Credit Policy Review - May 2020
Credit Policy Review - May 2020
Credit Policy Review – May In less than 2 months and in an unscheduled monetary policy meeting, the
2020 RBI announced another fairly steep rate cut along with regulatory measures
to further ease the financing conditions in the domestic economy which has
been severely impacted by the shutdown in the last 2 months. Today’s policy
Contact: announcement was the RBIs second monetary policy review for the fiscal
Madan Sabnavis
Chief Economist year 2020-21.
[email protected]
91-22-6837 4433 The MPC reduced the repo rate by 40 basis points to 4% while maintaining
its accommodative stance. The MSF, bank rate and reverse repo rates which
Authors:
are linked to the repo rate has also been lowered accordingly. The repo rate
Kavita Chacko and reverse repo rate now stands at a near two decadal low.
Senior Economist
[email protected]
The RBI also extended the earlier announced relaxation (announced in the
Dr. Rucha Ranadive last 2 months) for debt servicing and compliances. It also announced
Economist measures to support exports and imports including providing a line of credit
[email protected]
for EXIM banks, increased the group exposure limit and measures to ease
Sushant Hede the stress of state governments.
Associate Economist
[email protected] % May 2020 Change
Repo rate 4.00 ↓
Reverse repo 3.35 ↓
Marginal standing facility 4.25 ↓
Bank rate 4.25 ↓
Mradul Mishra (Media Contact)
Cash reserve ratio 3.00 −
[email protected]
91-22-6837 4424
The MPC took note that the two months of COVID-19 induced lockdown has
had severe ramifications on economic activities and financing conditions
across all segments and this called for an easing in financing conditions and
a reduction in policy rate. While all members of MPC voted for a reduction
in repo rate, 5 were in favour of a cut of 40 bps while one member voted for
a reduction in repo rate by 25 bps.
The MPC stated that there still remains policy space for future actions. The
RBI only gave directional guidance on inflation and economic growth and
refrained from giving any numerical projections amidst high uncertainty
surrounding the pandemic. Though the outlook of inflation is highly
Disclaimer: This report is prepared by CARE Ratings Ltd. uncertain the headline inflation is expected to remain below target in H2.
CARE Ratings has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy
and objectivity while developing this report based on Economic growth is expected to contract in FY21 with prominent downside
information available in public domain. However, neither risks.
the accuracy nor completeness of information contained
in this report is guaranteed. CARE Ratings is not
responsible for any errors or omissions in
analysis/inferences/views or for results obtained from the
We had lowered its GDP growth projections for FY21 to -1.5-1.6% earlier this
use of information contained in this report and especially week in our Report – Road to Recovery.
states that CARE Ratings has no financial liability
whatsoever to the user of this report.
Economics: Credit Policy Review – May 2020
Domestic scenario
• Server impact on domestic economic activities on account of 2 months of nation-wide lockdown
• Depressed rural as well as urban demand.
• Decline in private consumption as well as investment activity
• Sizable contraction in service activities
• Improvement in agriculture and allied - Kharif sowing is higher and Rabi procurement is under progress
• Uptick in retail inflation led by supply shocks in food component
• Abundant systematic liquidity
• Narrowing liquidity premia in various markets segments
• Increase in FDI and FPI inflows in equity segment. Outflows from debt segment
• Sizable foreign exchange reserves
The RBI has given only directional guidance on the inflation trajectory and economic growth due to high uncertainty
surrounding COVID-19 pandemic.
Inflation
• Headline inflation could be below 4% target in Q3 and Q4 FY21.
• Favourable base effect, expectations of gradual relaxation in lockdown, moderation in food inflation, forecast of
normal monsoon, low input costs with subdued metal and raw material prices globally, deficient demand will
dampen inflationary pressures going ahead.
• However, upside to the inflation could emanate from likely firming up of global crude oil prices, persistent supply
dislocations and volatility in financial markets.
• Risk to inflation is anticipated to be short lived. With inflation expected to remain benign there remains a policy
space to address growth concerns.
Economic growth
• MPC noted that the macroeconomic impact is more severe than earlier anticipated. Various sectors are under stress
due to supply disruptions and low demand.
• GDP growth in FY21 is expected to remain in a negative territory
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Economics: Credit Policy Review – May 2020
• Depressed economic activities barring agriculture, expectations of subdued economic activities due to continuation
of social distancing norms post lockdown easing and temporary shortages of labour will weigh on economic growth.
• Gradual revival in activity in H2 with recovery in Q3 and increase in growth momentum in Q4 is expected.
• There is high uncertainty regarding duration of pandemic and thus, downside risks to the economic growth are
significant.
• Easing working capital financing: The lending institutions are permitted to recalculate the “drawing powers” for
working capital financing by reducing the margins till August 31, 2020. The margin requirements are to be
restored to the original level by March 31, 2021.
• Extension of Resolution Timeline: The lending institutions, which have an additional provision of 20% in the case
of large default accounts (for which resolution plan has not been implemented within 210 days), shall exclude
the entire period of moratorium (i.e March 1, 2020 to August 31, 2020) from the calculation of resolution period.
• Limit on Group Exposures under the Large Exposure Framework: The RBI has permitted to increase bank’s
exposure to a group of connected counterparties from 25% to 30% and this limit will be applicable till June
30,2021.
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Economics: Credit Policy Review – May 2020
On the whole the measures of the RBI are extremely supportive of the ‘revival’ process that was sparked by the government
last week with a series of reforms announced. The policy lowers the cost of funds and also points out that the transmission
has been quite satisfactory of late. As activity has come to a virtual standstill companies would still not be able to service
their debt and hence the moratorium has been extended. The same has been done for the earlier announced measures on
working capital limits. All this will provide support to firms in these challenging times. The response of banks and borrowers
would be interesting and determine how quickly the revival takes place. Further we could expect another rate cut during the
year as conditions evolve.