Epidemiology Whole
Epidemiology Whole
Epidemiology Whole
Epidemiology
The word epidemiology is derived from a Greek word, Epi=upon, demo= people and
logo = discoursing.
‘Study of that which is upon people’ or in modern parlance, ‘the study of disease in
populations’.
Definition of Epidemiology
Epidemiology is the study of disease in populations and of factors that determine its
occurrence; the key word being populations.
Uses of epidemiology
The epidemiological approach to diagnosis is holistic one, which contrast with the
more reductionistic approaches of clinical diagnosis and pathology.
Its basic unit of concern – its patient is the herd, the flock, or the drove rather than the
single sick animal.
This population unit includes the well animals as well as the sick and dead ones.
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2. Epidemiology in direct action
iv. Research on new methods or approaches for the investigation and control of
crowded diseases.
Objectives of epidemiology
5. Assessment of the economic effects of a disease, and analysis of costs and economic
benefits of alternative control programmes
Descriptive epidemiology:
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The observations are partially subjective, but, in common with observations in other
scientific disciplines, may generate hypothesis that can be tested more rigorously
later.
Analytical epidemiology
Experimental epidemiology
Experimental epidemiologists observe and analyse data from group of animals from
which they can be select, and in which they can alter, the factors associated with
groups.
Theoretical epidemiology
Epidemiological subdisciplines
These generally reflect different areas of interest rather than fundamentally different
techniques.
They all apply the four types of epidemiology and can overlap but their separate
identities are considered by some to be justifiable.
Clinical epidemiology
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Computational epidemiology
Genetic epidemiology
Study of the role and importance of inherited factors (particularly hereditary factors)
and their relation with exogenous in the occurrence of disease in populations.
Example: Segregative analysis used to pinpoint groups of animals (the same family
ancestry) the equivalent of family in human genetic epidemiology with higher risk of
disease.
Field epidemiology
Participatory epidemiology
The techniques that are employed evolved in the social sciences and consist of simple
visual methods and interviews to generate qualitative data.
Molecular epidemiology
The epidemiological applications of molecular biology have drawn heavily upon the
concepts and techniques of genetic engineering.
Example: analysis of the nucleic acid, using restriction enzymes, of several viral
strains isolated from a specific area, that allows groups from similar outbreaks to be
distinguished.
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Other subdisciplines:
Environmental epidemiology
Micro-epidemiology
Comparative epidemiology
Macro-epidemiology
Nutritional epidemiology
Subclinical epidemiology
Social epidemiology
Psychological epidemiology
Components of epidemiology
1. Qualitative investigation
If field observations suggest that certain factors may be causally associated with a
disease, then the association must be assessed by formulating a causal hypothesis.
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2. Quantitative investigation
2.1 Surveys
Thus the regular recording of milk yields is monitoring, as is the routine recording of
meat inspection findings at abattoirs. The identity of individual diseased animals
usually not recorded.
It is now used in much wider sense to include all types of disease- infectious and
non-infectious and involves the collation and interpretation of data collected during
monitoring programmes, usually of the recording of the identity of diseased
individuals, with a view to detecting changes in populations health.
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The recording of tuberculosis lesions at abattoir, followed by tracing of infected
animals from the abattoir back to their farms of origin, is an example of surveillance.
2.3 Studies
Experimental studies
Cross-sectional studies
Case-control studies
Cohort studies
In an experimental study the investigator has the ability to allocate animals to various
groups, according to factors which the investigator can randomly assign to animals.
The other types of study- cross sectional, case control and cohort are observational.
It compares a group of diseased animals with a group of healthy animals with respect
to exposure to hypothesized causal factors.
For example, a group of cats with urolithiasis can be compared with a group of cats
without urolithiasis with respect to consumption of dry cat food has effect on
pathogenesis of disease.
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2.3.4 Cohort study
Here group exposed to factor is compared with a group not exposed to the factors
with respect to development of a disease.
2.4 Modelling
Disease dynamics and effect of different control strategies can be represented using
mathematical equations.
3. Disease control
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Lecture 2. Agent, Host and Environmental Strategies of Epidemiology
(By Dr. S. S. Shekhawat on 13.08.2020)
Determinants
Diet, for e.g., is a determinant of bovine hypomagnesaemia; reduced food intake and
low levels of plant magnesium, related to rapid grass growth, are associated with an
increased incidence of the disease.
Classification of determinants
Primary determinants are those factors whose variations exert a major effect in
inducing a disease.
Some determinants are internal to host for example genetic constitution these
determinants are intrinsic also termed as endogenous.
Some determinants are external to the host e.g., transportation, which may result in
physical trauma, producing bruises of carcasses such determinants are extrinsic also
termed as exogenous.
Determinants commonly are classified into those associated with the host, the agent
and the environment.
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3.1 host determinants
3.1.1 Genotype
Some diseases have totally genetic cause, that is, alterations in gene structure are
considered to have marked effect on pathogenesis, and they may be inherited by
succeeding generations; an example is haemophilia A and b in dogs.
Chromosomal disorders
Multifactorial disorders
3.1.2 Age
Many bacterial and viral diseases, for instance, are more likely to occur and to be fatal
in young than in old animals either because of an absence of acquired immunity or
because of low non immunological host resistance.
3.1.3 Sex
Sex associated occupational hazards, although more relevant to human than animal
disease, can be identified occasionally in animals, where animal use is equated with
occupation.
Behavioral pattern may account for bite wound abscesses being more common in
male than in female cats.
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3.1.4 Genetic determinants
Genetic differences in disease incidence may be inherited either by being sex linked,
sex limited or sex influenced.
Species and breeds vary in the in their susceptibility and responses to different
infectious agent. Thus dog do not develop heart water.
Boxer appears to be more susceptible than other breeds to mycotic diseases, such as
coccidioidomycosis.
Hip dysplasia and osteosarcoma are more common in large breeds than in small
breeds of dog.
The conformation of animals may similarly increase the risk of some disease.
For instance, cows with small pelvic outlet relative to their size are predisposed to
dystocia.
Predisposition to some diseases is associated with coat colour, which is heritable and
a risk indicator.
For example white cats have a high risk of developing cutaenous squamous cell
carcinoma related to lack of pigment which protects the skin from the carcinogenic
effect’s of sun’s ultraviolet radiation.
Infectious agents vary in their ability to infect and to induce disease in animals.
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3.2.2 Gradient of infection
Clinical disease may result in the development of a long standing chronic clinical
infection, recovery or death.
The carrier state: Individual that harbours a specific pathogen or potential pathogen in
the absence of discernible clinical signs, but that may serve as a source of this agent.
Different type of carriers are recognized depending upon the stage of disease (healthy
or asymptomatic if not disease; incubatory, latent and chronic).
Healthy carrier: Carrier of a specific infectious agent who doesnot exhibit any clinical
signs associated with the disease throughout the duration of infection. e.g., Birds and
rodents harbouring arbovirus, “Typhoid Mary
Incubatory carrier: Incubatory carrier are animals that excrete agent during the disease
incubation period. Example: Dogs usually shed rabies in their saliva for upto 5 days
before clinical signs of rabies develop and periods as long as 14 days have been
reported.
Active carrier: Carrier that provides the support needed for the agent multiply.
Example: Pig infected with pseudorabies.
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Chronic carrier: Individuals remaining in a carrier state for a long period of time after
convalescence, sometimes untill death. Example: Pigs that recovered from
pseudorabies, cattle following bovine infectious rhinotracheitis.
Latent infection: A latent infection is one that persists in an animal and in which there
are no overt clinical signs.
Inapparent infection: Infection that does not produce detectable clinical signs or
performance losses.
The exogenous pathogens are not usually present in the host. They are generally
acquired by exposure to an infected animal and usually produce disease with clearly
identifiable clinical signs and pathological lesions. Example canine distemper,
rinderpest.
Opportunistic pathogens
A microorganism that doesnot ordinarily cause disease but becomes pathogenic under
certain circumstances.
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3.3 Environmental determinants
3.3.1 Location
Local geological formations, vegetation and climate affect the spatial distribution of
both animals and disease.
3.3.2 Climate
Microclimate: It is a climate that occur in a small defined space. This may be as small
as within a few millimeters of plant’s or animal’s surface or as large as piggery or calf
house.
3.3.3. Husbandry
Housing
Example: claw lesions are more common and severe in pigs reared on aluminum slats
than the pigs reared on concrete slabs or soil.
Diet
Diet has obvious effects in diseases caused by energy, protein, vitamin, mineral
deficiencies.
The use to which the animal is put can affect disease occurrence.
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Stress
4. Interaction
Determinants associated with host, agent or environment do not exert their effects in
isolation, but interact to induce disease.
Interaction refers to the interdependent operation of factors to produce an effect.
Two specific meanings are attached to interaction.
Example: There is a chemical interaction between the K88 antigen of E. coli and
receptors in the intestine of some pigs which results in bacteria that possess the
antigen begin pathogenic to the pigs with receptors.
There appears to be a physical interaction, between the presence of bacteria and poor
ventilation in the induction of calf respirator disease, associated with density of air
borne bacteria.
Often disease occurrence does not depend simply on the presence or absence of a
factor there may be continuous variation in the frequency of occurrence of disease
associated with both strength of the factor.
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Epidemiological triad:
Host
Agent
Environment
The determinant associated with the host, agent and environment do not exert their
effect in isolation, but interact to produce disease.
Concept of iceberg:
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Lecture -3: Transmission and Maintenance of infection
(By Dr S S Shekhwat on 20.08.2020)
Transmission of infection
Transmission may be either:
A. Horizontal (Lateral): Horizontally transmitted infections are those transmitted from any
segment of a population to another; for example, influenza virus from one horse to a
stablemate.
B. Vertical: Vertical transmitted infections are transmitted from one generation to the next
by infection of the embryo or foetus while utero or in ovo.
Horizontal transmission:
i. Direct transmission
Direct transmission implies direct and essentially immediate transfer of an agent from
infected to susceptible hosts.
The time period between contamination of the object and subsequent exposure of
susceptible individuals is highly variable and may range from few minutes to years.
Droplets and other large particles that promptly settle out of the air are not considered to
air borne.
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Air borne transmission may be affected by droplet nuclei or dust.
1.1 Host
1.1.1 Host
A plant, animal or arthropod that is capable of being infected with, and therefore giving
sustenance to, an infectious agent.
Examples: Vertebrates and rabies virus; ruminants and Brucella; dogs and Toxocara
canis.
A parasitological term describing a host in which an organism undergoes its sexual phase
of reproduction.
Example: ruminants and equines for the giant liver flukes; canines for hydatid
echinococcosis; small ruminants and chamois for the protostrongylid nematodes.
Both final and definitive imply the end of the line, in other words termination of dynamic
process.
An animal that maintains an infection in the latter’s endemic area (e.g., dogs infected
with distemper virus).
Since an infectious agent frequently depends upon a primary host for its long term
existence, the host is also called a maintenance host.
A species that additionally is involved in the life cycle of an agent, especially outside
typical endemic areas (e.g., cattle infected with strains of FMD virus that usually cycle in
buffaloes).
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1.1.6 Paratenic host
Amplifying hosts are generally considered to be those intermediate hosts that do not
suffer from disease, but in which the number of infectious units increases extensively and
provides a source for epidemics in humans and domestic animals.
Example: Hibernating snakes infected with either western, eastern and Japanese
encephalitis virus.
Dead-end host: Species or individuals hosting a pathogen that do not permit transmission
of that pathogen under normal circumstances.
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1.1.12 Reservoir
A reservoir host is one in which an infectious agent normally lives and multiplies, and
therefore is a common source of infection to other animals.
Any animate (humans, animals, insect etc.) or inanimate object (plants, soil, feces etc.)
or any combination of these serving as a habitat of a pathogen that reproduces itself in
such a way as to be transmitted to a susceptible host.
Reservoir for more than one component: Warthogs and ticks (African swine fever). The
African swine fever virus is maintained in a region by a cycle of infection between
warthogs and soft ticks. Both are needed for survival of this virus. Bushpigs can also
serve as reservoir of this agent.
A rodent and its burrow (plague caused by Yersinia pestis). When a rodent carrying
Yersinia pestis dies in its burrow, the stable soil conditions, enriched by nutritive
elements coming from decomposition of dead rodent, are favourable to the multiplication
of the bacteria.
Carrier animals, animals with inapparent infections that are also transmitters of
the infectious agent
Incidental reservoir
Example: clothing contaminated with small pox virus and stocked by the army for 15
years before being marketed as surplus.
Passive reservoir
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1.1.13 Commensal
Example: Numerous bacteria living at the surface of mucosa or in the digestive tract of
animals and humans.
1.2 Vector
Vectors are defined as invertebrate animals- usually arthropods that transmit infectious
agents to vertebrates.
An animal (usually an arthropod) that physically carries an infectious agent to its primary
or secondary host.
For an arthropod to fulfill the role of biological vector, there must be an initial phase
when the pathogenic agent is unlikely to be transmitted.
During this phase the agent may either multiply (propagative transmission), such that in
few days it increases in number above its original concentration, or accomplish a
necessary phase of development (development transmission) or undergo a combination of
both these processes.
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1.3 Three types of biological transmission occur
With an essential phase of development occurring in the vector e.g., Dirofilaria immitis
in mosquitoes
When the agent multiplies in the vector e.g., louping ill virus in ixodid ticks.
In contrast, the incubation period is the period of time between infection and the
development of clinical signs.
The generation time is the period between infection and maximum infectiousness.
Interval between the time of contamination of an individual by a pathogen and the time
when it becomes a source of the agent.
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It is defined as host specific ability of an infectious agent to multiply in the host while
reducing lesions and disease.
Pathogenicity: the host specific ability of an agent to cause disease or otherwise induce
pathological change in susceptible host.
Pathogenicity is host specific; that is, an agent pathogenic to one genus or species of
organism is not necessarily pathogenic to other organisms.
Effective contact describes the conditions under which infection is likely to occur.
Effective contact may be very short (e.g., seasonally transmitted, vector borne diseases)or
potentially of many years duration(e.g., anthrax spores in soil).
The site or sites by which an infectious agent gains entry to a host and by which it leaves
the host, are the agents routes of infection.
Infection via mouth is one of the more common routes of entry, especially in relation to
the enteric organisms which often escape from an infected animal in the faeces.
The respiratory route is also a common method of transmission for many infectious
agents, including that those are not restricted to the respiratory tract ( e.g., Salmonella
typhimurium).
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C. Infection via skin, cornea and mucous membranes
Certain agents infect only the skin and transmission is always by direct contact with
either another infected animal or a fomites: examples are ring worm and ectoparasitic
infestations.
Another important form of percutaneous infection is from bites by both vertebrates and
arthropods. Example: viruses of rabies
Although few diseases can be transmitted through intact skin, several can infect
undamaged mucous membranes. For example, Trypanosoma equiperdum in horses.
Six main methods of transmission, which bring infectious agents into contact with the
sites of infection, can be identified.
1.6.1 Ingestion
This may occur via a mechanical vehicle, for example contaminated water or by ingestion
of intermediate hosts such as cestode cyst in meat.
It is the usual method of transmission with hardy spores of fungi and some bacteria, and
also occurs with pathogens of the respiratory tract that are expired on the breadth of
infected animals and enter susceptible ones during inspiration.
1.6.3 Contact
1.6.4 Inoculation
Inoculation is the introduction into the body, by puncture of the skin or through a wound
of infectious agents.
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1.6.5 Iatrogenic transmission
1.6.6 Coitus
Certain diseases are transmitted only in this way. These are called venereal diseases.
Infectious diseases can be transmitted by the methods described above over long
distances as a result of the mobility of infected animals, microorganisms and parasites,
vectors and fomites.
2. Vertical Transmission
2.1 Hereditary
Hereditarily transmitted diseases are carried within the genome of either parent.
2.2 Congenital
Congenital refers to disease acquired either in utero or in ova, rather than inherited.
This involves either infection of superficial layers of ovary or infection of ovum itself.
E.g., chicken leucosis viruses.
This is via the placenta or via the foetal circulation through the placenta to the foetus. For
e.g., kittens can be transplacentally infected with feline panleucopenia virus.
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2.5 Ascending infection
This is infection that is transmitted from the lower genital canal to the amnion and
placenta. (e.g., some Staphylococcus and Staphylococcus spp. Infection).
Some arthropods notably ticks and mites, transmit bacteria, viruses and protozoa from
one generation to another via their eggs; this is transovarial transmission.
In contrast, some arthropods only transmit infections from one developmental stages to
another (e.g., in ticks: larva to nymph, nymph to adult); this is trans-stadial transmission.
Example: Theileriosis occrring in cattle, sheep & goats and transmitted by tick-
Rhipiciphalus.
Maintenance of Infection
1. Hazards to Infectious Agents
The transmission of infection involves some stages when the infectious agent in the host,
and others when it is in external environment or in vector or in both.
The host has its natural defense mechanisms: surface active chemicals, specific reactive
cells, phagocytes and humoral antibodies.
The successful parasite must be able to avoid, in part, these mechanisms, and must also
avoid competition with other agents that may simultaneously infect the host in similar
niche.
Parasites have evolved strategies to resist the host’s protective mechanisms, such as acid-
resist anthelminth cuticles and an intracellular mode of life.
The two main hazards presented by the external environment are desiccation and
ultraviolet light.
Many agents may be partially protected from desiccation by being discharged in moist
carriers such as faeces and urine.
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Examples: Leptospires persist in longer in paddy fields than in semi arid regions. Some
agents like pox viruses are resistant to desiccation and can survive for long periods in dry
infected scab material.
2. Maintenance Strategies
The ways in which infectious agents are maintained can be considered as strategies for
maintenance.
Some agents avoid transfer via the environment. There are four main methods.
a. By vertical transmission
b. By venereal transmission
c. By vector transmission
d. By transmission by sarcophagi
The harshness of the external environment can be buffered by surrounding the infectious
agent with a shell that is resistant to heat and desiccation.
Some agents enter the host, replicate and leave very quickly, before the host has the time
to mount an immune response or die.
Infectious agent may persist within the host, sometimes for life.
Persistence occurs because the host’s defense mechanisms fail to eliminate agents.
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Other means of avoiding the host’s immune response are antigen variation, intracellular
parasitism, multiplication in sites inaccessible to the immune response and the induction
of ineffective antibodies.
In man, for example, over 80% of the infectious agent to which he is susceptible are
shared by other species of animal.
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Survey and Surveillance of animal diseases and related parameters
(By Dr S S Shekhawat, Assistant Professor, PGIVER on 27.08.2020)
Information on disease and associated events, such as productivity, can be obtained from
surveys.
This usually involves counting members of aggregate of units and measuring their
characteristics. Here characteristic include the presence of particular disease, weight and
milk yield etc.
Surveys are carried out to supplement the normal reporting system and to provide
specific quantitative data on the disease studied because data available from reports is
often not sufficient for epidemiological analysis.
So sample survey is designed well then a reasonably accurate and acceptable estimate of
a variable can be made by examining some of the animals in the relevant population i.e. a
sample.
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Types of Survey
c. Screening- this is diagnostic survey identifying undiagnosed cases of disease using rapid
tests or examination.
Sampling
The validity of the sampling theory is based on the assumption that an aggregate of units
can be divided into representative subunits and that characteristic of the aggregate can be
estimated from subunits.
Target population and study population should be same but practically not
possible.
Sampling frame: Before a sample is taken, members of the study population must be
identified by constructing a list; this is called sampling frame.
If animals were chosen from 1000 animal population, the sampling fraction would be 1%.
Veterinary sampling frames include lists of abattoirs, farms, veterinary hospitals, etc.
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Types of sampling
1. Non probability sampling: Here the choice the sample is left to the investigator.
When convenience is the main criterion for selecting a sample, it is very unlikely that the
sample will be truly representative of the study population, resulting in biased estimates.
c. The object is to select a sample where characteristics are balanced with those of the target
population.
d. Cluster sampling:
Sometimes, the strata (clusters) are defined naturally (e.g. litters, herds etc.) or by
geographical locations (e.g. countries, villages etc.).
Then all the individuals within the clusters have to be selected e.g. 10 pups from 20
bitches which are giving birth to 5 pups each are to be selected.
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Then select 2 bitches (clusters) randomly
The herds are selected randomly as primary sampling units and within each of the
selected herds;
e.g. to select 10 pups from 20 bitches which are giving birth to 5 pups each
1° Region
2° Dairy farms
3° Cows
Surveillance
An essential part of disease control is the ability of document the occurrence of disease
with goal of developing effective control and eradication strategies; this is surveillance.
Surveillance is derived from the French, surveiller, ‘to watch or guard a person’.
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Monitoring includes routine observation on health, productivity and environmental
factors and the recording and transmission of these observations e.g. recording of milk
yields, T.B. lesion during meat inspection etc. The uses of animals disease monitoring
include:
Surveillance is more intensive form of data recording than monitoring and has three
distinct elements:
The broad aims of veterinary surveillance follow the rules of Veterinary Medicine in
general, namely, maintenance of high standards of animal health and welfare and
protection of public health.
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Provision of information to plan and conduct research
Types of surveillance
Sentinel surveillance
Serological surveillance
Passive surveillance
Active surveillance
Targeted surveillance
Scanning surveillance
Sentinel surveillance
Surveillance can include the entire national herd (e.g., testing for bovine tuberculosis)
Alternatively, attention may be focused on species in general. Thus horses can be used as
sentinels for VEE infection & stray dogs can be sentinels for canine parvo virus infection,
infection being identified serologically.
Domestic animals also can be used as sentinels of human environmental health hazards
such as carcinogens and insecticides. E.g., EEE infects horses & other vertebrates,
including man, but has a reservoir in birds.
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Serological surveillance
Passive surveillance has been described as the continuous monitoring of the existing
disease status of the populations that are survived, using routinely collected to produce
outputs which in turn can feed into policy decisions.
Examples include reports of laboratory diagnosis, routine meat inspection findings and
statutory notification of disease.
Active surveillance
Active surveillance based on well-designed surveys, can produce the unbiased estimate.
Collects specific information about a defined disease so that its level in the defined
population can be measured and its options monitored.
It is often planned using appropriate statistical sampling theory and commonly focuses on
populations that are at increased risk of being affected thereby increasing the efficiency
of detection.
Scanning surveillance
Maintains a continuous watch over endemic disease. Here unexpected changes can be
recognized.
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Sources of Epidemiological Data
Data
Data is defined as the collection of facts, especially numerical which can be used for further
reference of information.
Classification of Data
1. Qualitative data describe a property of an animal, that is, its membership of group or class.
Such data therefore are termed categorical. Examples are breed and sex of an animal.
2. Quantitative data relate to amounts, rather than just indicating classes. Examples are
prevalence, incidence, body weight, milk yield, and temperature and antibody titer.
a. Discrete data can have only one of a specified set of values, such as whole number
(1,2,7,8 etc.), for example, the number of teats on a sow
Discrete data generates counts. Thus, aggregates of qualitative (categorical) data are
counted (e.g., total number of male dogs or Frisian cows).
b. Continuous data may have any value within a defined range (though the range can be
infinite). Examples are the girth of a cow and its body weight. Continuous data are
quantified by comparison with a fixed unit, that is, they are measured. Continuous data
therefore generate measurements.
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4. Reliability: Similar results has to be obtained, after repetition of same experiments, this
also used synonym for repeatability.
E.g. A midshaft femoral fracture, may be diagnosed very accurately when using ‘x’ ray
examination.
The different sources from where the data can be collected are as follows,
Besides this, the Government has also set up various diagnostic laboratories where the
specimens /samples received from field are examined.
These farms constitute the good source of data collection for retrospective studies as
these data are recorded and stored routinely.
These organizations can also help for prospective study as it is easy to collect
information/random samples.
There are certain institutes /farms that are under direct control of ICAR/ Central
Government.
All these institutes are recording and storing data in relation to diseases and production
events regularly.
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The data related to the milk production, type of feed used, AI practices, vaccination,
number of deaths, disease occurrence, therapeutic measures followed etc. are recorded
routinely such information is very useful in knowing the patterns of diseases and its
association with management / environmental factors in a particular area.
Slaughterhouses
In India, large numbers of animal (cattle, sheep, goat, pigs etc.) are slaughtered daily for
human consumption generally apparently healthy animals are slaughtered, therefore
majority of the diseases are diagnosed at meat inspection are subclinical or inapparent.
The data related to the parasitic diseases like Taeniosis, GI nematodes and chronic
diseases like TB, JD could be better obtained from these sources.
Poultry farms
The data related to poultry diseases can be obtained from various broiler farms and
hatcheries.
The emergence of new diseases as well as reemergence of diseases if data are collected
regularly.
This is in-turn helps in the understanding the disease patterns and association of various
causal factors with these diseases.
Vaccine institutes
These can provide information regarding type of vaccines produced, total doses produced
and sold in a particular area/region/State.
The total vaccine consumption in an area will indirectly help in knowing the disease
status and awareness among masses regarding the disease problems.
Feed manufacturers
Feed manufacturers can provide information about type of ingredients used in mixed
feed.
Pharmaceutical companies
The sale records of pharmaceutical companies provide an indirect means of assessing the
extent of disease in a particular area.
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Private pet clinics
Data related to health of pet animals particularly dogs, cats, lovebirds provide
information regarding disease prevalence.
Government bulletins
An international bulletin on animal diseases covering the member countries of the world
is published by OIE provide information related to disease prevalence, incidence,
epidemics and pandemic in population.
Knackers’ yards
The premises other than the slaughter houses where ill or dead animals, which are unfit
for human consumption, are sent for slaughtering are referred as knackers yards.
The data related to morbidity and mortality, and demographic data are generally
represented and it should be displayed in such a way that the information conveyed can
be understood easily. There are different methods of representation of the data.
1. Table
2. Bar chart
3. Line diagram
4. Pie chart
7. Shewhart Chart
8. Cusum Chart
9. Mapping
Mapping
This is of value not only in recording of areas where diseases exist but also in
investigating the mode and direction of transmission of infectious diseases.
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Maps can also suggest possible cause of disease of unknown aetiology.
Maps can be qualitative, indicating location without specifying the amount of disease.
Types of maps
2. Distribution map: A distribution map is constructed to show the area over which
disease occurs.
Example: Area endemic to disease, area sporadic to disease and area free from the
disease are shown under different markings or shade.
3. Choroplethic map:
Example: Areas with <25% prevalence, 26-50% prevalence, 51-75% prevalence and
>75% prevalence of helminths in a particular district (political map) are shown in
different shades/markings.
4. Isoplethic map:
True boundaries between different values can be depicted by joining all points of equal
value by a line, such as joining points of equal height to produce the familiar contour
map.
5. Demographic map:
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Geographic Information System
Disease distribution can be mapped and analysed using geographic information systems
(GIS).
These are computerized systems for collecting, storing, managing, interrogating and
displaying the spatial data.
They have a range of powerful functions in addition to simple mapping; these include
graphical analysis based on spatial location, statistical analysis, and modelling.
Coupling database and GIS technology provides the tools for a detailed analysis of spatial
patterns and distributions in veterinary profession.
Application of GIS:
Overlay analysis: The maps on different data sets can be superimposed on each
other.
Buffer generation: can provide information about the animal at risk of infection
within a given distance of an infected area.
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EPIDEMIOLOGICAL METHODS
(Dr S S Shekhawat, Assistant professor, PGIVER on 03.09.2020)
Types of epidemiology
There are four approaches to epidemiological investigations & are traditionally called as
types of epidemiology.
They are:
Descriptive epidemiology
Analytical epidemiology
Experimental epidemiology
Theoretical epidemiology
1. Descriptive epidemiology
It involves observing and recording the disease and possible causal factors.
The observations sometimes may be partially subjective and later on hypothesis will be
generated and will be rigorously tested later on.
Procedure
Measurement of diseases.
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Here after defining the things properly, the data are collected and analyzed to arrive at an
etiological hypothesis.
Population
Specific cause
Expected outcome
It gives lot of information regarding magnitude of disease and types of disease problems
existing in community or a population.
It gives clue to the disease: Etiology and later on help in formulation of an etiological
hypothesis.
Cross-sectional studies
(Prevalence, Survey)
It is based on single examination of a cross section of population at one point in time and
these things can be applied to entire population. This study is useful in chronic cases than
short-lived cases.
It is also known as prevalence study because prevalence can be obtained through this
study. But this study does not give much information about the natural history of a
disease and also incidence rate.
This study investigates relationship between disease (or other associated health related
factors) and hypothesized causal factors in a specified population during a specified
period of time.
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Inference can be made about the association between the disease and the hypothesized
causal factors. Example: Heart valve incompetence (disease) and breed (factor).
The point of time may range from instant to longer periods although all are treated as
static point in time events.
For the purpose of causal interpretation, cross-sectional studies are best suited to study
the permanent factors such as breed, sex or blood type.
Example: Questioner based surveys; Studies related to ancillary data to the results of
immunologic, bacteriologic or toxicologic and slaughter house surveys.
2. Analytical epidemiology
It is the analysis of observations by using the suitable diagnosis and statistical tests.
Observational studies
It is similar to experimental study. Animals are allotted to the groups with respect to
certain characteristics they possess (trait, disease etc.)
However it is not possible to assign animals to groups randomly because the investigator
has little control over factors that are being studied, as characteristics are inherent
(Examples are sex, weight and diet).
Usually the occurrence of a disease is known by estimating the morbidity and mortality
rates.
The estimation of mortality is straight forward whereas the morbidity rate is expressed as
prevalence and incidence rate.
To know these things two types of observational studies are undertaken. They are
Longitudinal study
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Longitudinal study
Cohort study
In longitudinal studies, the observations are repeated in the same populations over
prolonged period of time. It is useful to
Know the natural history of the disease & its future outcome
Case-control study
Compare a group of diseased animals with a group of healthy animals with respect to
exposure to hypothesized causal factors. Example: Occurrence of Fascioliasis with
respect to exposure.
The exposure to this factor or factors and outcome (disease) has occurred before
the start of study.
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Basic steps
2. Matching
3. Measurement of exposure
Total
a+c b+d a+b+c+d=n
Estimation of risk
(Relative risk is defined as the ratio between the incidence of disease among exposed
persons and incidence among non-exposed.)
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Odds ratios
Relative risk cannot be calculated in case control studies because the rates of disease in
the exposed and unexposed groups are unknown.
From a case control study, we can derive what is known as Odds ratio which is a measure
of the strength of the association between risk factor and outcome.
𝑎𝑑
Odds ratio =
𝑏𝑐
Odds ratio is calculated as the ratio between the odds of disease in exposed animals and
odds of disease in unexposed animals.
Odds is the probability that the event will occur divided by the probability that the event
will not occur.
The odds ratio is interpreted exactly the same as relative risk and has an advantage over
the relative risk in that it may be used to measure the strength of association
irrespective of the sampling method used. It is also known as the cross-product ratio.
Cohort study
Cohort study is also referred to as follow-up study, prospective study and incidence.
A group exposed to factors is compared with a group not exposed to factors with respect
to development of disease.
In this study, characteristics or factors used to define a population are called maneuver,
those possessing them are called cohorts (those who share a common characteristic).
This study is usually undertaken to either accept or reject a hypothesis. Here the
hypothesis formulated by the cross-sectional or the case-control study is tested as
additional evidence.
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The important features of this study are,
o The cohorts are identified prior to the appearance of disease under investigation.
o The study group i.e. the case cohorts and control cohorts are observed over a
period of time to determine the frequency of a disease among them.
• When there is good evidence of an association between exposure and the disease,
this is evidenced by cross sectional and case control studies.
• The cohort must be free from disease when the study is undertaken.
• Both groups should be susceptible to the disease. Example: Persons of 35 and above
years of age should be selected for lung cancer study.
4. Follow up
i. Incidence rate
𝑎 𝑐
Exposed = , Unexposed =
(𝑎+𝑏) (𝑐+𝑑)
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ii. Estimation of risk
Having calculated the incidence rates, the next step is to estimate the risk of outcome in
the exposed and non-exposed cohorts. This is done in terms of two well-known indices
A. Relative risk
Relative risk is the ratio of incidence of the disease (or death) among exposed and the
incidence among non-exposed.
𝑎 𝑐
= ÷
(𝑎+𝑏) (𝑐+𝑑)
It is the direct measure of strength of the association between suspected cause and effect.
Attributable risk is the difference in incidence rates of disease between an exposed group
and non-exposed group.
Attributable risk = Incidence of disease rate among exposed – Incidence of disease rate
among non-exposed.
𝑎 𝑐
Attributable risk = -
(𝑎+𝑏) (𝑐+𝑑)
Attributable risk indicates to what extent the disease under study can be attributed to the
exposure.
Attributable risk indicates to the extent to which the incidence in exposed animals would
be reduced if they had not been exposed to risk factors, assuming that the risk factor is
causal.
Attributable Fraction (AF) = It is the amount of disease in exposed animals due to some
specific factor.
𝐴𝑅 𝑅𝑅−1
Attributable Fraction = =
𝑎/(𝑎+𝑏) 𝑅𝑅
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3. Experimental epidemiology
The epidemiologist will allot animals into different groups and can alter the factors
associated with the groups (epidemiologist is having control over the groups).
Most of the research activities in Veterinary field deal with experimental observations
compared to the descriptive observations made in natural cases in human medicine.
The aim of experimental studies is to provide scientific proof of etiological factors and
provide a method of measuring the effectiveness and efficiency of health services for the
prevention, control and treatment of disease.
The basic steps in conducting a randomized control trials include the following,
o Drawing up a protocol
o Randomization
o Manipulation
o Follow up
o Assessment
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Non-randomized trials
4. Theoretical epidemiology
Division of epidemiology that studies and uses mathematical models in order to establish
prediction on occurrence of disease or health states, to better understand epidemiologic
mechanisms, and to test hypotheses concerning these mechanisms.
The models are so designed as to mimic the real epidemiological situations as existing
under conditions of farms or flocks.
The models essentially need to be designed on a cost effective basis and should provide
more alternatives than one to manage a problem.
Model of mastitis in dairy herds to investigate biologic and economic results from
different control strategies.
Theoretical studies use mathematical models to mimic the reality or simulate field
conditions.
Theoretical epidemiologic models are highly dependent upon the quality of information
used in their elaboration.
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5. Molecular epidemiology
Molecular epidemiology has recently been defined as “a science that focuses on the
contribution of potential genetic and environmental risk factors, identified at the
molecular level, to the etiology, distribution and prevention of disease within herd/flock
and across populations.”
The term “molecular epidemiology” comprises of two words, the first word molecular
refers to the analysis of molecules, usually meaning nucleic acids and proteins while
epidemiology means study of disease, its determinants in population.
Therefore, molecular epidemiology is the analysis of nucleic acids and proteins in the
study of health and disease determinants in a population or in other words it is study of
diseases in a population utilizing methods of molecular characterization of etiological
agents or of the pathological changes induced by them.
The methods include peptide mapping, nucleic acid finger printing and hybridization,
restriction enzyme analysis, monoclonal antibodies, PCR, etc.
These techniques help in studying the minute genetic and antigenic differences between
viruses, bacteria and other microorganisms at a higher level of discriminations.
o The development of prevention strategies for the control of bacterial, parasitic and
viral diseases through molecular diagnosis.
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6. Serological epidemiology
Serology is used to evaluate the levels of exposure to infectious agents and to define the
nature of cellular and humoral responses of populations.
It is the most common and valuable approach to study infectious diseases in masses.
Example: Many descriptive studies dealing with infectious diseases are done by
searching for antibodies in the serum (bovine viral leucosis, bovine viral diarrhea).
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National and International Regulations on Livestock Diseases
(Dr. S S Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER on 10.09.2020)
NIHSAD of ICAR is a premier institute of India for research on exotic and emerging
pathogens of animals.
It came to existence on August 8th , 2014 as an independent institute under ICAR from its
original status as High Security Animal Disease Laboratory (HSADL), , a regional station
of Indian Veterinary Research Institute (IVRI), Izatnagar.
The institute has contributed significantly by detecting many animal diseases of exotic
origin and preventing them from entering our country.
The institute has a BSL-3+ biocontainment facility having a laboratory wing and an
animal wing.
Basic and strategic research on exotic, emerging and re-emerging animal diseases.
To carry out basic & applied research on exotic, emerging and re-emerging
diseases of animals.
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2. ICAR-National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics
(NIVEDI), Bengaluru
NIVEDI carries out research on the following aspects of livestock health, including:
Collaborative study on economic losses due to livestock disease and their control
measures.
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3. Centre for Animal Disease Research and Diagnosis (CADRAD)
Established at IVRI, Izatnagar on 10th March, 1986 with a view to provide health
care and diagnosis of animal diseases in the country.
Since then this Centre has been efficiently carrying-out laboratory examination of
materials referred from all over the country.
This component has been renamed from the National Project on Rinderpest
Eradication (NPRE) to National Project on Rinderpest Surveillance and
Monitoring (NPRSM).
India has been declared free from Rinderpest and Contagious Bovine Pleuro-
Pneumonia (CBPP) infection by OIE (World Organization for Animal Health) in
2006 and 2007, respectively.
This agency collects data of diseases from all States of our country and supplies this
information to the concerned people as animal disease surveillance bulletin every month.
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International Organizations
1. World Organization for Animal Health (Office Internationale des epizootics – OIE), Paris
(France)
Incursions of rinderpest in Europe and most notably the epizootic which occurred in
Belgium in 1920 led to the creation of OIE in 1924.
In May 2003, the office became the World Organization for Animal Health but kept its
historical acronym OIE.
OIE maintains permanent relations with more than 20 other international organizations
including FAO, WHO, WTO, PAHO.
Objectives of OIE:
Each Member Country undertakes to report the animal diseases that it detects on
its territory.
The OIE then disseminates the information to other countries, which can take the
necessary preventive action.
1. The OIE collects and analyses the latest scientific information on animal disease
control and then made available to the Member Countries to help them to improve
the methods used to control and eradicate these diseases.
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3. To provide expertise and provide international solidarity for the control of animal
diseases (International Solidarity)
4. To guarantee the sanitary safety of world trade by developing sanitary rules for
international trade in animals and animal products (Sanitary safety)
The OIE develops normative documents relating to rules that Member Countries
can use to protect themselves from diseases, without setting up unjustified
sanitary barriers.
6. To provide a better guarantee of the safety of food of animal origin and to promote
animal welfare through science based approach (New mandate for animal production
food safety and animal welfare)
The OIE Member Countries have decided to provide a better guarantee of the
safety of food of animal origin by creating greater synergy between the activities
of the OIE and those of the Codex Alimentarius Commission.
As a mark of the close relationship between animal health and animal welfare, the
OIE has become, at the request of its Member Countries, the leading international
organization for animal welfare.
The list is reviewed on a regular basis and in case of modifications adopted by the World
Assembly of Delegates at its annual General Session, the new list comes into force on 1 st
January of the following year.
For year 2020, the list includes 117 animal diseases, infections and infestations.
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Multiple species diseases:- Anthrax, Brucellosis, FMD.
All OIE Member Countries have the obligation of all OIE listed diseases.
Emergency reports
Monthly reports
Yearly reports
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is a specialized
agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to defeat hunger and improve
nutrition and food security.
Its Latin motto, fiat panis, translates to "let there be bread". It was founded in October
1945.
The FAO is headquartered in Rome, Italy and maintains regional and field offices
around the world, operating in over 130 countries.
FAO implements animal health programmes related to the establishment of best practices
in the prevention and control of priority diseases which threaten animal production,
public health and trade through its international and regional networks, animal health
projects and disseminating practical information.
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3. World Health Organization (WHO)
The WHO Constitution, which establishes the agency's governing structure and
principles, states its main objective as "the attainment by all peoples of the highest
possible level of health”.
As of 2020, the WHO has 194 member states: all of the member states of the United
Nations except for Liechtenstein, plus the Cook Islands and Niue.
This was the first Central Act dealing with animal diseases.
This Act was primarily meant for control and prevention of two dreaded diseases
of horses namely farcy and glanders, control of which was very important at that
time from defense as well as law and order point of view, as the large contingent
of horses was maintained by the Army and the Police.
This Act provides for the prevention and control of dourine by empowering the
Inspectors/Veterinary practitioners appointed under this act, to castrate an entire
horse or an ass or to destroy a mare suffering from dourine, for searching infected
premises, their disinfections, etc; for determining compensation to the owner
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according to procedure laid down in this Act to the extent of Rs. 250 and for
prohibiting the use of an affected animal for breeding; and for imposing fines in
the case of default.
Model Byelaws
For prohibiting the throwing of dead bodies of animals in the rivers under section
298 (2)-List I-I (H) of the U.P.
This deals with the problems of stray cattle and wild cattle.
This Act deals with the manufacturing and selling of vaccines, antisera and selling
of diagnostic agents.
Tamil Nadu Animals and Birds in Urban areas (Control and Regulations) Act
(1997)
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Animal Protection Acts
Mischief
Bestiality
Includes any process of introducing air or any substance into the female organ of a milch
animal with the object of drawing off from the animal any secretion of milk.
Employees in any work or labour any animal which by any reason of any disease,
infirmity, wound, sore or other cause, is unfit to be so employed, or being the owner,
permits any such unfit animal to be employed.
The Indian Veterinary Council Act presented by the Ministry of Law, and Company
Affairs was approved by the president of India on 18th August 1984, after which it is
known as “The Indian Veterinary Council Act” 1984.
Object of IVC Act: This Act into the force with the object to regulate veterinary practice and
to establish the Veterinary Council of India, State Veterinary Councils which will maintain
the registered veterinary practitioners and will regulate all other matters related to them.
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ANIMAL DISEASE FORECASTING
(Dr. S. S. Shekhawat, Assistant Professor, PGIVER on 17.09.2020)
The ability to detect outbreaks early is important to minimize morbidity and mortality
through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures.
Forecasting is the monitoring of specific risk parameters helping to predict situations that
could lead to the occurrence of a given disease and its subsequent spread.
The forecasting of disease helps to predict the course of disease, warn health care
workers and adopt control measures to prevent disease outbreaks.
Forecasting is the process of making future predictions using past and present trends.
The goal of a forecasting system is to predict the future course of the disease, giving
health care workers sufficient warning to deal with unexpectedly high or low cases and to
implement control measures to prevent disease outbreaks from happening in the first
place.
In general epidemic forecasting is most useful when it predicts epidemics to 2-6 months
in advance; allowing strategies responses to be made when predicted diseases risk
increases.
Objectives of forecasting
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Three components of animal disease forecasting and early warning systems
Forecasting future risk through the use of predictive models and continued
epidemiological and environmental surveillance.
Early Warning
Early warning is the rapid detection of the introduction of, or sudden increase in any
disease of livestock which has the potential of developing to epidemic proportions and/or
causing serious socio-economic consequences or public health concerns.
It embraces all initiatives and is mainly based on disease surveillance, reporting and
epidemiological analysis.
Major international organizations like FAO, OIE and WHO play lead role in developing
early warning and response systems to make early reporting of diseases easy so that
warning can be given to those who are likely to get affected by disease.
In April 2006, it launched World Animal Health Information System and Database
(WAHIS & WAHID) are unique global animal health database in the field of animal
health information which offers all available data on animal diseases including zoonoses.
It has developed software like Transboundary Animal Disease Information System (TAD
info), Trans boundary Animal Diseases Simulator (TAD simulator) and Good
Emergency Management Practice (GEMP) to help in achieving its goals.
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World Health Organization (WHO)
The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) examine and studies
diseases evaluate the risks and improve international capability to deal with them.
Some initiatives:
1. ProMED-mail: Founded in 1994, ProMED is among the first and the largest publicaly
available electronic, internet based emerging diseases and outbreak reporting systems in
the world which provides users with up-to-date information concerning infectious disease
outbreaks on a global scale.
2. Global early warning and response systems (GLEWS) is a joint system by WHO, FAO
and OIE with an overall objective to improve the early warning and response capacity to
animal disease threats of the three organizations (FAO, OIE and WHO) for the benefit of
the international community.
4. The international health regulations (IHR 2005): these regulations serve to prevent,
protect against, control and provide a public health response to the international spread of
diseases of public health importance in a way necessary interference with international
traffic and trade.
5. Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN): Established in 2000 to assist
the needy countries in initiating the most appropriate response to public health
emergencies of international importance.
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The components of an Early Warning System (EWS):
1. Disease surveillance
2. Developing a model
It is a computer based data system for analysis and displaying digital geographical data in
vector (Point, lines and polygons) and grid (quadratic cells). These data and previous
disease can be used for prediction of diseases.
GPS: is Global Positioning System is satellite based and radio navigation system
provides geo location and time information.
These global tools are the powerful and potential system for addressing important
veterinary health issues at the International, national and local levels.
Spatial analysis capabilities allow users to examine and display health data in new
and highly effective ways.
Disease Surveillance
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Passive Disease Surveillance
Routine disease reports may also come from other sources such as abattoirs and livestock
markets.
Close integration between the activities of field and lab veterinary services.
Utilization of disease information from all potential sources in the public and
private sector
Epidemic livestock diseases are frequently spread by the movement of infected animals.
In the active disease surveillance of such diseases, emphasis must be given to situations
where animals and people are on move.
This includes livestock markets, livestock trading routes, border areas and situations such
as nomadism, transhumance and refugee movements from wars and civil strife.
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Empirical Simulation Modeling
These models are not strictly mathematical models because they do not attempt to
analyze the dynamics of agents in life.
Two important climatic factors are responsible for the development of the parasite i.e.,
This model simulate the progression of the disease in relation to changing climatic
conditions and so can be used to predict losses owing to fascioliosis.
Explanatory models
These are the mathematical models that describe the dynamics (i.e. biological processes)
of parasites and host populations.
The rate of development of parasite from one stage to next stage according to the
temperature that it experiences is estimated.
In many cases deterministic and stochastic models can be formulated for which no
analytical solution is known.
Since simulations studies attempt to mimic the physical process being modeled, they can
be very informative and are therefore are often preferred.
In these methods, random process is simulated using random numbers in order to decide
whether or not an event takes place.
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This is somewhat akin to gambling; hence the name Monte Carlo simulations.
In India, the function of surveillance and control of exotic as well as indigenous animal
disease is undertaken by Department of Animal Husbandry under the Ministry of
Agriculture (GOI).
There is a wide network of 23,303 polyclinics, 27543 veterinary aid centres and 250
disease diagnostic labs and 26 vaccine producing units (19 under government and 7 under
private sector) through the country.
There are four quarantine stations at New Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata.
These stations also provide export certificates of international standards for livestock and
products exported from India.
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National Level facilities by the Indian Government:
It has been authorized by the Government to diagnose and suggest suitable control
measures to exotic and emerging animal diseases which gain entry into the country
through international borders.
It is safe for handling high risk (risk group 4) and exotic animal pathogens like HPAI.
Since its conception, PD-ADMAS has played a crucial role in up gradation of animal
disease surveillance in India.
It has played a major role in Rinderpest eradication and is now targeting other important
livestock diseases like PPR, Brucellosis, Swine flu, Swine fever, anthrax etc.
It has created a national directory of 6.39 lakh villages for critical epidemiological
sampling frames.
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Various Schemes/Projects by the GOI to strengthen Disease Surveillance in India
NADRES, a web based dynamic and interactive livestock disease rational database, was a
combined outcome of a project on weather based animal disease forecast (WB-ADF) supported
by GIS for the national level disease forecasting by passive surveillance using data generated by
state animal husbandry and other departments and the ‘Animal Health Information System
through Disease Monitoring and Surveillance (AHIS-DMS) which generated active surveillance
data through village surveys.
It was formally launched by NIVEDI for national level disease forecasting for the first time in the
country.
The disease situation can be predicted two months in advance at district level so that
preventive measures can be taken well in time by concerned authorities.
It is a system of disease reporting through SMS, email and web based interface.
It links block, district and state with a central agency for better monitoring and control of
transboundary diseases.
This programme will enable veterinary authorities to closely monitor, control and eradicate
animal diseases, particularly those of a trans boundary nature.
NADRS is being implemented by the DADF during 2010-11 through the NIC.
Around 143 animal diseases scheduled in the Prevention and Control of Infectious and
Contagious Diseases in Animals Act, 2009 are included in this reporting system.
The ISDP is a disease surveillance scheme was initiated by the World Bank under Ministry of
Health and Family Affairs.
It is a major National Health Programme under National Health Mission for all States & UTs with
key objective to strengthen/ maintain decentralized based IT enabled disease surveillance system
for epidemic prone diseases to monitor disease trends and to detect and respond to outbreaks in
early rising phase through trained Rapid Response Team (RRTs).
A Central Disease Surveillance Unit and a State Surveillance Unit in each state is set up under the
project to collect and analyze relevant data.
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Ecology of Disease
(Dr. S. S. Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER on 24.09.2020)
1. Ecology
Ecology is the branch of biology which deals with the interaction between various forms
of living beings and their macro environments and with the factors associated with
environmental scattering of populations.
The study of animals and plants in relation to their habits and habitation is ecology.
The study of a disease’s ecology (also termed as natural history) is frequently a part of
epidemiological investigations.
b. The use of knowledge of a disease’s ecology to predict when and where a disease
may occur, and to enable the development of suitable control techniques.
2. Population ecology
It deals with growth patterns of populations’ measures statistically death and birth rates
and factors which influence them.
Breeding efficiency, and fertility and pregnancy rates are important parameters of
population ecology.
3. Applied ecology
Applied ecology has assumed special importance in view of rapid industrialization and
mass migration of populations.
Radiation hazards, depletion of ozone layer and pollution of the atmosphere by gases are
all parts of applied ecology.
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4. Biotope
The smallest spatial unit or geographical area providing uniform conditions of life is
termed biotope.
An organism’s biotype, therefore describes its location (It is like address of an organism).
For example: Caeca of chicken for coccidian or an area of poorly drained land for
Fasciola hepatica infection of cattle or rat burrow for Leptospira spp.
The Aggregation of all living species (animals and plants) inhabiting an environment
(biotype, habitat) is called a biotic community or biocenosis.
The biotope is constituted of non-living elements and vegetation. With animals (the
biocenosis), it forms the ecosystem.
6. Ecosystem
Ecosystem is an area which is characterized by it’s physical and climatic features as well
as by animals and plants occupy them. The unique interacting complex is called an
ecosystem.
o Biotope
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Trophic levels in ecosystem
Ecological Pyramids
The different modes of nutrition that are found in animals occupying different trophic
levels can be illustrated by constructing ecological pyramids.
o Pyramids of numbers
o Pyramid of energy
o Pyramid of biomass
Pyramids of numbers
Pyramid of energy
Pyramid of biomass
o Distribution
The size of animal populations depends on availability of food and mates, and species
breeding potential.
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7.1 The distribution of populations
Megatherms Continuous high temp. & Tropical rain forests A (rainy with no
(Most heat) abundant moisture winter)
Mesotherms Moderate temp. & moisture Temperate deciduous C (rainy climates with
(middle heat) forest severe winters)
Microtherms Less heat & moisture, Boreal forest D (rainy climates with
(little heat) tolerate long cold winters severe winters)
7.1.2 Biomes
Several ecosystem join together to form biome. The earth can be divided into 9
terrestrial biomes which include tundra, deserts, grasslands, savanna & tropical
forests.
It states that animals of different ancestral stock evolve similar features to suit
similar environments.
For example: The distribution of Rift valley fever (a virus disease of sheep and
cattle) is associated with the wetter African ecological zones. This may be related
to abundance of mosquito vectors in these zones.
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7.2 Regulation of Population size
The population becomes stable and balanced, with the rate of reproduction equaling the
death rate.
Populations are brought into balance by competition for the resources of habitat, the most
common of which is food.
7.2.3 Dispersal
In some parts of the world, there may be dramatic seasonal variations in climate.
An Australian species grasshopper over winters in its egg. The warmth of the
spring causes the eggs to hatch.
The adults that develop then lay eggs as long as the weather is wet. A drought
kills all of the adults. This is not density-dependent; it occurs long before
competition occurs.
Such insects survive only by dispersal over large areas to different climates so
that at least some are in an area that is wet.
7.2.4 Predation
Predation has an obvious possible role in controlling the size of populations, but
most of the evidence suggests that it is not true for large animals because
predators take only sick and weak and young animals.
Infectious agent can be divided into two groups according to their generation
dynamics:
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Microparasites
Macroparasites
Microparasites: Multiply directly when inside the host increasing the level of
parasitism. Example: viruses, bacteria and protozoa.
Macroparasites: Do not increase the level of parasitism, grow in the host but
multiply by producing infective stages which are released from the host to new
infective hosts. Example: Helminthes and arthropods.
Certain animals have natural restriction to the area over which they roam, i.e., is
their home range.
They may control the population and has implications for the transmission of
infectious diseases.
For example: Rats are the maintenance hosts of the rickettsial disease scrub
typhus. Trombiculid mites are the vectors; they parasitize mammals and birds.
The small home range of the rats results in mite's life cycle being restricted to
small areas, called ‘mite islands’. When mites are affected with the rickettsia,
localized endemic areas of scrub typhus, associated with mite islands, occur.
7.2.7 Territoriality
The part of animal’s home range that it defends aggressively from invaders is the
animals territory. This behavioral response is territoriality.
A social hierarchy called the ‘peck order’ was discovered among birds in 1920’s.
When crowding occurs, the socially weaker animals are forced out. This may be a
population control mechanism.
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7.2.9 The Wynne-Edwards hypothesis
Such experimentally stressed animals and those that are naturally stressed have
hypertrophied adrenals, indicative of the general adaption syndrome.
7.2.10 The implications of disease occurrence of the distribution and control of populations
The distribution, the home range of animals, and other behavioral activities of
hosts of infectious agents affect the latter’s transmission.
Similarly, rabid foxes behavior depends on the type of rabies that they display;
foxes with dumb rabies may seek a solitary existence, whereas furious rabies may
cause foxes to approach other animals readily.
8. Niche
“The struggle of a species against other competitive fauna and environmental factors for
its survival leads it to acquire a distinct spatial distribution in nature which is called
niche”.
It denotes the place and functional role of a species within a biocenosis or ecosystem.
If the biotope of an organism is its address, then the niche reflects the position of
profession mentioned in the address.
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8.1 Lotka-Volterra equations
Logistic equation for each species to find the relative size of each population
produces pair of equations that were derived independently in us by Lotka (1925)
and in Italy by Volterra (1931).
These equations are therefore called Lotka-Volterra equations. They are derived
for varying degree of competition. The conclusion drawn from these equations is
fundamental importance of ecology.
That competition will exclude all but one species from a particular position
defined by an animal’s feeding habits, physiology, mechanical habits and
behavior. This position is ‘animal’s niche’. The principle of competitive exclusion
can be summarized as “one species, one niche”.
Example: Giraffes, Thompson’s gazelles and wild beests are sympatric species in East
Africa.
They avoid competition for food: The giraffe, with its long neck, feeds high up; the
gazella and wild beest, although of similar stature, eat differently: the gazella eats ground
hugging leaves, while the wildbeest eats side shoots.
“Character must diverge when closely related species live in the same region.”
Example: when two species of Paramecium, are kept in the same test tube, one species
has changed its mode of living to inhabit only the top half of the test tube, while the other
species had moved to the bottom of the tube, thus avoiding competition.
Lice tend to be host-species-specific; pig lice do not live on man or dogs, and vice-versa.
By being host-specific, species of lice avoid competition: they have their own niche.
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8.4.2 Intracellular parasitism
Intracellular parasites occupy a niche in cells. They include all viruses, some bacteria
(e.g., Brucella spp., Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rickettsiae) and some protozoa (e.g.,
Babesia spp).
Studies in India have shown that the presence, in a human community, of one type of
respiratory adenovirus prevents infection with other types even though the latter are
common in surrounding communities.
This is because the first type occupies a niche (Lower respiratory tract), which therefore
cannot be filled by other agents.
A particular biome contains different types of animals and plants. Some are large, others
are small. Reasons for these variations have been suggested by ecological studies.
Elton noted what the foxes ate in summer and the winter. In summer, the foxes ate birds.
The birds ate berries, tundra, leaves and insect. The insect also eat leaves. Thus Elton
noted that there was food chain.
Animals fed at different levels in the food chain. These levels are termed as trophic
levels.
Moving down the food chain (e.g., from foxes to insects), the animals were abundant.
There were more birds than foxes, and more insects than birds.
Helminth diseases for which there definitive and intermediate hosts, are frequently
transmitted via food webs.
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Example:
The tapeworm, Echinococcus granulosus, includes the sheep as an intermediate host and
the dog as definitive host.
The cysts in the liver and lungs of the intermediate host are transmitted to dogs when the
latter eat sheep offal; hence the recommendations that raw sheep offal should not be fed
to dogs.
10. Ecosystem
“An association of a biocenosis with the physical environment including the soil is called
an ecosystem.”
autos=‘oneself’ or ‘itself’
anthropos= ‘man’
An anthropurgic ecosystem is one created by man (strictly it can also mean ‘creating
man’.)
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10.1.3 Synanthropic ecosystems
anthropos=man
“An ecological climax traditionally is said to have occurred when plants, animals,
microbes, soil and macroclimate have evolved to a stable, balanced relationship”.
Characteristically, when infections are present, they too are stable and therefore are
usually endemic. Also, the balance between host and parasite usually results in inapparent
infections. Such stable situations can be disrupted frequently by man resulting in
epidemics.
Example: Blue tongue, a virus disease of sheep, was recognized only after the
importation of European breeds of sheep into South Africa towards the end of 19 th
century.
The virus however, was present in indigenous sheep before that time, but was part of an
ecological climax in which it produced only inapparent infections. The importation of
exotic sheep represented a disturbance of the stable climax.
A climax involving endemic infections agents indicates that all the factors for
maintenance and transmission of the agent are present.
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10.2 Ecological interfaces
The mosquito, Aedes simpsoni- bridges the interface between the autochthonous
forest ecosystem and anthropurgic cultivated savannahs (transmits disease
between apes and man)
Finally the urban mosquito, Aedes aegypti- can maintain an urban cycle in man
(transmit virus between men).
People who enter forests may also contract the infection from A. africanus.
“An ecological mosaic is a modified patch of vegetation created by man, within a biome
that has reached a climax”.
Example:
Clearing of forest encourages, a close cover of weeds on the ground creating conditions
that are favorable for the incursions of field rats with mites infected with scrub typhus
which form mite islands and that local areas become endemic for scrub typhus.
Example:
The helminth infection, loiasis, is transmitted by arthropods between man, living in small
forest clearings, and canopy dwelling monkeys.
However, transmission does not always occur in the mosaics because suitable vector may
not be available.
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11. Landscape Epidemiology (Medical Ecology, Horizontal Epidemiology, Medical
Geography)
“The study of diseases in relation to the ecosystems in which they are found is landscape
epidemiology”.
Investigations are frequently qualitative, involving the study of the ecological factors that
affect the occurrence, maintenance and, in the case of infectious agents, transmission of
disease.
This contrasts with the quantitative associations between specific diseases and the
hypothesized factors- sometimes termed ‘Vertical epidemiology’.
11.1 Nidi
The Nidus (Pl. Nidi) is small foci which is the natural home of causative organism,
therefore of infection/disease.
Nidality: (natural nidality) Process by which a pathogen can persist in well-defined nidi
associated with specific climatic, geographic, and ecological conditions. Example:
Nidality of plague in Iran.
For some pathogens, certain regions offer climatic and ecological conditions favorable to
one or more species acting as reservoir or vector. Disease occurrence may then be
dependant on availability of these reservoirs or vectors. For example: Rocky Mountain
spotted fever, a rickettsial disease of rodents transmitted by ticks, limited to specific areas
of North America.
Nidus (of a disease): (Focus of a disease, natural focus of a disease, natural environment
of a disease, nosogenic territory).
An area that has ecological, social and environmental conditions that can support a
disease is a nosogenic territory.
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11.3 Nosoarea
Example: Britain is a nosogenic territory for rabies and FMD, but is not a nosoarea for
these diseases, because the microbes are prevented from entering the country by
quarantine of imported animals.
Landscape epidemiology is founded on the concept that if the nidality of disease is based
on ecological factors then
Example: Leptospirosis
a. It is known that the prevalence of Leptospira, serovar ballum, in the brown rat is
density dependent; an estimation of the number of rats inhabiting an area enables
a prediction of the prevalence of serovar ballum infections.
c. If the rubbish damp is well managed then the rat population is likely to be small,
and any rats present are unlikely to constitute a maintenance of population for this
leptospiral serovar.
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Measures and Patterns of disease occurrence
(Dr. Surendra Singh Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER on 01.10.2020)
Endemic
Epidemic
Pandemic
Sporadic
1. Endemic (enzootic)
Endemic disease represents clustering of disease event in place but not in time.
Depending upon the percentage of population affected, the degree of endemicity may be:
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2. Epidemic
An epidemic is an occurrence of an infectious or non-infectious disease to a level in
excess of the expected level.
It is occurrence of a disease or any other health related event affecting a number of
individuals in clear excess of what would be expected for a specific region and period of
time.
Epidemic is a relative term and denotes clustering of disease in both place and time.
Epidemicity represents an unstable host-agent relationship.
Epidemic may be
i. Point epidemic- originates from a common source and occurs within an incubation
period.
ii. Propagating epidemic – primary cases excrete the infectious agent to infect the
susceptible individual constituting secondary cases.
Outbreak
An outbreak is the occurrence of cases of an illness or specific health related behaviour or
event, clearly in excess of normal expectancy in a community in a specified time period.
An outbreak is limited or localized to a village, town or close institution (farm).
However, when the magnitude could involve wider geographic areas, even beyond one
district, it is called an epidemic.
3. Pandemic
Serious human pandemics have included plague in the middle ages, cholera in the 19 th
century, and influenza soon after the First World War.
4. Sporadic
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Sporadic can indicate either a single case or a cluster of cases of a disease or infection
(without obvious disease) that is not normally present in area.
5. Exotic
Those diseases which have entered a country from foreign lands are called exotic.
Example: Bovine tuberculosis and brucellosis for Denmark; fox rabies for Britain.
6. Exzootic
A disease which is has been eliminated or stamped out from a country is known as an
exzootic disease.
Epinortic
The temporal changes and fluctuations in disease occurrence can be classified into
The best known short term fluctuation in the occurrence of a disease is an epidemic.
Types of epidemics
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These are also known as “point source” epidemics. Eg. An epidemic of food poisoning.
Sometimes the exposure from the same source may be prolonged continuous, repeated or
intermittent not necessarily at the same time or place.
b. Propagated epidemics
A propagated epidemic is most often of infectious origin and results from person to
person transmission of an infectious agent (e.g., epidemics of hepatitis and polio).
A. Seasonal trend
A seasonal trend is a special case of cyclic trend, where the periodic fluctuations in
disease incidence are related to particular seasons.
B. Cyclical trends
Cyclical trends are associated with regular, periodic fluctuations in the level of disease
occurrence.
They are associated with periodic changes in the size of the susceptible host population
and or effective contact, and may produce recurrent epidemics or endemic pulsations.
Secular trends occur over a long period of time and represent a long term interaction
between host and parasite.
If a balance occurs, then a stable, endemic level of disease is maintained if the interaction
is biased to the host, then there is gradual decrease in disease occurrence and if the
interaction is biased to the parasite, there is gradual increase in disease occurrence.
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Upwards trends may also result from the intervention of man and changing human habits.
Eg. Coronary heart disease.
An epidemic represents not only the clustering of cases over a period of time, but
clustering of cases in defined area.
Contagious can also be applied, in general sense, to the spatial clustering of disease,
whether or not it is infectious.
8. Epidemic Curve
It is the representation of new cases of a disease by graph, with the new number of cases
on vertical or Y- axis, and calendar time on horizontal or X- axis.
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Measures of disease occurrence
Epidemiological information on existing and required levels of herd health and
productivity is necessary to monitor losses and to evaluate the ongoing health
management programmes.
Ratio
A ratio is a relative amount of two quantities expressed in terms of dividing one quantity
(numerator) by other (denominator) or simply it is obtained by dividing one amount by
another.
In any epidemiological investigation, the term ratio is measurement where the numerator
is not drawn from the denominator i.e.,
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠
Foetal death ratio= 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
Rate
Rate =
The population rates of affected animals are estimated by calculating the incidence rate
(IR) or prevalence rate (PR). They signify two distinct trends of disease occurrence.
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1. PREVALENCE
It refers to the number of existing instances of a specific disease or defects or any other
feature (e.g. deformity or presence of antigen) in a given population, at a specified time
period, without differentiating between old and new cases.
Prevalence risk refers to the proportion of the total population that has a specific disease
at a specified point of time.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠
Prevalence= 𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
Point Prevalence refers to the number of cases in a population at a single point in time.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
Point Prevalence= 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
Period Prevalence: It refers to number of disease cases that are known to have occurred
during a specified period of time; for example, a year (annual prevalence).
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
Period Prevalence= 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
Prevalence can take any value between 0 and 1 and is dimensionless. Sometimes, it is
expressed as a percentage.
2. INCIDENCE
Incidence is the number of new cases that occur in known population over a specific
period of time.
Incidence calculates how often initially susceptible individuals transform into disease
cases as they are observe overtime.
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So the number of new cases that originate in a known population over a specified period
should be counted and an incidence case originate when an individual changes from
being susceptible to being diseased.
i. Incidence risk
Incidence risk (also k/n Cumulative incidence): It can be measured as the proportion of
the initially susceptible non-diseased individuals in a herd who transformed into diseased
during a defined time period.
Incidence risk=
Incidence rate (also known as Incidence density): This is the measurement of rapidity
with which new disease cases appears overtime in a particular herd of individuals.
It is measured as the number of new disease cases that appears per unit of individual time
at risk during a defined time period. Here denominator is expressed in units of animal or
person time.
Incidence rate =
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Relationship between P & I
P= I X D
i. Incidence rate
iii. Both
AR is useful for identifying risk factors for a specific disease, restricted to outbreak
investigation.
5. Mortality
Mortality measures are analogous to incidence measures where the relevant outcome is
death associated with, rather than new cases of specific disease.
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For the mortality measurement, the numbers of deaths are included in the numerator.
In contrary to the incidence rate, since an animal is at risk of dying after onset of disease,
animals that develop disease but still alive are counted to include them in denominator.
Mortality rate=
Diseased animal present at the beginning of the period of observation are included in the
denominator.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑒 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
CM=
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
6. Death Rate
When the total mortality rate for all diseases in a defined population is measured instead
of measuring the same for a single disease, then the term death rate is used.
7. Case fatality
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8. Survival
So for a specific period of observation, the sum of all the survival and case fatality should
equal 1 (100%).
𝑵−𝑫
S= 𝑵
Where,
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ANIMAL DISEASE ECONOMICS
(Dr. S. S. Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER Jaipur)
INTRODUCTION
Animal health economics is a discipline, which does not belong to the core of veterinary
science but is becoming more and more important as an aid to decision making on animal
health interventions at various levels.
The levels of decision making on animal health range from the individual animal to the
national herd and finally to international disease control efforts.
Animal disease has economic as well as biological impacts because it affects the well-
being of people.
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Direct losses through diseases may occur as follows
o At output level, disease may either reduce the quantity of output e.g. drop
in egg production, lowered milk yield or reduce the quality of output or
the unit value of the product e.g. poor hides because of tick damage,
reduced milk quality due to mastitis, etc.
The total cost (C) of a disease is the sum of production losses (L) (direct and indirect) and
control of expenditures (E), in mathematical notation: C=L+E.
The cost of a particular disease will vary between production systems, e.g. FMD will
cause higher production losses in dairy herds than in beef herds.
However, within a given production system there will be an inverse relationship between
production losses and control expenditure, i.e., higher treatment and prevention
expenditures should result in lower losses.
In most cases this relationship between losses and expenditure will be non linear
reflecting the non linear nature of the typical production function.
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Main objective of the economic analysis is to get help in decision making when limited
resource allocation is available.
Thus it provides a basis for making rational choices from alternative preventive or control
measures under various circumstances.
Economic cost of a disease can be measured as sum of two variables i.e. Output losses
due to disease and control expenditure to contain the disease.
Four important measures are used for selection of a disease control programme.
1. Net present value (NPV): It is defined as the present value of benefits (B) minus the
present value of costs (C) incurred.
2. Benefit Cost ratio (B/C) : It is present value of benefits divided by the present value of
costs
3. The internal rate of return (IRR): It is the rate of discount (r) and calculated from
equation. If IRR is greater than actual interest rate, the project is commercially viable.
4. Pay-back Period: It refers to the time period which gives the total flow of the return on
the investment that is equal to the total cost incurred compounded to present. In early
years, there will be negative cash flow and later on positive cash flow.
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Production Functions
The relationship between the resources that provide the inputs to production and the
goods and services that comprise the output is called the ‘Production Functions’.
Frequently, these undergo physical transformation (for example, iron ore into steel,
animal feed into body protein) or else facilitate a physical transformation process (for
example, manpower and managerial expertise).
Empirical evidence shows that this relationship is typically non-linear because certain
inputs are typically fixed, and so beyond a certain point an increase in variable input is
associated with a less than proportionate increase in out-put – the law of diminishing
returns.
o Disease impairs the process (i.e., reduces output) and sometimes results in death.
o Thus, there is a loss of efficiency which poses both technical and economic
problems.
The total economic cost of disease can be measured as the sum of output losses and
control expenditures.
A reduction in output is a loss because it is benefit that is either taken away (e.g., when
milk containing antibiotic residues is compulsorily discarded) or unrealized (e.g.,
decreased milk yield).
Expenditures, in contrast are increases in input, and are usually associated with disease
control.
Examples of control expenditures are veterinary intervention which may be used either
therapeutically or prophylactically and increased use of agricultural labour.
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Optimum Control Strategies
Bovine mastitis is considered to be the most important disease affecting dairy cattle.
The costs and benefits of disease control campaigns can be assessed using several
methods including gross margin analysis and partial budgeting.
Partial farm budgets have been used to assess the suitability of control strategies
(notably against endemic diseases such as mastitis and internal parasitism) on
individual farms.
‘Partial’ indicates that assessment is restricted to the factors that are likely to
change as a result of the procedural changes.
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Following are four main components of partial farm budget.
The change should be adopted if sum of (f1) and (c1) is greater than that of (f2) and (c2).
It has been used widely in veterinary medicine to assess national animal disease
control campaigns against epidemic and sporadic diseases.
Internalities (private costs and benefits) are those that accrue directly to an investment
project. Costs and benefits accrue to others are termed externalities.
o Internalities
o Externalities
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Discounting
The value of a sum of money now is greater than the same sum of money at a later date
because it could be invested now to produce a larger sum in the future as interest accrues.
If cost and benefits, spread over several years are to be compared, then must be adjusted
to calculate their value now.
Shadow prices
The social value of a benefit may not always be the market price. For example, a litre of
milk is valued at its market price by the farmer. However, the lower value may be due to
surplus milk production.
A national disease control campaign that resulted in increased milk production would
therefore use the value of the milk, termed a shadow price, in economic evaluation.
A fairly large amount of quantitative information has to be compiled in order to carry out
a sound economic evaluation of animal disease control at national or even at regional
level.
These data requirements can be classified under the following seven headings:
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Strategies of Disease Management: Prevention, Control and
Biosecurity
(Dr. S. S. Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER Jaipur on 15.10.2020)
Prevention
Prevention of disease in epidemiological sense means all measures to exclude disease
from an unaffected population of animals. There are three types of prevention
– Primary
– Secondary
– Tertiary
Primary prevention
o Quarantine
o Vaccination
Secondary prevention
Includes those activities designed to detect disease process as early as possible before
clinical disease occurs.
Tertiary prevention
Prevention by treatment
Control
Control is defined as all measures used to reduce the frequency of illness already present
in population, by reducing or eliminating causes of illness, ultimately to levels of little or
no consequences.
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Eradication
Defined as a bolder directed action in which the object is the extinction of species of
infectious microorganisms.
Biosecurity
Biosecurity is a strategic and integrated approach to analysing and managing relevant
risks to human, animal and plant life and health and associated risks for the environment.
Biosecurity covers food safety, zoonoses, the introduction of animal and plant diseases
and pests, the introduction and release of living modified organisms and their products
and the introduction and management of invasive alien species.
Animal biosecurity may protect organisms from infectious agents or non infectious
agents such as toxins or pollutants, and can be executed in areas as large as a nation or as
small as a local farm.
Animal biosecurity takes into account the epidemiological triad for disease occurrence:
the individual host, the disease, and the environment in contributing to disease
susceptibility.
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It aims to improve nonspecific immunity of the host to resist the introduction of an agent,
or limit the risk that an agent will be sustained in an environment at adequate levels.
Biocontainment works to improve specific immunity towards already present pathogens.
Two basic Biosecurity measures for protecting livestock from diseases are
Other preventive measures include proper nutrition, sanitation, and controlling animal and
human traffic on and off the farm. If disease occurs, control measures include early detection
and treatment.
All the infected animals must be separated from the healthy animals.
Animals should not be taken out for grazing on drinking water or to cattle fair for sale
and purchase.
4. Vaccination:
During FMD outbreak, ring vaccination can be followed, that means vaccination of
animals in area surrounding the infected region to provide a barrier against spread of
infection.
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5. Chemotherapy:
Antibiotics, anthelmintic and other drugs can be used to treat sick animals for control of
disease.
Thorough cleaning and disinfection of sheds in addition to proper disposal of dung and
debris should be done.
After PM the died animal should be buried deep inside the earth and covered with thick
lime on it.
7. Reporting:
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STRATEGIES OF DISEASE CONTROL AND ERADICATION
o Doing nothing
o Selective slaughter
o Depopulation
o Quarantine
o Mass treatment
o Mass immunization
o Control of vectors
o Disinfection of fomites
o Niche filling
o Genetic improvement
1. Doing nothing:
The incidence of the disease might decrease due to natural changes in host parasite
relationship without intervention of man e.g. blue tongue does not occur in winter
because culicoides species cannot survive.
2. Selective slaughter:
This method is followed in early stages of eradication programme or if agent spreads very
slowly.
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3. Depopulation
The whole population including the infected as well as uninfected and in contact animals
are sacrificed.
4. Quarantine:
5. Mass treatment:
The mass treatment approach to disease control depends upon the availability of safe and
cheap therapeutic agents.
6. Mass immunization
The interesting areas for future development of mass immunization as a disease control
tool are methods for mass administration of vaccines that dispense with problems of
needle hygiene (such as use of jet injection guns) or that eliminate the need to handle
animal individually.
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7. Movement of host
Animals can be moved from high risk areas where infections are endemic.
Mixed grazing means grazing of the susceptible animal with livestock that are
genetically or immunologically resistant to helminthes reduces pasture contamination to
acceptable levels.
Alternate grazing of a pasture with different species of livestock again reduces pasture
contamination. For example in Norway, annual alternate grazing of sheep and cattle has
reduced Ostertagia spp. and Nematodirus spp. (nematode) to a negligible level in sheep.
9. Control of vectors:
By killing (use of insecticide), destroying the habitat of vectors (burn the bush, drain
water logging area etc.)
Introduction of sterile male mosquito or snail (not vector of schistosomiasis), can control
vector borne diseases.
The presence of one organism within a niche, which can prevent its occupation by
another organism by competitive exclusion.
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12. Improvement in environment, husbandry and feeding:
Livestock rearing has taken a shape of the industry, therefore in an intensive reared
livestock good animal husbandry practices, balanced ration feeding, clean and hygienic
environment play a very vital role in containment of disease.
Disinfecting infected premises, treating an infected animal or removing that from the
animal unit.
Use of caesarian section for birth of uninfected animals and use of uninfected eggs for
hatching are combined techniques termed as minimal disease methods.
These helped in the eradication of enzootic pneumonia from some pig herds in the UK.
Sentinel
Animal that is free of and susceptible to a specific condition and that is monitored during
and/or after being exposed to other animals or an environment suspected of harbouring
this condition.
Examples:
o Rams that are not vaccinated for brucellosis and that are exposed to a herd
where all females are vaccinated.
o Birds kept in cages near water sources in Minnesota and monitored for
influenza.
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15. Education to livestock owner:
This is the most important because awareness of livestock owner about different types of
diseases, their zoonotic and economic importance plus how to keep their animals healthy
and productive and role of disease reporting will, in turn, help the authority in prevention
and control of disease.
o Veterinary infrastructure
o Diagnostic facility
o Adequate surveillance
o Public opinion
o Ecological consequences
o Financial support
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Health:
The WHO describes health as “State of complete physical, mental and social wellbeing
and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity”.
Animal Health:
Population at risk
The notion of population at risk is independent from the exposure to risk factor.
When the population at risk is exposed to the risk factor or disease determinant, this
population at risk of developing the event or pathological phenomenon.
Population that has been effectively subjected to a given risk factor or causal agent,
independently of the fact that it may or may not be susceptible to the disease associated
with the exposure.
Example: For a study on bovine tuberculosis in a herd, the population exposed includes
noninfected and infected animals with TB, because all have been exposed to the risk.
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Notifiable Disease (Reportable Disease)
Disease required to be reported to federal, state, or local health officials when diagnosed,
and whose detection may trigger a set of disease control measures as defined by
government authorities.
Example: FMD, rinderpest, African swine fever, rabies, brucellosis, hog cholera and TB
are examples of notifiable diseases in countries of European countries and in North
America.
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Role of OIE and
Laws on International Trade of Animals and Animal Products
(Dr. S.S. Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER Jaipur)
The Paris (France) based OIE is an international organization concerned with the
global control of animal diseases.
The need to fight animal diseases at global level led to the creation of the OIE through
the international agreement signed on January 25th, 1924 following an outbreak of
rinderpest in Belgium in 1920.
In May, 2003 the office became the World Organization for Animal Health but kept its
historical acronym OIE.
The OIE is the intergovernmental organization responsible for improving animal health
worldwide and has a macro scale reporting system that records data on the major
infectious epidemic diseases of animals throughout the world.
The OIE maintains permanent relations with 75 other international and regional
organizations and has regional and sub-regional offices on every continent.
1. Transparency
ii. Each member country undertakes to report the animal diseases that it
detects on its territory
2. Scientific information
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3. International solidarity
iii. The OIE notably offers expertise to the poorest countries to help them
control animal diseases
4. Sanitary safety
ii. The OIE develops normative documents relating to rules that Member
Countries use to protect themselves from introduction of pathogen and
diseases
iii. The main normative work produced by OIE are : the Terrestrial Animal
Health Code, the Manual of Diagnostic Tests and Vaccines for Terrestrial
Animals, the Aquatic Animal Health Code and Manual of Diagnostic
Tests for Aquatic Animals.
ii. The OIE considers the Veterinary Services as Global Public Good and
their bringing into line with international standards (structures,
organization, resources, capabilities, role of paraprofessionals) as a public
investment priority.
ii. The OIE member countries have decided to provide a better guarantee of
the safety of food of animal origin by creating synergy between the
activities of the OIE and those of CAC.
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The organization is placed under the authority and control of a World Assembly of
Delegates consisting of Delegates by the Government of Member Countries.
The day to day operation of the OIE is managed at HQ situated in Paris (France) and
placed under the responsibility of DG elected by World Assembly of Delegates.
The OIE’s financial resources are derived principally from compulsory annual
contributions backed up by voluntary contributions from Member Countries.
Dr. Monique Eloit (Director General) has been leading this organization since May 26 ,
2015. She began her term in office on January 1, 2016.
It is very important to know the natural history of diseases relevant to trade, the risk of
transmission, and the biological and economic consequences of introduction of pathogen.
The aim in drawing up a single list was to be in line with the terminology of the SPS
Agreement of the WTO, by classifying diseases as specific hazards and giving all listed
diseases the same degree of importance in international trade.
In order to create a single list of notifiable diseases, the OIE defined criteria to examine
the inclusion or not of a given disease in the OIE single list that were approved in May
2004.
In 2005, the first single list composed of former lists A and B was used, and in the same
year, an Ad Hoc Group on disease and pathogenic agents notification was organized to
examine diseases according to the adopted criteria for listing diseases, and proposed a
new list of diseases meeting the criteria that entered into force in 2006.
The list is reviewed on a regular basis and in case of modifications adopted by the World
Assembly of Delegates at its annual General Session, the new list comes into force on 1
January of the following year.
For year 2020, the list includes 117 animal diseases, infections and infestations.
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Terrestrial animal diseases:
Fish diseases – 10
Mollusc diseases – 07
Crustacean diseases- 09
Amphibians – 03
INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS
In the current trend of globalization, animal health measures have increasing importance
to facilitate safe international trade of animals and animal products while avoiding
unnecessary impediments to trade.
In light of this, the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures
(SPS Agreement) encourages the members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to
base their sanitary measures on international standards, guidelines and recommendations,
where they exist.
The OIE is the WTO reference organization for standards relating to animal health
and Zoonoses. The OIE publishes 2 codes (Terrestrial and Aquatic) and 2 manuals
(Terrestrial and Aquatic) as the principle reference for WTO members.
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The Terrestrial Animal Health Code and Aquatic Animal Health Code respectively aim
to assure the sanitary safety of international trade in terrestrial animals and aquatic
animals, and their products.
The Terrestrial Animal Health Code was first published in 1968 and the Aquatic Animal
Health Code was introduced to the public in 1995.
The codes traditionally addressed animal health and Zoonoses, but they have, in recent
years, expanded to cover animal welfare, animal production food safety, consistent with
the expanded mandate of the OIE which is ‘to improve animal health worldwide’.
In 2016 and 2017, during OIE General Session, OIE Members expressed the need for
more concrete guidance and support from the OIE for establishing e-veterinary
certification systems that would improve their participation in international trade.
This lead to the development and approval of the WTO Standards Trade Development
Facility (STDF) project on the ‘Development of a framework to facilitate e-
veterinary certification for international trade on the basis of a single window
system’.
The project aimed to gain a better understating of current practices implemented by some
OIE Members, both developed and developing, as well as relevant work in other
international organizations on e-certification and single window.
The OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code establishes standards for the
improvement of terrestrial animal health and welfare and veterinary public health
worldwide.
Veterinary Authorities should use the standards in the Terrestrial Code to set up
measures providing for early detection, internal reporting, notification, control or
eradication of pathogenic agents, including zoonotic ones, in terrestrial animals
(mammals, birds, reptiles and bees) and preventing their spread via
international trade in animals and animal products, while avoiding unjustified
sanitary barriers to trade.
The OIE standards are based on the most recent scientific and technical
information. Correctly applied, they protect animal health and welfare and
veterinary public health during production and trade in animals and animal
products, and in the use of animals.
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Terrestrial Code content
The standards in the chapters of Section 1 are designed for the implementation of
measures for the diagnosis, surveillance and notification of pathogenic agents.
The standards include procedures for notification to the OIE, tests for international
trade, and procedures for the assessment of the health status of a country, zone or
compartment.
The standards in Section 2 are designed to guide the importing country in
conducting import risk analysis in the absence of OIE recommendations on
particular pathogenic agents or commodities.
The importing country should also use these standards to justify import measures
which are more stringent than existing OIE standards.
The standards in the chapters of Section 5 are designed for the implementation of
general sanitary measures for trade.
They address veterinary certification and the measures applicable by the
exporting, transit and importing countries.
A range of model veterinary certificates is provided to facilitate consistent
documentation in international trade.
Trade requirements
A Member Country may authorize the importation of animals or animal products into its
territory under conditions different from those recommended by the Terrestrial Code.
Members of the WTO should refer to the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and
Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement).
Chapters 5.1. to 5.3. describe the obligations and ethical responsibilities of importing
and exporting countries in international trade.
The OIE aims to include an article listing the commodities that are considered safe for
trade without the need for risk mitigation measures specifically directed against a
particular listed disease, infection or infestation, regardless of the status of the country or
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zone of origin for the agent in question, at the beginning of each listed disease-specific
chapter in Sections 8 to 15.
The measures prescribed should take into account the health status of both exporting
and importing countries, and zones or compartments within them, and be based upon
the standards in the Terrestrial Code.
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GENERAL REQUIREMENTS OF VETERINARY ETHICS AND CERTIFICATION
FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE
PRINCIPLES OF CERTIFICATION
Certification requirements
Because of the likely variations in animal health situations, various options are offered by
the code of the importing countries and only by considering the animal health situation in
the exporting country and transit country or countries can be the importing country
precisely state the requirements which are to be met for imports.
The requirements are mentioned in the model certificates approved by the OIE.
Importing countries should observe the following rules when preparing these
requirements:
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Veterinary Administration of another country necessitates that copies of
these documents are also sent to the Veterinary Administration.
This important procedure avoids delays and difficulties which may arise between traders
and Veterinary Administrations when the authenticity of certificates or permits is not
established.
Chapter 5.1
Article 5.1.1.
The requirements should be included in the model certificates approved by the OIE
which are included from Chapters 5.10. to 5.12.
Certificates should be exact and concise, and should clearly convey the requirements of
the importing country
Article 5.1.2.
Article 5.1.3
Article 5.1.4
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Chapter 5.2
CERTIFICATION PROCEDURES
Article 5.2.1.
Article 5.2.2.
Certifying veterinarians
Article 5.2.3.
Article 5.2.4.
Electronic certification
Chapter 5.3
Article 5.3.1.
The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and role and
responsibility of the OIE
Article 5.3.2.
Article 5.3.3.
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Article 5.3.4.
Article 5.3.5.
Article 5.3.6.
Article 5.3.7.
Article 5.3.8.
Chapter 5.4
Article 5.4.1.
Article 5.4.2.
Article 5.4.3.
Notification
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Article 5.4.4.
Certificate
Article 5.4.5.
Live animals
Article 5.4.6.
Chapter 5.5
Article 5.5.1.
Article 5.5.2.
Article 5.5.3.
Article 5.5.4.
Article 5.5.5.
Chapter 5.6
Article 5.6.1.
Article 5.6.2.
Article 5.6.3.
Article 5.6.4.
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Chapter 5.7
Article 5.7.5.
Chapter 5.8
Article 5.8.1.
Object
Article 5.8.2.
Introduction
Article 5.8.3.
Article 5.8.4.
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Article 5.8.5.
Chapter 5.9
Article 5.9.1.
General principles
Article 5.9.2.
Management policies
Article 5.9.3.
Article 5.9.4.
Article 5.9.5.
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Chapter 5.10
Article 5.10.1.
Notes for guidance on the veterinary certificates for international trade in live
animals, hatching eggs and products of animal origin
Article 5.10.2.
Model veterinary certificate for international trade in live animals and hatching
eggs
Article 5.10.3.
Article 5.10.4.
Article 5.10.5.
Model veterinary certificate for international trade in bees and brood combs
Chapter 5.11
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Chapter 5.12
Chapter 5.13
Article 5.13.1.
Article 5.13.2.
Article 5.13.3.
(Source: www.oie.int)
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Lecture 13
(Dr. S.S.Shekhwat Assistant Professor P.G.I.V.E.R. Jaipur on 29.11.2020)
These postulates have difficulty in dealing with multiple etiological causes, multiple
effects of a single agent, non infectious causes and host or other environmental factors
into account.
1. The proportion of individuals with the disease should be significantly higher in those
exposed to supposed cause than in those who are not.
2. The exposure to the supposed cause should be present more commonly in those with the
disease than in those without the disease, if all the other risk factors are held constant.
3. The number of new cases of the disease should be significantly higher in those exposed
to the supposed cause than in those not so exposed.
4. Temporally, the disease should follow exposure to the supposed cause with the
distribution of incubation periods on a bell shaped curve i.e., typical endemic curve.
5. A spectrum (entire range between two extremities) of host responses, from mild to
severe, should follow exposure to the supposed cause along a logical biological gradient
(dose-response relationship).
6. A measurable host response (e.g. antibody, cancer cell) should appear regularly following
exposure to the supposed cause in those lacking this response before exposure or should
increase in magnitude before exposure.
7. The experimental reproduction of disease should occur with greater frequency in animals
appropriately exposed to the supposed cause than in those not so exposed.
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8. The elimination and modification of the supposed cause should decrease the frequency of
occurrence of disease.
10. All relationship and associations should be biologically and epidemiologically credible
(acceptable/convincing).
Variable – it is any observable event that can vary. In a population some properties vary from
member to member, for example, milk production in cows, breeds of dogs; Theses are called
variables.
Measures of association:
It is of two types:
2. Statistical association, variables are positively statistically associated and they occur
more frequently than would be expected by chance.
Measures of association:
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Disease present Disease absent
Factor/Disease D+ D- Total
F+ (Exposed) a b a+b
F- (Unexposed) c d c+d
a+c b+d n= a+b+c+d
RR (Relative Risk): It is the ratio of incidence of disease (or death) among exposed animals and
the incidence among non exposed animals. It is direct measure of the “strength” of the
association between suspected cause and effect.
RR = a/(a+b) ÷ c(c+d)
RR = a(c+d)/c(a+b)
Odds ratio- It is calculated as the ratio between odds of disease in exposed animals and odds of
disease in unexposed animals.
Odds are the probability that the event will occur divided by the probability that event
will not occur.
Odds = P/1-P
OR = ad/bc
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Disease odds (Exposed/ Disease odds (unexposed) = a/b divided by c/d
OR = ad/bc
Attributable Risk (AR): The attributable risk indicates to the extent to which the incidence of
disease in exposed animals would be reduced if they had not been exposed to risk factors,
assuming that the risk factor is causal. AR indicates to what extent the disease under study can be
attributed to exposure.
AR = a/(a+b) – c/(c+d)
Attributable fraction (AF) : It is the amount of disease in exposed animals due to some specific
factor.
Confounding
It is the effect of an extraneous variable that can wholly or partly account for an apparent
association between variables.
Confounding can produce a spurious association between study variables, or can mask a
real association.
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Example:
Further work showed that the larger the herd being milked, the greater the chance of
contracting leptospirosis.
It was also found that farmers with large herds tended to wear aprons more frequently for
milking than farmers with small herds.
The association between the wearing of aprons and leptospirosis was not causal but was
produced spuriously by the confounding effect of large herd size.
The basic cause of leptospirosis in dairy farmers is not due to wearing apron but due to
large size of herd.
Epidemiological Hypothesis
A hypothesis can be defined as a proposition which can be assessed formally; and after
the assessment or test the hypothesis may either be “accepted” or “rejected”.
In order to formulate a causal hypothesis, three factors are most important on which
information should be collected-
1. Time
2. Place
3. Population
1. Time: The association of disease or outbreak with year, season, month, day or even hour
should be considered.
Such details may provide information on climatic influences, incubation periods and
source of infection e.g. HS outbreak may be associated with rainfall; prevalence of
hemoprotozoan diseases is increased during summer or rainfall.
2. Place: The geographical distribution of a disease may indicate an association with local
geographical, managemental or ecological factors e.g. increased occurrence of
fascioliasis in low lying areas.
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3. Population: The type of animals affected is of considerable importance e.g. theileriosis is
disease of crossbred and exotic cattle; canine parvo virus gastroenteritis is more common
in Dobermans as compared to other breeds and pups are commonly affected than adults.
When the major facts have been established, alternative causal hypothesis can be formulated.
i. Method of difference
I. Method of difference
In some cases there may be two circumstances and a disease may be present in one
circumstance but absent in other.
Again a factor which is present more frequently in the first circumstance is not present in
the second one so frequently.
So, in this case the factor may be considered as a suspected causal factor.
In some circumstances it is found that a factor is common in all the circumstances and a
disease is also common in all those circumstances, then the factor may be causal to that
event.
Circumstance I : Bloat in cattle after accidental feeding on a ripe rice cultivation field.
Circumstance II : Calves suffering from bloat after eating left out rotten cake ad lib.
Circumstance III : Bloat in cattle after feeding the left out rice in a ceremonial occasion.
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III. Method of concomitant variation
Here the hypothesis is formulated with the idea that tries to find out a causal factor whose
frequency as well as the strength varies continuously with the disease frequency in
different situations.
Factors Diseases
In this method the epidemiologist compares the pattern of disease with that of similar
kind of disease which is already understood, because the cause of poorly understood
disease may be similar to the cause of the well understood disease.
For example, a virus is known to be the causative organism for a kind of mammary tumor
in mice and by applying the method of analogy a hypothesis can be developed as a virus
to be responsible for the development of a similar kind of mammary tumor in dogs.
The most important drawback of this method is that sometimes it may be dangerously
misleading and the classical example in this regard is that of the famous epidemiologist,
John Snow, who once claimed that yellow fever is caused by sewage. Just immediately
before that he established that cholera was transmitted by sewage and by analogy he
thought that cholera was associated with overcrowding and yellow fever also occurring in
overcrowded population, so sewage may be causative of yellow fever also. But finally it
was proved wrong and it was established as an arthropod borne viral disease.
Before going for the establishment of a causal association it is important to consider the
following five principles:
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Different biological gradients: If a dose-response relationship can be
found between a factor and a disease, the possibility of factor being causal
is increased.
The success of any research work depends largely on the ‘correctness’ of the
measurements of three categories of variables namely, exposure, outcome and
confounders.
In general, there are mainly three reasons where an epidemiologist may be wrong in his
in recording his measurements of variables as below:
I. His basic technique of measurements may be wrong, due to out of order instruments,
wrong procedures, poorly educated data collectors, etc. and this situation gives rise the
‘measurement error’.
II. While he takes the measurements on two group of individuals, which are to be compared
and at the same time he treats the two groups in a differential manner, then it causes
‘systemic error or bias’
III. In a third situation, the observed association that the researcher have revealed between
the exposure and the outcome variables, is in reality due to a third, indirectly acting
variable and not actually due to association between exposure and outcome variables.
This is called ‘confounding error’.
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Basic Measurement Technique
Any basic measurement technique should fulfill two very important requirements:
Validity
Reliability
I. The measurement technique should be valid. The measurements which the researcher is
making and recording should correctly measure what he really wants to measure.
o Sensitivity, means any subject who actually suffering from a disease should be
identified as positive by the measurement process.
o Specificity means all the individuals who are not having the disease should be
diagnosed as negative by measurement process.
II. Secondly, the measurement process should be reliable. The reliability of a measurement
process is also known as precision or consistency or replicability or repeatability of the
same.
It refers to the ability of the measurement process to give consistent results when repeated
applications are made.
These help in assessing the ability of the test to differentiate between diseased and non
diseased animals (compared with standard/existing test).
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Sensitivity
Sensitivity of the test is the ability of the test to detect diseased animals. It is likelihood
of positive test results in patients to have the disease (true positive).
Specificity
𝑑
Specificity = X 100
(𝑏 + 𝑑)
The probability in both the these cases is expressed as (0-1) or as % Eg. 96% or 0.96%.
Although a test’s sensitivity and specificity are important properties, clinicians should be
more concerned with a test’s predictive value, i.e., the probability that a test result reflects
the true disease status.
Is the probability of person/ animal not having disease when the test is negative.
𝑑
Negative test result = (𝑐+𝑑)
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Crude and specific measures
1. Crude values are expression of the amount of disease and deaths in a population as a
whole without taking in account the structure of the population affected.
2. Specific measures of disease are those that describe disease occurrence in specific
categories of the population related to the host attributes such as age, sex, breed and
method of husbandry etc.
These are calculated in a similar manner to crude ones except that the numerator and
denominator apply to one or more categories of a population with specific host attributes
e.g. age specific incidence rate, breed specific prevalence etc.
Confidence Interval:
A confidence interval indicates how confident we are that our estimate is correct.
We can be 95% sure that the true population value lies within 95% confidence interval.
Bias:
This kind of systematic error and it is intrinsic to the method being used and causes a
repeatable and predictable error for each observation.
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