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Singularity University - SLU17001 Framework-for-Leading - Ebook-4c
Singularity University - SLU17001 Framework-for-Leading - Ebook-4c
for Leading in
Today's World
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A Framework for Leading in Today's World
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Leader as Futurist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Leader as Innovator. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Leader as Technologist. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Leader as Impact-Driver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Acknowledgement
SU faculty member Lisa Kay Solomon developed a series of articles
envisioning a new model of leadership in a rapidly changing world.
What follows is a compilation of those original articles expounding on
these exciting concepts.
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for Leading in
Today's World
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A Framework for Leading in Today's World
Technological, environmental, and political Once these high-impact variables are identified
changes will likely disrupt your business. and prioritized, futurists gather diverse inputs to
How can you prepare for a different and even establish a range of how the variables are likely
unimaginable world that will arrive faster to play out over time. The further ahead they go,
than projected? the wider the range of possibilities.
This is where methods commonly employed by Futurists call this the cone of possibilities and
futurists can help you strengthen your plans. carefully organize their forecasts into four
Disciplined methods of strategic foresight buckets.
systematically scan, analyze, probe, and project
• WHAT ARE POSSIBLE FUTURES?
the future beyond what we intuitively think
This is the full range of events that could unfold.
might be possible.
• WHAT ARE PLAUSIBLE FUTURES?
How to See Ahead Like a Futurist This is what we believe is possible but unlikely.
Start by identifying the most important and • WHAT ARE PROBABLE FUTURES?
uncertain macro forces shaping your business. This is what’s most likely to happen.
These can usually be divided into five broad • WHAT ARE PREFERRED FUTURES?
categories: social, technological, economic, This is what we want to happen.
environmental, and political.
Although these futures stem from a common set
of identified variables, the derived outcomes are
significantly different.
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A Framework for Leading in Today's World
Backcasting is the act of imagining a preferred Like forecasting, backcasting can be improved
future and then stepping backward toward the by seeking diverse input. For example, consider
present, repeatedly probing what has to happen carving out a few hours in a company-wide
to enable each step. meeting to craft “headlines from the future.”
Just a few hours of collaboration can spark new
Backcasting is anchored in an aspirational thinking and ignite fresh ideas. Such exercises
future state rather than being constrained by can also fuel interdisciplinary engagement and
limitations of the current state. This method encourage a sense of collective responsibility.
allows people to create their own richly detailed
stories of the future and leads naturally to the Don’t be afraid to get creative and even ditch
discussion: “How can our product/service the PowerPoint slides. Lowe’s Innovation
do that?” Labs’ director Kyle Nel uses narrative-driven
innovation to imagine new futures. To jumpstart
To dream up bold, new possibilities, try his efforts, Nel brought in science fiction writers
imagining an outcome 10 times better, cheaper, and illustrators to create comic books that
or more impactful than what exists today. What showcased possible alternatives stretching far
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A Framework for Leading in Today's World
beyond smaller, incremental changes, helping Yet, many businesses still focus primarily on
the company’s leadership concretely imagine and getting existing products to market faster while
visualize the Lowe’s store of the future. reducing costs and increasing margins. The
underlying strategic bet is placed on certainty
Getting Comfortable With Ambiguity by minimizing variability. If these approaches
One of the most challenging aspects of are successful, the focus is on defending and
practicing the skills of a futurist is getting expanding what exists rather than exploring
comfortable with the reality that we simply new opportunities through ongoing discovery.
cannot predict the future. For many senior All too often, this results in missing a deep
leaders, this is deeply unsettling. How can we understanding of the person on the other side of
possibly make big bets on the future without all the transaction.
the facts and data?
When leaders embrace their role as innovators,
Most of us are uncomfortable with ambiguity they realize they must always be thinking
and uncertainty. Boldly looking ahead elicits about the customer. They use human-centered
doubt, fear, and anxiety—emotions we’d rather processes, such as observation and questioning,
hold in check. We can learn to overcome our to collect insights; they use visual thinking and
discomfort with the unknown, and even begin to storytelling skills to share hypotheses and ideas
revel in it, by continuously pushing ourselves to quickly and effectively; and they embrace a
learn new things and seek out new experiences growth mindset to test and gather evidence on
and people. what they’ve learned.
We are all capable of becoming better futurists. Rigorous innovators do this continually, iterating
In doing so, we not only architect hope of new over and over to uncover opportunities obscured
possibilities, but we also build more flexible, by the fog of uncertainty.
adaptive, and resilient organizations in
the process. Innovation at Amazon
Jeff Bezos is arguably one of our most innovative
leaders. He is a great example of a leader who
imagines possible new futures and has created
LEADER AS INNOVATOR
an organization that puts as much discipline into
How Leaders Can Make innovating as it does into bringing those new
Innovation Everyone’s Day Job ideas to life.
In addition to imagining a range of new futures,
leaders must also act as innovators, discovering In the 20-plus years Amazon has been in business,
new ideas through creative ideation and rigorous Bezos has entered and disrupted multiple
experimentation. These days, great product ideas industries—retail and technology infrastructure,
can come from a single tweet or a surprising for example—pioneering new business models
customer interaction and be tested with a that make competition irrelevant.
working prototype in a matter of hours.
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"The success that comes with executing what Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella believes instilling
we know and what we've historically done is a culture of discovery is critical to the company’s
exactly what prevents us from seeing what's future success. After taking the reins at
next." —Lisa Kay Solomon Microsoft, he endorsed the importance of a
“growth mindset,” emphasizing learning from
Innovation Starts others and from our own mistakes to move
with the Right Mindset quickly and find the right path forward.
Successful innovators know that bringing
something new to life—something of value that At the heart of a discovery mindset is the
creates positive impact for customers, partners, willingness to ask different questions. In his
or communities—requires a mindset focused on research for his book, A More Beautiful Question,
discovery of the unknown, not on execution of author Warren Berger studied hundreds of
the existing. innovative companies and found the original
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A Framework for Leading in Today's World
idea often came from asking divergent questions “Management’s job is not to prevent risk but
that “are ambitious and yet actionable, capable of to build the capability to recover when failures
shifting the way we think about something and to occur. It must be safe to tell the truth. We must
serve as a catalyst for change.” constantly challenge all of our assumptions
and search for the flaws that could destroy
Mindset is important. But you don’t magically our culture.”
shift a whole organization’s mindset overnight.
Thinking like an innovator has to become part of As Catmull notes, a culture of innovation starts
the culture. at the top. Leaders have to embrace it first and
then work tirelessly to protect, nurture, and
Innovation Requires Investing reward innovative behavior.
in Culture
In his book The Geography of Genius, Eric Once innovation is baked into your culture, you
Weiner explores why some cities were more can get down to work. But you still won’t get
creative and productive in certain moments of wildly creative and useful ideas without setting a
history than others. few ground rules.
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But those legal battles pale in comparison to the As music was digitized, hard copies began to go
ethical battles we may soon face when workers in out of style, and sales and revenue declined.
large industries, such as food or transportation,
Tower first filed for bankruptcy in 2004 and again
are replaced by autonomous systems. We’ve hardly
(for the last time) in 2006. The internet wasn’t the
begun to explore the implications of a future
only reason for Tower’s demise. Mismanagement
in which genetic modifications have become
and price competition from electronics retailers
significantly more accessible and widespread.
like Best Buy also played a part. Still, today, the
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about what technologies they are using or believe we’ve only just begun to understand the
excited about. Consider going on a field trip with implications.
them to see how they use technology in different
aspects of their lives. Invite the seasoned Even as we begin to embrace disruptive change
executives on your team to explore long-term in one technology arena, far more exciting
“reverse mentoring” with someone who can possibilities unfold when we explore how
expose them to the latest technology and teach multiple arenas are converging.
them to use it.
Artificial intelligence and big data are great
Whatever your strategy, the goal should be to examples. As Hod Lipson, professor of
develop a healthy obsession with technology. Mechanical Engineering and Data Science
at Columbia University and co-author of
By exploring fresh perspectives outside Driverless: Intelligent Cars and The Road Ahead,
traditional work environments and then giving says, “AI is the engine, but big data is the fuel.
ourselves permission to see how these new ideas They need each other.”
might influence existing products and strategies,
we have a chance to be ready for what we’re not This convergence paired with an accelerating
ready for, which is likely to be right around pace makes for surprising applications.
the corner.
To keep his research lab agile and open to new
Estimate the Pace of Progress uses of advancing technologies, Lipson routinely
asks his PhD students, “How might AI disrupt
The next step is forecasting when a technology
this industry?” to prompt development of
will mature.
applications across a wide spectrum of sectors
One of the most challenging aspects of the from healthcare to agriculture to food delivery.
changes underway is that in many technology
Explore the Consequences
arenas, we are quickly moving from a linear
to an exponential pace. It is hard enough to New technology inevitably gives rise to new
envision what is needed in an industry buffeted ethical, social, and moral questions that we have
by progress that is changing 10% per year, but never faced before. Rather than bury our heads
what happens when technological progress in the sand, as leaders we must explore the full
doubles annually? That is another world range of potential consequences of whatever is
altogether. underway or still to come.
This kind of change can be deceiving. For We can add AI to kids’ toys, like Mattel’s
example, machine learning and big data are Hello Barbie or use cutting-edge gene editing
finally reaching critical momentum after more technology like CRISPR-Cas9 to select for
than twenty years of being right around the preferred gene sequences beyond basic health.
corner. The advances in applications like speech But just because we can do something doesn’t
and image recognition that we’ve seen in recent mean we should.
years dwarf what came before, and many
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Take time to listen to skeptics and understand organization to make the most of the
the risks posed by technology. opportunity. Simply recognizing disruption
isn’t enough.
Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak,
Bill Gates, and other well-known names in Take today’s struggling brick-and-mortar retail
science and technology have expressed concern business. Online shopping isn’t new. Amazon
in the media and via open letters about the isn’t a plucky startup. Both have been changing
risks posed by AI. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella how we buy stuff for years. And yet many who
has even argued tech companies shouldn’t still own and operate physical stores are now on
build artificial intelligence systems that will the brink of bankruptcy.
replace people rather than making them more
productive. There’s hope though. Netflix began as a DVD
delivery service in the 1990s but quickly realized
Exploring unintended consequences goes its core business didn’t have staying power. It
beyond having a Plan B for when something would have been laughable to stream movies
goes wrong. It requires broadening our view of when Netflix was founded. Still, computers and
what we’re responsible for. Beyond customers, bandwidth were advancing fast. In 2007, the
shareholders, and the bottom line, we should company added streaming to its subscription.
understand how our decisions may impact Even then it wasn’t a totally compelling product.
employees, communities, the environment, our
broader industry, and even our competitors. But Netflix clearly saw a streaming future would
likely end their DVD business.
The inconvenience of mitigating these risks
now is far better than the alternative. Create In recent years, faster connection speeds, a
forums to listen to and value voices outside of growing content library, and the company’s
the boardroom and C-Suite. Seek out naysayers, entrance into original programming have given
ethicists, community leaders, wise elders, and Netflix streaming the upper hand over DVDs.
even neophytes—those who may not share your Since 2011, DVD subscriptions have steadily
preconceived notions of right and wrong or your declined. Yet the company itself is doing fine.
view of your role in the larger world. Why? It anticipated the shift to streaming and
acted on it.
The question isn’t: If we build it, will they come?
It’s now: If we can build it, should we? Never Stop Looking
for the Next Big Thing
Adopt New Technologies Technology is and will increasingly be a driver of
and Shift Course disruption, destabilizing entrenched businesses
The last step is hardest. Once you’ve identified and entire industries while also creating new
a technology (or technologies) as a potential markets and value not yet imagined.
disruptor and understand the implications,
you need to figure out how to evolve your When faced with the rapidly accelerating pace
of change, many companies still default to old
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A Framework for Leading in Today's World
models and established practices. Leading like a universal high-speed internet, or when drones
technologist requires vigilant understanding of deliver medical supplies after natural disasters,
potential sources of disruption and constantly we can start to imagine a world where the
exploring what might make your company’s ultimate resource technology amplifies is our
offering obsolete. The answers may not always ability to enhance all of mankind.
be perfectly clear. What’s most important is
relentlessly seeking them. Think Beyond Your Organization
In February 2017, Facebook founder and CEO
Mark Zuckerberg posted a public manifesto of
LEADER AS IMPACT-DRIVER nearly 6,000 words to Facebook’s community
of almost 1.9 billion people called “Building
How All Leaders Can Make
a Global Community.” In the opening lines,
the World a Better Place
it becomes readily apparent that the post isn’t
Exponential leaders use the skills and behaviors about a product update or policy change, but
of futurists, innovators, and technologists to rather an exploration of a larger philosophical
improve the lives of the people they touch, question that Zuckerberg courageously poses:
and society as a whole. They aim to do well by “Are we building the world we all want?”
doing good—not as a separate set of “corporate
social responsibility” activities, but as part of the The manifesto was not without controversy,
integrated company mission. but regardless of your interpretation of the
manifesto’s intent, what’s remarkable is that
Leading as an impact-driver can mean explicitly a private sector CEO—someone who is
building a business using technology to create typically laser-focused on growth projections
positive impact. B corporations, like Singularity and shareholder return—has declared a very
University for example, are for-profit companies ambitious aspiration to use the technology
certified to meet rigorous standards of social platform to promote and strengthen a global
and environmental performance, accountability, community.
and transparency. It can also mean investing
in humane policies and practices that create As we enter an era of increasing globalization
a positive culture and a meaningful work and connectivity, what is the responsibility of
environment. leaders, not just ones elected to public office, to
support the betterment of the lives they touch?
Increasingly, technology can also generate How might leaders support the foundational
fundamentally new business models and growth needs of their employees, customers,
opportunities enabling and empowering more investors, and strategic partners—to lead
new parts of the world to become sustainable like a impact-driver?
and autonomous economic centers of growth.
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What does this look like in practice? Mobile Leaders need to assess if they are supporting a
technologies offer significant opportunities to culture conducive to continuous learning and
create positive impact. Apps that use the sensors if they are empowering all employees to learn
and software on your phone for entertainment, from and with each other. As we widen our
everyday productivity, and socializing can use view of what’s possible, the ability of people and
those same sensors to make your phone an technology to solve big problems has never
intelligent aid for the blind, a diagnostic tool been greater.
for doctors in remote areas, or an off-the-shelf
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How the Next Generation CEO Has to Be an In particular, our Program for Exponential
Advocate for Stakeholders, Not Just Shareholders. Leadership can help groom your next
That is, today CEOs need to stand up not just generation of leaders so they’re ready to help
for their shareholders, but their employees, their lead your organization into the future. We
customers, their partners, the community, the guide leaders from all sectors and industries
environment, schools, everybody. Anything to develop exponential leadership, business
that’s a key part of their ecosystem.” models, and innovation practices to propel
their organizations forward. Through content,
There’s More Than One Way community, and a growing number of
to Lead Like an Impact-Driver programs—many of which can be tailored
Leading like an impact-driver is a mindset to specific needs—we help leaders navigate a
and set of practices, not a single, defined rapidly changing landscape.
position. Try asking a simple question as you
make decisions about the direction of your Whether we’re monitoring the latest technology
organization: How does our work positively trends, training an organization’s next generation
impact the world, and can we do better? of leaders, or taking innovation teams through
tailored prototyping sprints or disruption
This shift in view looks beyond only productivity workshops, we can help you see the future of
and profit toward empowerment and shared your industry and empower you to take decisive,
possibility. Equipped with ever-more-powerful bold action.
technologies, capable of both greater harm
and good, leaders need to consider how their "Equipped with ever-more powerful
decisions will make the world a better place. technologies, capable of both greater harm
and good, leaders need to consider how
their decisions will make the world a better
place." —Lisa Kay Solomon
Ready to Dive In?
Enter Singularity University Our Future Needs
A core part of our mission at Singularity Exponential Leaders
University is teaching current and aspiring These roles—futurist, innovator, technologist,
leaders how to embrace new competencies and impact-driver—are interconnected and
required to navigate exponential change. enhanced when knowledge and insights flow
between them. The four pillars are a holistic
As a complement to traditional programs that system of learning to imagine, create, capture,
teach skills like communication, goal-setting, and scale hidden value in an increasingly
and managing teams, Singularity University complex and dynamic world.
empowers leaders with an understanding of
exponential technologies, trends, and emerging This is the essence of exponential leadership.
methodologies for leading in a VUCA world.
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A Framework for Leading in Today's World
By practicing these new skills, all leaders can consider a customized Exponential Technology
improve their capacity to not only anticipate & Strategy Program. And our Disruption
change, but also make proactive choices leading Workshops and Exponential Technology and
to more positive, productive futures for their Startup Radar sprint can help you and your team
organizations, communities, and the world. jumpstart or rev up innovation at your company.
Explore these and other programs and start a
Singularity University serves as your guide to conversation with us!
the future by helping leaders make sense of and
evolve their strategic road map to persevere Not ready or not sure where to start? See if
in an unpredictable world. With a world-class your innovation practices are moving you in
curriculum rooted in futures thinking and the right direction, and get immediate expert
exponential technology, you’ll learn more feedback, by taking our five-minute assessment
than how to avoid disruption. You’ll become at su.org/quiz.
the disrupter.