Stat Prob Q4 Module 4
Stat Prob Q4 Module 4
STATISTICS
AND PROBABILITY
Quarter 4 – Module 4
Null and Alternative Hypotheses,
Test Statistic and Rejection Region
Statistics and Probability – Grade 11
Alternative Delivery Mode
Quarter 4 – Module 4: Null and Alternative Hypotheses, Test Statistic and Rejection
Region
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Statistics and
Probability
Quarter 4 – Module 4
Null and Alternative
Hypotheses, Test Statistic and
Rejection Region
Formulating the Appropriate Null and
Lesson 1 Alternative Hypotheses on a Population
Proportion
LEARNING COMPETENCIES:
OBJECTIVES:
K: Recalls procedures in hypothesis testing;
S: Identifies the test statistic to use and the appropriate rejection
region; and
A: Accurately formulates appropriate null and alternative
hypotheses on the population proportion.
2
I
Pre-Assessment
Determine whether the statement is True or False by checking the appropriate box. If false,
modify the statement to make it true.
3
’s In
3. Using a simple random sample of observation, compute for the value of the test statistic.
• A test statistic is a value, determined from sample information, used to determine
whether to reject the null hypothesis. Considering the tossing of a coin problem, in
testing for the “fairness” of the coin, the appropriate test statistic is the number of heads
occurred in n tosses, say n = 100. We can also use the ratio between the number of
heads occurred and the total number of tosses.
4. Make a decision whether to reject or fail to reject (accept) Ho.
A decision rule is a statement of the specific conditions under which the null hypothesis
is rejected and the conditions under which it is not rejected. The region or area of
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rejection defined the location of all those values that are so large or so small that the
probability of their occurrence under true null hypothesis is rather remote.
5. State the conclusion.
The fifth and final step is computing the value of the test statistic, check whether its
value is inside the rejection region, and making a decision to reject or not reject the null
hypothesis.
Note: The focus of this topic is to discuss steps 1&2 of the hypothesis testing procedure.
’s New
Activity 1
The principal of an elementary school believes that this year, there would
be more students from the school who would pass the National Achievement Test
(NAT), so that the proportion of students who passed the NAT is greater than the
proportion obtained in previous year, which is 0.75. What will be the appropriate
null and alternative hypotheses to test this belief?
Note: Second to Fifth steps of hypothesis testing procedure will be discussed in
the next lesson.
is it
Ho: The proportion of students of the school who passed the NAT this year is
equal to 0.75. In symbols, Ho: P = 0.75.
Ha: The proportion of students at the school who passed the NAT this year is
greater than 0.75. In symbols, Ho: P > 0.75.
5
Note:
• A statistical hypothesis is a statement about a parameter and deals with
evaluating the value of the parameter.
• The null and alternative hypotheses should be complementary and non-
overlapping.
• Generally, the null hypothesis is a statement of equality or includes the equality
condition as in the case of ‘at least’ (greater than or equal) or ‘at most’ (less than
or equal).
In general,
• For a one-tailed test:
H 0 : p = po
H 0: p = p 0
Ha: p ≠ p0
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The rejection region is z < -zα/2 or z > zα/2
’s More
Independent Activity 1
Previous evidence show that majority of the students are happy and contented
with the university’s policies. This year, a random sample of 100 students was
drawn. They were asked if they were happy and contented with the university’s
policies. Out of 100 students, 65 said so. Formulate the appropriate null and
alternative hypotheses to test this claim.
Answer:
Ho: At most, half of the student population are happy and contended with the
university’s policies. In symbols, P ≤ 0.50 while
Ha: Majority of the student population are happy and contended with the
university’s policies. In symbols, P > 0.50
Independent Assessment 1
Suppose that the average passing percentage in the College of Nursing in
the last 10 years in board exams is 97% and this school year there were 300
students who took the exam and the passing percentage is 98% since 294 passed.
What would be the null and alternative hypotheses?
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Test-Statistic and Rejection Region for a
Lesson 2 given Level of Significance when the
Central Limit Theorem is to be use
’s New
Defective Bulbs
Mr. Sy asserts that fewer than 5% of the bulbs that he sells are defective. Suppose 300
bulbs are randomly selected, each are tested and 10 defective bulbs are found. Does this provide
sufficient evidence for Mr. Sy to conclude that the fraction of defective bulbs is less than 0.05?
Use α = 0.01.
Answers:
Formulate the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis
H0: p = p0
H0: p = 0.05 null hypothesis
Ha: p < 0.05 alternative hypothesis
Checking the assumptions
• Is the sample size large enough for the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to apply?
When n = 300, the Central Limit Theorem applies
Choose a significance level size for α (alpha). Make α small when the consequences of rejecting
a true H0 is severe.
α = 0.01
Select the appropriate test statistic.
The test statistic to be used is
𝑝̂−𝑝0
𝑍𝐶 = 𝑝 (1−𝑝0 )
√ 0
𝑛
8
is it
With the assumption of large sample to be able to invoke the Central Limit Theorem, the
appropriate test statistic, denoted as 𝑍𝐶 is computed as
𝑝̂ − 𝑝0
𝑍𝐶 =
√𝑝0 (1 − 𝑝0 )
𝑛
The p-value is the probability that the test statistic will take on a value that is at least as
extreme as the observed value of the statistic when the null hypothesis is assumed to be true.
Thus, a p value conveys much information about the weight of evidence against Ho and so a
decision maker can draw a conclusion at any specified level of significance. Formally, we
define the p-value as the smallest level of significance that would lead to the rejection of the
null hypothesis given the observed data.
In hypothesis testing, the set of all values of test statistic is divided into
two regions, the rejection and acceptance region. If the value of the test statistic
falls in the rejection region, then we reject the null hypothesis. Otherwise, we do
not reject it. If the region rejections are located at the tails of the distribution of
the test statistic, then we have a two-tailed test.
Ha: p ≠ 𝑝𝑜
Otherwise, we have a one-tailed test. The figure below depicts two one- tailed
tests using statistic.
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Figure 2. One-Tailed test
Ha: 𝑝 < 𝑝𝑜
a) Left-tailed
Ha: 𝑝 > 𝑝𝑜
’s More
Independent Activity 2
It is believed that 10% of the children enrolled in the elementary schools
are left-handed. Suppose that in a random survey of the children it will turn out
that 141 out of 800 are left-handed, would you still believe that 10% of the
children are left-handed? Use 0.05 level of significance.
Formulate the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses.
Answer: Ho: p = 0.10
Ha: p ≠ 0.10 (since we want to check whether the actual is different
from the prevailing belief)
Test Statistic to use
𝑝
̂ − 𝑝0
𝑍𝐶 =
√𝑝0 (1 − 𝑝0 )
𝑛
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Critical Region: z > 1.96 or z < -1.96 (since this is two-tailed test)
The next steps will be provided in the next lesson (steps 3-5)
Activity 3
Carry out a test of hypothesis to draw conclusions in relation to each of the
following problems:
Previous evidences show that majority of the students are happy and
contented with the university’s policies. This year, a random sample of 100
students was drawn. They were asked if they were happy and contented with the
university’s policies. Out of 100 students, 65 said so. What conclusions could be
made at 10% level of significance?
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I Have Learned
12
I Can Do
Independent Activity 3
Task: Supply the missing parts of the solution to the following problem.
A school administrator claims that less than 50% of the students of the school are dissatisfied
by the community cafeteria service. Test this claim by using sample data obtained from a
survey of 500 students of the school where 54% indicated their dissatisfaction of the
community cafeteria service. Use α = 0.05
STEPS SOLUTION
1. Describe the parameter of interest. The parameter of interest is the
(1)_____________.
2. Formulate the hypotheses: the null Ho: p = 𝑝0
hypothesis and the alternative
hypothesis. That is, state a null Ho: p = 0.05
hypothesis, Ho, in such a way that a (2) Ha: __________
Type I error can be calculated.
3. Check the assumptions. With n = (3) ______, the Central Limit
Is the sample size large enough for the Theorem applies.
Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to apply?
4. Choose a significance level for α. Make α = 0.05
α small when the consequences of
rejecting a true H0 is severe.
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MULTIPLE CHOICE:
Direction: Read and analyze each statement carefully. Write your answer in your activity
sheet/notebook.
1. In hypothesis testing, this denotes that there is no difference between two parameters.
a. Alternative hypothesis c. Population mean
b. Population proportion d. Null hypothesis
2. The rejection region refers to the region where the value of the test statistic lies for
which we will reject the null hypothesis. This region is also called
a. Hypothesis testing region c. Z – score region
b. Critical region d. Probability region
3. This refers to an intelligent guess about a population proportion.
a. Hypothesis c. Decision
b. Test statistic d. Interpretation
4. What mathematical model is appropriate for decision making?
a. Graphical representation c. test-statistic
b. Normal curve d. None of these
5. For a z-test of proportions, which of the following is the rejection region for a two-
tailed test?
a. z > 𝑧𝑎 or z > -𝑧𝑎 c. z < 𝑧𝑎 or z > -𝑧𝑎
b. z > -𝑧𝑎/2 or z > 𝑧𝑎/2 d. z < -𝑧𝑎/2 or z > 𝑧𝑎/2
6. For a z-test of proportions, which of the following is the rejection region for a one-
tailed test?
a. z > 𝑧𝑎 or z < -𝑧𝑎 c. z > 𝑧𝑎 or z > -𝑧𝑎
b. z < 𝑧𝑎 or z > -𝑧𝑎 d. z > -𝑧𝑎/2 or z > 𝑧𝑎/2
7. For the 95% confidence level, what is the value for 𝛼?
a. α = .01 c. α = .10
b. α = .05 d. α = .025
8. When the null hypothesis is rejected, which of the following is true?
a. There is sufficient evidence to back up the decision.
b. There is no sufficient evidence to back up the decision.
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c. The conclusion is guaranteed.
d. The conclusion is not guaranteed.
9. When the alternative hypothesis utilizes the ≠ symbol, the test is said to be
a. Directional c. critical
b. Non-directional d. not equal
10. When the alternative hypothesis utilizes the > or the < symbol, the test is said to be
a. Directional c. critical
b. Non-directional d. not equal
15
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Pretest
1. T
2. T
3. F, large
4. F, population
5. F, directional
6. T
7. F, z test
8. F, rejected
9. T
10. T
What’s More
Independent Assessment 1
Null hypothesis, 𝐻0 ; p = 0.97
Alternative Hypothesis, 𝐻𝑎 > 0.97
What I can Do
Independent Activity 3
1. population proportion p of dissatisfied students.
2. 𝐻𝑎 : p < 0.05
3. 500
4. One-tailed
5. Z-test statistic
Assessment
1. d
2. b
3. a
4. b
5. d
6. a
7. b
8. c
9. b
10. a
References
Millard R. Mamhot, et al. n.d. "Statistics and Probability”. Unlimited Books Library Services
& Publishing Inc.
Rene Belecina, et al. n.d. "Z-Distribution." In Statistics and Probability, by Rene Belecina. Rex
Bookstore.
Zita VJ Albacea, et al. 2016 "Test on Population Proportion", 374-387. Teaching Guide for
Senior High School, Statistics and probability Core Subjects, by Commission on Higher
Education.
2020. www.slideshare.net.>jurdumango/>statistics-hypothesis. 3Sep10. Accessed March
2021
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