
policies. While the school of thought known as New Keynesian economics has dominated the teaching of
macroeconomics at universities, New Keynesians largely believed that monetary policy was enough to
stabilize the economy, and largely rejected interventionist fiscal policy (as advocated by Keynes) as
unnecessary. Some economists (primarily post-Keynesians) have accused the New Keynesian system of
being so integrated with pro-free market neo-classical influences that the label 'Keynesian' may be
considered a misnomer. [62]
Yet there has been a shift in thinking amongst many mainstream economists, paralleling the resurgence of
Keynesianism among policy makers. The New York Times reported that in the 2008 annual meeting of the
American Economic Association mainstream economists remained hostile or at least sceptical about the
government’s role in enhancing the market sector or mitigating recession with fiscal stimulus - but in the
2009 meeting virtually everyone voiced their support for such measures.[63] However a substantial shift in
opinion is less obvious in the academic literature. Speaking in March 2009, Galbraith has stated that he
has not detected any changes among academic economists, nor a re-examination of orthodox opinion in
the journals. [64]
The 2008 financial crisis has led some in the economic profession to pay greater attention to Keynes’s
original theories. In February 2009, Robert Shiller and George Akerlof argued in their book Animal Spirits
that the current US stimulus package was too small, as it does not take into account loss of confidence or
do enough to restore the availability of credit. In a September 2009 article for the New York Times, on the
lessons economists should learn from the crisis, Paul Krugman urged economists to move away from
neoclassical models and employ Keynesian analysis: [65]
So here's what I think economists have to do. First, they have to face up to the inconvenient reality that financial markets
“ fall far short of perfection, that they are subject to extraordinary delusions and the madness of crowds. Second, they have
to admit ... that Keynesian economics remains the best framework we have for making sense of recessions and
depressions. Third, they'll have to do their best to incorporate the realities of finance into macroeconomics. ”
[edit] See also
• Financial crisis of 2007–2009
• Late-2000s recession
• Keynesian economics
• Neo-Keynesian economics
• New Keynesian economics
• Post-Keynesian economics
• Post-capitalism
• Robert Skidelsky (2009). Keynes: The Return of the Master. Allen Lane. ISBN 184614258X.
[hide]
v•d•e
Financial crisis of 2007–2009
Late 2000s recession · 2008 G-20 Washington summit · APEC Peru 2008 · 2009 G-20 London summit · 2009 G-20 Pittsburgh
summit
United States housing market correction · World food price crisis · Energy crisis (Central Asia) ·
Subprime mortgage crisis (timeline, List of writedowns) · Automotive industry crisis · Future of
Specific issues
newspapers · List of entities involved (Bankrupt or acquired banks, Bankrupt retailers) · Effects
upon museums · Banking revelations in Ireland · Resurgence of Keynesianism
Belgium · Iceland · Ireland · Latvia · Russia · Spain · Ukraine · (Europe · Africa · Americas · Asia ·
By country (or region)
Australasia)
Legislation and policy responses
Banking (Special Provisions) Act 2008 · Commercial Paper Funding Facility · Emergency Economic
Stabilization Act of 2008 · Troubled Assets Relief Program · Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan
Banking and finance
Facility · Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program · 2008 United Kingdom bank rescue package ·
stability and reform
2008 East Asian meetings · Anglo Irish Bank Corporation Bill 2009 · 2009 G-20 London summit ·
Irish emergency budget, 2009 · National Asset Management Agency
National fiscal policy response to the late 2000s recession · Housing and Economic Recovery Act of
Stimulus and recovery 2008 · Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 · 2008 Chinese economic stimulus plan · 2008 European
Union stimulus plan · American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 · Green New Deal
New Century Financial Corporation · Woolworths · American Freedom Mortgage · American Home
Mortgage · Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC · Charter Communications · Lehman
Companies in bankruptcy, Brothers (bankruptcy) · Linens 'n Things · Mervyns · NetBank · Terra Securities (scandal) · Sentinel
administration, Management Group · Washington Mutual · Icesave · Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander · Yamato
or other insolvency Life · Circuit City · Allco Finance Group · Waterford Wedgwood · Saab Automobile · BearingPoint ·
proceedings; or in failure Tweeter · Babcock & Brown · Silicon Graphics · Conquest Vacations · General Growth Properties ·
Chrysler (bankruptcy) · Thornburg Mortgage · Great Southern Group · General
Motors (bankruptcy) · Eddie Bauer · Nortel · BI-LO (United States)
Northern Rock (nationalisation) · Bear Stearns · IndyMac Federal Bank · Fannie Mae (takeover) ·
Freddie Mac (takeover) · AIG · Bradford & Bingley · Fortis · Glitnir · Hypo Real Estate · Dexia · CL
Government bailouts
Financial · Landsbanki · Kaupthing · Straumur · ING Group · Citigroup · General Motors · Chrysler ·
and takeovers
Bank of America · Anglo Irish Bank (nationalisation) · Parex Bank · Bank of Antigua · ACC Capital
Holdings (reorganization) · U.S. Central Credit Union · Bank of Ireland · Allied Irish Bank
Company acquisitions Ameriquest Mortgage · Countrywide Financial · Bear Stearns · Alliance & Leicester · Merrill
Lynch · Washington Mutual · Derbyshire Building Society · Cheshire Building Society · HBOS ·
Wachovia · Sovereign Bank · Barnsley Building Society · Scarborough Building Society · National
City Corp. · Dunfermline Building Society
Other topics
Stanford Financial Group (Allen Stanford) · Fairfield Greenwich Group · UBS AG · Sean FitzPatrick
Alleged frauds
(Anglo Irish Bank) · Kazutsugi Nami (Enten controversy) · Nicholas Cosmo · Arthur Nadel · Paul
and fraudsters
Greenwood · Stephen Walsh · Laura Pendergest-Holt · Angelo Mozilo · Barry Tannenbaum
Proven or admitted Bernard Madoff (Ponzi scheme)(Frank DiPascali) · Satyam Computer Services (accounting
frauds and fraudsters scandal) (Ramalinga Raju) · Marc Stuart Dreier · Norman Hsu · Joseph S. Forte · Du Jun
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation · Federal Reserve System · Federal Housing Administration ·
Federal Housing Finance Agency · Federal Housing Finance Board · Government National
Related entities
Mortgage Association · Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight · Office of Financial
Stability · UK Financial Investments Limited · Federal Home Loan Banks
Securities involved Auction rate securities · Collateralized debt obligations · Collateralized mortgage obligations · Credit
and financial markets default swaps · Mortgage-backed securities · Secondary mortgage market
Bailout · Bank run · Credit crunch · Economic bubble · Error account · Financial contagion ·
Related topics Financial crisis · Interbank lending market · Liquidity crisis · Ponzi scheme · Prison consultant · Tea
Party protests
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Categories: Late 2000s global financial crisis | 2000s economic history | Keynesian economics
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