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WaveAnalysis Part3
WaveAnalysis Part3
Long-term analysis
Hm0
t CDF Hmo
LONG TERM WAVE ANALYSIS
F(Hmo)
Mean and extreme climate conditions F(Hm0, Tp, etc..)
¿How long ?
Sediment
transport
POPULATION
time
N
NNW NNE
NW NE
WNW ENE
W E
0% 10% 20% 30%
Hs (m)
WSW ESE <=0.5
>0.5 - 1
>1 - 1.5
>1.5 - 2
SW SE
>2 - 2.5
>2.5 - 3
SSW SSE >3
S
Hs
H si
t
f (H s ) Hs
H si
Hs F (Hs )
H si Pr( H s H s i )
• Year
Ho 4.00
3.00
• Weather pattern
Hs(m)
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
Hs
Hs 0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
P(Hs <Hs0)
0.10
0.60000
0.95000
0.98000
0.99999
0.00100
0.01000
0.10000
0.20000
0.50000
0.70000
0.80000
0.90000
0.99000
0.99800
0.99900
0.99990
0.02000
0.05000
0.30000
0.40000
Ho Prob PROBABILIDAD ACUMULADA
t
Sea states record
M2174 Coastal Processes Wave Analysis
LONG-TERM DISTRIBUTIONS
1-D Statistical distribution of sea state parameters (e.g. Hs,Tm, q, W,..)
Hipothesis:
Random variable, stochastic process, i.i.d, …. f ( x) F ( x)
BUOY-1 GIJÓN
0.8
- Lognormal
- mu=0.238 , sigma=0.5478
0.6
Statistical Model:
fH(H)
0.4
• Parametric
• semi-parametric
0.2
• Non-parametric
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Distribution fitting methods:
H (m) • Probability paper/least square methods
• Moments
• Maximum likelihood
Common distributions/models:
Log-Normal, Weibull Min, Normal, Gumbel Max, Gamma, …
y=F(x) Axis y’
transformation
HsBuoy
Hs Buoy
Stormy peak period:
HsHIPOCAS
Hs HIPOCAS without
without calibration
calibration 12 sec.
HsHIPOCAS
Hs HIPOCAS calibrated
calibrated
Significant wave height
Peak Period
Averaged peak period:
4.5 sec.
Probability
Probability Probability
Fitness techniques:
• Probability paper/least square methods
• Moments / Maximum likelihood
Fitness techniques:
• Probability paper/least square methods
• Moments / Maximum likelihood
Goodness of fit :
• QQ-plots, PP-plots
• Kolmogorov-Smirnov test
• χ2 test, ….
Parametric Semi-paramétric
7.0
Función de densidad conjunta
empírica (Hs2, Tp2)
6.0
- Datos horarios
- 22/3/94 11:00 - 27/12/99 23:00
5.0
4.0
Hs (m)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Tp (s)
7.0
Función de densidad conjunta (Hs2, Tp2)
Psi = 10
4.0
Hs (m)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Tp (s)
Conditioned method: f HT ( H , T ) f H ( H ) fT (T / H )
fH (H )
1 1 log H m 2
exp H
mT ( H ) ?
sH 2 H
2 s
H
sT (H ) ?
fT (T / H ) Normal (T ; mT ( H ), s T ( H ))
Silleiro buoy
20.00 2.50
a=5.0 2.25
18.00 b=4.5
2.00
16.00
1.75
mT ( H ) a b H 14.00
1.50
3
Tp (s)
s T ( H ) ai H i
s Tp
12.00 1.25
i 0
m
1.00
10.00
0.75
8.00 a0=2.09414
a1=-0.116964
0.50 a2=0.039742
a3=-0.00665255
6.00
0.25
4.00 0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Hs (m) Hs (m)
Hs Maxima
máximo H s
t
f (H s ) Hs
Hs Periodo
Return de retorno
period
Coastal management
Flooding risk
Maritime Works
[..unique as a statistical discipline for describing the unusual rather than usual…]
[..the most important statistical discipline for the applied sciences over the last 50 years…]
STATISTICAL MODEL
INFERENCE
UNCERTAINTY CLIMATE
INFORMATION
APPLICATIONS
(MANAGEMENT, DESIGN)
Because extreme events are rare, they occupy the upper tail of a distribution, which requires
specific treatment.
RETURN PERIOD:
The return period can be defined as an average time interval, usually expressed in years,
after which an event of a certain magnitude will be exceeded. Another definition of the
return period is the expected waiting time until an exceedance.
Prob. year = 1%
Return period
100 years
E[ R] i Pr R i i F ( x)i 1 1 F ( x) 1 F ( x)
1
i 1 i 1
1 1
Pr 1 R
R 1 Pr
F ( x; ) exp 1
m location
scale
shape
pdf cdf
M2174 Coastal Processes Wave Analysis
EXTREME DISTRIBUTIONS
The statistical model
s (u m )
1/
um
1
M2174 Coastal Processes Wave Analysis
EXTREME DISTRIBUTIONS
Uncertainty
ˆi
i ˆi
Standard
deviation
real value Estimated value
2) LIKELIHOOD PROFILE
Gijón Langosteira