The D. E. Shaw Groups Perspectives On Emerson 10.15.19
The D. E. Shaw Groups Perspectives On Emerson 10.15.19
The D. E. Shaw Groups Perspectives On Emerson 10.15.19
S H AW G R O U P ’ S P E R S P E C T I V E S
ON EMERSON ELECTRIC CO.
OCTOBER 2019
www.DEShawMaterials.com
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2
About The D. E. Shaw Group
Founded in 1988, the D. E. Shaw group is a global investment and technology development firm with over $50 billion in assets under management, predominantly
from institutional investors. We have a significant presence in the world’s capital markets, investing in a wide range of companies and financial instruments in both
developed and developing economies.
The D. E. Shaw group has been a long-term shareholder of Emerson Electric Co. (“Emerson Electric” or “Emerson”)
We have performed extensive research to understand Emerson’s various businesses and available value creation opportunities. Specifically, we have:
• Used publicly available financial information to determine Emerson’s relative financial and operational performance and capital allocation track record
• Worked with experienced operating partners within the industrial automation and HVAC industries, including numerous former Emerson employees, to further our
understanding of Emerson’s markets, competitive dynamics and strategic positioning
• Retained a leading consulting firm to aid in our in-depth due diligence through analysis of Emerson’s operations, with an emphasis on understanding cost
reduction, efficiency improvement opportunities and other potential areas for Emerson to improve across its key business units, including but not limited to:
– Detailed assessment of cost rationalization opportunities (including a line-item analysis for every cost element within the Automation business and corporate
center)
– Analysis of publicly available headcount and salary data from online employment-oriented services to deconstruct Emerson’s cost structure on an outside-in
basis
– Detailed assessment of any dis-synergies that would result from separation of Emerson’s business units
• Retained tax and corporate counsel to understand various transaction structures involving Emerson’s principal business segments and relevant governance
mechanisms
3
C H A N G E I S N E E D E D AT E M E R S O N E L E C T R I C
4
Change is Needed at Emerson Electric
EMERSON HAS DELIVERED LESS VALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS THAN ITS PEERS AND THE MARKET
• Emerson’s total shareholder return has underperformed proxy peers and the market by 45% and 47%, respectively, in the past five years
• Emerson has also lagged peers in each of its business segments, underperforming automation peers and HVAC peers by 24% and climate peers by 88%
• Emerson’s stock performance has lagged every relevant peer over every relevant time period
EMERSON HAS UNDERPERFORMED OPERATIONALLY AND SHOWS SIGNS OF POOR EXECUTION AND COST CONTROL
• Emerson has the highest levels of SG&A and corporate expense relative to sales amongst peers
• Emerson’s Automation business has lower margins than peers in each of its business lines
• Emerson misses estimates much more frequently than peers eroding investor confidence
EMERSON IS SEVERELY UNDERVALUED DESPITE BEST-IN-CLASS ASSETS, AND WE WOULD LIKE TO WORK TOGETHER
CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH THE EMERSON BOARD AND MANAGEMENT TEAM TO UNLOCK VALUE FOR ALL SHAREHOLDERS
5
E M E R S O N H A S D E L I V E R E D L E S S VA L U E T O S H A R E H O L D E R S
THAN ITS PEERS AND THE MARKET
6
Emerson Has Underperformed Any Relevant Peer Set Over Any Relevant Time Period
Note(s):
• Source: Bloomberg
• Market Data as of 9/26/19, one day prior to press reports of the D. E. Shaw group’s involvement with the 3. Includes Johnson Controls, United Technologies, Lennox and Ingersoll Rand
Company 4. Includes Rockwell, Honeywell, Flowserve, ABB, Johnson Controls, United Technologies, Lennox, Ingersoll Rand, Fortune
• Peer index returns calculated on an equal weighted basis Brands, Stanley Black & Decker, 3M, Allegion, AMETEK, Dover, Eaton, Fortive, General Electric, Parker Hannifin, Pentair,
1. Includes Caterpillar, Cummins, Danaher, Deere, DowDuPont, Eaton, Fluor, General Dynamics, Goodyear Cognex, Gardner Denver, Roper, nVent, Kennametal, Graco, Illinois Tool Works, Siemens, Schneider, ROTORK and SPX
Tire, Honeywell, Illinois Tool Works, Ingersoll Rand, International Paper, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Flow
Grumman, Parker Hannifin, PPG, Raytheon, Schlumberger, TE Connectivity, Textron, United Technologies 5. Includes 3M, Deere, Honeywell, Ingersoll Rand, Cummins, Raytheon, Eaton, ITW, Textron, Parker Hannifin, Rockwell, L3
and 3M Harris, Paccar
2. Includes Rockwell, Honeywell, Flowserve, ABB, ROTORK and Schneider 6. Includes ABB, AMETEK, Dover, Flowserve, Honeywell, Pentair, Rockwell, ROTORK 7
During the Past Five Years, Emerson Has Underperformed Proxy Peers
and the Market by 45% and 47%, Respectively
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20% EMR
-40%
14
15
16
17
18
8
15
16
17
18
19
5
9
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
c
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
Se
De
Se
De
Se
De
Se
De
Se
De
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
M
M
Note(s):
• Source: Bloomberg
• Market Data as of 9/26/19, one day prior to press reports of the D. E. Shaw group’s involvement with the Company
• Peer index returns calculated on an equal weighted basis
1. Proxy Peer Index includes Caterpillar, Cummins, Danaher, Deere, DowDuPont, Eaton, Fluor, General Dynamics, Goodyear Tire, Honeywell, Illinois Tool Works, Ingersoll Rand, International Paper, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman,
Parker Hannifin, PPG, Raytheon, Schlumberger, TE Connectivity, Textron, United Technologies and 3M 8
EMERSON HAS A POOR TRACK RECORD
O F C A P I TA L A L L O C AT I O N
9
Emerson’s Capital Deployment Has Resulted in Incremental Returns Below Its Cost of
Capital…
16,000 4,000
4,457 12.0% 11.4%
13,802 )
668 18
14,000 3,500 ‘00-’
(
GR
CA
% 2,967 10.0%
12,000 3,000 0.9 9.2%
10,013 2,526
10,000 2,500 8.0%
$mm
$mm
8,000 2,000
6.0%
6,000 1,500
4.0% 3.2%
4,000 1,000
2.0%
2,000 500
0 0 0.0%
EBITDA - CAPEX EBITDA - CAPEX (2)
Net Capex Net M&A Work ing Total EMR Return on EMR Cost of Peer Average(3)
Spend (1) Capital Capital (2000) (2018) Incremental Capital ROIIC
Released Spend Invested
Note(s): Capital
• Source: Company filings
• Return on Incremental Invested Capital (“ROIIC”) is defined as incremental EBITDA-CAPEX during the period divided by incremental net capital spend and is adjusted for spinoffs and stock acquisitions
1. Net M&A spend calculated as total acquisition spend less divestiture proceeds
2. Emerson’s WACC based on Bloomberg data
3. Peer group includes Emerson proxy peers and operational peers on page 11 10
…And Meaningfully Below Those of Peers
Emerson’s Incremental Return On Invested Capital during the time period from 2000-2018 is near the bottom of peer group
35%
30%
Return on Incremental Capital Spend (%)
25%
20%
35%
15%
25% Peer
Average:
10% 21% 20% 11.4%
19% 19%
17%
15% 14%
13%
12% 12%
5% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6%
5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 0%
0%
IR
ROK
ITW
LII
RTN
HON
CMI
FLR
LMT
PH
MMM
DHR
CAT
ETN
PPG
SWK
GD
UTX
JCI
DE
DD
FLS
TEL
NOC
GT
EMR
SLB
TXT
IP
-5% -4%
Note(s):
• Source: Company filings
• Return on Incremental Invested Capital (“ROIIC”) is defined as incremental EBITDA-CAPEX during the period divided by incremental net capital spend and is adjusted for spinoffs
and stock acquisitions
• Peer group includes Emerson proxy peers and operational peers 11
Emerson’s Network Power Investment Destroyed Value
8.5x 5,000
$mm
$mm
8.0x 250 4,000
4,000
6.0x 200
3,000
150
4.0x
2,000
100
2.0x
50 1,000
0.0x 0 0
Average Buy in Sale Multiple
Multiple (Sinc e
Acquired 2016 EBITDA Acquistion Sale Price
2000) EBITDA Spend Since
2000
Note(s): 12
• Source: Company filings, Company press releases and various sell side equity research reports
Emerson’s Attempt to Purchase Rockwell Automation Generated
Extreme Shareholder Dissatisfaction
Emerson was willing to pay ~20x EBITDA …and the stock underperformed the market
for Rockwell Automation… by 13% in the weeks following the bid
25.0x 2%
+0.6%
0%
19.7x 19.7x
20.0x
-2%
15.5x
5.0x -10%
-12% -12.4%
0.0x
10/31/2017 Bid 11/16/2017 Bid Today -14%
ROK EMR
30-Oct-17 16-Nov-17
ROK w/ Synergies
Emerson S&P 500
Note(s):
• Source: Bloomberg and Company press releases
• Market Data as of 9/26/19, one day prior to press reports of the D. E. Shaw group’s involvement with the Company 13
E M E R S O N H A S U N D E R P E R F O R M E D O P E R AT I O N A L LY A N D
SHOWS SIGNS OF POOR EXECUTION AND COST CONTROL
14
Emerson Has the Highest Levels of SG&A Relative to Sales Amongst Peers
30.0%
Automation (60% of revenue) Climate (27% of revenue) Tools (13% of revenue)
20.0% Weighted
18% 19% Average
19.6%
16%
15.0%
13%
12%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Honeywell Siemens ABB Flowserve Rockwell UTX Lennox Johnson Ingersoll Stanley Emerson
Controls Rand
Note(s):
• Source: Company filings. SG&A includes R&D expenses and is adjusted for one-time items including restructuring charges, currency translation, gains/losses on asset sales and other non-recurring expenses
• = SG&A adjusted for amortization of intangible assets. Emerson stands above most peers at 23% of sales compared to 19% for the peer weighted average
15
Emerson’s Employee Productivity Metrics Lag Both Direct Peers and the
Broader Multi-Industrial Universe
Emerson’s revenue per employee significantly lags …and ranks near the bottom of the broader multi-
peer averages across each of its business lines… industrial universe
$350,000 $400,000
$250,000
$196,552
$200,000
$200,000
$150,000
$150,000
$100,000
$100,000
$50,000 $50,000
$0 $0
SIE
FLOW
DH R
ALL E
GE
ETN
IR
SWK
MMM
GDI
AME
ROK
DOV
ROP
ABB
CFX
UTX
FLS
KMT
LII
FBHS
PH
EMR
HON
JCI
GGG
FTV
CGNX
NVT
ITW
PNR
N
R
E
S
IR
K
K
B
TX
I
JC
LI
FL
O
AB
O
SI
SW
EM
U
R
H
Note(s):
• Source: Company filings.
16
Emerson’s Automation Business is Being Under-Managed Relative to Its Potential
Emerson’s Automation Solutions segment EBITDA margin of 20.9% in 2018 is below peer average margins in
each of its business lines
Process
Automation (50%)
35.0%
Peer
30.0% Weighted
29.8% Average
25.5%
25.0% 26.6%
2018 EBITDA Margin%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
AMETEK Fiel d Honeywell Rock wel l Siemens Flowserve ROTORK (3) EMR Automation
Instrumentation (1) Process Solutions (2) Automation Digital Industri es Flow Control
Note(s):
• Source: Company filings
1. AMETEK field instrumentation margins in-line with segment average for AMETEK’s Electronic Instruments Group (EIG)
2. Honeywell Process Solutions sub-segment EBITDA margins estimated to be in-line with Performance Materials and Technologies segment per management direction; adjusted to exclude
impact of new Smart Energy business in 2017 17
3. ROTORK margins exclude ROTORK Gears segment
4. Adjusted to reflect eighty basis point charge from Emerson corporate center to Automation segment
Emerson Automation Outspends Peers Across Most G&A Categories
Due To a Culture of Cost Mismanagement
Emerson’s Automation Solutions segment appears to be less efficient than peers across every G&A category
with the exception of research and development based on bottom-up deconstruction of Emerson’s cost base
3.5%
0.0%
R
R
er
er
er
er
er
er
er
EM
EM
EM
EM
EM
EM
EM
rm
rm
rm
rm
rm
rm
rm
rfo
rfo
rfo
rfo
rfo
rfo
rfo
Pe
Pe
Pe
Pe
Pe
Pe
Pe
n
n
ia
ia
ia
ia
ia
ia
ia
ed
ed
ed
ed
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M
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Note(s):
• Source: Proprietary analysis by leading consulting firm based in part on comprehensive review of publicly available headcount and salary data from online employment-oriented services that
covers over 80% of Emerson G&A employees, industry expert interviews and CEB Benchmark data for large (>$1bn) industrial companies
• Median performer represents the median of CEB Benchmark data for large industrial companies 18
Emerson Automation Could Benefit From Footprint Consolidation in Houston…
Emerson Automation has as many as eighteen facilities in the City of Houston alone
Note(s):
• Source: Company information, web-based map provider 19
• 6005 Rogerdale Road includes two office locations onsite for distinct Emerson businesses (Emerson Process Management and Emerson Energy Solutions International), bringing the total facility count to eighteen
…Which Is Not the Only Location with Multiple Rooftops
8
Energy solutions international office
Zedi Inc. office
633 6th Ave SW Calgary
902 11th SW Calgary Acquired 2019
5 5 5 v v
4 4 4
3 3 3
Emerson Process
n
ry
ai
Management/Emerson Centre HQ
s
en
tt e
go
ai
la
or
to
ila
nn
ga
gh
rlo
ca
z
al
on
ap
en
D
hi
ha
m
ng
Sh
C
Sh
C
Ed
C
Si
Note(s):
• Source: Company information, web-based map provider 20
Emerson Automation’s Salesforce Productivity Significantly Trails Peers
Current salesforce productivity within Emerson’s Automation business is below internal benchmarks and
meaningfully below that of other engineered industrial equipment businesses
$4.0 $3.8
$3.6
$3.5 $3.4
Average:
$3.2mm
$3.0 $2.8
Revenue Per Salesperson ($mm)
$2.6
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.5
$1.2
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
EMR AS (1) EMR AS - Internal(2) Engineered industrial Engineered valves, LV/MV electrical LV/MV electrical Pumps, compressor
Target materials comp pumps comp equipment comp 1 equipment comp 2 equipment
Note(s):
• Source: Proprietary analysis by leading consulting firm, Company investor presentations, the D. E. Shaw group proprietary estimates
1. Based on 12,500 salespeople from page 128 of Emerson 2019 Investor Day Presentation; assumes 25% of listed salespeople are Emerson impact partners. The fully loaded revenue per salesperson is ~$900,000
2. Interviews with former Emerson employees 21
Emerson Has the Highest Corporate Expense Levels as a Percentage
of Sales Among Multi-Industrial Companies
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
Peer
Average:
1.5% 1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
EM 2)
)
S (1
P(
I
FL T
T
R
N
R
E
W
IR
K
I
K
V
TX
FX
G
PH
LE
SU
I
HS
W
HR
E
JC
D
LI
V
FT
KM
FL
O
O
AB
O
O
SI
AM
SW
G
ET
PN
G
IT
O
M
G
AL
U
N
FB
R
R
H
R
G
M
Note(s):
• Source: Company filings
1. Flowserve corporate expenses adjusted to reflect higher corporate expense from transformation costs associated with Flowserve 2.0
2. Roper corporate expenses adjusted to reflect $35 million of accelerated vesting associated with the passing of former executive chairman 22
Emerson Operates an Exceptionally Large Fleet of Private Jets Which Suggests
a Culture of Excessive Costs…
A relic of a bygone era in corporate America, Emerson …which costs shareholders millions
maintains a fleet of eight private jets and a helicopter… of dollars annually…
10
+1 Helicopter
8
Number of Private Jets
Peer
Avg.: 1
0
FLS LII ITW ETN DOV IR JCI SWK MMM ROK EMR
Emerson’s internal airline has taken 260 flights in the last 90 days(1), averaging
roughly three flights a day, despite commercial alternatives on many routes
Note(s):
•
1.
Source: FAA registrations, Business Jet Traveler, Conklin & de Decker (business aviation consultancy) Aircraft Performance Comparator
The D. E. Shaw group proprietary estimates
23
… And Personal Usage of Aircraft By Emerson’s CEO is Substantially Higher Than Peers
$150,000
2013 $295,000
$100,000 Peer
2012 $353,000
Average:
$50,000 $77,481
2011 $304,000
$0
0 0 0 0
Eaton
Honeywell
DowDupont
Danaher
Goodyear
United Tech.
Fluor
TE Conn.
Cummin s
Textron
Deere
Caterpillar
ITW
Ingersoll Rand
Parker Hannifin
Schlumberger
PPG
3M
Emerson
Int'l Paper
2010 $325,000
2009 $304,000
Note(s):
•
1.
Source: Emerson proxy materials; SEC proxy materials for other companies listed
Excludes proxy peers in the aerospace and defense industry
24
Emerson Even Has a Separate Aviation Department Staffed With Over Forty Employees
Emerson’s aviation department was established in 1973 … and has a highly coveted full time
and has amassed more than 160,000 flight hours… eight week summer internship
40%
30%
20%
Note(s):
• Source: Bloomberg average of last five years
1. Operational peer group includes Lennox International, Rockwell Automation, Stanley Black & Decker, Ingersoll Rand, Honeywell, United Technologies, Flowserve
2. Proxy peer group includes Caterpillar, Cummins, Danaher, Deere, DowDuPont, Eaton, Fluor, General Dynamics, Goodyear Tire, Honeywell, Illinois Tool Works, Ingersoll Rand, International
Paper, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Parker Hannifin, PPG, Raytheon, Schlumberger, TE Connectivity, Textron, United Technologies and 3M 26
… And Skepticism Towards Emerson’s Ability to Achieve Its 2021 Targets
$4.50
22,000
$4.16
19,664
$mm
28
Emerson’s Governance Practices Prevent Meaningful Shareholder Engagement…
Emerson is the only company in its proxy peer A proposal to declassify the board of directors in 2013
group that still has a staggered board and one of received overwhelming support from voting
a small minority in the S&P 500 shareholders…
2.0%
100%
EMR EMR
+ sixty
others
For
% of Companies that have de-staggered Board
80%
Abstain
98.0%
60%
…but Amendments to the Articles of Incorporation require
the vote of 85% of all shareholders (voting and
non-voting), an unrealistic requirement allowing the
40% Company to ignore the will of shareholders
20%
29%
% Voting EMR
Shareholders
% Non-voting
71%
0%
S&P 500 EMR Proxy Peers
Note(s):
• Source: Company proxy materials 29
… And the Board Has Not Made an Attempt to Address This Issue
Emerson touted its declassification proposal …but if Emerson wanted all directors to be elected annually, it
as evidence of good governance in its latest would amend its bylaws to allow each
proxy statement… class one year terms that expire each year
Note(s):
• Source: Company proxy materials and Restated Articles of Incorporation 30
Emerson’s Long-Term Incentive Compensation Structure
Rewards Growth over Shareholder Returns…
Emerson’s performance measures do not As a result, Emerson’s executive officers have been
contemplate operating return or shareholder return paid 86%-97% of compensation targets in every
metrics… evaluation period regardless of stock performance
Performance Measures for Long-Term Incentive
Compensation: 100% 96% 97%
93%
1. Earnings Per Share Growth (60%) Average:
93%
90% 86%
a) Target: Earnings Per Share Compound Annual
Growth Rate over three years greater than or
80%
equal to G7 GDP + 300 basis points
70%
2. Free Cash Flow (40%)
% Payout of Target
a) Target: Cumulative Free Cash Flow greater than or 60%
equal to the sum of yearly Free Cash Flow Target.
Yearly Free Cash Flow target calculated as prior 50%
year Free Cash Flow increased by growth rate
equal to G7 GDP + 300 basis points 40%
120% 20%
95%
100%
77%
80%
10%
60%
40%
0%
20%
2007-2010 Plan2010-2013 Plan2013-2016 Plan2016-2018 Plan
0%
Proxy Peers w/ either TSR or Proxy Peers w/ TSR Metric for Long
Operating Return Metric for Long Term Term Incentive Compensation From January 2007 through December 2018, Emerson
Incentive Compensation underperformed proxy peers by 118% yet still averaged a 93%
payout of Long-Term incentive compensation during the period
Note(s): 31
• Source: Emerson 2019 Proxy Statement
…Which Has Led to a Decoupling Between Executive Compensation
and Total Shareholder Returns…
Emerson has paid its CEO over $150 million …despite total shareholder returns during the
during the past ten years (50% more than S&P 500 period that have lagged the S&P 500 and Rockwell
average and nearly double that of Rockwell)… by 118% and 340%, respectively
$160 700%
$152
$140 600%
10-Year CEO Compensation ($mm)
500%
$120
$103 400%
$100
$88
300%
$80
200%
$60
100%
$40
0%
$20
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
-100%
$0
Emerson S&P 500 Rockwell ROK EMR S&P 500 Return
Note(s):
• Source: Bloomberg
• Market Data as of 12/31/2018
32
...Allowing For Emerson’s CEO to Be Paid Substantially More Than Peers
per Dollar of Shareholder Value Created
One dollar invested in Emerson ten years ago has generated less …but for each dollar of value creation, Emerson’s
shareholder value than one invested in either Emerson’s proxy CEO has been paid 2.5x and 3.1x more than the
peers or the S&P 500… average proxy peer and S&P 500 CEO, respectively
2.0x
EMR $132,627,383
$4.50
$4.21
1.5x
EMR
$3.50 $3.32
$3.00
$2.50 0.4x
$2.15 EMR
($)
$2.00 0.3x
$53,594,618 EMR
$1.50 $42,440,643
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
EMR Proxy Peers S&P 500 EMR Proxy Peers S&P 500
Note(s):
• Source: Bloomberg
• Market Data as of 12/31/2018
33
All But One of Emerson’s Proxy Peers Include a Return Focused Metric
in Long-Term Incentive Compensation…
Return Focused
Company Name LTI Performance Metric
Metric?
NO
Note(s):
• Source: Company proxy filings 34
…Which Correlates To Outperformance Amongst Industrial Companies
Inclusion of return focused metrics … and has correlated to average annual … while companies that use EPS
in company LTI plans has increased in TSR outperformance at or free cash flow measures have
the last five years… those companies… underperformed
90%
2.00% 0.00%
81%
80%
% of Industrial Companies including return metric in LTI
70% -0.50%
(1)
Average Relative Return % (1)
-1.00%
50% 54%
40%
1.00% -1.50%
30%
20% -2.00%
0.50%
10%
-2.50%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TSR
Note(s):
• Source: Goldman Sachs Research analysis of seventy industrial companies 35
1. Average relative return defined as three year rolling average relative TSR for those companies that include contemplated performance measure in LTI plan from January 2012 - December 2018
E M E R S O N I S S E V E R E LY U N D E R VA L U E D
DESPITE BEST-IN-CLASS ASSETS
36
Regardless of Execution and Governance Shortcomings, Emerson
Has Top Tier Automation Assets...
• #1 in Flow Solutions
Software
#1 Advanced Process Control
• #1 in Plant Asset Management #1 Asset Management Software
#1 Loop-Tuning
#1 Simulation
• #2 in Distributed Control systems
Emerson’s position in the Climate value …and has grown in-line with the
…and more commanding
chain affords higher margins and returns industry absent a regulation-driven
market share…
than OEM peers… destocking issue in 2016
5.3%
% Organic Growth
15.0%
Trane
5.0% 8%
-0.1%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Lennox
Other 5%
Emerson Climate Tra ine 66% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
JCI/York
Lennox UTX CC&S (2)
3% Emerson
EMR ClimateOrganic
Compressor Growth (2)
OrganicGrowth
JCI Buildings NA HVAC Industry Units (3)
Note(s):
1. HVAC industry estimates
2. From 2Q17 onward, growth rates based on Emerson’s Climate Tech revenue growth plus F/X rate 38
3. North America HVAC industry unit growth reflects Emerson’s mix of Residential HVAC and Commercial HVAC units
Despite a Best-In-Class Asset Portfolio, Emerson Is Trading Below Each
Relevant Peer in Each Relevant Segment…
Emerson’s consolidated EBITDA multiple of 10.8x is below that of its lowest multiple
segment which accounts for less than 15% of Emerson’s EBITDA
Automation Peers (60% of earnings) Climate Peers (27%) Tools Peer (13%)
16.0x 15.1x
14.8x
13.5x 13.8x
14.0x Average: 13.1x
13.4x Average:
12.0x 11.7x 12.6x
11.1x 11.2x 11.2x
10.8x
10.0x
8.0x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x
Flowserve Rockwell HoneywellROTORK Johnson United Ingersoll Lennox Stanley Black & Decker Emerson
Automation Controls Tech Rand (1) Int'l
Note(s):
• Source: Bloomberg
• Market data as of 9/26/19, one day prior to press reports of the D. E. Shaw group’s involvement with the Company
• All valuation multiples as based on 9/30/2020 metrics 39
1. Climate-only Ingersoll Rand valuation adjusted for spinoff and merger of industrial segment into Gardner Denver
… And the Recent Discount to Sum of The Parts Value is the Steepest it Has Been
Since Emerson’s Bid for Rockwell
Emerson has historically traded at a Sum of The Parts discount but is currently trading a standard
deviation below the average discount to its Sum of The Parts value at an 18% discount
105.0%
100.0%
95.0%
EMR / EMR SOTP %
90.0%
85.0%
80.0%
75.0%
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Ma y-16
Ma y-17
Ma y-18
Ma y-19
Aug-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Aug-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Aug-19
Sep-19
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Ma r-16
Ma r-17
Ma r-18
Ma r-19
Average STDev +1 STDev - 1 EMR/EMR SOTP STDev +2 STDev -2
Note(s):
• Source: Bloomberg
• Market data as of 9/26/19, one day prior to press reports of the D. E. Shaw group’s involvement with the Company
1. Peer group includes Lennox International, Rockwell Automation, Stanley Black & Decker, Ingersoll Rand, Honeywell, United Technologies, ROTORK, Johnson Controls and 40
Flowserve
THE D. E. SHAW GROUP’S PROPOSAL FOR CHANGE
41
The D. E. Shaw Group’s Proposal For Change Could Unlock Substantial Value
for All Emerson Shareholders
42
P U R S U E O P E R AT I O N A L E N H A N C E M E N T A N D C O S T
R AT I O N A L I Z AT I O N P L A N AT E M E R S O N E L E C T R I C
43
1
Top-Down SG&A Benchmarking Suggests That Emerson Can
Reduce SG&A by Nearly $900 million Across Its Enterprise
Emerson has the opportunity to save nearly $900mm and increase EBITDA by
~24% if it reduced its SG&A levels to peer average levels in each of its business lines
25.0%
24.5%
21.4%
20.7%
19.6%
SG&A % of Sales
20.0%
16.3%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Automation Climate Peers Tools Peers (3) EMR EMR
Peers (1) (2) Curre nt Optimized
Note(s):
• Source: Company filings, Bloomberg
1. Average includes Rockwell Automation, ABB, Flowserve, Honeywell and Siemens
2. Average includes Lennox International, Ingersoll Rand, United Technologies and Johnson Controls
44
3. Tools & Home Products peer is Stanley Black & Decker
1
Top-Down Margin Benchmarking in Automation Co. Suggests Emerson
Could Save Over $400 million
Emerson’s Automation Co. can achieve EBITDA
Reaching peer margins at Automation Co. would
margins of ~25% (21% operating margins) if it
increase EBITDA within the segment by nearly 20%
operates at the same profitability as peers
26.0% 3,000
25.5% 2,821
2,500 2,393
24.0%
2,000
EBITDA Margin %
$mm
Adj.
22.0% EBITDA 1,500
Margin(1):
21.7%
20.9%
1,000
20.0%
500
18.0% 0
Emerson Automation Co. Emerson Automation Co. Emerson Automation Co. Emerson Automation Co.
at Peer Margins 2018 EBITDA Pro Forma 2018 EBITDA
Note(s):
• Source: Company filings, Bloomberg
1. Adjusted to reflect eighty basis point charge from Emerson corporate center to Automation Co. 45
1
Bringing Corporate Expenses in-line with the Multi-Industrial Average
Could Increase EBITDA by $200 million
4.0% 700
3.6% 630
3.5% 600
2.5%
400
$mm
% of Sales
2.0%
1.6% 300 279
1.5%
200
1.0%
100
0.5%
0
0.0%
2018 Corporate 2018 Adj. Corporate 2018 Pro Forma
EMR 2018 EMR 2018 Adj. Multi-Industrial Peer
Costs Costs (1) Corporate Costs
Corporate Expense Corporate Expense Average Corporate
% of Sales % of Sales(1) Expense % of Sales
Note(s):
• Source: Company filings
1. Corporate expense adjusted to strip out one time purchase accounting and reflect $120 million quarterly corporate expense run-rate highlighted by Emerson management 46
1
Bottom-up Analysis of Emerson’s Expenses Reveals An Even Greater Savings
Opportunity of Over $1 Billion in Automation and the Corporate Center
EXPENSE ITEM DESCRIPTION & RATIONALE SAVINGS OPPORTUNITY
Corporate Center General • Substantial downsizing of aviation department and associated aircraft $200 million
& Administrative Expense • Eliminate excess corporate G&A activity and push remainder into operating units with a focus on duplicated HR,
Finance, Supply chain and Manufacturing headcount
• Better align executive compensation with shareholder returns
Automation Co. General & • Rationalize organizational matrix which currently includes regional, functional, operational and product lines $140 million
Administrative Expense and promotes replication of G&A functions (Finance/HR/IT/Legal/Admin) down to sub product level
• G&A functional costs exceed accepted median industry benchmarks by an average of 45%
• VP to Non-VP ratios (spans) exceed industry norms by >2x in every area
Automation Co. • Engineering replicated at front-line product levels with duplicated leadership resulting in peak staff in each $170 million
Engineering Function business line, limited sharing of resources and added product complexity
• Engineering should be moved up in the organization layers to a point where commonalities can be leveraged
(product level rather than sub product)
Automation Co. • Marketing occurs at three levels within the Company: Corporate level, Brand level (e.g. Rosemount) and $40 million
Marketing Expense product level (e.g. Rosemount temperature)
• “Marketing is repeated at every layer… they’re everywhere” – Former Emerson Product Manager
Automation Co. • Improve salesforce productivity and increase internal benchmarks $90 million
Salesforce Expense • Current sales per salesperson >50% below accepted industry standards
• 4-5 layers of salesforce with no direct tie to the product line P&L limiting incentive for rigorous sales expense
management and optimization
Automation Co. Indirect • Implement policy changes/controls to bring Emerson indirect spend levels in line with peers $190 million
spend (Travel/Facility/ MRO) • Rooftop consolidation initiatives (at least 22 locations have >1 rooftop and 11 have three or more)
Automation Co. Procurement • Procurement headcount is much larger than comparable procurement organizations $170 million
• “central sourcing added limited value at the brand level and many decisions on who to buy from and where were
made locally” – Former Product Manager
Automation Co. • Assess opportunity to accelerate consolidation of manufacturing sites. ~150 manufacturing sites (six in Houston $140 million
Manufacturing alone)
Automation Company G&A resources appear to …leading to organizational spans that are
be replicated at every layer of the organization… substantially worse than industry norms…
1 CEO
Corporate
G&A
Automation Function
Co. President Execs COO
2
G&A CFO
presence CHRO
CIO
GC Site (Plant)
Brand President
GM
3
Substantial
G&A
presence Function VPs
VP of Finance
Product President VP of HR
4 VP of IT …and a substantial opportunity to reduce costs
Substantial
G&A Temperature VP of Legal and complexity by taking the following steps
presence
PULL FUNCTIONS UP 1-2 LEVELS IN THE ORGANIZATION (BRAND OR SEGMENT
LEVEL) SO THAT LOAD CAN BE BALANCED MORE EFFECTIVELY
Lower level G&A functions
G&A owned by site
REDUCE REDUNDANT RESOURCES
Functions (Operations) at
Sub-Product lowest level
Finance GIVE G&A EXECUTIVES OWNERSHIP OF G&A RESOURCES ENABLING THEM TO
5 President
HR MANAGE STAFFING LEVELS THROUGHOUT
G&A
presence IT
Temperature Legal GIVEN TARGETS TO G&A LEADERS AND TRACK MAINTENANCE
Sensors Admin G&A at the product level represents the
OF TARGETS
majority of Headcount and product leaders
own G&A activity, but not their cost
Note(s):
• Source: Company filings; proprietary analysis by leading consulting firm based in part on comprehensive review of publicly available headcount and salary data from online employment-oriented services
that covers over 80% of Emerson G&A employees and 90% of Emerson’s marketing employees; industry expert interviews; the D. E. Shaw group proprietary estimates; CEB and APQC published SG&A
benchmarks
48
1 Emerson Can Take Immediate Steps to Capture Savings
2. Simplification of organizational matrix within Automation Co. to limit duplication of G&A functions
49
P U R S U E A S E PA R AT I O N O F E M E R S O N E L E C T R I C I N T O
A P U R E P L AY I N D U S T R I A L A U T O M AT I O N C O M PA N Y A N D
A C L I M AT E T E C H N O L O G Y- F O C U S E D C O M PA N Y
50
2
Emerson Would Unlock Value Through an Immediate Separation of Automation
Co. and Climate Co.
A breakup alone could generate ~$13/share - $23/share of incremental equity value for shareholders
(20% - 35% upside to Emerson’s current stock price)
Note(s):
• Market data as of 9/26/19, one day prior to press reports of the D. E. Shaw group’s involvement with the Company
1. Peer group includes ROK, FLS, ROR and HON
2. Climate Company comprised of Emerson's Climate Technologies and Tools & Home Products segments
3. Peer group includes LII, UTX, IR Climate and JCI
4. SWK used as primary pure play competitor
5. Standup costs estimated at ~$61mm based on break-up precedent data points
6. 2020 Emerson consensus EBITDA as of 9/26/2019 less estimated standup costs 51
2 Emerson’s Automation Co. and Climate Co. Have Limited End Market Overlap…
Emerson’s Automation Co. services … none of which overlap directly with Emerson
a wide array of end markets… Climate Co.’s served markets
Note(s):
• Source: Emerson Investor Presentations 52
2 … And Limited Operational Synergy…
EMERSON’S AUTOMATION CO. AND CLIMATE CO. HAVE LITTLE TO NO OVERLAP ALONG THE
FOLLOWING FUNCTIONAL LINES LEADING TO LIMITED DIS-SYNERGIES FROM A SEPARATION:
TECHNOLOGY PLATFORMS / IT
• Limited underlying R&D and technology overlap
• Currently independent R&D
SUPPLY CHAIN
• Each division has adequate scale (~$12bn in Automation Co. sales and ~$7bn in Climate Co. sales)
• Limited supply chain overlap
MANUFACTURING FOOTPRINT
• Footprint not integrated
SALESFORCE
• Separate salesforce for each business segment
Note(s):
• Source: Interviews with former Emerson employees and proprietary research 53
2 … Yet Emerson Has Maintained Its Current Portfolio Structure…
1. Sharing of technology and best practices • “Sharing of best practices” is not a good reason to maintain a holding company
• “I still see a lot of integration capability, a lot of value-creation capability between the 2 corporate structure that costs shareholders anywhere between $14bn and $21bn of
businesses… So there's logic to have them together.” value
– David Farr, Emerson 2019 Analyst Day
• Conversations with former employees suggest that institutional silos prevent the
• “There's a lot sharing of information, technology, customer space going back and forth.
sharing of best practices between the segments
So it's -- there is still lot of capabilities for us to continue to leverage”
– David Farr, Emerson 2019 Analyst Day
• “The technology embedded in a lot of process instruments is technology that Bob can use
within their systems, too. Now it has to be, obviously, simplified, dumbed down a little bit
and also cheaper because it's a different application”
– David Farr, Emerson 2019 Analyst Day
2. Overlap between the two segments in Food & Beverage and • End markets highlighted by management make up less than 5% of revenue for the
Life Sciences end markets Automation Company
• “Same thing with the customers. We have several customers in particular around the food
and beverage, around the life science area. They're using -- will cross back and forth • Even within Food & Beverage, the Automation Company is servicing food
relative to the capabilities that we offer for our total solutions package” – David Farr, manufacturers while the Climate Company services food retail and food service
Emerson 2019 Analyst Day
3. Company has not reached a valuation point where the split is • Emerson’s discount to its sum of the parts value is over 20% today and provides a
compelling for shareholders compelling valuation justification to split the Company
• “As you know, we have always looked at businesses on ongoing basis, and when they
do peak in value, we will deal with that issue. I do not see that peak valuation in these 2 • Current Emerson shareholders will benefit from any future value creation
businesses right now.” generated by a spinoff
– David Farr, Emerson 2019 Analyst Day
• “Peak value” unlikely to be achieved in conglomerate structure
4. Emerson suggests leaving the decision to Emerson’s next leader • The succession decision should be driven by structure of the Company,
• “We note that Mr. Farr left the door open for a potential two-way split before his not the other way around
2021/2022 retirement, but his intention is to leave that decision to his successor.”
– RBC Capital Analyst
54
2 … Despite There Being Substantial Potential Benefits to Separation
Separation is a means to an end to capture the complex operational enhancement and cost
rationalization plan in the D. E. Shaw group’s Proposal for Change
55
2 Even Emerson Management Has Made Strong Case For Separation in the Recent Past
Emerson’s comments during its 2015 Strategic Repositioning call make the case that Automation Solutions
are completely different businesses with different end markets that use different technology
Q: “So just stepping back, why did you stop at two segments and not go to even one?” – Bernstein Analyst
A: “Because these are two distinct end markets that we're looking at from a customer perspective, Steve. And from my perspective, the Process and
Industrial market, the technologies, everything you're dealing with, the channels are completely different than the Commercial and Residential
space that you go after. So it is a completely different segment from a market. That's how we look at it, from a market” – David Farr
Q: “Dave, I meant more, just thinking about Emerson as a continued, broader multi-industry company as opposed to focusing even further and separating out
climate or separating out the second market, the commercial and resi part” – Bernstein Analyst
A: “From my perspective, if I could just have one report set of numbers, I'd do that. But I think from my perspective I can rationalize and debate with
anybody. I look at the end markets, which I think are key issues and what investments and the strategies you look – they are run differently” –
David Farr
Note(s):
• Source: Company transcripts 56
2 Separation Would Create Leading Standalone Franchises in Automation and Climate
Automation Co. = “Best in Class” Process Automation Climate Co. = Climate Focused Industrial Business with
Franchise with a Growing Discrete Business commanding market share in HVAC Compressor
• Separation would create a best-in-class pure play automation asset • Separation provides investors access to Emerson’s high quality
with attractive characteristics Copeland compressor business without oil & gas end market
exposure
• Automation Co. would have unmatched scale: Emerson’s automation
business is #1 or #2 in every business in which it competes • Attractive characteristics of compressor business (~70% of Climate
• #1 in Measurement and Analytical Instrumentation Co.)
• #1 in Valves • Market Share: Emerson has high market share in HVAC
• #2 in Distributed Control systems compressor market
• Pricing Power: Highest value part of HVAC system
• Scarcity Value: Creates one of the only pure play industrial • Substantial Barriers to entry (Scale and Technology &
automation businesses of scale in the public market outside of Engineering)
Rockwell, Flowserve and ROTORK • Joint Venture with key OEM customers
• Replacement exposure: Less cyclical in downturn
• 2019E EBITDA: $2.5bn; #225 S&P 500 Rank by EBITDA • 2019E EBITDA: $1.6bn; #303 S&P 500 Rank by Revenue
• 58,000 employees; #126 S&P 500 Rank by Employees • 27,500 employees; #214 by S&P 500 Rank by Employees
57
2 Sell Side Analysts Agree That There is Value in a Separation
Based on a SOTP analysis we see an $77 PT and 30% potential Our sum-of-the-parts shows a meaningful 18% implied upside at
upside to current levels this time, which we believe could trigger increased clamoring for such
a value-unlocking move
Trading at a Discount to SOTP: EMR is trading at a 20% discount Sum of the parts provides ~20-25% upside: We don’t expect SOTP
on our sum-of-the-parts valuation construct… We do not see to be the dominant valuation methodology exiting the analyst day…
significant dis-synergies in a “breakup” scenario as there is modest what we do expect is that the discount to the sum of the parts
overlap between Automation and Commercial & Residential Solutions narrows as it becomes a more credible potential track for the
segments. company. CEO Dave Farr is unlikely to retire in the near future… we
would expect he leaves whoever the ascendant management is with
fewer difficult choices on managing a disparate portfolio. In this period
of deconglomerization, this is a well worn path
We think there is some possibility that the Company further simplifies its Split Emerson into 2 Companies: Strategically, we would support the
portfolio at some point given the lack of obvious synergies between separation of Emerson into 2 companies. There would appear limited to
the two remaining platforms no operational synergy between both divisions. On a sum-of-the-parts
basis, our analysis suggests $86 of value – representing 17%
upside from the current Emerson share price
58
2 Ingersoll Rand’s Decision To Spin Off Industrial Unit Provides a Blueprint
0% 0.8%
… and the market has rewarded Ingersoll’s
Climate assets with a higher valuation
-5% 14.0x 12.5x
12.0x 10.7x
9
9
9
19
9
19
9
-1
l-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
6.0x
r-
n-
ay
ay
ay
ay
un
ul
ul
ul
un
un
ay
Ju
Ap
Ju
-J
-J
-J
M
M
M
-J
-J
J
5-
-
12
19
26
7-
-
-
26
3-
4.0x
14
21
28
10
17
24
31
2.0x
Ingersoll Rand S&P 500 XLI 0.0x
Pre-Deal Climate Co. Valuation Current Climate Co. Valuation
Note(s):
• Source: Bloomberg and Company filings
• Market data as of 7/31/19 59
12
Combination of The D. E. Shaw Group’s Proposals Could Generate
Over $20 Billion of Incremental Equity Value For Shareholders…
Creation of two standalone companies that can each optimize its profitability and eliminate excess corporate
costs could generate over $20bn of equity value for shareholders and over 50% upside to Emerson’s stock price
$120.00
$100.00
$14
$5
$80.00
$18
Share Price
$60.00
$101
$40.00
$64
$20.00
$0.00
Current Price Automation Business Corporate Expense SOTP Valuation Upside(3) Pro Forma Share Price
Margin Uplift (1) Reduction (2)
Note(s):
• Market data as of 9/26/19, one day prior to press reports of the D. E. Shaw group’s involvement with the Company
1. Assumes Emerson Automation Co. captures entire $940 million of savings based on bottom analysis of Automation Co. expenses
2. Assumes Emerson corporate center cost reduced by $200 million informed by bottom-up and top down analysis
3. Assumes Emerson Automation Co. and Climate Co. trade in-line with selected peer averages
• Compounding / multiplicative impact spread equally across each of the three buckets of upside 60
12 … And Can Be Achieved with the Following Three-Step Value Creation Plan
• Salesforce productivity
• Manufacturing
• Footprint consolidation
61
I M P R O V E C O R P O R AT E G O V E R N A N C E
AT E M E R S O N E L E C T R I C
62
3 Emerson Should Implement the Following Governance Measures
A. Emerson should move to annually elected directors B. Emerson should incorporate returns focused
with a simple change to its Bylaws targets in its performance plan
• Emerson’s Articles of Incorporation provide the By-laws with • Emerson’s current short-term incentive compensation is
the flexibility to adjust the following key items: fully discretionary
1. The term length of each class of directors
2. The number of classes with expiring terms each year • Emerson’s current long-term incentive structure is driven by
achievement of EPS growth (60%) and Free cash flow growth
• Language from the Articles of Incorporation:
(40%) targets, rewarding growth over returns
• “Except as otherwise provided in the By-laws with
respect to implementation of this Article 5, Directors shall • Emerson should incorporate targets that are tied directly to
be elected to hold office for a term of three years, with shareholder returns and will not reward the Company for value
the term of office one class expiring each year” destructive growth:
• Relative Total Shareholder Return
• Emerson’s Board should amend Company By-laws to shorten • Return on Assets
the term length of each Director from three years to one • Return on Invested Capital
year, with the terms of office expiring each year so all • Return on Tangible Capital
directors are up for election • Rockwell Example: “Performance shares are designed to reward
management for our relative performance compared to the
• Voting shareholders have shown overwhelming support (98%) companies in the S&P 500® Index over a three-year period. The
for proposals to de-stagger the Board and move to annually payouts of performance shares granted will be made based on our
elected directors. The proposed fix is an easy way to heed total shareowner return compared to the companies in the S&P 500®
shareholder concerns Index over a three-year period”
63
E M E R S O N ’ S P E R F O R M A N C E C L E A R LY D E M O N S T R AT E S T H AT
CHANGE IS NEEDED
64