2020 - Williams Et Al - Talent Identification and Development in Soccer Since The Millennium-Annotated
2020 - Williams Et Al - Talent Identification and Development in Soccer Since The Millennium-Annotated
To cite this article: A. Mark Williams , Paul R. Ford & Barry Drust (2020): Talent identification
and development in soccer since the millennium, Journal of Sports Sciences, DOI:
10.1080/02640414.2020.1766647
Introduction
rates and its commercial growth, as judged by the magnitude
At the turn of the last millennium, the lead author of this article of recent television deals and the increase in player salaries and
wrote a review paper for this journal on talent identification transfer fees, including expansion of the women’s game since
and development in soccer with arguably the founding father the millennium (e.g., Deloitte, Sports Business Group, 2019;
of science and soccer, the late Professor Thomas Reilly. The Fédération Internationale de Football Association [FIFA],
paper was part of a special issue focusing on the same theme, 2007). The identification and development processes have
which subsequently became one of the most cited issues in the become professionalised within the game involving
history of the journal. Williams and Reilly (2000) has been cited a significant investment of resources (e.g., financial, personnel,
over 1,000 times across the intervening 20 years, with several time) by national associations, clubs, coaches, sports scientists,
other articles in the special issue attracting similar citation rates. players, and their families. Thousands of youth players partici
These high citation rates illustrate the substantive growth in pate in systematic training programmes in professional clubs
sports science research over the last two decades and the across the globe (e.g., Ford et al., 2020). Moreover, sports
increased popularity of research related to talent identification science practitioners and support teams typically exist at pro
and development, as well as the fact that soccer remains by far fessional clubs and national associations, particularly in coun
the most popular sport globally. tries were the game is financially well-supported; a distinct
Two decades on it appears an appropriate time to revisit change from the emerging landscape evident in the late
these topics in an effort to ascertain the extent of any progress 1990’s (Drust, 2019; Drust & Green, 2013). Therefore, it is not
that has been made in scientific understanding. Our search of difficult to argue a case that the question of how best to
the literature for this article indicated that the broad topics of identify those players that should be recruited into systematic
talent identification and development have been vibrant training programmes or academies, and how they should be
research areas, judging by the vast number of books (e.g., developed, remain questions of significant interest to scientists,
Baker et al., 2017; Baker & Farrow, 2015; Baker et al., 2012; practitioners, and coaches.
Collins & MacNamara, 2017a; Nesti & Sulley, 2014), systematic The identification and development processes in modern-
reviews (e.g., Johnston et al., 2018; Murr, Feichtinger et al., 2018; day soccer are illustrated in Figure 1. Identification involves
Murr, Raabe et al., 2018; Sarmento et al., 2018), narrative recognising players participating in the sport who have the
reviews (e.g., Baker et al., 2019; Bergkamp et al., 2019; Phillips potential to progress into a high performance development
et al., 2010; Rees et al., 2016; Vaeyens et al., 2008), and empirical programme consisting of a relatively systematic combination
papers that have been published over the last 20 years. of coaching, support, training, and match play designed to
Moreover, soccer continues to flourish in terms of participation progress players (development is also known as talent
CONTACT A. Mark Williams [email protected] Department of Health, Kinesiology, and Recreation, University of Utah, 250 S. 1850 E. RM 200, Salt
Lake City, UT 84112, USA
Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here.
© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
2 A.M. WILLIAMS ET AL.
Figure 1. Key parts of the identification, selection and development process in soccer. The arrows indicate possible player pathways; with heavy dashed lines indicating
interlinked concepts and light dashed lines indicating exit or entry routes.
promotion, Vaeyens et al., 2009). Moreover, detection involves hope that a better understanding could be provided of the
identifying players from outside the game who have the poten prospective value of various predictors and how these may
tial to progress into development programmes in soccer fluctuate over time as a function of player age and exposure
(Williams & Reilly, 2000). Participation involves playing soccer to systematic training. Third, a call was made for more research
at a recreational level and/or informal, playful settings. Selection to be conducted with female players because at the turn of the
refers to the on-going process of choosing players within the millennium insufficient published research existed examining
development programme who demonstrate attributes suitable gender-related differences in identification and development
for progression to a future squad or team, such as next age processes in soccer. Finally, it was argued that scientists and
group team in a youth academy or nation (Williams & Reilly, those involved in player recruitment (e.g., scouts, coaches,
2000). Deselection is the process of removing players from the academy directors) should work together to better identify
development programme who no longer demonstrate the the experiential, often implicit/subjective, criteria that are
attributes to participate in, or to be selected for, future squads used to select one player over another for entry into
or teams. Identification, selection, and deselection decisions a formalised training environment.
occur relatively frequently in professional youth academies We start by reviewing published reports that have
(e.g., Ford et al., 2020; Güllich, 2014). addressed the calls made by Williams and Reilly (2000). We
In light of the large amount of research that now exists on review research that has assessed multiple predictor variables
these themes, as well as the multitude of potential directions using longitudinal and prospective/predictive designs, as well
that a review of these areas could take, we delimit the scope of as studies that have used interviews to investigate the variables
this paper. We focus on the recommendations for future underlying the selection decisions made by scouts and
research presented in the original paper by Williams and coaches.
Reilly (2000) and evaluate progress made in addressing these
suggestions over the last two decades. Moreover, we remain
Multidisciplinary predictors and the long-term selection of
true to the aim of the original paper by considering the role of
youth players
sports science in helping to identify and develop future profes
sional soccer players. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews
Williams and Reilly (2000) proposed several specific areas for and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement guidelines (Moher
future research. First, a call was made to explore the added et al., 2009) to search for literature. Our search protocol is
value of embracing a multidisciplinary approach (rather than detailed in the supplementary material, but in sum we used
mono-disciplinary) to identifying youth players by measuring the Web of Science and SportsDiscus search engines into which
a number of predictor variables across key aspects of perfor we entered the key search terms “talent identification” and
mance. The idea was that such an approach would help explain “soccer” with time limits set between 2000 and 2019. In
a higher proportion of the variance in performance between November 2019, we used this process to locate 27 published
players who progressed to different levels of attainment within reports that had incorporated a multidisciplinary approach
the sport. Second, the added benefits of longitudinal studies using longitudinal and prospective/predictive designs in
over descriptive or cross-sectional research were outlined in the soccer1. Qualitative analyses confirmed these published studies
1
See supplementary material for full list of references.
JOURNAL OF SPORTS SCIENCES 3
> SBJ; faster 5-m sprint; but no diff A, Ph (30-m sprint, CMJ) and Sk (non-soccer
> coach assessment in game; > ball juggling; > achievement goal orientation; >
3 cm taller; 3 kg heavier; 1 mth younger; 1 ml/kg higher VO2; but no diff other
< 1 sec faster dribbling, ball control, agility, sprint and > shooting and motor
(anthropometrical, physiological fitness, psychological, skill, or
Psy, Sk, So > coach rated initial performance level; > goal commitment, coping, seeking
motivation and concentration; > acting in changing situations on TACSIS
~2cm taller; ~2 kg heavier; relatively older; <1 sec faster sprint, agility, ball
Slightly taller; heavier; > max anaerobic power; < 1 sec faster 40-m sprint
sociological). All the published reports assessed talent selection
2 sec faster passing + dribbling; <1 sec faster 30-m sprint and agility; >
Slightly taller and heavier; > interval shuttle run; > hrs per wk practice
as opposed to identification (see Figure 1). A majority of these
papers (n = 17) tracked players from an earlier youth age group
to a later one, while the minority (n = 10) tracked players from
< 1 sec faster agility, dribbling, ball control and > shooting
Key: A = anthropometrical; Ph = physiological fitness; Ps = psychological; Sk = skill; So = sociological; < less than; > greater; * measured at multiple time points across adolescence
were that players who became professionals were in adoles
cence slightly taller, heavier, leaner, fitter, faster and slightly
score
Table 1. In the studies that contained multiple measurement
time points across adolescence (e.g., Le Gall et al., 2010; Leyhr
Table 1. Overview of studies measuring multiple predictor variables in adolescence and tracking players to their adulthood performance level.
Predictor
variables
Ph, Ps, Sk
Ps, Sk,
A, Ph, Sk
A, Ph, Sk
Results
A, Ph
a function of age for all participants. However, those who
So
So
S, Ph
S, Ph
eventually turned professional were slightly superior at the
13,167 Not-pro
and tracked players from an earlier youth age group to a later
vs. 89 Rec
yrs of age
yrs of age
yrs of age
one demonstrate similar findings to those listed in Table 1.
However, a single study from Brazil (Aquino et al., 2017)
age
6-8 yrs
~7 yrs
~6 yrs
10 yrs
15 yrs
~4yrs
4 yrs
5 yrs
assess the combined contribution of the measured predictor
variables to later performance level. For example, Forsman et al.
(2016) measured technical, tactical, physical, and psychological
organisation
Federation +
Federation +
Federation +
Federation
Federation
Federation
Switzerland Federation
predictors at 15 years of age, with several of these measures
Pro
club
club
club
Netherlands Club
Netherlands Club
sional from those that did not reach that level at age 19 years.
Logistic regression analyses demonstrated passing and cross
Country
Germany
Germany
Germany
Finland
France
France
Sample characteristics
M
F
U14 to U16*
U12 to U15*
U12 to U16*
U12
U14
U14
1,134
158
114
161
737
130
117
58
65
N
Deprez et al.
et al. (2019)
Höner et al.
Van Yperen
Leyhr et al.
Leyhr et al.
Reference
(2015)
(2016)
(2017)
(2010)
(2018)
(2019)
(2010)
(2009)
proportion of variance in performance accounted for by differ Hicheur et al., 2017; Höner & Votteler, 2016; Wilson et al., 2016).
ent variables over time, providing a more parsimonious The total motor score in all these studies was greater for U12
approach to evaluating the costs and benefits of different players who were selected to squads in adolescence and to
selection methods. professional status in adulthood when compared to players not
Physical predictors have been assessed most frequently selected. Findings highlight the usefulness of total motor score
when compared to the other predictor categories (25/27 stu prognostics, although there are limitations to this method
dies). Physical variables are clearly important due to the ele including the fact that findings are specific to the population
vated demands of physical activity (both acute within games sample and the design of the test (Höner & Votteler, 2016).
and more chronically across games) that are described at the Psychological and sociological predictors have been
highest level within the sport (Barnes et al., 2014). Physiological assessed in multidisciplinary, longitudinal, prospective studies
measures of speed, endurance, and agility appear useful in least frequently when compared to the other predictor cate
differentiating players, albeit predominantly when using gories (e.g., 7/27 and 4/27 studies, respectively) (see Fransen &
a single time point of measurement. Anthropometric charac Güllich, 2019; Gledhill et al., 2017; Murr, Feichtinger et al., 2018;
teristics, on the other hand, may be limited in their ability to Reeves et al., 2018a). Psychological predictors have been exclu
differentiate successful and unsuccessful players. First, these sively measured in these studies using validated scales. During
observations may merely be reflective of differences in matura adolescence, future professional players have been shown to
tion status between populations at a specific time point be more motivated and concentrated (Forsman et al., 2016), to
(Buchheit & Mendez-Villanueva, 2013). Such differences may have greater goal commitment and to use problem- more than
be a consequence of the relative age effect that continues to emotion-focused coping (Van Yperen, 2009), when compared
be influential in selection strategies (e.g., Brustio et al., 2018; to those players who did not become professionals. Similarly,
Helsen et al., 2012). Second, even though future professional players who did not progress to professional status were stated
players have been shown to be slightly taller, heavier, and in semi-structured interviews of 10 soccer coaches from youth
leaner in adolescence than their non-professional peers (4/6 academies in England to score lower on measures of motiva
studies, Table 1), there are studies that show no difference in tion, commitment, coping and self-regulation compared to
anthropometric measures between these skill groups (2/6 stu those who progressed (Taylor & Collins, 2019). While these
dies in Table 1). Professional players have generally become psychological variables appear to have prognostic value in
slightly taller, heavier, and leaner in the last 20 years youth players, numerous published reports highlight that
(A. M. Nevill et al., 2019; A. Nevill et al., 2009), while the profes these characteristics can be moderated by environmental influ
sional game has concurrently become more physically and ences and applied interventions (Williams & Reilly, 2000). Many
technically demanding (e.g., English Premier League, Bush et psychological variables and associated self-report scales now
al., 2015). However, there are constraints on increasing these exist that may have predictive value, but they have not been
anthropometric variables further, particularly height and mus assessed using longitudinal and prospective designs. These
cularity (e.g., taller individuals are not usually more advantaged measures include grit (e.g., Larkin et al., 2016), self-regulation
in soccer), and there are multiple shorter or medium than (e.g., Toering et al., 2009), mental toughness (e.g., Thelwell
average height players (e.g., Nevill et al., 2009) that have been et al., 2005), and perfectionism (Hill, 2013; Smith et al., 2018).
very successful in the modern professional game. Some key psychological variables for developing athletes have
Skill has the potential to be the key predictor of later per been grouped under the name Psychological Characteristics of
formance level, albeit it is widely reported to improve through Developing Excellence (PCDE; MacNamara et al., 2010;
engagement in relevant practice activities. Skill involves players MacNamara & Collins, 2015), including commitment, focus,
successfully executing actions with and without the ball during and distraction control (Collins et al., 2011). Moreover,
match play that are highly relevant to their positional role, the a validated self-report questionnaire has been developed to
current situation and phase of play, and the team’s strategy and assess these characteristics (Hill et al., 2019; MacNamara &
tactics (Ford, 2016). Skill test scores in adolescence are superior Collins, 2011), eliminating the need to use multiple, individual
for future adult professional players when compared to non- scales. A key concern for researchers is to remove conceptual
professional players (e.g., 6/7 studies in Table 1) with few ambiguity between psychological variables (see Dohme et al.,
exceptions (e.g., 1/7 studies in Table 1, Deprez et al., 2015), as 2017; also Duckworth & Gross, 2014) and to achieve content
well as for adolescent players who progress within youth devel validity when combining key variables (see Murr, Feichtinger et
opment programmes when compared to those who do not. In- al., 2018).
game assessments of skill (Sieghartsleitner et al., 2019; Van Sociological predictors include hours in practice, coach-
Yperen, 2009) and sub-scales of the Tactical Skills Inventory player relationships, family support, and life factors (Gledhill
for Sports (TACSIS, Forsman et al., 2016; Kannekens et al., et al., 2017; Reeves et al., 2018a). Life factors include the effect
2011) have been utilised less than skill tests, but have been of being a younger sibling (e.g., Hopwood et al., 2015), relative
reported to differentiate future adult professional players from age (e.g., Helsen et al., 2012), place of birth (e.g., MacDonald
non-professionals. et al., 2009), socio-economic status (e.g., Winn et al., 2017), and
In 6/27 studies (Höner et al., 2017, 2019; Höner & Votteler, challenging or even traumatic events, such as parental divorce
2016; Leyhr et al., 2018, 2019; Zuber et al., 2016) researchers (e.g., Collins & MacNamara, 2017b; Hardy et al., 2017; for
combined physical evaluations with assessments of technical a review see Howells et al., 2017). During adolescence, players
skills into a total motor score that included technical and who eventually turn professional in adulthood have been
physical performance inputs (see also, Benounis et al., 2013; shown to accumulate more hours of practice (Roescher et al.,
JOURNAL OF SPORTS SCIENCES 5
2010, although see Sieghartsleitner et al., 2019) and peer-led the other hand, anthropometrical predictors, which are most
play (Hendry & Hodges, 2018), received greater support from often assessed by researchers in multidisciplinary, longitudinal,
the family (Sieghartsleitner et al., 2019), had more siblings (M prospective studies (e.g., Table 1), have not been identified by
= 2.2 vs. 1.3 siblings), more divorced parents (M = 29% vs. 9%), coaches and scouts as predictors in published studies. Coaches
and sought greater social support (Van Yperen, 2009). report being very aware that physical size is confounded by
Sociologists have often addressed the complex, messy, multi maturation in youth players (Lund & Söderström, 2017; Reeves
dimensional, multifaceted, non-linear and ethical or moral nat et al., 2018b).
ure of the identification, selection and development process In two recent studies, researchers have directly compared
(Bailey, 2018). Multiple published reports exist focusing on the subjective assessments of scouts and coaches with the
sociological factors that influence the identification and devel objective measures typically used in multidisciplinary, longitu
opment of youth players, for example, recently taking up an dinal, prospective studies (Dugdale et al., in press;
entire special issue of a journal (e.g., Soccer & Society, 2018), Sieghartsleitner et al., 2019). Dugdale et al. had 80 male U11-
but few of these factors have been assessed within multidisci 17 players at a professional club in Scotland complete standard
plinary, longitudinal, prospective designs. physical and anthropometrical tests (e.g., Yo-Yo Intermittent
Altogether, 2/27 studies (7%) contained female players as Recovery Test Level 1) while simultaneously asking their
participants (Höner et al., 2019; Leyhr et al., 2019). Prognostic coach to subjectively rate each player for the corresponding
validity of measures in these two studies was generalisable physical quality (e.g., endurance). Test performance and coach
between the sexes with few, if any, gender-based differences. ratings were highly related for the best and worst performers,
Höner et al. (2019) reported that scores on the dribbling test at but less so across the entire group, suggesting that coaches
U12 were more predictive of attained performance level in may have difficulty discriminating between players that are
females compared to males. Leyhr et al. (2019) showed that relatively close together on these attributes. Sieghartsleitner
20 m sprint times in adolescence were predictive of perfor et al. (2019) compared assessment scores on various multidis
mance in female players, whereas this measure was not pre ciplinary, objective tests (e.g., psychological scales) with coach
dictive in an earlier report by the same group using male subjective ratings of these same characteristics taken during
players (Leyhr et al., 2018). Lower competition levels or greater match play using a sample of 117 male U14 players in
performance heterogeneity may have led to these differences Switzerland. Players were awarded a professional contract
in female compared to male soccer players (Leyhr et al., 2019). (n = 20) or not (n = 97) five years after data collection (U19).
There remains a need for more research on female players, The assessments of the coaches did not differ compared with
particularly in countries outside of Europe. the objective measures of performance, although combining
both forms of assessment produced the most accurate predic
tions. However, a simpler combination of coach assessment
The identification and selection of youth players by scouts
and motor performance tests was most accurate. These studies
and coaches
demonstrate the importance of combining subjective coach/
The most common approach when attempting to identify and scout assessments with objective multidisciplinary measures.
select youth soccer players into development programmes is A well-documented, unintended consequence of the identi
observation of current match performance by scouts and coa fication and selection of youth players by scouts and coaches is
ches. Our systematic literature search located nine published the relative age effect (RAE). The relative age effect is an over
research studies1 assessing the variables scouts and coaches representation of players whose birth dates are close to the
use to identify soccer players for entry into development pro start date used to categorise youth age group teams when
grammes and selection into future squads (e.g., Christensen, compared to those with birth dates later in that selection year
2009; Jokuschies et al., 2017; Larkin & O’Connor, 2017; Lund & (see Cobley et al., 2009). The most recent studies show that this
Söderström, 2017; Reeves et al., 2018b; for a review, see Roberts effect continues to persist in professional and youth players
et al., 2019). Qualitative analyses showed all studies contained (e.g., Brustio et al., 2018; Doyle et al., 2018). However, there is
male participants and included clubs or national federations in some evidence that the relative age effect does not exist in
Europe or Australia. The use of semi-structured interviews players that achieve the highest level of recognition in the
revealed that the decision to select a player (or not) is largely professional game, such as individual awards (Ford & Williams,
an intuitive one, based on an “overall impression”, factoring in 2013) or transfer value (e.g., Ashworth & Heyndels, 2007). Other
subjective evaluations of technical skills, game understanding, researchers have assessed methods seeking to prevent the RAE
speed, and a variety of psychological characteristics, such as from occurring when scouts select young players by observing
attitude, motivation, drive to succeed, and “coachability” or current performance in youth matches. Promising methods
a willingness to learn. A number of the variables shown in include the clearer identification of player age using shirt num
these studies to be used by scouts and coaches have also bering (Mann & van Ginneken, 2017) and the use of bio-
been identified by researchers using multidisciplinary, longitu banding to categorise players into groups using maturational
dinal, prospective designs to be superior in adolescent players factors rather than chronological age (e.g., Abbott et al., 2019;
who subsequently become professional in adulthood, espe Cumming et al., 2018). In future, researchers should examine
cially skill and speed predictors. In contrast, the psychological the value of these and other methods in reducing this initial
characteristics deemed important by scouts and coaches in selection bias and the likelihood of prematurely de-selecting
these studies have not often been assessed by researchers players who are chronologically and/or biologically disadvan
using multidisciplinary, longitudinal, prospective designs. On taged during development (see Webdale et al., 2019).
6 A.M. WILLIAMS ET AL.
Figure 2. Potential predictors of adult high performance in youth soccer players from each sports science discipline, with mediating factors. Bold predictors denote
those with at least some empirical evidence of predictive value from adolescence to adult performance level in soccer.
players are close together on the skill continuum or in differ 5–10 years) presents different problems, particularly the poten
entiating aspects that may be more important at higher levels tial for dropout and deselection, necessitating the use of very
of play (e.g., Bonney et al., 2019; Nortje et al., 2014; Unnithan large initial samples. In addition, longitudinal research can
et al., 2012; Vaeyens et al., 2008). Moreover, these measures are become dated because scientists are continually developing
seen as being objective and, therefore, can receive greater new and more refined measures that have more practical utility
focus when compared to other key components of perfor than preceding measures. One should equally acknowledge
mance that may be less easily measured (Carling & Collins, that the game itself changes over extended periods of time
2014). due to enhanced training practices, new tactics, and manipula
Third, the samples assessed are highly selected youth tions to rules, therefore affecting the relative importance of
players and, as such, this sample is likely to be relatively homo selection criteria.
genous on measured predictors when compared to the general Very few researchers have assessed female participants
population of players. Bergkamp et al. (2019) argue that the use (Höner et al., 2019; Leyhr et al., 2019) or non-European players
of such limited or restricted samples creates range restriction; (Aquino et al., 2017). Similarly, no studies exist in these popula
the fact that a measure does not discriminate within this nar tions to examine how coaches and scouts select players. The
row range of players should not imply that the measure does female game has grown markedly since the millennium, as
not have predictive utility when using broader samples of demonstrated by the creation of relatively new professional
players. We concur that range restriction exists in all of the 27 leagues (e.g., The FA Women’s Super League; National
multidisciplinary, longitudinal, prospective studies reviewed, Women’s Soccer League in the US) and youth academies, as
which assess selection and not identification. In 2/27 studies, well as by attendance and viewing figures at the recent World
researchers employed very large samples (22,843 players in Cup in France (FIFA, 2014, 2019). The sport is popular in many
Höner & Votteler, 2016; 14,178 players in Höner et al., 2017). countries outside of Europe at all levels from recreational to
The majority of researchers have not included all the pre professional and national teams (FIFA, 2007). While the relative
dictor categories (e.g., sociological factors are rarely consid lack of research in countries outside Europe may reflect histor
ered) or measured all variables within a category (e.g., ical biases, scientists are encouraged to explore whether con
multiple psychological factors exist), leading to issues with clusions drawn from samples of elite players in Europe
content/face validity in regards to whether the battery of generalise across other countries and to the female game.
tests is representative of all elements of performance. While A broader perspective that accounts for variances in develop
the question of what, and how many, variables to include can ment across gender and culture would likely greatly improve
and should be addressed empirically (i.e., does each measure the predictive utility of existing models.
account for any additional variance?), there remain both philo
sophical (akin to the search for the “holy grail” – does it really
Future research directions
exist?) and pragmatic issues (how much resource should be
invested and what are the associated costs and benefits?). While we have offered several implicit suggestions for future
When a player scores poorly on certain aspects of performance research throughout this review, we conclude with some more
(e.g., speed and agility), this problem is amplified because they specific directions for scientists. First, researchers should prior
can potentially compensate by developing strengths in other itise the validation of standard methods/tools that best mea
areas (e.g., game intelligence, technical skill) that may not have sure general player performance and its components in
been measured. This so-called compensation phenomenon matches and small-sided games. A standardised tool could be
(Williams & Ericsson, 2005) is modulated by position-specific used as a high-fidelity predictor measure and for the criterion
differences that exist across the sport (e.g., Deprez et al., 2015; measure (Bergkamp et al., 2019), as well as to track the devel
Gil et al., 2014) and the variation between positions in aspects opment of performance across time. Some researchers have
of performance required to be successful. This problem is com started this process using match analysis (e.g., Van Maarseveen
pounded by the fact that researchers continue to reveal multi et al., 2017; Waldron & Murphy, 2013; Waldron & Worsfold,
ple variables that may have prognostic validity in youth soccer 2010; Wilson et al., 2017) and evaluations of performance in
players, yet such measures have not been integrated into multi small-sided games (e.g., Bennett et al., 2018; Rowat et al., 2017).
disciplinary, longitudinal, prospective studies. A few issues remain unresolved when attempting to measure
Altogether, 17/27 studies used a longitudinal, prospective performance during matches and small-sided games either
approach to track players from one youth age group to a later concurrently or using post-match performance analysis meth
age group or defined professional status as the first full-time ods. The first issue is the lack of consensus on how best to
contract in late adolescence. The limitation of this approach is measure overall performance in these games and, as a conse
that aspects of performance required to progress from an ear quence, no standard, validated tool is currently available. The
lier to a later youth age group could be different compared to second issue is that the analysis of individual player perfor
those required to progress to a successful career at the adult, mance in matches or small sided games can be time consum
professional level. A player may be de-selected based on factors ing. A few published reports have attempted to solve these two
that may rather ironically, be less important at a later stage of issues by using coach ratings of individual player performance
development. We found 10 studies that tracked players from an in games or scoring systems based on wins/losses across multi
adolescent age group to adult performance levels (see Table 1), ple rotating games (e.g., Fenner et al., 2016; Unnithan et al.,
albeit half of them used late adolescence contracts as the 2012). However, there remain challenges in evaluating the
criterion. However, the use of longer prognostic periods (e.g., validity, reliability, and objectivity of coach ratings, rating
8 A.M. WILLIAMS ET AL.
tools, and scoring systems. In addition, researchers must take mono-disciplinary, descriptive, cross-sectional and a-theoreti
into account the relative age and maturity of participating cal in nature. These approaches are common across the area,
players (e.g., Cumming et al., 2018; Mann & van Ginneken, including the evaluation of potential interventions to improve
2017), as well differences between positions and the variation player development and/or well being. In future, researchers
that occurs between matches through changing environmental should provide rigorous assessment of the causal effects on
conditions, tactical approaches, opponents and teammates. players of any potential interventions. The research designs
Second, and related, given the continued growth of sports employed to assess interventions in health and medicine
science within the game, researchers should seek to validate or remain more sophisticated than those used in sports science.
re-validate the standard method/tools used to measure key There is a relative absence in the latter field of randomised
predictors that cannot readily be assessed in match-play or control trials or crossover designs in which control groups
small-sided games. These measures should be easily and later receive the intervention and vice versa or participants
quickly administered in the field, have strong predictive receiving the intervention first act as their own controls
power and validity to supplement the decisions of scouts and (Campbell et al., 2000; Craig & Petticrew, 2013; Mills et al.,
coaches, and measure a few predictors in one test to reduce the 2007; Schulz et al., 2010). An example of this approach in
load on players and coaches. They should incorporate methods youth soccer was recently published in this journal (Roberts
to account for the relative age and maturity of players (e.g., et al., 2019), and a few other published reports exist (e.g.,
Cumming et al., 2018), as well as chronological age. Miller et al., 2016). Sports scientists should attempt to learn
Third, the 27 multidisciplinary, longitudinal, prospective stu from these fields and potentially develop new robust methods
dies we reviewed assessed talent selection and not identifica in an effort to provide stronger evidence for the causal effects
tion (see Figure 1), whereas a few of the studies in which of potential interventions on player development and well-
coaches are interviewed addressed talent identification being. The problems encountered by researchers in other
(Larkin & O’Connor, 2017; Lund & Söderström, 2017; Reeves fields can potentially be avoided by sports scientists, including
et al., 2018b). There is a need for researchers to further inves researchers providing insufficient detail or control in these
tigate processes around the initial identification of players into types of studies, making replication difficult. Moreover, med
academies (Faude, 2018) and, not least, to provide further ical studies conducted at single-centres have been shown to
objectivity on the ethics and value of the early selection that overestimate effects when compared to multi-centre studies
is common in the sport. Additionally, researchers have not (e.g., Bellomo et al., 2009), suggesting an important future
assessed whether the relative importance of predictors direction for sports scientists. A further approach embraced
changes in late versus earlier selection. in the medical and health sciences that might be of use in
Fourth, researchers need to decide how and whether to sports science is the use of taxonomies that clearly list and
incorporate approaches from relatively newer scientific fields, define interventions so that other researchers can easily repli
such as neuroscience and genetics. For example, some mono- cate that part of the method (e.g., Michie et al., 2011), as well
disciplinary, cross-sectional studies already exist where as having clear guidelines on reporting (e.g., Hoffmann et al.,
researchers have directly attempted to understand the role 2014).
that genetics plays in underpinning the physiology of players. Finally, Williams and Reilly (2000) concluded that the pro
Egorova et al. (2014) observed a greater incidence of four cesses associated with the identification, selection, and devel
alleles hypothesised to be associated with power/strength, opment of players are transcended by ethical considerations.
endurance, metabolic efficiency, and muscle hypotrophy in The overall development and well-being of young players
footballers in Russia when compared to a control population. should be the primary concern of those involved and the
Moreover, some anthropometrical variables such as height and process should not occur at the expense of physical and emo
skeletal size appear to have relatively high heritability estimates tional health and growth. For example, despite all the excellent
(e.g., McEvoy & Visscher, 2009). However, there are inherent work in youth development, there remain concerns over early
challenges in the pragmatics of carrying out this type of specialisation (e.g., DiFiori et al., 2017), the identification of
research, irrespective of the improved access to the necessary players in childhood into development environments (e.g.,
analytical approaches. Cross-sectional data do not provide Rongen et al., 2018), the high rate of annual de-selection in
a comprehensive evaluation of the longitudinal relationship youth academies (e.g., Güllich, 2014) and the low rate of pro
between genetics and physical or soccer performance due to gression of young children in academies to professional status,
the inherent complexity of mapping such associations. No the potentially negative effects on players of some develop
genes or combination of genes have yet been identified that ment processes and being deselected (e.g., Ivarsson et al.,
would offer any substantive predictive utility in the context of 2015), the relative age effect (e.g., Helsen et al., 2012), and
identification or performance in soccer (Pitsiladis & Wang, traditional, autocratic coaching behaviours (e.g., Partington
2017), although this statement does not imply that genes and et al., 2014). Our hope is that the significant progress we have
how they are expressed in and by a particular environment do highlighted since the turn of the millennium accelerates over
not contribute to performance. coming decades and that sports scientists continue to publish
Fifth, while there has been a significant growth in empirical scientific evidence that helps guide practitioners, coaches and
work on identification and development in soccer over the scouts in their quest to ethically identify and develop future
prevailing two decades, the typical approach remains largely generations of professional soccer players.
JOURNAL OF SPORTS SCIENCES 9
Disclosure statement of complex interventions to improve health. British Medical Journal, 321,
694–696. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.321.7262.694
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors. Carling, C., & Collins, D. (2014). Comment on “Football-specific fitness
testing: Adding value or confirming the evidence?”. Journal of Sports
Sciences, 32(13), 1206–1208. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2014.
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