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Artko Capital 2019 Q2 Letter
Artko Capital 2019 Q2 Letter
Portfolio Manager
Artko Capital LP
Dear Partner,
For the second calendar quarter of 2019, an average partnership interest in Artko Capital LP returned
15.1% net of fees. At the same time, an investment in the most comparable market indexes—Russell 2000,
Russell Microcap, and the S&P 500—were up 2.1%, 0.9%, and 4.3%, respectively. For the first 6 months of
calendar 2019, an average partnership interest in Artko Capital LP returned 26.9% net of fees, while
investments in the aforementioned market indexes were up 17.0%, 14.2%, and 18.3%, respectively. Our
monthly results and related footnotes are available in the table at the end of this letter. Our results this
quarter came from broad portfolio contributions from Joint Chiropractic, Skyline Champion, NRC Group
Warrants, USA Technologies, Repro Pharma, Spartan Motors, and Research Solutions while continued
pullbacks in Gaia have detracted from the overall performance.
Inception Inception
3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 YTD 1 year 3 year
7/1/2015 Annualized
Artko LP Net 0.5% -27.1% 10.3% 15.1% 26.9% -7.1% 12.1% 59.1% 12.3%
Russell 2000 Index 3.6% -20.2% 14.6% 2.1% 17.0% -3.3% 12.3% 32.0% 7.2%
Russell MicroCap Index 0.8% -22.1% 13.1% 0.9% 14.1% -10.4% 11.2% 20.9% 4.9%
S&P 500 Index 7.6% -13.7% 13.7% 4.3% 18.5% 10.4% 14.2% 54.9% 11.6%
One of the most frequent questions we get as a General Partner of Artko Capital is why we tend to invest
in small and micro capitalization companies. There are many answers to this question, including a goal to
provide an unindexable public securities product for our investors and that studies show the smallest,
most illiquid stocks provide the highest absolute returns; however, the “odd” answer we would like to
focus on in this letter is that, in general, we believe most of our investments should not be public
companies. That is to say, most of our investments would be better off in the hands of private or strategic
investors. A big part of our research process is figuring out whether additional “free” optionality exists via
industry dynamics and company specific incentives such as management ownership and tax structures for
value added transactions such as recapitalizations, spin offs or outright sales of the companies at a
premium to bigger players. As a reflection on the process, in the four years since we have launched our
fund approximately 20% of our 30+ investments have undergone some sort of value unlocking
transaction, including last quarter’s merger announcement between NRC Group and US Ecology, a
number with which we are very happy.
We tend to focus on two sources of likely value add through take private transactions: the target
company’s cost structure and the ability of the potential acquirer to reduce costs, and the target’s
strategic value within the industry. For example, our investment in Ecology & Environment (EEI) is
predicated on a potential value add to a strategic acquirer through the possibility of eliminating most of
the SG&A costs which could improve operating margins by over 15%. Another example is the 2017
strategic buyout by Markel of one of our favorite investments, State National Companies (SNC), where
SNC’s unique leadership positions within its insurance segments fit well with Markel’s strategy of focusing
on niche, high Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) insurance products. One of the easiest costs to eliminate
from public companies are public company costs such as board fees, investor relations, exchange fees and
costly audits. Average public company recurring expenses can be close to $2.5mm which often are a
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significant expense relative to the company’s overall cost structure and market capitalization. Our
smallest investment by market capitalization in Acorn Energy (ACFN) - a $10mm market cap company -
has close to $1mm in public company costs annually, or 10% of the market cap, which would be easily
eliminated in any buyout scenario, in addition to ACFN’s significant Net Operating Loss (NOL) tax shield.
In other words, it does not make sense for ACFN to stay public and is why the CEO led and financed rights
offering this past quarter was used to consolidate ACFNs ownership of its main segment, OmniMatrix, to
make it a more attractive target for a number of strategic acquirers.
In the end, it is all about having the right management and ownership incentives otherwise, even the most
lucrative transactions will not happen if management is incentivized to keep the status quo. In another
example, our sale of the USA Technologies (USAT) position from the Core Portfolio, in September 2017
was based on an assessment that despite the obvious fact that the company would be much more
valuable in the hands of a larger, more experienced strategic acquirer within the payments space, the
CEO’s $1mm+ annual salary, miniscule ownership of shares, and obtuse attitude toward shareholders
would preclude any such transactions. Our re-investment late last year at sub $4.00 prices back in USAT
via a smaller Enhanced Portfolio position was based on the assessment that while the company retained
its strategic value, better board oversight, a severely weakened CEO and over $13mm in public company
costs in the last nine months, significantly increased the probability of an eventual sale of the company
relative to the time of our first exit. This past quarter a reputable activist investor, Hudson Executive
Capital, with a history of forcing company sales reported a 12% stake in USAT which contributed to the
doubling of our 4.0% position from late last year. We have taken some gains off the table as a result above
$7.50 and are comfortable with the current 4.0% weighting as we expect the company’s filing of its
financials by September 2019 will result in more calls for outright sale or firing of the mediocre and
entrenched CEO, Stephen Herbert, an event which would lead us to consider making USAT a higher
weighting in the overall portfolio. While we certainly do not expect every transaction that we consider as
part of our thesis to happen, we believe assessing the likelihood of them happening as a core part of our
research process has served our partnership well and we are excited to report that a significant part of
this past quarter’s outperformance was as a result of these assessments.
• Command Center (CCNI) - We added a 10% Core Portfolio position in the $25mm market cap staffing
company that underwent a reverse merger/tender offer transaction in July 2019 with a bigger, more
profitable competitor, Hire Quest - which after the recent close of the transaction took the market
capitalization of the new company close to $80mm. We believe, given the nano cap size of Command
Center, this very lucrative transaction is currently not noticed by the overall market and we expect
significant appreciation to our assessment of fair value in the next few years. We will not try to sugar
coat the economics of the staffing industry as it is a somewhat cyclical and low margin business as
well as certain small red flags with management. However, with our average purchase price of $5.40
implying a $65mm market cap on management guidance for $15mm in EBITDA for 2019 (though we
think will be slightly lower) we believe we are well compensated for the risks at a sub 5.0x EV/EBITDA
purchase price which does not take into consideration the company’s stated goal to convert CCNI’s
branches into franchises.
The combination involves merging Command Center’s 67 owned branches with Hire Quest’s 97
franchised and 1 owned branch. However, the real goal of the transaction is to convert CCNI’s
branches into franchises resulting in de-risking of the business model as well as in a significant cash
inflow from the sale of franchise agreements. Based on our research into Hire Quest’s past franchise
agreements, this can result in additional cash inflows of $20mm to $40mm over the next couple of
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years. While there is currently limited information, we expect the new CCNI led by its founder, Richard
Hermanns with 40% ownership of the new company, to be able to generate over $20mm in EBITDA
within a couple of years, especially with staffing industry performing better during economic
slowdowns at a mid-single digit unemployment numbers. While we do not think that this business
should trade at high double-digit franchise EBITDA multiples we believe a 10-12x EBITDA multiple will
be appropriate, with the aforementioned franchise agreement cash inflows, taking the enterprise
value to over $250mm or over 200% upside from today’s levels. Finally, we will note with curiosity,
the company’s relationship with the strategic partner Dock Square Capital, for up to 12% dilution for
“introduction to customers”, which happens to be Jeb Bush’s family office.
• Joint Chiropractic (JYNT) – We have sold the remaining 6% Core Portfolio position in Joint Chiropractic
at $17.50-$18.50 price levels, resulting in a 200%+ return on this investment. We are still big fans of
the business model and the CEO; however, we felt that the price has gotten ahead of its fundamentals
while an increased risk of potential copycat competition modeling on the success of the Joint’s
chiropractic subscription service model was not reflected in the stock price. We will continue to follow
the company closely and hopefully be able to invest again at much better prices relative to
fundamentals.
• Where Food Comes From (WFCW) – We have exited our 2% Enhanced Portfolio investment in Where
Food Comes From at $1.70-$1.80 price levels, resulting in a 5% loss on the position. WFCF was a slight
disappointment for us in that in the year that we have held it, we just did not see a modicum of
leadership from the management of the company to realize the potential to grow significantly into
the company’s large addressable markets. While we commend the co-founders for their vision to
launch this company and to grow it into a stable food industry mainstay, despite our encouragement
we frustratingly did not see any attempts to capitalize on the growth potential of the company.
Without the growth and the operating leverage upside, the company’s current market capitalization
is probably too richly valued even for an unlikely strategic acquirer and we were happy to exit with a
modest loss. We would be open to having another go at this investment with new leadership or
strategic plan for high growth but for now we felt our capital was better allocated to the
aforementioned new investment.
• Full House Resorts (FLL) – We have exited our 2% Enhanced Portfolio investment in Full House Resorts
at $2.10 price levels, resulting in a 20% gain over the almost four years that we have held it since our
fund’s launch. Full House has been a fun investment in a handful of casinos scattered all over the
United States led by a respected industry veteran, Dan Lee, who has done a fantastic job of turning
around operations, re-financing the balance sheet, and taking on both large and small growth
opportunities. However, we invest in our Enhanced Portfolio positions with the expectation of
significant upside for the risks we take on and unfortunately FLL has not lived up to our expectations
to the point where we felt capital would be better deployed in new opportunities.
• NRC Group 10/18/23 $11.50 Warrants (NRCGW) – In a pleasant surprise, during the last week of the
quarter NRC Group announced a merger with US Ecology, a fantastic high-end waste management
business, resulting in a 100%+ gain from our mid $0.80s cost basis for our 3.5% position which we
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increased throughout the quarter. We think the merger makes excellent sense given the specialized,
high margin nature of the waste disposal business models and footprint of the two companies.
However, we are more excited about the opportunity for the NRCG warrants to be converted into
warrants of the new company, removing most of the SPAC overhang and allowing us to participate in
the significant potential upside of the new company.
Markets do not always give credit to merger situations and often capital structure securities tend to
remain mispriced until the close of the deal. In this particular case, despite the increase in value on
the announcement of the deal, the warrants remain significantly underpriced and we believe are even
more lucrative now than prior to the announcement. As a brief reminder, option values tend to be
split into two buckets: Intrinsic Value, or the value of the option if it were exercised today, i.e. the
difference between current stock price and exercise price; and Time Value, or the price of the option
one pays for instead of purchasing the security outright. The most important component of pricing
the Time Value of the option is the volatility of the underlying security. We believe the new US Ecology
warrants are significantly mispriced on their implied Time Value as well as offer significant near-term
upside on their potential Intrinsic Value.
The warrants are currently fairly priced with NRCG as the underlying security, however, we believe
the Time Value portion of the warrant value is currently mispriced by 30% with ECOL as an underlying
security using the implied volatility of currently outstanding ECOL options. In addition, we believe the
combined company can generate over $300mm in EBITDA in 2020 and, using the company’s and the
industry’s historical median forward EBITDA multiples (as well as a Discounted Cash Flow valuation),
we believe an $80-$90 price for US Ecology is not a very high hurdle, giving an additional implied 200%
to 280% upside from current warrant prices. Additionally, we believe that it would make sense for US
Ecology to buy back the warrants at a premium once the deal closes in the 4 th quarter of 2019, to
prevent an expensive dilution that the warrants would represent – not unlike our previous investment
in the SPAC warrants in Del Taco. In short, despite the significant run up in the original investment
and an almost 7% position in the portfolio we believe the current investment presents us with a
lucrative 10-to-1 risk reward ratio which we will be more than happy to keep at the current proportion
in the partnership’s portfolio. Finally, purely as a parting thought in the spirit of our strategic
consideration discussion we believe our investment in a specialty waste manager Sharps Compliance
(SMED) would represent an excellent strategic addition to the new US Ecology and we would
encourage the managements of the combined companies to consider this addition, as well as the
warrant buyback upon the close of the deal.
• We have continued to successfully deploy small, sub-1% of portfolio capital, amounts into Tesla puts
which have, on a trailing twelve-month basis, contributed approximately 3.5% to overall portfolio
performance including 2% this past quarter as worries about the company’s demand and liquidity
weighed on the stock price during the quarter. We continue to believe that over the long term the
highly overvalued and over leveraged auto manufacturer led by an erratic CEO with a public history
of fraud will face significant demand and profitability headwinds and with properly sized investments
will continue to be a source of profit for our partnership.
In July 2019 the United States set a new record. No, it was not for the longest economic expansion on
record, although that is a pretty good one as well. The record was for having the longest ongoing debate
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on whether the economy is imminently entering a recession, which is now entering its 10th year. We
continue to be concerned about certain pockets of weakness, especially if the bigger global slowdown
spills over into the domestic economy as well as increasing uncertainty with the trade policy by the
executive branch. However, contrary to increasingly louder voices calling for a recession, we do not see
one on the horizon and are expecting a period of slow economic growth while the economy, supported
by lower interest rates, digests global economic uncertainty. We are still seeing strong wage growth, low
inflation, and low unemployment leading to a confident US consumer, long the mainstay of the domestic
economic engine, outperforming the slowdown in domestic manufacturing.
The Russell 2000 and the Russell Microcap remain stubbornly 11% and 17% below their September 2018
highs; however, in keeping up with the investment banking theme of our letter we will note that the
number of U.S. small-cap M&A deals recently hit a 10-year high, with 503 announced for the trailing four
quarters through June 30th, according to Bloomberg data. That is the highest number of deals in the asset
class since before the Financial Crisis. For comparison, there were 334 deals five years ago in the trailing
12-month period ended 6/30/14, and only 269 deals 10 years ago in the trailing one-year period ended
6/30/09 (via Royce Associates).
We are pleased with our portfolio performance so far this year, especially within the Enhanced Portfolio,
and are still seeing strong potential upsides from these levels based on our estimates of fundamental
growth. Small caps (and any international equity class for that matter) continue to be out of favor vs. US
large caps, just as value continues to be out of favor versus growth. As a matter of fact, the ratio of the
SPY price (the S&P 500 Index ETF) to the IWM (the Russell 2000 Index ETF) is near its 10-year maximum.
We have been through this cycle before, and our focus has not changed: finding under-the-radar, high-
probability situations outside of the indexing tide. We have a strong pipeline of potential investments
and will continue to monitor the potential upsides and risk-rewards relative to the rest of our portfolio.
Partnership Updates
We welcomed one new partner to the partnership this quarter, bringing our total to 40 at the end of June.
We are excited about the continued growth in partners and assets under management and - as always -
are thankful for your business.
Our next partnership openings will be August 1, 2019, and September 1, 2019. Please reach out for
updated offering documents and presentations at [email protected] or 415.531.2699.
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Appendix: Performance Statistics Table
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Legal Disclosure
The Partnership’s performance is based on operations during a period of general market growth and
extraordinary market volatility during part of the period, and is not necessarily indicative of results the
Partnership may achieve in the future. In addition, the results are based on the periods as a whole, but
results for individual months or quarters within each period have been more favorable or less favorable
than the average, as the case may be. The foregoing data have been prepared by the General Partner and
have not been compiled, reviewed or audited by an independent accountant and non-year end results
are subject to adjustment.
The results portrayed are for an investor since inception in the Partnership and the results reflect the
reinvestment of dividends and other earnings and the deduction of costs, the management fees charged
to the Partnership and a pro forma reduction of the General Partner’s special profit allocation, if
applicable. The General Partner believes that the comparison of Partnership performance to any single
market index is inappropriate. The Partnership’s portfolio may contain options and other derivative
securities, fixed income investments, may include short sales of securities and margin trading and is not
as diversified as the indices, shown. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index contains 500 industrial,
transportation, utility and financial companies and is generally representative of the large capitalization
US stock market. The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000
Index and is generally representative of the small capitalization U.S. stock market. The Russell Microcap
Index is comprised of the smallest 1,000 securities in the Russell 2000 Index plus the next 1,000 securities
(traded on national exchanges). The Russell Microcap is generally representative of the microcap segment
of the U.S. stock market. All of the indices are unmanaged, market weighted and reflect the reinvestment
of dividends. Due to the differences among the Partnership’s portfolio and the performance of the equity
market indices shown above, however, the General Partner cautions potential investors that no such
index is directly comparable to the investment strategy of the Partnership.
While the General Partner believes that to date the Partnership has been managed with an investment
philosophy and methodology similar to that described in the Partnership’s Offering Circular and to that
which will be used to manage the Partnership in the future, future investments will be made under
different economic conditions and in different securities. Further, the performance discussed herein does
not reflect the General Partner’s performance in all different economic cycles. It should not be assumed
that investors will experience returns in the future, if any, comparable to those discussed above. The
information given above is historic and should not be taken as any indication of future performance. It
should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable, or will equal, the
performance of the securities discussed in this material. Upon request, the General Partner will provide
to you a list of all the recommendations made by it within the past year.
This document is not intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell any securities to any person or
a solicitation of any person of any offer to purchase any securities. Such an offer or solicitation can only
be made by the confidential Offering Circular of the Partnership. This information omits most of the
information material to a decision whether to invest in the Partnership. No person should rely on any
information in this document, but should rely exclusively on the Offering Circular in considering whether
to invest in the Partnership.
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