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Bautista, Rnie Riena S - Forecasting Assignment
Bautista, Rnie Riena S - Forecasting Assignment
A-335
ASSIGNMENT ON FORECASTING
The data on the tables below are the demand in dozens of doughnuts of Krispy Doughnuts
for the past six weeks, make a forecast for week 7 using 3 month moving average,
exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.10, and linear trend. Exponential Smoothing
here, alpha = 0.10; 3-week moving average
MOVING AVERAGE:
PERIOD ACT. DEMAND FORECAST ABS. ERROR ERROR^2 %ERROR
JAN. 200
FEB 256
MARCH 287
APRIL 282 247.67 34.33 1156 12.17%
MAY 247 275 28 784 11.34%
JUNE 252 272 20 400 7.94%
JULY 260.33
TOTAL 82 2340 31.45%
Mean Absolute Error (MAD) 27.33
Mean Standard Error (MSE) 780
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 10.48%
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING:
PERIOD ACT. DEMAND FORECAST ABS. ERROR ERROR^2 %ERROR
JAN. 200
FEB 256 200 56 3136 21.88%
MARCH 287 205.60 81.40 6625.96 28.36%
APRIL 282 213.74 68.26 4659.43 24.21%
MAY 247 220.57 26.47 700.66 10.72%
JUNE 252 223.21 28.79 828.86 11.42%
JULY 226.09
TOTAL 260.92 15950.21 96.59%
Mean Absolute Error (MAD) 52.18
Mean Standard Error (MSE) 3190.18
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 19.32%
QUESTIONS ANSWER
1. What is your forecast for week 7 using 3 month
260.33
moving average?
2. What is your forecast for week 7 using exponential
226.09
smoothing?
3. Which is the better forecasting technique for the
MOVING AVERAGE
data, moving average or exponential smoothing?
4. Using the 3month moving average, what period did
APRIL
your forecast start?
5. If 4 month moving average is used, what period must
MAY
you start your forecast?
MULTIPLYING THE
6. In exponential smoothing, to what did you multiply
ALPHA IN THE ACTUAL
the alpha of 0.10, actual demand or forecast?
DEMAND
7. Given weights of 0.40 (most recent), 0.20,0.20 and (252*0.4) + (247*0.20)+
0.20 for the preceding periods respectively, what is the (282*0.20) + (287*0.20)
forecast for week 7 using weighted moving average? = 264
8. What is the linear trend equation? Y=231.22+6.51x
9. What does your slope (b) indicate, increasing or
INCREASING DEMAND
decreasing demand?
10. Using linear trend, what is the forecast for week 7? 231.22+651(6) = 276.79