Ten Years To Midnight

Ten Years to Midnight
Four urgent global crises and their strategic solutions
The solutions to the world's most urgent challenges are

within reach, but we only have ten years.
As you look at the
crises the world faces, a striking
pattern reveals itself. We have ten
years to find answers and implement
them. We cannot use 20th century
logic to meet this challenge. That logic
has led to steady improvements in
living standards across the world, but
it has also given rise to these
challenges and failed to meet them.
We need systematically different
approaches to creating a better future,
building on the creativity and power of
markets but setting them in a new
context.
PwC’s book Ten Years to Midnight:

Four urgent global crises and their
strategic solutions by Blair
Sheppard and his team examines the
root causes of the crises and suggests
a few strategic solutions that could
begin to fix them.
Buy now
Reviews from leaders around the world
Makoto Harpal Singh Alan Schwartz Julia Pomares Dr. Li Yinuo

Gonokami
Four crises
The world’s most acute issues PwC summarized in ADAPT (see PwC's
ADAPT framework) set in motion four broad crises that, if not addressed,
will cause irreparable harm in the next ten years: a crisis of prosperity, a
crisis of technology, a crisis of institutional legitimacy, and a crisis of
leadership. All dangerously intertwined, these four crises have forced us to
rethink and reconfigure the future. They have also been accelerated by the
COVID-19 pandemic.
A crisis of A crisis of A crisis of A crisis of

prosperity technology institutional leadership
legitimacy
It is felt acutely by young people starting out in the world of work - at a time
when unemployment and underemployment is rampant throughout the
world, work is becoming more insecure, housing costs are up to 40
times1 the median income in some cities and the aging populations in many
countries will mean a growing tax burden falls on their shoulders. But this is
not just a crisis for youth. At the other end of people’s working lives, people
face retirement with grossly insufficient savings, and a host of people mid-
career have mortgages, childcare and education costs while being at real
risk of job loss due to automation and other factors.
1. Source: https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/
A crisis of technology. Innovation has fuelled amazing improvements in
quality of life and productivity around the world, but our systems for keeping
negative effects in check have proved themselves not up to the task. PwC
estimates that, by 2030, 36% of jobs held by those with medium education
and 44% of job held by those with low education could be lost to
automation1. Whether you think about the impact of our 20th century energy
infrastructure on our atmosphere and climate, or the impact of the large
technology platforms on our society, we are seeing technology create new
problems as unintended consequences. From the dramatic changes to the
human brain and behaviour, to the invasion of privacy, to the loss of work
across all elements of the workforce technologies that were intended to
provide real benefits to society also cause real harms.
1. Source:
term impactPwC,
of “Will Robots2018.
automation,” Really Steal
PwC Our Jobs?
analysis, An international analysis of the potential long
based
International Assessment of Adult Competencies public on data from the OECD Programme for the
databasehttp://www.oecd.org/skills/piaac/publicdataandanalysis/
Our institutions have not kept up with the changing needs of society. As the
world has rapidly evolved, the governance and customs of major societal
institutions remained locked in the past. The result is not that those
institutions maintain their past role, but instead that the force of change
warps the way they work. For example, 13 of the 15 most polarizing
brands1 in the United States are media companies.
1. Source:
Consult, “Media1,Companies
October Dominate Most Divisive Brands List, and It Keeps Getting Worse,” Morning
2019, https://morningconsult.com/2019/10/01/polarizing-brands-2019/
The most obvious example is the incredible lack of action taken to address
climate change. The overall goal of the 2016 Paris climate accord was to
hold global average temperature increases to “well below 2 degrees
centigrade above pre-industrial levels.” Out of 195 signatories, only seven
countries met this goal and none of them are major contributors to
greenhouse gases1. But we are also seeing it on other issues that require
global cooperation - from economic stimulus to vaccine development. When
people’s local concerns become too acute, leadership behaviour gets
increasingly parochial and the world is perceived as a zero-sum game.
1. Source: “Climate Action Tracker,” https://climateactiontracker.org/countries
Solutions
We have ten years to make fundamental, systemic change, at scale. We

cannot use 20th century logic to address these challenges. It was that logic
that created the crises. The book provides an alternative path that builds on
the best of our thinking and proposes how to modify our approaches to
adapt to the context, challenges and opportunities the world faces today. It
needs to be replaced with a new way of thinking about what success means
and how to achieve it.
Rethinking Reimaginin Repairing Refreshing Massive and

Economic g Success Failing Technology Fast
Growth Institutions
Rethinking Economic Growth—Local First
It starts by rethinking globalization. The classic logic of macroeconomics
since World War II asserts that globalization and global trade create wealth
and prosperity. And, they do. The problem is that this economic success
resulted in the crises identified above. The world is no longer willing or able
to consume at scale products or services produced by another low-cost
region. We need to turn the logic of globalization on its head and focus on
developing successful local economies first.
Reimagining Success—Thriving in a Broken
World
The ways in which we have always measured success no longer work. A
narrow focus on GDP has caused countries to miss the deep differences in
the well-being of their citizens; growth has not been universal. In addition,
economic growth is not always aligned with social progress. In focusing on
shareholder value, organizations have lost sight of their larger
responsibilities to the societies in which they operate. We need to redefine
success so that it is inclusive and recognizes the deep interdependencies at
the heart of the sustained success of any country, organization or person.
Repairing Failing Institutions—Cementing the
Foundations
We need a period of institutional repair. We cannot have educational
establishments preparing students for the world of the past rather than the
one they will enter any more than we can rely on global institutions to
coordinate across an increasingly fractured world. Each institution needs to
identify its core role in society, revitalize its commitment to playing that role
and redesign itself with today’s context in mind. Governance needs to
engage stakeholders broadly while permitting rapid change.
Refreshing Technology—Innovation as a
Social Good
The problems created by technology will not be solved by technology alone.
Technology is indifferent to its outcomes so it is only when we are astute
about its unintended consequences - and, for example, design with social
good in mind - that it can work to serve society’s broader needs. To achieve
this it is critical to focus on at least five simple ideas: we cannot control what
we do not understand; increasingly information is both a public and a private
good; all organizations have agendas so civil society must play a role; we
need to learn how to govern things we cannot see; and people’s use of
technology is the most critical determinant of its positive or negative
consequences so we need to discipline ourselves.
Massive and Fast—Problems That Cannot
Wait
All of the ideas outlined above would ordinarily take time to execute and we
do not have it. We don’t have ten years to make a start; we have ten years
to make fundamental, systemic change. There is very little precedent for
solutions required so quickly at such scale, but we can see some evolving
that borrow from lessons of history, such as the Marshall Plan.
Leadership: Reframing Influence—Balancing Paradoxes
Driving that scale of change in today’s world will take leadership fit for the
task. We need a new model. Leaders need capabilities and sensibilities that
seem at odds with each other: technologically sophisticated while also
deeply aware of human systems and psychology; heroically courageous,
but humble enough to listen and change course if needed; deeply aware of
the foundational elements of the things we are trying to change, but highly
innovative to name a few (see PwC’s Six paradoxes of leadership). The
foundational task for leaders of nations, institutions and businesses is to
foster this kind of leadership so the world can meet the crises that threaten
us all.
Finally, while the book was written prior to COVID-19, the pandemic has
accelerated virtually every trend discussed. It is intended to remind
everyone that there is very little time to rethink and act before the world
becomes a much worse place. But, this book is ultimately hopeful. The
authors have faith that humanity will rise to the challenge and offer both a
frame to understand the current state of the world, and a way to think about
creating the future that will serve all in under 200 pages. Its exhortation is to
get to work.
About the lead author

Blair Sheppard
Global Leader, Strategy and Leadership for the

PwC network
Blair Sheppard joined PwC in 2012 as the global

leader for strategy and leadership. Blair leads the
team responsible for articulating PwC’s global
strategy across 158 countries and the
development of the current and next generation of
PwC leaders. He is also Professor Emeritus and
Dean Emeritus of Duke University’s Fuqua School
of Business.
Blair has advised more than 100 companies and

governments in the areas of leadership, corporate
strategy, organizational relationships and design,
and has published more than 50 books and
articles. His most recent articles, A crisis of
legitimacy and Adapting to a new
world published in strategy+business magazine,
focus on the most acute global challenges facing
the world today, including those of the post-
COVID-19 landscape.

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Ten Years to Midnight

Four urgent global crises and their strategic solutions

The solutions to the world's most urgent challenges are

PwC’s book Ten Years to Midnight:

Reviews from leaders around the world

Makoto Harpal Singh Alan Schwartz Julia Pomares Dr. Li Yinuo

A crisis of A crisis of A crisis of A crisis of

We have ten years to make fundamental, systemic change, at scale. We

Rethinking Reimaginin Repairing Refreshing Massive and

Leadership: Reframing Influence—Balancing Paradoxes

About the lead author

Global Leader, Strategy and Leadership for the

Blair Sheppard joined PwC in 2012 as the global

Blair has advised more than 100 companies and

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