Le Redknapp de vacances Français

The Redknapp is the classic in-play correct score trade. Now it’s back revised, updated and
more profitable than ever. After ‘arry’s summer vacation to Poland and the Ukraine was
cancelled. He hopped on the Eurostar and headed to the south of France for a break. Inspired
by the fine wines and cuisine he’s revisited his trading strategy for us and now he’s relieved
of his responsibilities in North London we’ve got him for the new season, this time with a
continental twist. Ok we haven’t really got ‘arry on staff (though his accountant’s been very
useful) but we do have a trade named in his honour. The Redknapp had been around for
almost 5 years old now. In that time the markets have changed so we’ve updated it with a
French spin and renamed it Le Redknapp

Why it works
At the heart of the strategy is a time degradation trade on the current correct score line. The
key to the success of the trade is in match selection and we’re looking for cagey low scoring
affairs. With the strategy, insurance positions are taken to minimise risk as well as provide
additional income from educated punts. By trading price movements in the right games Le
Redknapp provides the antithesis to the traditional high scoring trades.

Where’s theEDGE?
The edge is in match selection and spotting the 15% of games that will finish under 1.5 goals.
By utilising good cover positions liabilities are kept low. The aim of the trade is to be at break
even by half-time with an exit planned for 70 minutes with a good profit. The hit rate of
winning trades is excellent with 78% profitable last season. For coming season we’ll be
trading the French markets in the chat room with the intention to increase that percentage
further.

How it’s played

Le Redknapp is played with the majority staked on the 0-0 score line, though entry is delayed
until the price has begun to fall (5-10mins in some matches). The trade also takes positions on
1-0 and 0-1 markets which will drop in price in line with the 0-0. A final trading position is
taken on 1-1 to give us opportunities in-play. Insurance positions are taken in the first goals
market to protect the opening stake on 11-20 minutes and 21-30 minutes. This gives us 20
minutes of reduced risk to build a profit
base in the correct score market. Punting positions are added on the 41-51 and 81-90
(includes injury time) where often a goal will be scored in a tight match.

In-play, we make lays on the current score line to reduce the overall liability; cover for the
cost of insurance positions and goal time punts. As the game develops additional correct score
positions are taken to maximise profits when a goal comes. Le Redknapp can be played either
on the full-time correct score market, half time correct score market or both. It is also
compatible for use with the Jonah, CS cash machine and a variation of the Desmond.

The Aristotle
This is one of the most consistently profitable Football trades in the Sports Trading Edge
arsenal. The Aristotle is essentially an over 2.5 goals trade with insurance positions on Under
1.5 and the correct score market.

Where’s theEDGE?
The edge comes from statistical research, the probability of over 2.5 goals and entering the
market when the price of over 2.5 goals is in our favour.

How it’s played

We’re looking for matches where there is a good statistical chance of both teams scoring, yet
a price on over 2.5 goals of at least @1.90 (ideally higher). Where the price of over 2.5 is
lower than @1.7 there is no value for us so we must wait to get involved.

Using our usual stake of £25 we split it:

58% Stake of £14.50 Backed on over 2.5 goals
14% Stake of £3.50 Backed on 1-1
28% Stake of £7 Backed on under 1.5 goals

As long as there are no goals, the price of under 1.5 goals will drop creating profit for us to
offset some of the loss of over 2.5 goals moving against us. After 23 minutes we’ll aim to
green U1.5 as statistically first goals are score most often from the 24 th minute of a match.
As the goals go in we can remove our liability on over 2.5 goals hedging out for a profit after
the second goal. If the underdog scores first we can lay off half our stake on 1-1 to reduce our
liability on other scores to £1.75. If it goes 1-1 we lay off again for around £6.75 to create a
scratch on 1-1 and £5.00 on any other score line. When a match goes our way we can expect a
return of between 20-80%.

Match Selection
The key to success in football is matching the right trades to the right games. To enable us to
consistently do this we research key metrics ahead of each match we select.

The criteria we use:

Home side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O2.5, %U2.5, strength of
attack/defence
Away side: Average goals for, against, combined average, % O2.5, %U2.5, strength of
attack/defence
We then calculate the combined average score and the probability of over 2.5 goals. Where
the probably is greater than 60% we have a tradingEDGE and will look for prices of the right
value to recommend a trade. If we find a match that we want to trade but with a price below
@1.70, we have the option to lay under 4.5 goals to catch any early goals whilst we wait to
enter the market when O2.5 reaches @2.10.

What’s the downside?

A bore draw of 0-0 will hurt us the most so we can take optional insurance to cover half our
stake with a lay of over 0.5 goals which at an average of 1.07 will cost us just £0.88.

The Socrates
A variation of the Aristotle which we’ve added to our portfolio to help maximise profits and
reduce
the downside whilst removing the need for as much in play management.
Why it works
Using the same match selection criteria as the Aristotle and the Desmond the BTTS becomes
a very
simple trade for beginners to follow. We take our positions in the market at the start of the
match
and only need to make any moves if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes. Because of its
simplicity it is possible to trade multiple matches at the same time.
Where’s theEDGE?
The edge here is in match selection, the statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and the
regularity of
both teams scoring. We are looking for a double win on two markets BTTS (both teams to
score) and
over 2.5 goals to maximise our profits. Even in a match where side concedes 6 goals there
will often
get a consolation goal to give us our double win.
How it’s played
We are looking for matches where the price of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are @1.80 or above.
Using a
£25 stake we enter the market pre-match with the following stakes:
_ Stake of £10 Backed on BTTS @1.80+
_ Stake of £10 Backed on over 2.5 goals @1.80+
_ Stake of £2 Backed on 0-0
_ Stake of £3 Backed on 1-1
We will let this trade run to its conclusion unless the score is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 minutes. If 0-
0 we
will green up 0-0 and scratch 1-1 taking a hedged red on over 2.5 goals and BTTS. If 1-0 we
green up
1-1, scratch (or take a small loss on over 2.5 goals) and red BTTS. Any other score line and
we have a
tradingEDGE so can let the trade run until 80 minutes where we can reassess. We can either
exit the
trade or stay in with a probably win one either, 1-1, over 2.5 or BTTS and ideally both Over
2.5 goals
and BTTS.
Where’s the downside
The downside is no goal or goals or two goals to one side. Taking insurance to cover half our
stake
with a lay of over 0.5 goals will protect us from a 0-0 draw. A small back of 2-0 and 3-0 at 1-
0 will
minimise the loss of a 2-0 finish.
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© DTM Sports Trading Edge Ltd. Locke Street, Newport. NP20 5HL
Strategy #4 - The Desmond
Named after Arch Bishop Desmond Tutu this a correct score trade which uses the same match
selection criteria as the Aristotle to trade price movements on the score lines of 2-1, 1-2 and
2-2 (see
what we did there?)
Why it works
The Desmond is played by taking positions on the correct score lines of 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2
in a
game where we expect both teams to score. We enter the market only if the match is still 0-0
at 24
minutes. We’re hoping the match will finish on one of our target score lines but by managing
our
positions in-play as the goals go in we can create a green book on every correct score line.
Where’s theEDGE?
The edge here is from the match selection, the statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and by
taking
positions on correct score lines when the prices offer value.
How it’s played
Using a £25 stake we enter the market with the score at 0-0 24 minutes. With back positions
as
follows:
_ 36% Stake of £9 Backed on 1-1
_ 26% Stake of £6.50 Backed on 2-1
_ 26% Stake of £6.50 Backed on 1-2
_ 12% Stake of £3 Backed on 2-2
We are now green on all of those score lines with a maximum liability of £25 on any other
score. We
now sit back and wait for goals. As the goals go in the prices we backed at will fall allowing
us to lay
our position to remove our liability. At 1-1 we can remove all liability by laying 1-2, 2-1 and
2-2
leaving a healthy green on 1-1 and 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2. We can then further lay 1-1 to create
profit
across all scores.
Now whoever scores next we are in great position as either 2-1 or 1-2 will come in as well as
2-2. 1-1
will now be dead as with one either 2-1 or 1-2 but because we have already layed we are
already in
profit. With the score at either 2-1 or 1-2 we lay off the current score line and 2-2 to balance
our
book.
Where’s the downside
The downside is no goal or goals for just one side. Match selection will help to minimise this
but as
an additional insurance we can take cover with a back of under 2.5 and a little on 3-0 (0-3 is
very rare
but can be covered for few pennies.)

Strategy #5 - The 02
This is a very simple strategy which as a clearly defined entry point. The key to its success is
match
selection. What we are looking for is a situation in the first half of a match when the away
side has
taken two nil lead. Now this won’t happen in every match but over the course of a weekend
you’ll
usually find a handful of opportunities. The trade is played in the match odds market where
we’ll lay
the away side after the second goal at low odds around @ 1.20 to @1.35 depending on the
strength
of the opposition, then hedge out after the home team score.
Why it works?
With 45 minutes to go the manager of the away side has a dilemma. Do you set out your side
to
defend the two goal lead? Do you push on and try and close out the game by pushing for a
third?
How will the home team react? These questions often create uncertainty amongst the players
and
the result is often a goal to the home side.
Caution
Don’t use this trade blindly whenever you see a 0-2 first half score line. Whilst many teams
will panic
when they have a two goal advantage there are plenty of teams who are capable of managing
this
position and winning. Ideally you’re looking for a team that you wouldn’t expect to win
convincingly
on the road. As an example, in the premiership last season both Liverpool and Newcastle took
0-2
leads last season only to lose. The Manchester clubs didn’t.
Where’s theEDGE?
The tradingEDGE in the 02 comes from the low liability of the lay and the slow speed with
which the
match odds market will move against us for the next 10-15 minutes if no goal is scored. The
advantage we also have is that by getting involved at half-time we have 15 minutes to check
the
away stats of the teams playing if the matches are in leagues less familiar to us.
What’s the downside?
A third goal to the away side will move the price against us. No goal for the home side before
the
before the 65th minute will have moved the market approximately 10 ticks against us meaning
we’ll
have to hedge for a loss, though a goal before the 80th minute is likely to allow us to scratch
the
trade.
P a g e | 39
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© DTM Sports Trading Edge Ltd. Locke Street, Newport. NP20 5HL
Strategy #6 - The Jonah
More of a punt than trade the Jonah (named after a Sports Trading Edge member) is used to
lay a
market in football as the match enters injury time. The Jonah can be used a number of
markets,
match odds, correct score and unders though we strongly advice you ONLY use one at a time.
What we’re looking for is a match where there is only 1 goal separating two sides and ideally
with
the away side leading.
We are entering the market in the belief that there will be a late goal. We can lay the leading
team in
the match odds market but we need the trailing team to score to profit. This leads us to favour
a lay
of the correct score or unders markets as a goal to either side will allow us to profit. Whether
you lay
U1.5, U2.5, U3.5 or something else will be determined by the current score.
The Jonah works equally well in the HT correct score market or U1.5 first half goals market.
A HT
Jonah can be combined the HT Bounce for lower liability and potentially an instant payoff.
Why it works?
Statistically more goals are scored after the 40 th and 80th minutes respectively but particularly
the
latter when both sides can score points, hence the need for only a 1 goal margin in the
matches we
trade. The extra time period is often the most intense attacking period of a match and can last
up to
10 minutes with attack and counter attack often leading to a goal.
Where’s theEDGE?
The tradingEDGE with the Jonah comes from the low liability entry point which will often
see the
price as low as @1.20. Entering a market @1.20 for £25 stake carries a liability of £5,
meaning that
to profit from the Jonah we only need to be right in calling a late goal in 25% of the matches
we
trade. 20% or 1 in 5 will still come out as scratch.
A variation of the Jonah can be played with the drip mining technique with mines @1.8,
@1.5 and
@1.2. This will mean you have a wider window for a goal but for greater liability/lower
profit.
What’s the downside?
Very little, though obviously no goal will mean we lose. There is little time (or point) in
trading out
with seconds to go so we need to be prepared to accept a 20 tick loss before we enter the
market.
A variation of the Jonah can be played with the drip mining technique with mines @1.8,
@1.5 and
@1.2. This will mean you have a wider window for a goal but for greater liability/lower
profit.
P a g e | 40
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© DTM Sports Trading Edge Ltd. Locke Street, Newport. NP20 5HL
Strategy #7 - The Correct Score Cash Machine
This trade requires a degree of being in the right place at the same time but it gives the closest
thing
to a guaranteed profit outside of arbitrage and matched betting. It works on the principle of
market
uncertainty and over/under reaction.
The trade is played during a football match immediately after a goal is scored. On Betfair, the
market
will suspend after the goal and will stay suspended for 30 seconds to maybe a minute
afterwards.
During this time no bets can be submitted, so we have a little time to get organised. We are
going to
take positions on the new current score market, so if it was 0-0 and now it’s 1-0 we’re going
to trade
on the 1-0 market.
Firstly we need to check the last traded price on the (LTP) on the previous score line (0-0).
We’ll then
take positions 5-20 ticks either side of the (LTP) on the new current score (1-0). When the
market re
opens the 1-0 market will be clear of all bets so we can do some market making. We’ll place
our bets
both back and lay above and below the LTP of the 0-0 market. If we are matched on our back
position first we now have a value bet which we can hedge 5, 10, 15, or 20 ticks lower for a
profit. If
our lay is matched first then we reverse the process.
Why it works?
When the market resets after a goal there is a short period where traders are unsure what the
correct price should be for the new score line. Unlike bookies who use software to set their
price
Betfair is (largely) set by the users. This creates an opportunity to offer prices that offer value
to you
and get them matched by people rushing to get into the market who are prepared to take
whatever
price they can get matched at.
Where’s theEDGE?
You determine your edge with this trade. By using your knowledge of the true price from the
LTP on
the previous score line you create a value position by getting matched with a lay below the
true
price or a back bet above it (or both). Once matched you’ll automatically be in profit and can
hedge
out.
What’s the downside?
Not getting matched. If you are too greedy with your market position you may see a back bet
sitting
on the exchange as the prices below you are matched and your opportunity passes. There is
usually
still value in backing at LTP or a few ticks lower and you’ll have a better chance of getting
matched.
On the lay side the risk is getting matched too high and being stuck with a losing lay position.
This can be countered by laying at LTP -20 ticks then if a higher lay offer is placed above
you, you can
move your lay above it so you are first in the queue to be matched. With this trade a return of
10-15
ticks is excellent; 8-10 is about average and 5 about the lowest you should expect.
Caution
Careful with you staking as unless it’s a big game you’ll struggle to get more than £25
matched.
P a g e | 41
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Strategy #8 - The Halftime Bounce
This is a useful little in-play trade that allows you to add some extra green while playing
another
football strategy. It can be used in conjunction with a halftime Jonah to cover any downside if
the
Jonah doesn’t come off, a great way of getting a free trade.
Why it works
The halftime bounce, in certain matches is a reasonably predictable price movement which
played
just before halftime allows us to profit from a lay with very little downside. It is played by
laying the
current score in the correct score market a minute or two before the conclusion of the first
half.
If it is played in match where goals (or more goals) are expected then traders expecting a
quick
second half goal will be reluctant to back the current score line at half time. This means that
the
correct score price can actually rise 4-5 ticks in the first 10 minutes of the halftime break. We
can
then hedge out for profit before the second half of the match. Alternatively we can match our
lay
stake with our back to leave free money on the current score.
Where’s theEDGE?
The edge comes from understanding that when goals are likely the price will reverse its
current
trend for a short period during halftime. By laying the correct score in the dying moments of
the
first half we will make a 100% profit if a goal is scored (great when that happens) if not then
we’d at
least expect 2-3 ticks profit.
Where the downside?
Very little downside here as the only the thing that can hurt us is the continuation of the trend
for
the price to fall. This will only happen if we have read the match wrong and the market does
not
expect further goals. If this does happen we hedge out to stop any further loss and then scalp
the
current score for a few minutes in the second half to recover our position.