The Future of Optimism

Christopher Peterson
University of Michigan

Recent theoretical discussions of optimism as an inherent entwined, perhaps too much so. Optimism as a research
aspect of human nature converge with empirical investiga- topic has flourished in the contemporary United States
tions of optimism as an individual difference to show that precisely while people in general have become more hope-
optimism can be a highly beneficial psychological charac- ful about the future.
teristic linked to good mood, perseverance, achievement, The danger of this coupling is twofold. First, some of
and physical health. Questions remain about optimism as a the documented benefits of optimism--at least as typically
research topic and more generally as a societal value. Is studied--may be bounded. Optimism in some circum-
the meaning of optimism richer than its current conceptu- stances can have drawbacks and costs, although researchers
alization in cognitive terms? Are optimism and pessimism rarely look for these qualifying conditions. Second, even if
mutually exclusive? What is the relationship between op- it needs to be contextualized, optimism as a research topic
timism and reality, and what are the costs of optimistic deserves to be more than a fad. A sophisticated optimism
beliefs that prove to be wrong? How can optimism be can be quite beneficial to individuals in trying circum-
cultivated? How does optimism play itself out across dif- stances, and it behooves psychologists to learn as much as
ferent cultures? Optimism promises to be one of the im- possible about the topic right now, when society supports
portant topics of interest to positive social science, as long this interest, so that these lessons can be deployed in other
as it is approached in an even-handed way. times and places where they can do the most good.
I also comment on the recent call for a "positive"
social science. To paraphrase Seligman (1998), psychology
should be as focused on strength as on weakness, as inter-

O ver the years, optimism has had at best a check-

I ered reputation. From Voltaire's (1759) Dr. Pan-
gloss, who blathered that we live in the best of
all possible worlds, to Porter's (1913) Pollyanna, who
celebrated every misfortune befalling herself and others, to
ested in resilience as in vulnerability, and as concerned
with the cultivation of wellness as with the remediation of
pathology. A close look at optimism provides some in-
sights into how to guide this redirection of psychology so
that it does justice to the mandate and avoids the "every-
politicians who compete vigorously to see who can best
thing is beautiful" approach of humanistic psychology in
spin embarrassing news into something wonderful, so-
the 1960s. A positive psychology should not hold up Dr.
called optimism has often given thoughtful people pause.
Pangloss or Pollyanna as role models.
Connotations of naivete and denial have adhered to the
notion. In recent years, however, optimism has become a What Is Optimism?
more respectable stance, even among the sophisticated. A useful definition of optimism was offered by anthropol-
Research by a number of psychologists has docu- ogist Lionel Tiger (1979): "a mood or attitude associated
mented diverse benefits of optimism and concomitant with an expectation about the social or material future--
drawbacks of pessimism. Optimism, conceptualized and one which the evaluator regards as socially desirable, to his
assessed in a variety of ways, has been linked to positive [or her] advantage, or for his [or her] pleasure" (p. 18). An
mood and good morale; to perseverance and effective prob- important implication of this definition, one drawn out by
lem solving; to academic, athletic, military, occupational, Tiger, is that there can be no single or objective optimism,
and political success; to popularity; to good health; and at least as characterized by its content, because what is
even to long life and freedom from trauma. Pessimism, in considered optimism depends on what the individual re-
contrast, foreshadows depression, passivity, failure, social gards as desirable. Optimism is predicated on evalua-
estrangement, morbidity, and mortality. These lines of re- t i o n - - o n given affects and emotions, as it were.
search are surprisingly uniform, so much so that an opti- Contemporary approaches usually treat optimism as a
mism bandwagon has been created, within psychology as cognitive characteristic--a goal, an expectation, or a causal
well as the general public (Gillham, in press). We see an
interest in how optimism can be encouraged among the
young and how pessimism can be reversed among the old. Lisa Bossio, Serena Chen, and Fiona Lee made helpful comments on a
The future of optimism appears rosy indeed. Or does it? previous version of this article. This work was supported in part by
I begin this article with a review of what psychologists National Institutes of Health Grant P50-HL061202-01.
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Chris-
have learned about optimism, but my eventual purpose is to topher Peterson, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, 525
discuss its future both as a research interest of psycholo- East University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-I 109. Electronic mail may be sent
gists and as a social value. I believe that these futures are to chrispet @umich.edu.

44 January 2000 * American Psychologist

Copyright 2000 by the AmericanPsychologicalAssociation,Inc. 0003-066X/00/$5.00
Vol. 55, No. I. 44 55 DOI: 10.1037//0003-066X.55.1.44
 larly when institutionalized in the form of religious beliefs
about an afterlife. However, optimism comes with a cost:
the denial of our instinctual nature and hence the denial of
reality. Religious optimism compensates people for the
sacrifices necessary for civilization and is at the core of
what Freud termed the universal obsessional neurosis of
humanity.
Freud proposed that optimism is part of human nature
but only as a derivative of the conflict between instincts and
socialization. He thought some individuals--Freud men-
tioned the educated and in particular neurologists--did not
need the illusion of optimism, although the masses were
best left with their "neurosis" intact and the belief that God
was a benevolent father who would shepherd them through
life and beyond. Only with this belief and its associated
fear that God would retaliate against them if they trans-
gressed would people be law-abiding. According to Freud,
a rational prohibition against murder is not compelling to
the masses. It is more persuasive to assert that the prohi-
Christopher bition comes directly from God.
Peterson As psychodynamic ideas became popular, Freud's for-
Photograph by
Christopher Peterson mula equating (religious) optimism and illusion had wide-
spread impact. Although no mental health professional
asserted that extreme pessimism should be the standard of
health--pessimism of this sort was presumably due to
attribution--which is sensible so long as we remember that fixation at an early psychosexual stage--most theorists
the belief in question concerns future occurrences about pointed to the accurate perception of reality as the epitome
which individuals have strong feelings. Optimism is not of good psychological functioning: "The perception of
simply cold cognition, and if we forget the emotional flavor reality is called mentally healthy when what the individual
that pervades optimism, we can make little sense of the fact sees corresponds to what is actually there" (Jahoda, 1958,
that optimism is both motivated and motivating. Indeed, p. 6). Similar statements were offered by the entire gamut
people may well need to feel optimistic about matters. We of influential psychologists and psychiatrists from the
should not be surprised that optimism and pessimism can 1930s through the 1960s: Allport, Erikson, Fromm,
have defensive aspects as well as ego-enhancing ones (cf. Maslow, Menninger, and Rogers, among many others (see
Norem & Cantor, 1986). Snyder, 1988, and Taylor, 1989, for thorough reviews).
Along these lines, we can ask whether people can be Never mind that one cannot know what is "actually
generically optimistic, that is, hopeful without specific ex- there" in the future until it happens, and never mind that
pectations. Although at odds with conventional definitions, Freud in the first place acknowledged that an illusory belief
the possibility of free-floating optimism deserves scrutiny. was not necessarily a false one. "Reality testing" became
Some people readily describe themselves as optimistic yet the defining feature of the healthy individual, and psycho-
fail to endorse expectations consistent with this view of therapists took as their task the need to expose people to
themselves. This phenomenon may merely be a style of reality, however painful it might be. Only the most modest
self-presentation, but it may additionally reflect the emo- expectations about the future could pass muster as realistic,
tional and motivational aspects of optimism without any of and anything else was regarded as denial (cf. Akhtar,
the cognitive aspects. Perhaps extraversion is related to this 1996).
cognitively shorn version of optimism. Matters began to change in the 1960s and 1970s in
light of research evidence showing that most people are not
Optimism as Human Nature strictly realistic or accurate in how they think. Cognitive
Discussions of optimism take two forms. In the first, it is psychologists documented an array of shortcuts that people
posited to be an inherent part of human nature, to be either take ',as they process information. Margaret Marlin and
praised or decried. Early approaches to optimism as human David Stang (1978) surveyed hundreds of studies showing
nature were decidedly negative. Writers as diverse as Soph- that language, memory, and thought are selectively posi-
ocles and Nietzsche argued that optimism prolongs human tive. For example, people use more positive words than
suffering: It is better to face the hard facts of reality. This negative words, whether speaking or writing. In free recall,
negative view of positive thinking lies at the heart of people produce positive memories sooner than negative
Freud's influential writings on the subject. ones. Most people evaluate themselves positively, and
In The Future o f an Illusion, Freud (1928) decided in particular more positively than they evaluate others.
that optimism was widespread but illusory. According to Apparently, in our minds, we are all children of Lake
Freud, optimism helps make civilization possible, particu- Wobegon, all of whom are above average.

January 2000 • American Psychologist 45

 The skeptical advocate of a harsh reality could dismiss The strongest statement that optimism is an inherent
findings like these as demonstrating little except how wide- aspect of human nature is found in Tiger's (1979) book
spread optimistic illusions are, but it proved more difficult Optimism: The Biology of Hope. He located optimism in
to dismiss results showing that psychologically healthy the biology of our species and argued that it is one of our
people in particular showed the positivity bias. Richard most defining and adaptive characteristics. Tiger proposed
Lazarus (1983) described what he called positive denial that optimism is an integral part of human nature, selected
and showed that it can be associated with well-being in the for in the course of evolution, that is developing along with
wake of adversity. Aaron Beck (1967) began to develop his our cognitive abilities and indeed the human capacity for
influential cognitive approach to depression and its treat- culture.
ment, a cornerstone of which was the assertion that depres- Tiger even speculated that optimism drove human
sion was a cognitive disorder characterized by negative evolution. Because optimism entails thinking about the
views about the self, experience, and the future--that is, by future, it first appeared when people began to think ahead.
pessimism and hopelessness. Once people began anticipating the future, they could
Early in the course of his theory development, Beck imagine dire consequences, including their own mortality.
was still influenced by the prevailing view of mental health Something had to develop to counteract the fear and pa-
as grounded in the facts of the matter, because he described ralysis that these thoughts might entail, and that something
people with depression as illogical. By implication, people was optimism. By this view, optimism is inherent in the
who are not depressed are logical--that is, rational infor- makeup of people, not a derivative of some other psycho-
mation processors--although there was no good reason for logical characteristic. Tiger went on to characterize opti-
this assumption. Part of cognitive therapy is designing mism as easy to think, easy to learn, and pleasing--what
experiments to test negative views, but Beck's procedures modern evolutionary psychologists describe as an evolved
are geared toward guaranteeing the results of these exper- psychological mechanism (Buss, 1991).
iments, and cognitive therapists never attempt to falsify the O p t i m i s m as a n I n d i v i d u a l Difference
occasionally positive view that a person with depression
At the same time optimism as human nature was being
might bring to therapy (Beck, Rush, Shaw, & Emery,
discussed in positive terms by theorists like Lazarus, Beck,
1979). In any event, Beck (1991 ) more recently backed off
Taylor, and Tiger, other psychologists who were interested
from this view of people who are not depressed being
in individual differences began to address optimism as a
logical to allow that they can bring a positive bias toward
characteristic people possess to varying degrees. These two
their ongoing experience and expectations for the future.
approaches are compatible. Our human nature provides a
Anthony Greenwald's (1980) statement likening hu-
baseline optimism, of which individuals show more versus
man nature to a totalitarian regime was another turning
less: "In dealing with natural systems the shortest analytical
point in how optimism was regarded by psychologists. distance between two points is a normal curve" (Tiger,
According to Greenwald, the self can be regarded as an 1979, p. 162). Our experiences influence the degree to
organization of knowledge about one's history and identity. which we are optimistic or pessimistic.
This organization is biased by information-control strate- There are numerous treatments of optimism as an
gies analogous to those used by totalitarian political re- individual difference. A definitive history of their anteced-
gimes. Everyone engages in an ongoing process of fabri- ents is beyond the scope of this article (see Peterson &
cating and revising his or her own personal history. The Park, 1998, for a more thorough discussion), but certainly
story each of us tells about ourselves is necessarily ego- we should acknowledge several intellectual precursors,
centric: Each of us is the central figure in our own narra- starting with Alfred Adler's (1910/1964, 1927) fictional
tives. Each of us takes credit for good events and eschews finalism, based on Vaihinger's (1911) "as-if' philosophy.
responsibility for bad events. Each of us resists changes in Kurt Lewin's (1935, 1951) field theory and George Kelly's
how we think. In sum, the ego maintains itself in the most (1955) personal construct theory provided influential
self-flattering way possible, and it has at its disposal all of frameworks for understanding how beliefs--optimistic,
the psychological mechanisms documented by Matlin and pessimistic, o1 somewhere in between--channeled peo-
Stang (1978). ple's behavior. Julian Rotter's (1954, 1966) social learning
Another turning point in the view of optimism was theory and especially his generalized expectations (locus of
Shelley Taylor and Jonathan Brown's (1988) literature control and trust) legitimized an approach to personality in
review of research on positive illusions. They described a terms of broad expectancies about the future.
variety of studies showing that people are biased toward the Also important in leading to psychology's interest in
positive and that the only exceptions to this rule are indi- optimism as an individual difference was the waning of
viduals who are anxious or depressed. Taylor (1989) elab- traditional stimulus-response (S-R) approaches to learning
orated on these ideas in her book Positive Illusions, where and their replacement with cognitive accounts emphasizing
she proposed that people's pervasive tendency to see them- expectancies (Peterson, Maier, & Seligman, 1993). Ac-
selves in the best possible light is a sign of well-being. She cording to S-R accounts, learning entails the acquisition of
distinguished optimism as an illusion from optimism as a particular motor responses in particular situations. Learn-
delusion: Illusions are responsive, albeit reluctantly, to ing by this view entails the forging of associations between
reality, whereas delusions are not. stimuli and responses, and the more closely these are linked

46 January 2000 • American Psychologist

together in experience (contiguity), the more likely learn- desirable values. To them, virtually all realms of human
ing is to occur. Under the sway of behaviorism, learning activity can be cast in goal terms, and people's behavior
was thought to have no central (cognitive) representation. entails the identification and adoption of goals and the
Used in arguments against S-R views of learning were regulation of actions vis-h-vis these goals. Therefore, they
findings that the associations acquired in conditioning are refer 1:o their approach as a self-regulatory model (Carver &
strengthened not by contiguity per se but by contingency: Scheier, 1981).
the degree to which stimuli provide new information about Optimism enters into self-regulation when people ask
responses (Rescorla, 1968). S-R theory stresses only tem- themselves about impediments to achieving the goals they
poral contiguity between the response and the reinforcer, have adopted. In the face of difficulties, do people none-
viewing the individual as trapped by the momentary co- theless believe that goals can be achieved? If so, they are
occurrences of events. If a response is followed by a optimistic: if not, they are pessimistic. Optimism leads to
reinforcer, it is strengthened even if there is no real (causal) continued efforts to attain the goal, whereas pessimism
relationship between them. In contrast, the contingency leads to giving up.
view of learning proposes that individuals are able to detect Scheier and Carver (1985) measured optimism (vs.
cause-effect relationships, separating momentary non- pessimism) with a brief self-report questionnaire called the
causal relationships from more enduring true ones (Was- Life Orientation Test (LOT). Representative items from
serman & Miller, 1997). this test, with which respondents agree or disagree, include
So, learning at its essence entails the discovery of the following:
"what leads to what" (Tolman, 1932). Because learning of ]1. In uncertain times, I usually expect the best.
this sort necessarily extends over time, it is sensible to view 2. If something can go wrong for me it will. [reverse-
it in central (cognitive) terms. Although there is disagree- scored]
ment about the fine detail of these central representations, Positive expectations are usually combined with (reverse-
it is clear that contingency learning is a critically important scored) negative expectations, and the resulting measure is
psychological process linked to subsequent motivation, investigated with respect to health, happiness, and coping
cognition, and emotion. Most theorists in this tradition have with adversity (e.g., Carver et al., 1993; Scheier & Carver,
opted to regard the representation of contingency learning 1987; Scheier et al., 1989; Strack, Carver, & Blaney, 1987).
as an expectation to explain how it is generalized across Results show that dispositional optimism is linked to de-
situations and projected across time. As explained later, sirable outcomes and in particular to active and effective
most approaches to optimism as an individual difference coping (Scheier, Weintraub, & Carver, 1986).
adopt this approach, in which optimism is regarded as a Explanatory style, Martin E. P. Seligman and
generalized expectation that influences any and all psycho- his colleagues have approached optimism in terms of an
logical processes in which learning is involved. individual's characteristic explanatory style: how he or she
I briefly survey several of the currently popular ap- explains the causes of bad events (Buchanan & Seligman,
proaches to optimism as an individual difference. It is no 1995). Those who explain bad events in a circumscribed
coincidence that each has an associated self-report ques- way, with external, unstable, and specific causes, are de-
tionnaire measure that lends itself to efficient research. The scribed as optimistic, whereas those who favor internal,
correlates of these cognates of optimism have therefore stable',, and global causes are described as pessimistic.
been extensively investigated. Research is uniform in The notion of explanatory style emerged from the
showing that optimism, however it is measured, is linked to attributional reformulation of the learned helplessness
desirable characteristics: happiness, perseverance, achieve- model (Abramson, Seligman, & Teasdale, 1978). Briefly,
ment, and health. the original learned helplessness model proposed that after
Most studies have been cross-sectional, but the dem- experiencing uncontrollable aversive events, animals and
onstrated correlates are usually interpreted as consequences people become helpless--passive and unresponsive--pre-
of optimism. Relatively little attention has been paid to the sumably because they have "learned" that there is no con-
origins of this individual difference and in particular to the tingency between actions and outcomes (Maier & Selig-
distinct possibility that its putative outcomes are alterna- man, 1976). This learning is represented as a generalized
tively or additionally its determinants. Relatively little at- expectancy that future outcomes will be unrelated to ac-
tention has been paid to the larger web of belief in which tions. It is this generalized expectation of response-out-
optimism resides (Quine & Ullian, 1978). Further, rela- come independence that produces later helplessness.
tively little attention has been paid to why optimism has Explanatory style was added to the helplessness model
such a wide array of correlates. Indeed, optimism is what I to better account for the boundary conditions of human
call a Velcro construct, to which everything sticks for helplessness following uncontrollability. When is helpless-
reasons that are not always obvious. ness general, and when is it circumscribed? People who
Dispositional optimism. Michael Scheier and encounter a bad event ask "why?" Their causal attribution
Charles Carver (1992) have studied a personality variable determines how they respond to the event. If it is a stable
~they identify as dispositional optimism: the global expec- (long-lasting) cause, helplessness is thought to be chronic.
tation that good things will be plentiful in the future and If it i:~ a pervasive (global) cause, helplessness is thought to
bad things, scarce. Scheier and Carver's overriding per- be widespread. If it is an internal cause, self-esteem is
spective is in terms of how people pursue goals, defined as thought to suffer.

January 2000 • American Psychologist 47

 All things being equal, people have a habitual way of although he could have called it mastery, effectance, or
explaining bad events--an explanatory style--and this ex- control. His terminology is justified by the central concern
planatory style is posited to be a distal influence on help- in helplessness theory with expectations, but it is worth
lessness following adversity (Peterson & Seligman, 1984). emphasizing yet again that these expectations tend not to be
Explanatory style is typically measured with a self-report explicitly studied.
questionnaire called the Attributional Style Questionnaire Peterson, Maier, and Seligman (1993) asserted that
(ASQ), which presents respondents with hypothetical everything learned about helplessness (pessimism) informs
events involving themselves and asks them to provide "the what we know about optimism, but this statement is glib.
one major cause" of each event if it were to happen to them Optimism is not simply the absence of pessimism, and
(Peterson, Semmel, von Baeyer, Abramson, Metalsky, & well-being is not simply the absence of helplessness. Re-
Seligman, 1982). The respondents then rate these provided search on learned optimism (i.e., optimistic explanatory
causes along dimensions of internality, stability, and glob- style) will not be as substantial as it might be if it remains
ality. Ratings are combined, although bad-event ratings and focused on the constructs of original interest to helpless-
good-event ratings are kept separate. Explanatory style ness theory. I return to this point later in this article.
based on bad events is usually independent of explanatory On one level, the Scheier and Carver approach is
style for good events. Explanatory style based on bad congruent with the Seligman approach. LOT correlates and
events usually has more robust correlates than explanatory ASQ/CAVE correlates are strikingly similar, and measures
style based on good events, although correlations are typ- of the two constructs tend to converge when they a r e - -
ically in the opposite directions (Peterson, 1991). rarely--examined together in the same study. However, a
A second way of measuring explanatory style is with closer look reveals some critical differences. The LOT is a
a content analysis procedure--the Content Analysis of pure measure of expectation, very close to the dictionary
Verbatim Explanations (CAVE)--that allows written or definitions of optimism and pessimism. An optimistic ex-
spoken material to be scored for naturally occurring causal pectation leads to the belief that goals can be achieved,
explanations (Peterson, Schulman, Castellon, & Seligman, although it is neutral with respect to how this will happen.
1992). Researchers identify explanations for bad events, In contrast, the ASQ measure reflects causality, so it is
"extract" them, and present them to judges who rate them additionally influenced by people's beliefs about how goals
along the scales of the ASQ. The CAVE technique makes are brought about. Said another way, optimistic explana-
possible after-the-fact longitudinal studies, so long as spo- tory style is more infused with agency than is dispositional
ken or written material can be located from early in the optimism.
lives of the individuals for whom long-term outcomes of Hope, These two visions of optimism--expecta-
interest are known. tion and agency--are integrated in a third approach, C.
Remember that the generalized expectation of re- Rick Snyder's (1994) ongoing studies of hope. Snyder
sponse-outcome independence is hypothesized as being traced the origins of his thinking to earlier work by Averill,
the proximal cause of helplessness, even though research in Catlin, and Chon (1990) and Stotland (1969), in which
this tradition has rarely looked at this mediating variable. hope was cast in terms of people's expectations that goals
Rather, researchers measure explanatory style and correlate could be achieved. According to Snyder's view, goal-
it with outcomes thought to revolve around helplessness: directed expectations are composed of two separable com-
depression, illness, and failure in academic, athletic, and ponents. The first is agency, and it reflects someone's
vocational realms. Invariably, an optimistic explanatory determination that goals can be achieved. The second is
style is associated with good outcomes (Peterson & Park, identified as pathways: the individual's beliefs that success-
1998). ful plans can be generated to reach goals. The second
As explanatory style research has progressed and the- component is Snyder's novel contribution, not found in
ory has been modified, the internality dimension has be- other formulations of optimism as an individual difference.
come of less interest. It has more inconsistent correlates Hope so defined is measured with a brief self-report
than do stability or globality, it is less reliably assessed, and scale (Snyder et al., 1996). Representative items, with
there are theoretical grounds for doubting that it has a direct which respondents agree or disagree, include the following:
impact on expectations per se (Peterson, 1991). Indeed, I. I energetically pursue my goals. [agency]
internality may well conflate self-blame and self-efficacy, 2. There are lots of ways around any problem. [path-
which would explain why it fares poorly in empirical ways]
research. In a modification of the helplessness reformula- Responses to items are combined by averaging. Scores
tion, Abramson, Metalsky, and Alloy (1989) emphasized have been examined with respect to goal expectancies,
only stability and globality. perceived control, self-esteem, positive emotions, coping,
The most important recent chapter in helplessness and achievement, with results as expected (e.g., Curry,
research was the reframing of explanatory style by Selig- Snyder, Cook, Ruby, & Rehm, 1997; Irving, Snyder, &
man (1991) in his book Learned Optimism, in which he Crowson, 1998).
described how his lifelong interest in what can go wrong
with people changed into an interest in what can go right
Issues in Optimism
(cf. Seligman, 1975). Research on helplessness was trans- Let me turn to the future of optimism and focus on issues
formed into an interest in what Seligman called optimism, that deserve attention, by both psychologists and citizens in

48 January 2000 • American Psychologist

general. I also draw out some of the implications of these causal explanations for concrete events. Studies to date
issues for how we might conduct positive social science. have rarely included more than one optimism measure at a
To set the stage for this discussion, I introduce a distinction time, and those that do are conducted by researchers more
between two types of optimism (Tiger, 1979). interested in how measures converge than with the possi-
bility that they have different patterns of correlates. The
Little Optimism Versus Big Optimism big-versus-little optimism distinction may provide a way of
Little optimism subsumes specific expectations about pos- thinking about such differences if they indeed emerge.
itive outcomes: for example, "I will find a convenient
parking space this evening." Big optimism refers t o - -
Again, What Is Optimism?
obviously-larger and less specific expectations: for exam- In addition to the big-versus-little optimism distinction,
ple, "Our nation is on the verge of something great." The there are some other definitional issues that need to be
big-versus-little optimism distinction reminds us that opti- addressed by psychologists. Let me repeat that optimism is
mism can be described at different levels of abstraction not just a cognitive characteristic: It has inherent emotional
and, further, that optimism may function differently de- and motivational components (cf. Carver & Scheier, 1990).
pending on the level. Big optimism may be a biologically Researchers often seem to regard emotion and motivation
given tendency filled in by culture with a socially accept- as outcomes that are separate from optimism per se. At
able content; it leads to desirable outcomes because it least in the case of big optimism, this assumption may not
produces a general state of vigor and resilience. In contrast, be warranted.
little optimism may be the product of an idiosyncratic We ask different questions if we see emotion and
learning history; it leads to desirable outcomes because it motivation as part of big optimism. How does optimism
predisposes specific actions that are adaptive in concrete feel? Is it happiness, joy, hypomania, or simply content-
situations. ment? Is the optimistic person experiencing flow: actively
Said another way, the mechanisms linking optimism engaging in what he or she is doing while not self-con-
to outcomes may vary according to the type of optimism in sciously mindful (Csikszentmihalyi, 1990)? Fredrickson
focus. For example, one of the striking correlates of opti- (1998) argued that positive emotions, neglected by psy-
mism is good health (e.g., Peterson, 1988; Peterson, Selig- chologists relative to negative emotions, broaden the per-
man, & Vaillant, 1988; Scheier & Carver, 1987, 1992). son's cognitive and behavioral repertoire. Is this true as
This link seems to reflect several different pathways, in- well for big optimism? We know that optimism is linked to
cluding immunological robustness (Kamen-Siegel, Rodin, perseverance, but is it associated as well with a good choice
Seligman, & Dwyer, 1991; Scheier et al., 1999; Seger- of goals, those that lend themselves to pursuit and eventual
strom, Taylor, Kemeny, & Fahey, 1998: Udelman, 1982), attainmenl? As R. M. Ryan, Sheldon, Kasser, and Deci
absence of negative mood (Weisse, 1992), and health- (1996) discussed, not all goals are of equal merit for
promoting behavior (Peterson, Seligman, Yurko, Martin, & individuals, given their particular psychological makeup
Friedman, 1998). The big-versus-little optimism distinction and context. Is optimism therefore associated with the
may help us understand which pathways are involved in choice of goals that facilitate authenticity in this sense?
given instances of well-being (Peterson & Bossio, 1991). Carver, Reynolds, and Scheier (1994) have begun to inves-
The trajectory of a severe illness such as AIDS or cancer tigate these sorts of questions by ascertaining the possible
may be better predicted by big optimism working through selves of optimists and pessimists.
the immune system and mood, whereas the onset of disease There are probably activities that satisfy a person's
and the likelihood of traumatic injuries may be more in- need to be optimistic hut are ultimately pointless, the
fluenced by little optimism working through behavior and psychological equivalent of junk food. Are video games,
concrete lifestyle choices (Peterson, Moon, et al., 1998). the World Wide Web, mystery novels, gambling, and col-
What exactly is the relationship between little and big lections of thimbles or matchbooks (or journal article re-
optimism? Empirically, the two are no doubt correlated, but prints we never read) analogous to empty calories, activi-
it is possible to imagine someone who is a little optimist but ties whose pursuit consumes time and energy because they
a big pessimist, or vice versa. It is also possible to imagine engage optimism but eventually leave us with nothing to
situations in which big optimism has desirable conse- show, individually or collectively?
quences but little optimism does not, or vice versa. The
determinants of the two may be different, and ways of
Optimism and Pessimism
encouraging them may therefore require different Another definitional issue has to do with the relationship
strategies. between optimism and pessimism. They are usually re-
Researchers need to approach the big-versus-little op- garded as mutually exclusive, but surprisingly there is
timism distinction more deliberately. On the face of it, the evidence that they are not. For example, the optimism and
dispositional optimism measure of Scheier and Carver pessimism items in Scheier and Carver's (1985) LOT prove
(1985) and the hope measure of Snyder et al. (1996) tap big somewhal independent of one another. This lack of corre-
optimism because they ask people to respond to general- lation can be regarded as a methodological nuisance, but it
izations about the future. In contrast, measures of explan- is worth considering the possibility that some people expect
atory style--especially the CAVE technique--seem to get both good things and bad things to be plentiful. Such
at a smaller optimism because the focus is on specific individuals could be described as having hedonically rich

January 2000 • American Psychologist 49

 expectations as opposed to misbehaving on a questionnaire. If the test tasks are changed, however, prior experi-
Are they living life fully, or are they ambivalent and ence with controllable events does have a demonstrable
confused? Distinguishing between optimism and pessi- effect: enhanced persistence at a difficult or unsolvable
mism allows an intriguing question to be investigated: Are task. Theorists have discussed this opposite manifestation
there effects of optimism above and beyond those of the of learned helplessness under such rubrics as learned hope-
absence of pessimism (Robinson-Whelen, Kim, MacCal- fulness, learned industriousness, learned mastery, learned
lum, & Kiecolt-Glaser, 1997)? relevance, and learned resourcefulness (e.g., Eisenberger,
Along these lines, as already noted, explanatory style 1992; Mackintosh, 1975; Rosenbaum & Jaffe, 1983; Vol-
derived from attributions about bad events is usually inde- picelli, Ulm, Altenor, & Seligman, 1983; Zimmerman,
pendent of explanatory style based on attributions about 1990). Outcome measures have to allow the benefit to be
good events. The former is usually identified as "the" manifest.
optimistic explanatory style, in part because the correlates In choosing appropriate measures, it would be instruc-
are stronger, but a step back reveals this treatment is tive for optimism researchers to turn to the literature on
curious. Attributions about bad events (presumably linked resilience (Anthony & Cohler, 1987). Here we see an
to expectations about such events) are identified as opti- interest in children growing up in dire circumstances who
mistic or pessimistic, whereas attributions about good not only survive but thrive. Their resilience is only evident
events are not. One would think it should be just the if we choose measures that reflect thriving. Resilience
opposite, a point made by Snyder (1995) when he de- depends critically on a supportive relationship with another
scribed explanatory style as a strategy of excuse making. person. Could the same be true of optimism in the face of
This criticism is blunted--but only somewhat--when in- adversity? Much of the optimism literature is curiously
ternality-externality is removed from the meaning of the asocial. Researchers do not even distinguish between pri-
construct. vate versus public (socially communicated) optimism,
The concern of helplessness theorists with attributions which would seem to be an important distinction. Emphasis
about bad events is explained by the outcomes of historical is quite individualistic, but optimism may be as much an
interest: depression, failure, and illness. Optimism is cor- interpersonal characteristic as an individual one. l
related with their absence, and pessimism, with their pres-
ence. Explanatory style research has led to increased un- The Reality Basis of Optimism
derstanding of these problematic states. However, one must
One more important issue is the relationship of optimism to
appreciate that the zero point of these typical outcome
reality. Optimism can have costs if it is too unrealistic.
.measures signifies, respectively, n o t being depressed, n o t
Consider unrealistic optimism as described by Weinstein
failing, and n o t being ill. If we want to extend findings past
(1989) with respect to people's perception of personal risk
these zero points to offer conclusions about emotional
for illnesses and mishaps. When people are asked to pro-
fulfillment, achievement, and wellness, we may or may not
vide a percentage estimate of the likelihood, in comparison
be on firm ground. Perhaps explanatory style based on
with peers, that they will someday experience an illness or
attributions about good events would then be more rele-
injury, most underestimate their risks. The average indi-
vant. In any event, researchers of positive social science
vidual sees himself or herself as below average in risk for
need to study not just independent variables that pertain to
a variety of maladies, which of course cannot be.
strength but also appropriate dependent variables.
This phenomenon is appropriately lamented because it
Psychological well-being cannot be simply the ab-
may lead people to neglect the basics of health promotion
sence of distress and conflict, any more than physical
and maintenance. More generally, optimism in the form of
health is the absence of disease. Discussions of what well-
wishful thinking can distract people from making concrete
being entails are ongoing in various research and theoret-
plans about how to attain goals (Oettingen, 1996). Unre-
ical literatures (e.g., Barsky, 1988; Seeman, 1989), but lenting optimism precludes the caution, sobriety, and con-
these have not yet been incorporated into the lines of
serwttion of resources that accompany sadness as a normal
inquiry concerned with optimism. I recommend that this and presumably adaptive response to disappointment and
incorporation take place, and I speculate that big optimism setback (Nesse & Williams, 1996).
might be a more potent influence on well-being than is little
For another example, consider the personality variable
optimism. of John Henryism (James, Hartnett, & Kalsbeek, 1983;
In the typical demonstration of learned helplessness, James, LaCroix, Kleinbaum, & Strogatz, 1984). Inspired
animals or people exposed to aversive events they cannot
by the railroad worker of folklore, who won a contest
control show deficits in problem solving relative to re- against a steam hammer but died thereafter of a heart
search participants exposed to aversive events they can
control as well as participants given no prior experience
with aversive events; these latter two groups do not differ Consider the helping alliance in psychotherapy,which many theorists
from one another (Peterson, Maier, & Seligman, 1993). agree is a necessary condition for any form of treatment to succeed (Frank,
Prior experience with controllable events confers no appar- 1978). One way to look at the helping alliance is in terms of shared
expectations for treatment and its outcome. To the degree that both parties
ent benefit. Perhaps this is because the baseline assumption believe therapy will be helpful, it is likely to continue to and indeed be
is that control exists, or, to say it another way, individuals helpful (Priebe & Gruyters, 1993; Tryon & Kane, 1990). In other words,
are optimistic unless there is a reason not to be. the helping alliance revolves around a dyad-level optimism.

50 January 2000 • American Psychologist

attack, this individual difference reflects the degree to young? Here the research by Seligman and his col-
which African Americans believe that they can control all leagues is instructive. Gillham, Reivich, Jaycox, and
events in their lives solely through hard work and deter- Seligrnan (1995) have begun an intervention p r o g r a m
mination. Individuals who score high on the John Henry- using strategies from the c o g n i t i v e - b e h a v i o r a l therapy
ism measure but are low in socioeconomic status are apt to realm to teach grade school children to be more opti-
be hypertensive (James, Strogatz, Wing, & Ramsey, 1987). mistic. Results to date suggest that o p t i m i s m training o f
Constant striving for control over events without the this sort makes subsequent episodes of depression less
resources to achieve it can take a toll on the individual who likely. I point out again that the absence of depression
faces an objective limit to what can be attained regardless should not be the only outcome that interests positive
of how hard he or she works. If optimism is to survive as social scientists. W e also want to know if optimistic
a social virtue, then the world must have a causal texture children end up h a p p y and healthy, with rich social
that allows this stance to produce rewards. If not, people networks and r e w a r d i n g pursuits.
will channel their efforts into unattainable goals and be- If big o p t i m i s m is truly part of human nature, then
come exhausted, ill, and demoralized. Alternatively, people we need Io be concerned with s o m e w h a t different mat-
may rechannel their inherent optimism into other goals. ters. First, how can o p t i m i s m be c h a n n e l e d in one direc-
Positive social science should not become so focused tion rather than another? As will be discussed shortly,
on optimism as a psychological characteristic that it ignores o p t i m i s m in the United States has long been entwined
how it is influenced by external situations, including other with individualism. Is there any way to harness our
people. This danger is easiest to see in the case of little inherent o p t i m i s m to a concern with the c o m m o n s ? Can
optimism, where we can easily decide that a given belief is o p t i m i s m about o n e ' s n e i g h b o r be made as satisfying as
wrong. It is less easy to see in the case of big optimism, but o p t i m i s m about oneself?
even here we can use the broader vantage of history or Religion can provide some answers. Indeed, Tiger
aggregate data to realize that some widely shared big goals (1979) argued that religions arose at least in part to tap the
are just as unrealistic as the expectation that one will lead biologically given need of people to be optimistic. Reli-
a life free of specific illnesses and injuries. gious thought lends itself particularly well to big optimism
The resolution is that people should be optimistic because of its certainty. Tiger observed, much as Freud
when the future can be changed by positive thinking but not (1928) did decades earlier, that religion is more amenable
otherwise, adopting what Seligman (1991) called a flexible to optimism than is science, which is explicitly tentative
or complex optimism, a psychological strategy to be exer- and probabilistic in its pronouncements.
cised when appropriate as opposed to a reflex or habit over Secular social scientists interested in o p t i m i s m of-
which we have no control: ten ignore the close link between o p t i m i s m and religion,
with the exception o f an investigation by Sethi and
You can choose to use optimism when you judge that less de- S e l i g m a n (1993) in which they studied the causal expla-
pression, or more achievement, or better health is the issue. But
nations contained in religious texts. Across Christian,
you can also choose not to use it, when you judge that clear sight
or owning up is called for. Learning optimism does not erode your Jewish, and M u s l i m texts, conservative tracts were more
sense of values or your judgment. Rather it frees you to . . . optimistic than were liberal ones. Can we generalize
achieve the goals you set . . . . Optimism's benefits are not un- from this result, j u x t a p o s e it with research on the bene-
bounded. Pessimism has a role to play, both in society at large and fits of optimism, and conclude that fundamentalists are
in our own lives; we must have the courage to endure pessimism better off than their reformed colleagues? This possibil-
when its perspective is valuable (p. 292). ity is worthy of investigation, and researchers have to be
I
willing to follow the data w h e r e v e r they might lead
Particularly in the case of little optimism, people need to
undertake a cost-benefit analysis of the belief in question. (Schumaker, 1992).
Second, how can we prevent o p t i m i s m from being
W h e n there is r o o m for doubt, people should fill the
thwarted,? Here there is no mystery. Stress and trauma of
gap with hope. Big o p t i m i s m can be more hopeful than
all sorts take their toll on optimism, and to the degree
little optimism, which has a greater press to be accurate.
that people can lead less terrible lives, o p t i m i s m should
I assume big and little o p t i m i s m are redundant for many
be served. W e do not want to create a life without
people. P s y c h o l o g i s t s should think about how to help
challenge, because perseverance can only be e n c o u r a g e d
people d i s a g g r e g a t e the two in a useful way, to teach
when people meet and surmount difficulties, but we do
them how to have dreams but not f a n t a s i e s - - i l l u s i o n s
need to be sure that the difficulties can be eventually
without delusions. The prior question, of course, is, what
surmounled.
other p s y c h o l o g i c a l characteristics need to be in place
Also contributing to o p t i m i s m is social learning. I
for an individual to be flexible in the use of his or her
assume o p t i m i s m can be acquired by m o d e l i n g - - v i c a r -
optimism?
iously, as it w e r e - - s o we need to be attentive to the
The Cultivation of Optimism messages our children receive about the world and how
Despite the cautions just raised, there is abundant reason it works. E x p l a n a t o r y styles of parents and children
to b e l i e v e that o p t i m i s m - - b i g , little, and in b e t w e e n - - i s converge, and although part o f the reason for this m a y be
useful to a person because positive expectations can be shared experiences or genetic predispositions, it could
self-fulfilling. H o w can we set o p t i m i s m in place for the also reflect the wholesale transmittal of b e l i e f systems

January 2000 • American Psychologist 51

 by m o d e l i n g ( S e l i g m a n et al., 1984). A l s o consider & Seligman, 1997). Here is another fruitful topic for re-
m e s s a g e s from the popular media, which are as m i x e d searchers and members of a given society to examine:
vis-?a-vis o p t i m i s m as they are on any other subject. What are the goals that a society holds up as most desir-
Rags-to-riches s t o r i e s - - u n r e a l i s t i c parables suggesting able, and how optimistic are members of that society vis-
that anything and everything wonderful is p o s s i b l e - - a r e ~-vis those goals?
j u x t a p o s e d on the evening news with stories about the In the United States, the biggest goals we have as a
horrors that lurk around every corner (Levine, 1977). people include individual choices, individual rights, and
Third, what can we do to rekindle optimism that has individual fulfillment. Americans are greatly occupied with
been thwarted? W e know from Seligman et at.'s (1988) what they can and cannot accomplish in their everyday
research that cognitive therapy as developed by Aaron lives, in particular with what they can acquire. In a capi-
Beck effectively targets pessimistic explanatory style in talist society, people's acquisition of material goods and
such a way that depression is alleviated and its recurrence their concomitant fascination with the money that allows
is prevented. Again, studies like this need to be enriched by them to do so represent a socially sanctioned way of
additional outcome measures. Does cognitive therapy satisfying the optimistic force that organizes the entire
merely return the person to a nondepressed mode, or does culture. The downside of optimism satisfied in this way is
it further enrich the individual? Does it affect big optimism the encouragement of greed.
as much as it does little optimism? Shallow materialism results. In the United States to-
The human potential movement began in the 1960s, day, we even see people turning themselves into commod-
when therapy techniques used for distressed people were ities. We want to be marketable, to keep our options open,
used with the normal in an attempt to make them super- and to cash in on what happens to us, especially misfor-
normal (Tomkins, 1976). Whether this succeeded is debat- tunes. "Because it will look good on my r6sum6" is a
able, but is there some equivalent here with respect to rationale I hear increasingly often from my students as an
optimism training? What happens when c o g n i t i v e - b e h a v - explanation for why they are pursuing some seemingly
ioral therapy is used with nonpessimistic people? Do su- selfless and good activity. No wonder people are alienated,
peroptimists result, and what are they like? Are they the and no wonder depression is on the rise among young
epitome of well-being or caricatures of positive thinking adults (Robins et al., 1984).
like Dr. Pangloss and Pollyanna?
However, only the crassness of this rationale is new.
Optimism and Society There has long been a tradition in the United States of
"self-help" books promising people success if they only
Do cultures or historical eras differ in their characteristic
think positively (Starker, 1989). As emphasized, though,
o p t i m i s m ? The answer is p r o b a b l y no insofar as our
optimism need not be attached just to selfish concerns, and
focus is on big optimism. Big o p t i m i s m makes society
it need not pertain just to individual agency (Wallach &
possible, and a pessimistic civilization cannot survive
Wallach, 1983). Collective a g e n c y - - c o l l e c t i v e optimism,
for long. Indeed, societies make available to people
if you w i l l - - w o u l d seem a desirable goal to add to those
countless w a y s of satisfying their needs to be optimistic
about matters: associated with individual optimism (cf. Snyder, Cheavens,
& Sympson, 1997). A resurgence of traditional religion,
One of the recurrent themes of human culture has to do with volunteerism, or philanthropy would facilitate this change,
contests--with play which is given an effortful structure and in so long as people do not ask what is in it for them (Selig-
which some more or less entertaining activity takes place but with man, 1988).
an uncertain outcome. Countless humans affiliate with teams,
In his book The Positive Thinkers, Donald Meyer
boxers, billiard players, gymnasts, skaters, racers, runners, divers
and cheer for them to win and feel despondent when they lose . . . . (1988) traced the history of a uniquely American brand of
Contests have a great deal to do with the matter of optimism and optimism by discussing its influential proponents: Phineas
they may well be one of the commonest expressions of a way of Quimby, Mary Baker Eddy, Dale Carnegie, Norman Vin-
behaving which . . . is common anyway. Contests are usually cent Peale, and Ronald Reagan, among others:
optional . . . . Certainly no one is required to take the fan's role.
(Tiger, 1979, p. 250) The popular psychology of positive thinking.., flourished among
people able, for reasons of culture and politics, to imagine that the
Of course, many us do take on this role, and even fans of only thing wrong with their lives was within themselves. If they
the Chicago Cubs or the Boston Red Sox find a way to be could learn how to manage their own consciousness.., the world
optimistic about next season when, of course, "everything outside would prove positive in its response. Of course this world
will be different." was always that of the United States, not of mankind, but the
sense of God's abundance waiting only to be received . . . had
Virtually all societies have contests, but striking dif-
always taken for granted the greater readiness of Americans, and
ferences exist across societies in terms of most other ways
hence America, for such grace. (p. 382)
of feeling and being optimistic. As noted, the goals con-
sidered desirable will vary from person to person, group to What M e y e r identified is a very big optimism, rich and
group, culture to culture. Other than a nebulous belief in fuzzy in its meaning. Numerous other -isms adhere to
progress and some human universals like contests, there is this politically laden form of A m e r i c a n optimism, nota-
considerable variation across cultures in the content of bly capitalism, materialism, and individualism, as
optimism (e.g., Chang, 1996; Heine & Lehman, 1995; Lee discussed.

52 January 2000 ° American Psychologist

 P o s i t i v e t h i n k i n g as e x a m i n e d b y M e y e r ( 1 9 8 8 ) h a s Curry, L. A., Snyder, C. R., Cook, D. L., Ruby, B. C., & Rehm, M. (1997).
a d d i t i o n a l l y b e e n d e f i n e d b y w h a t it o p p o s e s : C a t h o l i c s , Role of hope in academic and sport achievement. Journal of Person-
ality and Social Psychology, 73, 1257-1267.
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