2020 Non-Fatal Shootings Analysis
2020 Non-Fatal Shootings Analysis
Background Information
Crime rates are often expressed as the ratio of crime per 100,000 capita for large geographic areas, such as major cities.
However, crime rates can be misleading because of the significant variations within a large area.
Location Density maps, commonly referred to as “heat maps” or “hot-spot maps” often do not present the full picture of
where crimes are occurring due to the variations in population densities and housing units, especially in metropolitan
areas. Areas where housing units are physically located closer to each other are typically over-represented, while
subdivisions and business districts are often under-represented.
The process of analyzing U.S. Census Bureau population data in relation to smaller geographic areas was performed using
Geographic Information System (GIS) software while following common industry practices and methodologies.
Summary of Results
The City of Columbus is approximately 228.87 square miles and has an estimated population of 898,553 as of July 1, 2019.
The corporate boundary of the City of Columbus falls into at least a portion of 225 different census tracts. At least one
non-fatal shooting occurred in 174 of these census tracts. Because census tract boundaries do not directly align with the
corporate boundary, population estimates for these smaller areas were generated by using the percentage of overlap
between datasets. For example, if 75% of a census tract with an estimated population of 10,000 is within the corporate
boundary, the estimated Columbus population for that particular census tract would be approximately 7,500. This same
methodology was also used to calculate the estimated population values for other common geographies.
In 2020, there were 1,435 non-fatal shootings throughout the City of Columbus where a victim was shot or an occupied
structure was hit by gun-fire. Based on this information, the citywide probability of a person being shot or being in a
structure that was hit by gun-fire was 1 / 626. When the data was further broken down into other geographies, the range
of probabilities show significant variations throughout the City of Columbus as shown below:
Probabilities for a particular area were calculated using the following formulas:
1. ([Total Number of Non-Fatal Shootings]/[Estimated Population in the given area])x1,000 = Crime Rate per 1,000 capita
2. p = (1,000 / [Crime Rate per 1,000 capita]) = Probability per capita shown in 1 / p format
Location Density of Non-Fatal Shootings
January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020
§
¦
¨ !
71
§
¦
¨
!
270
!
! ! ! !
!
!
! !
! ! !
!
! !
! !
! ! !! !
! !
! !
!
! ! ! ! !!
! !
! !
!! !!!
! !
! !! !!
! !
!!
!
! !!
!
!
! ! ! !
! !
!
! ! !
!
!
! !
! !
! ! !
! ! !
!
! !! ! !! !
! ! ! ! ! !
! !
! !! ! ! !
! ! !
!!!! !
! !! ! !
! !
! !
§
!
¦
¨ 71 !
!
!
!
!! !
!
§
¦
¨
!! !! !!
270
!
! ! !
! !!
! !
!!!
!
! ! !
! ! !
! ! !!
! ! ! ! !! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
! !
!!!! !!!!! ! !!!
!
!!
!
! ! !! ! !! ! !
! ! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! !
!! ! !
! !! ! ! !
! !! ! !
! !!!
!
! ! ! !!! !!! ! ! !! !
!!
! !!! !! ! !! ! !!!
! ! ! ! !!
!! ! ! !! ! ! ! !
! ! !!
!!!! !!
!
! ! !
!
! !!!!! ! !
!
!
! ! !! ! !
! ! !
!! ! !
! !! !! ! !!
!!! ! !! !!
§
! !
¦
¨
!! !! !! ! ! !!
!
670
!!
! ! ! ! !!
! ! ! ! ! ! !
§
! ! ! !
¦
¨
!! ! ! ! !!
!!
270
!
! ! !!! !
! !!
! !
!
! ! !! ! ! ! ! !!
! ! !
!! !! !
! !! ! !
!! ! ! !! !! !
!!!!
! ! !!
!
! !
! !!!! ! !
! !
!! !! ! !! !!
!! !
!! ! !
! ! ! ! !!
! ! !! !!
! ! ! ! !!!! !
! !
! ! !
! !
! !! !! !
! ! !
! !
§
¦
¨
! !
70
! ! ! ! !
! ! ! !
! ! !
! ! ! ! !
!! !
!! !! ! ! !
§
! ! !!! !
¦
¨
!! ! !!
! !
!!
670
!! !!! ! !
!!! !! ! ! ! !
! !
!!
! !! !
! ! ! !! ! !
!
! !! ! !
!
! !! ! !
! ! ! !
! !
! ! ! !
! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! !
§
! !
¦
¨
! ! ! ! ! ! !! !
70
! ! ! !
!
! ! ! !! ! !!! !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! !!! !! !
! ! !! !!! ! ! ! !!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! !!! !! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !! !
!!! !! !!! !! !
! !
!!
!
!
!!! !! ! ! !
! !! ! ! ! ! !
! !
!! ! ! ! !! ! !! !
! !!! ! !! ! !! !!!!! ! !!!! ! ! ! ! ! !
!! ! ! !! !
!!! ! !!!!! !! !! !! !! !
!
!!
!
!
!! ! ! !!! !!!!
!! !
!!!
!! ! ! !
!!
! !!
! !
! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!
!
!! ! !
! !
! ! !! ! !!! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !!
! !
!
! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! !
!!! !!! ! !!! ! ! ! ! !
!! !!
!
!
!! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! !! ! !
!
! ! ! !
!!
! !
! ! ! ! !! ! ! !!
! ! !! ! ! ! ! !
! ! !
! ! ! !
!!
! !!!
! ! !! ! !!! ! !
! ! ! ! !!
!
!
!!
!
! !! !! ! ! ! ! !
! !! ! ! ! ! !
!!
§
!! ! !
¦
¨
!! ! !! !
70
!! ! ! ! !! !
! ! ! ! ! !! ! !
!
! ! !!
!
! ! ! ! !
! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! !
! !! ! !! ! ! !
! !! ! ! !
! ! ! !
!!
! ! !! ! ! ! !
! !! ! ! !!
!
! !! !! ! ! !! ! ! !! ! ! ! !
! !
! ! !
! !
! !
!!
! !!
! !! ! ! !!
!
! ! ! !! !
! ! ! ! !! !
! ! !
!!
§
¦
¨
! ! !
!! !
71
! ! ! !
Map Legend
! ! ! ! !
! !
!
!! ! !
! !!!! ! ! !
!
! ! !! !! !
! ! ! ! ! !
!
Non-Fatal Shootings
! !
! !
! ! ! ! !
! !
Location Density
! ! !
!
! ! !
!
! !
! !
Low
! !
!
!
§
¦
¨
!
270 !
!
Medium
High
City of Columbus
County Boundaries
Interstates
Major Roadways Map Created By: Communications Bureau | GIS/CAD Unit - LMW January 21, 2021
Above Average Probabilities of
Non-Fatal Shootings by Zip Code
January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020
43035
43065 43240
§
¦
¨71
43235
43017
§
¦
¨
270
43081
43085
43016 43229
43231 43054
43214
43220
§
¦
¨71
43224 43230
43026
§
¦
¨
270
43221 43202
43211 43004
43210 43219
§
¦
¨670
§
¦
¨ 270
43212 43201
§
¦
¨70
§
¦43215
¨ 670 43203 43213
43228 43204 43222
43205
§
¦
¨ 70
43209
43227
43068
43206
43119 43223
§
¦
¨ 70
43232
Map Legend
Above Average Probabilities of
§
¦
¨71
43147
Non-Fatal Shootings by Zip Code
1/100 to 1/199
43207
1/200 to 1/299
1/300 to 1/399
43123
1/400 to 1/499
1/500 to 1/599
§
¦
¨
270
43110
1/600 to 1/699
Zip Code Boundaries
43125
City of Columbus
County Boundaries
43137
Interstates
Major Roadways 43217
Street Centerlines
Map Created By: Communications Bureau | GIS/CAD Unit - LMW January 21, 2021
Probability of a Non-Fatal Shooting by Zip Code
January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020
§
¦
¨ 71
§
¦
¨270
§
¦
¨ 71
§
¦
¨
270
North Linden
Northeast
1/85
South
Linden
Milo-
North
Central
§
¦
¨670
East Columbus §
¦
¨ 270
Italian Grogan
§
¦
¨ 70
§
¦
¨ 670
Village
Near East
Franklinton
Greater Hilltop
§
¦
¨ 70
Livingston
Area
Mid East
South Side §
¦
¨ 70
Map Legend
§
¦
¨71
1/500 to 1/599
1/600 to 1/699
Community Boundaries
City of Columbus
County Boundaries
Interstates
Major Roadways
Street Centerlines
Map Created By: Communications Bureau | GIS/CAD Unit - LMW January 21, 2021
Probability of a Non-Fatal Shooting by Community
January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020
* Community Names and their respective boundaries were defined by the City of Columbus
Above Average Probabilities of
Non-Fatal Shootings by Census Tract
January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020
115.61
124
63.93 63.94
63.91 70.41
70.44
70.48
§
¦
¨ 71
63.83 63.84
70.43 69.90
70.47
63.86
63.92
§
¦
¨ 270
§
¦
¨ 270
79.52
78.11
4.10
2.20
4.20
3.10 3.20
3.30 8.10
8.20
77.10
75.34
75.51
106.01
78.20
1/81
5
7.10 75.20 1/90 74.24
106.02 6 9.10 9.20
79.33
11.10 10 73.96
7.20 75.50
11.22 75.11 75.12
12 7.30
79.41
79.53 79.54
19.02
78.30
19.01
11.21
18.10
18.20
17 16
13
14
15 25.10
§
¦
¨ 670
26
§
¦
¨ 270
73.95
20 22 23
82.42
§
¦
¨ 70
81.42
82.41
43
85
§
¦
¨ 32
670
21
30
29
36
28 25.20
27.10
27.40
27.30
92.10
93.90
1/94 93.61
93.62 93.81
81.41 82.10
45 42
38 37 27.50
1/59
40
50 53 54.10 27.60
47 54.20 27.70
46.10 46.20 49 52 93.11
56.10 55 93.31 93.21 93.22
81.32
81.63
83.11
83.21
48.10 48.20
83.30
51 57
58.10
56.20 59
87.10 §
¦
¨ 70 27.80
93.32
93.33
93.34
93.23
93.12
93.71
81.62
81.64
83.50
83.12
83.60
83.22
1/95 83.40
58.20
61
60
87.20
87.30
93.36 93.37
93.25 93.72
93.74
§
¦
¨ 70
327.02
93.26 327.01
1/500 to 1/599
1/600 to 1/699
94.50
Census Tract Boundaries 95.90
City of Columbus
County Boundaries
Interstates
103
Major Roadways
Street Centerlines
Map Created By: Communications Bureau | GIS/CAD Unit - LMW January 21, 2021
Probability of a Non-Fatal Shooting by Census Tract
January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020
§
¦
¨ 71
§
¦
¨ 270
! !
! ! ! !
!
!
! !
!
! !
!
!
!
! !
!
! ! !
! ! !
!
! !
! !
! ! ! !
! !
! !
! !! !
! !
!! !
! !! ! !
! ! ! !
! ! !
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
! !
! !
!
! !
! !
!
! ! !
! !
!
! !
!!
! !! !
!
! ! ! ! ! !
!
! !
!! !! !
! !
!! ! ! ! !
!!!
!
! ! !
! !
§
¦
¨
!
71
!
!!
!
!
!
!
§
!
¦
¨
! !
270
!
! ! !
!
! ! !
! !
!! ! !
! !!!
! !
!
! !! ! ! !
! !! !
! ! ! !
! ! !
! !
!
! !
! !
!
! !! ! ! !!!! ! ! !!
!!
!
! !
! !
! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !
!! ! ! !
! ! ! !
! ! ! ! !
!! ! ! ! !
!
!
! !
! ! !! !
! !! !
! ! !! ! !
! !! ! ! ! !!
!
!!
! ! ! !! !!
! !
! !
! !! !! !!
!!!! !
!! ! ! !! !
!
! !!! ! !!
! ! ! !
! ! !!!
!
! ! !
! !! !! ! ! !
! ! ! !
! ! !!!
! ! !
! !! ! !
! ! !! !
!
!
! ! !!
!!
! !!
! ! ! !
!!! !!! ! !
!
!
! !! !
! !
!
!
!
! ! !
! ! ! ! !
§
!
¦
¨
! !! ! !! !
§
!! !
¦
¨
! !
270
!
670
! !
! ! !
! !!! ! !! !
!
! ! ! ! !! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
!! !
! !
! !! !
! ! ! ! ! ! !
!! !
! !
!! ! !
!! !! ! !!
! ! !
!
! ! ! ! !!
! !! ! !! !
! !! ! ! !!
!
! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! !
!
! ! ! !! !! !
! ! !
! ! !! !! ! !
! ! !!
§
! !
¦
¨
! !
70
! ! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
! !! !
! ! ! ! ! ! !
! !
§
!
¦
¨
! !!
! !!! ! !! !!
!!
670
! ! ! !
! !!
! ! ! !
!! !! !! ! !
! !!
! !
! ! !
! !
!! ! ! !
!
! !
! ! !! !
! !
!
!
!!
! !
!
! !
! ! ! ! !
! ! !
! ! ! !! !
! ! ! ! !
!
! ! !
! ! !! ! !
! !! !! !
!
! ! ! !! ! ! !
! !!! !! !! ! ! ! ! !
! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! !
! ! ! !! ! !
!! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! !
! ! ! ! ! !
!
! ! !
! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! !! !! !! !!!!
!
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !
!! ! ! ! ! !
! !! ! ! ! ! ! !
! !! ! !! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! !
!!! ! ! !!
!
!
!!
!! ! !!! !
! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
§
! !! ! !! !!
! !
¦
¨
! ! !! ! !
!! ! ! ! ! ! !
!
70
!! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !!!! ! !! !!
!
! !!! !! ! !! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! !
! !! ! ! !! ! !! !! !
! ! !
!
! ! ! ! !!! ! !
!!
!!
!!!! !! ! ! !!! ! ! ! !!
!! ! ! ! !! !! !!
!
! ! !! !
! ! !! !! ! !
!
! ! ! ! !
!
!! !
!
! ! ! !! !! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! !
!
! ! ! ! !!
!!!! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!
! ! !! !
!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! !!!
!
!
! ! ! ! !
§
! !! ! ! !! ! !
¦
¨
!! ! ! ! !
!
70
! ! ! ! ! ! !!
! ! ! !!
! ! !
!
! ! !
! ! !
!
! ! ! ! ! !!
!
! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! !
! !! ! !
! ! ! !
! !! ! !
! !
! ! ! !
! ! ! !
! ! ! ! !!
! !! ! ! !
!
! ! ! ! ! !
! !!!
! ! ! ! !!
!!
!
! ! ! ! !!
!
! !! ! ! !!
! ! !
! ! ! !! ! !
! ! ! ! !
!
! ! ! !! !
! !
!
!! !
§
¦
¨
! !
71
! !!! !
! ! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
!
!! ! !
! ! !! !! !
! ! !
!! !
!
!!
!
!
! ! ! !
Trend Pattern
! !
! ! !
! !
!
! ! !
!
!
!
! ! !
!
!
Non-Fatal Shootings
! !
!
!
!
!
! !! !
!
!
!
City of Columbus
County Boundaries
Interstates
Major Roadways
Street Centerlines
Map Created By: Communications Bureau | GIS/CAD Unit - LMW January 22, 2021
Emerging Hot Spot Analysis
Background Information
The Emerging Hot-Spot Analysis aggregated 1,435 Non-Fatal Shooting data points into 9,118 fishnet grid locations
over 26 time step intervals. Each fishnet grid location is ¼ mile by ¼ mile square covering the City of Columbus
corporate boundary. Each time step interval was 2 weeks in duration resulting in the total time period being
evaluated as 52 weeks. Of the 9,118 fishnet grid locations, 666 (7.30%) contained at least one data point for at least
one time step interval. There is a statistically significant increase in the Non-Fatal Shooting data point counts over
time.
Summary of Results
539 of the 666 (80.93%) of the fishnet grid locations detected a hot spot trend as defined below:
New Hot Spot The most recent time step interval is hot for the first
time
Consecutive Hot Spot All time step intervals are hot throughout the duration of
the time period being analyzed
Persistent Hot Spot At least 90% of the time step intervals are hot
Historical Hot Spot At least 90% of the time step intervals are hot, but the
most recent time step intervals are not
Intensifying Hot Spot At least 90% of the time step intervals are hot and
becoming hotter
Diminishing Hot Spot At least 90% of the time step intervals are hot and
becoming less hot over time
Sporadic Hot Spot Some of the time step intervals are hot
8 New Hot Spots, 56 Consecutive Hot Spots, and 475 Sporadic Hot Spots were detected.
Probability of Non-Fatal Shootings Summary
January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
45
50
40
Week Number 1
Week Number 2
Week Number 3
Week Number 4
Week Number 5
Week Number 6
Week Number 7
Week Number 8
Week Number 9
Week Number 10
Week Number 11
Week Number 12
Week Number 13
Week Number 14
Week Number 15
Week Number 16
Week Number 17
Week Number 18
Week Number 19
Week Number 20
Week Number 21
Week Number 22
Week Number 23
Week Number 24
Week Number 25
Week Number 26
Week Number 27
Week Number 28
Week Number 29
Week Number 30
Week Number 40
Week Number 41
Week Number 42
Week Number 43
Week Number 44
Week Number 45
Week Number 46
R² = 0.3707
Week Number 47
Week Number 48
Non-Fatal Shootings
Week Number 49
y = 0.4284x + 15.706
Week Number 50
Linear Regression Trendline
Week Number 51
Week Number 52