20/08/2019 Quiz: Week 1 Homework

Week 1 Homework
 This is a preview of the published version of the quiz

Started: Aug 20 at 2:11pm

Quiz Instructions
Please answer all the questions below.

Question 1 1 pts

(Lesson 1.3: Deterministic Model.) Suppose you throw a rock off a cliff having height =
1000 feet. You're a strong bloke, so the initial downward velocity is = -100 feet/sec
(slightly under 70 miles/hr). Further, in this neck of the woods, it turns out there is no
friction in the atmosphere - amazing! Now you remember from your Baby Physics class
that the height after time is

When does the rock hit the ground?

a. -11.625 sec

b. 2 sec

c. 5.375 sec

d. 11.625 sec

e. 10 sec

Question 2 1 pts

(Lesson 1.3: Stochastic Model.) Consider a single-server queueing system where the
times between customer arrivals are independent, identically distributed Exp(λ = 2/hr)
random variables; and the service times are i.i.d. Exp(µ = 3/hr). Unfortunately, if a
potential arriving customer sees that the server is occupied, he gets mad and leaves the
system. Thus, the system can have either 0 or 1 customer in it at any time. This is what’s

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20/08/2019 Quiz: Week 1 Homework

known as an M/M/1/1 queue. If denotes the probability that a customer is being

If the system is empty at time 0, i.e., , what is the probability that there will be
no people in the system at time 1 hr?

a. 1

b. 2/3

c. 0.397

d. 0.603

Question 3 1 pts

(Lesson 1.4: History.) Harry Markowitz (one of the big wheels in simulation language
development) won his Nobel Prize for portfolio theory in 1990, though the work that
earned him the award was conducted much earlier in the 1950s. Who won the 1990 Prize
with him? You are allowed to look this one up.

a. Merton Miller and William Sharpe

b. Henry Kissinger

c. Albert Einstein

d. Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar

Question 4 1 pts

(Lesson 1.5: Applications.) Which of the following situations might be good candidates to
use simulation? (There may be more than one correct answer.)

a. We put $5000 into a savings account paying 2% continuously compounded interest per year,
and we are interested in determining the account's value in 5 years.
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20/08/2019 Quiz: Week 1 Homework

b. We are interested in investing one half of our portfolio in fixed-interest U.S. bonds and the
remaining half in a stock market equity index. We have some information concerning the
distribution of stock market returns, but we do not really know what will happen in the market with
certainty.

c. We have a new strategy for baseball batting orders, and we would like to know if this strategy
beats other commonly used batting orders (e.g., a fast guy bats first, a big, strong guy bats fourth,
etc.). We have information on the performance of the various team members, but there’s a lot of
randomness in baseball.

d. We have an assembly station in which “customers” (for instance, parts to be manufactured)

e. Consider an assembly station in which parts arrive randomly, with independent exponential
interarrival times. There is a single server who can process the parts in a random amount of time
that is normally distributed. Moreover, the server takes random breaks every once in a while. We
would like to know how big any line is likely to get.

f. Suppose we are interested in determining the number of doctors needed on Friday night at a
local emergency room. We need to insure that 90% of patients get treatment within one hour.

Question 5 1 pts

(Lessons 1.6 and 1.7: Baby Examples.) The planet Glubnor has 50-day years.

Suppose there are 2 Glubnorians in the room. What’s the probability that they’ll have the
same birthday?

a. 1/(49 · 50)

b. 1/50

c. 1/25

d. 2/49

Question 6 1 pts

(Lessons 1.6 and 1.7: Baby Examples.) The planet Glubnor has 50-day years.

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20/08/2019 Quiz: Week 1 Homework

Now suppose there are 3 Glubnorians in the room. (They’re big, so the room is getting
crowded.) What’s the probability that at least two of them have the same birthday?

a. 1/50

b. 2/50

c. 1/(49 · 50)

d. 0.0592

Question 7 1 pts

(Lessons 1.6 and 1.7: Baby Examples.) Inscribe a circle in a unit square and toss
random darts at the square.

Suppose that 380 of those darts land in the circle. Using the technology developed in this
lesson, what is the resulting estimate for ?

a. −3.14

b. 2.82

c. 3.04

d. 3.14

e. 3.82

Question 8 1 pts

(Lessons 1.6 and 1.7: Baby Examples.) Again inscribe a circle in a unit square and toss
random darts at the square.

What would our estimate be if we let and we applied the same ratio strategy to
estimate ?

a.

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20/08/2019 Quiz: Week 1 Homework

b.

c. 3.04

d. 3.14

e.

Question 9 1 pts

(Lessons 1.6 and 1.7: Baby Examples.) Suppose customers arrive at a single-server ice
cream parlor times 3, 6, 15, and 17. Further suppose that it takes the server 7, 9, 6, and 8
minutes, respectively, to serve the four customers. When does customer 4 leave the
shoppe?

a. 18

b. 25

c. 33

d. 45

Question 10 1 pts

(Lesson 1.8: Generating Randomness.) Suppose we are using the (awful) pseudo-
random number generator

with starting value ("seed") . Find the second PRN,

a. 0

b. 1/8

c. 7/8

d. 3

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Question 11 1 pts

(Lesson 1.8: Generating Randomness.) Suppose we are using the "decent" pseudo-
random number generator

with seed = 12345678. Find the resulting integer . Feel free to use something like
Excel if you need to.

a. 352515241

b. 16808

c. 1335380034

d. 12345679

Question 12 1 pts

(Lesson 1.8: Generating Randomness.) Suppose that we generate a pseudo-random

a. -6.17

b. 6.17

c. -0.685

d. 0.685

Question 13 1 pts

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20/08/2019 Quiz: Week 1 Homework

(Lesson 1.9: Output Analysis.) BONUS: Which scenarios are most apt for a steady-state
analysis? (More than one answer may be right.)

a. We simulate a bank from noon till 1:00 pm.

b. We investigate a production line that runs 24/7.

c. We are interested in seeing what our portfolio is likely to be 3 months from now.

d. We try to estimate the unemployment rate 30 years from now.

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