Y-Values: Regression Analysis Table 5.1 Monthly Sales and Print Cost

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Regression Analysis

Table 5.1 Monthly Sales and Print Cost

Month (this year) TV Ad ($000) Sales ($000)


January 3 20
February 13 38
March 6 21
April 4 26
May 12 36
June 5 29
July 9 32
August 8 25
September 7 30
October 10 44
November 14 47
December 11 40

Step 1. Determine if there is a linear relationship of two variables on a graph.


1. Plot the points on the graph with TV ad on the x-axis and sales on the y-axis.
2. Draw the trend line. There seems to be a linear trend. Thus, we can use regression analysis to
determine the relationship of the variables.

Y-Values
50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Step 2. Determine the coefficients of the regression equation


1. Compute the total figures

∑X =
∑Y =
2. Determine the number of periods
n =
3. Compute the average figures.
X −¿¿ = ∑X /n
4. Compute ( X - X −¿¿) and the total
−¿¿
(X- X ) =
5. Compute ( X - X −¿¿)( Y - Y −¿ ¿) and the total

6. Compute the slope of the regression line, b 1


b1 = ∑ ¿¿/ ∑ ¿¿
7. Compute the y-intercept , b 0
b0 =Y - b 1 X
−¿ ¿ −¿¿

Thus, the regression formula is

Table 5.2 Coefficient of the Linear Equation

−¿¿ −¿¿
Period X Y (X- X ) (X- X )( Y -
−¿ ¿
Y )
1 3 20 -5.5 67.82
2 13 38 4.5 28.49
3 6 21 -2.5 28.33
4 4 26 -4.5 28.49
5 12 36 3.5 15.16
6 5 29 -3.5 11.66
7 9 32 0.5 0.17
8 8 25 -0.5 3.67
9 2 30 -1.5 3.50
10 10 44 1.5 17.5
11 14 47 5.5 80.67
12 11 40 2.5 19.17
Total 102 388 0 304.67
Average values Coefficients
Period (n) 12 12 b0 29.27
Average 8.5 32.33 b1 0.36

Step 3. Predict the monthly sales when TV ad is between 0 and $19,000 at $1,000 inteval

Table 5.3 with different values of TV Ad Cost


X Y^ X Y^
0 29.27 10 25.67
1 28.71 11 25.31
2 28.55 12 24.95
3 28.19 13 24.59
4 27.83 14 24.23
5 27.47 15 23.87
6 27.11 16 23.51
7 26.75 17 23.15
8 26.39 18 22.79
9 26.03 19 22.43

Example 5.2 Bench Glorietta (II)

Jefferson, the Store Manager of Bench Glorietta Branch in Example 5.1, wants to determine if the
relationship between monthly sales and TV ad cost is significant. He wants to make conclusion at a 5%
level of significant
Is the relationship significant? What is the coefficient of determination?

Table 5.4 Level of Significance

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)


Significance level α 0.05

Step 1. Determine the Pearson correlation coefficient (Table 5.5)


1. Compute the total sales
2. Determine the number of independent variables:
3. Determine the number of periods.
4. Compute the average figure
Y −¿ ¿ = ∑Y / n
5. Compute ¿ ¿:
6. Compute the forecast:
7. Compute ¿ ¿:
8. Compute ¿ ¿
9. Compute the total values
10. Compute the coefficient of determination
11. Compute the coefficient of correlation
12. Compute the sample variance
13. Compute the standard deviation

Table 5.5 Sum of Squares


2 2
X Y (Y - Y −¿ ¿ ¿ Y¿ (Y - Y ¿ ¿2 (Y ¿- Y −¿ ¿ ¿
3 20 105.06 28.19 67.08 17.14
13 38 60.06 24.5 179.83 59.91
6 21 85.56 27.11 37.33 27.25
4 26 18.06 27.8 3.35 20.25
12 36 33.06 24.95 122.10 54.46
5 29 1.56 27.47 2.34 23.62
9 32 3.06 26.05 35.64 39.69
8 25 27.56 26.39 1.9 35.28
2 30 0.06 26.75 10.56 31.14
10 44 189.06 25.67 336 44.36
14 47 280.56 24.23 518.47 65.61
11 40 95.06 25.31 215.80 49.28
Total 898.22 314.52 1530.43 467.99
K 1 SST ∑Y¿ SSE SSR
Average Correlation Deviation
N 12 r2 0.55 s2 1.81
Y 32.33 r 0.74 s 1.34

Step 2. Determine if the relationship is significant (Table 5.6)

1. Determine the degrees of freedom


2. Compute the mean sum of squares
3. 3. Determine the F-statistic:
4. Determine the critical F-value

Table 5.6 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

ANOVA df SS MS α 0.05
Regression 1 467.99 467.99 F 258.56
Residual 10 1530.43 1.81 Fu 0.31
Total 11 1998.42 *App. B F> Fu? YES

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