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BMJ Sup Mat Vacc Hoard
BMJ Sup Mat Vacc Hoard
This Sankey diagram maps the flows of publicly known, COVID-19 vaccines pre-market purchase commitments from those who have reserved them, the vaccine manufacturers supplying these doses,
the tiered pricing of these vaccine doses, and their potential recipient countries. The full interactive version can be found at https://www.ignitetheidea.org/covid-reservedvaccines. This visualization was
made using Flourish.
Notes:
1. Under a $300M grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Serum Institute of India will scale up production of 200 M vaccine doses from AstraZeneca/Oxford University for 57
COVAX AMC-eligible LMIC countries and Novavax for 92 AMC-eligible LMIC countries at a ceiling price of $3/dose or $6/course. The precise allocation of these 200 M vaccine doses
between the two firms is not yet known. For purposes of this study and the data visualization, the volume of this pre-market purchase commitment is divided equally between the two vaccine
manufacturers.
2. Two licensing agreements with the Serum Institute of India--one with AstraZeneca/Oxford University and Novavax--each carry the potential of delivering a billion doses. It has been assumed
that these doses, destined for use in low- and middle-income countries, would be made available at the ceiling price of $3 per dose, or $6 per course, set by the separate Bill and Melinda
Gates Foundation grant with the Serum Institute of India for both of these manufacturers. However, this pricing information remains to be publicly confirmed.
3. Only publicly disclosed deals are visualized in this diagram; however, the vaccine price is not always known. These are labeled as “Undisclosed Price in the third pillar of the Sankey
diagram.
4. The European Inclusive Vaccines Alliance, comprised of France, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands, has secured COVID-19 vaccines for countries in the European Union and beyond. In
this data visualization, it is assumed that its pre-market purchase commitments will go to the European Union.
1
Figure S2. Companies bringing forward COVID-19 vaccine candidates
with leading pre-market purchase commitments
This Sankey diagram maps the flows of publicly known, COVID-19 vaccines pre-market purchase commitments from companies with leading pre-market purchase commitments. The full interactive
version can be found at https://www.ignitetheidea.org/covid-reservedvaccines. This visualization was made using Flourish.
Notes:
1. Under a $300M grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Serum Institute of India will scale up production of 200 M vaccine doses from AstraZeneca/Oxford University for 57
COVAX AMC-eligible LMIC countries and Novavax for 92 AMC-eligible LMIC countries at a ceiling price of $3/dose or $6/course. The precise allocation of these 200 M vaccine doses
between the two firms is not yet known. For purposes of this study and the data visualization, the volume of this pre-market purchase commitment is divided equally between the two vaccine
manufacturers.
2. Two licensing agreements with the Serum Institute of India--one with AstraZeneca/Oxford University and Novavax--each carry the potential of delivering a billion doses. It has been assumed
that these doses, destined for use in low- and middle-income countries, would be made available at the ceiling price of $3 per dose, or $6 per course, set by the separate Bill and Melinda
Gates Foundation grant with the Serum Institute of India for both of these manufacturers. However, this pricing information remains to be publicly confirmed.
3. Only publicly disclosed deals are visualized in this diagram; however, the vaccine price is not always known. These are labeled as “Undisclosed Price in the third pillar of the Sankey
diagram.
2
Table S1. COVID-19 Vaccines: Key Characteristics of
Pre-Market Purchase Commitments
1
Undisclosed Mexican Mexico68, 61 32 million68, Landsteiner
Government68, 61 61 Scientific61
Undisclosed Uzbekistan Uzbekistan68, 35 million68, Laxisam61
Government68, 61 61 61
2
$32/course40 Canadian Canada28,42 76
Government28,42 million28,42
$32/course40 Australian Australia60 40 million60
Government60
$6/course20 -- LMICs, some 1 billion58,59 Serum Institute of
doses to India58,59
India58,59 ****
$6/course20 Gates GAVI 200 million Serum Institute of
Foundation18,19,20 COVAX split between India18,19,20
AMC AZ/Oxford
Countries18,19,2 and
0 Novavax18,19,
20
**** Both AstraZeneca/Oxford University and Novavax have signed licensing agreements to scale production of their respective vaccines
through the Serum Institute of India. Each of these licensing agreements comes to 1 billion doses. While these deals are not pre-market purchase
3
commitments signed at a specific price, these deals were included here because they are signed agreements. It has been assumed that these doses,
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5
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https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-secures-5-million-doses-of-moderna-vaccine.
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promising-vaccines.
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(mRNA-1273). Press release, August 11, 2020. Available at: https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-
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sputnik-v-vaccine-to-nepal/.
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at: https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/rdif-and-pharco-agree-to-supply-25-million-doses-of-sputnik-v-vaccine-to-egypt/.
[85] Prime Minister of Australia. Australia secures a further 50 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine. Press release, November 5, 2020. Available
at: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/australia-secures-further-50-million-doses-covid-19-vaccine.
[86] MercoPress. Chilean president pledges “sufficient and timely” access to Covid vaccines. November 9, 2020. Available at:
https://en.mercopress.com/2020/11/09/chilean-president-pledges-sufficient-and-timely-access-to-covid-vaccines.
[87] Vella, Lauren. Israel contracted to buy enough Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for 4 million people. The Hill, November 13, 2020. Available at:
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[88] Government of Peru. Pfizer y BioNTech suministrarán 9.9 millones de dosis de su vacuna candidate contra el COVID-19 al Perü. September
17, 2020. Available at: https://www.gob.pe/institucion/rree/noticias/303072-pfizer-y-biontech-suministraran-9-9-millones-de-dosis-de-su-vacuna-
candidata-contra-el-covid-19-al-peru.
[89] Reuters. New Zealand signs deal with Pfizer, BioNTech for COVID-19 vaccine. Press release, October 11, 2020. Available at:
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idUSKBN26X0AC.
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[91] Reuters. Argentina agrees deal for 22 million doses of AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine. November 7, 2020. Available at:
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covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN27N0UQ.
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[93] Laing, Aislinn. Chilean president says regulators okay AstraZeneca COVID vaccine trial. Reuters, November 4, 2020. Available at:
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idUSL1N2HQ37M.
[94] Paul, Ruma. Bangladesh signs deal with India for 30 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine. Reuters, November 5, 2020. Available at:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-bangladesh-india/bangladesh-signs-deal-with-india-for-30-million-doses-of-covid-19-
vaccine-idUSKBN27L1CD.
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Table S2. Vaccine doses reserved in pre-market purchase commitments
compared against country population and COVID-19 cases
Country COVID-19 cases1 Country Population2 Reserved Vaccine Doses3
World 54,296,615 7,674,000,000 7,481,100,000
United States 11,022,584 328,239,520 800,000,000
United Kingdom 1,372,884 66,834,400 345,000,000
European Union 9,256,496 447,512,040 1,605,000,000
Japan 118,601 126,264,930 540,000,000
Canada 299,246 37,589,260 358,000,000
Australia 27,711 25,364,310 134,800,000
Brazil 5,848,959 211,049,530 210,000,000
Indonesia 467,113 270,625,570 140,000,000
Note: All data are updated as of November 15, 2020. Data from this table were used to make the calculation that the
United States has reserved 800M doses, but accounts for a fifth of all COVID-19 cases globally, while Japan,
Australia, and Canada have collectively reserved more than 1B doses and do not account for even 1% of current
global COVID-19 cases globally.
References:
[1] Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, as of November 15, 2020. Available at:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
[2] 2019 World Bank Population, as of November 15, 2020. Available at:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
[3] The number of reserved vaccine doses represents the total from pre-market purchase commitments from the
vaccine manufacturers, by country, identified in Table S1. COVID-19 Vaccines: Key Characteristics of Pre-Market
Purchase Commitments.
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Table S3. Per capita COVID-19 vaccine courses
Country Reserved Vaccine Country Population2 Per Capita Reservations3
Courses1 In Courses
World 3,740,550,000 7,674,000,000 0.49
Canada 179,000,000 37,589,260 4.76
Australia 67,400,000 25,364,310 2.66
United Kingdom 172,500,000 66,834,400 2.58
Japan 270,000,000 126,264,930 2.14
European Union 802,500,000 447,512,040 1.79
United States 400,000,000 328,239,520 1.22
Brazil 105,000,000 211,049,530 0.50
Indonesia 70,000,000 270,625,570 0.26
Note: All data are updated as of November 15, 2020. All of the vaccine candidates identified in Table 1 are
undergoing clinical testing as two-dose courses, except CanSino which has a one-dose course regimen. Johnson &
Johnson/Janssen is undergoing clinical testing for one-dose or two-dose course application, but in this analysis, is
being counted as a two-dose per course regimen.
References:
[1] The number of reserved vaccine doses represents the total from pre-market purchase commitments from the
vaccine manufacturers, by country, identified in Table S1. COVID-19 Vaccines: Key Characteristics of Pre-Market
Purchase Commitments.
[2] 2019 World Bank Population, as of November 15, 2020. Available at:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
[3] Displayed in doses and calculated by the given formula:
𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑠
𝑃𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝒊𝒏 𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔𝒆𝒔 =
𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
9
Table S4. COVID-19 vaccine projected manufacturing capacity,
by company, by the end of 2021
Company Projected Manufacturing Reserved Courses1 Remaining
Capacity by end of 2021 Manufacturing
(in courses) Capacity (in courses)2
AstraZeneca/Oxford* 1,500,000,0003 1,610,600,000 -66,900,000
Novavax 1,000,000,0007 813,000,000 187,000,000
Pfizer/BioNTech 650,000,0005 261,200,000 388,800,000
Sanofi/GSK 500,000,0008 266,000,000 234,000,000
Johnson & Johnson/Janssen 500,000,0006 184,000,000 316,000,000
Moderna 500,000,0004 147,750,000 352,250,000
SinoVac and CanSino+ ** 805,000,00010 95,000,000 710,500,000
Gamaleya Research Institute 250,000,0009 174,500,000 75,500,000
CureVac* 150,000,00012 112,500,000 37,500,000
Medicago 50,000,00011 38,000,000 12,000,000
University of Queensland/CSL 50,000,00013 25,500,000 24,500,000
Note: All data are updated as of November 15, 2020. Projected manufacturing capacity by the end of 2021 are based
on publicly available, company-based estimates assuming successful regulatory approval, scale-up and demand for
the company’s vaccine candidate. Reserved courses refer to publicly known, pre-market purchase commitments as
of November 15, 2020. Total projected manufacturing capacity is 5.96B courses, and total remaining manufacturing
capacity is 2.36B courses.
* For AstraZeneca/Oxford, the number of reserved vaccine courses exceeds the projected manufacturing capacity by
the end of 2021. Limited transparency of these arrangements and uncertainties over the speed of introduction and
scale-up of these COVID-19 vaccine candidates do not make it possible to know whether these reserved courses
have been promised to be delivered by the end of 2021 or whether the projected manufacturing capacity announced
by each company is just a ballpark figure.
** Multiple firms based in China are bringing forward COVID-19 vaccine candidates. Only two—SinoVac and
CanSino—have pre-market purchase commitments of publicly known volumes. However, China’s National Health
Commission has announced plans of producing 610 million doses by the end of 2020 and at least a billion doses
annually by the end of 2021. This combined figure for 2020 and 2021 COVID-19 vaccine production was used in
this study’s calculations.
References:
[1] The number of reserved vaccine doses represents the total from pre-market purchase commitments from the
vaccine manufacturers, by country, identified in Table S1. COVID-19 Vaccines: Key Characteristics of Pre-Market
Purchase Commitments.
[2] Displayed in courses and calculated given by the given formula:
𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝒊𝒏 𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔𝒆𝒔
= 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 − 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑠
[3] FiercePharma. AstraZeneca shells out up to $60M to reserve more coronavirus shot capacity with Oxford
Biomedica, September 1, 2020. Available at: https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/astrazeneca-shells-out-
up-to-60m-to-reserve-covid-19-vaccine-capacity-oxford
[4] BioPharma-Reporter. Lonza and Moderna shoot for billion COVID-19 vaccine doses, May 5, 2020. Available at:
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[5] Pfizer. Pfizer and BioNTech conclude Phase 3 study of COVID-19 vaccine candidate, meeting all primary
efficacy endpoints, November 18, 2020. Available at: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-
detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine
[6] BioPharma-Reporter. Catalent takes on manufacture of J&J’s coronavirus vaccine, April 30, 2020. Available at:
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Increasing Novavax’ Global Production Capacity to Over 2 Billion Doses Annually, September 15, 2020. Available
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at: https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-announces-covid-19-vaccine-manufacturing-
agreement-serum
[8] Sanofi. Sanofi and GSK selected for Operation Warp Speed to supply United States government with 100
million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, July 31, 2020. Available at: https://www.sanofi.com/en/media-room/press-
releases/2020/2020-07-31-13-00-00
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vaccine in South Korea. Press release, November 13, 2020. Available at:
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the-sputnik-v-vaccine-in-south-korea/.
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2020. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beijing-china-archive-
a9fc0c458fda6a950da5f2cc0f4a354b
[11] Medicago. Medicago begins phase 1 clinical trials for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, July 14, 2020.
Available at: https://www.medicago.com/en/newsroom/medicago-begins-phase-i-clinical-trials-for-its-covid-19-
vaccine-candidate/
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candidate, CVnCoV. Press release, November 17, 2020. Available at:
https://www.curevac.com/en/2020/11/17/curevac-establishes-european-based-network-to-ramp-up-manufacturing-
of-its-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-cvncov/
[13] CSL. CSL to manufacture and supply University of Queensland and Oxford University vaccine candidates for
Australia, September 6, 2020. Available at: https://www.csl.com/news/2020/20200907-csl-to-manufacture-and-
supply-uq-and-ou-vaccine-candidates-for-australia
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