ND Gain Technical Document 2015
ND Gain Technical Document 2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Contributing Experts
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Gonzalez, Patrick Climate Change Scientist, U.S. National Park Service
Jishan, Liao Research Assistant, University of Notre Dame
Lodge, David Professor, Department of Biological Science, University of Notre Dame
Michael, Edwin Professor, Department of Biological Science, University of Notre Dame
Martinez, Andres Independent Consultant
Mayala, Benjamin PhD candidate, University of Notre Dame
Murphy, Patrick Director of Public Sector Engagement, Palo Alto Research Center
Musumba, Mark Associate Research Scientist, Earth Institute, Columbia University
Regan, Patrick Professor, Department of Political Science, Kroc Institute for International Peace
Studies, University of Notre Dame
Shiao, Tien Sustainability Relations, H&M
Wozniak, Abigail Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame
I. INTRODUCTION
The Notre Dame-Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) Country Index is a free open-
source index that shows a country’s current vulnerability to climate disruptions. It also
assesses a country’s readiness to leverage private and public sector investment for
adaptive actions. ND-GAIN brings together over 74 variables to form 45 core indicators
to measure vulnerability and readiness of 192 UN countries from 1995 to the present
(Due to data availability, ND-GAIN measures vulnerability of 182 countries and
readiness of 184 countries)
Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index moved to the University of Notre Dame in April
2013. It was formerly housed in the Global Adaptation Institute in Washington, D.C. It
now resides within the Climate Change Adaptation Program of the University of Notre
Dame’s Environmental Change Initiative (ND-ECI), a Strategic Research Initiative
focused on “science serving society” and draws on resources from both inside and
outside of the university.
Adaptation is an evolving concept. Our understanding of climate change and the risks it
presents is constantly improving through ongoing research. At ND-GAIN, we strive to
estimate adaptation risk and opportunity using the best available research outputs,
data, and tools. To this end, the index keeps updating whenever it is necessary, and
highlights of each release can be found at http://index.gain.org/about/reference. As we
receive feedback from our users, we also periodically release new tools for data
visualization and analytics.
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This report describes ND-GAIN for its November 2015 release and provides detailed
information on the framework, data sources, and data compilation process used for
producing the Index.
All countries, to different extents, are facing the challenges of adaptation. Due to
geographical location or socio-economic condition, some countries are more
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than others. Further, some countries are
more ready to take on adaptation actions by leveraging public and private sector
investments, through government action, community awareness, and the ability to
facilitate private sector responses. ND-GAIN measures both of these dimensions:
vulnerability and readiness.
TERMINOLOGY
Vulnerability
Propensity or predisposition of human societies to be negatively impacted by climate
hazards
ND-GAIN assesses the vulnerability of a country by considering six life-supporting
sectors: food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat and infrastructure.
Each sector is in turn represented by six indicators that represent three cross-cutting
components: the exposure of the sector to climate-related or climate-exacerbated
hazards; the sensitivity of that sector to the impacts of the hazard and the adaptive
capacity of the sector to cope or adapt to these impacts.
Exposure: The extent to which human society and its supporting sectors are stressed
by the future changing climate conditions. Exposure in ND-GAIN captures the physical
factors external to the system that contribute to vulnerability.
Sensitivity: The degree to which people and the sectors they depend upon are affected
by climate related perturbations. The factors increasing sensitivity include the degree
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of dependency on sectors that are climate-sensitive and proportion of populations
sensitive to climate hazard due to factors such as topography and demography.
Adaptive capacity: The ability of society and its supporting sectors to adjust to reduce
potential damage and to respond to the negative consequences of climate events. In
ND-GAIN adaptive capacity indicators seek to capture a collection of means, readily
deployable to deal with sector-specific climate change impacts.
Readiness
Readiness to make effective use of investments for adaptation actions thanks to a safe
and efficient business environment
Economic Readiness: The investment climate that facilitates mobilizing capitals from
private sector.
Governance Readiness: The stability of the society and institutional arrangements that
contribute to the investment risks. A stable country with high governance capacity
reassures investors that the invested capitals could grow under the help of responsive
public services and without significant interruption.
Social readiness: Social conditions that help society to make efficient and equitable use
of investment and yield more benefit from the investment
To identify indicators that reflect climate vulnerability and adaptation readiness, the
ND-GAIN team surveyed the most recent literature and consulted scholars, adaptation
practitioners, and global development experts. The indicators included in ND-GAIN
were chosen to fit within the structure described above and to meet the following
criteria:
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actionable through adaptation, as they are mostly driven by biophysical factors and
are only actionable through greenhouse gas abatement (climate change mitigation).
• When possible, indicators should have the potential to be scaled down from
country to sub-country level, to support the possibility of assessing climate
vulnerability and adaptation readiness at finer scales.
• Two kinds of indicators are explicitly excluded from ND-GAIN. The first is Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) per capita or any of its closely related measures. GDP per
capita is commonly used in indices relating to development and poverty (e.g.,
UNDP's Human Development Index), but including it in ND-GAIN would doubly
penalize many developing countries. It is well known that less developed countries
also have low adaptive capacity and readiness, and high sensitivity. ND-GAIN does
show a high correlation with a county’s economic status; and a version of ND-GAIN
that adjusts the index score using GDP per capita. Second, ND-GAIN does not
include data on the impact of recent climate-related disasters. Instead, disaster
data provide an independent source of information for decision-making and also
for possible index validation.
• The data selected that quantifies the ND-GAIN indicators have the following
features to ensure transparency, reliability and consistency:
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Figure 1 Summary of ND-GAIN Vulnerability and Readiness Indicators
There are many systematic methods for converting data into an index. For instance:
scaling data into similar ranges of values, including normalizing to a common mean and
standard deviation; setting base low and high values for the data (e.g. from the
observed minimum to the observed maximum; or from 0 to 100% compliance etc.), and
scaling data either linearly or after transformation to a prescribed range (e.g. 0 to 1; 0
to 100; -1 to +1); or converting the data to ranked values.
The 45 ND-GAIN indicators come from 74 data sources that provide 74 underlying
data. 20 of the 45 indicators come directly from the sources; the rest 25 are computed
by compiling underlying data. The methods used to compute these 25 indicators are
detailed in Section IV of this report.
Step 1. Select and collect data from the sources (called “raw” data), or compute
indicators from underlying data. Some data errors (i.e. tabulation errors coming from
the source) are identified and corrected at this stage. If some form of transformation is
needed (e.g. expressing the measure in appropriate units, log transformation to better
represent the real sensitivity of the measure etc.) it happens also at this stage.
Step 2. At times some years of data could be missing for one or more countries; some
times, all years of data are missing for a country. In the first instance, linear
interpolation is adopted to make up for the missing data. In the second instance, the
indicator is labeled as "missing" for that particular country, which means the indicator
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will not be considered in the averaging process. However, it is important to have most
of the UN countries present in the data.
Step 3. This step can be carried out after of before Step 2 above. Select baseline
minimum and maximum values for the raw data. These encompass all or most of the
observed range of values across countries, but in some cases the distribution of the
observed raw data is highly skewed. In this case, ND-GAIN selects the 90-percentile
value if the distribution is right skewed, or 10-percentile value if the distribution is left
skewed, as the baseline maximum or minimum.
Step 4. Whenever applicable, set proper reference data points for measures. The
reference points stand for the status of perfection, i.e. the best performance that
represents either zero vulnerability or full readiness. In some cases reference points
were the baseline minimum or maximum identified in Step 3. For certain measures,
based on the adaptation or development practices, reference points were set by
common sense. For example, the reference points for child malnutrition is 0%, for
reliable drinking water is 100% and so on. If data sources have reference points by
default for a measure, these are adopted. For instance, the reference point for the
measure “Quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure” is 5, because the raw
data are ranged from 1 to 5 with 5 being the highest score(See reference points section
below).
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Step 5. Scale “raw” data to “score”, ranging from 0 to 1, to facilitate the comparison
among countries and the comparison to the reference points. Scaling follows the
formula below:
"raw" −
"" = |"
" − |
−
The parameter of “direction” has two values, 0 when calculating score of vulnerability
indicator; 1 when calculating score of readiness indicators, so that a higher
vulnerability score means higher vulnerability (“worse”) and a higher readiness score
means higher readiness (“better”).
Step 6. Compute the score for each sector by taking the arithmetic mean of its 6
constituent indicators (all scaled 0-1, weighted equally). Then calculate the overall
vulnerability score by taking the arithmetic mean of the 6 sector scores.
Step 7. Follow the same process as Step 6 to calculate the overall readiness score.
Step 8. Compute the ND-GAIN score by subtracting the vulnerability score from
the readiness score for each country, and scale the scores to give a value 0 to 100,
using the formula below:
− =
− !
" + 1% ∗ 50
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THE ND-GAIN MATRIX
Red (Upper Left) Quadrant: Countries with a high level of vulnerability to climate
change but a low level of readiness. These countries have both a great need for
investment to improve readiness and a great urgency for adaptation action.
Yellow (Lower Left) Quadrant: Countries with a low level of readiness but also a low
level of vulnerability to climate change. Though their vulnerability may be relatively
low, their adaptation may lag due to lower readiness.
Blue (Upper Right) Quadrant: Countries with a high level of vulnerability to climate
change and a high level of readiness. In these countries, the need for adaptation is large,
but they are ready to respond. The private sector may be more likely participate in
adaptation here than in countries with lower readiness.
Green (Lower Right) Quadrant: Countries with low level of vulnerability to climate
change and a high level of readiness. These countries still need to adapt (none of them
have a perfect vulnerability score) but may be well positioned to do so.
1Note that this does not mean that there will be the same number of countries in each quadrant. Highly ready, often
wealthy, countries tend to have lower vulnerabilities and vice versa, so proportionately more countries fall in the
green and red quadrants.
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III. ND-GAIN INDICATORS
Table 3 and Table 4 list all the 45 indicators used in the ND-GAIN Index.
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Table 2.ND-GAIN Readiness Indicators
Component Indicators
This section details ND-GAIN’s indicators and is organized in the following manner:
Indicator Name
Description: Description of the indicator.
Calculation: Description of the approach followed to calculate the indicator, if data from
the original source(s) need to be processed.
Coverage: An estimate of the number of countries for which data are available.
Time Series: Estimate of data reporting (Missing years are assumed with a simple linear
interpolation. If the first years of data or the most recent years of data are used, constant
values equal to the first or last reported datum are assumed).
VULNERABILITY INDICATORS
2The Doing Business indicators is composed of 10 sub-indicators. See Section IV for details
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FOOD
Rationale: Rosenzweig, et al. (2013) compared results from seven crop models against
agricultural impacts of climate change expressed by yield changes through the end of
the century. ND-GAIN includes the average impacts on three crops (rice, wheat and
maize) as an indication of the climate impacts on agriculture sector and food supply
because these three crops make up two thirds of human food consumption (FAO).
Calculation: The projected change is calculated by the percent change from the
baseline projection of annual average of actual cereal yield in 1980-2009 to a future
projection in 2040-2069 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario(about RCP emission
scenarios see IPCC, 2014). Data for baseline and future are the average yield
productions from the five crop models. The conversion from models to an Index
follows a process whose explanation is beyond the goals of this report. Please contact
the ND-GAIN team for obtaining such information.
Description: An indication of food demand by the mid-century. The projection data are
from the World Bank Health Nutrition and Population Statistics (HNPStats)which
provides country-level projection of population up to 2050.
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lack of data on diet shifts, the projection of population growth is a simple
approximation of food demand in the future.
Calculation: Average population growth is calculated by the percent change from the
baseline population size in 2010 to the average predicted population size during the
period 2020-2050, by country.
Notes: ND-GAIN uses population growth, since the data that projects the future
meat/dairy consumption still lack global coverage. However, in future ND-GAIN
releases, including the future projection of meat/dairy consumption, it may be possible
to have more complete indication on food stress in terms of food demand.
Notes: Cereals do not cover all food types, but they are commonly taken as a
comprehensive indicator of sensitivity to global markets.
Rationale: The vast majority of the world’s poor live in rural areas (Global Monitoring
Report, 2013), and agriculture is the major source of income and near-term
development for the rural poor(World Bank, 2014). Therefore, a high proportion of
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rural population is indicative of a strong dependency on subsistence, or near
subsistence, farming. Subsistence farmers are more vulnerable to climate shocks
(Thorlakson et al., 2012).
Calculation: The indicator of agricultural capacity takes the average of the two best
(i.e. least vulnerable) scores of the four measures of agricultural technology described
above. Using four measures allows for missing data but also for situations such as
where irrigation or fertilizer is less necessary because of rainfall or good quality soils.
Data Source:
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Time Series: Irregular data reporting for the four measures, ranging from annual
update to 5-year update
Notes: In some cases certain agricultural technologies, like pesticides and fertilizers,
may be maladaptive, since the applications may either to some extent do more harm
than good to crop productions or may increase greenhouse gas emissions. As an
indicator of capacity, this indicator does not necessarily suggest adaptive solutions.
Coverage: 137countries in the original set but expanded to 164 countries after
assumption about the child malnutrition rate in OECD countries
Time Series: Irregular data reporting ranging from annually to every 5+ years
WATER
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Schaake, 1982). ND-GAIN uses the projected change of annual runoff as a proxy to
measure the climate impacts to surface water resources.
Calculation: The projected change is the percent change in annual runoff from the
baseline projection (1980-2009) to the future projection (2040-2069) using RCP4.5
emission scenario. Some baselines are close to zero, causing large percent changes
even though the future projection is still low. To offset this effect, ND-GAIN sets all
baseline flows to a set minimum value. The calculation here sets the 10 percentile to be
the minimum value. Baseline and future projections are generated by averaging annual
runoffs from six GCMs.
Data Source: Projected change of water risks by Aqueduct, World Resource Institute
Notes: (1) There are several factors that current hydrology models have not taken into
consideration when projecting the future runoffs. For example, melting from snow will
likely be affected by climate change, but is not included in this indicator; the
topography also plays an important yet unmodeled role in this indicator. (2) Since ND-
GAIN is an annual index, this indicator considers the runoff projection on an annual
basis, which avoids the bigger variations in a shorter time-window (seasonal or
monthly variation).
Rationale: Ground water, together with surface water, is a key source of fresh water to
supply drinking water and other water uses (EPA, n.d.). The projected change of
groundwater recharge due to climate change takes into account the climatic impacts on
the factors of total runoff, precipitation intensity, relief, soil texture, aquifer properties,
and the occurrence of glaciers and permafrost. ND-GAIN uses the projected change of
annual groundwater recharge as a proxy to measure the climate impacts of freshwater
resources, complementing the surface runoff water indicator.
Calculation: The projected change is the percent decrease of the annual groundwater
recharge from the baseline projection (1971-2000) to the future projection (2040-
2069) using RCP4.5 emission scenario. Some baselines are close to zero, causing large
percent changes even though the future projection is still low. To offset this effect, ND-
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GAIN sets all baseline flows to a set minimum value. The calculation here sets the 10
percentile to be the minimum value. Baseline and future projections are generated by
averaging annual GWR from five GCMs.
Notes: It is commonly believed that climate change will have a large impact on
freshwater supply because of the impact on GWR. However, the projection shows that
under RCP4.5 emission path, the absolute change of GWR with respect to the baseline
is relatively small by mid-century (2040-2069). Country values range from about -
60mm/yr to 40 mm/yr, compared with baseline GWR rates ranging up to 955 mm / yr.
This implies that the impacts on freshwater supply via ground water may be small in
many countries.
Rationale: Annual freshwater withdrawal out of the total renewable water resources
is a proxy for countries’ water stress (Oki & Kanae, 2006). Countries that already have
water stress are less resistant to water scarcity exacerbated by climate change.
Data Source: Fresh water withdrawal as % of total actual renewable water resources,
AQUASTAT
Time Series: Countries all update the data periodically but not all countries make
updates at the same time. The frequency of data reporting ranges from only once since
1995 to every 5 years.
Rationale: An indication of how much renewable water resource a country has that is
not exclusively controlled by the country. High dependency on foreign water resources
makes a country potential susceptible to water insecurity(Bates et al., 2008; Tir &
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Stinnett, 2012), because climate change increases the demand for shared, trans-
boundary water sources (Tir & Stinnett, 2012).
Rationale: Adaptations to increase water scarcity and variability in flow could include
both the establishment of an efficient water market and an increase in water storage
capacity through the construction of dams(RCCCA, 2013). The construction of dams
and reservoirs are an example of a country’s capacity to build structural works that
may reduce climate change impacts (De Loek et al., 2001). Although countries with
high rainfall in theory do not need large dams under normal conditions, with climate
change and the possibility of rainfall patterns changes, dams become more important.
Therefore dam capacities are an appropriate measure of the capacity to cope with
changes brought by climate change regarding temporal and geographic distribution of
water resources.
Notes: (1) In some cases, increased dam construction may be maladaptive under
climate change because of other negative environmental and social consequences of
dam construction and maintenance (Fearnside, 2001; Tilt et al., 2009). In these cases, a
country’s ability to create dams could be indicative of the capacity to store water in
other ways as well (e.g., wetland restoration), but does not necessarily suggest an
adaptation solution. (2) The best data ND-GAIN has found so far is FAOSTAT that
provides a single estimate with no variation over time. In future releases, tracking the
capacity of water storage capacities with time-series data is desired.
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Description: Commonly used indicator of the capacity to deliver reliable domestic
water supplies. The drinking water sources are considered reliable if they have a
household connection, public standpipe, borehole, protected well or spring, or
rainwater collection.
HEALTH
Rationale: This is the only comprehensive assessment of the effects of climate change
on overall health impacts.
Calculation: The projected change is the percent increase of DALYs from the historical
baseline (2000) to the 2030 estimation using S550 emission scenario.
Coverage: 186 countries. But DALY is calculated for regions of the world and for sub-
groupings of countries within these regions (14 different region groups). Thus many
countries share the same value of the indicator.
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EXPOSURE INDICATOR 2: Projected change in vector-borne diseases
due to changes in length of transmission season (LTS)
Description: This indicator takes the projection of malaria LTS as an indication of the
climate change impacts on vector-borne diseases. LTS data were taken from
projections (Caminade, et al., 2014) that took the ensemble mean of malaria LTS over
four malaria models and five GCMs. However, the incidence of vector-borne diseases is
also strongly dependent on the quality of public health systems. In this indicator the
WHO estimated number of malarial cases per 1000 population per month of current
LTS is used as a measure of these services.
Calculation: The projected change is the absolute increase in malaria LTS from the
baseline projection (1980-2010) to the future projection in 2050, using RCT4.5
emission scenario.
Data Source:
WHO
Coverage:192 countries
Notes: Literature shows that the transmission of many other vector-borne diseases like
dengue fever yellow fever, Lyme disease, etc. will be highly impacted by climate change
(Hales, et al. 2002; McMichael, et al. 2006; Lindgren, et al. 2012, etc.) but the data from
modeled projections are either lacking or not accessible.
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Data Source: External resources for health (% of total expenditure on health), WDI
Time Series: Most countries have annual update from 1995 to 2012
Coverage: 83 countries in the original set but expanded to116 after assumption that
OECD countries have a default slum population of0.
Time Series: 1995, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2014; best for 2005 and 2014
Data Source:
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Coverage: 190 countries
Notes: Hospital beds are often used as an alternative measure. However, access to the
beds may be difficult following extreme climate events and the hospitals may be
damaged themselves. Also the quality of a “hospital bed” and the services that go with
it often vary greatly, ND-GAIN has favored a people and skills based measure.
Rationale: Sanitation influences the incidence of infectious diseases (Tol et al., 2007).
Thus, access to sanitation is particularly crucial to build up preparedness to various
natural disasters exacerbated by climate change (McMichael & Woodruff, 2005; Keim,
2008).
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Rationale: The indicator captures the threat of changes in biome function. It is based
on the projected impact of climate change on the area occupied by different biomes
within a country.
Calculation: The projected change is the fraction of land area within a country that is
projected to become a different potential biome type under future climate (2070-2100,
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combining three Special Report of Emission Scenarios (SRES) and three GCMs) relative
to baseline years 1990.
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national income and savings in the form of all assets and capital goods that are inputs
to economic well-being (The World Bank, 2011). The natural capital related to
ecosystem services includes: crop, pasture, forest (timber), forest (non-timber) and
protected areas. Sub-surface capital such as oil, gas and mineral reserves are not
included.
Calculation: The indicator is the ratio of natural capital over the total wealth of one
country.
Rationale: A country with a surplus (more supply than demand) has the capacity to
produce more from within its boundaries and thus is likely to have more options to
adapt to a changing climate.
Time Series: Single estimate as only the 2010 database is available to the public
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terrestrial biome… All biome protection percentages were capped at 17% so that
higher protection in one biome cannot be used to offset lower protection in another.”
Rationale: Countries with good protection of their core ecosystem types are likely to
have the capacity to implement a wider range of actions to continue to protect and
manage ecosystem services under a changing climate.
Rationale: Although not a direct measure of capacity, the failure to take part in such
forums is usually associated with either lack of technical capacity to deal with the
issues and/or lack of political ability to reach decisions over appropriate engagement.
Calculation: The indicator is the ratio of a single country’s current status of convention
engagement to the maximum engagement among all countries. The current status is a
comprehensive measure considering dates of signing in conventions, ratification of
convention participation and denunciation of treaty agreement.
Time Series: Annual since 1995 based on the continually increasing number of
conventions etc. and the time lags in countries signing and ratifying the agreements.
Notes: The outcome for this indicator is strongly dependent on the process of selecting
the agreements to be included. ND-GAIN includes "environmental treaties" in their
broadest sense while avoiding any to do with military/warfare, gross marine pollution,
safety at sea, and other shipping controls. ND-GAIN also excludes treaties directly
setting up International organizations such as the World Bank etc. ND-GAIN also
excludes agreements with less than 20 signatories.
Some agreements have a limited regional scope (e.g. dealing with Atlantic tuna). ND-
GAIN could have excluded them, but this would have limited the list (16 out of 54 have
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clear regional scope of application), and many were signed by countries beyond the
region (e.g those with fishing fleets in the Atlantic). Many (17 out of 54) also deal with
the agreements on oceans and this may disadvantage land-locked countries. However,
land-locked countries are sometimes signatories to such conventions (e.g. those
relating to whaling). It could similarly be argued that some agreements are not
relevant to many countries on other grounds (e.g. those to do with desertification).
Thus ND-GAIN retains a wide set of agreements rather than culling, thereby reducing
the list to only 10 to 20.
HUMAN HABITAT
Rationale: Human living conditions are threatened by the increased intensity and/or
frequency of extreme weather, including storms, flooding, landslides and heat waves,
that climate change is bringing or will bring (Satterthwaite, 2008).
Calculation: The projected change is the absolute change of WSDI from the baseline
year (1960-1990) to the future projection (2040-2070), using RCP4.5 emission
scenario.
Data Source:
Notes: Another relevant index to measure the duration of warm spell is the Heat Wave
Duration Index (HWDI), which counts the number of days when the daily maximum of
near surface temperature exceeds more than 5 degree C above the mean daily
maximum temperature in a calendar 5-day window in the base period 1961-1990.
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(Frich, et al., 2002; Sillmann, et al., 2013b). However, the 5 degree C threshold that
HWDI uses is too high to detect the low variation of daily temperature, for example, in
tropical areas. Therefore, an index calculated using a percentile-based threshold is
more appropriate to capture various degrees of temperature variation.
The monthly rx5day data are extracted from ensemble mean of extreme indices
generated by 19 GCMs (Sillmann et al., 2013a; Sillmann et al., 2013b).
Rationale: An indicator that complements the warm period projection, to capture one
of the important disastrous threats to human living conditions.
Calculation: The projected change is the percent change in the flood hazard from the
baseline projection (1960-1990) to the future projection (2040-2070), using RCP 4.5
emission scenario. The annual figure is derived from averaging the monthly data.
Data Source:
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population that is urbanized. The Herfindahl measure takes the sum of the squared
percent of the population residing in each large city over the total population in these
large cities. The total urbanized population is the proportion of urban population to the
total country population.
Countries that do not have cities with more than 750,000 inhabitants are considered to
have zero vulnerability due to high of urban concentration.
Data Source:
Data Source:
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on a rating ranging from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). Scores are averaged across all
respondents.
Rationale: This is a measure of the sturdiness of the road system and all of the social
and economic activity dependent upon it. This is also a measure to complement the
first capacity indicator (which is mainly as a proxy to measure transport infrastructure
between major cities). Paved roads capture a country’s capacity to deploy
transportation improvements, especially in rural areas.
Time Series: 1995 to 2011 but not annually for most of the countries. The frequency of
data report ranges from only once since 1995 to annual.
INFRASTRUCTURE
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Description: An indication of the potential risk of hydropower generation capacity
weighted by the importance of hydropower to one country, i.e. the proportion of the
electricity production from hydroelectric sources. The data of the projected change are
available at the sub-continental level, drawn from (Hamududu & Killingtveit, 2012).
Rationale: Due to the hydrological impact of climate change in the mid- to long- term
(see the two exposure indicators in the water sector), climate change also is projected
to directly impact hydropower generation capacity (Schaeffer et al., 2012).
Calculation: The projected change is the percent change in the hydropower generation
capacity from the historical baseline (2005) to the future projection (2050), using the
A1B emission scenario.
Data Source:
Hamududu&Killingtveit (2012)
Dependency on hydropower
Rationale: Sea level rise due to climate change is a threat to coastal infrastructure,
requiring resilient infrastructure that protects coastal areas (Lemmen& Warren, 2004;
Tol, et al., 2008; Hallegatte, 2009). ND-GAIN assumes that the potential risk or damage
to coastal infrastructure from sea level rise depends on the extent of coastal areas
exposed to both sea level rise and potential storm surge.
Calculation: The global average of sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP45
scenario is projected to be 0.32-0.63 m (IPCC, 2013). There is no consistent average
height of storm surge because the factors vary tremendously. 1.5m or 2-3 m is
considered to be the moderate zone (Smith et al., 2010). Taking 0.63 m of the projected
change of sea level rise and 3 m of moderate height of storm surge, ND-GAIN estimates
the impact to be the proportion of ocean-adjacent land areas lower than 4 m above sea
level. The equal-area map projection is used to calculate land area. ND-GAIN assumes
that land-locked countries do not have coastal risks.
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Data Source: 1 arc-minute global relief model of Earth’s surface, integrating land
topography and ocean bathymetry
Coverage:192 countries
Rationale: The imported energy could increase in price or be cut off in crises. A higher
proportion of imported energy implies higher sensitivity to price volatility and supply
crises. Countries heavily dependent on imported energy are considered energy
vulnerable (Gnansounou, 2008).
Rationale: An estimate of the population sensitive to the risks arising from seal-level
rise, storm surge and similar effects, which are exacerbated by climate change.
Data Source: Population living in areas where elevation is below 5 meters (% of total
population), WDI
Notes: (1) Generally, this indicator should be continuously changing considering that
many countries are experiencing population migration to coastal cities (e.g. Adebusoye,
2006; Chan, 2013). (2) A more consistent measure should be the coastal population
living in areas where elevation is 4m or less, to line up with the exposure indicator
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(The second exposure indicator above). The population data available from the World
Development Indicators database, however, are for 5 m.
Rationale: Access to electricity enables the poor to get the most basic services and
economic opportunities to improve their standard of living. Considering the potential
climate risks, access to electricity provides the basics that facilitate health care, disaster
relief, food storage, and social services like education and ICT infrastructures.
Therefore, electricity access is indicative of the capacity to delivery energy to a
country’s citizen and businesses, including technology and infrastructure, personnel,
and the ability to respond disruptions in supply.
Coverage: 87 countries in the original set but expanded to117 after assumption that
OECD and high-income countries have a default rate of electricity access as 100%.
Notes: (1) HFA action plan was outlined in 2005 and the reports were not made until
2007, therefore, disaster preparedness was not tractable before that for all countries.
(2) The self-reported data are not always comparable among countries. However, the
HFA report still provides so far the most comprehensive data set that monitors the
progress of capacity building in terms of preparing for natural disasters.
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READINESS INDICATORS
ECONOMIC READINESS
Rationale: The World Bank Doing Business (DB) indicators, which have been used by
many studies to evaluate countries’ investment climate by measuring procedures, time
and cost of performing business activities through business life cycles (e.g. Commander
& Svejnar, 2011; Hallward-Driemeier & Pritchett, 2011; Morris & Aziz, 2011; Collier &
Duponchel, 2013). As the economic readiness in ND-GAIN seeks to capture the business
condition that attract adaptation investment, a description of the general investment
climate is a good proxy for the economic component of readiness.
Notes:(1) Some of the DB sub-indices have incurred criticism, e.g., labor regulations;
however, the overall DB is a widely accepted and applied indicator of countries’
investment climate.(2)Some of the DB indicators are highly correlated with other
readiness indicators, for instance, the rule of law indicator. The relevance of the index
has also been challenged by some countries.
GOVERNANCE READINESS
33
GOVERNANCE INDICATOR 1: Political stability and non-violence
Description: An indicator directly from the World Governance Indicators (WGI),
“capturing perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically-
motivated violence, including terrorism.”
Time Series: 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002-2014 for most of the countries
Time Series: 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002-2014 for most of the countries
34
Rationale: The quality of regulation measures the performance of country institutions,
an important factor in deploying adaptation actions and adaptation-related policies
(e.g. Globerman& Shapiro, 2003; Daude& Stein, 2007; Gani, 2007).
Time Series: 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002-2014 for most of the countries
Rationale: Like political stability and control of corruption, rule of law is a quality of
society that encourages foreign investment in general (e.g. Alesina& Dollar, 2000;
Burnside & Dollar, 2004), hence the adaptation investments.
Time Series: 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002-2014 for most of the countries
SOCIAL READINESS
Rationale: The poorest populations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate
impacts (Tol, et al., 2004). Social inequality causes skewed distribution incomes and of
vulnerability, and the exaggerated impacts on the poorest may further skew income
distribution. Thus, social inequality exacerbates a country’s capacity to adapt to climate
change.
35
Time Series: from 1995 to 2012. Most of the countries do not have annual updates.
Rationale: ICT infrastructure can facilitate many features of adaptation. For example, it
enables knowledge integration and learning and key ingredients of adaptive capacity
(Pant and Heeks 2011); it provides technical support for early warning systems; and it
can strengthen local organizations that implement adaptation(Singh and Singh 2012).
Calculation: The overall ICT infrastructure indicator takes the average over the scores
of the four sub-indicators.
Data Source:
Time Series: Not all sub-indicators have coverage from 1995 to 2013. The range of
data availability is from 4-5 updates since 1995 to annual report. But the overall score
is the average of the available sub-indicators. Therefore, the scores in the end are on
the annual basis.
36
SOCIAL INDICATOR 3: Education
Description: A measure of enrolment in tertiary education to represent the education
level of a country. It is approximated by the ratio of the enrollment in tertiary
education (regardless of age) to the population of the age group that officially
corresponds to tertiary education attendance.
Time Series: 1995-2013. Limited data for 2014. The frequency of data reporting
ranges from no report to annual update.
Calculation: A simple calculation of the per capita measure of the residents’ patent
applications.
Data Source:
Population, WDI
Time Series: 1995-2014. The frequency of data reporting ranges from no report to
annual update.
Notes: The numbers of national patent registrations are not necessarily comparable
across countries as the costs and incentives to register patents vary. There are
37
alternative indicators of innovation, e.g. number of scientists, R&D expenditures,
number of literature citation, etc. There is no comprehensive measure of innovation.
Rule 1: The baseline maximum or minimum of the observed raw data, rounded to
integer numbers when applicable.
Rule2: The logical reference points derived from the common adaptation or
development practices.
The reference points for individual measures are provided in Table 3 below. The tag 1-
3 stands for the rule above that applies to each reference point.
38
Access to reliable drinking
100%2 54.99 100
water
Projected change of deaths
from climate change induced 1.032 1.025 1.19
diseases
Projected change in vector-
-8.1 months1 -8.16 64.86
Health borne diseases
Dependency on external
0%2 0 29.42
resource for health services
Slum population 0%2 0 97
Medical staff 12.3‰1 0 12.32
Access to improved
100%2 19 99.5
sanitation facilities
Projected change of biome
11%1 0.11 0.96
distribution
Projected change of marine
01 0 0.88
biodiversity
Natural capital dependency 02 0 0.46
Ecosystems
Ecological footprint 0.35 Ha per capita1 0.35 4.84
Protected biome 1003 0 100
Engagement in international
12 0 1
environmental conventions
Projected change of warm
30%1 29.99 113.31
periods
Projected change of flood 0.16139
-4%1 -0.0395
hazard 5
Urban concentration 0.00531 0.00534 1
Human Habitat
Age dependency ratio 28%1 0.28 0.5334
Quality of trade and
53 1 5
transport infrastructure
Paved roads 100%2 0.8 100
Projected change of
hydropower generation 141%1 -1.82 1.411
capacity
Projected change of sea level
0%1 0 0.113
rise impacts
Infrastructure Dependency on imported
0%2 0 99.93
energy
Population living under 5m
0%1 0 24.11
above sea level
Electricity access 100%2 18.62 100
Disaster preparedness 4.71 1.0455 4.684
Economic Readiness Doing business 0.993 0.01 0.99
Governance Readiness Political stability and non-
2.53 -2.5 2.5
violence
Control of corruption 2.53 -2.5 2.5
Regulatory quality 2.53 -2.5 2.5
Rule of law 2.53 -2.5 2.5
Social Readiness Social inequality 13.4%1 0 13.4
Ict infrastructure Fixed phone
subscription: 60%3
Mobile cellular 0 0.893
subscription: 190%3
Internet user: 100%3
39
Fixed broadband
internet subscription:
60%3
Education 70%1 0.2094 70.17
Innovation 0.023 patent application
0 0.00023
per 100 population1
Note: The reference points set by the data sources are:
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