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  • Project Scheduling - Uncertain Activity Times

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    Ira Grace De Castro
    205 views4 pages
    This document contains a project schedule with activities, expected durations, variances, and a critical path analysis. It calculates the expected total project duration as 22 weeks with a variance of 1.56 weeks. It then performs statistical analysis comparing the actual project duration to the expected, finding it to be 1.92 standard deviations above expectation (97% probability of occurring) and directly on target (50% probability).

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    Project Scheduling Amswer

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    This document contains a project schedule with activities, expected durations, variances, and a critical path analysis. It calculates the expected total project duration as 22 weeks with a variance of 1.56 weeks. It then performs statistical analysis comparing the actual project duration to the expected, finding it to be 1.92 standard deviations above expectation (97% probability of occurring) and directly on target (50% probability).

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    205 views4 pages

    Project Scheduling - Uncertain Activity Times

    Uploaded by

    Ira Grace De Castro
    This document contains a project schedule with activities, expected durations, variances, and a critical path analysis. It calculates the expected total project duration as 22 weeks with a variance of 1.56 weeks. It then performs statistical analysis comparing the actual project duration to the expected, finding it to be 1.92 standard deviations above expectation (97% probability of occurring) and directly on target (50% probability).

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
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    of 4

    Ira Grace B. De Castro.

    ACN1 | CAED101

    Most Expected
    Optimistic Pessimistic
    Activity Probable Time Variance
    (a) (b)
    (m) (weeks)
    A 4.0 5.0 6.0 5 0.1111
    B 2.5 3.0 3.5 3 0.0278
    C 6.0 7.0 8.0 7 0.1111
    D 5.0 5.5 9.0 6 0.4444
    E 5.0 7.0 9.0 7 0.4444
    F 2.0 3.0 4.0 3 0.1111
    G 8.0 10.0 12.0 10 0.4444
    H 6.0 7.0 14.0 8 1.7778

    𝑎 + 4𝑚 + 𝑏 𝑏−𝑎 2
    𝑡= 𝜎2 = ( )
    6 6
    6−4 2 2 2 1
    4 + 4(5) + 6 30 𝜎𝐴2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.1111
    𝑡𝐴 = = =5 6 6 9
    6 6
    3.5 − 2.5 2 1 2 1
    2.5 + 4(3) + 3.5 18 𝜎𝐵2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.0278
    𝑡𝐵 = = =3 6 6 36
    6 6
    6 + 4(7) + 8 42 8−6 2 2 2 1
    𝑡𝐶 = = =7 𝜎𝐶2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.1111
    6 6 6 6 9

    5 + 4(5.5) + 9 36 9−5 2 4 2 4
    𝑡𝐷 = = =6 𝜎𝐷2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.4444
    6 6 6 6 9
    5 + 4(7) + 9 42 9−5 2 4 2 4
    𝑡𝐸 = = =7 𝜎𝐸2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.4444
    6 6 6 6 9
    2 + 4(3) + 4 18 4−2 2 2 2 1
    𝑡𝐹 = = =3 𝜎𝐹2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.1111
    6 6 6 6 9
    8 + 4(10) + 12 60 12 − 8 2 4 2 4
    𝑡𝐺 = = = 10 𝜎𝐺2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 0.4444
    6 6 6 6 9
    6 + 4(7) + 14 48
    𝑡𝐻 = = =8 14 − 6 2 8 2 16 7
    6 6 𝜎𝐻2 = ( ) = ( ) = 𝑜𝑟 1 𝑜𝑟 1.7778
    6 6 9 9
    Earliest Start Latest Start Earliest Latest Slack Critical
    Activity
    (ES) (LS) Finish (EF) Finish (LF) (LS-ES) Path?

    A 0 0 5 5 0 Yes
    B 0 1 3 4 1
    C 5 7 12 14 2
    D 5 5 11 11 0 Yes
    E 3 4 10 11 1
    F 11 11 14 14 0 Yes
    G 11 12 21 22 0
    H 14 14 22 22 0 Yes

    E(T) = tA + tD + tF + tH
    =5+6+3+8
    = 22 weeks

    𝜎 2 = 𝜎2𝐴 + 𝜎2𝐷 + 𝜎2𝐹 + 𝜎2𝐻


    = 0.11 + 0.44 + 0.11 + 1.78
    = 2.44

    𝜎 = √𝜎2 = √2.44 = 1.5620499 ≈ 1.56


    25 − 22
    𝑧= = 1.9230769 → 0.9726 ~ 𝟗𝟕%
    1.56

    22 − 22
    𝑧= = 0 → 0.5 ~ 𝟓𝟎%
    1.56
    21 − 22
    𝑧= = −0.6410256 → 0.2611 ~ 𝟐𝟔%
    1.56

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