Accepted Manuscript

MCMC Bayesian spatial filtering for hedonic models in real estate markets

P. Gargallo, J.A. Miguel, M.J. Salvador

PII: S2211-6753(17)30193-8
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2017.07.010
Reference: SPASTA 252

To appear in: Spatial Statistics

Received date : 2 March 2016

Accepted date : 25 July 2017

Please cite this article as: Gargallo, P., Miguel, J.A., Salvador, M.J., MCMC Bayesian spatial
filtering for hedonic models in real estate markets. Spatial Statistics (2017),
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2017.07.010

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The traditional hedonic model postulates that housing prices depend on their
characteristics and their location. However, this model assumes a constant relationship
between the dependent and the independent variables. This assumption is unrealistic
because empirical studies have shown that the regression coefficients depend on the
housing location. For this reason, it is necessary to use models with spatially varying
coefficients. The approaches proposed in the literature used to estimate this type of
models do not incorporate the uncertainty associated with the estimation and selection
of models and/or are computationally expensive. To improve these aspects, this paper
proposes spatial filtering techniques to parsimoniously model the spatial dependencies
of the hedonic coefficients and an adaptive MCMC algorithm of Bayesian variable
selection to select the most appropriate filters. The method is illustrated through an
application to the real estate market of Zaragoza, and a comparison with alternative
procedures is conducted. Our results show that our valuation methodology has better
goodness of fit and predictive performance properties than alternative methods.
Although our proposal assumes normality and homoscedasticity of the model error
distribution, the method is easy to implement and not very computationally demanding,
which makes this approach attractive and useful from a practical viewpoint.

#21*,"- Bayesian Inference; Variable Selection; Adaptive MCMC; Hedonic

Models; Real Estate Market; Spatial Filtering; Geographically Weighted Regression.




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