Flightint January2021 287619

FlightGlobal.
com January 2021
Forecasts
What the next

year could
bring
Return of
the Max
How Udvar-Hazy
sees recovery p32
Why Italian firms

Can troubled twinjet regain momentum? p6 are soaring p64
9
£4.99
770015 371327
Healthy appetite Splashing out

£4.99
Embraer bosses Paris embarks
still hungry for on future carrier
sales success design study
0 1
p16 p26
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Comment
Better days?
The pandemic had a devastating impact in the year just gone,
and 2021 might not have too much cheer held in store either
Santi Rodriguez/Shutterstock
Long-haul slog
A
ttempting to predict the coronavirus. Earlier optimistic fore- But, while many of us have not
future is a fool’s game, as casts of air travel returning to per- set foot inside an airliner since
the emergence of a global haps 75% of pre-pandemic levels the coronavirus changed our lives,
pandemic with staggering by mid-year now feel like fantasy, the crucial role of aviation dur-
health, social and economic con- as many wary travellers are likely ing the crisis has been clear for
sequences illustrated during what to be considering the health ben- all to see. From repatriating sick
was a truly dreadful 2020. efits of planning a second summer and stranded passengers to flying
Scroll back exactly one year, and “staycation” in succession. vitally needed supplies of personal
our main Comment article – de- Covid-19 aside, the coming year protective equipment boxed and
voted to Boeing’s woes with the is already full of uncertainty. Can stacked on passenger seats under
then-grounded 737 Max – used the a returning 737 Max earn the con- cargo nets, and keeping global
headline ‘Annus terribilis’. Little did fidence of regulators around the trade flowing, aircraft have been
we know what was to come… globe, and – just as importantly – and remain vital assets.
Indeed, an accompanying article of the travelling public? Will a sim- And, if one small positive can be
named ‘What a year’ noted falling mering trade war between China taken from 2020’s turmoil, it is that
commercial orders, and offered and the USA erupt and restrict the airlines and manufacturers alike –
this sage wisdom: “Look back to sale of Western jets to Beijing’s car- partly thanks to the insistence of
the Great Financial Crisis of 2008- riers? And what chaos might await governments – have finally taken
2009; in geo-economic terms it regarding the UK’s trade relations seriously the environmental agenda
does not get worse than that.” with the EU, and Brexit’s implica- and are actively pursuing new pro-
The reality of the coronavirus tions for the nation’s airlines? pulsion systems. We can expect hy-
spread saw airlines around the Add to this list the as-yet un- brid-electric designs to make rapid
world ground entire fleets, and known policy decisions of a new progress over the next few years,
some carriers shutter their op- US administration under Presi- while the industry pursues more
erations permanently. Long-haul dent-elect Joe Biden, and what ac- promising zero-emissions technol-
business disappeared almost en- tions might be taken during Don- ogies such as hydrogen fuel for a
tirely, leading to Airbus A380s and ald Trump’s last days in office, and next generation of products – as
Boeing 747-400s heading for long- 2021 already feels fraught with risk. notably backed by Airbus in 2020.
term storage or the breakers’ yard. Should this pessimism prove In all likelihood, we should be
We enter 2021 with recent ill-founded, there also is a very real prepared for things to get worse
optimism about the availability of chance that more airlines in Europe before a recovery comes. So,
newly approved vaccines and their and further afield could go bust charge your glasses – whether they
promise of a return to some sort in a post-pandemic age, once the be half-full or half-empty – and let’s
of “normal” threatened by a new state aid that they currently rely on go again, into the unknown. ◗
and more transmissible strain of is withdrawn. See p48
January 2021 Flight International 3

In focus
Gol flies Max first 6 Ace flying high 20 Bern closes in on fighter
PIA ATR 42 crash report 8 Bell’s electric tail rotor 22 selection 30
Airbus touts hydrogen pods 10 J-20: decade in the shadows 24 Udvar-Hazy eyes rebound 32
eCaravan’s low-power landing 12 France launches carrier study 26 Blaze involved Li-ion cells 36
BEHA supplier selection 13 USAF trials network 27 Obituary: Chuck Yeager 38
Embraer’s force Meijer 16 Lilium puts down roots 28 Looking past the pandemic 40
12 00
FlightGlobal.com January 2021
Forecasts
What the next

year could
bring
Andre Penner/AP/Shutterstock
Return of
the Max
How Udvar-Hazy
sees recovery p32
Why Italian firms

Can troubled twinjet regain momentum? p6 are soaring p64
9
£4.99
770015 371327
Healthy appetite Splashing out

£4.99
Embraer bosses Paris embarks
still hungry for on future carrier
sales success design study
0 1
p16 p26
Regulars Comment 3 Straight & Level 74 Letters 76 Jobs 81 Women in aviation 82
4 Flight International January 2021

Contents
In depth
Back on course 46 Team player 54 Blackshaping the future 72
Uplifted by the real prospect Electronic warfare specialist Italian aircraft developer has
of a Covid-19 vaccine becoming Elettronica detects opportunity set itself a ‘challenging target’
widely available over the next for output of its flagship
few months, our team turns Rocketing ambitions 68 programme in 2021, with high
its sights on what 2021 might Italy is determined to maintain hopes for sales in the ISR and
hold in store a central role in emerging fields US recreational markets
45
64
18 48
Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com
Gol flies first as Ryanair backs Max

Boeing’s troubled 737 is operating again and has scored an
important sales win – but it still has challenges to overcome
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa ity for its role in designing the to the Max and related pilot training
flight-control software that, in fail- updates. Although Transport Cana-
ing, effectively triggered the inci- da has not yet cleared the jet to fly,
B
razilian airline Gol beat dents that doomed 737 Max 8s op- that seems likely in January, when
everyone to the punch erated by Indonesia’s Lion Air and the agency says it will issue the re-
when it resumed flights Ethiopian Airlines. quired airworthiness directive.
with the Boeing 737 Max on The airframer and the FAA insist That order will include Cana-
9 December from Sao Paulo, one that all the Max’s safety concerns da-specific requirements. The agen-
week after the country lifted the have been addressed; the Max has cy says it will require that pilots be
type’s grounding, and weeks ahead been made at least as safe as any able to disable the jet’s stick-shaker
of much larger US carriers. commercial aircraft in the skies, when erroneously activated by an
Gol was expecting its entire com- they argue. angle-of-attack sensor.
plement of seven Max to be cleared US carriers are lining up to get “This feature will help to reduce
to fly by year-end. Its Max re-intro- the Max airborne, with American pilot workload, given what has
duction was followed by Aeromex- Airlines leading the charge. Amer- been learned from the two tragic
ico on 21 December, which operat- ican plans to resume Max opera- accidents, and has been fully eval-
ed a domestic service from Mexico tions on 29 December with a flight uated by Transport Canada’s flight-
City to Cancun. from Miami to New York LaGuardia. test pilots,” the agency says. “There
Gol’s move came after Brazil will also be differences in training,
rescinded the type’s grounding on Passenger concerns including training on the enhanced
25 November, several days after Next up in the USA is United Air- flight-deck procedure.”
the US Federal Aviation Adminis- lines, which intends to operate its Meanwhile, the European Union
tration (FAA) lifted its prohibition, first post-grounding Max flights Aviation Safety Agency has indi-
on 18 November. from Houston and Denver on cated it will lift the Max’s ground-
The restart of revenue services 11 February. But in a sop to those ing in mid-January.
with the narrowbody seems to passengers still wary of the Boe- But one wildcard remains: China.
mark a major turning point for both ing narrowbody, United will also Analysts have little clarity on
Boeing and the world’s 737 Max deploy other aircraft types on the when that country, home to many
operators. Finally, the jet is back in initial routes for the Max, enabling 737 Max customers, might clear the
the skies, flying passengers again customers to be shifted as required. jet. And they see the process as
after being grounded in March 2019 Southwest Airlines, meanwhile, entangled with the US-China trade
following two crashes that killed a says it intends to begin flights with war and Beijing’s interest in pro-
combined 346 people. the re-engined twinjet in March. moting its homegrown competitor,
Those events opened a chapter in But given the concerns about the in-development Comac C919.
Boeing’s history that it would likely the FAA’s certification processes Chinese approval is critical for
prefer to forget, but from which it that the Max episode has generat- Boeing, as the nation’s carriers
pledges to learn: a seemingly end- ed in regulators across the globe, it potentially account for some 30%
less stream of bad news, allegations comes as little surprise that other of future Max deliveries, Air Lease
of corporate malfeasance and of jurisdictions are taking longer to executive chairman Steven Ud-
browbeating the FAA, and public re-approve the aircraft. var-Hazy has said.
chastising before the US Congress. Canada on 18 December said it On 8 December, Boeing also
Boeing has taken responsibil- had “validated” Boeing’s changes kicked off the long process of

Cover story 737 Max
Pilots ‘coached’ to fit assumptions on MCAS reaction time

David Kaminski-Morrow London Based on corroborated
whistleblower information
and interview testimony, the
US Senate committee committee adds, Boeing and
investigators believe Boeing FAA officials who were involved
and the US Federal Aviation in the conduct of this test
Administration (FAA) tried “established a predetermined
to reaffirm controversial outcome to reaffirm a long-
assumptions over pilot held human factor assumption”
response times during 737 relating to pilot reaction time to
Max recertification, by pre- stabiliser runaway.
Andre Penner/AP/Shutterstock
determining the outcome of The whistleblower claims the

tests on crew reactions to Aircraft Evaluation Group pilot
a runaway stabiliser. – who participated only after
The Senate committee a second Aircraft Certification
on commerce, science and Office pilot became unavailable –
transportation has found took 16s to react to the runaway
that Boeing “inappropriately stabiliser, some four times longer
coached” test pilots while than the 4s assumption.
First revenue flight after recertification
conducting simulator tests Such was their concern that
was on 9 December from Sao Paulo
during recertification of the the whistleblower, in July 2019,
Max, after two fatal accidents carried out and shared the
involving the type. results of an ad hoc experiment
delivering the roughly 450 737 Both accidents were linked to to “spot-check” some volunteer
Max that it has manufactured, then the Manouevering Characteristics Southwest Airlines 737 crews.
stockpiled, amid the grounding. The Augmentation System (MCAS) This experiment was intended
first example went to United. software, which erroneously to explore any “potential
The delivery process faces com- trimmed the horizontal stabiliser discrepancy” between these
plications because of the pandem- to push the aircraft into a nose- pilots’ responses to a runaway
ic, which has left many carriers un- down attitude. Investigators stabiliser, through the commonly
willing or unable to take the new probing one of the accidents, used quick-reference card
jets. But Boeing needs to get those involving a Lion Air 737 Max, system, and the memory-item
aircraft out the door as the com- said Boeing had incorrectly approach applied by Boeing.
pany badly needs the cash that predicted the manner in which While the whistleblower
comes from delivery. pilots would react to a series of acknowledges that the
false MCAS activations. experiment – conducted with
Programme victory The Senate committee’s newly three crews and a 737NG
Despite those difficulties, Boeing published report states that simulator – was not statistically
scored a victory for the programme Boeing assumes a 4s reaction adequate, the results pointed to
just days after the FAA lifted the time for a pilot to identify and a lagged response time, between
Max grounding. begin correcting a runaway 7s and 11s, in recognising the
On 3 December, Irish discount stabiliser, through memory. stabiliser runaway. Executing the
carrier Ryanair ordered 75 addi- But the committee adds that, quick-reference card procedure
tional 737 Max, adding to the 135 according to a whistleblower took 49-62s.
it already had already committed serving as an FAA aviation safety “One reason line crews do not
to. That was followed on 22 De- inspector, this “long-assumed” respond as Boeing expects is
cember by Alaska Airlines, which reaction time is “not realistic”. that they are used to the trim
ordered an additional 23 737-9s, The whistleblower alleged that wheel moving by [the speed-
taking to 120 the carrier’s orders Boeing officials were present trim system],” the whistleblower
and options for the Max. during 737 Max runaway stabiliser stated in an August 2019
"We believe in this airplane, we reaction tests conducted in 2019 communication detailing the
believe in our strong partnership with an FAA Aircraft Certification results of the experiment to the
with Boeing, and we believe in Office test pilot and an Aircraft Aircraft Evaluation Group.
the future of Alaska Airlines,” says Evaluation Group test pilot. The Senate committee report
group chief executive Brad Tilden, Boeing officials are alleged, covers a wide range of issues
eyeing the post-pandemic market. says the committee, to have relating to oversight, beyond
What became apparent with “encouraged” the test pilots those affecting the 737 Max.
both orders, though, is that Boeing to remember to activate the The FAA is reviewing the
has no intention of dropping the stabiliser trim control switches document. Boeing has offered a
Max name, despite some carriers straight away, enabling them to non-combative response to the
removing that designation from counter actions from MCAS. This Senate findings, simply stating
their own communications. amounted to coaching of the test that it takes the conclusions
“There is no rebranding going pilots, the committee concludes, “seriously” and will “continue to
on,” stresses the airframer’s chief “contrary to testing protocol”. review the report in full”.
executive David Calhoun. ◗

Crashed PIA ATR 42 stalled and

inverted after powerplant failure
Fractured turbine blade led to loss of power, high drag levels
and rapid descent, leaving crew unable to control aircraft
David Kaminski-Morrow London The inquiry says a series of tech- the crew’s efforts to maintain di-
nical malfunctions then occurred rectional control suddenly became
to the engine and its propeller “surplus to the requirement” – re-
I
nvestigators have determined that control system. sulting in a sharp yaw to the right,
the complex failure of a Pakistan Fracture of the turbine blade the inverting roll and rapid descent,
International Airlines (PIA) ATR unbalanced the power turbine, and the aircraft losing 5,100ft before re-
42-500’s left-hand engine preced- the situation was complicated by covering at 8,350ft.
ed a loss of control that developed another latent problem, a broken
into a stall, loss of altitude, and pin in the engine’s overspeed gov- Psychological impact
eventual fatal collision with terrain. ernor, as well as oil contamination. “This had immense psychological
At one point in the accident The resulting technical malfunc- impact on the cockpit crew, and it
sequence the aircraft inverted as tion generated an increase in pro- impaired their capacity to perform
it underwent a full 360° roll to the peller pitch and an unusual decline normally,” says the inquiry.
right, continuing to roll another in propeller speed – from the cruise After the recovery, complex sim-
90° before banking left until it was level of 82% it fell to 62%. ulations indicate the aircraft’s pro-
wings-level – losing some 5,100ft in “Due to this combined technical peller blades might have settled at
height overall. anomaly, during following parts a low pitch while rotating at about
The ATR (AP-BHO) had been op- of the flight, the conditions were 5%, generating stable drag forces
erating from Chitral to Islamabad exceptionally difficult,” says the in- on the left side.
on 7 December 2016, its sixth flight quiry, pointing out that the aircraft But the aircraft’s behaviour dif-
of the day, with 42 passengers and suffered “uncontrolled variation” in fered from what would be expect-
a crew of five. its propeller speed and blade pitch. ed during a standard in-flight shut-
Pakistan’s aircraft accident in- down and single-engined operation,
vestigation board says the aircraft with propeller drag some seven
93h
probably took off with a fractured times more than it would normal-
stage-one power turbine blade in ly produce once feathered. “In this
its left-hand Pratt & Whitney Can- degraded condition it was not pos-
ada PW127E powerplant. sible for the aircraft to maintain a
Investigators believe the blade Flight time in excess of 10,000h limit level flight,” says the inquiry. It could
“probably” fractured or dislodged for failed stage one turbine blade only fly in a gradual descent of 800-
during the previous flight, from Pe- 1,000ft/min at around 150-160kt.
shawar to Chitral. Directional control was possible
The engine had been installed Propeller speed increased to with “substantial” right rudder and
three weeks earlier, having been tak- 102%, before falling, while the blade right aileron inputs, it adds, but the
en from another of PIA’s ATRs (AP- pitch reached a point possibly pilots were “unable to judge” the
BHP) during unscheduled mainte- close to the feather position. The nature and extent of degradation in
nance. During this work the power propeller speed unexpectedly in- the aircraft’s aerodynamic perfor-
turbine assembly was removed. creased again, corresponding to an mance. When the crew attempted
unfeathering, reaching 120-125%. to reduce the rate of descent, the
Replacement criteria The left side of the aircraft airspeed also began to fall.
But while the turbine blades had produced “high drag values”, says Despite progressively-increasing
passed the 10,000h criteria for the inquiry, while the crew had not control inputs to the right, the air-
replacement, the inquiry says they responded with sufficient power, craft entered a continuous left turn,
“were not replaced”. The engine resulting in falling airspeed and the approaching high terrain and trig-
operated for a further 93h before aircraft flying on the verge of stall- gering ground-proximity warnings.
the onset of the emergency. ing, its stick-shaker activating. The airspeed declined and the air-
Over the initial 26min of the Advancement of power on the craft stalled at 4,280ft – just 850ft
flight to Islamabad – with the ATR right-hand engine, it says, coupled above ground – rolling 90° to the
cruising at 13,500ft – there was evi- with “excessive” right rudder to left and pitching 23° nose-down
dence that the left-hand propeller’s counter the asymmetric condition, before striking a mountain base
speed-governing accuracy had de- coincided with an “abrupt” fall in 42min into its flight.
graded, but this was not noticed by the left-hand propeller speed. None of the occupants survived
the crew. The aircraft was cruising “A considerable amount of drag the impact, 24nm (45km) north
at 186kt (344km/h) instead of the was eliminated from the left side of of Islamabad airport and 3.5nm
expected 230kt. the aircraft,” says the inquiry, and south-southeast of Havelian. ◗

Safety Investigation
Sultan Dogar/EPA/Shutterstock
Turboprop crashed 42min into flight,
killing all 47 passengers and crew
Investigation highlights ‘significantly lower’ engine reliability on flag carrier’s ATR fleet
Engine reliability on the ATR P&WC carried out a survey Investigators made interim
fleet of Pakistan International of PIA’s engine maintenance safety recommendations to the
Airlines (PIA) was “significantly facility in April 2017, four months authority in January last year,
lower” than the global average, after the accident, detecting stating that the root cause of
investigators have revealed. a number of anomalies and maintenance lapses needed
Pakistan’s aircraft accident procedural deviations that were to be identified and corrective
investigation board says engine not recorded during Pakistan measures implemented to avoid
manufacturer Pratt & Whitney civil aviation authority audits. a recurrence, and that the civil
Canada provided data to the The inquiry says the oversight aviation authority needed to
inquiry comparing the reliability mechanisms of PIA and the civil evaluate and strengthen its
of PIA’s PW127s with that of the aviation authority were found to oversight mechanisms.
worldwide ATR fleet. be “inadequate” at identifying Separately, a civil aviation
The analysis looked at rates and monitoring performance authority probe has concluded
of in-flight shutdown, inability indicators. “Furthermore, the that the licences of two of the
to modulate power, aborted mechanism for a proactive ATR’s crew were valid, after
take-offs and other occurrences. intervention upon such findings suspicions had been raised over
“PIA fleet engine reliability was was ineffective,” it adds. their qualifications.
found to be significantly lower Investigators found that, Pakistan’s civil aviation
than that of other fleets around three weeks before the crash, the authority initiated an examination
the world,” says the inquiry. ATR had undergone an engine of pilot licensing records in 2019,
“This remains true even when change, with the installation of finding evidence of irregularities
comparing with operators in a powerplant taken from a sister in the conduct of ground
similar operating environments.” aircraft in the PIA fleet. examinations.
The manufacturer had been This engine had power turbine Three pilots – a captain and
working with the carrier to blades which had reached time two first officers – were in the
identify the reasons for this limits requiring them to be cockpit of the PIA ATR at the
unreliability, relaying findings changed, but this was not carried time of the crash.
such as oil filter maintenance out at the time of the swap. The inquiry says the names of
practices and corrective repair “Missing out of such an activity the captain and the first officer
shop actions to the carrier. highlights a lapse on the part of seated in the jump seat appeared
Investigators found that a [the airline’s maintenance and on the initial list of pilots whose
number of latent technical issues quality-assurance] as well as a licences were considered
had been present in the ill-fated possible inadequacy [or] lack of suspicious. However, further
ATR 42-500’s left-hand engine oversight by [the civil aviation investigation saw them removed
before the failure. authority],” the inquiry states. from this list.

Innovation Concepts
Airbus touts hydrogen EcoPulse passes PDR stage
power in pod format Dominic Perry London
Daher has been cleared to

Airframer unveils configuration with begin assembling in late 2021
the hybrid-electric EcoPulse
multiple self-contained propulsion demonstrator it is developing
with Airbus and Safran, after the
systems under ZEROe programme aircraft passed its preliminary
design review (PDR).
Airbus
First flight of the EcoPulse is

scheduled for 2022. It features
David Kaminski-Morrow London “These pods are not designed to six Safran-supplied 50kW
be driven by any ordinary propul- electric motors on the wing, plus
sion system,” the company says. a conventional turboprop engine
A
irbus is preparing a pat- “Hydrogen fuel cells are among the in the nose, which doubles as
ent application for a dis- key components.” a turbogenerator.
tributed pod-based con- The nature of hydrogen fuel Unveiled at the 2019 Paris air
figuration for a hydrogen cells requires a “unique approach”, show, the programme is backed
fuel-cell powerplant, which it is says ZEROe aircraft lead archi- by France’s CORAC civil aviation
exploring as a possibility to over- tect Matthieu Thomas, with Airbus research council; state support
come the problems of scaling up publishing a patent application for was underlined in the French
the technology for use with large the configuration. “The pod con- government’s aviation rescue
transport aircraft. figuration is essentially a distribut- plan in June 2020.
While smaller propeller-driven ed fuel cell propulsion system that Under that initiative, Paris is
aircraft, up to about 20 seats, delivers thrust to the aircraft via keen to promote projects that
can take advantage of standard six propulsors arranged along the will enable commercial aviation
twin-engined arrangements when wing,” Thomas says. to cut greenhouse gas emissions
testing hydrogen-based power, in future. EcoPulse, the partners
larger designs with longer range Final decision argue, lays out “the framework
“require another solution”, says The distributed architecture of the for light aircraft by the end of
the airframer. pod configuration, Airbus argues, the decade”.
It is looking into – among other potentially simplifies such issues as EcoPulse is based on a Daher
options – a pod-based power- fuelling and maintenance. TBM airframe. The conclusion
plant design that effectively uses But vice-president of zero-emis- of the PDR has enabled the
self-contained propulsion systems sion aircraft Glenn Llewellyn points demonstrator’s baseline
which would be individually mount- out that the design, while a “great configuration to be frozen.
ed on the wing. starting point to nurture further In addition, it confirmed “the
Each pod acts as a standalone inquiry”, is not a final selection. Air- hybrid distributed propulsion
engine, featuring a liquid-hydrogen bus is looking to narrow its options system’s level of safety and
tank, fuel cells, electric motors and over the next five years and reach a compatibility with the aircraft”.
propellers, plus other electronic decision around 2025. “This is one Safran has validated the
and cooling systems. option, but many more will be con- electric thruster configuration,
Airbus has unveiled a potential ceptualised,” says Llewellyn. along with installation interfaces,
configuration using six of these Airbus says it expects to submit the power management system
pods, each with an eight-blad- “several” more patents as part of and high-voltage wiring. Airbus
ed composite propeller – one of its ZEROe research. “Although ad- will carry out windtunnel and
several designs that the airframer vanced in its design, the pod con- endurance tests on a complete
is currently examining under its figuration still requires a lot of work thruster – the motor, propeller
ZEROe advanced zero-emissions to determine whether it could be and nacelle – in early 2021.
aircraft programme. a suitable solution,” it adds. ◗

Propulsion Technology
Fault caused a ‘graceful degradation’

Magnix
in performance during 30min flight
eCaravan landed with lower power

Magnix admits that electric Cessna had inverter issue on test
flight which cut output of battery-powered engine to 75%
Pilar Wolfsteller Las Vegas power. That is only “partially” true, On 22 November, the company
Ganzarski says. flew the modified aircraft, which
“When they had a fault coming it calls the Electric EEL, on a round
E
lectric propulsion special- out of the electrical system into trip from Kahului to Hana, both
ist Magnix has confirmed one of those inverters, that in- on Maui – a 20min flight of about
that an electric-powered verter shut down in order not to 24nm (45km). The Electric EEL
Cessna 208B Grand Cara- impact the rest, and did what we completed the round trip on a sin-
van it was demonstrating landed call a graceful degradation, leav- gle battery charge, Ampaire says.
under degraded power after an is- ing the pilot with partial power,” he Ampaire says the Kahului-Hana
sue with an inverter during a 2020 says. “So, it only shut down a quar- flight makes it the first compa-
test flight. ter; if you have a fault with an en- ny “to complete a demonstration
“We had an electrical issue where gine, you’d have to shut the whole flight of a hybrid-electric aircraft
one of the four inverters did what it thing down.” along an actual airline route”.
was supposed to do – it shut down, An inverter controls the frequen- Ampaire is performing demon-
leaving the pilot [with] only 75% cy of power supplied to a motor to stration flights in Hawaii via a part-
power,” Magnix chief executive control its rotation speed. nership with local intra-island carri-
Roei Ganzarski tells FlightGlobal. er Mokulele Airlines.
“It wasn’t that the battery died.” Economical operation Kevin Noertker, Ampaire chief ex-
Magnix and flight-testing com- Magnix, with offices in Australia ecutive, says the flights will demon-
pany AeroTec partnered to fly and Seattle, has been working on strate the “robustness of Ampaire’s
a Caravan equipped with Mag- the Grand Caravan project along- technology” and aid development
nix’s 750hp (559kW) Magni500 side other electric-aircraft efforts. of future projects.
all-electric powerplant. It is one of two companies sup- Cessna 337s have two piston en-
The aircraft, dubbed an “eCar- plying propulsion systems for gines – one driving a forward-fac-
avan”, made its maiden flight on Alice, an all-electric nine-passen- ing prop, the other driving a push-
28 May from Grant County Inter- ger aircraft being developed by er prop. For the EEL, Ampaire
national airport in Moses Lake, sister company Eviation Aircraft. replaced the six-seat aircraft’s for-
Washington. It flew for about Magnix and AeroTec say their ward engine with an electric sys-
30min before landing safely, modified Grand Caravan proves tem “capable” of producing 160kW,
according to the company. that small all-electric aircraft can it says. The 300hp rear engine re-
Ganzarski says the electric sys- feasibly and economically operate mains in place.
tem “did exactly what it was sup- short routes that airlines had long Mokulele has signed a “letter of
posed to do” during the test flight. ago abandoned. interest” to acquire aircraft from
The system lost only partial power Meanwhile, rival electric aircraft Ampaire, and the EEL project has
and the programme has benefited developer Ampaire has flown its support from Mokulele parent
from the lessons learned, he adds. hybrid-electric powered Cessna Southern Airways. ◗
He was responding to a question 337 Skymaster on what it calls an
about whether the aircraft’s pilot “actual airline route”, between two Additional reporting by
had been forced to land without of Hawaii’s islands. Jon Hemmerdinger in Tampa

Development
F20 page head right
Programme
Supplier selection powers up BEHA

Honeywell, Magnix, Cambridge Consultants and Nova to work
on hybrid-electric effort as Faradair seeks £1 billion in funding
Dominic Perry London “Our focus has been to secure for its customers in the same way
the main partners for the pro- that SpaceX provides its hardware
gramme, then we can fine-tune and services. “We are creating
U
K start-up Faradair Aero- the aircraft around these key com- an asset to support our business
space will shortly begin a ponents,” he says. model,” he says.
two-year engineering effort Cloughley says that negotiations However, a small number may be
as it works to integrate a are ongoing with potential fuse- dry-leased to selected operators.
newly selected propulsion system lage suppliers, a decision on which He estimates that it will cost
into the first prototype of its BEHA will be aided by the forthcoming around £1 billion to get the BEHA
hybrid-electric aircraft. appointment of a head of engi- through the development and cer-
In addition, the Duxford air- neering design authority. tification phases, and to produce
field-based company is continuing Detailed structural engineering the first 60 aircraft. Despite the
its efforts to secure the estimated work will begin now, with assembly seemingly intimidating size of that
£1 billion ($1.3 billion) required to of the first prototype scheduled to figure, Cloughley insists it is “not
bring the BEHA – or Bio Electric start in 2023, ahead of a planned a huge amount of money” for the
Hybrid Aircraft – into production. first flight in 2024. aircraft finance market.
On 17 December Faradair an- He says Faradair is attracting
nounced it had selected Honeywell Proof-of-concept strong interest from that communi-
to supply the BEHA’s turbogen- Faradair intends to deliver an ty, not least because of the current
erator, avionics and flight-control “initial portfolio” of 300 BEHAs in poor returns available from com-
systems, while Magnix is to provide the 2026-2030 period at a rate of mercial aviation.
Magni500 electric motors – two for 60 aircraft per year “in the largest Cloughley, who has a finance
each aircraft – plus control systems. proof-of-concept air mobility pro- and leasing background, argues
In addition, Cambridge Consult- gramme ever created”. that because the manufacturer
ants has been recruited to provide It intends to equip 150 of the air- will spread the aircraft across four
engineering and powertrain inte- craft in a firefighting configuration, sectors, it will be able to generate
gration services, and Nova Systems with both sensors and the capabil- a steady double-digit return on in-
is to assist Faradair with the devel- ity for aerial delivery of water or vestment across a 10-year period,
opment of the prototype, in line suppressant; 75 examples will be in despite any industry cyclicality.
with certification standards. a quick-change passenger-to-car- However, Faradair has still to
Speaking to FlightGlobal, Fara- go configuration; 50 will be ded- attract any investment from the
dair founder and chief executive icated freighters; and 25 will be UK government, despite its Cam-
Neil Cloughley says the supplier se- demonstrators for governmental bridgeshire headquarters and a
lection is the culmination of three missions such as border and fisher- promise to create 1,500 highly
months of work since the compa- ies patrol, or drug interdiction. skilled jobs at Duxford if the site is
ny gained new impetus from its Cloughley does not intend to sell confirmed as the location for the
September move to the Duxford the aircraft, however: they will be BEHA’s final assembly line.
AvTech centre in Cambridgeshire. owned and operated by Faradair While the initial batch of aircraft
will have hybrid-electric propul-
sion, Cloughley says the design will
allow conversion to a zero-emis-
sion architecture – batteries or fuel
cells – when technology has ma-
tured sufficiently. This is likely to
be in the early 2030s, he believes.
The BEHA’s striking triple box
wing configuration, composite
construction and tail-mounted
pusher propfan, plus electric mo-
tors on the wheels, are designed to
enable short runway performance.
This will allow the aircraft to access
thousands of under-utilised facili-
Faradair
ties and create “affordable regional

transport”, says Cloughley. It will
be able to accommodate 18 pas-
First prototype will be built in 2023, with
sengers or 5t of cargo, including
maiden flight planned the following year
three LD3 containers. ◗

One Name,
Many Skies
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Helicopters | Aeronautics | Electronics, Defence & Security Systems | Space

Embraer’s force Meijer

Despite challenges posed by collapsing air transport market
– and fallout from failed merger with Boeing – the head of
Brazilian airframer’s commercial arm is staying positive
Dominic Perry London If there is a positive aspect to any get out of the crisis.” Its recent 10-
of this, however, it is that there have year forecast suggests a require-
been no cancellations. Some cus- ment for 5,500 aircraft in the sub-
I
f there were an optimum time to tomers have deferred deliveries into 150-seat segment by 2029.
take over as chief executive of 2021 and 2022, says Meijer, but none A return of customer confidence
a business it would probably be has taken the more drastic step. is key, and assuming that comes
when sales were at their most “I believe airlines are committed back “then airlines will rebuild their
buoyant, the outlook was robust to these aircraft because they need networks and will re-engage in
and the wider industrial landscape them for their networks. That has fleet discussions,” he says. Carriers
was settled. It would certainly not not changed – the long-term need looking to downgauge will also be
be during the deepest crisis your is still there,” he says. a driver of the renewed sales activ-
industry has ever known and hot In fact, Meijer, the unit’s for- ity, he says.
on the heels of a collapsed merg- mer chief operating officer, seems But since their launch in 2013,
er that promised to inject new strangely confident, in contrast to customers have been slow to
momentum into the business. the depressed outlook found else- embrace the E2-series jets. Or
But that scenario is precisely where in the industry. But it is a be- rather, while there was an ini-
what Arjan Meijer faced when he lief in both Embraer’s products and tial flurry of orders, cancellations
became chief executive of Em- the market conditions for them that have steadily eaten into the total:
braer Commercial Aviation in June. appear to be buoying his mood. Embraer has taken firm orders for
Coronavirus travel restrictions and 173 aircraft, while the undelivered
plunging demand had forced air- Swift recovery backlog is 151.
lines into a battle for survival, with Meijer’s contention is this: while Although the majority of can-
knock-on consequences for their IATA forecasts suggest that the cellations were from one carrier
aircraft suppliers. international aviation market as a for the smallest family member
And if that was not bad enough, whole will not return to 2019 levels – SkyWest Airlines axed an order
at that point Embraer was still until 2024 or 2025, the sub-150- for 100 E175-E2s due to issues re-
working out how to piece itself seat segment in which Embraer lated to scope-clause relief in the
back together, having carved out operates will recover much more US regional market – Embraer has
the commercial aviation business quickly. And as operators try to struggled to bring in what former
in anticipation of the sale of an cope with lower passenger num- commercial aviation chief John
80% stake to Boeing. When that bers on short-haul routes, they Slattery used to refer to as a “mar-
deal collapsed in April, the Brazilian will have little option but to turn quee customer”.
airframer had to undo all the com- to smaller aircraft that offer the While Azul and KLM have signed
plex work it had performed over efficiency promised by the latest up, the remainder of the airfram-
the previous two years – at not in- generation of the company’s E-Jet er’s backlog for the E2 family
significant cost – at a point where it range, the E2. comprises either lessors or small-
could ill-afford any missteps. “In commercial aviation we are er, regional carriers.
“It has been an interesting year,” confident going forward that air- Meijer thinks that several fac-
says Meijer, with a huge dollop of lines will look at our segment,” tors have hampered sales over the
understatement. he says. In the “new world after preceding years. Firstly, the rela-
Certainly the impact of the coro- Covid”, Embraer “can offer a very tive youth of the 1,500-strong first-
navirus downturn is evident from compelling product to help them generation E-Jet fleet has been a
its order and delivery activity: E-Jet
shipments have slowed to a trickle,
down to 16 in the first nine months
of 2020, from 54 a year earlier,
while only 20 new orders have been
“I believe airlines are committed
recorded. In addition, two E190-E2s
were added to the backlog follow-
to the E2 aircraft because they
ing Congo Airways’ conversion of
an existing order for a pair of E175s,
need them. That has not changed
while Switzerland’s Helvetic Air-
ways also converted four of its re- – the long-term need is still there”
maining firm E190-E2 orders to the
larger E195-E2. Arjan Meijer Chief executive, Embraer Commercial Aviation

Interview Arjan Meijer
top of which, Embraer hopes to “re-

duce the cost of the product signif-
icantly” as it leverages savings from
a company-wide efficiency drive.
Although Embraer may no longer
need a partner on the scale of
Boeing, where it does need an ally
is for the proposed development of
a new turboprop airliner. The Brazil-
ian airframer has been clear about
this all along – in January 2020 the
company’s message was broadly
“no [Boeing] JV, no TP” – Meijer re-
veals that Embraer is now in “active
talks” with interested parties.
173
Firm orders for E2-series jets; the
undelivered backlog stands at 151
“We still believe in the turbo-

prop, we have a good proposition
in mind. But we are very clear that
we are looking for a partner to bring
that to life,” he says.
Meijer declines to reveal details
on the discussions, but says the po-
tential collaborators are from both
the financial and industrial sectors.
As the aircraft remains at the
concept study stage and is yet to
be officially launched, there are
few firm details. But what Embraer
Embraer
has said so far is that it will sit in

the 70-100-seat segment – slightly
larger than the ATR 72-600 – and
Meijer took division’s top job in June
have conventional rather than hy-
brid-electric engines. It is also like-
ly to use the same fuselage as the
brake on new orders. “The E2 came was as a response to the acquisi- current E-Jets, in order to benefit
to the market rather soon in the life tion by Airbus of the CSeries – now from industrial synergies.
of the E-Jets – the E1 is still young,” the A220 – from Bombardier. Since The decision to opt for conven-
he says. But with that fleet now be- gaining the sales and marketing heft tional propulsion was a simple one,
ginning to age, many of the “mar- of Toulouse, the A220, which com- he says. “The market is not ready
quee” airlines that fly the older vari- petes with the E2 range, has secured yet, technically or economically, to
ant will be looking “to replace them several big orders, including from put another technology on a turbo-
with a more efficient successor”. JetBlue Airways and Air France. prop.” To add a hybrid-electric pow-
In addition, the “uncertainty” ertrain – even one delivering as little
around the merger with Boeing Market dynamic as 5-10% of the total requirement –
created another headwind, says That market dynamic does not ap- would increase operating costs by
Meijer. Announced in December pear to have vanished, but Meijer 15%. Or, as Meijer puts it: “It would
2017, negotiations over the deal seems sanguine about Embraer’s add a lot of cost for limited benefit.”
dragged on for over two years be- ability to stand on its own feet. Embraer’s strategy, he says, is to
fore it fell apart. Although he says Although he acknowledges that bring to market a turboprop that
it is impossible to quantify the im- he was “surprised and disappoint- delivers the step-change in sus-
pact, he notes that “as with any ed” when Boeing pulled the plug, tainability and operating econom-
market, uncertainty is never your he thinks that the coronavirus-re- ics that the original E-Jets offered
friend. The fact that it was not shaped market means some of over the previous generation of
clear that the deal would happen the logic that drove that deal no regional jets.
just did not help us.” longer applies. “They were the most sustaina-
But the chief rationale for the tie- Besides, he maintains, the E2 can ble and economical aircraft: that is
up with Boeing in the first place still out-compete the A220. And on what we will do going forward.” ◗ ❱

Interview Jackson Schneider
On the attack
Embraer defence chief sees more sales ahead for KC-390
Greg Waldron Singapore hopes to sign another international required special authorisations,
order for the type, he adds. special licences. But it was a great
“I’m pretty sure that the plane team effort… sure, it cost more in
W
hile not as deeply will be successful, and with or with- terms of energy and in terms of re-
affected as its com- out Boeing we can manage it very sources, but we were there.”
mercial aviation sibling well. The plane will be flying in all Meanwhile, Embraer is gearing
by the collapse of a continents, it’s a question of time.” up to produce the Saab Gripen E at
deal with Boeing, Embraer Defense Of course, the time required to its Gaviao Peixoto factory. Brasilia
& Security was still anticipating a get deals across the line increased has ordered 36 E/F-model fighters,
boost from a new relationship with in 2020 due to the restrictions im- locally designated the F-39, which
the US airframer. posed by Covid-19. involves substantial technology
That uplift was to come from Schneider says that sales cam- transfer to Brazil.
the creation of a joint venture to paigns have been particularly hit Saab is currently marketing the
sell Embraer’s KC-390 Millenium by the coronavirus, many of which Gripen E to Colombia, which is look-
tanker/transport – the division’s have been suspended as governing to replace its Cessna A-37s and
biggest and newest product. ments grapple with the pandemic. Israel Aerospace Industries-built
However, the Boeing deal col- “We didn’t lose any campaigns,” Kfirs. But should Bogota select the
lapsed in April. says Schneider. “We just suspend- Swedish jet, they are more than
Despite this, and the raging ed some of them and delayed oth- likely to be built at Gaviao Peixoto
coronavirus pandemic, divisional ers. But we are now retaking them. rather than Linkoping.
chief executive Jackson Schneider We believe that we will have the “We’ll be more than happy to
remains full of confidence. same momentum that we had be- help Saab to assemble planes not
In part, that is due to momen- fore the outbreak.” only for Colombia, but for other
tum for the KC-390: in November, countries as well,” says Schneider.
Hungary announced that it would Challenging times Just as Brazil partnered with oth-
acquire a pair of the twinjets to re- But the process of getting aircraft er nations for the development of
place its retired Antonov An-26s. to their customers has also been the KC-390, so Embraer is open to
This latest commitment takes to rendered more challenging. collaboration on its latest project.
35 total firm orders for the type: 28 Take the recent shipment of six Called the STOUT – Short Take
for Brazil (three have been deliv- A-29 Super Tucanos to the Phil- Off Utility Transport – the hy-
ered); two for Hungary; and five for ippines. It is a long journey at the brid-electric aircraft is being devel-
Portugal. A further 33 aircraft are best of times for a turboprop from oped for the Brazilian air force.
covered by letters of intent from Embraer’s Jacksonville, Florida fac- Schneider believes STOUT of-
Argentina, Chile, Colombia, the tory to Manila, but the coronavirus fers an opportunity for countries
Czech Republic and aviation ser- pandemic lent the delivery flight an interested in developing their own
vices firm SkyTech. epic quality, with stops in the Ca- aerospace industries. Embraer has
Schneider believes Embraer can nary Islands, Portugal, Malta, Egypt, already received enquiries about
win additional customers – even the United Arab Emirates, India, participation in the project, he says.
without a sales partner. Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam. “This is very good for countries
“Boeing may perhaps have added “It was a really big effort, because who want to master the aeronau-
Brazilian air force
some possibilities in terms of sales, you have to cross the world with a tical engineering process, because
but I think that we can manage it lot of [coronavirus] affected coun- you’ll be developing a plane from
alone,” he says. In 2021 Embraer tries,” he says. “Some were closed, scratch,” he says. ◗

Seoul International Aerospace & Defense Exhibition
October 19 - 24, 2021

Seoul Airport
www.seouladex.com
Strategy Investment
Ace flying high after first deal

French aerospace investment fund backed by private sector,
government and industry targets its next acquisitions
Dominic Perry London “revisit the strategy” to ensure it The Ace Aero fund is actively
is fully adapted to the new aero- seeking additional capital from the
space business environment. private sector to meet a target of
A
ce Aero Partenaires, the While Covid-19 likely hastened reaching €1 billion under manage-
public-private investment Aries’ need for a financial bailout, ment by some point next year.
fund backed by the top its issues pre-date the pandemic, Ace Aero has two streams of sup-
four companies in the says Lahoud. port for industry: direct financial in-
French aerospace industry, hopes Aries, which specialises in mak- vestment, as in the case of Aries,
to conclude its next set of deals in ing machines for aerospace pro- where a company needs rescuing;
the coming months, with the aim of duction, and the manufacture of and funding to assist consolidation
hitting “cruise speed” by mid-2021. complex metallic components, in the supply chain.
To date, the fund has €630 mil- “had been very successful not that While the former is available only
lion ($744 million) under man- long ago”, but “two or three bad to French businesses, the second is
agement, and has invested in one decisions” had hobbled it, he says. open to any aerospace company in
business since its July launch, in He sees a three- or four-year ef- Western Europe, says Lahoud; two
October acquiring Nantes-based fort required to fully transform the applications have already been re-
Aries Alliance. company, although he stresses that ceived from outside of the country
But “two or three cases are being Ace may not divest the business for this “platform” investment.
investigated deeply” says Marwan once the turnaround is achieved, di-
Lahoud, executive chairman of Ace verging from the traditional private Value chain
Management, the private equity equity model of seeking an exit and Businesses seeking funding are as-
firm that manages the fund. financial return after three years. sessed based on “their importance
“We are ready to take on another Ace Aero was established on the to the value chain”, he says: “How
situation like Aries, or other deals.” back of the French government’s key is the company in its technolo-
Lahoud, a former top Airbus ex- Plan Aero strategy, revealed in gy or the criticality of its deliveries.”
ecutive, says the investment in Ar- June, to support the country’s aer- While Ace Management may not
ies, which could eventually reach ospace industry through the pan- be a household name, this is not
€20 million, was needed due to the demic-induced crisis; Ace Manage- the first aerospace-related fund it
company’s parlous financial state. ment was chosen to run the fund has established: three previous ef-
“It is a very interesting and tech- after an open competition. forts saw sums of €50 million, €100
nology-rich company that was suf- Initial investment has come from million and €200 million managed,
fering from a very poor balance Tikehau Capital, Ace Management’s with investments including Me-
sheet,” he says. parent company, plus France’s big cachrome and Nexteam Group.
Ace will assist with the restruc- four aerospace primes – Airbus, Although the big four aerospace
turing of Aries’ debts, which Dassault, Safran and Thales – and firms are likely to see a financial re-
should be completed around the French government via its BPI turn on their investments, that is not
mid-December, and then help to France investment bank. their main motivation, says Lahoud.
“Their main focus is safeguard-
ing the key players for them, either
through support or gaining the
benefits of consolidation.”
UK aerospace trade body ADS
had hoped that the British govern-
ment would create a similar scheme
– which it refers to as a “patient
capital investment fund”. However,
there was no mention of any ded-
icated support for the aerospace
sector in the autumn spending re-
view announced by Chancellor Ri-
shi Sunak on 25 November.
Adrien Daste/Safran
ADS says it continues to discuss

with the government about what
“additional support they can offer
to supply chain companies who
need it”. However, it notes that it is
“too early to say exactly which di-
Safran has contributed to €630 million fund
rection these discussions will go”. ◗

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Bell Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com
Manufacturer has used modified 429

medium-twin to trial technology
Bell advances electric tail rotor

Airframer confident that it can bring design into production
as it analyses data from successful demonstration phase
Dominic Perry London “It is more realistic to look at five offs, sideways flight and cruise,
to 10 years before we can see such says Thuva Senthilnathan, pro-
a product commercially produced gramme manager, commercial de-
B
ell is confident that its on many aircraft,” Lavoie says. “We velopment programmes at Bell.
EDAT electric tail rotor sys- have a lot to do.” But an in-flight failure of one or
tem will eventually make The EDAT system comprises four more fans has yet to be tested, he
its way into production, al- distributed fixed-pitch fans driven says. “Given that this is a demon-
though the manufacturer cautions by separate electric motors, em- strator aircraft we didn’t want to try
that this may not happen for an- bedded in an enlarged vertical fin, a failure in the air. But we did eval-
other five to 10 years. in place of the traditional tail rotor. uate the thrust [produced] on the
Testing of EDAT (or electrically Power comes from generators ground and if we did lose one fan
distributed anti-torque) – which running off the tail rotor drive. we would still be able to hover safe-
replaces the traditional mechanical Cables replace the usual drive- ly and get back onto the ground.”
tail rotor with four electric-pow- shaft and gearbox assembly, re- While the medium-twin 429 was
ered fans – has been taking place ducing complexity. The fans run at selected for the demonstration ef-
at Bell’s Mirabel, Canada facility around 6,000-7,000rpm but can fort, Senthilnathan says that the
since May 2019 using a modified be individually slowed or reversed technology would be suitable for
429 helicopter. depending on requirements. any size of helicopter. However,
On 14 December, the airfram- he notes that “a bigger aircraft is
er showcased the system at Ae- Improved safety more forgiving” in terms of the ad-
ro-Montreal’s 2020 Innovation Bell cites improved safety, lower dition of extra components.
Forum. Speaking at the event, noise levels and reduced opera- As part of the optimisation pro-
Steeve Lavoie, president of Bell tional and maintenance costs as cess, Bell is looking at how to bal-
Textron Canada, said it was a “me- key advantages for the system. It ance the cost and weight of EDAT.
dium- to long-term goal” to bring has accumulated around 25h of “One challenge is to package the
EDAT into commercial service. ground and flight testing to date. system in such a way that it is pal-
Although declining to offer a Although it will not offer spe- atable to the market,” he says.
more specific timeframe, Lavoie cifics, Bell says in tests the EDAT Recent patent awards in the USA
says the system “will be put on to a system produced lower noise levels show that Bell is keen to advance
programme at a certain point”. than a conventional tail rotor. Using beyond the basic EDAT concept.
Bell continues to analyse the re- optimised components – rather Senthilnathan says the company
sults from the EDAT demonstration than off-the-shelf parts as on the will in future evaluate other con-
phase, and will then work to opti- demonstrator – would reduce this figurations, either on the ground
mise the system in order to bring further, it says. or in flight. In a filing that was ap-
it to the required technology readi- A number of flight phases have proved on 29 September, the man-
ness level, he says. been evaluated, including take- ufacturer outlines an anti-torque

Technology Research
system that could pivot to provide

directional thrust depending on
the flight mode.
Drawings submitted with the fil-
ing show an array of six “fixed blade
pitch motors” arranged in a circle,
with a seventh motor in the centre;
these are depicted as both shroud-
ed and unshrouded configurations.
However, the patent’s text makes
clear that Bell sees the potential for
an anti-torque assembly with “15 or
more fixed blade pitch motors” de- A second take for tiltrotor technology
pending on the application.
While many of Bell’s newest longer missions [or] reduced fuel
Variable thrust patents are for individual consumption”, it states.
Individual electric-powered mo- components or structures, perhaps Wing “down-loading” could
tors, or the entire assembly, may the most striking of the recent be cut further with the use of a
be surrounded by a cowl, and all designs is for a biplane tiltrotor. forward lift-generating canard,
or some could be pivoted to vary Images submitted as part of allowing the chord of the upper
the direction of thrust. Bell says the patent application show wing to be made even smaller.
the assembly would be in line with several variants of the biplane The biplane design would also
the tail boom during hover and design – with the wings variously provide “additional structural
“substantially perpendicular” dur- parallel, or in anhedral or dihedral support” for tiltrotor components
ing forward flight. orientations. Also shown is a sited at the end of the wings, such
Thrust directed towards the rear four-rotor design with two pairs as nacelles and pylons. Because
of the helicopter would add “to the of wings. the complete design is stiffer,
forward thrust, which is generally Bell argues in the patent overall weight could be reduced,
used in high airspeed cruise”, the – granted on 17 November – says the filing.
patent says, and would “increase that the biplane configuration In a sign that Bell has military
cruise efficiency”. eliminates some of the applications for the technology
The system’s deployment, and “drawbacks” of a conventional, firmly in mind, one illustration
the direction and speed of the fans monoplane tiltrotor. shows weapons mounted on
would be regulated by a flight-con- Because both the upper and the lower wing. “In this manner,
trol computer “to position the an- lower wings provide lift, they weapon ordnance is mounted in
ti-torque assembly system for opti- can be smaller than that of a a location that is unobstructed by
mum thrust angle… and magnitude”. monoplane design – for example, the blades of the tiltrotors”, the
Bell states that the variable di- the chord of the upper wing can application states.
Bell/US Patent and Trademark Office

rection assembly could enable the be reduced by “roughly 50%”. Bell is a major advocate of
elimination of vertical and hori- This cuts the magnitude of the tiltrotor technology. It currently
zontal stabilisers from helicopter downward force caused by the produces the V-22 Osprey in
designs, saving weight and re- rotor downwash on the upper collaboration with Boeing,
ducing complexity. For example, wing in helicopter mode, boosting and has submitted the next-
it would remove down-loading – the lift from those rotors. generation V-280 Valor for the
where the wash from the main ro- This improved efficiency US Army’s Future Long-Range
tor exerts a downward force on the allows for “a larger payload, Assault Aircraft requirement.
horizontal stabiliser. ◗
for Stowage Bins
Shorten Aircraft Turns

Passenger Convenience
www.komy.com

A decade in the shadows

Beijing has kept a veil of secrecy over
its J-20 stealth fighter programme
since 2011 – and we should not
expect that to change soon
AirTeamImages
PLAAF is keen to emphasise

type’s manoeuvrability
Greg Waldron Singapore amateurs alike pore over every pho- the show, there was not an image
tograph that emerges of the icon- or model of the J-20 to be found.
ic, twin-tailed type, noting fuselage Two years later, four J-20s par-
T
en years after its maiden numbers, design tweaks, and most ticipated in the flying display, but
flight, the Chengdu J-20 importantly the J-20’s all-important there was a lack of aggressive ma-
remains the world’s most engines. By comparison, the suc- noeuvres, such as those which are
enigmatic fighter. cesses and failures of the Lockheed routine for the fighter to which the
On 11 January 2011, then-US Martin F-35 are an open book. J-20 is most often compared: the
defence secretary Robert Gates In those early days of the J-20, US Air Force’s Lockheed F-22.
sat down with Chinese premier what intelligence there was had to The 2018 Zhuhai show saw anoth-
Hu Jintao in Beijing to discuss ways be derived from aviation enthu- er first, with AVIC distributing a fly-
to improve defence ties. Just hours siasts near the Chengdu airfield er with this brief description: “The
before, images of the maiden flight where the type is produced. Video J-20 developed independently by
had flooded China’s internet. and photographs of matt black China is a heavy stealth fourth-gen-
“This is about as big a ‘f*** you’ J-20s were frequently posted on eration fighter (aka fifth-genera-
as you can get,” an aide told Gates, China’s internet. tion internationally), renowned for
according to his memoir. its dominant role of medium- and
Gates’s team considered call- Public appearances long-range air combat and excel-
ing the high-level meeting off Over the years, however, the steady lent capability in ground and ma-
altogether. Instead, he asked Hu stream of imagery and video from rine precision strike.”
directly about the test. The Chi- Chengdu has fallen off. This poten- Rod Lee, research director at the
nese civilians in the room seemed tially relates to a tighter security China Aerospace Studies Institute
shocked by the query, apparently environment in China in the era of (CASI), believes there are three
unaware of the milestone. President Xi Jinping. Still, there are primary mission sets for the J-20.
After several minutes of discus- plenty of sightings from air bases The first is destroying high-value
sion between the Chinese delega- around China and in satellite im- airborne assets. “The combination
tion, Hu finally told Gates that the ages, and the J-20 has also made of a large combat radius with long-
roll-out had been a “previously some public appearances. range air-to-air missiles and low
scheduled scientific test”. Gates In November 2016, a pair of Peo- visibility should enable J-20s to
believes the People’s Liberation ple’s Liberation Army Air Force prosecute [airborne early warning
Army (PLA) would have given him (PLAAF) J-20s conducted a brief and control/intelligence, surveil-
a different explanation. flypast at the opening ceremony lance and reconnaissance (ISR)]
In this dramatic fashion, the J-20 of Airshow China in Zhuhai. Their aircraft, as well as tankers,” he says.
entered the fighter world’s cen- appearance was a major sensation, “Conceptually, the PLAAF talks
tral stage. Aviation experts and but in the vast AVIC display inside about rolling back these high-value
Download the 2021

IN ASSOCIATION WITH
Wo r l d A i r Fo r c e s R e p o r t
FlightGlobal.com/waf

Anniversary Chinese air power
targets as being a major part of

establishing air superiority. This
is backed by semi-authoritative
sources in AVIC, who suggest that
J-20 is a platform that can ‘pierce
the net’ for other aircraft.”
Supplemental mission sets in-
clude launching anti-radiation mis-
Chinese social media

siles and air-to-ground munitions.
The PLAAF believes stealthy air-
craft are essential for prosecuting
key nodes, owing to the element of
surprise. The last role Lee suggests
is destroying other fighters in air-
Large canards appear at
to-air engagements.
odds with stealth claims
“The PLAAF does indeed like
to tout the J-20’s manoeuvra-
bility and air-to-air combat per-
formance,” he says. “Given this, Even less is known about the considerable “noise” across the
the PLAAF almost certainly will J-20’s other key technologies. It is electromagnetic spectrum.
use the J-20 as an air superiority taken for granted that the type has “The threat of J-20s with long-
fighter against other fighters. But an active electronically scanned ar- range PL-15 missiles operating with-
the PLA de-emphasises the im- ray radar, but the capabilities of its in the background chaos would be
portance of attrition warfare and distributed aperture system (DAS) a major headache for US planners
instead advocates a ‘systems de- are a matter of speculation. attempting to protect critical tanker
struction’ approach. Killing indi- The F-35’s ability to fuse data and ISR orbits within useful range of
vidual adversary fighters (even in from its radar, DAS and other sys- the area of operations,” he writes.
large numbers) is not as useful as tems offers excellent situational
killing [high-value airborne assets] awareness, and can inform external Airborne threat
and key ground targets.” platforms through datalinks. But Two small weapons bays – one
this advanced technology proved mounted on the side of each engine
Estimated numbers troublesome even for the USA. intake – can accommodate PL-10
Andreas Rupprecht, an avid ob- On the matter of stealth, Royal short-range air-to-air missiles, while
server of Chinese military aviation United Services Institute analyst a pair of larger bays beneath the
and author of Modern Chinese War- Justin Bronk classifies the J-20 as a fuselage have been photographed
planes, says some estimates of J-20 low-observable (LO) aircraft, while carrying two long-range air-to-air
strength put the overall number at classifying the F-22 and F-35 as missiles each. The J-20 also has four
40-60 airframes, but says only 20 very-low-observable (VLO). external hardpoints that can carry
examples have been confirmed. ordnance or external fuel tanks.
Rupprecht believes prototypes Asked about possible weakness-
should be designated J-20s, and
low-rate initial production exam-
ples powered by Russian Saturn
AL-31FN engines as J-20As. Air-
20 es, CASI’s Lee identifies two. Since
Chinese aviation brigades provide
organic support to their aircraft,
any J-20s deploying to a remote
craft using indigenous WS-10C Confirmed examples of J-20, but total base will need to travel with their
Taihang engines would be J-20Bs, strength estimated at 40-60 airframes own support elements.
and those with advanced WS-15 “Given that other PLAAF fighters
Emei powerplants C-models. like the [Chengdu] J-10 and [Shen-
Based on images of recent J-20s, “The J-20A features forward yang] J-11 are far more prolific, they
Rupprecht believes that since mid- canards, which are not ideal from could probably get away with for-
2019 all factory-fresh examples use a VLO perspective, and initial ward deploying a detachment to
WS-10C engines, with distinctive batches have been powered by another airfield with J-10s and not
sawtooth exhaust feathers, and AL-31-series engines without LO bringing maintenance personnel.
that a WS-15-powered aircraft is serrated nozzles,” Bronk wrote in The J-20s don’t have that luxury.”
in testing. The latter standard will a recent report. Lee notes that the PLA has ac-
take until 2025 to reach operation- “These engines not only leave knowledged that its older officers
al service, he estimates. the design somewhat under- are not capable of dealing with
While the use of WS-10Cs is a ma- powered and likely unable to modern warfare, so planners may
jor breakthrough, in that it erodes supercruise, but also increase the not be able to fully appreciate the
Chinese dependence on Russian [radar cross-section] when the air- J-20’s advanced capabilities.
engines, estimates suggest that craft is viewed from the rear, over- The J-20 should come of age
the WS-15 will have a maximum head or underneath.” during its second decade, remain-
thrust rating of 40,500lb (180kN), The J-20’s degree of stealth, ing a powerful symbol of China’s
potentially enabling ‘supercruise’ however, is suitable for an aircraft military ambitions. But while it is
performance: the ability to sustain operating near Chinese airspace Beijing’s most talked about fighter,
supersonic speed without main- with a great deal of background it will also continue to be subject to
taining the use of afterburners. clutter, such as non-LO aircraft and its obsession with secrecy. ◗

Defence Development
France launches
Naval Group
future carrier study 75,000t vessel will
embark up to 30
combat aircraft
Replacement for Charles de Gaulle flagship due in 2038, with

New Generation Fighter on board to deliver offensive power
Craig Hoyle London reactors – Naval Group says this with Dassault Aviation being the
will ensure “considerable auton- prime partner.
omy at sea and a great flexibility “A navy application has an impact
P
aris has begun the process of use” – and also feature new- on [aircraft] structure and [landing
of designing a replacement generation launch and recovery approach] speed, but maybe it can
for its nuclear-powered equipment including electromag- also help increase the performance
aircraft carrier Charles de netic catapults. by making the fighter able to fly
Gaulle, with industrial lead Naval The defence ministry says it is too slow and fast,” he notes.
Group saying its successor will be early to decide whether the navy Fichefeux says Airbus and
“the biggest warship France has should acquire one or two replace- Dassault in September submit-
ever built”. ment ships, but notes: “two aircraft ted information on “the five best
French President Emmanuel carriers guarantee to always have architectures” for FCAS, with these
Macron on 8 December launched one on alert”. validated by the three nations’ air
the Porte-Avions Nouvelle Gener- France’s current lone aircraft force chiefs. The proposals include
ation project, which will deliver an carrier entered operational use in large and small fighters, remote
operational replacement for the 2001. The navy embarks Dassault carrier vehicles and loyal wing-
navy’s current flagship in 2038. Rafale fighters and Northrop Grum- man-type unmanned platforms.
France’s defence ministry says man E-2C Hawkeye airborne early Meanwhile, Spain’s aerospace
the new vessel should have a dis- warning and control system aircraft, industry has been formally includ-
placement of around 75,000t and along with support helicopters. ed within the FCAS initiative’s
be about 300m (984ft) long. It will Joint Concept Study activity and
deploy an air wing including up to Combat options Phase 1A work package, following
30 examples of a New Generation Concept images of a future carrier a 10-month “onboarding” process.
Fighter (NGF) being developed by released by Naval Group show the Airbus Spain will head NGF ac-
France, Germany and Spain. vessel carrying either a full load of tivities for Madrid, and be prime
A two-year preliminary design NGF combat aircraft, or a mix of contractor on low observable tech-
study will be followed by detailed the type alongside Rafales, along nology, working in partnership
design studies running until late with Hawkeyes and NH Industries with Airbus Germany and Dassault.
2025, ahead of a contract for full NH90 helicopters. Indra is to lead the project’s sen-
development and construction. The subject of a tri-national de- sor-related activities.
“This project will help develop velopment effort as part of their Fichefeux says €300 million
jobs in the defence industrial and Future Combat Air System (FCAS) ($363 million) has been invested in
technological base and ensure programme, the stealthy NGF – the FCAS project since early 2019,
the continuity of our skills in the also called SCAF by France – is ex- and that negotiations are ongo-
current health and economic cri- pected to be larger than the Rafale. ing with the nations and industrial
sis,” says Naval Group chief exec- “The fighter and the systems we partners to determine their contri-
utive Pierre Eric Pommellet. Its ma- develop will have to be compati- bution beyond the end of 2021.
jor industrial partners are Chantiers ble with navy applications, includ- “Next year we will go from a
de l’Atlantique, Dassault Aviation ing to land on an aircraft carrier,” few millions to billions,” he says.
and TechnicAtome. Bruno Fichefeux, head of FCAS “We need to reach this point of
To meet the entry into service for Airbus Defence & Space, said commitment to give perspective
objective, Paris expects the new on 9 December. “Finding the right to the industry, and to reach the
ship to commence trials in 2036. trade-off will be our challenge, and irreversible path for the develop-
It will be powered by two nuclear we are strongly dedicated there, ment of FCAS.” ◗

Defence Technology
USAF trials breakthrough network

GatewayONE technology successfully links stealth fighter
communications, with unmanned Valkyrie also in formation
Garrett Reim Los Angeles
A
Lockheed Martin F-22,
F-35A and Kratos Defense
XQ-58A Valkyrie “loyal
wingman” flew in forma-
tion for the first time on 9 Decem-
ber, above the US Army’s Yuma
Proving Ground in Arizona.
The formation flight was part
of an attempted demonstration of
US Air Force
data transmission between the trio
of aircraft. The F-22 and F-35A suc-
cessfully shared information via the
on-trial “gatewayONE” technology,
Raptor and Lightning II joined
but the unmanned platform was
forces with ‘loyal wingman’
unable to link up, the US Air Force
(USAF) says.
The USAF’s two fifth-generation
fighters have secure communica- autonomously pass information Tactical Targeting Network Tech-
tion systems that cannot “talk” di- around the battlefield. nology waveform and a USAF Boe-
rectly to one another – the Raptor “The future is promising, and ing KC-46A Pegasus tanker serving
has an Intra-Flight Data Link, while gatewayONE will allow the F-22 as a communications node.
the Lightning II employs a Multi- and F-35 to connect to and feed The service’s tanker fleet will
functional Advanced Data Link – data sources they have never be- be an important early part of the
forcing complex workarounds dur- fore accessed,” says Lieutenant ABMS network, Will Roper, assis-
ing operations. Colonel Eric Wright, a 59th Test tant secretary of the air force for
“Not only can gatewayONE and Evaluation Squadron F-35 pi- acquisition, technology and logis-
translate between those formats, in lot. “Those future connections will tics, told an Air Force Association
this test it moved data that is nor- bring additional battlefield aware- event on 14 December.
mally relegated to an operations ness into the cockpit and enable “We have already selected
centre or tactical ground node, integrated fires across US forces.” ABMS release one, which is a
directly pushing it into the cockpit As part of the demonstration, the subset of capabilities that make a
at the edge of the multi-domain XQ-58A was rocket-launched, and mini-internet, that gets data from
battlespace for the first time,” says made a “semi-autonomous” flight cloud [computing and storage]
the USAF. alongside the manned fighters for forward to the tactical edge to our
“Additionally, the test pushed the the first time. fighters, via mobility gateways and
position data of each platform out- analytics that will be fielded on our
side of the aircraft’s close-proximi- Lost connectivity tanker fleet,” he says.
ty formation through gatewayONE, “The gatewayONE payload was The USAF’s aim is to mimic many
which enables battle managers on integrated into the Valkyrie for its of the functions of the modern ci-
the ground or in the air to better maiden voyage with the fifth-gen- vilian internet, using artificial intel-
orchestrate operations.” eration fighters to conduct an ligence and other forms of auto-
The communications device initial test of gateway capabili- mation to make fast suggestions to
also “passed tracks or cues from ties from an attritable platform,” decision makers on the battlefield.
ground operators to both fighters, says the USAF. “However, shortly “It’s a microcosm of the inter-
and passed a cue from the F-35A after take-off, the communications net, where the cloud is there, the
to the F-22 for the first time,” says payloads lost connectivity and analytics are there, the tanker is
the service. The relayed informa- those test objectives were unable playing the role of a cell tower,”
tion was presented on the fighter’s to be accomplished.” Roper says. “It’s routing data back
normal displays. The demonstration flight pro- and forth between the cloud and
GatewayONE is part of the gramme had 18 test objectives, users. The users are the fighters
USAF’s Advanced Battlefield Man- with nine successfully completed, that are inside that area denial,
agement System (ABMS) devel- the service says. communication denial bubble, that
opment programme – an effort to Additionally, a US Marine Corps are not denied talking with the
create a military internet-of-things F-35B sent full-motion video to tanker that is standing just outside
network that will quickly and a ground controller using the of harm’s way.” ◗

Development Air taxi
Lilium puts down roots for growth

German electric air taxi developer signs pair of critical deals
covering pilot training and location for first US ‘vertiport’ hub
Dominic Perry London
L
ilium has selected Lufthansa’s
training arm to develop a
programme that will deliv-
er a pipeline of qualified pi-
lots for its developmental electric
air taxi, as the Bavarian start-up
solves another part of its pre-
launch puzzle.
The news of the training tie-up in
early December came just weeks af-
ter the announcement that Orlando
Planned Orlando site is next to
in Florida was to be the company’s
Lilium
the city’s international airport
launch location in the USA, after it
struck a deal with the city authori-
ties and Florida real estate special-
ist Tavistock Development. However, Gerber is confident that develop a network of destinations
Both deals illustrate important the training can be made “afforda- across the Sunshine State.
progress for the programme as Lil- ble”, allowing would-be aviators a While he declines to name the
ium slowly assembles the founda- path into the industry. other points, Gerber says the tar-
tions that will support the roll-out Gerber says that Lilium is con- gets are “key neighbouring towns”.
of operations from 2025. templating potential funding solu- Given the Lilium Jet’s 162nm
Under the new contract, tions to assist with training costs. (300km) range, that includes Tam-
Lufthansa Aviation Training (LAT) The training programme will be pa on the Gulf Coast, Jacksonville
will initially develop a bespoke type defined over the next 24 months, in the north of the state, or Fort
rating course for qualified commer- says Gerber. “The work really starts Myers to the southwest.
cial pilots. now. In a sense, this is the begin- However, Gerber admits that,
Lilium needs to ensure that there ning of the academy.” at present, Miami and state capital
are crews available to support the A first batch of recruits will be Tallahassee will not be reachable
start of commercial services in required over the next three years. by the first-generation of the five-
about four years’ time and, crucial- A location has yet to be select- seat jet in a single journey.
ly, the rapid ramp-up of services ed for the academy; LAT has eight While Orlando will be the first lo-
that it hopes will follow, says Remo sites in Germany, two in Switzer- cation in the USA, Lilium in Septem-
Gerber, chief operating officer. land and one in Austria, plus an ad- ber signed a deal with Cologne/
Gerber says the partners will ditional facility in Phoenix, Arizona. Bonn and Dusseldorf airports to
take advantage of new technol- create the necessary infrastructure
ogies, such as mixed- and virtu- Certification plans at the sites to support regional air
al reality simulation, to “push the The partners will also work togeth- services with its aircraft.
boundaries” and optimise the er with the European and US regu- Development of the Lilium Jet is
training syllabus. latory authorities on certification of continuing at the company’s site
With its tilting banks of elec- the training programme. in Oberpfaffenhofen near Munich,
tric-powered fans, and vertical Lilium has yet to conduct a although coronavirus restrictions
take-off and landing capability, manned flight of its aircraft, with curtailed plans to fly its second
the Lilium Jet has a unique design, that milestone to come only when demonstrator aircraft in 2020.
compared with existing fixed- or it flies the first certification article The initial example was de-
rotary-wing aircraft, and therefore in 2021 or 2022. stroyed in a February battery fire
requires a tailored training regime, Meanwhile, Lilium’s initial US shortly before the pandemic took
he adds. base is to be located in Orlando’s hold. Its successor was due to take
Gerber declines to reveal the Lake Nona suburb – immediately to the skies at some point in 2020,
planned annual pilot throughput. adjacent to the city’s international but Gerber says this is now “antic-
Although the launch of operations airport – where the first “vertiport” ipated” in the first quarter of 2021.
could be achieved with a relatively hub will be built by Tavistock. However, he stresses that the
modest number of pilots, Lilium’s As yet, no other locations have demonstrator is “not really our
intention to “start scaling up [ser- been signed up for vertiport con- main focus right now”, with that in-
vices] quite quickly”, means the struction, but Gerber confirms stead switching to the initial certifi-
requirement is “quite intense”. that negotiations are under way to cation aircraft. ◗

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Fighters Competition
Bern closes in on fighter selection

Alpine nation’s search for next generation fleet is on target
for conclusion by middle of 2021, after receiving final offers
Craig Hoyle London
S
witzerland’s protracted
search for a new fighter is
finally nearing an end, with
Bern on course to select
from its current four candidates
during the second quarter of 2021.
The nation’s Armasuisse pro-
curement agency on 18 Novem-
Armasuisse
ber received responses to its final
Air2030 request for proposals,
which sought information on the
The USA has offered Switzerland up to 40
supply of 36 or 40 combat aircraft,
F-35As, including four built in Emmen
and ground-based air-defence
system equipment.
Pegged at €6 billion ($7.1 billion),
the new fighter aircraft acquisition chief executive of Airbus Defence deployed spares package suffi-
will from 2030 replace a fleet of & Space, which is leading the cient to support six months of
Boeing F/A-18C/D Hornets and ob- Eurofighter campaign. normal operations.
solete Northrop F-5 interceptors. The German government is sup- Kelley says the offer contains a
The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Das- porting its offer, proposing “closer “limited” weapons package. “That
sault Rafale, Eurofighter and Lock- political, economic and security package is a little bit smaller than
heed Martin F-35A are contenders co-operation”, and expanded train- many people would expect, but
for the deal, having undergone ing between the nations’ air forces. that’s because the existing inven-
evaluations at Payerne air base be- Dassault has not disclosed de- tory of munitions that the Swiss air
tween April and June 2019. tails of its offer, while the US gov- force has for the Hornet fleet are
Submissions were made three ernment submitted Foreign Military by and large fully operational with
months later than originally sched- Sales programme proposals for the F-35,” he notes.
uled, giving bidders more time to both the Super Hornet and F-35A. Lockheed has identified compa-
prepare amid the coronavirus pan- nies to place work with in “all three
demic’s disruption. Optional extras language regions” of the country,
“With that, Armasuisse starts to Mike Kelley, Lockheed’s managing including directly on the Swiss
work on the evaluation reports, director in Switzerland, says its aircraft. It is proposing to make
which are planned to be complet- proposal includes 36 F-35As with Switzerland a “European centre”
ed in the first quarter of 2021,” the associated training and sustain- for F-35 transparencies and can-
nation’s federal department for ment services, plus “discrete pric- opies, and to establish a national
defence, civil protection and sport ing” for an optional four additional cyber centre, “with a testbed for
says. This will be followed by a type examples, to be built in the country. network environments”.
selection by mid-year. Should Switzerland select the “We believe that when fully
“By the end of 2021, we will stealthy type and take up the lo- evaluated by Armasuisse, it will
prepare the armament bill 2022 cal assembly offer, work would be be concluded that the entire
in terms of content,” says Peter conducted at RUAG’s facilities in 40-aircraft programme and all the
Winter, Armasuisse’s director of Emmen using Swiss personnel, and other aspects will fit within the
aeronautical systems and pro- also cover test activities. approved Swiss budget,” Kelley
gramme director Air2030. “This “Switzerland has some very says. F-35A deliveries would run
means that the negotiations need unique requirements for autonomy from 2027 to 2030.
to be concluded by then and the and sovereignty in operations,” The current process marks the
contracts prepared.” says Kelley. The experience gained nation’s second attempt to acquire
Bern also requires offset busi- from in-country assembly would new fighters. In May 2014, a pro-
ness valued at 60% of the total boost its ability to perform MRO posed purchase of 22 Gripen Es
programme cost. tasks over an expected 30-year- as F-5 replacements was rejected
“By providing construction data plus operational life, he adds. during a public referendum.
and other important information, Switzerland would join Lock- In September 2020, the Swiss
Switzerland will be given com- heed’s F-35 global sustainment government won the support
plete and independent control of programme, and, at the request of 50.1% of voters to advance its
the Eurofighter,” says Dirk Hoke, of Armasuisse, also supply a latest procurement. ◗

Safety Analysis
About half of pilots did not

achieve the required vertical rate
in response to “climb” or “descend”
orders, despite a “generous” mar-
gin granted by the analysis, while
the level of opposite reactions
reached 22%.
“Opposite reactions are the most
critical cases from the safety point
of view,” the analysis points out.
Eurocontrol admits that the study
is “not well placed” to determine
directly whether safety is degraded
Gajus/Shutterstock
when pilots do not follow the advi-

sories correctly.
“However, it can be assumed that
any incorrect responses to [adviso-
Study assessed 1,184 alerts
ries] may fail to resolve a collision,”
over a 12-month period
it adds. “The study found a number
of cases where, in the absence of
correct pilot response, vertical sep-
aration at the closest point of ap-
Analysis highlights proach was significantly reduced.”
Insignificant?
raised collision risk But it acknowledges that the rel-

ative infrequency of these cases –
and other factors which affected
the vertical separation – meant the
Research from Eurocontrol suggests a analysis could not obtain statisti-
cally-significant conclusions.
high percentage of airline crews do not International pilot association
IFALPA and air traffic control-
follow automated advisories properly ler counterpart IFATCA have ex-
pressed dismay at the findings,
stating that the trend of non-com-
pliance “remains alarming”.
David Kaminski-Morrow London 1,000 lasting at least 12s, and 823 “While resolution advisories are
lasting 16s or more. rare events, when they happen the
“The study has shown that a situation may be critical, and cor-
A
nalysis of airborne con- significant proportion of [adviso- rect action must be taken prompt-
flicts in core European ries] are not flown correctly,” the ly,” they add.
airspace has revealed analysis states. Pilots should always follow an
that a substantial pro- Compliance varies depending on advisory and – in any case – should
portion of collision-avoidance the type of advisory and duration. never manoeuvre in the opposite
manoeuvres are not flown correct- The analysis found that the level of direction, says IFALPA, adding
ly after on-board systems issue correct compliance with the first that crews should not assume an
resolution instructions. advisory, after 8s, was only 38% – aircraft visible from the cockpit is
Eurocontrol has published the with nearly 24% of advisories not the same one displayed on colli-
findings of an assessment cover- followed and 33% followed in the sion-avoidance systems.
ing 12 months of operations and opposite direction. Controllers should be informed
examining 1,184 resolution adviso- While compliance with some that advisories are being followed,
ries – automated orders to pilots types of advisory improved if it in order to prevent possible con-
from collision-avoidance systems lasted 12s or longer, corrective flicts of instructions. IFATCA adds
intended to de-conflict aircraft and “climb” and “descend” instructions that pilots should not be told
restore safe separation. were “frequently not followed cor- to maintain vertical rates until a
Some 64% of the advisories were rectly, regardless of their duration”, cleared level unless necessary, as
“level off” instructions, typical- the analysis says, with compliance this limits their flexibility to reduce
ly issued when a rapidly-climbing never exceeding 30%. closure rates and reduce nuisance
aircraft is approaching its cleared “level off” advisories.
altitude while another aircraft is Operators should consider mak-
present at an adjacent level. Anoth-
er 23% of advisories were instruc-
tions to “climb” or “descend”.
Shorter alerts were filtered out.
33% ing advisory responses a focus for
recurrent training, the associations
say, stressing that collision-avoid-
ance alerts are supposed to be a
The 1,184 advisories examined had Proportion of advisories followed “last resort” rather than a mecha-
lasted 8s or more, with just over in the opposite direction nism for separation assurance. ◗

Udvar-Hazy sees path

out of crisis
Air Lease boss eyes industry rebound
and outlines why Boeing should rename
the Max – and what it should build next
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa “What I would like Boeing to build
and what they can build, and afford
to build, are two different things,”
Y
ou would have a hard Udvar-Hazy tells FlightGlobal.
time finding anyone who But first – his travels. A Hungari-
has travelled as much in an immigrant to the USA, 74-year-
recent months as Steven old Udvar-Hazy holds both US and
Udvar-Hazy. European passports, which, in the
Destinations recently visited age of a pandemic, means he can
by the executive chairman of Los travel more freely than most.
Angeles-based Air Lease include Here’s how he describes the
numerous countries in Europe, responses he’s seen to Covid-19
where he has met with various across Europe.
airline customers. Amsterdam: “Things were kind
The meetings helped Udvar-Hazy, of loose… A lot of people were not
whose company is among the wearing masks… really open.” Ger-
world’s largest aircraft lessors, many: “Pretty strict.” Stockholm:
keep a finger on the global airline “I didn’t see one person wearing a Leasing chief believes more airlines may
industry’s pulse. mask… It was just business as usu- go under as a result of the pandemic
He also experienced, first hand, al.” Portugal: “Very much restrict-
stark differences in how various ed, and masked.”
countries have responded to the
coronavirus. Those differences Substantial recovery? much more optimistic than previ-
exemplify precisely why nations Faced with that patchwork of ous predictions, which put recov-
have struggled to implement restrictions it is “really hard to get ery much further out.
standard Covid-related travel and unanimous regulatory framework To date, the Covid-19 slump has
testing protocols. in place,” he says. claimed surprisingly few airlines.
Udvar-Hazy believes more In recent weeks, Udvar-Hazy The collection of unfortunates –
airlines may fall victim to the says, he has talked with execu- and not all ceased service solely
downturn seen in 2020. But he sus- tives at more than 100 airlines. And because of Covid-19 – largely com-
pects most global network-style many – particularly those in Europe prises small airlines and subsidiar-
carriers will survive, and he is en- – suspect some form of substantial ies of larger carriers. Among them:
couraged by predictions of a recovery could come by mid-2021. AirAsia Japan, LATAM Airlines
rebound in mid-2021. “By the middle of next summer Argentina, NokScoot, South Afri-
As for the aerospace sector, – that’s the same thing I’m hearing can Airlines, SunExpress Germany,
Udvar-Hazy sees particular uncer- from most of the European CEOs,” and US regional carriers Compass
tainty coming from Boeing. A man Udvar-Hazy says. Airlines, ExpressJet Airlines and
who has long influenced devel- No-one is predicting such a re- Trans States Airlines.
opment of new jets, he questions bound in the international, long- Udvar-Hazy thinks additional
whether Seattle now has the re- haul segment. But the prospect of failures are possible, citing Scan-
sources needed to develop a com- so many people travelling on short- dinavian budget carrier Norwe-
pelling rival to the Airbus A321neo. haul flights within six months feels gian as an example. The airline has
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Interview Steven Udvar-Hazy
BillyPix
initiated formal financial restruc- Although the industry’s woes At the moment, airlines have no
turing in both its home country and have led airlines to push off air- use for those lost seats, but they
in Ireland, where its Norwegian Air craft deliveries, Udvar-Hazy will when the recovery takes hold,
International and Arctic Aviation doubts demand for new jets will he suspects.
Assets subsidiaries are based. remain depressed for long. He That’s one reason Udvar-
“AirAsia X is on the intensive notes that following the financial Hazy thinks that the 737 Max
care list,” Udvar-Hazy adds. And he crisis of 2008-2009, “airlines were will rebound from its 20-month
suspects Mexico’s Interjet may not bent on growth and getting more grounding and reputational crisis.
survive the downturn either. market share”. He has good reason to hope so, as
Canadian leisure airline Air Transat Air Lease had outstanding orders Air Lease is among Boeing’s 737
is also “a little bit vulnerable”, espe- for 372 Airbus and Boeing jets as Max customers. It had 15 of the
cially if a planned acquisition by Air of the end of September, according jets and another 107 on order at
Canada falls through and if Ottawa to a recent regulatory filing, with a the end of September, according
fails to approve an airline rescue further 308 already on its books. to financial reports.
package, Udvar-Hazy warns. Udvar-Hazy notes that hundreds
But, in his view, most “national flag Final flights of airlines collectively operate
carriers” and other traditional net- The pandemic has prompted air- thousands of 737s – a “tremendous
work-style long-haul international lines to retire huge fleets of aircraft. embedded fleet”, which at some
airlines will likely muddle through First, they accelerated the demise point will need replacing.
the pandemic thanks to various of types already on the chopping “There is a base of customers [for
forms of government aid. block, before also dispensing with whom] the natural migration is to
“The probability of one of those newer models, for instance A380s. go to the Max,” Udvar-Hazy says.
large intercontinental network car- “All of a sudden there was He is among those who think the
riers going out of business is very a massive retirement cycle,” “Max” name, synonymous as it is
remote,” Udvar-Hazy says. Udvar-Hazy says. with two fatal crashes and a lengthy
Latin American airlines have And carriers are not only flying grounding, should be scrapped in
been less successful in securing fewer aircraft – they are flying, on favour of the simple 737-8, -9 and
government assistance, but Ud- average, smaller jets. Udvar-Hazy -10 designations.
var-Hazy suggests carriers such suspects the number of seats per Boeing’s Max orderbook has
as Avianca, Gol and LATAM will departure in summer 2021 will be taken a beating amid the dual
weather the storm. 25% lower than in summer 2020. pressures of the grounding and ❱

❱ the pandemic. In 2020 through

to end-October, customers had
logged some 450 Max cancella-
tions, while Boeing stripped from
its backlog another 600 Max that it
doubts will sell, owing to the finan-
cial condition of certain customers.
The changes have wiped 1,040
Max orders from Boeing’s books –
about one-quarter of its pre-2020
Max backlog.
More than 300 of the cancelled
orders came from lessors. Air
Lease has cut its Max orders by 28
this year, converting some to 787s,
publicly available figures show.
Boeing
But good news came on 18 No-
vember, when the US Federal Avi-
Air Lease has cut its Max orders by 28
ation Administration (FAA) lifted
the Max’s grounding. Airlines can
now resume flights after updating
jets and running pilots through He suspects 787s will continue recover,” he says. “Boeing needs
new training. selling well, as will A350-900s, but to… be ready to launch a plane
Boeing can also now resume says lack of demand for very large when things stabilise.”
deliveries, though at what pace ocean-crossing jets raises ques- He suspects airlines will still need
remains to be seen. Neither tions about types like the in-devel- a family of new jets fitting with-
Udvar-Hazy nor some industry opment 777X. in the middle-market segment
analysts suspect Boeing will pro- Udvar-Hazy views Boeing’s com- – where the A321XLR will sit and
duce the Max at anywhere close petitive position against Airbus as currently occupied by elderly 757s
to its pre-grounding rate of 53 having eroded in recent years. The and 767s.
jets monthly. At least not any time European airframer has scored big Udvar-Hazy suggests a jet with
soon; perhaps never. with its popular A321neo – particu- 170-250 seats might be ideal, slight-
larly with long-range variants of ly fewer than the 200-270 seats –
Chinese influence that jet that can operate transatlan- and 4,000-5,000nm range – Boe-
Udvar-Hazy suspects demand will tic routes. The A321XLR, scheduled ing was eyeing for its now-ditched
support monthly production of for service entry in 2023, will have New Mid-market Airplane (NMA).
25-30 Max for the next three to capacity for 244 passengers in a
four years, but adds that Boeing’s single-class layout, and 4,700nm Standing apart
rates will partly depend on Chinese (8,700km) range. Capacity aside, if Boeing expects
carriers, which could account for By comparison, Boeing’s largest to wrest back a market-leading po-
30% of the Max’s sales potential. Max – the 737 Max 10 – will carry sition, its next aircraft must stand
US-China trade and diplomat- up to 230 passengers and have apart from anything currently of-
ic relations have soured in the 3,300nm range. Smaller Max vari- fered by Airbus, Udvar-Hazy says.
past few years, raising uncertain- ants have additional range but can “If Boeing does anything, it has
ty about whether China’s airlines carry fewer passengers. to leapfrog Airbus. It can’t just be
will ultimately take delivery of “We definitely see the market status quo against the A321… it has
so many Max. Intertwined with share tilting in Airbus’s favour, but to be a superior plane.”
that uncertainty is the question we do see a future for the Max,” That could mean a jet with ex-
of how quickly, and under what Udvar-Hazy says. panded use of composite materi-
conditions, China’s regulator will Boeing’s next move remains un- als, or with engines incorporating
lift the Max’s grounding. Further certain. And the pandemic might advancements in hybrid-electric
complicating matters: China con- alter which specifications airlines technology. Electric “augmenta-
tinues developing and promoting will seek, Udvar-Hazy says. tion” could theoretically assist gas
a home-grown competitor, the “It’s kind of hard to define what turbines during certain phases of
Comac C919. “All eyes on China,” the right sizing is, because we don’t flight. But such a project won’t
Udvar-Hazy says. know how the global economy will come cheap: Udvar-Hazy pegs the
development cost at $10-15 billion.
Whether Boeing is up to job – or
will be any time soon – remains
“If Boeing does anything, it has an open question, considering its
financial position and significant
to leapfrog Airbus. It can’t just workforce cuts.
“My fear is that Boeing is dis-
be status quo against the A321… tracted and they have lost a lot
of their good career engineers,”
it has to be a superior plane.” Udvar-Hazy says. “They have been
bruised and battered so badly.” ◗

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Eviation Alice blaze

involved Li-ion cells
Incident early last year that destroyed
prototype electric aircraft in Arizona
took place after hours of engine testing
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa gation report from Prescott fire in-
spector Bret Lucas. “The cause of
the fire is undetermined.”
A
January blaze that dam- Eviation declines to comment
aged Eviation’s Alice on the fire or on the timeline for
prototype ignited af- Alice’s development.
ter hours of power- Owing to the nature of the test
plant testing, involved lithium-ion aircraft, the FAA did not investi-
batteries and forced the aircraft’s gate the incident. “While the inci-
three occupants to evacuate, dent was reported to the FAA, the
according to detail contained in aircraft in question was a non-cer-
fire incident reports. tificated prototype that was not in-
Before exiting the aircraft, the tended for flight,” the agency says.
team – which apparently included However, a separate FAA lith-
staff from flight certification com- ium-ion battery “event” report
pany AeroTEC and electric motor mentions the incident.
maker Magnix – noticed that Alice’s “A lithium battery used to power
battery box was hot. The battery an experimental aircraft exploded from a nearby station arrived on the
subsequently “exploded” accord- at Prescott airport,” it says. scene 6min later, a report shows.
ing to the US Federal Aviation Ad- “Owner asked if we could just
ministration (FAA). Rigorous testing protect the exterior of the fuse-
The specifics of the incident are In January, Eviation issued a short lage,” the report says.
included in fire reports received statement saying that the fire was The team “provided protection
by FlightGlobal from the Prescott, “believed to have been caused by to fuselage with master streams”
Arizona government. a ground-based battery system but also sprayed inside the
The 22 January 2020 blaze which was being utilised during “fuselage to cool the remainder of
occurred at Prescott Regional rigorous testing of its all-electric the batteries”.
airport, where Israel-based Evi- airplane”. “Upon arrival I observed a white
ation had been evaluating the The Prescott fire department three-engine airplane parked in
ground-test article. received the fire alarm at 18:29 local front of a closed door hanger,” says
Alice is an in-development, time on 22 January. Firefighters the fire inspector’s report. “I ob-
nine-passenger, all-electric business
and commuter aircraft. It has three
propellers powered by a 920kWh
lithium-ion battery pack, and prom-
ises a 440nm (815km) range and
220kt (407km/h) cruise speed.
“Small electric aircraft heavy
smoke,” a Prescott fire department
report says of the blaze. “Owner
stated that we would not be able to
extinguish due to the heavy Li-ion
battery load”. The fire originated in
the aircraft’s “operator/passenger
area”, the report says, but does not
specify a cause.
“Further examination of the air-
BillyPix
craft is needed, to be performed

by qualified individuals, in order
to determine the exact sequence Eviation brought prototype
of events through which the fire to 2019 Paris air show
started,” says a separate investi-

Investigation Eviation
BillyPix
First flight was previously
scheduled for 2020
served soot and burn marks on the

window and door areas.”
“A possible malfunction oc-
“A possible malfunction occurred
curred of the aircraft battery sys-
tem while the engines were being
of the aircraft battery system
tested, which resulted in the fire,”
the fire marshal said, according to
while the engines were being
the inspector.
tested, which resulted in the fire”
Test crew
Three people were aboard Alice Prescott fire department
when the fire started: pilot Steve
Crane, who sat in the captain’s seat,
engineer Andrew Blanchard, who port. “Johnson called out, ‘Smoke, Eviation named Magnix and
was beside Crane, and engineer smoke, smoke’, and then, ‘Get out, Siemens – now Rolls-Royce – as
Jonathan Johnson, who sat in a get out, get out.’” propulsion system providers, while
rear-facing seat behind Blanchard, Johnson pushed an “emergen- GKN, Honeywell and composite
the report says. cy stop button” and Crane put the specialist Multiplast are also in-
“They had been testing the two throttles in neutral. volved in the programme.
wing engines off and on since “All three then exited the plane Batteries are to be provided by
noon,” it says. “At about 17:40, via the port door,” the report says. South Korean firm Kokam. US air-
they started up the engines and Documents do not other- line Cape Air is the aircraft’s com-
continued to test them as they did wise identify the people in- mercial launch customer.
all day.” volved. But LinkedIn shows a Eviation intended for Alice to
At about 18:25, Johnson “no- Steven Crane as chief test pi- make a first flight in 2020, followed
ticed a slight temperature rise of lot at AeroTEC, and an Andrew by deliveries in 2022, but has said
one of the battery cells, but said Blanchard as flight-test engineer little since the fire. However, an
that it was still within normal operat that company; Washington October press release from a sup-
ating temperatures. state-based AeroTEC is a partner plier to the programme – Altitude
“He got out of his seat and went on the Alice project. Aerospace – gives 2021 as the date
to the battery box. He felt the The fire report also says a for the maiden sortie.
box, noticing it was getting hot, technician named Bryce Aberg Given the ambitious nature of the
then he turned back and noticed was at the scene. LinkedIn lists programme, obtaining certifica-
gray smoke coming from under Aberg as a power electrics engi- tion in such a short period of time
his seat,” says the inspector’s re- neer at Magnix. seems extremely challenging. ◗

Faster than sound

The first person to fly at supersonic speed, and a double
fighter ace, Chuck Yeager was ‘America’s greatest pilot’
A
viation pioneer Brigadier one after all. That alone is a fact of In a 1991 interview, Yeager dis-
General Charles ‘Chuck’ the greatest importance.” closed how he felt at the moment
Yeager passed away on Beneath a front-page head- when his X-1 was released.
7 December 2020 at the line “Faster than sound”, Flight’s “You don’t feel anything. You are
age of 97, almost three-quarters of 17 June 1948 edition noted: “Now too busy. You are going through
a century after claiming one of the that no less a person than Mr Sym- your checklist, loading the pres-
greatest firsts of the post-Second ington, American Secretary for Air, sure regulators, the dome and
World War era. has given confirmation of this per- checking all the instrumentation.
Announcing his death “with formance, we must hasten to ten- And that’s about the way of it.
profound sorrow”, Yeager’s wife, der our congratulations jointly to You listen to the B-29, he is haul-
Victoria, said his was “an incredi- Captain Charles E Yeager and the ing you up, and you start diving to
ble life well lived”. She describes Bell Aircraft Corporation.” pick up speed. You are heavy, and
him as “America’s greatest pilot, it’s a compact little airplane, and
and a legacy of strength, adven- you come out of a dark place into
ture, and patriotism will be re-
membered forever.”
Yeager’s status as an aviation
icon was assured in tight secrecy on
12.5
Number of combat victories flying
bright sunlight, and for a second
you’re kind of blinded.”
Breaking the sound barrier saw
Yeager win the Collier Trophy in
14 October 1947, when he became 1948. “This is an epochal achieve-
the first pilot to break the sound P-51 Mustang in Second World War ment in the history of world avia-
barrier. His Bell X-1 rocket plane, tion – the greatest since the first
nicknamed “Glamorous Glennis”, successful flight of the original
achieved a top speed of Mach 1.06, Clearly frustrated by the con- Wright Brothers’ airplane, forty-five
after being dropped from a Boeing tinued secrecy surrounding the years ago,” said the words accom-
B-29 bomber. event, our report speculated: panying the trophy.
However, his fame was not “Whether supersonic speed was Yeager’s route to the cockpit be-
instant, with the historic achieve- first achieved in conformity with gan after he enlisted as a mechan-
ment confirmed officially only in a long-term programme, whether ic in the US Army Air Force during
June 1948. it occurred by accident or whether the Second World War.
Referring to media reports which the pilot was suddenly overcome “There was no intention to be a
spread towards the end of 1947 by a desire to “give her the gun”, pilot, or anything like that. When I
speculating that a supersonic flight is not yet known, but, whatever the got in, in September of 1941, I was
had been made, Flight’s 29 Janu- circumstances, the achievement trained as a mechanic, which was
ary 1948 editorial noted: “These ranks as one of man’s most remark- easy. I had already had so much
were only rumours to start with, able technical accomplishments.” experience in mechanical things,
but when connected together with
apparently unconnected happen-
ings it became obvious that some-
thing remarkable had occurred. Yet
the secrecy ban still remains. In the
end, the technical press could bear
it no longer, and one aviation pa-
per came out with a definite but
unconfirmed statement.
“The air force… were obviously
upset by it, inasmuch as they are
said to have handed the whole
matter over to the Department
of Justice to see if any securi-
ty measures had been violated,”
our report continued. With such
a potential legal threat in mind, it
US Air Force
said: “Until the air force decide to

release details of what has actual-
ly happened, it is foolish to make
guesses… but if reports are true it An 89-year-old Yeager broke sound barrier
would seem that the sonic ‘barri- again in 2012, in the back seat of an F-15D
er’ wasn’t such an insurmountable

Obituary
US Air Force
Yeager’s supersonic flight in his Bell X-1
rocket plane was kept secret for months
like engines and things that dad with the USAF, including logging The Right Stuff, in which he made
exposed us to all the time, that 127 missions over South Vietnam, a cameo appearance as a barman.
I trained and began working on while based in the Philippines. He In 2002, Yeager enjoyed a back-
airplanes as crew chief. I serviced rose to the rank of Brigadier Gener- seat flight in a Boeing F-15 from
them, overhauled the engines, and al, before retiring from the military Edwards AFB in California – from
things like that.” in 1975, having flown 155 different where he had flown the X-1 to fame.
Subsequently, he spotted a no- aircraft types. Quoted in a Boeing Frontiers
tice on a bulletin board calling for He held a number of corporate publication report, he had solid
pilots and decided to apply. He and consulting roles, and contin- advice for any current or would-be
graduated from training in 1943. ued flying in a private capacity. His aviator: “It’s not being a good pilot
He was deployed to Europe, story was included in the 1983 film that keeps you alive. What keeps
flying the North American P-51 you alive is knowing your airplane. I
Mustang, and was shot down in always wanted to know more about
March 1944, before escaping cap- the airplane and its ejection seat
ture and rejoining the fight. In all, than the guys who made them.”
he scored 12.5 combat victories, A full decade later, the then
making him a double ace. His 89-year-old Yeager broke the
achievements including downing sound barrier for the last time in
five Messerschmitt Me-109s in a the back seat of an F-15D, flown
single day, and four Focke-Wulf from Nellis AFB, Nevada, 65 years
Fw 190s on another. to the day after his historic first.
Post-war, Yeager “aided in pi- Having enjoyed the ride, he noted:
oneering modern aircraft de- “The F-15 is my favourite airplane.
velopment during his nine-year That’s why I came here to fly it.”
assignment as an experimental Yeager was highly active on Twit-
test pilot by test-flying numerous ter in his latter years, sharing his
experimental, production, and for- experiences and engaging with
eign aircraft for the US Air Force those fascinated by his achieve-
[USAF],” the service says. “This ments and acquired knowledge, re-
included taking the X-1A to Mach maining an inspiration to the end. ◗
2.44 in straight and level flight on
12 December 1953.” Charles “Chuck” Yeager
He subsequently held a number 13 February 1923 – 7 December
of operational and flight-test roles 2020

Analysis Fleet forecast
Looking past the pandemic
SpaceKris/Shutterstock
Cirium’s Chris Seymour outlines the adjusted outlook for
an industry coming to terms with the impact of Covid-19
C
irium’s latest long-term assumes traffic will level off at 60- North American airlines follow
market forecast reflects the 70% lower than 2019 into the first with 20% and Europe with 16%. The
impact that the coronavirus part of 2021, before a slow recovery Middle East will account for 6% in
crisis is having on the indus- towards 2024 when pre-Covid traf- units, but the high number of twin-
try, but still foresees strong demand fic levels are achieved again. aisles represents 10% in value terms.
for airliners over the next 20 years. Beyond 2024, we therefore ex- Most of the global long-term mar-
Following 10 consecutive years of pect to return to more traditional ket will be covered by Airbus and
uninterrupted growth, the crisis has growth paths, but with that mod- Boeing, between them accounting
led to an huge reduction in global elling starting from the perhaps for over three-quarters of deliveries
traffic and heavy industry losses. structurally different industry we and 86% of dollars through 2039.
The 2020 Cirium Fleet Forecast may find at the end of the recovery. In the passenger market, sin-
predicts delivery of 43,315 new Deliveries should surpass the pre- gle-aisle jets will account for 67% of
airliners (including 1,010 factory vious peak (in 2018) during 2025 deliveries and 54%, or $1.5 trillion, of
freighters) worth $2.8 trillion over and the annual delivery value will value. The $1.1 trillion twin-aisle mar-
the next two decades. Passenger not recover to over $100 billion ket will see 7,000 aircraft delivered,
traffic, measured in revenue passen- again until 2024. It will then rise to predominantly Boeing 787s and
ger kilometres, is forecast to grow over $170 billion by the mid or late Airbus A350s. Twin-aisle supply will
at 3.3% per year and cargo traffic, 2030s. By then, we forecast annual remain the last duopoly in the com-
in freight tonne kilometres, at 3.6%. deliveries at around 2,600 aircraft. mercial sector until the turn of the
But our latest delivery forecast is decade, but China and Russia have
8% lower than last year’s. The retire- Supply and demand launched the 300-seat CR929 and
ment forecast has also been accel- For the foreseeable future, supply there are 800 deliveries forecast for
erated following the virus, with the of aircraft will substantially outstrip this or unspecified twin-aisles from
number of aircraft being removed demand. Just over half of all pas- existing and new programmes.
from service 33% higher in the near senger deliveries will be for replace- We forecast almost 6,900 deliv-
term than we predicted previously. ment during the 20 years, with a eries in the regional sector worth
The crisis in 2020 has driven higher level of 75% during the first $175 billion. Regional jets will ac-
worldwide airliner deliveries down five years, as the level of deliveries count for 60% of deliveries, but
by more than 50% against 2019; this has reduced and retirements in- among the 2,700 turboprops fore-
year’s total will also be the lowest in crease in the lower traffic environ- cast, a larger 90-plus-seater could
25 years. However, the aviation in- ment. We estimate that more than arrive from the 2030s.
dustry has proved resilient to previ- four-fifths (82%) of today’s global Freighter markets will continue
ous downturns and external shocks. fleet will be retired from passenger to see a 70% to 30% split between
Our traffic modelling uses a sce- service during the 20-year period, conversions and new deliveries,
nario approach for this year’s fore- with many coming in the early years with total demand for over 3,300
cast, specifically 2020-2024. This from the current surplus fleet. aircraft, including $115 billion for
Slightly fewer freighters will exit 1,010 new aircraft, plus 2,375 con-
Forecast deliveries the market (74%), due to their versions. The latter will be driven by
longer economic lives. Overall, there the growth of e-commerce, which
2020-2039 will be over 21,600 retirements. has been boosted during lock-
Turboprop 2,745 In terms of demand by region, downs. Some of the passenger air-
Regional jet 4,110
Asia will continue to set the pace. craft retired during the forecast will
China is forecast to have the high- transition to the freighter fleet after
Single-aisle 28,450
est 20-year annual passenger-traf- conversion. Overall, the freighter
Twin-aisle 7,000 fic growth rate, at over 6%. This fleet will grow at almost 2% annual-
Freighter (new) 1,010 will make it the largest single coun- ly to reach 4,100 aircraft by 2039. ◗
Total 43,315 try for deliveries with a 22% share,
ahead of all other Asia-Pacific coun- Chris Seymour is head of market
Source: 2020 Cirium Fleet Forecast
tries with a combined 21% share. analysis at Ascend by Cirium

Fl We
LI tGl ar
ig b
VE ob
h in
2021 forecast: What shape will : al
recovery take for aviation?

Thursday 14 January | 3pm GMT / 10am EST
To kick-off the new year, we will bring together foremost

aviation experts to debate what the twelve-months ahead
have in store for an industry that has been brought to its
knees. Is recovery on the way and, if so, when and who will
still be around to shape it?
To reserve your free place, go to: FlightGlobal.com/Webinar

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Opinion
Keeping
pilots in
the fight
Don’t expect future
Airbus Defence & Space

combat aircraft
projects to eject
human crew, says Next generation of strike assets will be
Douglas Barrie complemented by unmanned systems
T
he extent of the economic pler unmanned air vehicles fitted the geography of the Indo-Pacific a
impact of the Covid-19 pan- with air-to-surface munitions have potential requirements driver. Com-
demic, besides the tragic seen wider and ongoing adoption. bat radius will likely be of increased
and continuing loss of life, Autonomy, rather than increased importance and coupled with the
can only begin to become more automation, remains a challenging aim of carrying more weapons in-
clear during the course of 2021. goal, and technical, legal and ethical ternally, this means the platform will
Defence expenditure will, irre- issues all remain to be navigated, be no smaller, and possibly larger,
spective of the uptick in UK funding, successfully or otherwise. Uninhab- than the current generation.
not be exempt. Cancellations, cuts, ited systems in the near-to-medium One implication of this is that
and programme delays are all likely term will complement, rather than the USA’s next-generation fight-
to feature as countries attempt to replace crewed platforms. er programme may not produce a
absorb the economic damage. Air The worsening security environ- Lockheed Martin F-16- or F-35-style
forces will not escape the pressure, ment combined with the risk of peer platform easily accommodated also
but do not expect to see next-gen- or near-peer war is also reinforcing as an export product.
eration combat aircraft develop- interest in high-end air domain ca- Europe has its own challenges in
ments shelved willy-nilly as a result. pabilities. A war between post-in- this arena. A failure to adequately
There are at least eight tactical dustrial nations would involve kinet- consolidate the defence aerospace
combat aircraft projects under way ic and non-kinetic activity across all industry has left Europe pursuing
today: two in the USA, three in Eu- domains, with the ability to contest three – if Turkey is included – com-
rope and three in the Indo-Pacific and operate in the air (and in space) bat aircraft developments.
region. Irrespective of their stages fundamental to the outcome. France and the UK, despite the
of development, all are designed rhetoric of the 2010 Lancaster
around a cockpit, putting paid Sustaining superiority House defence co-operation agree-
to any notion that the era of the The capacity to ensure air superi- ment, remain unable to align de-
crewed combat aircraft is at an end. ority remains a tenet of the ‘West- fence-aerospace requirements and
Several factors continue to keep ern way’ of war. This, however, will industry. France is leading the New
the ejection seat and its occupant, likely not reflect the air supremacy Generation Fighter with Germany
or occupants, in the designs now or air dominance envisaged in the and Spain as partners, while the
being worked on. Air power re- past. Rather, it will be based on the UK is heading the Tempest project
mains dependent not only on tech- ability to sustain air superiority in with Italy and Sweden supporting.
nology and innovation, but also on a given space for a given period of Both are nested within wider Future
people. There is also a strand of time to prosecute a mission or to Combat Air System projects also
conservatism that when coupled act as an operational enabler. including adjunct uninhabited sys-
with the investment required runs The permissive air environments tems and weapons.
counter to risk taking: particularly of recent wars that have involved Whether current European multi-
if the project is at the core of an air the USA and its allies will, in a peer- national constructs are the same as
force’s future combat fleet. on-peer conflict, be replaced by those that may deliver the next gen-
More important in the crewed ver- high attrition rates. The gap in capa- eration is also open to question. But
sus uninhabited debate is that the bility between the USA and its com- what is not in doubt is that there will
pace of progress on the latter has petitors has narrowed – particular- be crew in the cockpit. ◗
been slower than many anticipat- ly in the case of China, viewed by
ed. There have been numerous false Washington as its ‘pacing threat’. Douglas Barrie is senior fellow
starts in the development and intro- The US Air Force and US Navy are for military aerospace at the
duction into service of high-end un- now looking at their next genera- London-based International Insti-
manned combat air vehicles. Sim- tion multi-role fighter needs, with tute for Strategic Studies.

To find our full coverage about these and other topics, visit FlightGlobal.com
FedEx Express received its first factory-built

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twinjet is due to get airborne in early 2021
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trainer produced for the Spanish air force

Highlights
United Aircraft
Power switch: Irkut tested MC-21 with Russian
PD-14 engines, moving from PW1400Gs
Virgin Australia
Boeing
Virgin Australia will return as ‘mid-market Boeing’s MQ-25 Stingray demonstrator flew
carrier’, following its sale to Bain Capital with an in-flight refuelling pod installed
Airbus Helicopters
Berlin signed for 31 NH90 Sea Tigers, to be

tasked with anti-submarine warfare duties

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Year ahead Forecasts
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Back on
course
It has been an annus horribilis for forecasters – including
FlightGlobal’s. The pandemic that swept the world in the first
quarter of 2020 and the ever-shifting legal restrictions on our
liberty to work, shop, socialise, and travel that have followed
have made predicting what might happen in aviation and
elsewhere the following week, let alone in 12 months, the
most inexact of sciences.
So it is in a spirit of humility – yet uplifted by the real
prospect of a Covid-19 vaccine becoming widely available
over the next few months – that our team turns its sights on
what 2021 might hold in store. None of us knows how the
fight against the most economically-damaging phenomenon
of most of our lifetimes will go. But we dare to believe that
the coming year will be better than the one just gone. Here
are our 2021 forecasts. ❱

2021
❱
Max crisis Consolidation
Boeing’s The long goodbye

Despite the sustained downturn,
way out very few airlines have actually

gone out of business. Could 2021
see a reckoning?
The airframer received a boost
Graham Dunn London
when its 737 Max was approved
to return to service. But it faces
O
ne of the most striking aspects of what is the
a huge task to recover from deepest and most sustained crisis ever to hit
commercial air transport is that it has resulted
Covid and a two-year grounding in relatively few airline collapses thus far.
The relatively small number of airline failures,
however, is not indicative of the health of the sector.
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa Quite the opposite. It reflects that the sheer scale of
the crisis means states have been forced to introduce
financial measures, either direct or indirect, to help
B
oeing’s troubles are far from solved, but the support airlines through the crisis.
events of 18 November 2020 at least cleared Virgin Australia in August shut down low-cost
a cloud that had been over the airframer for unit Tigerair Australia, citing insufficient demand to
20 months. support two players in the market – one in which
On that day, the US Federal Aviation Administration Jetstar also operates.
(FAA) lifted the 737 Max’s grounding, enabling airlines Where states have been reluctant or unable to step
to resume flights and Boeing to restart deliveries. in, formal restructuring processes have been launched
For that reason, 2021 starts with a rare (if narrow) in a bid to secure the necessary breathing space.
beam of optimism for the Chicago airframer, though Many other carriers are undertaking major
the company must still muddle through an industry restructuring programmes, but outside of formal
collapse that poses unprecedented challenges. creditor protection processes.
Several aerospace analysts have predicted that To some extent the crisis has put airlines, almost
Boeing will not announce any major commercial regardless of their pre-pandemic health, into stasis.
aircraft development projects in 2021, but will instead It will only be when the support measures are taken
focus on weathering the crisis.
Stephen Brashear/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Company has a significant inventory of 737s awaiting delivery

track record, or at least a return on investment of some

kind, will be a major consideration. Many airline brands,
despite their long history, do not have a profits record
to match.
Industry partners – notably aircraft lessors and
manufacturers – have also played their part in
supporting struggling airlines through the crisis. This
of course is in their own interest – they do, after all,
need airline customers at the other end of the crisis to
fly their assets.
But lessors and manufacturers are businesses. They
too will have to choose which airlines to back when a
Shutterstock
more normal business environment returns.
The stronger airlines have already been able to
tap private capital or financial markets to generate
additional liquidity through the crisis. That speaks to
Back soon? There has been interest in restarting the Flybe brand
the improved balance sheets and investment returns
parts of the industry have been able to deliver during
the good times – and this illustrates that some will
away and a new normal – whatever that may be – takes survive – potentially without the need for significant
hold that the health of airlines will become clear. state support.
In that respect, counterintuitively, it may only be Others are likely to benefit too from circumstance:
when the outlook gets better for air travel that more those with access to strong domestic sectors to fall
airlines begin to fail. back on or which operate in markets where there is
The likely slow pace of recovery means an better control of the pandemic or greater state desire
environment of fewer passengers to go round. Some to support a recovery of air traffic.
airlines may have done enough to see out the crisis But when the plug on state support is pulled – and
in semi-hibernation. Other hunters may even prosper panic does set in – things can happen quickly. In
picking off opportunities. But many will not survive Europe, after the financial crisis a decade ago, Malev
without further life support. and Spanair collapsed within a week of each other. The
carriers had 90 years of flying between them, albeit
No choice? with limited profitability.
Governments over the years have shown a reluctance It is inevitable more established airline brands will be
to switch off airline life support. But this is a crisis like lost as a result of the crisis. How many and how long it
no other. In the past decisions to prop up sick airlines takes is another question altogether. Many brands may
have often been taken in isolation – a choice between survive on a smaller scale – or as part of wider groups,
intervention or the political fallout of allowing a flag depending on the appetite or ability of the stronger
carrier and major employer to collapse. carriers to become acquirers.
In the post-pandemic climate, states may simply not But history suggests it takes a lot for an airline brand
have the resources to fund continued airline bailouts to disappear altogether. And as recent interest in a
– or may find they have a stark choice as to which of reboot of Flybe shows, or continued efforts to revive
their industries to save. In these cases, a profitable Jet Airways, even some lost brands may yet return. ◗
30%
But getting those jets into customers’ hands may be
no easy task because, at the present time, airlines have
little need for more capacity.
“It’s going to take creative thinking by Boeing in
2021 to work with customers”, to convince airlines to
swap out 15- to 20-year-old 737NGs with new Max,
Merluzeau says.
Likely proportion of Max aircraft that
could be bought by Chinese carriers Chinese question
And while FAA certification is a critical milestone,
Boeing in 2021 will also probably be working to
“What I really want to see in 2021 is solid convince other countries’ regulators to clear the jet.
management of the [deliveries] of the Max”, and While agencies in Canada, Brazil and Europe are
“some level of stabilisation with the 787”, says Michel expected to lift the Max’s grounding relatively quickly,
Merluzeau, aerospace analyst with consultancy AIR. analysts have little clarity on when China’s civil
Among Boeing’s primary 2021 tasks is finding a way aerospace regulator will do so.
to deliver hundreds of already-produced 737 Max. The Analysts suspect China’s clearance may be entangled
company holds a stockpile of about 450 of those jets, within the US-China trade war and China’s interest in
and has said it intends to deliver about half of them promoting its home-grown, in-development Comac
within one year of the grounding being lifted. C919 jet.
“That’s what is going to bring some level of liquidity “The re-certification in China remains a question and
back into the company,” Merluzeau says. has been caught up in broader political discussions,” ❱

2021
❱ says an 18 November report from financial services US air transport

company Canaccord Genuity. The report adds that,
political forces aside, Chinese carriers are probably
eager to resume Max flights, owing to the relative
Thinking
strength of the Chinese air travel market.
Uncertainty about the Chinese market creates
significant risk for Boeing, as Chinese carriers could
account for some 30% of potential Max deliveries,
Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of aircraft
differently
lessor Air Lease, tells FlightGlobal.
“[A] big question mark is China, which basically
stopped importing 737s,” he says.
In 2021, Boeing also intends to continue
restructuring its operation to reflect the current
aerospace environment.
By the end of 2021, Boeing expects to have about Airlines will continue to adapt
130,000 staffers – about 19% fewer than it had at
the end of 2019, chief executive David Calhoun told their business models to cope
employees on 28 October.
with the changes of a market
New normal emerging from Covid-19
Departing employees have included mid-level
managers and vice-presidents in Boeing’s commercial
aircraft division. Pilar Wolfsteller Las Vegas
The company is also slashing its real-estate footprint
by up to about 30%, it has said.
U
Also in 2021, Boeing intends to cease production nited Airlines turned heads in the late summer
of 787s in Everett, consolidating that work at its when it began planning numerous direct
manufacturing site in North Charleston, South Carolina. routes between northern US cities and sun
Commercial aircraft production rates are also destinations in Florida such as Orlando, Tampa,
coming down. Boeing anticipates reducing output Fort Myers and Fort Lauderdale.
to six 787s and two 777s monthly in 2021, down Coming from a legacy carrier that had for years
from pre-pandemic rates of 14 and five, respectively. found its fortunes in the more-traditional hub-and-
Boeing has not specified how many Max it expects to spoke network, the move suggested to the market
produce in 2021. that the Chicago-based industry behemoth anticipates
Some analysts think Boeing’s ultimate output may be it will be quite some time until the industry finds its
less than it has publicly projected. “new normal” following what will soon be a year-long
“My primary area of concern is not necessarily the coronavirus crisis.
Max, it’s the 787,” Merluzeau says. The carrier launched the new flights – which
originate in Boston, Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis,
Milwaukee, New York and Pittsburgh – in November
50
and December, and will operate them through the
traditional US spring break period, which ends in April.
This partial departure from a traditional operating
model in the coming cold-weather months, and
possibly beyond, signals that US mainline carriers
are trying new strategies to remain relevant and
competitive, and to make up for lost business travel
Examples of the 787 widebody type revenue. They may be doing so for quite some time.
that are yet to be delivered “Carriers are out there trying to come up with other
ways of generating revenue,” says Stephen Trent,
Citigroup’s director of research for airlines in the
He cites particularly soft widebody demand and the Americas. “Point-to-point activity is consistent with
likelihood that 787s may hit the second-hand market that pivot, which, I imagine, could persist until we see
if the pandemic causes more airline failures. a fairly meaningful pick-up in business travel and in
In addition to the 450 737 Max in its inventory, international long-haul travel.”
Boeing is sitting on 50 undelivered 787s, Cirium Don’t start looking for that until the second half
fleets data shows. The company has acknowledged of 2021, he adds.
a slowdown in 787 deliveries owing to the pandemic The new flights are designed to attract more
and to required inspections stemming from an airframe potential winter-weary holidaymakers away from
issue disclosed in 2020. no-frills vacation specialists such as Spirit Airlines,
Delivering five 787s monthly would be a “best-case Allegiant Air and Frontier Airlines.
scenario” for Boeing, Merluzeau says. They promise more comfort and eliminate the
He suspects Boeing will actually manufacture closer need to change aircraft in busy hub airports – a
to 50 787s in 2021 (about four monthly) and, on the factor airlines hope coronavirus-cautious customers
more optimistic side, as many as 130 737s (about 11 will find more attractive and less risky. It is part
per month). ◗

Pilar Wolfsteller/FlightGlobal
Travel restrictions and quarantine rules are keeping people away
of a “proactive and demand-driven approach to offer longest peaceful border in the world, between Canada
more opportunities” for customers to get away from and the USA, remains closed for non-essential travel.
the damp, dark winter, United said at the time. Vacation spots such as Mexico and Florida are mostly
United is not the only US legacy carrier searching open, but public health officials worldwide continue
for business and revenue between the proverbial sofa to encourage people to stay at home in order to
cushions. In July, Fort Worth-based American Airlines mitigate the spread of the virus. Popular attractions
announced a “strategic partnership” with JetBlue such as amusement parks either remain shuttered
Airways, headquartered in New York, under which or have closed again in the wake of a third infection
they propose to operate codeshare flights and offer wave. Sports and cultural events have been curtailed
reciprocal frequent-flier benefits. or cancelled entirely. This makes planning a trip even
The agreement focuses on flights in the northeast more difficult as long as the pandemic rages on.
USA, particularly from Boston and New York. “The lights at the end of the tunnel may be getting
more numerous, but also more distant,” writes Mike
Boyd, president of Boyd Group International. “We have
The lights at the end an airline industry that simply has not yet adjusted to
the economic damage done.” With airlines currently
of the tunnel may be possessing about 30% more aircraft than they actually
need, they are in “survival mode”, he adds.
getting more numerous, By the end of the second quarter of 2021, he says,
the air transport system will be “very different and a lot
but also more distant smaller than was projected just nine months ago”.
But strategies such as adding direct routes and
bringing modern, more-efficient aircraft – including the
Mike Boyd President, Boyd Group International newly re-certificated Boeing 737 Max – back into fleets,
will help increase efficiency as the industry gets used
to a more challenging money-making environment.
The codeshares bring 60 new American routes Airline industry observers agree that the availability
into JetBlue’s network and 130 JetBlue routes into of an effective and safe vaccine will be the kick-start
American’s operation, and allow customers to book the industry needs.
those flights via either airline. Even so, it will likely take the more-lucrative corporate
Alaska Airlines said in 2020 that it planned to join travel segment another six to 12 months to return.
American’s Oneworld alliance as a full member by mid- Companies will need to re-think their travel policies,
2021, allowing American to connect flights through the reconsider risks to employees, and reallocate budget.
Seattle-based carrier’s West Coast network. “It could be the second half of 2021 until international
“Even if the airlines are not directly offering [point- long-haul and business travel start to spool up again in
to-point routes], they are indirectly going that way in any meaningful way,” Trent says.
trying to use other airlines’ metal,” Trent says. And any 2021 year-on-year comparisons will look like
But uncertainties about the coronavirus and its progress. Capacity and demand in the coming months
impact on the passenger air travel industry remain. will surely be above those in the early part of 2020, but
Potential guests still face a patchwork of ever- that’s where the positive news ends.
changing travel restrictions, both abroad and within “Going from 300 feet underwater to 100 feet
the USA. Numerous regions have re-imposed underwater is a nice metric,” Boyd says. “But you’re
quarantine requirements as case counts rise, and the still underwater.” ◗

2021
❱ Delays to the WTO’s consideration of the European

Tariff dispute
case meant its judgement and clearance to impose
penalties on imported US aircraft more or less
coincided with Trump’s defeat to Joe Biden in the
Subsidy
presidential election.
Biden might be less impulsive, but no-one should
expect much concession from his administration.
Neither Ron Kirk nor Michael Froman, who each
served as US trade representative under Obama,
slugging
adopted less than a bellicose stance on the matter.
Kirk had spoken of there being “simply no justification”
for Airbus subsidies, while Froman had previously
stated that the US side would “not tolerate” its rival’s
“ignoring the rules”.
But whomever Biden selects to succeed Trump’s
Will the WTO judgement, a pick Robert Lighthizer, they will face a different
scenario from previous trade representatives, one
Biden administration and Brexit which will demand a willingness to negotiate if the two
sides are to avoid a drawn-out arms race of tariffs and
mean a new approach to the counter-tariffs and establish a mutually-acceptable
latest transatlantic tariff regime framework for fair competition.
While the US side, with the upper hand, is unlikely to
on commercial aircraft? brush away a 16-year fight – which it started – simply to
David Kaminski-Morrow London
S
ixteen years after Boeing made its opening
play in a transatlantic duel with Airbus over civil
aircraft subsidies, the conflict has descended
from legal sniping to a tiresome war of
attrition, with each side underlining its claims of unfair
government support while inflicting damaging tariffs
on hundreds of exported products – commercial jets
Shutterstock
the most high-profile.
Neither side landed a knock-out but the US
government arguably emerged as the victor, by
means of a points decision, having ultimately been
Boeing has emerged a narrow
granted authorisation by the World Trade Organization
winner at the WTO… on points
(WTO), in October 2019, to impose $7.5 billion of
countermeasures, against the European Commission’s
award, a year later, of nearly $4 billion.
Both combatants have opted to put a 15% additional demonstrate moderation after four years of turbulence,
duty on one another’s airliners. European authorities the fact that both rivals have been prepared to
are almost certain to follow in lock-step any further US address the main points of contention, rescinding tax
tariff hike – but with their primary commercial aircraft breaks and relinquishing launch aid, suggests such an
manufacturers already under considerable economic agreement is within reach.
pressure, a negotiated settlement would seem to be all Boeing backlog data indicates there are nearly 440
but inevitable. unfilled orders from EU customers, excluding those
When the dispute was initiated in 2004, US president in the UK, while similar Airbus data points to more
George W Bush was in power. But it persisted through than double this figure, some 920 jets, set for delivery
the Democrat administration of Barack Obama and to US operators. Each side’s total includes about 80
outlasted the Republican term of Donald Trump – on twin-aisle aircraft.
whose watch the case turned from a legal argument The UK will no longer be dealing with the US
into one with financial consequences. government as part of the EU trading bloc and, in a
demonstration of its go-it-alone approach, is set to
waive tariffs on Boeing aircraft directly acquired by UK
920
carriers. But as an indispensable part of Airbus it will
still be affected by the dispute if Airbus sales suffer.
With airliner production reduced, the air transport
system still mired in crisis, the long-haul market weak,
and the suspension on the Boeing 737 Max only just
lifted, Airbus would probably have little to lose by
waiting for the Biden administration to settle into the
Unfilled orders for Airbus jets negotiating seat – although the same might not be true
set for delivery to US customers for other industries affected by the dispute. ◗

Comac
Six C919 prototypes are already flying
Asia programmes to three years for certification and delivery. This meant
that the narrowbody was likely to enter service in 2021
at the earliest, instead of 2020.
However, a looming sanction war between China
Year of the C919 and the USA could threaten to derail progress on the
narrowbody programme. The tit-for-tat came about
after the USA approved billions of dollars in potential
arms sales to Taiwan, which China regards as its own,
Having secured relative success but is also part of a long-brewing trade war between
the two superpowers.
in the domestic market for its The C919 uses Leap-1C engines made by CFM
International, a joint venture between the USA’s GE
ARJ21 regional jet, Chinese Aviation and France’s Safran. Its communication
airframer Comac will now turn its and navigation system, meanwhile, is made via a
joint venture between China Electronics Technology
attention to its narrowbody Avionics Company and Raytheon Technologies’
subsidiary Collins Aerospace. Aviage Systems, which
Alfred Chua Singapore produces the C919’s avionics, is a joint venture
between General Electric and AVIC.
D
espite the industry-wide upheaval caused by Tough sanctions?
the coronavirus pandemic, Chinese airframer A US-China aerospace breakup — where China blocks
Comac broke new ground in 2020. US-made passenger aircraft and related aerospace
It scored new orders from Chinese components from being sold in China — could cripple
carriers, and delivered its ARJ21 regional aircraft the C919 programme, creating what observers say
to the country’s three largest carriers — Air China, would be a nightmare scenario.
China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines. Indeed, much as 2021 could see Comac break
But if 2020 was the year of the ARJ21, then 2021 new ground, a new year with tough sanctions on
could be the year of the C919 narrowbody programme. US aerospace products could also break Comac,
Fresh off a high in 2020, Comac will have big effectively clipping the wings of its C919 programme
expectations for the C919 programme, which it for a few more foreseeable years.
hopes will compete with the Boeing 737 and the Still, Comac can take comfort in the fact that it is still
Airbus A320 family. Already, the full test fleet of six in a cushy position, at least compared with its peers.
prototypes are up and flying, and, as at the end of Mitsubishi Aircraft, its rival airframer from Japan, will
November, the Chinese airframer received the type enter 2021 with its flagship SpaceJet regional aircraft
inspection authorisation for the programme, paving in an effective programme freeze. Even if economic
the way for final flight testing and certification. conditions start to improve in 2021, it seems unlikely
that Mitsubishi will restart the programme — at least
Time to deliver not immediately.
Comac is also looking to get the C919 certified and The company said in late October: “We will work
delivered to launch customer China Eastern in 2021, to review where we stand, make improvements, and
in what is the clearest indication of timelines since it assess a possible programme restart.”
quietly acknowledged a shift in dates in 2019. If 2020 was the year Asian airframers trod diverging
FlightGlobal reported in 2019 that the C919 timeline paths, 2021 will continue to see a different trajectory
had been shifted to the right, as Comac needed two for Chinese and Japanese airframers. ◗

2021
❱
US defence budget Europe air transport
Slidin' with Spring of hope

Can low-cost carriers lead the
Biden? region out of the crisis in the

next few months? They have
before – and might again
The DoD enjoyed largesse under
Lewis Harper London
Donald Trump. What will US
air defence spending priorities
T
here has been a marked shift in the European
be under the new president? airline industry’s mood since a flurry of good
news on the development of Covid-19 vaccines.
Previously, there were only tentative hopes
Garrett Reim Los Angeles that spring 2021 would bring a degree of relief from
what will be a bleak winter for Europe’s operators.
But the possibility that vaccines might begin to
A
fter several fat years under the administration have a genuine impact on controlling the pandemic
of President Donald Trump, the US in Europe by the end of the first quarter of 2021 has
Department of Defense (DoD) budget is changed the narrative.
likely to be trimmed down under President “There’s reasonable optimism now that summer 2021
Joe Biden. However, the difference between the two will get back to some degree of normality,” the group
administrations is not likely to be huge. chief executive of Ryanair, Michael O’Leary, said at an
That’s because the US military’s role in geopolitics industry conference just after the first positive news
– a deterrent to aggression from the illiberal forces on vaccine efficacy was announced. “We may not get
of the world, such as China, Russia, North Korea and back all the way to 2019, but in short haul I see no
Iran – will more or less be the same with the Biden reason why we won’t go back to 75-80% of 2019.”
administration, says Mark Cancian, a senior adviser Wizz Air chief executive Jozsef Varadi said in mid-
with the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ November that the low-cost carrier is aiming to be
International Security Program. back at 100% capacity “within a few months”.
“They will push for a strategy that looks a lot like With international air travel forecast to be at around
the end of the Obama administration,” he says. “And, only 25% of 2019 levels globally during summer 2021
frankly, it looks a lot like the Trump administration; season, according to IATA, such figures would put both
that is, focused on China and Russia, with secondary carriers well ahead of the crowd.
focuses on North Korea, Iran and terrorism.”
Shutterstock
Tough talking: the US military’s role in geopolitics will not change

crisis, rather than focusing on retirements and storage,

thereby maintaining the flexibility to add capacity
quickly when demand allows.
That flexibility is boosted in Ryanair’s case by union
agreements that have seen it avoid mass layoffs.
Conversely, Wizz did make some job cuts early on
in the crisis, but its record of not recognising unions
means – rightly or wrongly – it can flex its workforce at
short notice.
Furthermore, their lack of national affiliation in
Europe’s liberalised aviation market means both airlines
are able to shift capacity around as demand dictates –
Shutterstock
demonstrated by Wizz opening a string of bases in the
region in mid-2020 as most carriers were retrenching.
In some cases, that positions them to move into
Ryanair and Wizz jets parked markets vacated by rivals. “Some of our competitors
at Wroclaw airport in June 2020 are contracting in a big way and leaving a market
vacuum behind them – of course, we make sure that
we take advantage of that,” Varadi said in October.
Indeed, the region’s network carriers, for example, But it is also important to note that taking advantage
are adjusting to life with smaller fleets, larger debts of pent-up demand in 2021 will not be an issue of
and, in some cases, cautious government shareholders, business model alone.
who may need to be tapped for more support in 2021. In the European low-cost sphere, Norwegian is
Crucially, network carriers are also looking to 2021 teetering on the edge of the abyss, having entered an
with very little prospect of a significant boom in Irish process in mid-November that gives it financial
long-haul travel. protection while it attempts to restructure.
In Europe’s short-haul markets the outlook is very EasyJet has been much quieter than Ryanair and
different – not least because it is likely to offer a Wizz on its expectations for 2021, while taking a more
straightforward way for frustrated leisure passengers cautious approach to adding back capacity.
to scratch the air-travel itch. The mini-revival in such At the same time, success might be measured on
traffic during the July-August window provided a different terms for the network carriers. A race to
glimpse of that pent-up demand. secure the first ticket sales during the recovery is really
This likely trend was described by IATA chief just a sprint during the marathon recovery ahead.
economist Brian Pearce ahead of the association’s In terms of short-term prospects, however, the
November AGM: “Undoubtedly in this initial [recovery] market dichotomy was perhaps best summarised
environment, with price-sensitive leisure travellers and by Ryanair mainline chief executive Eddie Wilson: “If
those opportunities for carriers with very low costs you’ve got the money, you’ve got the aircraft, you’ve
that can fly cash-positive flights at a smaller load, will got the people, you’ve got the space at the airports,
clearly favour the ultra-low-cost airlines and a number then you are in a much better position than those
[are already] stepping in.” [airlines] that are scrambling around, that are running
Ryanair and Wizz certainly appear to have the right out of cash, have to raise their money, looking for
ingredients in that regard. Both have emphasised the short-term deals all the time, selling their aircraft, firing
importance of keeping aircraft in the air during the their people.” ◗
$30bn
party fared poorly in the 2020 elections. With the
Republican party likely to remain in control of the US
Senate, large defence cuts look even more unlikely.
That’s not to say there won’t be some trimming.
The Democratic party won the majority of seats in
the House of Representatives and won the White
House. That gives Biden the leverage to carry out
Possible cut to the US military budget by the end some downsizing.
of the Biden administration’s first four-year term Cancian says he believes at the end of the Biden
administration’s first four-year term the budget
might be down by around $30 billion, or roughly
That strategy requires a massive global force. “If 5% of its current level. The Trump administration
you want to have a presence in the western Pacific, requested about $586 billion in funds for the DoD and
if you want to challenge Russia in Eastern Europe, Department of Energy for fiscal year 2020. The White
and if you want to keep going after global terrorism House requested another $164 billion for Overseas
– for all of that, you have to have large forces, Contingency Operations.
they have to be forward-deployed, and all that Because the Pentagon is already operating in
is expensive,” says Cancian. FY2021, cuts probably wouldn’t come until FY2022 and
Moreover, Biden waved off the idea of large cuts FY2023, says Cancian. When spending cuts start to roll
to the US military in a September Stars and Stripes out, they are likely to affect the size of each military
interview, and the progressive wing of the Democratic branch, with the US Army to be hit hardest. ❱

2021
❱ “A lot of strategists are looking to cut the army in

general,” says Cancian. “If the priority is China and
Russia – particularly China – the army has an important
role, but clearly a lesser role compared with the navy
and the air force.”
That likely means fewer soldiers, but also US Army
aviation programmes such as Future Vertical Lift will
be delayed. Instead, US Army priorities are to be long-
range precision strike and air defence, says Cancian.
Recently, the US Army has been making the case
that new automated flight controls should allow its
Future Vertical Lift aircraft to avoid detection by hiding
in the radar shadows of mountains and hills – a stealthy
ability it plans to use for suppression of enemy air
defence missions.
Time to retire
That might work amid the hills and valleys of Eastern
Europe against Russia, but in a hypothetical fight
against China in the wide-open Western Pacific it
doesn’t make as much sense. “Nap-of-the-earth
doesn’t really help you very much [in the open ocean],”
says Cancian. “And, the distances are too long.” Systems MQ-9 unmanned air vehicle (UAV) from
Moreover, Cold War-era aircraft within all branches its budget, Congress appears poised to add it back
are likely to be targeted for early retirement. Even into its spending plans. Unless the USAF has already
updated versions of those aircraft, such as the Boeing developed a secret replacement for many of the
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-15EX, are likely to be in MQ-9’s armed reconnaissance missions, it is unlikely
the line of fire, says Cancian. to disappear soon, says Cancian.
Some older aircraft may survive simply because Moreover, Special Operations Command’s Armed
there is no way to replace them quickly. For example, Overwatch experiment, which aims to use light attack
despite the US Air Force’s (USAF’s) plans to eliminate aircraft such as the Textron Aviation Beechcraft AT-6
production of the General Atomics Aeronautical Wolverine and Sierra Nevada/Embraer A-29 Super
and support aircraft programmes. Arguably the

Asia defence biggest news came in October, when footage emerged
of a Xian H-6N bomber carrying a long-rumoured
ballistic missile along its centreline.
Searching for Details about Chinese programmes are notoriously

difficult to come by, fuelled mainly by dubious images
and cryptic remarks that emerge in China’s tightly-
China’s cracks controlled social media space. Official channels, such

as China’s nationalistic Global Times newspaper, often
post reports about Chinese military aviation, but their
credibility is open to question. Beijing holds its cards
Details of its military aviation close to its chest.
Nonetheless, observers will be looking for several
programmes are hard to source, things in 2021. Engines, the perennial bugbear of
Chinese aircraft, will be one focus.
but Beijing watchers will be
looking for certain signals about Local power
China’s premier fighter, the Chengdu J-20, is flying with
capabilities and ambitions a local engine, the Shenyang WS-10 Taihang – early
versions used Russian Saturn AL-31s. In November
2020, images emerged of J-20s powered with an
Greg Waldron Singapore updated version of the WS-10, the WS-10C.
The J-20’s ultimate powerplant, however, is the
Xian Aero Engine WS-15 Emei. Estimates suggest that
T
he development of Chinese airpower will the WS-15’s maximum thrust will be 18.4t (180kN),
continue to be a major defence theme in 2021, potentially giving the twin-engined J-20 genuine “fifth
as observers look for enhancements of existing generation” performance, including supercruise – the
types and the possible emergence of a new ability to travel at supersonic speeds without engaging
stealth bomber. the afterburners. There are also persistent rumours
2020 proved to be another exciting year for Chinese about a two-seat version of the J-20.
military aviation, with advances seen in key combat In late 2020 rumours emerged that the Y-20

convince the services or Congress to cut back

substantially on the F-35,” says Cancian. “They might
keep it capped at 40 [units] a year for the air force.”
Other winners are likely to be long-range strike
weapons such as hypersonic missiles, and bombers like
the Boeing B-52 and Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider.
The range of those systems would allow the USAF to
reach across the Pacific Ocean to targets within China.
Going ballistic?
One long-range weapon system that might be subject
to delays is the USAF’s Ground Based Strategic
Deterrent (GBSD), a replacement for the ageing
LGM-30 Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic
missile system. Democrats have voiced opposition to
US Air Force
modernising the USA’s nuclear arsenal.
However, eliminating a leg of the country’s triad
strategy – the ability to launch nuclear weapons
The F-35 programme might slow down slightly under Biden from ground missile silos, submarines or aircraft –
is unlikely. Cancian says instead Biden and House
Democrats might slow-fund the GBSD, rather than
outright eliminate it.
Tucano to carry out close air support missions may Ultimately, coming defence budgets will increasingly
be viewed favourably as a cost-saving measure that focus on unmanned systems, says Cancian. That might
also preserves flight time on the Lockheed Martin spark a debate on the nature of the Next Generation Air
F-35’s airframe. Dominance (NGAD) programme, the USAF’s eventual
“[The USAF] recognises that every sortie flown by an replacement for the Lockheed F-22 Raptor. The service
F-35 against insurgents is that many flight hours that has described NGAD as manned. However, there will
they have lost on the F-35 [airframe],” says Cancian. likely be those that see UAVs as the future of aerial
“These things do not have infinite lifespans.” combat and push for it to be unmanned, in order to save
When it comes to production of the F-35, cutbacks costs, increase its capabilities and have an aircraft that
are unlikely to be deep. “They are not going to could be more expendable in combat, says Cancian. ◗
2021 might offer more clarity around China’s other

stealth fighter, the AVIC FC-31. Testing has continued
with the type, an updated version of the J-31 that
appeared in 2014’s Zhuhai air show. It is understood
that the PLAAF is not interested in the FC-31, but that
the People’s Liberation Army Navy may want it as a
Chinese social media
new carrier-borne fighter to replace its problematic

Shenyang J-15.
Strategic capability
One potentially big story for 2021 relates to China’s
An October 2020 video appears to show an developmental stealth bomber, the H-20. It is
H-6N carrying an air-launched ballistic missile understood that the H-20 will resemble the Northrop
Grumman B-2, and provide Beijing with a true strategic
bomber capability. Pictures of the new type are greatly
anticipated, although some observers believe that
strategic transport, heretofore powered by Soloviev China might have difficulty incorporating a sufficiently
D-30KP-2s, had operated a maiden flight with the new powerful powerplant.
Shenyang WS-20, a more efficient engine featuring a As China’s most numerous bomber, the H-6 will
higher bypass ratio. Should a WS-20-powered Y-20 continue to be a source of major interest, particularly
break cover in 2021, it will mark a milestone both for its most advanced variant, the H-6N. In addition to the
the programme and for China’s broader engine efforts. H-6N’s ability carry a ballistic missile, it is also believed
Moreover, the coming year could bring more capable of carrying an unmanned air vehicle (UAV).
information about the Y-20’s other role as an air-to-air Finally, UAVs will continue to be a major focus.
refuelling tanker. With just a handful of older H-6s and China has developed UAVs for a broad range of
a trio of Ilyushin Il-78s earmarked as tankers, air-to-air missions, from reconnaissance to cargo carriage. Like
refuelling is a weak area for the People’s Liberation the west, is it is also looking at the future of air combat,
Army Air Force (PLAAF), particularly as it looks to developing unmanned combat air vehicles such as the
project power further from China’s shores. A high Dark Sword and Sharp Sword. Tantalising hints about
capacity, indigenous tanker in the form of the Y-20 both programmes might – or might not – emerge
would go some way to rectifying this weakness. during 2021. ◗

BAE Systems 2021
Tempest partners include BAE Systems,

Leonardo UK, MBDA UK and Rolls-Royce
❱ Paris, Berlin and Madrid are participating in an FCAS

Europe defence
programme including the design of a New Generation
Fighter, with Dassault and Airbus Defence & Space at
Out of
the forefront.
After formally launching the project at the Paris air
show in June 2019, France and Germany in February
2020 started an 18-month Phase 1A risk-reduction
activity. This should be followed from around 2026
formation
by the first flights involving demonstrator platforms.
The aim is for the initiative to deliver an operational
successor for the nations’ Eurofighter and Dassault
Rafale fleets from 2040.
Other major participants include propulsion system
partners MTU and Safran, avionics and sensor
specialists Hensoldt and Thales, and Spain’s Indra.
The two European groups
Tempest outline
working on separate proposals “Despite corona[virus], FCAS is on time and we are
for the next generation of fighter making good progress in Demo [Phase] 1A and JCS
[the Joint Concept Study],” Airbus Defence & Space
aircraft are not likely to be chief executive Dirk Hoke said during a Paris Air
Forum online conference session on 20 November.
joining forces any time soon Meanwhile, the UK’s Team Tempest industry group –
comprising BAE Systems, Leonardo UK, MBDA UK and
Rolls-Royce – has delivered the contents of its outline
Craig Hoyle London business case proposal to the UK Ministry of Defence.
This caps their work performed since the Tempest
O
activity and a full-scale mock-up of a future manned
ne certainty for 2021 is that Europe’s fighter was revealed at the Farnborough air show in
parallel efforts to develop the region’s July 2018.
next-generation Future Combat Air System In an encouraging sign, the UK government on
(FCAS) will not see a convergence. 19 November announced a £24.1 billion ($32.1 billion)
Indeed, the rival activities – which respectively uplift in defence spending for the next four years.
involve the defence ministries and industrial Representing an overall 0.5% budget increase for the
champions of France, Germany and Spain; and Italy, sector, the sum includes a £1.5 billion allocation for
Sweden and the UK – will make significant progress research and development on projects including FCAS,
along their separate tracks. artificial intelligence and cyber technologies.

Exhibitions begun moving shows scheduled for the first half of

2021, with AIX shifting to September and Australia’s
Avalon now taking place at the end of the year,
rather than February. The EBACE business aviation
Shows on the road convention in May also looks vulnerable and GIFAS,
the French trade association behind the world’s
biggest air show, announced that Paris was being
cancelled outright, with the next iteration not taking
The industry expo was replaced place until June 2023.
in 2020 by the virtual convention. Virtual reality?

A very 2020 phenomenon emerged – the virtual air
It will now likely be the second show or convention. Farnborough and the National
half of 2021 before the calendar Business Aviation Association were among those in the
aerospace sector to pioneer digital events comprising
as we knew it resumes webinars and opportunities to visit “exhibitors”. For
many professionals largely confined to home offices
and unable to travel, they proved a welcome diversion.
Murdo Morrison London Few would suggest, however, that they are anything
but a poor substitute for the real thing. Even high-tech
companies such as Apple prefer the drama and buzz
I
f you think aviation had a rough 2020, consider of launching products at face-to-face events.
the conference and exhibitions industry. A sector Whether we spend most of 2021 continuing
based entirely on face-to-face gatherings and social to network with our peers over Zoom, or return
networking was shuttered in March around the world to shaking hands in a meeting room and looking
and, with rare exceptions, remained so for the rest of customers in the eye, “kicking the tyres” of new
the year. From the beleaguered exhibition organisers technology on the exhibition floor, and relaxing with
themselves to the ranks of workers who transport, industry colleagues over a beer or coffee hangs on
construct and disassemble these instant communities, the availability and effectiveness of vaccines, aided by
and the hotels and restaurants that depend on the onset of rapid testing.
travelling, free-spending delegates, the effect on jobs Few in a global industry relish the prospect of a new
and local economies has been catastrophic. normal based on tele-conferences. However, with few
So too on the industries for whom the convention signs of the virus in retreat at the end of 2020, it is
calendar is the schedule around which many companies difficult to see a change to the status quo before mid-
plan their marketing activities – including aerospace. year at the earliest. ◗
When the Singapore air show took place in early
February 2020, Covid-19 was already spreading from
China into parts of Southeast Asia and beyond. The Industry will next visit
show went on – albeit with depleted exhibitor and Le Bourget in 2023
visitor numbers – but others did not. Starting with the
annual Aircraft Interiors Expo (AIX) in Hamburg in late
March, every significant event since was postponed or
cancelled, including July’s Farnborough air show, and
now Paris in June 2021.
With cases still rising in many parts of the world,
BillyPix
and before news broke about promising vaccine

developments, concerned organisers had already
£24bn
Further clarity on the UK’s long-term commitment to
Tempest is expected to emerge when it publishes the
outcome of its integrated review process early in the
year, while Sweden was scheduled to detail its future
priorities in a new defence bill in December 2020.
The early-stage nature of both FCAS projects
effectively rules out the likelihood of their
Increase in UK defence spending in next four years combination, as do factors including national industrial
considerations and the complications of the UK’s
Brexit process. Despite the potential extra cost and
In addition to the Team Tempest partners, more than reduced sales volume implications of having two future
200 other UK companies and academic institutions European fighter efforts, it is hard to see viable long-
had received contracts linked to the activity by term prospects for some of its current defence industry
October 2020. Michael Christie, BAE’s director of players, were the projects to be rationalised.
FCAS, refers to a “Tempest Generation” effect, where Additionally, with both FCAS concepts calling
more young people are being attracted to work in the for a system of systems approach, with fighters, a
aerospace sector because of the project. sophisticated new class of guided weapons and ❱

2021
❱ accompanying unmanned assets – described as

remote carrier, or additive capability vehicles – the
initiatives offer more industrial flexibility than was
possible with previous projects.
While both FCAS initiatives offer hope for Europe’s
fighter industry and military capability, questions
had been raised as to whether Airbus, BAE, Dassault,
Leonardo and Saab could keep their facilities active
until large-scale production of new systems can occur.
But here too the signs are encouraging. Industrial
continuity on the Eurofighter programme has been
assured by Germany’s follow-on Quadriga buy of 38
Tranche 4 examples. With production currently running
for export buyers Kuwait and Qatar, Berlin’s order will
production running until 2030. Spain, meanwhile, could
also acquire a further batch of 20 to replace some of
its Boeing F-18s.
60
Latin America air transport
Minimum number of Gripen E fighters to be

produced for Swedish air force by Saab
Southern
Dassault also has a strong Rafale production backlog
for France, India and Qatar, and Greece recently
announced its interest in buying 18 of the type.
Saab, meanwhile, which is at the start of producing
discomfort
60 Gripen Es for Sweden and 36 E/Fs for Brazil, is Carriers in Latin America will
pitching the fighter and its earlier C/D-version to other
potential buyers. not have an easy recovery from
While the manufacturers of Europe’s current three
rival fighters will increasingly be positioning for key a pandemic that has seen three
roles aboard a future class of combat aircraft, more
immediate opportunities exist to further safeguard
of the region's major airlines
their current production activities. enter bankruptcy protection
The Eurofighter and Rafale are both in contention for
Switzerland’s potentially 40-unit new fighter aircraft
need, facing competition from the F/A-18E/F Super Pilar Wolfsteller Las Vegas
Hornet and Lockheed Martin F-35A. Bern expects to
announce its decision during the second quarter.
L
Finland’s HX contest will also reach a conclusion atin American airlines’ climb out of the
in 2021. Helsinki is assessing the same candidates as coronavirus-driven downturn will likely be
Switzerland, plus the Gripen E/F. ◗ bumpier than their peers’ on other continents.
Economic instability coupled with widely
divergent travel restrictions, newly imposed taxes and
a lack of government financial aid will make for an
uneven recovery.
While some countries in the region, such as
Argentina and Panama, sealed their borders and
ceased flights to mitigate the spread of the virus,
others, such as Brazil and Mexico, still allow flights,
if at reduced levels.
V Almansa/Dassault
In addition, three of the region’s major carriers –

Aeromexico, Colombia’s Avianca and Chile’s LATAM
Airlines – are now restructuring under US Chapter
11 bankruptcy proceedings, creating additional
uncertainty for customers and investors.
The New Generation Fighter is a joint effort
These three have secured financing and hope to
being pursued by France, Germany and Spain
emerge from the restructuring process in the coming

Llamazares says it is a cultural thing. “In Latin

America, you have to close a deal in person. Face-to-
face contact is more important here, to build up trust.
We need to travel to do business.”
Still, concern about the economic health of Latin
American countries could lead companies to cut travel
budgets, slowing a business-travel rebound, he says.
Copa Airlines had the rug pulled out from under
its business model – connecting out-of-the-way
secondary cities to the capitals of the hemisphere –
when its home country, Panama, imposed a five-month
lockdown. The government banned travel through
Tocumen International airport, which Copa has long
marketed as its “hub of the Americas”.
Azul
But Copa and Tocumen could be unexpected
winners from the crisis, analysts say. Owing to its
Azul’s variety of aircraft sizes helps it respond to shifts in demand
advantageous geographical location directly between
the North and South American continents, 80% of
Tocumen’s annual 13 million passengers travel through
months in a stronger, more-stable position. And recent the airport on their way to somewhere else.
news about successful vaccine testing programmes has The airport’s new second terminal, opened in 2019,
also buoyed the mood, creating some optimism. is currently idle, but Llamazares says it is sitting pretty.
“Once the vaccine proves effective and once “In this new context of social distancing, needing
countries begin to recover their economic situation, more space between flights, Tocumen has a lot of
growth will be very fast,” says Eliseo Llamazares, head capacity to grow,” he says.
of the Latin American aviation and tourism practice at
KPMG. “Obviously in this context of uncertainty it is Low-density routes
more important to be prudent than optimistic. For this Citigroup’s director of research for airlines in the
reason, people think that the recovery will be slow. Americas, Stephen Trent, agrees. “Copa’s game is to
“But I prefer to be optimistic,” he adds. transport the guy going from Miami to Maracaibo,
Brazil, the most populous country in Latin America, Venezuela, or Sao Paolo to Guatemala City. You have
maintained a skeleton network of air connectivity this preponderance of low-density routes to places
throughout the crisis. Going into the southern which are now going to be even harder to reach
hemisphere’s summer travel season, which extends because the network airlines have pulled back so much.”
through Carnival in February, leading airlines Azul Copa, which launched out of the lockdown in August
and Gol say both leisure and corporate customers are with eight destinations, expected to have about 40% of
returning in greater numbers. pre-Covid capacity up and running by the end of 2020.
Brazil is considered one of the most underserved The divergent pace of reopenings, vastly different
markets, with lower per-capita air travel trips than in health requirements in different countries and newly
neighbouring countries. But with a growing middle imposed taxes – as well as the lack of government
class that can afford to travel by air, and vast distances support for aviation – have frustrated the region’s
to overcome, Brazil’s passenger carriers have grown industry executives and trade groups.
quickly, and expect that growth to continue. IATA has called upon countries to streamline policies
“Touristic activity in the country was always high around travel restrictions, implement more coronavirus
throughout the pandemic,” Llamazares says. “People testing and rein in fees in order to reopen air corridors
lived with Covid and knew what the risks were.” and motivate customers to return to air travel.
Argentina imposed some of the strictest travel curbs
More leisure on the continent, shutting down both domestic and
Gol said in November that it had “recovered 100% international air traffic. In the aftermath, the country
of pre-Covid demand”, predicting that by the end has systematically imposed barriers that will prevent
of the first quarter of 2021 it will resume flights to all a widespread recovery, the organisation maintains.
pre-coronavirus destinations. New travel taxes of up to 35% and additional levies
Azul, meantime, is even more bullish, saying it on US dollar purchases overseas of up 60% discourage
expects domestic leisure passenger revenue in the potential customers who are already wary of taking an
coming months to exceed last year’s figures. airliner anywhere. Government restrictions on airport
“The airline with the best performance during the operations also now prevent low-cost carriers such as
pandemic was Azul,” Llamazares says, adding that the FlyBondi from reinstating service.
carrier’s flexibility and variety of aircraft sizes – from “Argentina’s air travel industry is in the worst
ATR 72 turboprops to Airbus A330s – help it respond situation in the region,” Llamazares says. But
to demand fluctuations. Argentinians have always been savvy, avid travellers,
Both Azul and Gol have said that in addition to and they will demand the freedom to move around
Brazilians looking for a vacation break in their own after the pandemic is over, despite the government’s
country, more lucrative corporate customers are perceived efforts to keep them on the ground.
coming back faster than, for example, in North America. “Argentina always surprises us,” Llamazares adds.
Azul expects 35-40% of business travel will return by “I think 2021 will be weak, but 2022 will be a positive
the end of 2020, rising to 75-80% by July. surprise in Argentina.” ◗

Team Tempest
Elettronica is one of four Italian businesses backing Tempest
Murdo Morrison London Germany and Spain, which are collaborating on a rival
project spearheaded by Dassault and Airbus Defence
W
& Space to design a rival next-generation fighter to go
orking as part of a pan-European military into service in the 2040s.
aircraft enterprise is nothing new for In global aerospace terms, Elettronica is a modest-
Elettronica. The Italian electronic warfare sized firm: it employs around 750 people and its 2019
(EW) specialist – founded in Rome 70 revenues of €268 million ($326 million) place it just
years ago and still family-run – has since the 1990s been outside FlightGlobal’s Top 100 ranking of aerospace
the country’s champion on the EuroDASS consortium groups by revenue. However, the company’s well-
that provides the Praetorian defensive aids subsystem honed expertise in EW means it can compete on
(DASS) on the Eurofighter Typhoon. Before that, it equal terms with some of the industry’s largest
played a role in the Panavia Tornado programme. players, insists Paolo Izzo, vice-president global sales.
Now the firm is one of four Italian industrial “EW in these big groups is a division. It is our entire
representatives working with the UK’s Team Tempest business,” he says.
in developing a successor to the Typhoon – the Joining the Italian contingent on Team Tempest
Tempest future combat air system. The effort pits alongside Elettronica are GE Aviation subsidiary Avio
aerospace and defence companies in Italy, Sweden Aero, Leonardo, and the national arm of European
and the UK against their counterparts in France, missiles house MBDA. In July, the four companies

Italy Elettronica
Italian electronic warfare specialist Elettronica has

a long track record of involvement in European
defence programmes, but has also been making its
own mark in markets beyond the region
Team player sales. “And that experience is the best base for us to
help develop a sixth-generation fighter.”
Other corporate characteristics necessary for the
Tempest effort, he believes, include “the ability to work
with partners, to follow a technological plan, and to be
open and agile to adapt to new developments. These
are all in the DNA of Elettronica.”
Electronic warfare
Elettronica’s EW expertise stretches from infrared
countermeasures against heat-seeking missiles to
escort-jamming technology and anti-drone systems.
EW, maintains Zoccali, is becoming crucial in modern
warfighting. “It is much more important than in the
past. In the next-generation fighter, EW will play a
Elettronica
crucial role in a systems of systems environment.

Future battles will only be won if we can win this
technological race,” he says.
The company’s new EW simulation lab is used for training
A relatively new development for Elettronica is its
ground-based ADRIAN – anti-drone interception,
acquisition and neutralisation – system, which, says
– with BAE Systems, Saab and other industrial Izzo, is the result of an effort “five to seven years ago
representatives from the UK and Sweden – officially to study threats and doctrine in the EW field”. The
kicked off “trilateral industry discussions” on what each result: a product able to counter hostile mini- and
company will contribute to the development effort. micro-drones, comprising command and control radar,
This followed a framework pact signed at 2019’s DSEI jammer and electro-optical technology. Elettronica is
defence exhibition in London. in talks with the Italian military and a “country in the
But that was not the only international collaboration Middle East” about deployment.
initiated by Elettronica that year. It also joined its Elettronica’s business strategy includes moving from
EuroDASS partners Leonardo UK, Spain’s Indra and marketing single pieces of equipment to offering entire
Hensoldt of Germany to launch “Praetorian Evolution” EW suites, marking an approach to airborne combat
– a “future concept” for the DASS that provides technology “in which the various subsystems are no
protection for the Typhoon from the likes of infrared longer federate and physically divided by type, but,
or radar-guided missiles. Future capabilities are likely rather, integrated at a functional level”, according to
to include high-precision targeting and advanced the company. “We want to be not only a provider of
combat identification. products, but a solution provider,” says Izzo.
“We have been the design authority on the An example of this is the Virgilius multi-platform
Praetorian with Leonardo UK since the beginning,” says EW system, which combines alert, surveillance
Giovanni Zoccali, vice-president Europe and consortia and deception functions in a one-box design, ❱

Italy Elettronica, Tecnam
Light aircraft
That is not the only new variant of the P2012
Versatile Traveller unveiled in 2020. A month earlier, Tecnam rolled out its
Sentinel SMP, a special mission variant of the platform
on which it has worked with L3Harris, capable of
accommodating five mission specialists along with one
With two new versions of its or two pilots, as well as a turret-mounted camera and
synthetic aperture radar.
P2012 on the cards and deliveries Tecnam says a fully-equipped Sentinel SMP with
six crew members on board will, at a maximum take-
of its flagship regional transport off weight of 3,680kg (8,110lb), provide up to nine
to Cape Air under way, Tecnam hours’ flight time, at “a fraction of the acquisition and
operating costs” of other types performing a similar
has barely drawn breath in 2020 role. The company says it “foresees an increasing
demand” from the special mission market.
Also in October, Tecnam secured European Union
Murdo Morrison London Aviation Safety Agency certification for the latest
iteration of its P2010 piston single, the diesel/Jet
D
espite the economic and logistical challenges A1-powered P2010 TDI, five months after rolling out
of Covid-19, 2020 was a busy year for Tecnam, the variant at its Capua base. The 170hp (127kW)
the Campania-based light aircraft manufacturer Continental CD-170-powered TDI joins existing avgas-
and the first new entrant in the commercial powered 180hp and 215hp versions.
air transport market in a generation with the nine- However, the P2012 remains its flagship. Tecnam
passenger P2012 Traveller, assembled at its site near believes the type, which has a list price of $2.6 million
Naples. and range of 950nm (1,760km), has the potential to
After putting its first P2012 into revenue service just be a genuine disruptor in the small regional transport
before the pandemic took hold on 22 February, launch market, with its only rivals being airframes that were
customer Massachusetts-based Cape Air had taken designed 50 or more years ago, such as the Cessna
delivery of 16 of the Lycoming TEO-540-C1A-powered 402 and the Britten-Norman Islander, hundreds of
twin-piston type by November, with three more set to which remain in operation.
arrive before the end of the year. The airline has a total
firm order for 23, and options for another 90.
Cape Air says the P2012, which replaces some of the
carrier’s legacy Cessna 402s, has been “well received
by our passengers and the communities it serves”.
The P2012s delivered so far are flying in New England,
where the Cape Cod-headquartered firm serves a range
of airports, including Boston, but the regional carrier
also has operations in Montana and the Caribbean.
Additionally, in October, Tecnam announced a
partnership with Rolls-Royce to develop an electric-
powered version of its largest aircraft, called the P-Volt. Cape Air
The two companies have already paired on a project

called H3PS to design an electric version of Tecnam’s
four-seat P2010, pairing a R-R electric motor with a
Cape Air introduced its first P2012 to service in early 2020
Rotax combustion engine.
❱ and can be integrated with a directional infrared company will be making just over half its revenues
countermeasures device. “It is a passive and active from outside Europe.
system in one,” says Izzo. Customers include the Italian Like many of the country’s businesses, Elettronica is
air force, which has fitted Vigilius on its Leonardo proud of its “made in Italy” credentials. “Traditionally,
Helicopters AW101 combat search and rescue fleet. we are an Italian company and the EW point of
reference for the Italian ministry of defence,” says
Overseas success Zoccali. Italy provides a “solid 10%” of revenues, but
Elettronica says it has grown its order backlog by that domestic endorsement is vital. “Support from your
more than 50% in five years to around €800 million, own armed forces is an important step for sponsorship
mainly as a result of success overseas, particularly in of sales to all the markets in the world,” he adds.
the Gulf and Asia. The company has recently opened Even cracking the relatively closed transatlantic
sales and support offices in Abu Dhabi, India, Qatar marketplace may be a possibility in the future, if
and Singapore, and “this intense activity is bearing Elettronica’s bosses can find the right company to
fruit with substantial orders”. work with. “We do not at the moment compete for the
To support its customers Elettronica has also US budget,” says Zoccali. “But what we are trying to do
opened a simulation lab at its headquarters near is partner to present our portfolio. You never know, one
Rome. Zoccali expects that in the next 10 years, the day we may have a presence there.” ◗

Designing
sustainable and
connected skies
from Europe
to the world
Partnering with the aviation industry to develop and produce advanced co-designed solutions.
Growing at the speed of digital transformation. Driven by human intelligence.
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avioaero.com
Rocketing
ambitions
Thales Alenia Space
Avio is prime contractor for Europe’s Vega launcher
Murdo Morrison London Taranis satellites had been on board. He vowed to

“restore the viability” of the 30m (98ft)-high launcher,
I
which can carry payloads up to 1.5t. “We can fix this
taly’s 60-year-old space sector suffered a setback on quite rapidly,” he insisted.
15 November, when an Arianespace Vega launcher, Getting the launcher – 65% of which is manufactured
built by the country’s rocket propulsion champion Avio, in Italy – back to service quickly will be vital not just
veered off course 8min after launch from the Kourou for Avio but the reputation of the country’s space
spaceport in French Guiana and plunged into the industry, one of Europe’s biggest, with a history dating
Atlantic along with its payload of two satellites. It was from Telespazio’s founding in 1961. The latest version
the second mission failure of a Vega rocket in 18 months. of Europe’s small launch vehicle, Vega C, which is able
An inquiry into the failure of mission VV17, led by to take 2,300kg (5,070lb) to low Earth orbit, had been
the European Space Agency (ESA) and operator due to fly in June 2021.
Arianespace, was underway at time of writing, with
evidence pointing to an integration problem during Space entities
assembly of the electro-mechanical actuator system The Rome region-headquartered space propulsion
on the nozzle of the launcher’s fourth and final stage, house – formerly a sister unit of military and
causing the rocket’s trajectory to degrade just after the commercial engine systems manufacturer Avio Aero,
stage had ignited. but spun off as an independent business when the
Following the incident, Giulio Ranzo, chief executive latter was acquired by General Electric in 2013 – is
of Avio, offered via a video message “deepest one of three major space entities based in or with a
apologies” to customers – the SEOSAT-Ingenio and substantial industrial presence in Italy.

Italy Space
An early cosmic pioneer, Italy is

determined to continue playing a
central role in emerging fields such
as reusable space transportation
The others are satellite services specialist Telespazio, “Our long term strategy with the ISS has been
owned two-thirds by Leonardo and one third by to place us in a strong position in terms of space
Thales, and satellite manufacturer Thales Alenia Space, exploration,” says Saccoccia. “We have done this
another joint venture between the Italian and French via our participation in ESA, but also through direct
companies in which the shareholdings are reversed. collaboration with the USA, and as a result of this we
The two businesses market themselves jointly as the have been responsible for many elements of the ISS.
Space Alliance. This has given us an opportunity to have access with
However, Italy’s space sector also comprises some [Italian] astronauts.”
200 start-ups and other small and medium-sized Telespazio chief executive Luigi Pasquali believes Italy
firms that are “a driver for the economy and an can continue to play a major role in space because “our
important seed of growth, delivering a quantitative and industrial sector covers the entire value chain”, making
qualitative return”, says Giorgio Saccoccia, president it a leader in fields such as synthetic aperture radar,
of the Italian Space Agency (ASI). In total the industry situational awareness and collision avoidance systems,
employs more than 7,000 people and turns over and space-based military communications; the company
around €2 billion ($2.4 billion). is behind Italy’s SICRAL secure satellite system.
Italy was a European cosmic pioneer – it became A healthy supply chain of SMEs that can draw
the third nation to put a satellite in space after the on venture capital as well as state funding will
USSR and the USA with the launch of atmospheric remain crucial to the industry, he maintains. “The
research platform San Marco I on a US rocket in 1964. space economy has brought space closer to users,
Throughout the 1960s, Telespazio played a key role in broadening its previously technological horizon,” he
satellite broadcasting, including distributing images of says. “Today space is user-driven by the needs of the
the Apollo 11 Moon landing across Europe. market. The new paradigm justifies private funding as it
The ASI, which with a budget of around €800 ensures a return on investment.”
million is one of the largest space agencies in Europe,
has also been heavily involved in the International Launch pad
Space Station (ISS), sending three Italian astronauts As well as getting the current Vega programme back
on a total of 10 missions. Thales Alenia Space has on schedule, future key projects for Italy’s space
been the second largest industrial participant in the sector include a further iteration of the launcher, the
construction of the ISS itself, producing many of the Vega E, whose maiden flight is scheduled for 2024.
housing modules on behalf of ESA. On 9 December, Thales Alenia Space and Avio also
announced a contract with ESA to develop Europe’s
automated reusable Space Rider transport system.
The platform, which will be launched on Vega C, is
designed to remain in low Earth orbit for two months
before re-entering the atmosphere and landing. Space
Rider will build on the Italian-led IXV project, the
experimental European space shuttle that flew in 2015,
with Thales Alenia Space being responsible for the
re-entry module, and Avio the propulsion system and
service module.
Avio’s Ranzo says Space Rider expands the use
of the Vega launcher into returnable transport and
in-orbit servicing. Massimo Claudio Comparini, senior
executive vice-president at Thales Alenia Space,
believes the effort, led from the joint venture’s Turin
site, puts Italy “at the forefront of the space economy
and will boost the huge development opportunities
offered by the space domain”.
November’s Vega failure may have slowed the
trajectory of its space industry in the short term, but
with its central role in initiatives such as Space Rider,
ASI
Italy is determined to remain one of Europe’s – and the

Italian astronaut Luca Parmitano on the International Space Station
world’s – great space nations in the decades to come. ◗

The Italian
Space Agency
For over 32 years Italy has that reports directly to the President
been looking at space throu- of Council of Ministers.
ASI is today among the top six space
gh the eyes of the Italian agencies in the world and Italy is the
Space Agency (ASI). third contributing country within the
European Space Agency (ESA) after
ASI has the task of preparing and France and Germany. Thanks to its di-
implementing the Italian space policy plomatic capacity, ASI boasts interna-
both for national and international tional collaborations with all the major
programs in accordance with the VSDFHDJHQFLHVRIWKHZRUOGĆUVWRIDOO
Governments directives set by the with NASA, which has led ASI to take
“Interministerial Committee for Space part in some of the most interesting
and Aerospace Policies” (COMINT) VFLHQWLĆFPLVVLRQV
The Earth from Space under the Italian lens
Thanks to the experience in Together with the European Earth led representation of urban or industrial
building satellites and in ra- observation program Copernicus, environments, extracting information
COSMO-SkyMed boasts a number of QRWRQO\IURPUHćHFWLYHVXUIDFHVEXW
dar technology in the field of features that can be exploited in diffe- even from shadows. The satellite system
Earth Observation, Italy with rent domains, including archaeological can be used in various applications: from
the Italian Space Agency is monitoring and the preservation of the security and surveillance of territories
world cultural heritage. and boundaries, to the prevention and
at the forefront in protecting In detail, the First and Second genera- analysis of natural disasters.
and monitoring our planet. tion satellites of this constellation are This constellation is the result of the
able to scan our planet from space meter collaboration between industry and
Climate change monitoring, emergency by meter, day and night, regardless of Italian research which, led by ASI, has
management, environmental surveillan- weather conditions. The innovative created a unique product in the world,
ce. These are just some of the potential characteristics of the radar satellites of able to further strengthen the Italian
applications of the Italian technological COSMO-SkyMed and COSMO-Secon- world leadership in the sector of Earth
excellence that in thirteen years has dGeneration represent the different observation.
changed the way we observe the Earth. nature of the land observed with false 7KHUHDUHDWRWDORIĆYHVDWHOOLWHVFXU-
We are talking about the COSMO-Sky- color images - thus discriminating water, UHQWO\LQRUELW7KHĆIWKWKDWUHSUHVHQWV
Med dual constellation – civil and trees, crops, glaciers, ground covered WKHĆUVWVDWHOOLWHRIWKHQHZJHQHUDWLRQ
military - developed by the Italian Space with snow, etc. Thanks to a very high was added over a year ago and the
Agency (ASI) in collaboration with the spatial resolution and to the power of second satellite is waiting to be launched
Ministry of Defense. the signal they can also provide a detai- later this year.
Blackshape
Company’s two seat, ultralight Prime was certificated in 2012
Murdo Morrison London retractable landing gear, a Hartzell Raptor three-
A
bladed propeller, and an Aspen Avionics Evolution
decade after its birth, and despite a 1000 glass cockpit. It is capable of a maximum level
very fragile market for flying schools speed of 164kt (304km/h).
and commercial pilot recruitment, Italy’s Customers include KLM low-cost subsidiary
Blackshape is preparing for an ambitious Transavia, which in 2019 launched its multi-crew pilot
ramp-up of its flagship piston trainer programme. licence syllabus with the Zelf Vliegen flight academy
After launching the BK-160 Gabriel as its second in the Netherlands. The school uses two Gabriels
product in 2015, the company is looking to boost to train students in basic flight training, including
annual production of the tandem-seat, all-carbon type upset prevention and recovery, and has plans to add
to 30 units in 2021, and up to 60 by 2023. Since the further aircraft “after the pandemic”, says Belviso. The
aircraft’s certification in 2017, around 20 examples Gabriel’s maximum take-off weight is 850kg (1,870lb)
have entered service. and no other type in its category is purpose-built
It is a “challenging” target, admits chief executive for pilot instruction, says Belviso: “It is the first plane
Luciano Belviso, an aerospace engineer who founded designed for training for several decades.”
the business – based in the southern Adriatic port
of Monopoli – in 2010. However, he is confident that Angel investment
a reviving commercial aviation training sector in Blackshape has a 100-strong workforce, but since 2011
2021, together with emerging interest from “light ISR has been part of industrial holding group Angel, whose
[intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance]” and companies in sectors such as railway signalling and
high-end recreational customers, justifies his optimism. automatic payment systems employ more than 1,600,
“Our backlog is exceeding our aspirations,” he maintains. including 1,200 engineers. While Blackshape remains
Blackshape’s original product was the Prime, a largely autonomous, Belviso says Angel’s involvement
low-wing, two-seat ultralight, powered by the 75kW is more than a distant financial investment. “There is
(100hp) Rotax 912 or the larger 86kW Rotax 914, and a lot of mentoring involved and we can draw on the
certificated in 2012. The company has sold some 80 resources and competences of a larger entity,” he says.
examples, mostly to private pilots. However, shortly Blackshape addresses three segments: recreational,
after its release, Belviso says he and his team identified a “growing training market, and another growing
a “big potential from the B2B [business-to-business] portion, which is light ISR”, says Belviso. For the latter,
market” based on “feedback from the performance of the firm has developed a version of the Prime called
the Prime”, and started talking to training organisations the BK-ISR, able to carry up to 200kg of electro-
about a higher-spec offering for that sector. optical sensor payloads. In 2019, a remotely-piloted
The result was the Lycoming IO-320-powered example took part in an Italian navy-led surveillance
Gabriel, work on which began in 2015 with certification demonstration in the Gulf of Taranto to the south
following two years later, just before the aircraft’s of Italy, as part of the European Defence Agency’s
unveiling at the Aero show in Friedrichshafen, OCEAN 2020 programme. An ISR variant of the
Germany. The 9m (29ft 5in)-wingspan aircraft has Gabriel, with a higher payload, is also available.

Italy Training
Italian aircraft developer has set itself a

‘challenging target’ for output of its flagship
programme in 2021, with high hopes for sales
in the ISR and US recreational markets
Blackshaping
the future
Belviso says Blackshape does have undisclosed ISR
customers, and he believes there are still plenty of
test pilots and flight-test engineers, and operates four
Primes, with three Gabriels due to be added.
opportunities. “The market tends to be large platforms One possible development for Blackshape is a
with very high performance sensors. If we shift below turboprop version of the Gabriel. In July, the company
that, it is possible to answer a large number of tactical said it had conducted several flights of a Rolls-Royce
missions, such as maritime surveillance, where you M250-B17-powered “Gabriel-TP”. Belviso is reluctant
don’t need a large platform, or a rotary solution, which to give further details, promising only that “we have a
is more expensive,” he says. “Scenarios have changed target in mind [for this project] and sometime in 2021
a lot in 20 years.” we will provide an update”.
Belviso expects the defence and parapublic sectors Also on the cards is a plan to open a new factory at
will take longer to crack because of the “slower Bari airport, most likely towards the end of 2021, to
decision-making process”, and that commercial help with the production increase.
training will remain Blackshape’s biggest sector for
the next few years. “Despite the pandemic, we expect Order pipeline
this market to stay consistent,” he says. Customers Additionally, Blackshape is stepping up its marketing
include the Test Flying Academy of South Africa, which efforts in the USA, where light sport aircraft regulations
specialises in the training of commercial and military make the Prime uncompetitive in the general aviation
segment, but there is a big opportunity with the
Gabriel, says Belviso. Its first aircraft there was used
for US Federal Aviation Administration validation. The
pandemic has delayed further deliveries, but Belviso
says there is “a full pipeline” of orders, and shipments
to the USA will start in the second quarter of 2021.
Describing the Italian-styled type as a “Ferrari of
the skies”, he depicts the typical US GA customer as
“someone who enjoys the pleasure of flying rather than
just needing an aircraft to get from A to B”.
It is a philosophy that also applies to its approach
to the training segment. The difference between
Blackshape and many of its rivals is that “we never
intended to make a solution that competes only on
price”, says Belviso, who started the company with co-
founder Angelo Petrosillo because the pair wanted to
Blackshape
“go back to our origins” in southern Italy after working

abroad. “We are dedicated to a niche of the market
that wants dedicated solutions and whose priority is to
High-spec Gabriel is aimed at training market
build airmanship.” ◗

From yuckspeak to tales of yore, send your offcuts to murdo.morrison@flightglobal.com
Saving the last

Beverley
The last Blackburn B-101 Beverley – a 1950s UK Royal
Air Force transporter with a hull capable of carrying 90
troops – has been saved by benefactors, 46 years after
its final flight.
XB259 had been part of the display at Fort Paull, a
former gun battery and heritage centre on the Humber,
since 2003. However, the site’s closure this year
threatened its future.
The plan is for the Beverley – a former test example
and the only survivor of 49 built at Brough between
1952 and 1958 – to live out its days at Birchwood
Lodge, a private airfield in Yorkshire, close to the Fort Paull
original factory.
However, Martyn Wiseman, managing director of
Condor Aviation, who with an anonymous colleague
Moving the last B-101 Beverley transporter won’t be an easy task
bought the four-engined Bristol Centaurus-powered
aircraft, now needs to raise £100,000 ($132,000) to
dismantle it and carry it to its new home, where it will
be the centerpiece of a larger exhibit. According to the Transportation Safety Board of
“The Blackburn has an esteemed history, and as a fan Canada, the crew declared an emergency and began
of radial engine aircraft, I couldn’t bear to see this go to commence a descent.
the same way as all the others,” he says. Although they consulted the quick-reference
But with an almost 50m (164ft) wingspan and “a handbook for the fumes procedure, the odour did not
fuselage so large you can fit a single-decker bus inside” dissipate, and the pilots diverted to land at St John’s
it will be an engineering feat to move it, he admits. in Newfoundland.
● If you want to help, contact Wiseman at No failures or faults were recorded by the aircraft’s
condoraviation.co.uk systems, and a quick inspection confirmed there was
no-one from Quebec stowing – or burning – timber on
the deck.
Smoke in your skies But there has been a fair amount of wood blazing
over in Colorado, the scene of recent wildfires, and
investigators reckon the crew detected the distinctive
From Canada, a campfire tale concerning a Delta Air scent after it was carried aloft to high-altitude eastern
Lines Airbus A330-300 whose pilots and cabin crew Canadian airspace.
noted the smell of “wood smoke” while in cruise for Smokey Bear says: “Only you can prevent someone’s
London on 22 October. in-flight movie being interrupted.”
From the archive
1921 Badge of honour 100

The Royal Air Force is to have its own ensign, the
1946 Pioneering vision 75
January 11th, 1946, is destined to become one of
design of which has been approved by His Majesty. the red-letter dates in the history of the Royal
It consists of a flag of R.A.F. blue, having the Union Aeronautical Society, not merely because it was the
flag in the upper canton next the staff, as in all eightieth birthday of the Society (actually the first
British national ensigns. The “fly” bears the circular meeting of the council was held on January 12th,
identification mark borne by British Service aircraft, 1866) but because the anniversary dinner was held in
so familiar a sight during the War. There is to us a London’s ancient Guildhall, an honour which, as Sir
double significance in this grant of a distinctive ensign Frederick Handley Page pointed out, was appropriate
to the Royal Air Force. Not only does it convey a as well as highly valued. The founders of the R.Ae.S.,
sense of honour worthily earned, but it signifies also as the Minister of Supply and Aircraft Production so
the separateness, if we may call it so, from the sister aptly expressed it, were farsighted to a remarkable
services of the Royal Air Force, and stamps it as one degree. But a few years after the first run of
distinct in its duties and its very element from both Stephenson’s “Rocket,” they began to ponder the next
Navy and Army, though owing allegiance to a single step, the problems of getting into the air, which must
ideal and devoted to a common task. have appeared to them almost insuperable.

Straight & Level
Speed reading
Aviation writer Andreas Spaeth is hoping to find
an English-language publisher for his new book (in
German) on supersonic airliners – the first, he claims,
to cover all aspects
of faster-than-sound
initiatives, from Concorde
and the American and
Soviet efforts in the 1960s
to the likes of Aerion and
Boom in the 2020s.
The tome includes several
rare images, including of
the Boeing SST, as well as
Flight International’s very
own cover from 2003 marking the final commercial
flight of Concorde.
To order a copy, in German, got to the Motorbuch
Versand website, where it is priced at €29.90.
FlySafair footage – with cocktail-

partygoers shown mask- and
glove-free – conveys the
unmasked wrong impression.

“The failure to show masks
in subsequent scenes… may
You have to sympathise with imply to some viewers that,
South African carrier FlySafair once you are on holiday, the
which, under budget pressures rules no longer apply,” the
caused by coronavirus, board ruled on 23 October.
FlySafair
repurposed one of its broadcast FlySafair’s explanation

Take a holiday from the rules
adverts because it couldn’t afford that the costs to reshoot the
to film an entirely new one. advert were “prohibitive”,
This hasn’t gone down well with the Advertising and that it inserted disclaimers and scenes where
Regulatory Board. It acknowledges that scenes mask-wearing is not enforced, didn’t sufficiently
of aircraft boarding have been updated to feature move the regulator, which has ordered the advert’s
passengers and cabin crew wearing the necessary withdrawal. “‘It was too expensive’ is not a defence,” it
pandemic paraphernalia, but points out that re-used says. Harsh.
1971 Jumbo paypacket 50

Following talks which began in July 1969, and a
1996 Blinded by the light
Hotel and casino operators in Las Vegas have been
25
dispute which has kept BOAC’s 747s on the ground ordered to suspend their laser displays following an
for nearly a year (they have not yet entered service), incident involving a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737
the corporation and its pilots have agreed rates for first officer being temporarily blinded by a burst
flying the Boeing 747. Senior captains on all types of laser light. The incident, which took place on 30
will receive £9,000 a year, which represents a rise October, 1995, happened as the 737 was passing
of about £400 on their previous maximum possible through 7,000ft (2,000m) in a right turnout after
salary. The first BOAC services to New York with the leaving Las Vegas McCarran Airport. The first officer,
747 should now begin twice weekly in April, with daily who was flying the aircraft at the time, was “unable to
flights beginning in May. The airline will take delivery see for about 2min” because of the light. Following an
of its second batch of three 747s shortly, with two due investigation by the FAA and the US Food and Drug
to arrive in February and one in March. They will be Administration (which licenses the lasers), operators
flown initially with three-pilot crews, but BOAC and have been ordered to suspend their use temporarily,
Balpa have agreed to carry out an evaluation aimed at pending the establishment of new aiming, beam
achieving two-pilot operation by the late autumn. dispersion and power-output guidelines.

Letters Letters
Plane-spotting, 2020-style
Chris Kemp/Shutterstock
Deja vu?
The current sad sight of stored aircraft, and airliners being used for
sightseeing flights or on-the-ground dining (Flight International,
November 2020), prompted memories of my childhood in London
Early warning and my Dad taking me for a pleasure flight from London Airport – as
Heathrow was known then – in a Dragon Rapide.
With reference to your recent De During the circuit we passed over a line of recently-grounded Comet
Havilland competition question 1s and I recall the emotional voice of the pilot describing his concerns for
about the Comet spawning the the future of British civil aviation.
Nimrod (Flight International, Another memory was of a flight in an Auster over the Solent and
November 2020): when I was seeing the Saunders-Roe Princess flying boat on the slipway below. Now
working at Woodford to put the my local airfield of Hurn (Bournemouth International) has its own long
support in place for the ill-fated line of grounded Airbuses.
airborne early warning Nimrod, we
discovered that the Nimrod crash Chris Coates
switches were originally used on Poole, Dorset, UK
the Avro Lancaster!
Mike Parker
Preston, Lancashire, UK visited the event some years later, somebody somewhere in your
and it was fantastic. audience? Have you actually
I paid a whopping NZ$2.35 for had complaints about the use of
the magazine, and it was worth the term ‘Christmas’ with all its
Essential reading every cent.
I still cannot get over an article
shocking connotations, of peace on
Earth, goodwill to all mankind and
When sorting out my magazine in it about a TriStar incident with the birth of a Saviour?
library, this Flight International issue an in-flight fire that killed all 300 I trust that with this discarding,
dated 30 August 1980 was there on board, owing to two butane and to avoid hypocrisy, you have
– its article on the Farnborough gas cookers. The article states that decided to forego the proffered
air show was the reason that we “Camping stoves are known to have bank holidays and other trimmings,
been carried (and occasionally used and will be working straight
in cabin aisles)” on some flights. through with no festivities allowed.
Can you imagine that happening Poor show. Uncle Roger would
today? You would not get those surely be horrified.
things on board, let alone use them.
via email
George Empson
Lake Tekapo, New Zealand Editor’s reply: Oh dear – perhaps
this outrage was prompted by
narrowly missing out on getting
that treasured Total Aviation
Festive humbug Person score in our fiendish annual
quiz? There is no do-goodery
I’m perplexed that Uncle Roger’s occurring here: our use of the term
Christmas quiz has mysteriously ‘Festive’ reflects the fact that the
disappeared, to be replaced by a quiz questions are not Christmas-
‘Festive’ quiz (Flight International, themed, and has been used by us
December 2020). for many years with this feature.
What exactly are we feasting More seasonal cheer next time,
about, if not the birth of Christ please, or you might end up on
2020 years ago? Is this some do- Uncle Roger’s naughty list! Now,
gooder’s attempt at not offending where did we put the sherry…
We welcome
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Teara Fraser, founder and chief executive of the
first indigenous-woman-owned airline, tells the story
of how earning her wings helped her connect to the
land of her ancestors in Canada’s Arctic region
North star
Pilar Wolfsteller Las Vegas She chose the name partly because her company
is the first indigenous-woman-owned airline. But it
also celebrates broader achievements of women
I
n October 2001, Teara Fraser, a Canadian single everywhere, she says, and efforts by those working to
mother of two, stepped out of her comfort zone and achieve gender equity.
into a small aircraft for the first time. Iskwew Air, based at Vancouver International airport,
Within minutes, the trajectory of her life ferries goods and people throughout the vast, sparsely
fundamentally changed. populated region in an eight-passenger, twin-engined
“All of a sudden I could witness the land from the air, Piper PA-31 Navajo Chieftain. Fraser has christened her
like a bird,” she says. “I told myself: ‘I don’t care what it aircraft “The Sweetgrass Warrior”.
takes to make this happen. I’m going to fly airplanes.’” “You have gifts, and you have knowledge, and it is
Within a year, Fraser was a certified commercial our responsibility to share those,” she says. “So, for
pilot, and began flying passengers in northern British me, it was about: how can I take what I’ve learned
Columbia. She was a young indigenous woman aiming and do good with it? How can I serve and uplift
high in a white man’s industry. indigenous communities?”
“Like most pilots, I had that dream of flying the
big iron,” she says. “I thought that the bigger the bird
I could fly, the more I have arrived.”
Born in Canada’s Northwest Territories, the 49-year-
“We need to think about
old calls herself “a proud Métis woman” – a member of
an indigenous group with a distinct collective identity, reciprocity with the land
customs and way of life. In 2020, she was named one
of Canada’s “Top 25 Women of Influence”. and how we walk gently
She has arrived, but in ways she never imagined.
Fraser never went on to fly the big iron. With time,
the dream shifted to a different, more-difficult path.
on our Mother Earth”
In 2010, she became an entrepreneur, founding an
aerial survey company, which allowed her to combine The airline has continued operating through the
two things she loved dearly: aviation and the land of coronavirus crisis, bringing urgently needed aid to far-
her ancestors. After six years she sold the business and flung towns and villages – places that often rely on air
was on the verge of hanging up her wings. bridges to connect them to other population centres.
“My wings literally gave me wings for everything else Iskwew is a member of the new Canadian Advanced
I did in my life,” she says. “But being in this industry is Air Mobility Consortium (CAAM), a multi-stakeholder
hard, it’s so tiring.” group committed to developing and building the
In the process of letting go, a rebirth happened. sector in Canada.
“I began to imagine an industry that was different “We want to be part of the ecosystem that is
from the one that I was in – an industry that co-creating the next frontier of sustainable air
welcomed and respected matriarchal leadership,” she transportation, bringing innovative technology
says. “What would be possible in an industry where solutions to serve social, ecological and
there is true diversity? environmental justice. The consortium is looking at
“And so then I began to think about how I create equity as a core part of the model of rebuilding the
that for myself.” air transportation system.”
In 2019 she launched Iskwew Air, an air charter “We need airplanes,” she says. “But we also need to
company that serves remote indigenous communities be really thinking about reciprocity with the land and
across British Columbia and its neighbouring how we walk more gently on our Mother Earth.” And
provinces and territories. “Iskwew” (pronounced in so doing, she hopes to be part of the solution that
“iss-kway-yo”) is the word for “woman” in the will “honour, uplift and energise [the] indigenous land
indigenous Cree language. story, sovereignty and stewardship”.

Women in aviation
Rob Kruyt
Teara Fraser heads Iskwew Air, a

Vancouver-based charter company
Fraser hopes to pass her passion for aviation to is important, but that is not going to make someone
young people, but at the same time takes the industry the best at something.
to task for its lack of diversity, and advocates for Even more vital than the subject matter is, as she
improved minority representation. puts it, “to show up with intention”.
“Indigenous youth are the fastest-growing “The technical stuff can be taught,” she says. “To be
demographic in our country. They are smart, resilient, a pilot, you need to care about people and safeguard
creative, innovative, and grounded. They bring a new, the wellbeing of others. You need to act with integrity
much-needed perspective,” she says, adding that and honesty, hold yourself to a high level of capability
industry leaders must realise they are better served and accountability.
with increased diversity of worldview and wisdom. “I started my own company because I want to be
And to the young people, she advises diligence. able to show up as my whole self proudly, and I want
Specialised scientific knowledge, like maths or physics, that for everyone in our industry.” ◗
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