NARGSBOR31Q10

Economic and Market Watch Report
3rd Quarter, 2010
*Click on a County to view economic and real estate information at the county and zip code level
© 2010 Greater Springfield Board of REALTORS®

and NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission in any form is prohibited without written
permission.
Greater Springfield Board of REALTORS®
Economic and Market Watch Report
Our Multiple Listing Service is a means by which authorized Participants make blanket unilateral offers of
compensation to other Participants; by which information is accumulated and disseminated to enable authorized
Participants to prepare appraisals and other valuations of real property, and is a facility for the orderly correlation
and dissemination of listing information among the Participants so that they may better serve their clients and/or
customers and the public.
Index
Local Report
Missouri
Cedar County ............................................................................................................... 1
Christian County ......................................................................................................... 2
Dade County ................................................................................................................. 4
Dallas County ............................................................................................................... 5
Greene County ............................................................................................................. 6
Polk County .................................................................................................................. 8
Webster County ........................................................................................................... 9
Others ........................................................................................................................... 10
Trends ............................................................................................................................................... 12
Chief Economist's Commentary* ................................................................................................... 13
Economic Monitor* ......................................................................................................................... 15
*Reprinted from Real Estate Outlook: Market Trends and Insights. ©2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®.
Used with permission. Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission of this article in any form (electronic media included) is
prohibited without permission. For subscription information please call 1-800-874-6500.
Local Report
Cedar County, MO
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
Employment declined by 83 jobs in August and September. The job losses brought about an increase in
the average monthly unemployment rate from 8.3% in the second quarter to 9.9% for the initial two
months of the third quarter. Layoffs continued to rise, which will weigh buyer confidence and demand in
Cedar County. However, mortgage rates have once again hit record lows, creating a favorable buying
environment for those with a job.
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $106,200 $98,200
# Homes on the Market * 110 121
# Homes Sold ** 15 18
***
# New Homes Built *** NA NA
Avg # of Days on Market 186 136

* Available as of Sep. 30, 2010.
** May not add to total of zip codes.
*** During the first two months of 3rd quarter.
Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010
Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Price Change Average Days
Zip Code Average Price Homes Sold Homes Sold (Sold/
*** on Market
(Quarter) *** List Price)
64744 $34,200 N/A 1 N/A 43 84.5%
65785 $91,400 -12.45% 15 15.38% 135 91.4%
OTHER $181,800 79.47% 2 -50.00% 198 88.0%
*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.
1
Local Report
Christian County, MO
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
Employment declined by 269 jobs in August and September. The job losses brought about an increase
in the average monthly unemployment rate from 7.7% in the second quarter to 7.9% for the initial two
Christian County. However, mortgage rates have once again hit record lows, creating a favorable buying
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $149,300 $160,200
# Homes Sold ** 375 238
***
# New Homes Built *** 31 15


*** on Market
65610 $123,200 17.56% 8 -11.11% 116 92.8%
65629 $81,000 N/A 1 N/A 205 97.0%
65631 $103,100 -8.68% 17 -22.73% 85 95.4%
65669 $110,600 -35.43% 6 100.00% 91 92.7%
65714 $184,500 14.17% 110 -25.68% 83 97.1%
65720 $124,000 327.59% 2 100.00% 24 99.2%
65721 $157,300 6.36% 76 -53.66% 67 96.8%
65753 $91,500 -19.03% 8 -55.56% 113 93.7%
2
Local Report
Christian County, MO

*** on Market
65754 $125,000 N/A 1 N/A 89 96.2%
OTHER $144,100 -12.93% 9 28.57% 112 94.6%
3
Local Report
Dade County, MO
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
Dade County. However, mortgage rates have once again hit record lows, creating a favorable buying
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
# Homes Sold ** 9 3
***


*** on Market
65682 $115,000 40.24% 1 0.00% 14 100.0%
OTHER $47,500 N/A 2 N/A 23 100.0%
4
Local Report
Dallas County, MO
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
Dallas County. However, mortgage rates have once again hit record lows, creating a favorable buying
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
***


*** on Market
65590 $125,000 177.78% 1 0.00% 131 96.2%
65622 $89,900 12.23% 12 50.00% 112 86.6%
65644 $39,800 -44.18% 2 -33.33% 547 91.9%
65685 $40,000 -27.27% 1 0.00% 43 95.2%
65767 $96,000 178.26% 1 -50.00% 24 96.1%
OTHER $160,100 48.65% 5 25.00% 140 97.5%
5
Local Report
Greene County, MO
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
Greene County. However, mortgage rates have once again hit record lows, creating a favorable buying
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $130,400 $137,600
# Homes on the Market * 2,616 2,505
# Homes Sold ** 1,137 724
***
# New Homes Built *** 130 122


*** on Market
65604 $118,200 66.01% 8 100.00% 99 96.7%
65612 $318,000 60.20% 3 50.00% 109 90.9%
65619 $147,500 -7.99% 23 -32.35% 87 96.8%
65648 $174,100 59.43% 13 30.00% 67 94.0%
65738 $119,300 0.59% 66 -38.89% 84 96.8%
65757 $93,200 -11.99% 9 0.00% 150 95.8%
65770 $86,000 -31.03% 7 40.00% 24 98.7%
65781 $122,300 3.21% 26 -31.58% 86 96.1%
6
Local Report
Greene County, MO

*** on Market
65801 $64,000 -20.00% 1 0.00% 181 92.1%
65802 $106,000 -1.40% 106 -42.39% 103 96.6%
65803 $90,500 -3.52% 77 -34.19% 66 96.4%
65804 $152,900 2.27% 127 -7.30% 78 95.6%
65806 $77,400 -16.50% 7 -61.11% 53 94.7%
65807 $114,600 -8.10% 126 -29.21% 75 96.1%
65808 $99,000 N/A 1 N/A 85 99.1%
65809 $237,800 -23.68% 34 21.43% 91 95.7%
65810 $209,700 3.61% 73 -27.00% 106 95.8%
65814 $25,000 N/A 1 N/A 2 100.0%
OTHER $210,400 5.89% 16 0.00% 102 95.1%
7
Local Report
Polk County, MO
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
Polk County. However, mortgage rates have once again hit record lows, creating a favorable buying
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $112,000 $108,000
***


*** on Market
65601 $157,500 N/A 1 N/A 7 98.5%
65613 $114,500 0.97% 32 -33.33% 167 94.7%
65617 $66,800 3.41% 2 -60.00% 113 100.8%
65640 $65,000 N/A 1 N/A 64 86.8%
65663 $43,300 -66.04% 2 100.00% 99 87.6%
65674 $150,000 N/A 2 N/A 158 93.8%
65710 $124,900 6.75% 1 0.00% 127 100.0%
OTHER $82,000 -27.18% 4 -20.00% 109 84.1%
8
Local Report
Webster County, MO
Buyer's Seller's
1 2 3 4 5
Market Market
Labor Market :
Webster County. However, mortgage rates have once again hit record lows, creating a favorable buying
Housing Market :
Q2' 10 Q3' 10 Q4' 10
(Forecast)
Average Price $104,700 $111,500
***


*** on Market
65652 $94,200 -35.87% 5 25.00% 89 97.2%
65706 $109,000 -11.53% 32 -13.51% 75 96.1%
65713 $100,000 -26.20% 2 0.00% 138 95.5%
65742 $127,800 -20.72% 15 -40.00% 67 97.9%
65746 $117,400 7.02% 9 12.50% 99 92.8%
OTHER $99,600 -19.35% 9 28.57% 90 88.0%
9
Local Report
Others

*** on Market
64724 $27,000 -12.90% 1 0.00% 11 100.0%
64744 $30,000 N/A 1 N/A 64 88.5%
64763 $34,000 N/A 1 N/A 147 64.8%
64776 $85,500 N/A 1 N/A 34 98.4%
64856 $143,000 N/A 1 N/A 230 86.0%
64873 $185,000 311.11% 1 0.00% 149 97.9%
65020 $38,000 N/A 1 N/A 38 95.2%
65065 $26,000 N/A 1 N/A 160 74.5%
65536 $79,600 -13.85% 3 -25.00% 66 90.2%
65604 $103,300 -10.95% 3 50.00% 60 89.4%
65605 $78,300 -22.09% 22 29.41% 98 92.5%
65608 $98,700 -6.45% 3 -62.50% 62 99.7%
65610 $65,100 -69.36% 2 0.00% 50 89.8%
65611 $190,000 196.88% 1 0.00% 154 86.4%
65615 $102,000 N/A 1 N/A 31 81.7%
65616 $115,700 26.03% 13 8.33% 99 90.1%
65624 $171,000 -15.97% 1 -50.00% 165 95.1%
65625 $59,000 N/A 1 N/A 77 92.3%
65631 $132,500 -9.56% 2 100.00% 59 98.2%
65632 $42,000 -62.03% 1 0.00% 40 88.1%
65633 $101,500 69.45% 6 -14.29% 227 92.5%
65636 $214,000 N/A 1 N/A 53 93.1%
65653 $81,700 2.13% 4 300.00% 47 95.9%
65656 $75,300 -41.67% 4 100.00% 71 86.9%
65658 $175,000 514.04% 1 0.00% 77 97.3%
65668 $90,800 39.26% 5 66.67% 196 89.4%
65672 $174,200 -65.09% 3 200.00% 112 91.8%
65681 $239,000 N/A 1 N/A 333 100.0%
65686 $228,000 181.48% 2 0.00% 439 100.0%
65704 $135,000 40.63% 3 -57.14% 321 94.0%
65705 $92,600 9.07% 4 -55.56% 241 88.5%
65708 $128,100 34.00% 13 0.00% 158 95.4%
65711 $55,800 81.17% 3 50.00% 117 83.5%
65712 $100,200 -4.66% 16 -30.43% 82 96.3%
10
Local Report
Others

*** on Market
65714 $263,000 -1.02% 2 -60.00% 64 94.8%
65724 $79,900 -17.63% 7 75.00% 49 91.6%
65732 $60,000 N/A 1 N/A 357 92.4%
65737 $189,800 142.40% 8 300.00% 138 96.8%
65739 $125,000 38.89% 1 0.00% 42 96.2%
65740 $36,000 -64.00% 2 100.00% 27 97.8%
65747 $35,300 N/A 2 N/A 114 73.5%
65756 $118,500 89.60% 1 -50.00% 161 94.8%
65767 $32,500 N/A 2 N/A 47 76.7%
65769 $28,000 -60.56% 1 0.00% 66 100.0%
65771 $249,900 -9.95% 1 -50.00% 15 96.2%
65779 $80,600 -8.30% 4 -33.33% 213 83.9%
11
TR
RENDS
P
Pricing D
During tthe Postt‐Creditt Hango
over
Byy Ken Fears
M
Manager, Regional Economics

Th he tax credit hhad a robust impact on the national ho ousing markett. Sales surgeed in April and d maintained d this
momentum in May, draggin
m ng inventoriess lower and stabilizing pricces. This was an importantt shift in the m market.
Ho owever, July’s 25.3% drop p in national yyear‐over‐year sales volum me sent many would‐be bu uyers, sellers, and
REEALTORS® alike into a pan nic.
Th he gap in year‐over‐year
saales eased in A August, but
thhat gap persissts. The
ovverhang of su upply relative
deemand has given some
would‐be buye ers pause and d
fillled sellers wiith anxiety
ab bout prices.

Th he national mmedian home
prrice was stabiile from April
thhrough Augusst, but stumblled
aggain in Septem mber falling
2.4%. Locally, the average
ho ome price in tthe area
coovered by the e Greater
Sp pringfield Boaard of REALTO ORS® was 3.3% higher in September of this year than in Septemb ber of 2009. TThis gap
increased from m July of this yyear. Remem mber that hom me prices tendd to rise durin ng the summer as familiess move and
bu uy homes, wh hich are large er on average. Consequently, it is best tto compare h home prices from the samee period a
yeear earlier in oorder to illumminate the tru ue price trendd.

Days on Marke
D et Home pricees only tell paart of the story, though. TThe
3Rd Quarter 3Rd Quarter average prrice concessio on in the areaa covered by tthe
2009 2010 Greater Sppringfield Board of REALTO ORS® increaseed from
Concession n Less 9.7% in Jul y to 10.6% in
n September. This expansion of the
than 5%
42.3 51.4
ratio suggeests that hom
me prices mayy track downw ward this
Concession n Greater fall.
than 5%
107.2 117.6
Att the transacttion level, maany REALTORSS® report to NAR a growinng divide betw ween buyers and sellers and
diifficulty bridging that gap. Locally, the sshare of hom me sales with aa concession of greater than 5% rose during the
3rrd quarter of 22010 compare ed to the sam
me period in 2 2009. At Sh
hare of Total SSales
thhe same time the average number of daays on market for 3Rdd Quarter 3Rd Quarter
rd
ho omes that solld in the 3 quarter of 201 10 with a conccession 20
009 2
2010
grreater than 5% % was more tthan during the 3rd quarter of 2009. Concession Less
Th he increase inn both the dayys on market and the sharre of sales than 5% 5
52.7% 40.0%
with large conccessions sugggests that sellers must be m more Concession Greater
reeceptive to re e‐pricing to move their hom mes. than 5%
4
47.2% 60.0%

Th he tax credit bbrought many buyers to th he table, but may also havve fed a buyerr backlash wh hen it was takken away.
Inn some areas, this backlash h has pushed buyers and sellers apart. The upward trend in pricee concession suggests
thhat sellers maay need to low wer their expe ectations for the sale pricee in order to b
be ready for ssuccessful neegotiations.
11
Economist’s Commentary

Inflation or Deflation?
by Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
How low can we go? We saw another historic low in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as the average rate
touched 4.3 percent recently. The low rates are certainly welcome in this current post homebuyer tax
credit environment to entice more buyers into the market.
Mortgage rates are exceptionally low right now for a couple of reasons. One is low inflation. Another
reason: the Federal Reserve recently announced it may again start purchasing longterm bonds – which
may include mortgage backed securities (MBSs). Even if MBSs are not included in the Fed’s repurchase
program and it instead focuses only on government bonds, the bottom line impact will be roughly the
same: such action will lower rates for any long-term borrowing. Because the bond market nearly always
prices-in new information quickly, there may not be any downward movement on rates when the Fed
actually does purchase bonds at later date. That is, from a practical point of view, the rate may have
already reached the bottom. It is possible for rates to still go lower from this point onward, but more likely
than not the rates will go higher. The path and the pace of change will be strongly influenced by changes
in consumer prices.
With so high an unemployment rate (in September it was 9.6 percent), there is not likely to be any wage
and inflationary pressure, some say. Hence we can expect a continuing low interest-rate environment for
quite some time. If anything, we should focus heavily on avoiding deflation – a condition of generally
declining prices. Deflation could lead to us into 20 years of Japanese-economy-style stagnation. Recall if
you will that Japan recovered from its utter destruction after World War II (yes, with the help of an
“administering” U.S. presence and support). The Japanese economy took off. The country became so
wealthy that its citizens started buying property (including land) all over Hawaii and trophy buildings
across the mainland U.S. in the 1980s. Then came deflation in the early 1990s. All that progress suddenly
halted as if the Japanese economy smacked into a brick wall.
With that historical example in their minds, some policymakers are likewise – and perhaps rightly – very
concerned about deflation and the possible accompanying future lost decades. After a slight CPI decline
in 2009, the Federal Reserve opened the monetary spigot to avoid such a deflation scenario in the U.S.
Some calm and economic growth returned. But our economy has been showing fresh signs of sputtering.
Officials at the Fed have recently hinted at another opening of the monetary spigot via purchasing bonds
– with freshly printed money.
But wait a second. Can a society’s standard of living improve simply by printing money? Is there a free
lunch? Doesn’t too much paper money eventually lead to too high a rate of inflation? The data is mixed.
Let’s take a look.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2 percent from August 2009 to August 2010. The more carefully
watched core CPI figure which excludes the volatile energy and food components showed a tamer
inflation rate of 1.0 percent. That is the lowest core CPI in more than 50 years. A key reason for this
historic low core inflation rate has been tame housing rent growth over the past two years. If the housing
rent component of the CPI – which accounts for nearly 30 percent of the “weight” of the CPI basket) were
to pick up, then overall CPI would also surely rise. Rent for residential housing slid ever so slightly over
the past two years to June of 2010 before starting to rise in the past two months. In fact, several
apartments in the Washington D.C. region raised rents by 10 to 20 percent recently. While the D.C. area
is no doubt unique (it has little employment troubles, especially compared to other markets), but if such a
rent growth trend was to spread to many parts of the country then alarmingly high inflation will be with us
– and likely for quite some time.
In addition to a slight upturn in the housing rent component, some of the pipeline inflation measures have
also been rising. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final products rose by 3.0 percent in the past 12
months. PPI for intermediate products rose by 5.0 percent. PPI at the very early stage of production, for
the crude goods, rose by a whopping 18.2 percent. Some commodity prices are rising as well. Wheat and
12
Economist’s Commentary

raw coffee prices have spiked. Oil prices at $80 or so are not low by any means. And gold prices are at
record highs. The U.S. government is also verbally trying to convince China to strengthen its currency,
which by reverse means a weakening of the dollar. A weaker dollar also translates into higher import
prices, which also add to the inflationary pressure. If rising PPI, commodity prices, and weaker dollar
steadily begin to impact CPI to turn upward, then the Federal Reserve will have no choice other than to
raise interest rates or lose the effectiveness of the monetary policy.
My sense is that CPI inflation has already hit its low point and will rise. But the rise, hopefully, will be slight
and gradual. Mortgage rates can then also rise gradually and not alarmingly. Our baseline forecast is for
the 30-year fixed rate to hit 5 percent – but not until the middle of 2011 at the earliest.
By that time, the economy should have added one million additional jobs -- on top of the 700,000 private
sector job creations from January to September of this year. That pace of job creation is not robust, but it
is still a sign of healing and a move in the right direction.
Mortgage rates at near 5 percent (still amazingly attractive) and some job creation should be enough to
help home sales rise above a 5 million unit annualized pace by the spring of 2011. This sales pace will
still be subpar, barely matching the sales activity of 10 years ago when there were 30 million fewer people
living in the U.S. But it will be adequate to keep home prices essentially stable.
Under an alternative forecast scenario where the CPI rises very fast, mortgage rates will also sharply rise,
perhaps, even to 7 or 8 percent. Homebuyers will clearly be put off. Homeowners, though, may see a
boost in their home values, since real estate values have historically proven to rise in line with inflation. In
such a scenario, oh how sweet it will be for those who locked in mortgage rates at an historic low 4.3
percent and then later experience home price gains while their monthly mortgage payments remain
unchanged.
13
Economic Monitor
This table reflects data available through
July 2, 2010.
Likely Direction
Recent Over the Next Forecast
Monthly Indicator Forecast Six Months
Existing-home sales rose 7.6% in August to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million units. July re-sales figures
were revised upward. Both single-family homes and
condominium sales increased. Home values continue to Aug 2010 4,130 Slow and
stabilize; the national median existing home price was July 2010 3,840 steady recovery
$178,600 in August – an increase of 0.8% from August of Aug 2009 5,100
2009. Sales still remain below par, and despite very attractive
affordability conditions, housing’s recovery will be slow and
gradual due to economic uncertainty.

New home sales registered a seasonally adjusted annual rate
of 288,000 units in August – a level unchanged from July but
Aug 2010 288 Stock market
28.9% below the level a year ago. New home inventory was July 2010 288 wealth helps
down only 1.1% from Aug 2009 405 new home sales
Housing starts improved in August, rising 10.5% from the
Aug 2010 598 Some loosening
previous month to 598,000 units. The bulk of growth in starts
July 2010 541 in construction
remained in the multifamily sector. Housing permits –
generally a reliable indicator of future starts – rose 1.8% to Aug 2009 585 loans will
569,000, with the bulk again in the multifamily segment. provide boost
Housing affordability continues to rise. NAR’s Housing

Aug 2010 168.3
Affordability Index posted a reading of 168.3 in August – up Already at
from July’s index of 162.2 as well as the 161.9 reading a year July 2009 162.2
historic highs
ago. The Index has been above 160 for a full 12 months. Aug 2009 161.9
Mortgage rates The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

continued to post new records lows, as it declined to 4.35% in A higher rate to
September. While this is good news for “well-qualified home Sept 2010 4.35% compensate for a
buyers,” according to NAR’s REALTORS® Confidence Aug 2010 4.43% loss in future
Index many REALTORS® indicate that that banks are more Sept 2009 5.06% purchasing power
reluctant than ever to approve loans even to such qualified of the dollar
mortgage applicants.
Employment The economy shed 95,000 jobs in September –
down from August’s 57,000 lost jobs and worse than most
analysts expected. Private firms actually added 64,000 Sept 2010 -95 Steady upward
payrolls – for a ninth consecutive month of private job Aug 2010 -57 with gyrations
additions – but government payrolls declined by 159,000. 12-month induced by
Sectors posting job gains included health care, leisure and total: +344 Census workers
hospital, and retail. The unemployment rate was unchanged at
9.6%.

Economic Growth The economy grew 1.7% in the second
quarter of this year. This is the third revision of second Slow expansion
quarter GDP growth based on more complete data. The 2010:II +1.7% unless business
inflation measure remained unchanged. Additional data on 2010:I +3.7% spending comes
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) show that 2009:II -0.7% around
consumer spending rose 0.2% from July to August and was
up 1.7% from a year ago.

Notes: All rates are seasonally adjusted. Existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is
shown as month-to-month change in thousands. Sources: NAR, Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Freddie Mac.
14

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Economic and Market Watch Report

3rd Quarter, 2010

© 2010 Greater Springfield Board of REALTORS®

Average Price $106,200 $98,200

# Homes on the Market * 110 121

Avg # of Days on Market 186 136

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $149,300 $160,200

# Homes on the Market * 916 874

# Homes Sold ** 375 238

Avg # of Days on Market 80 81

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $78,100 $70,000

# Homes on the Market * 32 33

Avg # of Days on Market 161 19

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $77,200 $100,900

# Homes on the Market * 168 160

Avg # of Days on Market 98 151

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $130,400 $137,600

# Homes on the Market * 2,616 2,505

# Homes Sold ** 1,137 724

Avg # of Days on Market 71 85

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $112,000 $108,000

# Homes on the Market * 408 385

Avg # of Days on Market 129 149

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Average Price $104,700 $111,500

# Homes on the Market * 389 381

Avg # of Days on Market 106 81

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Data by Zip Codes for Q3 2010

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Total # % Change in # % of Asking Price

Housing affordability continues to rise. NAR’s Housing

Mortgage rates The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

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