Unforeseen Developments - Safeguards PDF
Unforeseen Developments - Safeguards PDF
Sheela Rai*
The doctrine of precedent is getting established in WTO and seems to be there to stay however
much it is argued otherwise. Neglect of this fact means that we are overlooking some of the
problematic developments in WTO jurisprudence. This is quite evident from the integration of the
requirement of unforeseen developments for a WTO consistent safeguard measure. While the
interpretation given by the Appellate Body in two recent cases might be correct according to the
rules of interpretation it does not address the realities of the negotiation process where tariff cuts
are made according to formulae accepted by a process of bargaining. Are we seeing the victory
of formalism in international jurisprudence in WTO matters?
*West Bengal National University of Juridical Sciences, Kolkata. Email: [email protected]
I
Introduction
Every state has the sovereign right to regulate its economy including trade and commerce
within its territory and by its subjects. However, when the countries enter into bilateral or
multilateral trade agreements they undertake to refrain from exercising this sovereign
power in certain aspects. Under the GATT and now the WTO the countries undertook
certain commitments. The commitments were broadly towards gradual liberalization of
trade through successive rounds of negotiations. The countries undertook to eliminate
quantitative restrictions and committed themselves to a tariff binding on the products.
These tariff bindings were to be gradually lowered with the progress in liberalization of
trade.
However, this process of liberalization has not been a smooth one either at the
multilateral level or at the domestic level. There has been a continuous struggle between
the forces of liberalization and forces of protection. This tussle is reflected in the GATT
where commitments are subject to number of exceptions of various kinds. Some of these
exceptions have been justified on the ground that they are there to safeguard the domestic
industry against unfair trade practices. These are subsidies and dumping against which
countervailing duties and antidumping measures are imposed. However, the domestic
industry has been ensured of protection even in cases when there is no such justification.
This was done by Article XIX of the GATT 1947 which recognised imposition of
safeguard measures in the form of quantitative restrictions and tariff increases (beyond
the bound rate) if the domestic industry was suffering from serious injury or there was
threat of serious injury due to sudden increase in imports under unforeseen
circumstances.
However, these safeguard measures had to be imposed on MFN basis. 1 The requirement
of imposition of safeguard measures on MFN basis, of proving serious injury or threat of
serious injury made the imposition of safeguard measures difficult. Thus the developed
countries who were the major users of safeguard measures before the WTO resorted to
However, as the data below shows developing countries are adopting the trade strategies
of the developed countries and are increasingly using the these measures to protect their
markets against imports.
During the period January 1, 1995 to June 30, 2005 a total of 139 investigations were
initiated and a total of 68 safeguard measures were imposed. Those totals are relatively
low compared to the 2743 antidumping initiations and 1729 antidumping measures and
176 countervailing duty initiations and 108 countervailing duty measures notified during
the same period. The country notifying the largest number of initiations since 1995 was
India with 15 initiations, Chili, Jordan and the United States followed with 10 initiations
each. Concerning application of new final safeguard measures, since 1995, India
reported the largest number(8), followed by Chili and the United States (six measures
each), followed by Czech Republic and the Philippines (five measures each).
Since safeguard measures did not have any justification in terms of unfair trade etc. as
antidumping measures have therefore GATT tries to make their use difficult. Therefore
the requirement that they can be imposed only in cases of serious injury and when
increase in imports is due to unforeseen circumstances. Laws relating to safeguard
measures are justified on the ground that they give domestic industry time to reallocate its
resources or to restore its competitiveness. Another justification that is given is that it
emboldens the countries to liberalise because they are assured of the use of safeguard
measures in case the domestic industry is in crisis and needs protection. Advocates of
safeguard measures under the GATS are putting forward this argument.
Article XIX of the GATT 1994 and the Agreement on the Safeguards together provide
rules to be followed if a country decides to take safeguard measures. The general rule
followed in the interpretation of the GATT agreements is that if provisions in the specific
agreements conflict with the general provisions of GATT 1994 then provisions of
specific agreements would prevail over the provisions of the GATT 1994. However, as
far as possible the panel and the Appellate Body would try to read both the provisions in
a harmonious way. 3
This paper analyses the rules relating to emergency safeguard measures under the WTO
and the interpretation of those rules by the Panel and the Appellate Body.
A situation of conflict between Article XIX of GATT 1994 and the Agreement on
Safeguards arose as the two have slightly different provisions specifying circumstances
for the imposition of safeguard measures.
Article XIX of the GATT authorizes the use of Emergency safeguard measures if
(i) as a result of unforeseen developments and of the effect of the obligations
incurred by a contracting party under this Agreement including tariff concessions,
(ii) any product is being imported into the territory of that contracting party in
such increased quantities and under such conditions
(iii) as to cause or threaten serious injury to domestic producers in that territory of
like or directly competitive products.
Article 2.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards however, does not mention the first of the
above three conditions. It says,
A Member may apply a safeguard measure to a product only if that Member has
determined, pursuant to the provisions set out below, that such product is being
imported into its territory in such increased quantities absolute or relative to
domestic production, and under such conditions as to cause or threaten to cause
serious injury to the domestic industry that produces like or directly competitive
products.
It became a moot issue in some of the cases before the Dispute Settlement Body whether
the fact that the “unforeseeable circumstances” is not used in the Agreement on the
Safeguards means that the Members did not want it to be a requirement for the imposition
of safeguards measures any more.
However, the Appellate Body has held that the WTO Agreement is a single undertaking
and unless there is conflict between the provisions of GATT 1994 and specific
Agreements the whole should be interpreted harmoniously. The Appellate Body held that
there is nothing in Article 1 or 11.1 of the Agreement on Safeguards that suggest an
intention by Uruguay Round negotiators to subsume the requirements of Article XIX of
the GATT within Agreement on Safeguards and thus to render those requirements no
longer applicable. Appellate Body noted that Article 1 states that the purpose of the
Agreement on Safeguards is to establish “rules for the application of safeguard measures
which shall be understood to mean those measures provided for in Article XIX of GATT
On the basis of the above the Appellate Body concluded that unforeseen developments
meant unexpected developments, developments which a Member did not expect when it
undertook the tariff reduction obligation. Following this interpretation in the case of
Argentina –Definitive Safeguard Measures on Imports of Preserved Peaches 8 the panel
disagreed with Argentina’s argument that increase in world stock of peaches and trend in
prices could not be foreseen by its negotiators during the Uruguay Round. In this case
Argentina argued that three factors constituted unforeseen developments: (a) increased
production as a result of an exceptional Greek harvest; (b) substantial increase in world
stocks; and (c) a downward price trend. Panel noted that the production in 1999/2000
(investigation period) was less than one percent higher compared with the production in
1992/93 when Uruguay Round negotiations were going on. Argentina stated that the
negotiators could not foresee that exceptional production in 1992/93 would become a
rule. Panel asked Argentina why its negotiators did not expect these fluctuations in
future. Moreover Panel noted that there was no finding in the domestic authority’s report
that an exception had become a rule.
The requirement of that safeguard measures should be imposed only if there are
“unforeseen developments” makes the imposition of safeguard measures difficult. The
stand taken by the Panel and the Appellate Body had generally been that safeguard
measures are intended to be used in rare and unexpected cases.
In our view the text of Article XIX:1(a) of the GATT 1994 read in its ordinary meaning
and in its context, demonstrates that safeguard measures were intended by the drafters of
the GATT to be matters out of ordinary, to be matters of urgency, to be in short
emergency actions. And such emergency actions are to be invoked, only in situations
when, as a result of obligations incurred under the GATT 1994, a Member finds itself
confronted with developments it had not “foreseen” or “expected” when it incurred that
obligation. The remedy that Article XIX:1(a) allows in this situation is temporarily to
“suspend the obligation in whole or in part or to withdraw or modify the concession.”
Thus Article XIX is clearly, and in every way, an extraordinary remedy. 9
The conditions to be fulfilled for a valid imposition of safeguard measure under Article
XIX read with the Safeguard Agreement are that the product in respect of which
safeguard measure is being imposed:
(1) is being imported into its territory in such increased quantities, absolute or relative
to domestic production,
(2) and under such conditions as to cause or threaten to cause
(3) serious injury to the domestic industry that produces like or directly competitive
products.
Rules regarding second and third conditions are given in paragraphs (a) and (b) of Article
4.2. In the case of ‘US-Definitive Safeguard Measures on Imports of Circular Welded
Carbon Quality Line Pipe from Korea’ 23 the Appellate Body reversed the Panel’s finding
that there is a requirement for a discreet finding of serious injury or threat of serious
injury. Appellate Body held that there is nothing in Article 2.1 which warrants finding
either of serious injury or threat of serious injury but not both. According to the Appellate
Body the clause would rather mean either one or the other or both in combination. With
regard to the Panel reasoning that there is a necessity of discreet finding because Article
5.2(b) excludes quota modulation in case of threat of serious injury, the Appellate Body
held that although it is an exception which must be respected but it would not be proper
to generalize from such a limited exception to a general rule. Moreover in this case the
exception did not apply because safeguard measures had been issued by hiking the tariff.
In the case of ‘Argentina-Safeguard on Footwear’ the Appellate Body upheld the Panel’s
conclusion that the Investigating Authority should at a minimum evaluate all the factors
listed in Article 4.2 and any other relevant factor in addition to the listed factors.
However, the Appellate body added that since serious injury means significant overall
impairment of domestic industry within the meaning of Article 4.1(a) therefore although
Article 4.2 requires that all relevant factors including those listed in Article 4.2 must be
evaluated the provision does not specify what that evaluation must demonstrate. An
evaluation of each listed factor need not necessarily show that each such factor is
declining. ‘In one case for example, there may be significant declines in sales,
employment and productivity that will show “significant overall impairment” in the
position of the industry, and therefore will justify a finding of serious injury. In another
case, a certain factor may not be declining, but the overall picture may nevertheless
demonstrate significant overall impairment” of the industry.’ 25
In the case of ‘US-Definitive Safeguard Measures on Imports of Wheat Gluten from the
European Communities’ 26 the Appellate Body held that the obligation of the
Investigating Authority to examine all relevant factors goes beyond examining the
evidences submitted by the interested parties. It has the obligation to conduct an
investigation therefore according to the Appellate Body if the Investigating Authority
does not have sufficient information before them to evaluate the possible relevance of
such an “other factor” they must investigate fully that “other factor” so that they can fulfil
their obligations of evaluation under Article 4.2(a). But the Appellate Body rejected the
European Communities argument that the competent authorities have an open ended and
unlimited duty to investigate all available facts that might possibly be relevant. In this
case, the Appellate body accepted the Panel decision in the facts of the case that there
was no evidence to suggest that protein content in wheat was to such an extent in the
1996 and 1997 when the surge in imports occurred that it was a relevant factor to be
investigated by the competent authorities.
The Appellate Body in the ‘US-Safeguard Measures on Wheat Gluten’ held that
existence of causal link does not mean that increased imports are the sole cause of injury.
According to the Appellate Body the language of Article 4.2(b) suggests that the causal
link between the increased imports and serious injury may exist, even though other
factors are also contributing “at the same time” to the situation of domestic industry.
In the facts of the case the Appellate Body found that the Unites States acted
inconsistently with its obligations under Article 4.2 of the Agreement as the USITC did
not adequately evaluate whether increase in average capacity were at the same time
causing injury to the domestic industry alongwith the increased imports. Appellate Body
held that under Article 4.2(b) of the Agreement it is essential for the competent
authorities to examine whether factors other than increased imports are simultaneously
causing injury. If the competent authorities do not conduct this examination they cannot
ensure that injury caused by other factors is not attributed to increased imports. In this
case the USITC had not demonstrated adequately as required by Article 4.2 (b) that any
injury caused to the domestic industry by increase in average capacity was not
“attributed” to increased imports and, in consequence, the USITC could not establish the
existence of “causal link” Article 4.2 (b) required between the increased imports and
serious injury. Appellate Body also found that the USITC violated Article 2.1 and 4.2 by
excluding imports from Canada without satisfying whether imports from other sources
excluding Canada satisfied the requirements of Article 2.1 and 4.2 of the Safeguards
Agreement.
Domestic Industry
Serious injury or threat of serious injury should be caused to the domestic industry which
means the producers as a whole of the like or directly competitive products operating
within the territory of a Member or those whose collective output of the like or directly
competitive products constitutes a major proportion of the total domestic production of
those products. In the case of ‘United States-Safeguard Measures on Imports of Fresh,
Chilled or Frozen Lamb Meat from New Zealand and Australia’ 27 the Panel and the
Appellate Body rejected the US claim that producers of input products might also be
included within the term domestic industry. In this case the Unites States had included
the growers and feeders of live lambs as well as packers and breakers of lamb meat
within the term domestic industry. Appellate Body held that domestic industry means
producers of like or directly competitive products growers and feeders of live lamb and
III
Remedies Available to Importing Country
Article XIX provides that the contracting parties would be free to suspend the obligation
in whole or in part or to withdraw or modify the concession.
Article 5 of the Agreement explains the modalities for the application of safeguard
measure. Safeguard measures should be applied only to the extent necessary to prevent or
remedy serious injury and to facilitate adjustment.
If a quantitative restriction is used, such a measure should not reduce the quantity of
imports below the level of a recent period which shall be the average of imports in the
last three representative years for which statistics are available, unless a clear justification
is given that a different level is necessary to prevent or remedy serious injury. Para 2 of
Article 5 provides how quota has to allocated to different countries in case the Member
decides to allocate quotas among the supplying countries. The justification referred to in
Article 5.1 is to be given only in case quantitative restriction is used not if quantitative
restriction is not used. In the case of ‘Korea-Safeguard Measures on Dairy Products’ the
Appellate Body reversed the Panel’s finding that Article 5.1 requires a Member to
explain at the time it makes its recommendations and determinations concerning the
application of a safeguard measure, that its measure is necessary to remedy serious injury
and to facilitate adjustment, even where the particular safeguard measure applied is not a
quantitative restriction which reduces the quantity of imports below the average of
imports in the last three representative years.
IV
Notification and Surveillance 28
Articles 12 and 13 provide for notification, consultation and surveillance.
Members have an obligation to send some notifications to the Committee on Safeguards.
Some of these notifications are of a general nature, while others relate to specific
safeguard or grey-area measures. The general obligations on notifications are the
following:
(i) A Member has to notify its laws, regulations and administrative procedures
regarding safeguard measures. Whenever any modification is made in them, such
modification also has to be notified.
The obligation regarding notification in respect of specific safeguard measures are the
following:
The notification on injury must contain evidence of serious injury and the precise nature
of the product involved. The notification on the application of a safeguard measure must
contain, in addition, the proposed measure, the proposed date of introduction, the
expected duration and a timetable for a progressive liberalization. The notification on the
extension of a measure must also contain evidence that the domestic industry is adjusting.
The Dispute Settlement Body while interpreting the phrase ‘all pertinent information’
held that all items specified in Article 12.2 as well as the address of injury factors listed
in Article 4.2(a) need to be included in the notification.
So far as the expression ‘shall immediately notify’ in Article 12.1, the Panel on ‘Korea-
Dairy’ held that, there is a need under the Agreement to balance the requirement for some
minimum level of information in a notification against the requirement for immediate
notification. The more detail that is required, the less ‘instantly’ will members be able to
send notifications.. There is no basis in the wording of Article 12.1 to interpret the term
‘immediately’ to mean ‘as soon as practicably possible’.
In the case of ‘US-Safeguard Measures on Wheat Gluten’ the Panel reiterated the
propositions as held in ‘Korea- Safeguard Measures on Dairy Products’, that member has
to notify immediately its decisions or findings. Observance of this requirement is all the
more important considering the fact that a safeguard measure is imposed on imports of a
Article 12.2 of the Safeguard Agreement lists the types of information, which a member
proposing to apply or extending a safeguard measure has to furnish to the Committee on
Safeguards. Such information inter alia, should include:
(i) evidence of serious injury or threat thereof caused by increased imports;
(ii) precise description of the product involved and the proposed measure;
(iii) proposed date of introduction; and
(iv) expected duration and time table for progressive liberalization. In the case of
an extension of a measure, evidence that the industry concerned is adjusting
shall also be provided. The Council for Goods or the Committee on
Safeguards have the power for asking additional information from the
Members proposed to apply or extend the safeguard measure.
On the other hand, Article 12.3 of the Safeguard Agreement requires members
proposing to apply a safeguard measure to consultations prior to the implementation
of its measure.
The other procedural formats envisaged in Article 12.4 to 12.11 of the Agreement on
Safeguards are as under:
- Provisional safeguard measures, if any, to be notified to the Committee on
Safeguards;
- The results of consultations and mid-term review of any form of
compensation and proposed suspension of concessions/ obligations to eb
conveyed immediately to the Council for Trade in Goods;
- Members, laws, rules, regulations relating to safeguards to be notified to the
Committee on Safeguards;
- Any non-governmental measure has to be notified to the Committee on
Safeguards;
- All notifications to the Council for Trade in Goods shall normally be made
through Committee on safeguards; and
- Confidential information may not be disclosed by any member if its
disclosure would impede law enforcement or be contrary to public interest or
prejudice the legitimate commercial interests of particular enterprises, public
or private.
Article 12.3 of the Agreement n Safeguards in regard to consultation was discussed in the
case of ‘Korea-Dairy Products’, ‘US-Pipe Line’, and ‘US-Wheat Gluten’. The sum of
these decisions is that if modification of the original measure takes place that indicates
fair amount of consultation, which led to modification of the original measure. Secondly,
consultations are an important means of achieving the aims of Article 8.1 of the
Safeguard Agreement, the settlement of compensation maintains a balance of
concessions. The fair amount of time necessary to prepare for consultations should be
decided on a case-by case basis. In any case, the exporting members should be allowed
With the establishment of a Committee on Safeguards under the authority of the Council
for Trade in Goods, the Committee has the following functions of surveillance:
(a) to monitor, and report annually to the Council for Trade in Goods and make
recommendations of the general implementation of the Agreement on Safeguards
and its improvements;
(b) Whether or not, upon a request of a member find the procedural requirements
under Council for Trade in Goods.
(c) To assist the members in their consultations under the provisions of the safeguard
agreement on members’ request;
(d) Examine measures covered by Article 10, and paragraph (1) of Article 11 and
monitor phasing out is such measures and report to the Council for Trade in
Goods.
(e) To review upon a request of a member taking a safeguard measure, whether
proposal to suspend concessions or other obligations are substantially equivalent
and report to the Council for Trade in Goods
(f) To receive and review all the notifications provided for in the Agreement on
Safeguards and report to the Council for Trade in Goods;
(g) To perform any other function connected with the Agreement on Safeguards that
the Council for Trade in Goods may determine.
V
Special Treatment for Developing Countries
Article 9 makes special provision for developing countries. These special provision are of
two types:
2. Article 9.2 provides that developing country Members taking safeguard measures can
extend it for a longer period than the developed country Members and can re-impose a
safeguard measure after a lesser gap than that allowed to the developed country
Members.
A developing country Member shall have the right to extend the period of
application of a safeguard measure for a period of up to two years beyond the
Korea claimed in the ‘US-Carbon Line’ 29 that the US violated Article 9.1 by not
excluding developing countries having de-minimis margin. The US on appeal contended
that the Article 9.1 does not obligate Members to provide specifically for non-application
of a safeguard measure, and that the "text requires only that the safeguard measure 'not be
applied' against a developing country Member having less than three percent of
imports." 30 According to the United States, Article 9.1 "is silent as to how a Member
may meet this obligation [in Article 9.1], and certainly does not require a list of the
developing countries [excluded from the measure]". 31 According to the United States it
met the Article 9.1 requirement by establishing a mechanism—a 9,000 ton exemption for
each country—under which the safeguard duty on imports could not possibly apply to
any developing country Member accounting for less than three percent of total imports.
Appellate Body agreed with the US that Article 9.1 does not specify how a Member has
to meet its obligation under the provision. But in the facts of the case it upheld Panel’s
finding that the US has violated its Article 9.1 obligation because it found that according
to the latest data available at the time the line pipe measure took effect—data found in the
Panel record and not disputed by the United States—the 9,000 short-ton exemption from
the over-quota duty imposed by the line pipe measure did not represent three percent of
the total imports. Rather, the exemption represented only 2.7 percent of total imports.
According to the evidence in the Panel record, an exemption of approximately 10,000
short tons would have amounted at the time to a three-percent exclusion. The exemption
applied by the United States was, on the evidence, too small.
VI
Concluding Remarks
On reading the decisions of the WTO Appellate Body and Panel one often wonders
whether it is a victory of formalism in International law. However much we argue
otherwise the doctrine of precedent is getting established in WTO and seems to be there
to stay. 32 Neglect of this fact means that we are overlooking some of the problematic
developments in the WTO jurisprudence. This is quite evident from the integration of the
requirement of ‘unforeseen developments’ for a WTO consistent safeguard measure.
While the interpretation given by the Appellate Body in ‘Korea- Definitive Safeguard
Measures on Imports of Certain Dairy Products’ and in ‘Argentina-Safeguard Measures
on Imports of Footwear’ might be correct according to the rules of interpretation it does
not address the realities of the negotiation process where tariff cuts are made according to
formulae accepted by a process of bargaining. In the absence of product-wise bargaining
the requirement to prove what were the unforeseen developments with regard to
particular product since the time of negotiations is, at best, fantastic. 33
1
The rule was inferred from Article XIX which provided that safeguard measure had to be imposed with
reference to a product. The rule has now been explicitly stated in Article 2.2 of the Agreement on
Safeguards which says, “Safeguard Measures shall be applied to a product being imported irrespective of
its source.”
2
Article 11.1(b) states, “ a Member shall not seek, take or maintain any voluntary export restraints, orderly
marketing arrangements or any other similar measures on the export or the import side. These include
actions taken by a single Member as well as actions under agreements, arrangements and understandings
entered into by two or more Members. Any such measure in effect on the date of entry into force of the
WTO Agreement shall be brought into conformity with this Agreement or phased out in accordance with
Paragraph 2.”
3
There is a presumption against conflict. Indonesia- Certain Measures Affecting the Automobile Industry
WT/DS54/R adopted on 2 July 1998, para 14.28.
4
WT/DS98/AB/R adopted on 14 December 1999.
5
WT/DS121/AB/R adopted on 14 December 1999.
6
Report on the Withdrawal by the United States of a Tariff Concession under Article XIX, adopted on 27
March 1951.
7
Ibid para 9
8
WT/DS238/R adopted on 14 February 2003
9
Argentina-Safeguard Measures on Imports of Footwear WT/DS121/AB/R adopted on 14 December 1999,
Para 93
10
Ibid para 92.
11
United States-Safeguard Measures on Imports of Fresh, Chilled or Frozen Lamb Meat from NewZealand
and Australia WT/DS/177/R,WT/DS/178/R, adopted on 21 December 2000.
12
Ibid. Report of the Panel Para 7.19
13
United States-Safeguard Measures on Imports of Fresh, Chilled or Frozen Lamb Meat from NewZealand
and Australia, Report of the Appellate Body Para 76.
14
WT/DS248/AB/R, adopted on 10 November, 2003.
15
Ibid. Para 350.
16
para 8.276 of panel report.
17
Report of the Appellate Body, para 130.
18
ibid para 131.
19
WT/DS248/AB/R, adopted on 10 November, 2003
20
Report of the Panel Para 10.162.
21
ibid para 10.163.
22
ibid.
23
WT/DS202/AB/R adopted on 15 February 2002.
24
Report of the Panel ADP/92 adopted on 2 April 1993
25
Report para 139
26
WT/DS166/AB/R, adopted on 22 December 2000.
27
WT/DS177/R, WT/DS178/R. Adopted 21 December 2000.
28
This part is based on A.K.Koul, The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade(GATT)/ WTO: Law,
Economics and Politics; Satyam Books (2005), and B.L. Das, The World Trade Organisation: A Guide to
the Framework for International Trade Earthworm Books Pvt. Ltd. (1999).
29
WT/DS202/AB/R adopted on 15 February 2002.
30
United States' appellant's submission, para. 89.
31
Ibid., para. 86.
32
Sheela Rai, “Doctrine of Precedent in WTO” eSS, Mumbai, India
http://www.esocialsciences.com/Articles/displayArticles.asp?Article_ID=787 (1/9/2007)
33
Sheela Rai, “Imposition of Safeguard Measures and Unforeseen Development” unpublished paper.