ASSIGNMENT

On

ASSESSMENT QUESTION + CLASS ACTIVITY

Submitted To:

SIR RASHID AFTAB

Submitted By:

RAB NAWAZ ( CMS 22068, SAP 7435 )

Course title:

MS (A&F)

Subject:

Public Sector Management

Dated: 23th MAR, 2020.

 Assessment Questions :

Question# 1:-
How discount factors play a critical role in cost benefit analysis?

Most public projects and programs take place over time, and how the analyst treats this
time element is critical. In order to keep things simple, think of time being divided into
years and of future benefits and costs accruing in specific years.

Question# 2
In which way, multi-objective model can help for decision making in public sector?

minimizing cost while maximizing comfort while buying a car, and maximizing
performance whilst minimizing fuel consumption and emission of pollutants of a vehicle
are examples of multi-objective optimization problems involving two and
three objectives, respectively.
One limitation of CBA is that it accounts for only one objective, usually an aggregate of
all accrued benefits in Rs terms. For that reason, the decision maker might want to either
replace or supplement it with a newer technique that emphasizes multiple objectives as in
a multiobjective model. Formally stated, a multiobjective model is a decision making
technique useful in situations in which there are moral goals or when one or two goals
cannot be quantified . The model decomposes the solution analysis into three steps:
Select Evaluation criteria
Decide on the relative importance of each criterion selected
Assess each alternative in terms of how well it achieves the criteria.

Question# 3:-

What are the basic steps of system analysis and what are the main objectives of simulation?
Systems analysis is more a mosaic than a specific analytical technique and what makes
up this mosaic? Bits and pieces from variety of disciplines– engineering, sociology,
biology, philosophy, psychology, economics and computer science. Very broadly the
systems analysis approach forces us to look at problems as systems—that is, assemblies
of interdependent components.

Four basic steps of Systems Analysis

Problem formulation
Modeling
Analysis and optimization
Implementation

Problem formulation
The most difficult step in analyzing a system, sometimes requiring three-fourths of the
total effort. This step includes the detailed description of the task and identification of
important variables and their relationships.
In the systems approach, one begins by deciding whether the prime objective is better
service, lower cost, less pollution, or something else. One must also decide what data are
necessary.

Modeling

The scene changes in this step: one goes from the real world of the problem to the
abstract world of the modeler. A model is a simpler representation of the real world
problem: it is supposed to help you. Models can be physical reconstructions of the real
thing

Analysis and optimization

In this step an analyst studies the model to find the best strategy for resolving the given
problem. Options include computer simulation and sensitivity analysis.
Implementation

The last step implementation refers to the procedure by which the results determined
from the model are translated as a set of actions to the real world. The four steps
however, seldom occur in perfect sequence; indeed the systems approach is highly
iterative. As such it might easily move through a sequence of steps such as the following:
formulating the problem, selecting objectives, designing alternatives, collecting data,
building models, weighting cost against effectiveness, testing for sensitivity, questioning
assumptions, reexamining objectives, looking at new alternative, reformulating the
problem, selecting different or modified objectives and so on.

Simulation:
Simulation is the imitation or representation of one act or system by another. Healthcare
simulations can be said to have four main purposes – education, assessment, research,
and health system integration in facilitating patient safety.
Steps:

Write a Problem Statement: (to solve the right problem).

Select Input Variables and Entities (Use the problem statement to create entities and
variables for the simulation).
Make Constraints on Decision Variables (assign values and constraints to the variables
that can be controlled).
Determine Output Variables: (Establish what variables you want the simulation to output.
During this step, consider your problem statement).
Collect Data from Real-Life System (Gather information from the system to input into
the simulation.)
Model Development (Develop a logical diagram/flowchart to visually see the progression
of the simulation).
Select Simulation Software (Choose simulation software to run your model)
Model Verification (Run the simulation and compare the results to the actual system)
 Model Experimentation & Optimization: (Test the simulation to find the best possible
solution to the problem).
Implementation of Simulation Results: Apply the results to the real-world system after
determining the best solution based on the data input. Be prepared to see changes in the
system function.

Question# 4
Which Strategy is more reliable to identify best alternative option in public sector in
context of gain or loss factor?

Best strategy is Group decision making so common in public administration, effective

managers must be highly skilled in influencing the group process. This section considers
strengths and weaknesses of groups as decision makers, circumstances in which a group
decision-making process should be used, and techniques to help groups arrive at better
decisions.

Groups have an advantage over individuals because they bring together a broader
perspective for defining the problem and diagnosing the underlying causes and effects.
Groups can stimulate each other to try new ways of approaching the problem and
compensate for the weakness in one another’s thinking style.
Groups offer more knowledge and information than individuals can.
The diversity of experience and thinking styles present in a group can lead to more
innovative solutions than and expert could produce working alone.
Group decision is easier to implement because more people feel they had a say in it, and
they understand the problem more thoroughly.
Model Experimentation & Optimization: (Test the simulation to find the best possible
solution to the problem).
Implementation of Simulation Results: Apply the results to the real-world system after
determining the best solution based on the data input. Be prepared to see changes in the
system function.
Question#5 :-
After cost benefit analysis, how goals can effectively translated into measurable indicators?

A cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is the process used to measure the benefits of a decision or

taking action minus the costs associated with taking that action. A CBA can also include
intangible benefits and costs or effects from a decision such as employee morale and
customer satisfaction Program goals tend to be ambiguous, hazy. Consider this one for an
urban transportation program: to provide access to community services, facilities, and
employment in a, safe quick, comfortable, and convenient manner for all segments of the
community without causing harmful side effects.

How would one translate those goals into measurable indicators of achievement?

Hatry winnie and fisk suggest the following six criteria along with examples of what
might be measured:

Convenience: by measuring the percentage of residents bit within x distance of public

transit service and citizen perception of travel convenience.
Time: by measuring time required to travel between key origin and destination points and
duration of delays.
Comfort: By measuring bumpiness of roads and citizens perception of travel comfort.
Safety: by measuring transportation related deaths, injuries, and incidents of property
damage the number of transportation crime incidents.
Cost: by measuring cost per trip to users and program costs to city.
Environmental Quality: by measuring noise level along transportation corridors and air
pollution attributable to transportation sources.
 CLASS ACTIVITY

In the context of article, critically analyze the four important goals of

public policy to counter covid -19

To tackle the Covid-19 crisis, like all countries, Pakistan will have to generate public policy that
balances its efforts, and limited resources across four policy outcomes:
First, to limit the spread of the disease and minimize mortality.
o The government has made some important and difficult decisions that have not received
the support they merit. Shuttling Pakistani students and pilgrims from virus-affected areas
in Iran and China was the unpopular but correct decision. The government needs to be
supported in resisting cheap television ratings driven demands for free movement into the
country. In the days to come, the NSC decisions to limit public gatherings, including
school and wedding hall closures, will come under immense public pressure. Not only
must the government be supported in upholding these measures, it must be pressured to
do more to enforce social distancing. The only means of achieving the first policy goal –
limiting infections and minimizing Covid-19 mortality – is social distancing.
Second, to protect the overarching capacity of the public health system and enable it to cater to
the already under-serviced demand for primary, secondary and tertiary health.
o To keep our hospitals and clinics (both public and private) up and running, so that, for
example, pregnant mothers can deliver babies safely, gunshot wounds can be tended to
safely, extreme food poisoning and victims of car accidents can be catered to properly,
and cancer patients can be offered chemotherapy or surgery safely. In short, the public
health system needs capacity to deal with the complexity of all the regular challenges it
faces, as the number of infections of Covid-19 escalate dramatically. This requires, above
all, capacity, which requires two things: money, and preparation. The cabinet must not
only rescind its rejection of Dr Mirza’s proposal for Rs760 million in emergency medical
equipment, but must acknowledge its mistake, and must approve a much larger package
to immediately enhance the number of functional ventilators across all cities and towns in
 the country. Ventilators require electricity, and technicians and maintenance staff – an
entire array of expenditure that must be designed and approved forthwith
Third, to prepare for the economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis on individuals, families and
communities, and on the wider macroeconomic situation at large.
o The third policy goal is to prepare for the economic shock of Covid-19. The depth of the
economic crisis will exceed what happened globally in 2008-2009. There are FIVE
immediate decisions the government must make.
 First, it must not reduce gasoline prices, but instead use lower oil prices to pad its
revenue (this will not play well on social media or television, but it is necessary to
finance the remaining four decisions).
 Second, it must double the size of BISP payments.
 Third, it must revise monetary policy, with the specific intent of increasing small
and medium sized business’ access to credit.
 Fourth, it must announce and enforce a no-layoffs policy for all businesses.
 Finally, it must identify the worst hit sectors (such as travel and tourism) and
design large incentives that mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis – one that is
expected to have at least two quarters’ worth of severe impact.
And fourth, to find ways to reach a scientific solution to the Covid-19 crisis, including the search
for R&D that delivers a vaccine and/or drugs to deal with Covid-19.
o The final policy goal of finding a vaccine is as important as any of the other three. The
Sindh government’s announcement of a prize for successful R&D in this regard was
mocked by some. But hopefully Pakistan’s scientists, as besieged as they are by the
stupidity, bigotry and short-sightedness that defines the public discourse, spend less time
on Twitter and more in their labs. The federal government must work with the Higher
Education Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology to design incentives
for researchers. Balancing and prioritizing between these four policy goals will be the
most difficult test of Prime Minister Khan’s leadership. There are two cross cutting secret
weapons he must now deploy – both being quite exclusive (one to him, the other to
Pakistan).The first secret weapon is PM Khan’s ability to dominate the public discourse.
He must do so by jumping headlong into the Covid-19 conversation, and engaging the
challenge in a visible and aggressive way as only he knows how. A massive public
communications campaign is already three weeks overdue. He must begin now. From
personal hygiene, to social distancing, to managing pressure on hospitals and clinics.
Pakistan needs visible, aggressive leadership of the kind PM Khan excels at. It must be
deployed now. The second secret weapon is Pakistan’s geographic and strategic intimacy
with China. China has successfully (and miraculously) fought off the first wave of Covid-
19.