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  • Period Data Naive Forecasts Abs. Error Error Abs. % Error

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    edrianclyde
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    The document compares the performance of three forecasting models - naive, 3-period moving average (3PMA), and 3-period weighted moving average (3PWMA) - on a time series dataset. The naive model simply forecasts the next period will be the same as the current period. The 3PMA and 3PWMA models average the last 3 periods to generate the forecast. The 3PWMA weights the most recent period highest. The document calculates error metrics like mean absolute deviation, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error to evaluate forecast accuracy for each model.

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    NAÏVE FORECASTING MODEL

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    The document compares the performance of three forecasting models - naive, 3-period moving average (3PMA), and 3-period weighted moving average (3PWMA) - on a time series dataset. The naive model simply forecasts the next period will be the same as the current period. The 3PMA and 3PWMA models average the last 3 periods to generate the forecast. The 3PWMA weights the most recent period highest. The document calculates error metrics like mean absolute deviation, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error to evaluate forecast accuracy for each model.

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    58 views3 pages

    Period Data Naive Forecasts Abs. Error Error Abs. % Error

    Uploaded by

    edrianclyde
    The document compares the performance of three forecasting models - naive, 3-period moving average (3PMA), and 3-period weighted moving average (3PWMA) - on a time series dataset. The naive model simply forecasts the next period will be the same as the current period. The 3PMA and 3PWMA models average the last 3 periods to generate the forecast. The 3PWMA weights the most recent period highest. The document calculates error metrics like mean absolute deviation, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error to evaluate forecast accuracy for each model.

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    of 3

    NAÏVE FORECASTING MODEL

    Naive Abs. %
    Period Data Abs. Error Error2
    Forecasts Error
    January 32 - - - -
    40∣40−32∣
    February 40 32 ∣40−32∣=8 (40−32)2=64 =20%
    42∣42−40∣
    March 42 40 ∣42−40∣=2 (42−40)2=4 =4.76%
    36∣36−42∣
    April 36 42 ∣36−42∣=6 (36−42)2=36 =16.67%
    40∣40−36∣
    May 40 36 ∣40−36∣=4 (40−36)2=16 =10%
    45∣45−40∣
    June 45 40 ∣45−40∣=5 (45−40)2=25 =11.11%
    38∣38−45∣
    July 38 45 7∣38−45∣=7 (38−45)2=49 =18.42%
    49∣49−38∣
    August 49 38 ∣49−38∣=11 (49−38)2=121 =22.45%
    39∣39−49∣
    September 39 49 ∣39−49∣=10 (39−49)2=100 =25.64%
    45∣45−39∣
    October 45 39 ∣45−39∣=6 (45−39)2=36 =13.33%
    52∣52−45∣
    November 52 45 ∣52−45∣=7 (52−45)2=49 =13.46%

    December - 52      

    MAD =6.6 MSE = 50 MAPE 15.58%

    3PMA

    MA(3) Abs. %
    Period Data Abs. Error Error2
    Forecasts Error
    January 32 - - - -
    February 40 - - - -
    March 42 - - - -
    36∣36−38∣
    April 36 38 ∣36−38∣=2 (36−38)2=4 =5.56%

    ∣40−39.3333∣=0.666 40∣40−39.3333
    May 40 39.333 7
    (40−39.3333)2=0.4444 ∣=1.67%

    ∣45−39.3333∣=5.666 45∣45−39.3333
    June 45 39.333 7 (45−39.3333)2=32.1111 ∣=12.59%

    ∣38−40.3333∣=2.333 38∣38−40.3333
    July 38 40.333 3
    (38−40.3333)2=5.4444 ∣=6.14%
    49∣49−41∣
    August 49 41 ∣49−41∣=8 (49−41)2=64 =16.33%
    39∣39−44∣
    September 39 44 ∣39−44∣=5 (39−44)2=25 =12.82%
    45∣45−42∣
    October 45 42 ∣45−42∣=3 (45−42)2=9 =6.67%
    ∣52−44.3333∣=7.666 52∣52−44.3333
    November 52 44.333 7
    (52−44.3333)2=58.7778 ∣=14.74%

    December - 45.333      

    3PWMA

    MA(3) Abs. %
    Period Data Abs. Error Error2
    Forecasts Error

    January 32 - - - -
    February 40 - - - -
    March 42 - - - -
    ∣36−39.1111∣=3.111 36∣36−39.1111
    April 36 39.111 1 (36−39.1111)2=9.679 ∣=8.64%

    ∣40−38.8889∣=1.111 40∣40−38.8889
    May 40 38.889 1
    (40−38.8889)2=1.2346 ∣=2.78%

    ∣45−39.1111∣=5.888 45∣45−39.1111
    June 45 39.111 9 (45−39.1111)2=34.679 ∣=13.09%
    ∣38−41.3333∣=3.333 38∣38−41.3333
    July 38 41.333 3 (38−41.3333)2=11.1111 ∣=8.77%

    ∣49−40.7778∣=8.222 49∣49−40.7778
    August 49 40.778 2
    (49−40.7778)2=67.6049 ∣=16.78%

    ∣39−44.4444∣=5.444 39∣39−44.4444
    September 39 44.444 4
    (39−44.4444)2=29.642 ∣=13.96%

    ∣45−42.1111∣=2.888 45∣45−42.1111
    October 45 42.111 9 (45−42.1111)2=8.3457 ∣=6.42%

    ∣52−43.8889∣=8.111 52∣52−43.8889
    November 52 43.889 1 (52−43.8889)2=65.7901 ∣=15.6%

    December - 46.778      

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