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Earnings Presentation q2
Earnings Presentation q2
RESULTS
7.30.21
DARREN WOODS
CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
STEPHEN LITTLETON
VICE PRESIDENT, INVESTOR RELATIONS AND SECRETARY
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
Statements of future events or conditions in this presentation or the subsequent discussion period are forward-looking statements. Actual future
results, including financial and operating performance; earnings, cash flow, and rates of return; project plans, timing, costs, and capacities; realization
and maintenance of cost reductions, opex savings and structural efficiencies; integration benefits; emissions intensity and absolute emissions
reductions; operating performance improvements; maintenance and turnaround activity; implementation and outcomes of carbon capture and storage
projects, renewable fuel projects, and other technology efforts; price and margin recovery; dividends, cash and debt balances, capital expenditures;
resource recoveries and production rates; and product sales levels and mix could differ materially due to a number of factors including global or
regional changes in oil, gas, petrochemicals, or feedstock prices, differentials, or other market or economic conditions affecting the oil, gas, and
petrochemical industries and the demand for our products; changes in local, national, or international laws, regulations, and policies affecting our
business including with respect to the environment, the development and transportation of our products, taxes, trade sanctions, and actions taken in
response to the COVID-19 pandemic; the pace of regional and global economic recovery from the pandemic and the occurrence and severity of future
outbreaks; the ability to realize efficiencies within and across our business lines and to maintain cost reductions without impairing our competitive
positioning; the outcome and timing of exploration and development projects; reservoir performance; timely completion of construction projects; war
and other security disturbances; the outcome of commercial negotiations and impact of commercial terms; actions of competitors and commercial
counterparties; actions of consumers and changes in consumer preferences; opportunities for and regulatory approval of investments or divestments
that may arise, including satisfaction of conditions precedent under applicable agreements; the outcome of research efforts and the ability to bring new
technology to commercial scale on a cost-competitive basis; the development and competitiveness of alternative energy and emission reduction
technologies; unforeseen technical or operating difficulties including the need for unplanned maintenance; and other factors discussed here and in Item
1A. Risk Factors of our Annual Report on Form 10-K and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” available through the Investors page of
our website at exxonmobil.com. All forward-looking statements are based on management’s knowledge and reasonable expectations at the time of
this presentation and we assume no duty to update these statements as of any future date.
Reconciliations and definitions of non-GAAP measures and other terms are provided in the text or in the supplemental information accompanying these
slides.
2
GROWING LONG-TERM SHAREHOLDER VALUE
Progressing plans to improve earnings and cash flow in a lower-carbon future
• Good progress integrating new directors; focus on addressing challenges and growing long-term shareholder value
3
DEVELOPMENTS SINCE FIRST QUARTER 2021
Higher liquids realizations in-line with market; lower volumes due to seasonal demand and maintenance
UPSTREAM New discoveries in Guyana
Completed FID for Bacalhau development in Brazil
Global demand improving with vaccine roll-out, partially offset by regional outbreaks and lockdowns
DOWNSTREAM
Margins remain below 10-year lows driven by product oversupply and international jet demand
U/S D/S CHEM C&F TOTAL • Price / margin improvements across all
businesses with continued demand recovery
1Q21 GAAP Earnings / (Loss) 2.6 (0.4) 1.4 (0.8) 2.7
Planned maintenance (0.4) (0.2) (0.2) - (0.8) • Lower corporate and financing expenses and
favorable tax items
Other base business 0.4 0.1 (0.0) 0.3 0.7
2Q21 Earnings / (Loss) ex. identified items 3.2 (0.2) 2.3 (0.6) 4.7
6
UPSTREAM VOLUMES 2Q21 VS. 1Q21
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO CHANGE IN VOLUMES
Koebd
• Government-mandated curtailments unchanged
3,787 at ~125 Koebd
(75)
(60)
• Lower seasonal gas demand in Europe
(110) 3,582
40
7
DOWNSTREAM 2Q21 VS. 1Q21
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO CHANGE IN EARNINGS
Million USD
• Stronger margins of ~$600 million partially offset
by unsettled derivatives mark-to-market impacts
8
CHEMICAL 2Q21 VS. 1Q21
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO CHANGE IN EARNINGS
Million USD
• Best-ever quarterly earnings
(180) 2,320
9
EARNINGS 2Q21 VS. 2Q20
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO CHANGE IN EARNINGS
Million USD
4,702 • Total price / margin improvement of ~$6.7 billion
810 (850) 1,060
430
• Demand recovery including absence of economic
1,680
curtailments and lower refinery sparing
(3,002)
2Q20 ex. U/S Chem D/S Demand Planned Expense / 2Q21 ex.
ident. price margin margin / volume mainte- other ident.
items nance items
10
DISCIPLINED INVESTING AND COST MANAGEMENT
CASH OPEX EXCLUDING ENERGY AND PRODUCTION TAXES
Billion USD
19.1
• >$1 billion in structural efficiencies in 1H21 partially
18.7 offset by increased activity
(1.2)
0.8
CAPEX
Billion USD
12.5 • 2Q Capex of $3.8 billion with continued spend in
(3.5)
Guyana, Brazil, Permian, and Chemical
(2.0) 6.9
Due to rounding, numbers presented above may not add up precisely to the totals indicated.
See Supplemental Information for definitions. 11
SECOND QUARTER 2021 CASH PROFILE
2Q21 1Q21
Beginning cash 3.5 4.4 • Increased cash flow due to stronger market
Earnings / (Loss) 4.7 2.7
fundamentals, supported by improved reliability
Billions of USD. Due to rounding, numbers presented above may not add up precisely to the totals indicated.
See Supplemental Information for footnotes. 12
THIRD QUARTER 2021 OUTLOOK
13
MANAGEMENT
PERSPECTIVES
DARREN WOODS
CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
JACK WILLIAMS
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT
MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Prices and margins continue to improve
PRICES / MARGINS
2010—2021
2Q21 • Crude and natural gas markets improved with
demand recovery
4Q20
• Strong chemical margins driven by continued tight
industry supply in North America and Europe
200
100
− Shipping constraints amplify supply / demand
imbalances
Asia Pacific
2
• Advantaged feed and integration delivered ~$1.4
billion in earnings in 1H21
0
2010 - 2020 1Q21 2Q21
average
Guyana
• New discoveries at Uaru-2, Longtail-3, and Whiptail
• Low-cost developments remain on schedule:
− Liza Phase 2 FPSO in Guyana during 4Q21
− Payara on schedule for 2024 start-up
− Progressing Yellowtail towards FID; 2025 start-up
• Six active rigs; exploration, appraisal, development
Kaieteur
SURINAME
• Progressing Gulf Coast initiatives including • Global Clean Energy partnership for supply • Founding member of Projects Astra and
Houston hub concept of >10 Kbd of advantaged renewable diesel Falcon, U.S. industry initiatives to identify
in California continuous methane monitoring solutions
• Imperial Oil founding member of Oil Sands
Pathways to Net Zero initiative in Canada • Completed bio feed co-processing trials; • Utilizing flyover technology to detect leaks
potential for >20 Kbd across refining circuit across Permian Basin
• Signed MoU to study feasibility of CCS hub
in Normandy, France • Multiple opportunities to repurpose • Evaluating satellite technologies
existing units in U.S. Gulf Coast
• Joined Acorn CCS project in Scotland
• Maintain discipline
− Deliver 2023 expense reduction commitments
− Manage Capex within committed range
− Rebuild balance sheet capacity
• Aggressively grow strategically and financially accretive Low Carbon Solutions Business
23
Q&A
THIRD QUARTER 2021 OUTLOOK
DOWNSTREAM SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE QUARTERLY EARNINGS IMPACT1
Million USD
600 1,2 See
• • Lower Supplemental
scheduled Information
maintenance positions
Downstream for continued market recovery
300
• Lower planned maintenance activity in Chemical
0
2020 quarterly 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 est.
average
CHEMICAL SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE QUARTERLY EARNINGS IMPACT²
Million USD
200
100
0
2020 quarterly 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 est.
average
Forward-looking statements contained in this presentation regarding the potential for future earnings, cash flow, and returns, including statements regarding future earnings
potential and returns in the Chemical and Downstream segments, are not forecasts of actual future results. These figures are provided to help quantify for illustrative purposes
management’s view of the potential future results and goals of currently-contemplated management plans and objectives over the time periods shown, calculated on a basis
consistent with our internal modeling assumptions. Management plans discussed in this presentation include objectives to grow sales of Chemical performance products and to
invest in new projects. For this purpose, we assume operations at full capacity and average annual Downstream and Chemical margins as seen over the 2010—2019 time period
(see slide 15). These assumptions are not forecasts of actual future market conditions. For this purpose we have assumed future demand growth in line with our internal
planning basis, and that other factors including factors management does not control such as applicable laws and regulations (including tax and environmental laws), interest
rates, and exchange rates remain consistent with current conditions for the relevant periods. This presentation does not attempt to model potential future COVID-19 outbreaks
or recoveries.
Non-GAAP and other measures. With respect to historical periods, reconciliation and other information is provided on page 26 of this presentation and in the Frequently Used
Terms available on the Investor page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com under the heading News & Resources for certain terms used in this presentation including
operating costs and cash operating expenses (cash opex). For future periods, we are unable to provide a reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP or other measures to the
most comparable GAAP financial measures because the information needed to reconcile these measures is dependent on future events, many of which are outside
management’s control as described above. Additionally, estimating such GAAP measures and providing a meaningful reconciliation consistent with our accounting policies for
future periods is extremely difficult and requires a level of precision that is unavailable for these future periods and cannot be accomplished without unreasonable effort.
Forward-looking non-GAAP measures are estimated in a manner consistent with the relevant definitions and assumptions noted above. No reconciliation of earnings excluding
identified items is necessary for the second quarter as rounded results are the same as GAAP earnings.
27
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Definitions
Cash operating expenses (cash Opex, structural efficiencies, or structural reductions). Cash operating expenses are a subset of total operating costs that are stewarded
internally to support management’s oversight of spending over time. This measure is useful for investors to understand the Corporation’s efforts to optimize cash through
disciplined expense management. For information concerning the calculation and reconciliation of cash operating expenses see the table on slide 26.
Free cash. Free cash is operating cash flow less capital investment. This measure is useful when approximating contributions to cash available for financing activities, applied to
the Upstream business.
Operating costs (Opex). Operating costs are the costs during the period to produce, manufacture, and otherwise prepare the company’s products for sale – including energy,
staffing, and maintenance costs. They exclude the cost of raw materials, taxes, and interest expense and are on a before-tax basis. While ExxonMobil’s management is
responsible for all revenue and expense elements of net income, operating costs, as defined above, represent the expenses most directly under management’s control, and
therefore are useful for investors and ExxonMobil management in evaluating management’s performance. For information concerning the calculation and reconciliation of
operating costs see the table on slide 26.
Performance product. Refers to Chemical products that provide differentiated performance for multiple applications through enhanced properties versus commodity
alternatives and bring significant additional value to customers and end-users.
Project. The term “project” as used in this presentation can refer to a variety of different activities and does not necessarily have the same meaning as in any government
payment transparency reports.
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SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Definitions
Resources, resource base, and recoverable resources. Along with similar terms, these refer to the total remaining estimated quantities of oil and natural gas that are expected
to be ultimately recoverable. ExxonMobil refers to new discoveries and acquisitions of discovered resources as resource additions. The resource base includes quantities of oil
and natural gas classified as proved reserves, as well as, quantities that are not yet classified as proved reserves, but that are expected to be ultimately recoverable. The term
“resource base” or similar terms is not intended to correspond to SEC definitions such as “probable” or “possible” reserves. The term “in-place” refers to those quantities of oil
and natural gas estimated to be contained in known accumulations and includes recoverable and unrecoverable amounts.
Returns, rate of return, IRR. Unless referring specifically to external data, references to returns, rate of return, IRR, and similar terms mean future discounted cash flow returns
on future capital investments based on current company estimates. Investment returns exclude prior exploration and acquisition costs.
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SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Slide 4 Slide 17
1) Subject to regulatory and third-party approvals. 1) Leading Chemical business - chemicals industry benchmark group comprised of 11
of the top 20 global ethylene producers where public information for segment
Slide 5 earnings estimate is disclosed. Group includes ExxonMobil Chemical Company, Dow
1) Period-to-period change in earnings as a result of fair value accounting for Inc., Sinopec Chemicals Segment, LyondellBasell Industries N.V., Royal Dutch Shell
unsettled derivatives. Chemicals Segment, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company, INEOS Group Ltd,
Braskem, SABIC, BASF Chemicals Segment, and Reliance Petrochemicals Segment.
Industry bar in chart excludes ExxonMobil Chemical Company.
Slide 12 2) Versus 2019 levels.
1) Includes PP&E Adds of ($2.7) billion and net investments / advances of ($0.2) billion 3) Earnings delivered from North America Growth projects – Baytown, Mont Belvieu,
in 2Q21. and Beaumont.
2) Ending debt is the sum of (1) Notes and loans payable and (2) Long-term debt as
reported in Form 10-Q, at the end of the second quarter. Slide 18
1) Includes performance polyethylene, performance polypropylene, linear alpha olefins
Slide 15 and Vistamaxx™ sales. ExxonMobil estimate post-2020.
1) Source: S&P Global Platts. 2) Potential Chemical earnings assuming 10-year average Chemical margins (2010—
2) Source: ICE. Equal weighting of Henry Hub and NBP. 2019).
3) Source: S&P Global Platts and ExxonMobil analysis. Weighting of U.S. Gulf Coast
(Maya – Coking), Northwest Europe (Brent – Catalytic Cracking), and Singapore Slide 19
(Dubai – Catalytic Cracking) based on ExxonMobil capacity and netted for industry 1) Return based on 2021 money-forward, remaining Capex-weighted basis, for listed
growth projects in 2027 at full capacity across Downstream and Chemical using
average Opex and renewable identification numbers (RINS).
2010—2019 annual average margins.
4) Source: IHS Markit, Platts, and company estimates. Weighting of polyethylene, 2) Collective annual earnings generated by listed Downstream and Chemical projects
polypropylene, and paraxylene based on ExxonMobil capacity. in 2027 at full capacity based on 2010—2019 average annual margins.
Slide 20
Slide 16 1) Spud to rig-release days.
1) Source: IHS Markit, Platts, and company estimates. 2) Drilling and completion costs per lateral foot.
3) Field operations, well work, and energy expense per oil-equivalent barrel; operated
business only.
4) Based on ExxonMobil analysis of available drilling company data.
5) Based on ExxonMobil analysis of Rystad 1Q21 Shale Emissions Cube data.
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SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Slide 21
1) Money-forward basis; excluding acquisition cost.
Slide 22
1) Final Investment Decision (FID) is targeted to occur in 2022 for the LaBarge Helium
Plant CCS Expansion and the Rotterdam Porthos CCS project.
2) ExxonMobil analysis of potential biofuels production based on plant trials and
market research.
Slide 25
1) Estimates based on June margins and operating expenses related to turnaround
activities.
2) Based on operating expenses related to turnaround activities.
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