Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2018) 25:32491–32505

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3203-8

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Sustainable survival under climatic extremes: linking flood risk

mitigation and coping with flood damages in rural Pakistan
Azhar Abbas 1,2 & T. S. Amjath-Babu 1 & Harald Kächele 1 & Muhammad Usman 3 & M. Amjed Iqbal 1 &
Muhammad Arshad 1 & M. Adnan Shahid 4 & Klaus Müller 1

Received: 21 March 2018 / Accepted: 11 September 2018 / Published online: 20 September 2018
# Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Abstract
Various measures are adopted by flood-prone households for the mitigation of flood risk along with various post-flood coping
strategies. We analyze the role of various ex ante household-level flood mitigation strategies in influencing riverine flood
damages. The study also presents an account on the linkages of various ex post coping strategies and flood damages experienced
in a flood event in Pakistan. For achieving a uniform flood damage indicator, polychoric principle component analysis (PCA) is
employed to construct a composite flood damage index considering various aspects of economic, social, and psychological
impacts of a flood event. The adjusted flood damage index is regressed on various socioeconomic features and ex ante mitigation
actions to know their effect on the former. Results indicate that distance from river, elevating house, and pre-shifting investigating
about flooding problem help in significantly reducing the overall flood damages. Likewise, group-based actions like voting
political candidates based on their flood-control promises, organizing grass-root group meetings, and raising voices through
memos/petitions are found to significantly reduce flood-related damages while leaving house premises before flooding is
found to increase the overall flood damage. Post-flood coping strategies comprise of social and financial support along with
some livelihood diversification and disinvestment strategies such as selling livestock, jewelry, and withdrawing children from
schools. Borrowing money, reducing food consumption, and agricultural diversification are more prevalent strategies among low
and medium damage groups while consuming savings is more conspicuous among high damage group. The study concludes
with the emphasis on policy interventions for effective early warning, location-specific flood intensity information, and proper
streamlining of planning process and compensation system.

Keywords Livelihood . Diversification . Composite . Rural . Elevation . Social support

Introduction

Frequency and severity of climatic extremes are increasing in

Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues
developing countries as a result of climate changes (IPCC
2007; IPCC 2012; De Paola et al. 2014). Flooding is one of
* Azhar Abbas
[email protected]; [email protected] such events causing extensive damages in developing world
mainly due to increased exposure and sensitivity to such cli-
1
mate extremes coupled with limited adaptive and coping ca-
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF),
Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
pacity (Kates 2000; Mirza 2002). Pakistan has become highly
2
vulnerable to flooding risk in the face of fast changing climatic
Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of
Agriculture, Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan
dynamics (Nepal and Shrestha 2015; Rafiq and Blaschke
3
2012). Only a handful of studies are available that analyze
Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture,
Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan
the flood mitigation and coping behavior of rural households
4
irrespective of their stage of development (e.g., Bangladesh,
Water Management Research Centre, University of Agriculture,
Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan
Uganda, Germany etc.) (Thieken et al. 2006; Helgeson et al.
32492 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505

2013; Kienzler et al. 2015; Rahman et al. 2015). Much of this result, one must know the pattern and nature of these ex post
literature relies on responses to hypothetical flooding scenar- coping responses for future mitigation and adaptation
ios. There is dearth of studies on actual mitigation and coping planning.
behavior of rural households after experiencing a severe flood Households vulnerable to flooding particularly in develop-
event. It is useful to investigate how people behave before, ing countries are obliged to focus few common precautionary
during, and after a catastrophic event in order to design sus- (mitigation) measures such as strengthening embankments,
tainable flood management policies. For making a case study getting insured, raising plinths, and relocating assets and be-
in South Asia, we have selected Pakistan, a country that is longings (Aryal et al. 2014; Sam et al. 2017). The latter option
facing increased frequency of major flooding events. In the is also common in coping with flood after it has hit a particular
country, the overall economic damage due to flooding was locality. The other coping options may include reduction in
around $US20 billion which constitutes 73% of the total eco- current consumption, disposal of assets (livestock and land,
nomic damages due to all natural disasters in the country dur- for example), and a cut on the expenditure on children’s edu-
ing the last 35 years (CRED 2015), despite the fact that cation (Helgeson et al. 2013; Berman et al. 2015).
flooding events accounted only 51% of the overall natural Nevertheless, socioeconomic status, demographic back-
catastrophic events during this time period (Fig. 1). The ex- ground, political characteristics, and perceptions do shape
pected increased frequency and severity (Immerzeel et al. these decisions to a greater extent (Adger et al. 2003;
2010; Hirabayashi et al. 2013) of flooding in the country Bubeck et al. 2012a; Shah et al. 2017). At the same time, there
makes it an ideal case study region in South Asia. are a handful of community-based initiatives and strategies
Under the current and future scenarios of climate change, a which both aim at mitigating the flood impacts and house-
range of ex ante flood adaption measures are needed and given holds’ miseries after the onset of the event (Few 2003; Islam
the lack of systematic institutional support mechanisms, pri- et al. 2012; Mavhura et al. 2013). The motivation for adopting
vate households are forced to exercise precautionary measures any measures before the incidence of flooding is directed at
in order to avoid disastrous impacts of flooding. Within the avoiding/minimizing the intensity of adverse effects either
given socioeconomic circumstances, households do try to direct or indirect and tangible or intangible. Such motivation
adopt specific measures in order to alleviate flood severity. is best backed by protection motivation theory (PMT)
Assessment of the effectiveness of various ex ante adaptation explaining people’s damage prevention behavior against
(household-level and group-based initiatives) actions against flooding given their experience of such events, risk of future
flooding may offer insights for the long-term solutions to di- floods, and other perceptions about the existing flood protec-
sastrous flooding events. In addition, occurrence of extreme tion infrastructure (Grothmann and Reusswig 2006; Siegrist
events such as floods cannot be fully mitigated using ex ante and Gutcher 2008; Bubeck et al. 2012a; Bubeck et al. 2018).
measures and hence various ex post measures are needed to Why put more efforts to avoid flood losses is a question to
sustain life and livelihood. People may use range of activities be answered both by the research and policy practitioners.
and strategies to cope with the incurred flood damages to Contemporary research needs to come up with the indicators
facilitate recovery (Scoones 1998). These actions, strategies of flood intensity through flood risk assessment which then
and measures that are taken after occurrence of a crisis, fall can be translated into viable policy options in terms of miti-
under the ambit of ex post coping mechanisms. The knowl- gation and coping strategies (Brown and Damery 2002;
edge of these strategies and options is integral part of an ef- Johnstone and Lence 2009). Such an assessment is highly
fective disaster (flood) risk management planning within the necessary as the climatic variability continues to strongly in-
existing institutional frameworks (Birkmann 2011). As a fluence the occurrence and intensity of flooding (Pouliotte

Fig. 1 Percentage of all natural No. of disasters in Pakistan (1980-2015)

disasters faced by Pakistan
(source of data, CRED (2015)) Flood 51%

Storm 8%

Landslide 13%

Heat waves 9%

Epidemic 2%

Earthquake 16%

Drought 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505 32493

et al. 2009; Hirabayashi et al. 2013). As noted by Jalayer et al. community or public body, De Risi et al. (2018), present a
(2013), prediction and quantification of the vulnerability and novel approach of evaluating the role of such strategies using
adverse effects of flooding are the significant steps for life cycle cost (LCC) and return on investment (ROI) analyses
achieving integrated adaptation to climate change. At the and find that all studied scenarios produce net welfare gains by
same time, they also note that future climate patterns may reducing expected annual loss (EAL) by 21–54%. They fur-
adversely affect the frequency and/or intensity of flooding ther show that catchment rehabilitation option stays superior
events. Similarly, De Paola et al. (2014) in their seminal work, to relocating flood-prone people or constructing large water
show a rise in both frequency and intensity of hydrological reservoir (De Risi et al. 2018). In contrast, relatively less re-
events under climate change for the projected period of 2010– search work has been done to investigate such relationships in
2050. Consequently, the increased frequency of flooding case of developing countries particularly Pakistan in terms of
events pose serious threats for urban as well as rural settle- households’ mitigation options as well as those undertaken at
ments through hydrodynamic and hydrostatic pressure, debris organizational/community level.
impact, or a combination of these (De Risi et al. 2013). Flood- Adaptation actions are undertaken to safeguard oneself
prone rural areas are particularly faced with damages such as from future risk event with unknown or low probability.
loss of life, economic losses and losses to buildings, crops, and Decision-making for such actions is not governed by expected
assets. Consequently, the nature of mitigation and coping utility theory. Some decisions under risk are governed by
strategies would be shaped once an integrated assessment of prospect theory whereby individuals either neglect such low-
the flooding risk is carried out through properly heeding to the probability risks or overweight them and would accordingly
variations in climate parameters as well as the nature of chang- adopt specific actions (Tversky and Kahneman 1992; Botzen
es to the existing infrastructure (De Risi et al. 2013). With this and van den Bergh 2012). Under this theory, individuals who
perspective, working out the efficacy and role of various mit- are generally more sensitive to future losses and thus attach
igation and coping options in relation to flood losses experi- higher weightage to these events are motivated to take ex ante
enced in a flood event can serve as effective benchmarks for precautionary actions (Schmidt and Zank 2008). In contrast,
adaptation planning and implementation. Grothmann and Reusswig (2006) show the applicability of
With this background, the present study is conducted with Bprotection motivation theory^ (PMT) to natural hazards like
the objective to evaluate the nature of ex ante mitigation/ flooding. This theory differentiates between Bthreat appraisal^
adaptation strategies and to judge their effectiveness in terms and Bcoping appraisal^ that shape the decision to undertake
of withstanding flood-related damages. Moreover, the study precautionary measures against flooding. These decisions,
also investigates the pattern of ex post coping strategies in therefore, are based on individual’s assessment about the
relation to flood impacts in the study area. probability of threat and associated potential damages (threat
appraisal or risk perception) and evaluation of people's coping
abilities by averting the threat and associated costs thereof
Households’ adaptation and coping (coping appraisal). According to Bubeck et al. (2012a),
strategies to flood losses: a literature review high-risk perception by an individual would necessarily
result into a protective response if it is accompanied by
In case of flooding, a considerable amount of risk is eliminated coping appraisal. Therefore, they question the focus on risk
by structural measures undertaken by the states such as con- perceptions as a source of promoting private flood mitiga-
struction of dikes, embankments, dams, or river training tion behavior in being theoretically or empirically unsup-
(Botzen et al. 2013). The residual risk after taking these mea- ported (Bubeck et al. 2012b). Moreover, Poussin et al.
sures can be mitigated through a portfolio of ex ante measures (2014) have shown that indicators on threat appraisal have
by individual households (Kreibich et al. 2005; Thieken et al. a non-significant influence on the intentions to implement
2006). Decisions to opt or prefer a particular mitigation option additional flood damage mitigation measures while indica-
are shaped by, in many cases, socioeconomic (income, age, tors on coping appraisal related to structural and non-
gender etc.), behavioral (beliefs and perceptions), or physical structural measures significantly influenced intentions to
parameters (Grothmann and Reusswig 2006) such as presence undertake additional measures. As a result, the dominating
of structural (embankments, dikes, and diversions) or non- role of coping appraisal seems to lead any mitigation effort
structural measures (flood insurance, early warnings, evacua- if associated loss reduction becomes discernable to indi-
tion, and compensation). Bubeck et al. (2012a) enlist 16 sci- viduals. Under such scenario, if households become aware
entific studies that evaluated various factors of influence on of the loss aversion potential of particular strategy, its up-
flood mitigation behavior among households in developed take would likely accelerate.
nations such as Germany, Japan, USA, and Netherlands. Flooding events cause losses to property, crops, livestock,
Contrary to what households opt as mitigation strategies, the and infrastructure and trigger various ex post coping options
efficacy of various mitigation strategies undertaken by by the victims. After suffering a shock from floods,
32494 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505

households employ several strategies to cope flood losses. that particular village. In addition, ten focussed group
These options are exercised as an attempt to minimize risks discussions (FGDs) were also carried out with the officials
and to ensure sustenance. Some of the measures such as dis- of various departments linked with flood management and
posal of productive assets and consumption of savings may experts from universities. As a result, the total number of
have the long-term effects on income earning and future in- surveyed villages was 25 whereas the total number of sur-
vestment opportunities and can potentially lead to reduced veyed households was 250.
consumption. Other strategies may include migration, chang- The questionnaire sought information on (a) socioeconomic
es in food intake, reduction in expenditures, borrowing, or and demographic background; (b) flood damages to crops, live-
changes in occupation. stock and houses, coping responses, and adaptation strategies to
Previous studies indicate that most homeowners have little flooding risk; and (c) the financial assistance received from
knowledge about the causes of natural hazards and they most- government, private sector, and NGOs. The full-scale data col-
ly rely on structural measures and government actions for their lection was undertaken in 2013. The criterion for the inclusion
solutions (Laska 1986). Hence, many studies focus on inves- of respondents was a random selection of those households
tigating the potential role of various structural and non- who obtained government compensation of ≥ Rs. 25,000
structural measures in reducing flood damages. The need of (equivalent to ≈ $US250) from the list of flood victims for each
collective action and exploitation of social capital can be a village. The compensation received by the household was
general prerequisite for many of this kind of measures. As based on damage appraisal by local authorities.
evinced by Percy (1983) and Laska (1986), there is clear ev- The mean age of the family head was about 53 years (stan-
idence of residents’ willingness to be involved in collective dard deviation (s.d. 7.8 years) whereas his mean education
actions aimed at flood mitigation. On the other hand, flooding was 5.3 years of schooling (s.d. 4.4 years). The average land
insurance, for instance, being a non-structural ex ante measure holding size of those who owned land was 2.5 ha (s.d. 2.4 ha)
does not directly reduce physical flood losses but provide a while 18% of the sampled households who cultivated rented
financial cushion against flood damages (Thieken et al. 2006; land had a mean land holding size of 1.12 ha (s.d. 0.98 ha).
Akter et al. 2011; Abbas et al. 2015) and hence may avoid The average distance from the river was about 2.2 km (s.d.
some of the ex post miseries and consequences. Nevertheless, 0.69 km). Finally, the elevation of house from ground level
individuals generally place value to those measures which (plinth) was about 1 m (s.d. 0.22 m).
reduce risk to zero such as elevated plinth of houses than risk
reduction measures like flood insurance. Analytical procedure
With this background, this research work analyzes the link-
ages between flood damages and family and group-based ex We follow a quantitative analytical procedure for linking ex
ante initiatives and describes the ex post measures adopted by ante adaptation strategies to flood damages while a qualitative
rural households in Pakistan affected by a recent flood event. approach is used to further describe the linkages of the flood
damages to ex post coping options. In order to evaluate the
impact of ex ante strategies on household flood damages, we
Research methodology constructed a composite index of the damages due to flooding
in 2010 which included both quantitative and qualitative
Survey design and data collection (ordinal) information. The principal component analysis
is taken as a method to composite indexing which is a
This study was carried out in five randomly selected flood- multivariate technique for reducing dimensions (Thieken
affected districts (by 2010 floods) of Punjab province in et al. 2005; Nardo et al. 2008; Abson et al. 2012). The
Pakistan. The data were collected through face-to-face inter- method extracts a limited number of uncorrelated vari-
views using structured questionnaire keeping in view the gen- ables (principal components) which is a linear combina-
eral educational status in rural Pakistan along with reduced tion of the correlated variables in the dataset. The com-
scope of administering web-based or postal surveys given posite index is constructed by adding the principal com-
the poor logistical facilities. The data were collected from ponents with explained variance as weighting parameter.
Jhang, Mianwali, Layyah, Muzaffar Garh, and Dera Ghazi Due to the fact that the data included ordinal variables,
Khan (DG Khan) districts (Fig. 2). The selection of these five we used polychoric PCA analysis suggested by Maydeu
districts was made randomly from the list of all flood-affected and D’Zurilla (1995) and Kolenikov and Angeles (2009).
districts in Punjab obtained from Provincial Disaster The polychoric correlations are a sort of Pearson’s cor-
Management Authority (PDMA). Five villages from each dis- relations for ordinal variables calculated by assuming un-
trict were randomly selected from the list of all flood-affected derlying latent variables with standard normal distribu-
villages of each district. From each village, ten households tion. The Bpolychoric PCA^ command in STATA is used
were randomly selected from a list of all flood victims within to carry out this analysis. The composite indicator
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505 32495

Fig. 2 Location of the study districts

(index) for flood damages is derived using the following households in 2010 flood event were considered and a com-
two equations: posite flood damage indicator in the form of FDmgi is calcu-

lated using Eq. (2). This index is then normalized using
Pij ¼ ∑ l nj X ni ð1Þ Eq. (3). Afterwards, the adjusted index is regressed on a set
n

of explanatory variables having the following functional form:
FDmgi ¼ ∑ v j Pij ð2Þ
j
FDmgðAÞi ¼ α þ ∑X i β i þ μi ð4Þ
where FDmgi represents the overall flood damage score of ith where Xi is the vector of independent variables including
household; Pij is jth principal component for ith household, socio-physical features of the households and various flood
and l nj is jth component loading for nth variable. X ni are values risk mitigation strategies (both individual and community and/
of the nth flood damage variable for ith household whereas vj or group-based) aimed at reducing flood damage. βi represents
is the variance accounted by jth principal component. The the value of coefficients associated with each explanatory var-
resulting index is then standardized and regressed (multiple iable, i.e., Xi. The expression ∑Xi βi thus indicates the nature
linear regression) over the variables representing different ex (direction) and extent of influence of each variable BX^ on the
ante strategies and selected sociodemographic variables. As overall flood damage. This model is estimated using multiple
the FDmg may contain negative and positive values, the stan- linear regressions for getting linkages of ex ante mitigation
dardization of this index is done for its use in the regression strategies and households’ characteristics with the composite
analysis at a 0–1 scale by using the following equation: flood damage indicator.
V i −V min In order to look into the relation of damages to ex post
FDmgðAÞi ¼ ð3Þ coping measures, we used simple classification of strategies
V max −V min
to flood damage categories to find general tendencies.
where
FDmg(A)i adjusted flood damage index for ith household
Description of flood damage indicators
Vi unadjusted index for ith household
and explanatory variables
Vmin minimum value of the unadjusted index in the
sample
The first step in our analysis was to construct a composite
Vmax maximum value of the unadjusted index in the
flood damage indicator. This is necessary, as flood damages
sample
explored in the study area are in both tangible and intangible
For calculating a uniform indicator of flood damage in the form. Tangible damages (or monetary damages for simplicity)
study area, various forms of losses experienced by the include losses to crops, livestock, assets, and house (referred
32496 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505

to as Bfour^ damage categories of monetary losses). The in- participation in networks along with other strategies such as
tangible or non-monetary damages experienced by the sur- adapting buildings by increasing their elevation or pre-flood
veyed households include loss of life (deaths due to flooding), selling of valuables are generally employed as precautionary
injuries, increased medical costs, domestic violence in the strategies (Kreibich et al. 2005; Kienzler et al. 2015). Various
aftermath of flooding, leaving house due to flood (relocation), household-level and group-based initiatives are adopted by the
effect on local attachment, increase in food expenditure, and surveyed households in order to reduce flood losses. The type
the number of diarrhea affected family members. The detail of of responses and frequencies of their adoption are presented in
each element is provided in Table 1 below and under the Fig. 3a, b. The most popular strategy at household level is
heding BFlood damages experienced by households^ in re- raising the basement of the house followed by pre-flood selling
sults and discussion section. As the above-listed damage indi- of valuables as they are adopted by more than 50% respondents
cators differ in terms of nature—some being continuous and whereas leaving house before the onset of flooding is adopted
some being categorical—polychoric PCA is best-suited tech- by more than 50% respondents. Most of the other strategies are
nique to reduce dimensionsionality of these elements adopted by about 20% respondents (Fig. 3a).
(Kolenikov and Angeles 2009) as well as getting a uniform Strategies related to group work based on social capital are
indicator based on their share in total variance for weighting generally less common (Fig. 3b). Nevertheless, participation
purpose using Eq. (2). in self-help efforts (such as participation in building and main-
In the last step, the adjusted FDmgi for each household is tenance of embankments, transporting valuables, securing
regressed on a set of socioeconomic variables including age of livestock, and helping those who cannot take precautionary
the household head and his education along with a set of measures), organization of interest groups at grass-root level,
mitigation/adaptation strategies undertaken privately by the re- and signing of memoranda for the solutions of flooding issue
spondents either individually or in the form of group within the is practiced by more than 50% respondents although the fre-
community. The detail of each variable is provided in Table 3 in quency of such actions varies mostly from occasional to sel-
BEffect of ex-ante strategies on mitigation of flood damages.^ dom. Among the top most frequently adopted strategies, or-
ganizing frequent meetings at grassroots level is reported by
about 7% respondents. On the other hand, frequently voting
Results and discussion political candidates based on their promises on flood-control
policies are adopted by about 5% respondents. In the same
Ex ante flood preparedness and linkages to flood manner, frequently signing of memos and petitions highlight-
damages ing flooding problem for its effective solution is reported by
around 3% households. There are a considerable number of
Flood-prone households take up a range of ex ante adaptation households who also report the adoption of these measures
strategies to mitigate the probable damages from flood event occasionally. Organizing grassroots meetings on occasional
well before its onset or just ahead of the disaster (Thieken et al. basis is practiced by about 23% whereas the percentage of
2007). Preparedness constitutes an important component of households occasionally voting candidates in line with their
flood loss mitigation. Pre-flood information collection and flood-control viewpoint and participating in self-help efforts is

Table 1 Categories of flood damages reported by the respondents

Damage variable Variable description Mean (Rs.) Std. deviation Percentage of total financial loss

dmcr Crop damage 187,203 13,377 67.3

dmho Damage to house 46,144 26,725 16.6
dmls Damage to livestock 26,722 18,264 9.6
dassets Damage to other assets 18,091 13,904 6.5
Total damage 278,160 146,058 100
nodeath No. of deaths 0.1 0.30 –
injury No. of injured family members 0.96 0.73 –
medcost Increase in medical cost (1 = Yes; 0 = No) 0.49 0.50 –
dviolanc Domestic violence after flooding (1 = Yes; 0 = No) 0.35 0.48 –
lh Left house due to flood (1 = Yes; 0 = No) 0.75 0.43 –
localatt Effect on local attachment (1 = Yes; 0 = No) 0.69 0.46 –
foodexpn Decrease in food expenditure (1 = Yes; 0 = No) 0.72 0.45 –
diarrhea No. of diarrhea-affected persons 1.62 0.94 –
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505 32497

Fig. 3 Ex ante flood risk 100%

mitigation measures adopted by (a)

respondents at household-level
80%
(a), group-based actions aimed at
flood risk mitigation (as multiple
measures are possible per
60%
household, the percentage goes
beyond 100%) (b)
40%

20%

0%
Raising & Installation of Pre-flood selling Pre-shifting Participation in Contributed Moved livestock Left house
maintenance of Sandbags investigation E & M of money for to higher before flooding
Plinth about floods embankments maintenance of grounds
embankment

Organized grass-root meetings of interest groups

(b) Signed petitions and memos for the solution of flooding problems
Participated in self-help efforts
Attended Govt. meetings addressing flooding issue
Voted candidates based on their flood control agenda
200%

160%

120%

80%

40%

0%
Frequent Occasional Seldom Never Don't know

about 18% each. The nature of community cooperation and Flood damages experienced by households
group-based actions although varies considerably in the study
area but they constitute an important aspect of integrated flood Flood-caused destruction to buildings, crops, livestock, and
risk management (Pearce 2003). other assets (machinery, trees, household items) in the study
area. Nevertheless, the values of the four damage categories
(monetary losses to crops, livestock, assets, and house) differ
Effect of ex ante strategies on flood damage among households. Major damage reported is in the form of
crop damage being 67% of the total damages whereas the
In order to evaluate the efficacy of household-level measures damage to house stood at second place with 16.6% of the total
and group actions on flood damages, we constructed a uni- damage. In addition to monetary impacts, less quantifiable
form index of flood damage based on flood damage values for impacts are also inflicted by the floods which are often ig-
crops, house, livestock, other assets; injuries and medical nored in assessments. We consider the aspects of damages like
costs, deaths, decreased food consumption, psychological or number of deaths due to flood, increase in need of medical
social effects such as leaving house after flooding, domestic treatments, domestic violence, need to quit home for longer
violence, and effect on local relations. The indexed value of period, damage to local relations, decrease in food expendi-
flood damages was then regressed on household and group- ture, and number of injured and diarrhea-affected persons per
based measures adopted by each respondent. family (Table 1).
32498 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505

Polychoric PCA for ex post flood effects indicators Effect of ex ante strategies on mitigation of flood damages

For constructing composite index on flood damages pre- In order to evaluate the effect of household-level measures and
sented in Table 1, a polychoric PCA analysis is per- group actions on flooding damages, the flood damage index for
formed to generate weights. This type of PCA analysis each household is regressed on household and group-based mea-
is carried out due to the presence of both continuous and sures adopted by them using multiple linear regression (Table 3).
ordinal variables in the dataset (Holgado et al. 2010). The results of the multiple regression analysis show interesting
The results of this analysis are provided in Table 2. findings with reasonable explanatory power with higher F value
The results also show some of the hidden correlation indicating better model fit. Majority of the entered explanatory
among the selected variables. Factor 1 consists of dam- variables showed signs expected a priori. Results indicate that
age to house infrastructure and whether the victim left age and education of the household head have no significant
house meaning that the people are forced to leave the effect on flood damage mitigation. An aging community (aver-
house if they expect heavy damage to their house. age age of household head being 53 years) with an average
Factor 2 represents livestock damage in the form of in- schooling years of around five seems to undermine the role of
jury or death, human deaths, and effect on local rela- these variables in controlling or reducing flood losses. In con-
tions. Factor 3 consists of damages to crops and other trast, in a developed country context, Poussin et al. (2014) show
assets which may also lead to reduction in food con- a significant role of education and age in deciding to implement
sumption or expenditure thereof. Finally, factor 4 brings additional mitigation measures against flooding that would ulti-
out the hidden relationship among injuries, medical mately reduce flood losses. The distance from river has a signif-
costs, domestic violence, and diarrhea incidents. icant negative influence on overall flood losses which is accord-
Nevertheless, the major aim of the PCA analysis is to ing to our expectation. As shown in Table 3, an increase of
construct weights for getting uniform damage index. distance from river (or water body) by 1 km would reduce the
The histograms of the estimated flood damage index flooding damage by 0.151 units. Similarly, raising and mainte-
(both adjusted and unadjusted) using polychoric PCA nance of plinth have a significant impact on reducing flood dam-
are presented in Fig. 4. It is evident from this figure that ages. The coefficient for this variable shows that the overall
more than 50% households are exposed to relatively flooding damage would reduce by 0.724 units if one opts this
greater flooding risk as the values of adjusted flood dam- measure. This outcome seems to be close to reality as elevating
age index range from 0.4 to 1. houses would reduce damage to house and other valuables with-
in the house. Elevating houses above ground level is universally
adapted to avoid potential floodwaters and flood damage by
Table 2 Results of polychoric PCA analysis
reducing flood exposure. According to Botzen et al. (2013),
Factors Variance Difference Proportion Cumulative elevation of houses is accompanied by reduced flood damage
Factor l 1.763 0.309 0.336 0.336 in many parts of the world. On the other hand, the practice of
Factor 2 1.453 0.063 0.277 0.613 installing sandbags is not as common as elevating the house in
Factor 3 1.390 0.445 0.265 0.879 the study area although their application and usefulness is
Factor 4 0.944 0.180 1.059 reported by Reeve and Badr (2003) in international context.
LR test: independent vs. saturated χ2 = 930.89; Prob. > χ2 = 0.0000 The indexed value of flood damage reduces significantly if
Rotated factor loadings (pattern matrix) respondents investigated and learned about the intensity of
Variable Factor l Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 flooding problem before moving to the current farm/house.
dmls 0.297 0.395 − 0.058 0.185 This information-seeking behavior, in turn, guides them to
dmcr − 0.001 − 0.068 0.678 0.040 resort to additional measures in safeguarding themselves
dmho 0.771 0.169 0.047 0.081 against potential flood losses. According to Poussin et al.
dassets 0.332 0.164 0.684 0.009 (2014), the provision of such information on flooding disaster
nodeath 0.212 0.782 − 0.083 − 0.020 and its impact can lead to enhanced flood damage mitigation
injury 0.140 0.417 0.109 0.436 measures. In contrast, there is a significant positive effect of
medcost − 0.274 − 0.289 0.085 − 0.510 leaving house 5 days or more before flooding on overall flood
dviolanc 0.049 − 0.231 − 0.074 0.529 damage index. It implies that the flood damage index is ex-
lh 0.859 0.093 0.024 0.059 pected to increase by one unit if a household leaves house
localatt 0.011 0.413 0.152 0.233 prior to flooding. It can be intuitively argued that leaving
foodexpn 0.265 0.350 − 0.614 0.107
house prior to flood incidence may expose the house infra-
diarrhea 0.130 − 0.105 0.150 0.317
structure to flooding pressure thus causing destruction to as-
sets and livestock. This fact is further evident from a very high
Italic figures represent the highest factor loadings factor loading of this variable to factor 1 which is a
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505 32499

Fig. 4 Histogram of flood 140 70

damage index for surveyed Mean = 0.3398
120 60
households Coefficient of variaon (COV) = 0.488
Mean = 0.000079
100 Coefficient of variaon (COV) = 15.81 50

80 40

Frequency
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
-2 -1.5 -1 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3+
Flood Damage Index (Unadjusted) Flood Damage Index (Adjusted)

combination of house damage and exercise of leaving house. and signing petitions and memoranda for the solution of
Under such situation, households are unable to prevent losses flooding problems. The positive signs of these results are
to house through bund making or installing sandbags. due to the fact that the variables were measured on a scale of
Nevertheless, the practice of leaving house may reduce the 1–5 where 1 stands for frequent exercise of the measure and 5
death or injuries to members of the household. Generally, stands for not knowing what the measure means. A positive
flood-prone households move to flood-protected areas to their sign shows that the overall flooding damage would increase if
relatives or friends who provide feed, fodder, and shelter to households do not take (or decrease the frequency of their
them. uptake) the community-based measures. These results show
Among measures based on group actions, five out of three that taking adaptation measures individually and collectively
actions play a significant role in attenuation of flood losses can reduce the damages to a significant extent. Community-
viz. voting political candidates based on their promises on based activities directed at mitigating future risk are regarded
flood control policies, organizing grassroots interest groups to be effective in developing a sense of ownership to and

Table 3 Results of the multiple regression analysis (dependent variable is the flood damage index)

Variable Variable description Coefficient SE t value

Age Age of the household head (years) 0.012 0.009 1.42

Edu Education (years) 0.014 0.016 0.90
Distance Distance from river (km) − 0.151* 0.086 − 1.75
RMPlinth Raising and maintenance of plinth (1 = Yes; 0 = No) − 0.724*** 0.154 − 4.69
Sold Pre-flood selling (of something) to avoid its loss (1 = Yes; 0 = No) − 0.028 0.142 − 0.19
FloodPrb Flooding problem investigated before moving to current place (1 = Yes; 0 = No) − 0.273* 0.153 − 1.78
ParticipBM Participation in building and maintenance of embankment (1 = Yes; 0 = No) 0.085 0.156 0.54
Money Contributed money for the maintenance of embankment (1 = Yes; 0 = No) 0.079 0.168 0.47
MovedLS Moved livestock to higher grounds (1 = Yes; 0 = No) 0.125 0.139 0.89
LeftHouse Left house before flooding (1 = Yes; 0 = No)1 0.995*** 0.214 4.64
Voted† Voted political candidates based on their promises on flood-control policies 0.119** 0.052 2.29
AttendMeet† Attended Govt. meetings addressing flooding issue 0.044 0.082 0.52
Selfhelp† Participated in self-help efforts − 0.023 0.080 − 0.28
GrossRoot† Organized grassroots interest groups 0.172** 0.085 2.01
SignedPeti† Jointly signed memos and petitions 0.109* 0.061 1.79
Constant − 1.275 0.865 − 1.47
F (16, 233) 5.0143***
R2 0.256
Adjusted R2 0.205

*p < 0.1; **p < 0.05: ***p < 0.01

†
Coded on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 = Frequent (twice per year); 2 = Occasional (once in a year or when flooding is imminent); 3 = Seldom (once in
5 years or more); 4 = Never; 5 = Do not know
1
Leaving house 5 days or more prior to the onset of flooding based on inhabitants’ access to information or flood warnings
32500 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505

attachment with jointly developed infrastructure or jointly group when compared with low and medium damage groups.
adopted strategies (Pearce 2003; Rawlani and Sovacool The counter intuitive result could be due to the fact that the
2011). Joint efforts through the involvement of community high damage groups have more reserves (savings) compared
using their local knowledge and resources provide useful im- to other groups. Households generally follow these strategies
petus for the sustainability of interventions and physical mea- as part of livelihood and agricultural diversification such as
sures (Shaw 2006; Poustie et al. 2014) along with providing changing income sources and cropping pattern (Berman et al.
an additional management layer. 2015) which is manifested by a very high percentage of house-
The results show the utility of ex ante measures and the holds who cultivated land on rent irrespective of flood damage
need of facilitating coping appraisal and threat appraisal (such although relatively smaller in case of high damage group.
as knowing in advance the potential flooding risk before mov- More than 60% farmers opted to cultivate land on rent among
ing to a specific locality) as effective flood adaptation strate- the three damage groups in order. This practice is helpful in
gies. In addition, realizing a bigger role of community through timely sowing of wheat and fodder in the immediate aftermath
its proactive involvement in the case of flood risk mitigation of flood event in ensuring timely availability of fodder for
planning and implementation is desirable. As there is a poten- livestock and wheat grain for the family. For this purpose,
tial of households to cooperate in the form of group actions, generally, lands in flood-protected areas are obtained under
the focus may be given or at least shifted to streamline temporary renting agreements in the vicinity of study area
community-led initiatives for creating sense of responsibility although these lands may also be located at 10–15 km away
and ownership among people (Abbas et al. 2016). There is a from the residence. Another reason for securing rented land is
need of information campaigns aimed at creating awareness the drive to diversify income sources with less exposure to
about potential flood risk at particular locations along with flood hazard in the near future. In contrast, migration to new
potential measures for reducing that risk which would serve location or intent to do so was not reported to a significant
effectively through sensitizing community members towards degree (only 2%) which shows the attachment of households
increased preparedness based on individual and group work. to their present locations.
This necessitates active institutional support by providing Likewise, some capital disinvestment strategies such as sell-
platforms, legal support, political, and financial backup. ing livestock and drawing on savings are also followed depend-
ing on the nature of the shock (Chuku and Okoye 2009). In this
Ex post coping with the floods regard, selling of land is found more popular among high dam-
age group (13%) compared to other groups whereas consump-
Households' coping responses tion of saving is almost equally practiced by all flood damage
groups (around 80%) although slightly less common in low
Once the flooding event occurs, the households undertake a damage group. This fact is intuitively justified on the basis of
number of strategies in response to various damages inflicted larger land endowment, higher incomes, and subsequently in-
by the flood though the scale is dependent upon their ex ante creased amount of savings as illustrated in Fig. 5b, on the part
strategies. Figure 5a presents the nature of ex post coping of higher damage groups. Another important strategy followed
strategies opted by the flood victims in the study area. It is by the flood victims is disruption of children’s education either
evident from the figure that seeking and availing of transfers by forcing them to leave school or to work. More than 15%
in the form of compensation and aid from government and households opted these two options although less common
NGOs was by far the most popular strategy. Capital disinvest- among high damage group and more popular among medium
ment strategy seemed to be less common among majority of damage group (it could be due to renting in land that requires
the households as only about 30% respondents adopted selling labor). Reduction in food consumption either through reduced
of the land. Majority of the respondents did not prefer to frequency of meals per day or reduced intake per meal is almost
take out their children from school or forced them to work. double in terms of percentages among low and medium dam-
Nevertheless, consumption of savings and selling of livestock age groups compared to high damage group. These strategies
and cereals were exercised by 70% and 83% respondents, do pose negative consequences for sustainable development as
respectively. Borrowing of money from friends, money- reducing food consumption, selling of assets and livestock, and
lenders, and relatives; renting and cultivation land on rent; disrupting children’s education would lead to detrimental ef-
and reducing food consumption were adopted by more than fects in the long-run (Helgeson et al. 2013) especially for de-
50% respondents. veloping countries like Pakistan.
To get more insights, the above-listed strategies of ex post In addition, in case of high damage group, the consumption
responses are classified based on flood damage categories of savings as an ex post strategy is common while reduction in
(Fig. 5b). Borrowing of money, change in employment or food consumption is relatively less common. These aspects
work, cultivation of land on rent, selling of jewelry, and re- imply relatively sound resource base and greater amount of
ducing consumption are less common among high damage savings in case of high damage group enabling them to
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505 32501

Percentage of all respondents (N= 250)

(a) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Borrowed money 50%

Received transfers from Govt./NGOs 98%

Sold wheat and livestock 70%

Consumed savings 83%

Sold jewellary 28%

Sold/rented-out/mortgaged land 8%

Changed employment/work pattern 36%

Forced children to work to earn 22%

Took out children from schools 29%

Cultivated land on lease/rent 72%

Changed cropping pattern 37%

Reduced food consumption 66%

High damage group Medium damage group Low damage group

(b)
Borrowed money
Received transfers from Govt./NGOs
Sold wheat and livestock
Consumed savings
Sold jewelry
Sold/rented-out/mortgaged land
Changed employment/work pattern
Forced children to work to earn
Took out children from schools
Cultivated land on lease/rent
Changed cropping pattern
Reduced food consumption
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage of all respondents (N= 250)

Fig. 5 Mix of ex post coping responses to flood impacts in the study area for whole sample (a), with respect to flood damage categories (b)

continue routine intake of food. In other words, they are more Ex post social and governmental support
resilient and better equipped in coping with the flood dam-
ages. This aspect is further evident from the spread of mean The federal government of Pakistan in collaboration with the
total yearly income and mean value of total flood damages provincial governments launched a cash compensation
experienced among various flood damage categories (see scheme immediately after the flood event in 2010 (UNHCR
Fig. 6). The mean amount of damages experienced by each 2011). Looking at the amount of support received by flood
group is relatively less than mean total yearly income which is victims, it is revealed that flood victims with low damage
significantly different at 95% confidence intervals for all three (< Rs. 150,000) forming 14.4% of the total sample could man-
groups. Nevertheless, exceptionally high mean total income age to obtain Rs. 38,305. Similarly, respondents experiencing
among the respondents of high damage group (almost double) medium damage (Rs. 150,001–300,000) who form 55.6% of
compared with other two groups shows their relatively higher the total sample received monetary support equivalent to Rs.
coping capacity and ability to recover through their own 56,589 whereas high damage group (flood damage Rs. >
resources. 300,000) comprising 30% of the sample received Rs.
32502 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505

86,280. The mean total compensation (Rs. 62,864) was

around 1/4 of estimated total damages (Rs. 278,160). Botzen
et al. (2009) and Grothmann and Reusswig (2006) have
shown a reduced instinct for self-protection on the part of
those people who perceive flood-damage compensation as
the responsibility of government. Nevertheless, in absence of
flood insurance programs (Abbas et al. 2015), compensation
of damages based on realistic assessment criteria is necessary
to the flood victims for early recovery from flood damages.
Apart from governmental compensation, most of the flood
victims got support, in order to recover from flooding, from
local community, from relatives, and from NGOs. Most im-
portantly, the support from the government agencies reached
bulk of the respondents whereas massive support from rela-
tives and kinship networks shows the presence of reasonably
active social capital within the study areas. In this regard,
respondents were asked to value the support received from
various community members and groups on a scale ranging
Fig. 6 Comparison of mean total income and flood losses (during 2010
from 1 (not helpful) to 3 (much helpful). The results indicate
floods) among three flood damage groups
that most of the respondents rated the support as being helpful
or much helpful. Nevertheless, the role by the religious groups

Fig. 7 Extent and nature of Much helpful Helpful Not helpful

support from various community (a)
groups reflected by percentage of Other community
respondents according to the organizations
extent of support from various Government agencies
community groups (a), nature of
community support for flood NGOs and charitable
victims (percentage of organizations
respondents receiving
support) (b) Religious groups

Friends and acquaintances

Relative/kinship networks

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percentage of all respondents (N= 250)

100%
(b)
80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
Moral support Temporary Help in moving Loans of cash or Feed and fodder Nothing
shelter during family, food for livestock
and after belongings and
flooding livestock
Environ Sci Pollut Res (2018) 25:32491–32505 32503

was less conspicuous as only about 17% of the total respon- The results warrant effective policy interventions in terms of
dents could get benefit from them (Fig. 7a). both ex ante flood risk mitigation and ex post coping of flood
The support from within the community was in the form of disasters. Accurate information regarding location-specific na-
lending money, moral support, temporary shelter for family ture of flooding problem, an effective and timely flood forecast-
and livestock, provision of food and fodder, and help in mov- ing are needed thus enabling households to take necessary pre-
ing family and livestock from the flood site (Fig. 7b). cautionary measure in reducing flooding losses. Moreover,
Furthermore, the percentage of respondents unable to benefit streamlining community-based collective actions along with in-
from each of these measures was more than 50% except for formation dissemination and awareness campaigns through or-
getting feed and fodder for livestock from the community ganizing interest groups are thought to foster preparedness thus
members such as relatives, friends, and other community leading to mitigation of flood losses. The current system of
groups. It implies that a specific household obtaining one type awarding compensation solely based on damages may not be
of support from community might have been unable to secure appropriate and a need-based appraisal of compensations has to
the other one. The percentage of households who could not be in place. This is due to the fact that the groups with medium
get any kind of community support is almost negligible and lower damages seem to resort to aggressive measures such
(around only 6%). Nevertheless, the social support from with- as cutting down food consumption to a significant extent mainly
in the community is helpful in facilitating livelihood as well as because they are unable to realize a fair compensation package
faster recovery in the aftermath of a disastrous event such as in relation to their coping capacity comapared with higher dam-
flooding (Berman et al. 2015). age group who also exhibit increased coping capicity in most
cases. The need-based support may also discourage the disrup-
tion of children’s education in the aftermath of flood, which is
Conclusions and policy implications more prevalent among groups with medium flood damage.
Provision of sufficient food in time to the affected population
In this study, we deliberated how farm households manage to may avoid detrimental effects on health and social capital. The
mitigate flood risk before its onset and how they cope after provision of livelihood diversification opportunities may also
experiencing a disastrous flood event. By using a principal help prevent flood victims from opting disinvestment strategies
component analysis, we constructed a uniform index of socio- in the longer run. This highlights the need of continuous support
economic and psychological flood damages in order to ana- for sufficiently long-term to develop resilience against future
lyze the impact of various household-based and group-based flood events. Nevertheless, further research on the nature and
characteristics and actions on overall flood damage index. type of strategies for specific location or specific groups is need-
Results point towards the effectiveness of many individual ed to understand how to streamline social capital, community
and group-based characteristics and strategies in mitigating knowledge, government-level actions, and household resources
flood losses. Preparedness measures such as elevating house to avoid potential flood damages and increase resilience to such
and evaluating the nature and extent of flooding problem be- catastrophic events in developing countries like Pakistan.
fore moving to the current location significantly reduce flood
damages. On the other hand, voting candidates who have a Acknowledgments The logistic support from Leibniz Centre for
Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) is highly acknowledged. The
clear and succinct flood-control agenda, organizing grassroots
valuable comments and suggestions by three anonymous reviewers are
interest groups, and signing petitions and memos had signifi- also duly acknowledged as they have substantially helped in improving
cant impact on reducing flood damage. the earlier version of this paper.
After experiencing the flood hazard, major coping strate-
gies included securing compensation from the government as Funding information This research was funded by Higher Education
Commission of Pakistan and German Academic Exchange Service
well as some livelihood and agricultural diversification strat-
(DAAD) while the funds for field survey were granted by Stiftung Fiat
egies and capital disinvestment strategies. Drawing on sav- Panis, Germany.
ings, selling wheat and livestock are by far the most popular
disinvestment strategies whereas selling jewelry, selling land,
renting-out or mortgaging land, and disrupting children’s ed-
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