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Forecasting Topic 6
Forecasting Topic 6
Multiple Choice
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Question 1.
A repeatable pattern of increases or decreases in demand, depending on periods of time of one year
or less, is a time series pattern called:
A. Trend
B. Cyclical
C. Seasonal
D. Random
Question 2.
Trend
Seasonal
Horizontal
Random
Question 3.
Random
Seasonal
Cyclical
Trend
Question 4.
When deciding what to forecast, which of the following factors are key to an accurate forecast?
Question 5.
A. Delphi method
B. Exponential smoothing
C. Manager opinions
D. Consumer surveys
Question 6.
The change in direction in the pattern of residential building permits may serve as an indicator of
which type of demand pattern?
A. Seasonal
B. Trend
C. Cyclical
D. None of the above
Question 7.
Question 8.
Time series analysis is most effective when used in _______ term forecasts.
A. Indefinite
B. Short
C. Long
D. Medium
Question 9.
Long term is the time horizons used for which of the following decisions?
Question 10.
Judgment methods are least likely to be indicated in which of the following situations?
Data on the weekly sales of room air conditioning units were matched with the average temperature
and calculations produced sample correlation coefficients, r, in the range of -–0.75 and –0.83. Which
of the following statements best express a conclusion that may be drawn from the values of “r”?
Question 12.
Dave’s Bar-B-Q operated a mobile kitchen that serviced construction sites, office buildings, and
public parks. Beginning in June, snow cones were added to the menu. The weekly sales figures for
the previous year are given below. Assuming a weighting of 3,2,1, determine the three-period
weighted moving average forecast for the second week in July.
WEEK June
1 2 3 4 July
1 2 3 4 5 Aug
1 2 3 4
SALES 4 6 4 5 10 8 7 9 12 14 16
5.3
8.2
6.3
7.3
Question 13.
Linear regression was used to develop the slope and intercept values for a forecast equation in Y
(sales volume) and X (customer traffic) using the data below (sales in million dollars; customers in
thousands). Forecast the sales volume when the customer level is 22. a = –0.158; b = 0.131
CUSTOMERS(X) 10 12 16 15 14 17 20
SALE VOLUME(Y) 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.3
2.30
2.06
2.72
2.46
End of Question 13
Question 14.
Dave’s Bar-B-Q operated a mobile kitchen that serviced construction sites, office buildings, and
public parks. Beginning in June, snow cones were added to the menu. The weekly sales figures for
the previous year are given below. Use exponential smoothing, a smoothing coefficient of 0.3, to
forecast demand for the third week of June.
WEEK June 1 2 3 4
SALES 4 6 4 5
4.7
4.0
6.4
5.1
Question 15.
Forecasts of time series patterns that display regularly repeating upward or downward movements
in demand measured in periods of less than one year (hours, days, weeks, months, or quarters) are
accomplished by which of the following methods.
A. Naive method
B. Exponential smoothing with trend method
C. Delphi method
D. Multiplicative seasonal method