Are there Rival Causes?

A. Circle the correct answers:

1. A rival cause is a plausible alternative explanation that can explain why a certain outcome
occurred.
A. False
B. True
2. The following key words indicate causal thinking, except
A. increases the likelihood
B. in contrast
C. contributes
D. deters
3. Whose responsibility is it to generate rival causes?
A. Non-profit organizations
B. The author or speaker
C. The government
D. The critical reader or listener
4. Causal oversimplification ignores
A. Contributory causes
B. “A cause, not the cause”
C. Critical thinking
D. All of the above
5. If a study is carried out using proper scientific research you don’t have to consider rival
causes.
A. True
B. False
6. Failing to recognize that two events may be influencing each other is a reasoning fallacy
A. called Fallacy of a single cause
B. called Confusion of Cause and Effect
7. “Neglect of a ______ Cause” is a fallacy that doesn’t recognize that ______ events may be
related because of the effects of a ______ factor.
A. contributory, some, outside
B. common, two, third
C. primary, associated, correlating
8. Which is NOT an example of Post hoc Fallacy in reasoning?
A. Never walk under ladders
B. My dating life increased after my cosmetic surgery
C. More people lost their jobs right after Obama was elected
9. In evaluating rival causes, you should look at
A. their emotional soundness
B. their consistency with other knowledge that you have

1
C. their future success in explaining or predicting events
B. Decide whether the following statements are true or false:

1. When researchers use a control group in their research, they don’t have to worry about rival
causes. FALSE
2. The more plausible rival causes that you come up with, the less confidence you should have in
the initial explanation offered by an author. TRUE
3. We can assume that if two events are associated or correlated then one causes the other.
FALSE
4. A scientific research published in a well-respected journal uses procedures that eliminate all
rival causes. FALSE
5. A scientific research published in a well-respected journal attempts to isolate causes, but the
results usually do not prove the researcher’s causal conclusion. TRUE

C. Identify the plausible rival causes in the following cases:

#1:
One day Bill wakes up with a fever. A few hours later he finds that his muscles are sore. He
concludes that the fever must have caused the soreness. His friend insists that the soreness and
the fever are caused by some microbe. Bill laughs at this and insists that if he spends the day in a
tub of cold water his soreness will go away.

#2:
Over the course of several weeks the leaves from the trees along the Wombat river fell into the
water. Shortly thereafter, many dead fish were seen floating in the river. When the EPA
investigated, the owners of the Wombat River Chemical Company claimed that is it was obvious
that the leaves had killed the fish. Many local environmentalists claimed that the chemical
plant’s toxic wastes caused both the trees and the fish to die and that the leaves had no real effect
on the fish.
#3:
A thunderstorm wakes Joe up in the middle of the night. He goes downstairs to get some milk to
help him get back to sleep. On the way to the refrigerator, he notices that the barometer has
fallen a great deal. Joe concludes that the storm caused the barometer to fall. In the morning he
tells his wife about his conclusion. She tells him that it was a drop in atmospheric pressure that
caused the barometer to drop and the storm.
# 4:
I can't believe it! The judges for that essay contest must have been biased against me. There was
no way I could have lost. I spent 30 hours writing and reviewing that paper, and had four people
proofread it. There were two high school teachers that told me that my paper was the best they'd
seen in their entire careers. I did find out, however, that the person who won goes to the school
where one of the judges was selected. That must have been why I lost and this other person won;
if the playing field had been even, my essay would have won out.

2
#5
A new 10 year follow-up study of nearly 7,000 men and women in California showed that
skipping breakfast is among seven health risks that increase your chances of an early death. The
study, by the University of California at Los Angeles Center for Health Sciences, found that
death rates were 40 percent higher for men and 28percent higher for women who “rarely or
sometimes” ate breakfast, compared with those who ate breakfast “almost every day.”
A previous 10 -year study conducted by the University of Iowa Medical College showed that
eating a nutritious breakfast was associated with better physical and mental performance among
children and adults. In particular, the study revealed that those who ate breakfast we are more
productive during the late morning. They also had a faster reaction time (which may mean fewer
accidents) and a less muscular figure than those who skipped breakfast.
Children who had no breakfast were more likely to be listless and have trouble concentrating.

A study found that death rates were 40 percent higher for men and 28 percent higher for women
who “rarely or sometimes ate breakfast” compared with those who ate breakfast almost every
day. Another study showed that eating a nutritious breakfast was associated with a better
physical and mental performance among children and adults. In reason number one the
researcher has compared groups, but she has failed to provide important controls to eliminate a
number of rival causes. The major question one needs to ask here is, “Did the breakfast eaters
and non-eaters differ from one another in significant ways that might have accounted for the
differences found?” For example, it is quite possible that people who don’t eat breakfast tend to
have bad self -care habits in general, such that they eat non-nutritious foods all day long, smoke
a lot, and get little exercise. Without knowing whether the groups differ significantly, it is
impossible to draw a causal generalization. Reason number two suffers from the same difficulties
as reason one. One rival cause is that people with a genetic predisposition for long life also have
biological make -ups that stimulate appetite after sleep. The direction of causation is always one
concern that careful hypothesis formation must attempt to nail down.
One additional rival cause involves the nutritional composition of typical breakfasts. It may not
be breakfast that is having the projected effect. Instead, it could be the vitamin, mineral, and fiber
content of typical breakfasts. Perhaps the identical nutrients eaten as a bedtime snack would have
the alleged positive benefits attributed to breakfast.

#6
According to a recent study, one of the major causes of violence in schools is listening to
aggressive heavy metal music. Researchers studied more than 100 cases of “serious” violence
within schools and found that 68 percent of the children involved in the violence listened to
heavy metal music. These children would frequently come to school with headphones, listening
to this music, as well as wearing clothing from heavy metal bands. Frequently, these heavy metal
songs discuss violence, and therefore are a direct cause of school violence.

Conclusion: A major cause of violence in schools is listening to aggressive heavy metal music.

3
Reason: Research on more than 100 cases of serious violence within schools found that 68
percent of the children involved in violence listened to heavy metal music. .
First, we don’t know how biased this sample is. The sample size is fairly large, which is good;
but is it random and does it have much breadth? The results, for example, may reflect a bias due
to the kind of school settings studied.
Second, as with most research testing causal conclusions, the omission of relevant comparison
groups is a major defect. For example, if we studied 100 cases of students who had NOT been
involved in serious violent acts, how many of those might have listened to heavy metal music?
Maybe many students in the schools studied tend to be
heavy metal listeners. A relevant comparison question is what percentage of children who listen
to heavy metal music versus children who don’t listen to heavy met almusic engage in violent
acts.
Even if one could demonstrate an ASSOCIATION between listening to heavy metal and
committing violent acts by using appropriate comparison groups, however, that would not by
itself support a causal link. Many rival causes could account for this relationship. For example,
we could ask, “What common factors might cause individuals to both listen to heavy metal
music and to act violently?” Many rival causes come to mind, such as belonging to socially
deviant peer groups, having problems with authority, a tendency to be stimulus seekers, and
others.

#7
According to the New York Times, The Urban Institute released a report that suggests that the
proliferation of iPods helps account for the nationwide rise in violent crime in 2005 and 2006.
"The report notes that nationally, violent crime fell every year from 1993 to 2004, before rising
in 2005 and 2006, just as 'America’s streets filled with millions of people visibly wearing, and
being distracted by, expensive electronic gear.’”
Post-Hoc - correlation doesn’t equal causation. Even if there is a causal connect, it would be a single-
cause fallacy, if the article did not point out that it was one of many factors contributing to the violent
crime.

#8
According to the 1979 FBI Uniform Crime Report, 67% of rapists in the U.S. have possessed
obscene materials. Therefore, dirty book and magazines cause rape.
A) Post Hoc – states that pornography causes rape. No data to support that.

B) Sample Size – Represents only rapists who have been convicted. Does not include those who’ve not
been caught. Did they also look at pornography, or perhaps they also read the Song of Solomon in the
Hebrew Testament. Does that then prove that Song of Solomon causes rape?

C) Questionable Criteria – Do dirty books and magazines constitute obscenity? What is the standard for
measuring obscenity? Does the Statue of David count - he is nude, after all?

#9

4
A survey of 600 delinquents arrested in Mobile, Alabama showed that three-fourths of them read
seven or more comic books a week. We should question whether our children should read comic
books.
A) Post Hoc – suggesting that comic books cause delinquency.

B) Sample Size – using just 600 youth in one city is not representative of all delinquents in the U.S.