What 800 executives

envision for the

postpandemic workforce
Responses to a McKinsey global survey of 800 executives suggest a
disruptive period of workplace changes lies ahead due to acceleration
of automation, digitization, and other trends.
This article was a collaborative effort by Susan Lund, Wan-Lae Cheng, André Dua, Aaron De Smet,
Olivia Robinson, and Saurabh Sanghvi.
The authors would like to thank Anja Nilsson, Pawel Poplawski, Rukmi Sarmah, and Gunnar Schrah.

© Getty Images

September 2020
 The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major Since the start of COVID-19, executives
disruption to our working lives in the short term, say adoption of digitization and
and is likely to change the way that we work in the automation technologies has
long term.1 To understand these changes, McKinsey
accelerated
commissioned a survey of business executives
Unprecedented restrictions on travel, physical
around the world in June 2020. The results suggest
interactions, and changes in consumer behavior
that the crisis may accelerate some workforce
since COVID-19 took hold has forced companies
trends already underway, such as the adoption of
and consumers to change the way they operate. This
automation and digitization, increased demand for
has spurred digital transformations in a matter of
contractors and gig workers, and more remote work.
weeks rather than months or years. As nonessential
Those changes in turn will create greater demand for
workers shifted to working from home, 85 percent
workers to fill jobs in areas like health and hygiene,
of respondents in the McKinsey survey said their
cybersecurity, and data analytics.
businesses have somewhat or greatly accelerated
the implementation of technologies that digitally
The responses to the survey point to a period of
enable employee interaction and collaboration, such
disruptive change ahead. Not only has COVID-19
as videoconferencing and filesharing. Roughly half
thrown millions of individuals out of work, but the
of those surveyed reported increasing digitization
mix of jobs that emerge from this crisis is likely
of customer channels, for example, via ecommerce,
different than those that were lost. People with the
mobile apps, or chatbots. Some 35 percent have
lowest incomes and educational attainment have
further digitized their supply chains, for example, by
been disproportionately affected, putting strains on
connecting their suppliers with digital platforms in
achieving inclusive growth and potentially raising
supply chain management (Exhibit 1).
income inequality. Small and midsize businesses
and communities of color, already more severely
Adoption of automation technologies—including
affected by COVID-19, are also more vulnerable to
robotics, autonomous vehicles, and AI-driven
disruption from increased automation.
software that can perform processing workflows—
has also accelerated during the pandemic, although
These insights are based on a recent survey of 800
to a lesser extent than digitization. These trends
executives, representing a full range of industries in
reflect automation’s ability to facilitate contactless
eight countries. Half of the respondents are based
interactions at a time of social distancing and
in the United States, and the rest work in Australia,
heightened awareness of hygiene, as well as
Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Spain, and
cost pressures that may arise from the economic
the United Kingdom. The respondents represented
slowdown caused by COVID-19. Another plus:
businesses of different sizes, with a quarter from
robots don’t get sick.
companies with less than $1 billion in revenues,
and the remainder split between companies with
For example, during the pandemic, American Eagle
revenues of $1 billion to $10 billion and those with
Outfitters deployed robots to help it sort clothes in
revenues over $10 billion.2
its warehouses to meet a surge of online orders, and

1
This article complements the substantial body of research by the McKinsey Global Institute on the future of work. For instance, see The future
of work in Europe: Automation, workforce transitions, and the shifting geography of employment, McKinsey Global Institute, June 2020, and The
future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow, McKinsey Global Institute, July 2019.
2
The survey was in the field from May 26, 2020 to July 14, 2020, and garnered responses from 800 C-level executives and senior managers in
selected countries (Australia, China, Canada, France, Germany, India, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and representing the full
range of industries. Four hundred of these respondents, or one-half of the sample, were US-based.

2 McKinsey Global Institute

Exhibit 1

Executives say they have accelerated the deployment of digitization and

automation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, how has your company’s or business area’s adoption
of the following technology trends changed? % of respondents (n = 800)
Digitization Digitization Digitization of Automation
of supply of customer employee interaction and artificial
chain channels and collaboration intelligence
Significantly
accelerated 9
14
20
Somewhat
accelerated
27 45
67%
34
85% of companies
have
of companies accelerated
have automation
accelerated 47 and artificial
digitization intelligence

No change/
not applicable/ 54 40
not adopted
47

31
Somewhat
decelerated 12
10
4 3 3
Significantly 1 2 1 1
decelerated

Note: Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.

Source: McKinsey Global Business Executives Survey, July 2020

Unprecedented restrictions on travel,

physical interactions, and changes in
consumer behavior since COVID-19 took
hold has forced companies and consumers
to change the way they operate.

What 800 executives envision for the post-pandemic workforce 3

 IBM saw a surge in new customers in the second advantage of digital payments and other machine-
quarter of 2020 for its AI-driven Watson Assistant, powered activities clear. Use of tap credit cards and
a platform for deploying chatbots and other cashless money transfer systems has risen during the
customer services. 3 Use of such technologies allows pandemic, and more and more transactions are taking
contactless customer interaction in a period when place online. From April to May this year, downloads
human contact is discouraged and builds resilience of the Venmo person-to-person payments app rose
by limiting reliance on virus-susceptible employees. 16.5 and 20.1 percent at Square Cash.6 Consumer
Providers of cloud services, such as Amazon and migration to digital banking of this sort may mean
Alibaba, have announced plans to markedly step up fewer bank employees are needed in retail branches.
investment in cloud services, an indication that they
expect increased demand related to changes in the Adoption of automation and AI has expanded most
workplace post-COVID. among firms that had a greater shift to remote work
since the outbreak of COVID-19, according to our
Nearly half of executives note that their adoption survey. Among executives of companies that moved
of automation has accelerated moderately, and most of their employees to remote work during
roughly 20 percent report significantly increasing the pandemic, 80 percent said they had increased
automation. Across countries, the United States automation, while only 51 percent of executives from
and India stand out, with 83 percent of executives companies that adopted remote work for just a few
surveyed in the United States, and 70 percent employees said automation had grown.
of executives surveyed in India, reporting faster
adoption of automation. Even amid the rapid changes that are underway,
executives are confident about their companies’
Companies across industries are reporting ability to navigate these changes. Eighty-two percent
increased adoption of automation. Brain Corp, for say they feel at least somewhat confident—with
example, reported that the use of robots to clean half saying they’re highly confident. One silver lining
retail locations in the United States had risen from the pandemic is that companies have found
13.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 and 24.0 they can adopt new technologies much faster than
percent in the following quarter, compared with they previously thought. As Microsoft’s CEO has
the same periods in 2019. 4 With a higher volume of famously said, “We’ve seen two years’ worth of digital
packages moving through sorting centers, FedEx transformation in two months.”7
and other distribution companies have deployed
more robots to mitigate the impact of having fewer
employees on site because of social distancing. 5 Some remote work is here to stay, but
not for everyone or for every workday
While executives in all sectors report increased Before the pandemic, remote work had struggled to
adoption of digitization and automation, those in establish much of a beachhead, as companies worried
the financial services and technology sectors have about its impact on productivity and corporate culture.
seen the greatest acceleration of such technologies With the advent of COVID-19, however, tens of millions
since the COVID-19 outbreak. Some 88 percent of of employees were sent home, armed with laptops
finance and insurance executives and 76 percent and other digital technologies, to start work. Now,
of information and technology executives reported some employers intend to increase the number of
increased implementation of automation and AI their employees working remotely at least some of
since the outbreak. These sectors were leaders in the time, although at far lower levels than seen during
digitization and automation prior to the pandemic, lockdowns and quarantines.
and the peculiarities of the coronavirus made the

3
Dan Berthiaume, “American Eagle expands use of warehouse robots to meet COVID-19 demands,” Chain Store Age, August 12, 2020.
4
Greg Nichols, “Robot usage is soaring during pandemic,” ZDNet, July 24, 2020.
5
Brian Heater, “FedEx is utilizing robotic arms to sort packages at a Memphis facility,” TechCrunch, July 17, 2020.
6
Jeff John Roberts, “Paying during a pandemic: Venmo, PayPal, and other payment transfer system apps are surging,” Fortune, May 20, 2020.
7
Microsoft 365, “2 years of digital transformation in 2 months,” Jared Spataro, April 30, 2020, https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/
microsoft-365/blog/2020/04/30/2-years-digital-transformation-2-months/.

4 McKinsey Global Institute

 Across all sectors, 15 percent of executives surveyed developed countries, the share of workers unable
amid the pandemic said at least one-tenth of their to work remotely is even higher. 8 The potential
employees could work remotely two or more days a for remote work depends on the nature of tasks
week going forward, almost double the 8 percent of conducted; workers in jobs requiring interaction
respondents who expressed that intention before with machinery or in outdoor spaces, for example,
COVID-19. This varies by country, with 20 percent are less likely to be able to work remotely than those
of executives surveyed in the United Kingdom and using computers to do their work.
Germany saying that at least one-tenth of their
employees could work remotely two or more days a There will be challenges in managing a workforce
week going forward, which drops to only 4 percent that is working partly remotely and partly in person.
among respondents in China. Extending remote Companies will need to reconstruct how work is
work beyond two days a week, however, was less done, decide which employees and roles are best
popular among respondents overall, with just 7 suited to remote work, and reconfigure and rethink
percent saying at least one-tenth of their employees the workplace.
could work three or more days a week remotely.

The potential for remote work is highly concentrated Companies plan to increase roles in
in a handful of sectors, such as information health and hygiene
and technology, finance and insurance, and COVID-19 has drawn intense attention to issues of
management, and executives from those sectors sanitation and workplace safety. In our survey, 83
show greater intent to deploy their employees percent of respondents said they would hire more
remotely. Some 34 percent of respondents from people for health and safety roles. Of these, 73
the information and technology sector said they percent of executives said they expect to hire more
expect to have at least one-tenth of their employees people to manage on-site physical distancing and
working remotely for at least two days a week after sanitation (Exhibit 2). This is also an area, however,
COVID-19, compared with 22 percent of executives where companies could deploy robotics. Robots
from that sector surveyed before the pandemic. now can clean floors, windows, and ducts, and
Most of the companies that have announced plans one robot even promises to kill bacteria in hospital
for greater remote work among their employees settings.9
are from the technology of finance sectors, notably
Facebook, Twitter, and Hitachi. Nationwide As workspaces are redesigned, companies will likely
Mutual Insurance Company, for instance, recently add new roles in facilities management. Workers
announced that it would close five offices in smaller specializing in things like ventilation and elevator
cities around the United States and have employees operations will become more important, as will
there work remotely. Similarly, Morgan Stanley and custodians and caterers. Gone is the coffee bar,
Mondelez have said they will be using hybrid work replaced perhaps by a station where temperatures
models going forward. With such corporate leaders are taken. More space between workspaces and
setting new expectations for how and where work employees assigned to zones to better prevent
gets done, remote work could become a way to disease spread will require new roles in security.
lower real estate costs and compete for talent.
Some 35 percent of survey respondents said they
It is important to keep in mind, however, that more would need more workers skilled in automation,
than 60 percent of workers in the US economy AI, and robotics, a reflection of the increased
cannot work remotely. Their jobs require at least deployment of automation during COVID-19.
some physical presence such as standing on a meat Companies as varied as Walmart, JPMorgan Chase,
processing line, helping customers in a store, or and AT&T already have built programs to retrain their
providing healthcare services. In less economically employees losing jobs to automation in new skills

8
Jonathan I. Dingel and Brent Neiman, How many jobs can be done at home?, Becker Friedman Institute of Economics white paper, June 2020,
bfi.uchicago.edu.
9
Rachel Lerman, “Robot cleaners are coming, this time to wipe up your coronavirus germs,” Washington Post, September 8, 2020.

What 800 executives envision for the post-pandemic workforce 5

 Exhibit 2
Roles that may see the greatest increase in hiring because of the COVID-19
crisis include jobs that involve maintaining workplace safety and hygiene.
Increases in hiring since beginning of COVID-19 crisis by area and role, % of respondents (n = 800)¹
Health and safety Technology and automation Digital learning and
agile ways of working

73

48

35
32
26
24
19
12 12 14 13
8

On-site Automation Internet Cyber- Intranet/ Digital learning

distancing/ and artificial of Things security company and training
sanitizing intelligence network
Workforce Digital Cloud Data and Agile ways HR digital
safety and customer analytics of working and remote
health experience hiring

For which of the following types of roles do you think your company or business area will hire
more people because of the COVID-19 crisis? % of respondents (n = 800)

Health and safety 83

Technology and automation 68

Digital learning and agile ways of working 45

¹Total of 2,547 responses across 800 respondents (that is, each identified about three types of roles they would hire more of because of the COVID-19 crisis).
Source: McKinsey Global Business Executives Survey, July 2020

that complement automation. Such skills currently The intention to migrate to a model with greater
are rare among the workforce, and retraining reliance on on-site contractors is particularly
employees in them typically costs companies less pronounced in the accommodation and food services
than laying them off. sector, as well as in healthcare and social assistance.

Uncertainty about how the pandemic will play out

When hiring for on-site roles, and when economies will regain momentum may be
executives expect to rely much more on among the reasons for plans to increase the number
contractors and temporary workers of contractors they use. Another reason to make
Two years from now, about 70 percent of the labor a variable cost through contracting may reflect
executives in our survey expect to use more cost pressures companies experience as they work
temporary workers and contractors onsite at their to survive through the downturn.
companies than they did before the crisis (Exhibit 3).

6 McKinsey Global Institute

COVID-19 already has dramatically changed lower costs, and enhance resilience. Innovation
the way many jobs are done, and employers are historically has driven changes beneficial to workers
now planning how best to extract benefits from and humanity at large, and new workplace trends
those changes as they prepare for business hold the promise of greater productivity that will fuel
after the pandemic subsides. Greater digitization broader well-being. The trick will be in reducing the
and automation, more demand for independent risk of unequal outcomes, ensuring companies of all
contractors, and increased reliance on remote work sizes can benefit, and preparing workers for these
have the potential to deliver better productivity, shifts.

Exhibit 3
Demand for on-site freelancers and temporary workers will likely rise over
the next two years compared with levels prior to the COVID-19 crisis.
How do you expect your company’s or business area’s use of individual freelancers, contractors,
and/or temporary workers in two years will compare with precrisis levels? % of respondents (n = 800)
Remote freelancers, contractors, On-site freelancers, contractors,
and/or temporary workers and/or temporary workers

Significantly higher 2 4

Somewhat higher 20
~70%
of executives
67 suggested
that they
wanted to
hire on-site
No change 62 temporary
workers and
freelancers

21

Somewhat lower 14
7
Significantly lower 2 1

Source: McKinsey Global Business Executives Survey, July 2020

André Dua is a senior partner in Miami. Wan-Lae Cheng is a partner in Washington, DC. Susan Lund is a McKinsey
Global Institute (MGI) partner, also based in Washington, DC. Aaron De Smet is a senior partner in Houston. Olivia
Robinson is an engagement manager in McKinsey’s London office. Saurabh Sanghvi is an associate partner in the
Silicon Valley office. The authors wish to thank Rukmi Sarmah, junior associate in Mumbai; Gunnar Schrah, director
of research science in Denver; Pawel Poplawski, senior research analyst, OrgScience in Warsaw; and Anja Nilsson,
engagement manager in New Jersey, for their contributions.

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What 800 executives envision for the post-pandemic workforce 7