Project On Urbanization
Project On Urbanization
One of the most complex and nuanced dilemmas of the development process: the phenomenon of
massive and historically unprecedented movements of people from the rural countryside to the
burgeoning cities of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
According to a 2013 UN estimate, by 2050 the world population is expected to reach 9.6 billion
people, and nowhere will population growth be more dramatic than in the cities of the
developing world. Indeed, according to estimates by the UN Population Division, for the first
time in human history, in 2009 globally “the number of people living in urban areas (3.42
billion) had surpassed the number living in rural areas (3.41 billion).” The global urban majority
is now widening with each passing year.1
After reviewing trends and prospects for overall urban population growth, we examine in this
chapter the potential role of cities—both the modern sector and the urban informal sector—in
fostering economic development. We then turn to a well-known theoretical model of rural-urban
labor transfer in the context of rapid growth and high urban unemployment. In the final section,
we evaluate various policy options that governments in developing countries may wish to pursue
in their attempts to moderate the heavy flow of rural-to-urban migration and to ameliorate the
serious unemployment problems that continue to plague their crowded cities. We also examine
how the great potential dynamism and productivity of developing cities can be better harnessed
for rapid and more inclusive economic development.