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International Journal of Hospitality Management: Hyoung Ju Song, Jihwan Yeon, Seoki Lee
International Journal of Hospitality Management: Hyoung Ju Song, Jihwan Yeon, Seoki Lee
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: The current study examines how the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. restaurant firms’ stock returns varies according
COVID-19 to the firms’ pre-pandemic characteristics by employing three firm-level dimensions (financial conditions,
Stock returns corporate strategies, and ownership structure). Employing 795 firm-year observations obtained from annual
Restaurants
reports and other databases, this study found that restaurant firms with past characteristics of larger size, more
Financial conditions
Corporate strategies
leverage, more cash flows, less ROA, and more internationalization are more resilient to stock declines reacting
Ownership structure to COVID-19 than otherwise similar firms. Whereas, dividend, franchising, institutional ownership, and mana
gerial ownership did not show any significant moderating effect on the relationship between COVID-19 and stock
returns. This study sheds light on the research topic by providing insights into drivers of restaurant firm’s stock
returns during the COVID-19 shock. Future studies can employ the variables and method used in the current
study to extend the understanding of the issue.
1. Introduction (Yang et al., 2020). In the context of the hospitality industry, the
restaurant industry is regarded as having a widely embedded, high level
In early 2020, a novel and infectious disease known as COVID-19 of business risk (Singal, 2012) which has been severely exacerbated
struck Wuhan, one of the most populous cities in China. Since its start during the pandemic. In fact, several professional reports have
from Wuhan, COVID-19 has caused havoc around the world. Countries concluded that COVID-19 has significantly affected the restaurant in
including China, Italy, Spain, France, the U.K., and the U.S. have been dustry, as the pandemic rages on. For example, according to the National
hit hard so far with severe COVID-19 outbreaks. The local outbreak Restaurant Association (the industry’s main trade association), nation
quickly developed into an emerging public health crisis and eventually, wide sales were down by 47% during the period from March 1 to March
on March 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a 22; 7 in 10 operators have had to lay off employees and reduce the
pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020a). number of hours worked (National Restaurant Association, 2020). In
This pandemic is having a huge impact on real economic activity, but addition, since the end of March 2020, 3% of restaurants have perma
the extent of its actual impact remains unknown because the spread of nently closed as a result of COVID-19, and the restaurant industry has
the disease, its severity and mortality rate, suitable policy responses, and likely lost nearly $120 billion in sales during the first three months of the
individual behavior are all uncertain (Ramelli and Wagner, 2020). COVID-19 pandemic (National Restaurant Association, 2020). In light of
Notably, the spread of COVID-19 has created a sudden, temporary, sharp the fact that COVID-19 is triggering a global economic crisis and causing
shortfall in revenue for firms in many industries, one of the most financial imbalances and risks, the current study examines the effect of
poignant of which has occurred in the hospitality industry. Since more COVID-19 focusing on the restaurant context.
than 100 countries have announced partial or full lockdowns, air and Recent studies have posited that the economic crisis caused by
intercity travel is down by 70–90% compared to the previous year in COVID-19 is truly different from past crises, with respect to its cause,
major cities around the world (Dunford et al., 2020). Accordingly, in scope, and severity (Ding et al., 2020; Ramelli and Wagner, 2020). Given
ternational, regional, and local travel restrictions have greatly jeopar the uncertainty of COVID-19 and its potential impact on the restaurant
dized the hospitality industry, given its reliance on human mobility industry, we examine the relationship between various firm
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (H.J. Song), [email protected] (J. Yeon), [email protected] (S. Lee).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2020.102702
Received 27 June 2020; Received in revised form 14 September 2020; Accepted 26 September 2020
Available online 1 October 2020
0278-4319/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
H.J. Song et al. International Journal of Hospitality Management 92 (2021) 102702
characteristics and stock price reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. Egbunike and Okerekeoti, 2018; Han et al., 2018), those characteristics
Specifically, we attempt to investigate how the effect of COVID-19 on U. function as valid predictors to examine a firm’s resilience to unexpected
S. restaurant firms’ stock returns varies according to firms’ external crisis, such as COVID-19. Specifically, financial flexibility ob
pre-pandemic characteristics, by employing three firm-level dimensions: tained through sufficient cash holdings, reduced debt, high past profit
1) financial conditions, such as leverage ratio and cash flow; 2) corpo ability, and high dividend may serve as good signals that a firm has
rate strategies, including franchising and internationalization, and 3) capacity to endure during a period of market collapse in the U.S.
ownership structure, including the extent of institutional and manage restaurant industry caused by COVID-19 which has drastically reduced
rial ownership. To the best of our knowledge, no examination exists of revenue production (Ramelli and Wagner, 2020). If a firm’s share
the relationship between various firm-level characteristics and stock holders and investors are relatively optimistic about the firm’s future
price reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic in the restaurant context. By situation thanks to its financial flexibility, the firm’s stock returns may
examining these characteristics in a comprehensive manner, we can fall less, in response to COVID-19 damage, as compared with other firms
better identify the connection between firm characteristics and stock having poor financial conditions (Kahle and Stulz, 2013; Pinkowitz
price reactions to the pandemic. Consequently, this study provides an et al., 2016). The current study examines firm size, leverage, dividend,
unfortunate but valuable opportunity to gain insights into drivers of cash flow, and past profitability as key proxies of a firm’s financial
restaurant firms’ stock returns and the workings of equity markets conditions, considering that these variables are adopted extensively in
during this unprecedented crisis in recent memory. the literature examining the effect of firm characteristics on financial
performance, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic (Fahlenbrach
2. Literature review et al., 2020; Albuquerque et al., 2020; Gerding et al., 2020). For
example, firm size is a factor that influences a firm’s financial perfor
A consistent and comprehensive framework that has been widely mance, based on economy of scale and market power advantage
accepted in the field of strategic management suggests that firms obtain (Chauvin and Hirschev, 1993). Leverage, representing a key financial
sustained competitive advantages by implementing strategies that use condition indicating liquidity of a firm, is also a factor that influences a
their internal strengths and neutralize external threats (Porter, 1985). firm’s financial performance, given the advantage of a tax shield
Based on the assumption that firms within an industry may be hetero (McConnell and Servaes, 1990). Dividend represents a firm’s financial
geneous regarding the strategic resources they possess, Barney (1991) and accounting situation, which influences speculation about a firm’s
suggested firm resources as a source of sustained competitive advan financial performance and current share price (Miller and Modigliani,
tages. Firm resources denote all assets, capabilities, firm characteristics, 1961). In addition, given the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
information, and knowledge that enable firms to implement strategies on cash flows, a firm’s cash flow could be a good indicator of the
that improve its efficiency and effectiveness (Daft, 1983). Among resilience of a firm reacting to COVID-19 shock. In a similar vein, past
various types of firm resources, this study particularly concentrates on profitability of a firm (i.e., ROA) may act as a signal that a firm has
firm characteristics that may enable firms to conceive of value-creating capacity to endure this shock. That is, given the severely negative impact
strategies and make firms more resilient to a negative shock, namely the of the COVID-19 pandemic on firm performance and valuation, a firm’s
COVID-19 pandemic. In specific, this study focuses on the three financial characteristics, such as firm size, leverage, dividend, cash flow,
firm-level dimensions (i.e., financial conditions, corporate strategies, and ROA, are likely to influence investors’ market valuations of the firm
and ownership structure) because shareholders and potential investors in responding to the pandemic.
are likely to pay attention to liquidity and business risks of a firm when
abrupt external changes take place (Fahlenbrach et al., 2020; Bates 2.2. Corporate strategies
et al., 2009; Harford, 1999). More specifically, as the severity of the
COVID-19 pandemic increases, an adverse impact of COVID-19 on Secondly, the corporate strategies of restaurant firms, including
restaurant firms’ liquidity and operational risks seems evident, since franchising and internationalization, are pivotal factors to be considered
restaurant firms would experience significant revenue shortfalls caused in terms of operational risks under external uncertainty from COVID-19
by a sharp decrease in customer demand and even (Ding et al., 2020). For example, franchising is well known for providing
temporarily-interrupted operations (Ozili and Arun, 2020). Also, under a firm with a higher level of stability with relatively low operational risk
uncertainty as to when COVID-19 damage will be abated, increased through a stable fee income structure (Koh et al., 2009; Shane et al.,
operational risks and shortage of liquidity would likely make share 2006). In contrast, internationalization is regarded as a risky strategy,
holders consider a possibility of selling stocks they hold, thereby leading because a firm must handle volatile business environments of multipoint
to a sharp decline in stock returns of restaurant firms (Ding et al., 2020). locations where the firm enters and operates its properties (Caves, 1996;
In suffering from loss of revenue, restaurant firms’ capabilities in coping Sun and Lee, 2013). Considering that COVID-19 shock is not a local but a
with the threats of COVID-19 matter, resulting in differing market global threat, a high degree of exposure to foreign markets through
evaluations, contingent on a firm’s relevant characteristics (Ding et al., internationalization may increase a firm’s risk, thereby adversely
2020; Ramelli and Wagner, 2020). In this regard, firm characteristics affecting market evaluation and stock returns. However, when an event
consisting of financial conditions, corporate strategies, and ownership like COVID-19 occurs, the impact may be so universal, regardless of
structure are expected comprehensively to represent endurance and owned or franchised units, and domestic or international units, such that
resilience of restaurant firms reacting to COVID-19 shock, as detailed the risk-reduction role of the franchising strategy and the
further below. risk-aggravating role of internationalization may diminish or disappear.
Considering these contradictory viewpoints, it becomes an interesting
2.1. Financial conditions empirical question whether franchising and internationalization play a
role on resilience of restaurant firms reacting to COVID-19 shock.
Firstly, a firm’s financial characteristics play a salient role in self- Therefore, the current study investigates whether the effect of COVID-19
funding when its cash flows get deterred by such unexpected external on stock return decline varies, depending on the degree of each of the
events as a pandemic and a financial crisis (Kahle and Stulz, 2013). above two corporate strategies.
Given that investors in a stock market make and adjust their evaluations
pertaining to a firm’s market value when a firm’s financial character 2.3. Ownership structure
istics (e.g., firm size, leverage, dividend, cash flow, and ROA) are dis
closed to the public via annual reports and other earnings Thirdly and finally, ownership structure needs to be contemplated
announcements (Fama, 1970; Oh and Kim, 2001; Khlifi and Bouri, 2010; when examining the stock return changes of restaurant firms following
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H.J. Song et al. International Journal of Hospitality Management 92 (2021) 102702
COVID-19 shock, in that managerial opportunism is likely to occur in a management, it is probable that shareholders and investors may refer to
situation where external environments are volatile with high uncer long-term corporate conditions and other characteristics, rather than
tainty and ownership structure is a good indicator for predicting a firm’s relying solely on 1-year corporate information. Accordingly, as a
monitoring ability (Khandani and Lo, 2011). If managerial ownership is sensitivity analysis, this study replaced 2019 firm characteristics as used
low, top executives may seek their own interests at the expense of in our main analyses with 3-year (i.e., 2017–2019) average character
shareholder interests, using information asymmetries between agents istics, to investigate the moderating effect of pre-pandemic firm char
and principals about complicated market situations (Doherty, 1999; acteristics in a more comprehensive manner. After deleting observations
Jensen and Meckling, 1976). In contrast, high managerial ownership with missing values, outliers whose studentized residuals’ absolute
allows executives’ (agents’) interests to be aligned with those of owners values are over 3 (Chatterjee and Hadi, 1986), and influential cases
(principals), which reduces the potential threat of agency costs (Gu and whose Cook’s distance is larger than 1 (Anderson et al., 2016), this study
Qian, 1999). In a similar vein, as financial institutions (e.g., hedge funds, retrieved 795 firm-week observations for main analyses with firm
investment management firms, and commercial banks) own a large characteristics as of 2019 and 797 observations for the 3-year average.
number of shares of restaurant firms, institutions actively monitor ex
ecutive officers’ aberrant activities, thereby reducing agency problems 3.2. Models and estimation methods
(Jensen and Meckling, 1976; Crutchley et al., 1999). During the
COVID-19 crisis with unpredictable and complicated managerial situa To investigate the moderating role of firms’ pre-pandemic charac
tions, high managerial and institutional ownership may act as trust teristics on the relationship between COVID-19 and stock returns in the
worthy indicators for shareholders in sustaining their shareholding. restaurant industry, we proposed a research model as follows:
Thus, the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on stock returns of restaurant
firms could vary, contingent on ownership structure as measured by RETURNSit = α0+ α1COVID-19t + α2X′ i,pre-2020 + α3 COVID-19t×X′ i,pre2020
managerial and institutional ownership. Given the potential importance + εit,
of corporate ownership structure on corporate behavior and resilience,
where RETURNS represents weekly stock returns (in percentage) of each
the current study investigates whether the effect of COVID-19 on stock
firm within a week; COVID19 represents the weekly growth rate of the
return decline varies depending on the ownership structure.
number of confirmed U.S. COVID-19 cases; X′ pre-2020 represents pre-
pandemic firm characteristics, consisting of three dimensions (i.e.,
3. Methods
financial conditions, corporate strategies, and ownership structure)
along with nine variables; COVID-19t × X′ pre2020 represents an interac
3.1. Data
tion term of COVID-19 and X′ pre-2020; ε represents an error term, and t
and i represent time (i.e., week) and firm, respectively.
The current study sample consists of all publicly traded U.S.
This study adopted generalized estimating equations (GEE) for co
restaurant firms with North American Industry Classification System
efficients estimation, which has frequently been used in the strategic
(NAICS) codes 722511 (full-service restaurants) and 722513 (limited-
management literature, particularly on organizational performance,
service restaurants). In order to estimate how firms’ pre-pandemic
with panel data (Liang and Zeger, 1986; Hilbe and Hardin, 2008; Hen
characteristics moderate the impact of COVID-19 shock on stock
derson et al., 2006). Specifically, GEE enables us to derive maximum
returns in the U.S. restaurant industry, we set up the sample period from
likelihood estimates, addressing non-independent observations which
January 3rd to May 15th, 2020. In particular, although COVID-19 was
generate high correlations among repeated measures within panel data
first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, the pandemic has
(Ghisletta and Spini, 2004). Considering that many explanatory vari
spread out rapidly to other countries since January 2020. Accordingly,
ables, particularly pre-pandemic firm characteristics, are invariant
COVID-19 was recognized as a Public Health Emergency of International
within a firm over the sample period, the use of GEE for coefficients
Concern and classified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization
estimation seems plausible for the current data set. In addition, this
(WHO) on January 30th and March 11th, 2020, respectively. As of early
study employed Newey-West standard errors, recognized as autocorre
June, the total number of confirmed cases all over the world is over 7
lation – and heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors for coefficient
million; in particular, the U.S. has the largest number of confirmed cases,
estimation (Gujarati, 2009).
at over 2 million (World Health Organization, 2020b). Given that
COVID-19 is not a temporary shock, but causes prolonged and
continuing damage, this study has attempted to designate the sample 3.3. Stock returns measure
period as long as possible. We obtained data on the number of COVID-19
cases in the U.S. from the COVID-19 dashboard of the Center for Systems After obtaining stock price data of the U.S. restaurant firms from
Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) and Yahoo Finance, we calculated weekly stock returns (in percentage).
the WHO website (covid19.who.int). Although the CSSE database is a Specifically, during the sample period from January 3rd to May 15th,
web-based dashboard, tracking confirmed cases in real time, and is 2020, we collected dividend-adjusted closing prices of each firm on the
commonly utilized in the literature and media (e.g., Ding et al., 2020), it last trading day of a week. The difference between the closing price on
provides historical data since January 22nd, 2020. To establish weekt and that on weekt-1 was divided by the price on weekt-1 to
confirmed cases prior to January 22nd, we collected information on the compute weekly stock returns (Ramelli and Wagner, 2020).
rest of confirmed cases from the WHO website.
To calculate stock returns, our dependent variable, we retrieved 3.4. COVID-19 cases measure
restaurant firms’ stock price data from Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.
com) during the sample period. In terms of restaurant firms’ pre- The CSSE’s dashboard and WHO provide the number of daily COVID-
pandemic characteristics (i.e., financial conditions, corporate strate 19 confirmed cases, the number of recoveries, and the number of deaths.
gies, and ownership structure), 2017–2019 data was obtained from By focusing on weekly cumulative confirmed cases in the U.S. within the
annual reports (10-K) and other definitive proxy statements (DEF 14A). sample period, we calculated the growth rates of COVID-19. And, to
For analyses, this study used firm characteristics as of 2019, which is the match COVID-19 weekly growth rates with weekly stock returns of
latest corporate information shareholders and investors are able to ac sampled restaurant firms, we set up a week from Saturday to Friday,
cess and utilize in evaluating firms’ managerial situations in reaction to consistent with stock market trading days, given that the last trading day
COVID-19. However, before making significant decisions under a severe of a week is normally Friday (Ding et al., 2020). The equation for
external shock, such as selling stocks and intervening in a firm’s calculating the weekly growth rate of COVID-19 cases is as follows:
3
H.J. Song et al. International Journal of Hospitality Management 92 (2021) 102702
4
H.J. Song et al. International Journal of Hospitality Management 92 (2021) 102702
Table 2
Summary of Pearson’s correlations.
Variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Table 3 Table 4
The moderating role of financial characteristics. The moderating role of corporate strategies.
2019 only 2017–19 2019 only 2017–19
COVID-19 − 5.028*** − 11.05*** − 4.832*** − 10.194*** COVID-19 − 5.028*** − 5.649*** − 4.832*** − 5.422***
(0.534) (1.568) (0.563) (2.111) (0.534) (0.589) (0.563) (0.630)
SIZE 0.473*** 0.0202 1.508 1.109 FR 0.775 0.579 6.730 6.926
(0.156) (0.193) (1.051) (1.136) (0.687) (1.039) (5.372) (5.510)
LEV 0.684 − 0.852 6.534 4.774 INT 1.557 − 2.406 − 48.236 − 53.213
(0.469) (0.610) (4.766) (4.919) (1.510) (2.034) (35.852) (36.137)
DIV − 0.0005 − 0.0007 − 0.001 − 0.002 COVIDXFR 0.277 − 0.266
(0.0003) (0.0004) (0.002) (0.002) (1.345) (1.310)
CASH 6.119*** − 1.994 43.790 31.323 COVIDXINT 5.631** 6.987***
(2.010) (3.111) (26.813) (27.803) (2.802) (2.284)
ROA − 5.200** 6.742 − 1.423 13.591 SIZE 0.473*** 0.473*** 1.508 1.508
(2.339) (3.754) (18.334) (19.942) (0.156) (0.156) (1.051) (1.052)
COVIDXSIZE 0.645*** 0.570** LEV 0.684 0.680 6.534 6.538
(0.223) (0.290) (0.469) (0.469) (4.766) (4.771)
COVIDXLEV 2.189*** 2.514** DIV − 0.0005 − 0.0005 − 0.001 − 0.001
(0.763) (1.034) (0.0003) (0.0003) (0.002) (0.002)
COVIDXDIV 0.0004 0.0004 CASH 6.119*** 6.115*** 43.790 43.829
(0.0006) (0.0005) (2.010) (2.008) (26.813) (26.844)
COVIDXCASH 11.555** 17.755*** ROA − 5.200** − 5.183** − 1.423 − 1.416
(5.022) (5.756) (2.339) (2.346) (18.334) (18.352)
COVIDXROA − 17.028*** − 21.516** INST 0.060*** 0.0597*** 0.059 0.059
(5.709) (10.530) (0.012) (0.012) (0.056) (0.056)
FR 0.775 0.780 6.730 6.721 MNG 0.022 0.022 − 0.024 − 0.024
(0.687) (0.689) (5.372) (5.366) (0.013) (0.013) (0.046) (0.047)
INT 1.557 1.531 − 48.236 − 48.210 Constant − 3.312** − 2.872** − 14.532 − 14.129
(1.510) (1.518) (35.852) (35.820) (1.333) (1.437) (10.961) (10.944)
INST 0.060*** 0.060*** 0.060 0.059
(0.012) (0.012) (0.056) (0.056) Wald Chi2 204.72*** 258.17*** 115.74*** 133.14***
MNG 0.022 0.022 − 0.024 − 0.024 Observations 795 795 797 797
(0.013) (0.013) (0.046) (0.046)
Constant − 3.312* 0.911 − 14.532 − 10.783 Newey-West standard errors in parentheses.
***
(1.333) (1.671) (10.961) (11.634) p < 0.01.
**
p < 0.05.
Wald Chi2 204.72*** 333.27*** 115.74*** 277.69***
Observations 795 795 797 797
relationship between COVID-19 and stock returns, whereas FR shows an
Newey-West standard errors in parentheses. insignificant moderating effect.
***
p < 0.01. Table 5 reports the results of the moderating role of ownership type
**
p < 0.05. on the effect of COVID-19 on stock returns of restaurant firms. Sur
prisingly, both institutional and managerial ownership showed an
slightly. insignificant moderating effect at the 5% significance level. That is,
Table 4 provides results of the moderating role of corporate strate ownership type, composed of institutional and managerial ownership,
gies, FR and INT. While an interaction term (FR × COVID-19) showed an does not appear to be a critical factor for shareholders to consider in
insignificant impact on RETURNS, the other interaction term their equity evaluation of the firm under COVID-19 shock. Likewise,
(INT × COVID-19) has a positive and significant effect. In other words, results in column 4 utilizing 3-year-average firm characteristics provide
firms with a higher degree of internationalization mitigate stock de qualitatively the same results of an insignificant moderating effect of
clines as a result of COVID-19 shock. In contrast, the degree of fran both institutional and managerial ownership.
chising did not significantly affect the relationship between COVID-19
and stock returns in the restaurant industry. From an analysis using 3- 5. Discussion and implications
year average firm characteristics in column 4, we checked consistent
results that INT demonstrates a positive moderating impact on the COVID-19 has triggered unprecedented challenges for firms,
5
H.J. Song et al. International Journal of Hospitality Management 92 (2021) 102702
6
H.J. Song et al. International Journal of Hospitality Management 92 (2021) 102702
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