Project Scheduling - Uncertain Activity Times
Project Scheduling - Uncertain Activity Times
ACN1 | CAED101
Most Expected
Optimistic Pessimistic
Activity Probable Time Variance
(a) (b)
(m) (weeks)
A 4.0 5.0 6.0 5 0.1111
B 2.5 3.0 3.5 3 0.0278
C 6.0 7.0 8.0 7 0.1111
D 5.0 5.5 9.0 6 0.4444
E 5.0 7.0 9.0 7 0.4444
F 2.0 3.0 4.0 3 0.1111
G 8.0 10.0 12.0 10 0.4444
H 6.0 7.0 14.0 8 1.7778
𝑎 + 4𝑚 + 𝑏 𝑏−𝑎 2
𝑡= 𝜎2 = ( )
6 6
6−4 2 2 2 1
4 + 4(5) + 6 30 𝜎𝐴2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.1111
𝑡𝐴 = = =5 6 6 9
6 6
3.5 − 2.5 2 1 2 1
2.5 + 4(3) + 3.5 18 𝜎𝐵2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.0278
𝑡𝐵 = = =3 6 6 36
6 6
6 + 4(7) + 8 42 8−6 2 2 2 1
𝑡𝐶 = = =7 𝜎𝐶2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.1111
6 6 6 6 9
5 + 4(5.5) + 9 36 9−5 2 4 2 4
𝑡𝐷 = = =6 𝜎𝐷2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.4444
6 6 6 6 9
5 + 4(7) + 9 42 9−5 2 4 2 4
𝑡𝐸 = = =7 𝜎𝐸2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.4444
6 6 6 6 9
2 + 4(3) + 4 18 4−2 2 2 2 1
𝑡𝐹 = = =3 𝜎𝐹2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.1111
6 6 6 6 9
8 + 4(10) + 12 60 12 − 8 2 4 2 4
𝑡𝐺 = = = 10 𝜎𝐺2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.4444
6 6 6 6 9
6 + 4(7) + 14 48
𝑡𝐻 = = =8 14 − 6 2 8 2 16 7
6 6 𝜎𝐻2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 1 𝑜𝑟 1.7778
6 6 9 9
Earliest Start Latest Start Earliest Latest Slack Critical
Activity
(ES) (LS) Finish (EF) Finish (LF) (LS-ES) Path?
A 0 0 5 5 0 Yes
B 0 1 3 4 1
C 5 7 12 14 2
D 5 5 11 11 0 Yes
E 3 4 10 11 1
F 11 11 14 14 0 Yes
G 11 12 21 22 0
H 14 14 22 22 0 Yes
E(T) = tA + tD + tF + tH
=5+6+3+8
= 22 weeks
22 − 22
𝑧= = 0 → 0.5 ~ 𝟓𝟎%
1.56
21 − 22
𝑧= = −0.6410256 → 0.2611 ~ 𝟐𝟔%
1.56