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Mandem Mandem: Outline Business Plan Outline Business Plan
Mandem Mandem: Outline Business Plan Outline Business Plan
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Mandem BP Outline
Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary............................................................................................................................5
2 Market Overview................................................................................................................................6
2.1 Uganda Macroeconomic.............................................................................................................6
2.2 Kenya Macroeconomic performance.........................................................................................8
2.3 Tanzania Macroeconomic performance...................................................................................10
2.4 Agricultural Sector....................................................................................................................11
2.5 Grain Sub-Sector.......................................................................................................................11
2.5.1 Legal & Regulatory Regime...............................................................................................11
2.6 Overview of Market..................................................................................................................11
2.6.1 Value Chain Analysis..........................................................................................................11
2.6.2 Market Segmentation in Uganda......................................................................................11
2.6.3 Regional Market < Kenya, South Sudan and Congo>........................................................12
2.6.4 Competitor Analysis..........................................................................................................12
3 Mandem Go-to-Market Strategy......................................................................................................13
3.1 Overview...................................................................................................................................13
3.2 Target market...........................................................................................................................13
3.2.1 Overview...........................................................................................................................13
3.2.2 Maize Market....................................................................................................................13
3.2.3 Beans Market....................................................................................................................13
3.2.4 Buyers................................................................................................................................13
3.3 Infrastructure Requirements....................................................................................................13
4 Organizational Overview..................................................................................................................15
4.1 Ownership.................................................................................................................................15
4.2 Organizational Structure..........................................................................................................15
4.3 Key Team Profiles.....................................................................................................................15
4.4 Operational & Staffing plan......................................................................................................15
5 Financial Projections.........................................................................................................................16
5.1 Key Financial Requirements.....................................................................................................16
5.1.1 Opex Budget......................................................................................................................16
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Abbreviations
<to insert>
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1 Executive Summary
<<To complete at the End>>
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2 Market Overview
2.1 Uganda Macroeconomic
Uganda’s economy is projected to grow by 6.2% this financial year 2020/21. The economic outlook
for 2021 is very positive thanks to a recovery in the agriculture sector, the sustained growth in
services, and the continued huge investment by the government into public infrastructure.
According to Uganda Bureau of Statistics’ (UBOS) latest data, the economy grew by 6.4% year on year
in the first quarter of FY20/21, continuing with the same momentum from the last quarter of
FY19/20. This was a major improvement from the 4.5% growth that was realized in the first quarter of
FY19/20. The Government is now projecting the economy to grow by 6.2% in the FY2020/21. This
prediction is contained in the National Budget Framework Paper 2020/21 (BFP) published by the
Ministry of Finance in December 2020.
The projected growth will be driven mainly by the continued recovery in the agriculture sector. The
agriculture sector largely benefiting from favorable weather conditions, is currently the major driver
of economic growth having recorded a 1.2% growth in the second quarter of FY20/21, up from the
0.6% growth registered in the first quarter. This recovery in the agricultural sector and the associated
exports has given a major boost to the economy.
The Medium-term growth of the economy is also very positive. The government is projecting the
economy to grow by 6.2% in the next financial year 2019/20, with agriculture, industry and services
projected to grow at 3.8%, 5.6% and 7.8% respectively. Domestic demand supported by healthy
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private sector credit (PSC), as well as investments in public infrastructure together with Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) inflows are also expected to drive growth of the economy in FY19/20.
This positive outlook assumes continued good weather conditions, robust external demand, increase
in FDI inflows as oil exports draw closer, and public infrastructure spending is properly executed as
planned.
At the moment, most macroeconomic fundamentals in the country remain positive. For example,
foreign exchange reserves are adequate currently at 5.3 months of import cover; consumer price
inflation is comfortably below the BoU’s medium term target of 5.0%; and public debt though
increasing, is still considered sustainable.
Over the next two years, massive investments in infrastructure development related to the oil and
gas sector and the related expected increase in FDI inflows have the potential to drive Uganda’s
economic growth to 7.0% or more.
In the last six months (first half of FY18/19), annual headline and core inflation averaged 3.0% and
3.4% respectively.
The low inflation recorded during the period was mainly due to the relatively stable exchange rate
and favorable weather conditions, which resulted in an increase in food supplies. On this account,
annual inflation remains within BoU’s medium term target rate of 5.0%.
Annual headline inflation is projected to rise to 5.1% mainly on account of increasing oil prices and
increase in domestic demand following a rebound in economic growth. However, in FY19/20 and the
medium term, headline inflation is projected to remain stable within single digits and core inflation
remaining close to BoU’s policy target rate of 5.0%.
The country’s macroeconomic policy stance remains focused on containing inflationary pressures,
enhancing exchange rate stability, and stepping up domestic resource mobilization growth by 0.5%
points of GDP per annum.
The Shilling has remained relatively stable despite external pressures. After a record low of UShs
3,897 to the USD, back in September 2018, the Shilling has recovered, and even appreciated since
then. This slight appreciation of the shilling is on account of increased dollar inflows mainly from
coffee export receipts, off shore portfolio investors and private transfers. The Shilling is projected to
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remain stable for the remainder of FY18/19 and probably even appreciate in the medium to long run,
as a result of
increased dollar inflows from exports, remittances, FDI and tourism; as well as the commencement of
oil production.
Despite this optimism, the shilling remains susceptible to external shocks. It is therefore possible that
we could see further sharp depreciations of the shilling due to the stronger than expected US dollar
as well as the continuing global trade policy, uncertainty emanating from escalating trade tensions,
tightening global financial conditions and rising geo-political risks.
A continuation of the weak current account position resulting from the higher import growth may
also result in a depreciation of the shilling. Any renewed exchange rate volatility of the shilling will be
bad news for the economy and inflation in particular, as it could further weigh down on consumer
demand by raising prices for imported consumer goods.
URA
NSSF
Ministry of Agriculture
Ministry of Trade
Local Town Councils
PPDA
o Regulatory reporting requirements (inspections, reports)
URA
NSSF
UNBS
2.4 Overview of Market
2.4.1 Value Chain Analysis
o Production
Post Harvest Management
o Trade ( Local & Regional)
o Logistics
o Processing
o Marketing & Distribution
Logistics
Seasonality ( Peaks & Troughs)
3.2.4 Buyers
Who are the key buyers? (retail/wholesale)\
o World Food Programme
o Governments
o Export market (China)
What is their pricing power i.e how much say do they have on pricing?
o Minimal
3.3 Infrastructure Requirements
Location
Kyenjojo (potential)
Kyankwanzi (potential)
Infrastructure & Equipment Requirements
Silos
Warehouse
Cleaner
Drier
Weigh-bridge
Generator
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Mill
Diesel storage/ energy source/ bio gas
Hurler - coffee
Roaster - coffee
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4 Organizational Overview
4.1 Ownership
This section will have the company’s current key shareholders and their profiles
5 Financial Projections
5.1 Key Financial Requirements
5.1.1 Opex Budget
5.1.2 CAPEX Budget
5.2 Financial Projections
5.2.1 Key Assumptions
5.2.2 Base Case
5.2.3 Scenario Testing
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6 Appendices
a. Full Base Case Financials