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Solar Energy: A B C D A B
Solar Energy: A B C D A B
Solar Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/solener
A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Recently, solar energy is considered as the most promising renewable energy source, due to the availability and
Grid-connected PV advancement of the solar technologies. This paper presents an extensive energy, economic and environmental
Performance analysis of 2.04 kWp of polycrystalline (p-Si), 2.04 kWp of monocrystalline (m-Si) and 1.86 kWp of amorphous on
Economic analysis microcrystalline (a-Si/μc-Si) identical PV systems installed on the rooftop of 20 different institutional buildings,
Environmental impact
located in various Moroccan sites. Based on the analysis conducted, annual results are predicted with respect to
hourly meteorological data and performance characteristics of each technology are examined using energetic,
economic and environmental indexes (3E analysis). Daily simulation results were compared with actual recorded
data for one of the geographical site (Meknes city) and good matching between simulated and recorded data has
been achieved to prove its validity. The energetic analysis has shown that poly-Si modules surpassed the mono-Si
and amorphous-Si modules in terms of performance, capacity factor and conversion efficiency. Besides, eco-
nomic analysis has been conducted to determine the discounted payback period and levelized cost of electricity
(LCOE) for 20 Moroccan cities and the results have shown that p-Si, m-Si and a-Si/μc-Si offered the 20-city
average of 17.1, 21.6 and 28.6 years payback period, respectively. Moreover, LCOE has been determined for
each city and the results reveal that p-Si, m-Si and a-Si/μc-Si types PV modules presented the average of 9.02,
10.13 and 12.53 cent€/kWh, respectively. Finally, the environmental analysis has revealed that average of
1.316, 1.286 and 1.051 tons of CO2 per kWp can be reduced by adopting the p-Si, m-Si and a-Si/μc-Si PV modules
in the studied locations. The findings confirm the potential of the examined technologies and elucidate specific
conclusions for the practice of such systems under Morocco’s climate.
⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (A. Allouhi).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.11.060
Received 21 July 2018; Received in revised form 3 November 2018; Accepted 25 November 2018
Available online 08 December 2018
0038-092X/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
The modularity of PV systems allows electricity generation from of meteorological conditions on their efficiency.
solar energy over a wide power range (Sick, 2014). Recently, the cu-
mulative implemented capacity has augmented considerably at an 1.2. Paper scope and organization
average rate of 40% annually (BP). At the end of 2017, new installa-
tions totaling more than 97 GW took global solar PV power generation The current work investigates the performance characteristics of
capacity to nearly 400 GW (Jäger-Waldau, 2017). As of today, the in- three variants of grid-connected PV technologies for 20 different
stalled capacity of PV systems along with the planned 104 GW in 2018 Moroccan cities. The primary goal is to evaluate technically and fi-
is estimated to surpass 500 GW globally (GREENTECHMEDIA). Steady nancially the three different PV technologies under the prevailing
cost decline, performance improvements and market-driven deploy- weather conditions of selected locations. Moreover, the rooftop PV
ment of solar energy technologies worldwide can partly explain this systems are examined from an environmental point of view by quan-
noticeable progress (Singh, 2013). tifying the amount of mitigated CO2 emissions as a result of im-
PV technologies can be sorted from the most prominent to least plementing such systems. Although several studies have been reported
prominent in the market as crystalline silicon (m-Si and p-Si), thin on the performance results of grid-connected PV systems for one given
films, multi-junction cells and concentrating PV (CPV). In 2017, ac- location, the present study has the novelty in terms of performing ex-
cording to Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer tensive energetic analysis of grid-connected PV systems and comparing
Institute for Solar Energy Systems, 2018), silicon PV modules maintain three different technologies operating in various climatic conditions.
the highest portion among the commercialized technologies with a Additionally, this investigation comprises not only performance com-
market share of 95%. On the other hand, all thin film technologies parison in order to provide important technological recommendations,
make only 5% of the total annual production. but also addresses economic and environmental considerations of the
Continuous development and considerable technology progress has investigated systems based on real local market context to establish a
significantly contributed PV’s success as PV efficiency has been con- baseline. Moreover, to the best of the authors' knowledge, it is the first
tinually improved and manufacturing cost has been significantly re- time, that a LCOE map of PV systems is introduced for Morocco. A
duced, reported to be one fifth over the last decade (IEA, 2014; Luo distinctive contribution of this work is reporting as well the perfor-
et al., 2017). mance of amorphous on microcrystalline PV option which is not ex-
PV systems can be classified into grid connected and standalone tensively studied in the open literature, especially under various me-
systems based on their operational and functional requirements. The teorological conditions.
main priority of grid-connected systems is to meet energy requirements The reminder of this work is as follows: Section 2 presents the
and any excess will be injected into the electrical network, and in the adopted methodology along with the examined PV technologies,
case of there is shortage, electricity is extracted from the grid. The grid mathematical formulation used in the assessment study as well as some
acts as a storage system with an unlimited capacity. Grid-connected PV useful retained assumptions in the analysis. Section 3 reports the results
systems start to be erected at all scales and in various zones in the and discussion which contain a detailed validation of the model based
world, principally in countries where legislative frameworks are in on in-site recorded data along with an overall energetic, economic and
hand-to-hand with such options. On the other hand, stand-alone PV environmental assessment of the installed systems. Finally, concluding
systems produce power independently and are more suitable for remote remarks are outlined in Section 4.
locations where there is no or limited access to the electricity, grid
cannot penetrate and there is no other source of energy. These systems 2. Methods and materials
comprise the majority of PV application in remote areas as they often
pose the most cost-effective choice for applications far from the utility This section describes the followed approach to assess the technical,
grid. Standalone systems usually endure inherent drawbacks including financial and environmental feasibility of different PV technologies
low capacity factor, excessive battery prices and limited capacity to operating under various climatic conditions of Morocco. Real mon-
electricity causing the waste of energy excess (Kaundinya et al., 2009; itored experimental data, concerning the period 2016–2017 has been
Kazem et al., 2017). collected and sorted for one of the studied sites, Meknes (Morocco). The
To respond to energy related challenges, Moroccan authorities have first step consists of making a validation between the measurements
engaged in a highly dynamic and ambitious process of developing the and simulation results obtained used PVSYST software. Daily and
renewable energy sector to expand the share of renewable energy monthly energy AC outputs are displayed and relative error is eval-
sources in the energy mix to 42% of total installed capacity in 2020 and uated. Once it is proved that the simulated model is able to describe the
52% in 2030, based fundamentally on solar and wind energy sources electrical behavior of the installed PV systems, then extending the
(Vidican et al., 2013). The technical potential of low voltage electricity analysis to reference cities of Morocco through simulations is in-
grid connected rooftop solar PV in the residential sector of Morocco has vestigated. It is interesting to note that a Typical Meteorological Year
been projected to be approximately 19 GWp by 2030 although eco- has been employed to run the simulations based on hourly values of
nomic potential is estimated to be quarter at around 4.6 GWp (MASEN). ambient temperatures, solar irradiances and wind velocities. Lastly,
In order to harness the identified huge potential of rooftop solar PV, calculated yields have been used to assess the different performance
Morocco aims to select a net-metering approach to incentivize low- indexes. In what follows, the examined PV installations, their im-
voltage grid-connected photovoltaic plants. To implement such a vital plementation areas as well as the mathematical background used in the
project profitably, meticulous assessment of monthly and yearly pro- computation processes are presented.
ductivity of grid-connected PV systems under the prevailing conditions
of Moroccan climate is highly recommended (LOWCARBON- 2.1. PV technologies
DEV-SUPPORT). Therefore, a national project “PROPRE.MA” has been
established by the Faculty of Science Semlalia (Marrakech) and fi- The examined photovoltaic systems have been installed since
nanced by IRESEN in order to build grid-connected PV yield maps for August 2014 in the rooftop of various institutional buildings, located in
the entire country through installing 20 identical roof-top systems in the 20 cities of Morocco (see Table 1). A full monitoring system
partner institutions based in 20 different Moroccan cities (Aarich et al., (weather station, module temperature and DC electrical data mea-
2014). These rooftop units include three grid-connected PV plants using surements) was installed since the second half of 2016.
three different technologies and have been tested since 2012. A per- As stated by the “PROPRE.MA” project, the objective is to illustrate
formance monitoring system has been assembled to detect the perfor- the effect of outdoor climatic parameters on the performance of dif-
mance characteristics of the rooftop PV systems and analyze the effect ferent PV technologies. The rooftop PV systems are grid-connected and
26
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
⎛q V + IR s ⎞ V + IRs
I (V ) = Iph − I0 ⎡
⎢e⎝
nkTNcs ⎠ − 1⎤ −
⎥
⎣ ⎦ Rsh (1)
where I and V stand for corresponding current and voltage of the PV
module, respectively. Moreover, Iph is the photocurrent (A), I0 is the
diode reverse saturation current (A), Rs and Rsh denote the series and
shunt resistances (Ω). q is the electron charge (1.602 × 10−19 C), n is
the diode quality factor (–), T is the module operation temperature (K),
k is the Boltzmann constant (1.381 · 10−23 J/K), and Ncs is the number
of cells in series in the PV module. In the formulation, Iph is changed
with recorded irradiance G (W/m2), reference irradiance G0 and T, and
(a) m-Si modules writes as:
G
Iph = [Iph, STC + γ (T − 298)]
G0 (2)
where Iph, STC is the photocurrent under STC (A) and γ denotes for the
temperature coefficient of short-circuit current (A/K) in the equation.
Else, I0 is supposed to be as a function of T and can be evaluated as:
qEg
⎞ 1 −1 ⎤
I0 = I0, STC ⎛
T 3 ⎡⎢ ⎛ nk
⎜
⎞ e⎣ ⎝
⎟
( )
⎥
⎠ 298 T ⎦
⎝ 298 ⎠ (3)
where I0, STC is the diode reverse saturation current (A) under STC and
Eg is the band-Gap energy of the cell material (eV), respectively.
• The generated power from the PV modules is directly fed into the
internal low-voltage electricity network of considered buildings;
• Prices of PV systems and all additional expenses are taken at the
time when the project was lunched based on Moroccan market data.
The total investment costs are: 3721 €, 4182 € and 4385 € for p-Si,
m-Si and a-Si/μc-Si installations, respectively.
• Project lifetime is taken as T = 25 years;
• Net price of electricity from the grid utility is 0.1 €/kWh
• Annual O&M costs constitute 1% of the total investment cost and are
discounted to the rest of service life of the PV systems
(c) Model validation : a-Si/ c-Si modules • The tax rate is equal to zero due to the Moroccan tax policy con-
cerning renewable energy systems.
•
Fig. 1. Installed PV technologies operating in Meknes city.
Typically investors consider the PV systems at the end of life as an
27
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
Fig. 2. Schematic diagram of installed grid-connected PV system (continuous lines: electric wires, mixed lines: Ethernet wires, dashed lines: Bluetooth wireless
connection) (Aarich et al., 2014).
Table 2 following parameters can help to examine the performance of the in-
PV modules characteristics at STC1. stalled PV systems (Boulaid et al., 2017; Okello et al., 2015; Sharma and
System 1 System 2 System 3
Chandel, 2013; Kymakis et al., 2009):
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A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
Fig. 3. Annual averages of wind speeds and ambient temperatures in selected cities.
LP
It + ∑t = 0 Ot + Mt /(1 + r )t first-year operation (kWh) while d is the degradation rate (%) of the PV
LCOE = LP systems over the specified period. LP is the life cycle of the project
∑t = 0 Et /(1 + r )t (9)
(year), t is the corresponding year, and r is the discount rate (%).
with Reliability and degradation of PV modules are a critical concern to
maintain the operation of PV modules for 25–30 years. Performance
Et = St (1 − d )t (10) degradation of PV modules in site condition is originated from packa-
In the above expressions, It covers the initial investment (€) com- ging materials, semiconductor degradation, and interconnection ribbon
prising construction, erection and additional expenses. Ot and Mt de- and adhesion losses (Rajput et al., 2017). Recently, the degradation rate
scribe the operation and maintenance costs (€) consumed during the of PV panels is reported to be below 1% per year in 78% of cases among
period t, respectively. St denotes the annual energy output during the the 2000 available data. Due to the recent technological advances, the
29
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
Table 4
Comparison between measured and simulated energy productions (kWh).
Monthly energy generation of a-Si/μc-Si Monthly energy generation of m-Si Monthly energy generation of p-Si
Months Measured Predicted Error (%) Measured Predicted Error (%) Measured Predicted Error (%)
January 221.6 244.1 9.20% 266.9 271.9 1.82% 266.0 274 2.90%
February 204.7 222.9 8.13% 244.1 245.3 0.46% 244.0 247.4 1.35%
March 286.4 307.2 6.76% 335.4 336.6 0.33% 336.5 339.9 1.00%
April 292.0 297.8 1.95% 335.2 323.6 3.62% 338.2 326.9 3.46%
May 278.9 303 7.95% 313.9 331 5.15% 317.7 334.7 5.05%
June 318.5 311.6 2.23% 340.7 344 0.95% 353.7 348.7 1.44%
July 301.0 326.6 7.83% 325.9 363.7 10.39% 329.7 369.4 10.74%
August 298.7 321.7 7.13% 321.3 358.3 10.32% 326.4 364.1 10.35%
September 303.4 288.1 5.32% 331.6 319.3 3.88% 330.7 323.7 2.17%
October 249.4 273.2 8.68% 290.4 303.9 4.43% 289.5 307.6 5.85%
November 199.6 237.4 15.91% 232.1 266.2 12.81% 229.1 268.7 14.72%
December 189.0 224.1 15.65% 234.7 252.1 6.87% 231.9 253.9 8.66%
30
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
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A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
Fig. 7. Annual average final yield in selected cities for the compared technologies.
surfaces. It should be remarked that the cause of having slightly more city has the lowest reference yield although producing acceptable final
energy outputs for the p-Si against the m-Si despite having the same yield at the same time. This is probably due to fact that the city itself
rated capacities is the specific temperature coefficient, which is equal to benefits from the cold ambient temperature that positively influences
−0.45%/°C for m-Si modules while it is equal of −0.41%/°C for p-Si the energy output from the PV modules utilizing the same solar irra-
modules. diation level. Yet, the reverse scenario is observed in the case of Nador
The performance ratio, expressing the ratio of final yield to the city that enjoys huge solar potential (high reference yield), on the other
reference yield, has been assessed for each technology and site as the hand, suffers from extremely high ambient temperatures. Moreover, as
results are displayed in Fig. 8. It can be clearly derived from the graph shown in the same figure, overall performance ratio is found to be
that the cities ranking has been changed as they were previously ranked around 81.125% for the crystalline silicon based installations in almost
based on their average final yield annually. Here, the best performance all regions investigated here. Independent of the technology applied, a
ratio is achieved in Casablanca city, with the lowest solar energy po- minimum performance ratio of 77% is attainable in all the selected
tential among others. This result can be attributed to the fact that this cities, which highlights the fact that PV technologies can be utilized
32
A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
Fig. 8. Annual performance ration in selected cities for the compared technologies.
Table 5 Table 6
Yearly capacity factors of the different PV installations. Annual conversion efficiencies for the different PV installations.
Capacity factor Annual conversion efficiency
effectively for electricity generation in Morocco. are also required to be understood in depth for evaluating the potential
The capacity factors and conversion efficiency for each technology of renewable energy systems in substituting conventional counterparts.
and corresponding city are listed in Tables 5 and 6, respectively. The The first financial parameter evaluated is the discounted payback time.
capacity factor is in the range of 19.808–23.475% for the m-Si tech- The results generated by considering market costs at the time of the
nology, 20.014–23.799% for the p-Si technology and 19.659–23.246% project are given in Table 7. The main conclusion that can be drawn
for the a-Si/μc-Si, respectively. The energy conversion efficiencies from the results is that the payback time varies considerably with re-
computed annually varies between 11.966% and 12.7673% for the m-Si spect to the technology. More specifically, the a-Si/μc-Si is character-
technology, 12.145–12.810% for the p-Si technology and ized by the longest discounted payback period of around 38.6 years for
7.603–8.143% for the a-Si/μc-Si, respectively. The best site in terms of Casablanca. Meanwhile, the average DPB for a-Si/μc-Si technology is up
having the highest conversion efficiency is Ouarzazate while the lowest to 28.62 years. The shortest DPB was attained for the p-Si technology
value is attained in Guelmim. Overall, p-Si technology seems to be the that has the lowest investment cost and the best performance at all. For
optimal technology for solar conversion, independent of the location. p-Si technology, the DPB ranges between 14.42 and 19.80 years in
The energy yields and technical performance of PV modules are not Ouarzazate and Casablanca, respectively. The average DPB is higher for
the only parameters considered for decision-making. Economic indices the m-Si in comparison to p-Si by about 26%.
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A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
Table 7 13.75 cent€/kWh, 10.94 cent€/kWh and 9.75 cent€/kWh for a-Si/μc-Si,
Discounted Payback period of the different PV installations. m-Si and p-Si installations, respectively. However, as compared to the
Discounted Payback period (years) unit cost of electricity bought from the grid, one can claim that solar PV
technology is somewhat competitive in sunny Moroccan regions espe-
City m-Si p-Si a-Si/μc-Si cially for the p-Si technologies. Increasingly competitive LCOEs can be
achieved when the cost of PV modules is reduced substantially. In the
Agadir 21.62 17.15 28.68
Benimellal 22.15 17.50 28.98 present study, the sensitivity analysis has been made based on LCOE
Casablanca 25.76 19.81 38.60 and DPB for Meknes by considering progressive cost reductions of PV
Eljadida 21.95 17.37 29.76 technologies up to 30%. As presented in Fig. 10, the results indicate that
Errachidia 18.17 14.74 19.81 the financial competitiveness of considered solar PV technologies can
Fez 22.19 17.53 29.55
be improved significantly when initial investment costs are reduced.
Guelmim 18.78 15.17 22.66
Ifrane 22.96 18.04 30.21 The final set of results quantifies the potential reduction in CO2
Kenitra 22.11 17.48 30.13 emissions by adopting PV power generation technologies in the studied
Marrakech 20.70 16.51 26.32 locations. This potential is evaluated in terms of CO2 emissions per
Meknes 22.84 17.95 30.67
installed capacity (see Table 8). Such information can also serve as a
Mohammedia 23.86 18.62 33.89
Nador 18.90 15.25 22.89
rapid tool to estimate the environmental benefits of installing PV sys-
Ouarzazate 17.72 14.42 21.26 tems at a given location. The quantity of avoided CO2 emissions is
Oujda 21.76 17.24 28.63 strongly dependent on the annual energy generation. Ouarzazate allows
Rabat 23.77 18.56 33.65 the maximum reduction potential in CO2 emission as 1.455 tons of CO2/
Safi 22.06 17.44 29.13
kWp for p-Si technology, 1.409 tons of CO2/kWp for m-Si technology
Settat 18.86 15.23 22.77
Tangier 21.17 16.85 28.12 and 1.138 tons of CO2/kWp for -Si/μc-Si technology, respectively. The
Tetouan 25.18 19.44 36.91 minimum avoided emissions were found to occur in Casablanca just
below 0.963 tons of CO2/kWp.
Fig. 9. Levelized cost of electricity in selected cities for the compared technologies.
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A. Allouhi et al. Solar Energy 178 (2019) 25–36
14 35.00
12 30.00
10 25.00
DPB (years)
LCOE (c€)
8 20.00
6 15.00
4 10.00
2 5.00
LCOE m-Si LCOE p-Si LCOE a-Si/ c-Si
DPB m-Si DPB p-Si DPB a-Si/ c-Si
0 0.00
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Table 8
CO2 mitigation potential in the selected cities for the compared technologies.
• Apart from the payback period, LCOE analysis has proved under the
present circumstances that the p-Si system were the most cost-ef-
Avoided annual emissions of CO2 (tons/kWp) fective solution for solar power generation in Morocco. It was also
concluded that there is a strong correlation between LCOE and solar
City m-Si p-Si a-Si/μc-Si energy resource as the sites offering the lowest LCOE coincide with
the regions that have abundant potential of solar power. Overall,
Agadir 1.278 1.309 1.030
Benimellal 1.264 1.295 1.018
lower PV module costs are translated into competitive LCOEs where
Casablanca 1.189 1.215 0.963 reducing the cost of PV equipment by 30% would mean a significant
Eljadida 1.270 1.300 1.025 reduction in LCOE and payback periods. Finally, environmental
Errachidia 1.390 1.426 1.121 analysis has revealed that the how much CO2 avoided is greatly
Fez 1.263 1.293 1.019
affected by the amount of energy generated with environmentally
Guelmim 1.366 1.402 1.091
Ifrane 1.245 1.274 1.019 friendly PV systems. For instance, the minimum amount of CO2
Kenitra 1.266 1.295 1.022 (below 0.963 tons of CO2/kWp) was mitigated in Casablanca which
Marrakech 1.308 1.336 1.049 presented the least solar energy potential among other sites.
Meknes 1.248 1.277 1.009
Mohammedia 1.225 1.253 0.991
Nador 1.361 1.398 1.084
Acknowledgments
Ouarzazate 1.409 1.445 1.138
Oujda 1.275 1.305 1.031 The support provided by the “Institut de Recherche en Energie
Rabat 1.235 1.263 0.997 Solaire et Energies Nouvelles (IRESEN)” is appreciated by the authors of
Safi 1.267 1.297 1.025
this paper.
Settat 1.363 1.399 1.089
Tangier 1.291 1.321 1.040
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