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Microsoft (MSFT)

December 5, 2019

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is the largest manufacturer of software. It develops and sells software
products for a wide variety of computing environments in consumer and business markets.
Hardware products include the Xbox video game console and Surface laptops. Revenue sources
in fiscal 2019 included Productivity & Business Processes, 33%; Intelligent Cloud, 31%; More
Personal Computing, 36%. R&D, was 13% of 2019 revenues.

INVESTMENT THESIS

Cloud computing  is thought to be the future of business and Microsoft’s Azure is a top service
that is benefiting from the trend toward combining traditional software with cloud computing
(hybrid) first and later the shift toward individual use of cloud computing. Meanwhile, Microsoft
has a near monopoly in both in software applications (Microsoft Office) and operating systems
(Windows 10). We expect these businesses to be used to fund other of the company’s growth
initiatives. Finally, the shift from software purchases to software licensing is also benefiting
Microsoft.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Microsoft reported first-quarter results for fiscal 2020 (ended September 30) after the market
close on October 23. Operating Earnings topped the consensus forecast by $0.15 and revenue
surpassed the consensus by $837 million.
First-quarter revenue increased 14% year-over-year to $33 billion. Foreign exchange headwinds
trimmed nearly 200 basis points from revenue growth. The Intelligent Cloud and Productivity
and Business Processes segments along with a small contribution from More Personal
Computing drove strong revenue growth. Azure cloud services had another strong quarter with
63% constant currency growth. The gross margin widened to 69% from 66%, reflecting an
improved sales mix shift to higher margin businesses. Reported operating income rose 27% to
approximately $13 billion. The operating margin expanded by 4 percentage points, to 38%,
driven by expanding gross margins and carefully managed expenses. Adjusted diluted earnings
increased 21% to $1.38 per share.

EARNINGS & GROWTH ANALYSIS

We are raising our FY20 operating EPS to $5.60 from $5.30 and our FY21 forecast by a nickel
to $5.90. During the conference call, management maintained its forecast for double-digit
revenue and operating income growth in FY20. Management also increased its outlook on full
year operating margin to modest expansion from a previous guidance of unchanged.
RISKS

Microsoft faces fierce competition from Google, among many others, in many areas, including
internet search, operating system software and internet-based software applications. This
competition could reduce the dominance of Microsoft's operating system and Office applications.

VALUATION

Microsoft shares have gained 49% year-to-date including the dividend, compared to a 25%
increase for the S&P 500 and a 33% gain for the S&P Information Technology Index. Given the
company’s strong growth prospects, we think the shares are undervalued.  As such, we are
maintaining our BUY-rating and $180 target price. Our target, if achieved, offers investors the
prospect of a nerly 22% return, including its dividend.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Current Price: $149.85

Target Price: $180

Current Valuation: 26.7 times FY20 EPS

Target Valuation: 32.1 times FY20 EPS

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