Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • Bautista, Rnie Riena S - Forecasting Assignment

    Uploaded by

    Rnie Riena Serafica Bautista
    45 views3 pages
    The document summarizes forecasts for weekly doughnut demand over a 6 week period using 3 methods: 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing, and linear trend regression. For the 3 month moving average, the forecast for week 7 is 260.33 dozens. For exponential smoothing with alpha=0.1, the forecast is 226.09 dozens. Linear trend regression produces an equation of Y=231.22+6.51x and forecasts 276.79 dozens for week 7.

    Original Description:

    Original Title

    Bautista, Rnie Riena S_forecasting Assignment (1)

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    The document summarizes forecasts for weekly doughnut demand over a 6 week period using 3 methods: 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing, and linear trend regression. For the 3 month moving average, the forecast for week 7 is 260.33 dozens. For exponential smoothing with alpha=0.1, the forecast is 226.09 dozens. Linear trend regression produces an equation of Y=231.22+6.51x and forecasts 276.79 dozens for week 7.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as doc, pdf, or txt
    45 views3 pages

    Bautista, Rnie Riena S - Forecasting Assignment

    Uploaded by

    Rnie Riena Serafica Bautista
    The document summarizes forecasts for weekly doughnut demand over a 6 week period using 3 methods: 3 month moving average, exponential smoothing, and linear trend regression. For the 3 month moving average, the forecast for week 7 is 260.33 dozens. For exponential smoothing with alpha=0.1, the forecast is 226.09 dozens. Linear trend regression produces an equation of Y=231.22+6.51x and forecasts 276.79 dozens for week 7.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as doc, pdf, or txt
    of 3

    BAUTISTA, RNIE RIENA SERAFICA

    A-335
    ASSIGNMENT ON FORECASTING
    The data on the tables below are the demand in dozens of doughnuts of Krispy Doughnuts
    for the past six weeks, make a forecast for week 7 using 3 month moving average,
    exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.10, and linear trend. Exponential Smoothing
    here, alpha = 0.10; 3-week moving average
    MOVING AVERAGE:
    PERIOD ACT. DEMAND FORECAST ABS. ERROR ERROR^2 %ERROR
    JAN. 200
    FEB 256
    MARCH 287
    APRIL 282 247.67 34.33 1156 12.17%
    MAY 247 275 28 784 11.34%
    JUNE 252 272 20 400 7.94%
    JULY 260.33
    TOTAL 82 2340 31.45%
    Mean Absolute Error (MAD) 27.33
    Mean Standard Error (MSE) 780
    Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 10.48%

    EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING:
    PERIOD ACT. DEMAND FORECAST ABS. ERROR ERROR^2 %ERROR
    JAN. 200
    FEB 256 200 56 3136 21.88%
    MARCH 287 205.60 81.40 6625.96 28.36%
    APRIL 282 213.74 68.26 4659.43 24.21%
    MAY 247 220.57 26.47 700.66 10.72%
    JUNE 252 223.21 28.79 828.86 11.42%
    JULY 226.09
    TOTAL 260.92 15950.21 96.59%
    Mean Absolute Error (MAD) 52.18
    Mean Standard Error (MSE) 3190.18
    Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 19.32%

    MARCH = (256 x .10) + (200 x .90) = 205.60


    APRIL = (287 x .10) + (205.60 x .90) = 213.74
    MAY = (282 x .10) + (213.74 x .90) = 220.57
    JUNE = (247 x .10) + (220.57 x .90) = 223.21
    JULY = (252 x .10) + (223.21 x .90) = 226.09
    TIME SERIES REGRESSION:

    PERIOD (X) DEMAND (Y) XY X^2


    JAN. 1 200 200 1
    FEB 2 256 512 4
    MARCH 3 287 861 9
    APRIL 4 282 1128 16
    MAY 5 247 1235 25
    JUNE 6 252 1512 36
    TOTAL 21 1524 5448 91
    What is the intercept (a-intercept)? 231.22
    What is the slope (b)? 6.51
    What is the forecasting equation? Y=231.22+651x
    What is the forecast for July? 276.79

    QUESTIONS ANSWER
    1. What is your forecast for week 7 using 3 month
    260.33
    moving average?
    2. What is your forecast for week 7 using exponential
    226.09
    smoothing?
    3. Which is the better forecasting technique for the
    MOVING AVERAGE
    data, moving average or exponential smoothing?
    4. Using the 3month moving average, what period did
    APRIL
    your forecast start?
    5. If 4 month moving average is used, what period must
    MAY
    you start your forecast?
    MULTIPLYING THE
    6. In exponential smoothing, to what did you multiply
    ALPHA IN THE ACTUAL
    the alpha of 0.10, actual demand or forecast?
    DEMAND
    7. Given weights of 0.40 (most recent), 0.20,0.20 and (252*0.4) + (247*0.20)+
    0.20 for the preceding periods respectively, what is the (282*0.20) + (287*0.20)
    forecast for week 7 using weighted moving average? = 264
    8. What is the linear trend equation? Y=231.22+6.51x
    9. What does your slope (b) indicate, increasing or
    INCREASING DEMAND
    decreasing demand?
    10. Using linear trend, what is the forecast for week 7? 231.22+651(6) = 276.79

    You might also like