2021

The Indonesian FMCG

Landscape In 2020
And Beyond
Despite the very encouraging news of the Sinovac vaccines being
ready and vaccines from Pfizer and Modena potentially also
arriving to Indonesia, the deployment timeline and vaccination
velocity remains a question mark. 2020 is perhaps one of the most
1
unique years for the FMCG industry for both its disruption to how
goods are both sold and bought and how consumers make their
purchase decisions now that everyone’s lifestyle has been
dramatically changed. We have observed Indonesian consumer
behaviour throughout 2020 and have seen tremendous shifts
across a multitude of categories as a result of COVID-19

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 2021
2020’s Covid:
A Tectonic Shift
Indonesia’s Covid-19 Timeline
February 2 March 2 March 11 March 15

243 Indonesian Nationals First officially confirmed First Indonesian COVID Death Past 100 confirmed
evacuated from Wuhan and cases of COVID-19 in infections
placed in Natuna Islands for Indonesia
quarantine but remain
untested due to lack of
symptoms

2
March 27 March 23 March 22 March 20

Past 1,000 confirmed First COVID makeshift Past 500 confirmed State of emergency
infections hospital (Wisma Atlet) infections declared in Jakarta and East
inaugurated Java and for offices to stop
operations

March 31 April 10 April 13 April 15

COVID Declared by Jokowi First 14-Day PSBB applied in COVID declared a National Past 5,000 confirmed
as public health emergency Jakarta Disaster by the President infections
and mandated police to
enforce large scale social
distancing policy

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May 29 May 22 April 30 April 22

Past 25,000 confirmed Jakarta PSBB ended Past 10,000 confirmed PSBB extended another
infections infections month in Jakarta
 2021
June 4 June 25 June 27 Aug 5

Jakarta PSBB loosened Past 50,000 confirmed Past 100,000 confirmed Presidential Executive Order
infections infections authorizing local governments
to fine or impose social
punishment for facial mask
non-compliance & businesses
not adhering to COVID
restrictions enforceable by
police and military

Nov 25 Oct 12 Sep 25 Sep 8

Past 500,000 confirmed 2nd PSBB loosened 2nd PSBB in effect in Jakarta Past 200,000 confirmed
infections infections

3
Dec 6 Dec 16 Dec 31

1.2 Million Sinovac Vaccines Jokowi first Indonesian to Indonesia ended the year
arrived in Indonesia take the vaccine—vaccines with 743,200 confirmed
declared free for all infections and 4.9 Million of
Indonesian citizens the population tested in total

Overall, average consumer grocery spending per trip in 2020 vs 2019 is negative 7.5%
across all categories. This drop suggests the impact of the pandemic on the
Indonesian economy. The Indonesian economy is estimated to have contracted its
GDP by 2.2% in 2020 and unemployment is up nearly 2% from the past year. This
1

combined with the less documented salary cuts throughout a large portion of the
population can easily explain the lack of growth in Indonesian consumer demand for

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groceries.

1 https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/publication/december-2020-indonesia-economic-prospects
 2021
The Category
Casualties of 2020
of all categories we tracked suffered double digit

53% declines in average consumer spending per trip

between 2020 and 2019. The 5 Worst performing
categories are as follows:

-25.5% Air Fresheners

4

-25.2% Cosmetics

-24.7% Coffee

-23.3% Confectionaries

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-17.9% RTD Drinks
 2021
The Outperformers
in 2020
The Top 5 performing categories
in 2020, showing significant growth are:

Vitamins 58.4%
5
Seasoning 41.4%

Powdered Milk 24.4%

Nuts 24.3%

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Tea 8.8%
 2021
Healthy & Home
Cooking: The Key
FMCG Trend of 2020
Through looking at categorical performance, even in simply the 10
listed above, we can draw clear conclusions as how consumers
have shifted their spending in 2020: an increased focus on
health, cooking at home and healthier options.
6
Both the focus on wellness combined with COVID concerns and
paranoia has resulted in an explosive 58.4% growth of the Vitamins
category in 2020. Vitamin demand across 2020 essentially
reflected consumer sentiment on the state of COVID with a strong
correlation (r=0.71)
between vitamin spending and our own COVID 19 sentiment
tracker we deployed on April 2020.

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 2021
Negative Correlation Between Vitamin
Spend & Sentiment On Covid

Avg. Spend
Per Basket

IDR SENTIMENT
INDEX

40.000 -2,25

35.000 -2,3

30.000 -2,35

25.000 -2,4
PSBB 1 PSBB 2

20.000 -2,45 7
15.000 -2,55

.10

.12
.11
.4

.8

.9
.6
.3

.5
.2

.7
.1
20

20
20

20

20

20

20
20
20

20

20
20
20

20
20

20

20

20

20
20
20

20

20
20

VITAMIN SPEND PER TRIP COVID 19 SENTIMENT

Consumers bought more vitamins when their overall market

positivity sentiments toward COVID19 declined. We measured their

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sentiments toward trust in authority, personal situation, covid19
situation and economic prospect.
 2021
As we’ve also previously covered in a past article, home cooking
has become trend that has continued throughout 2020 as the
Seasoning category has grown 41.4% vs 2019 on average and is
the 2nd best performing category for the year while trending
upwards nearly every month in 2020.

Seasoning

Avg. Spend
Per Basket

16.500 8
15.500

14.500

13.500

12.500

11.500

10.500
.10

.12
.11
.4

.8

.9
.6
.3

.5
.2

.7
.1

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20

20
20

20

20

20

20
20
20

20

20
20
20

20
20

20

20

20

20
20
20

20

20
20
 2021
This overall trend is further supported by the uptrend of other home
cooking related categories like Soy Sauce, Chili Sauce, Cooking Oil,
Egg and Processed Meat & Seafood:

Soy 24.500
Sauce 23.500

22.500
Avg. Spend
Per Basket 21.500

20.500

19.500

18.500

2020.10

2020.12
2020.11
2020.4

2020.8

2020.9
2020.6
2020.3

2020.5
2020.2

2020.7
2020.1

Chilli 13.500
13.300
Sauce 13.100
12.900
12.700
Avg. Spend
Per Basket

12.500
12.300
12.100
11.900

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11.700
11.500
2020.10

2020.12
2020.11
2020.4

2020.8

2020.9
2020.6
2020.3

2020.5
2020.2

2020.7
2020.1
 2021
Cooking Oil Eggs
Avg. Spend
Per Basket
55.000 Avg. Spend
Per Basket
53.000
51.000 26.000
49.000
25.000
47.000
45.000 24.000

43.000 23.000
41.000
22.000
39.000
21.000
37.000
35.000 20.000
2020.10

2020.10
2020.12

2020.12
2020.11

2020.11
2020.4

2020.4
2020.8

2020.8
2020.9

2020.9
2020.6

2020.6
2020.3

2020.3
2020.5

2020.5
2020.2

2020.2
2020.7

2020.7
2020.1

2020.1
10
Avg. Spend
Processed Per Basket

40.000
Meat &
38.000
Seafood 36.000

34.000

32.000

30.000

28.000

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2020.10

2020.12
2020.11
2020.4

2020.8

2020.9
2020.6
2020.3

2020.5
2020.2

2020.7
2020.1
 2021
A survey we launched in mid-2020 highlighted this focus as many
have shifted towards starting their own F&B business to
supplement/replace lost income sources.

Are you or any of your friends/relatives

starting or exploring to have a food business?
My friends/family/I am planning it
63
None that i know of
37
Source: Snapcart Home Cooking Survey, June 20 to 22, 2020
(N=4,617), weight based on SUSENAS 2016 (SES, age group, region) 11
This surge in home cooking is a function of both economic
difficulties, a hobby/skill to be picked up with more time at home
but also a larger trend toward healthier lifestyles in Indonesia. The
surge in home cooking is also running in parallel to an accelerated
trend toward healthier eating as evident in the change between
pre-processed foods vs raw materials for cooking. Chocolates,
Instant noodles, biscuits and wafers (even with the boost in

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demand from Lebaran) showed downtrends in 2020 while in
contrast healthy options like yogurt and nuts were on an upward
trajectory in average category spend per trip.
 Avg. Spend Avg. Spend Avg. Spend
Per Basket Per Basket Per Basket

17.000
27.000

21.000

15.000
19.000
25.000
29.000

23.000

16.000
14.000
18.000
22.000
20.000
26.000

11.500
24.000
30.000
28.000

12.500
15.500

13.500
16.500

14.500
2020.1 2020.1 2020.1

2020.2 2020.2 2020.2

2020.3 2020.3 2020.3

2020.4 2020.4 2020.4

2020.5 2020.5 2020.5

2020.6 2020.6 2020.6

2020.7 2020.7 2020.7

2020.8 2020.8 2020.8

Biscuits
Chocolate

2020.9 2020.9 2020.9

2020.10 2020.10 2020.10

2020.11 2020.11 2020.11

2020.12 2020.12 2020.12

Yoghurt & Yoghurt Drink

Avg. Spend Avg. Spend Avg. Spend
Per Basket Per Basket Per Basket

11.000

17.500
21.000
31.000

16.000
41.000

15.500
19.500

16.500

14.500
18.500
17.500

17.000

26.000
36.000
46.000
15.500
16.500

15.000
16.000

14.500

14.000

2020.1 2020.1 2020.1

2020.2 2020.2 2020.2
2020.3 2020.3 2020.3
2020.4 2020.4 2020.4
2020.5 2020.5 2020.5
2020.6 2020.6 2020.6
Nuts

2020.7 2020.7
Wafers

2020.7
2020.8 2020.8 2020.8
2020.9 2020.9 2020.9
Instant Noodle

2020.10 2020.10 2020.10

2020.11 2020.11 2020.11
2020.12 2020.12 2020.12

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 2021
With full distribution and a timeline to achieve herd immunity in
Indonesia still unclear, retailers and brands should expect this trend
to continue as users will continue to focus on their health as the
virus becomes more widespread. It is also likely that many
consumers have become recently educated/more aware of
nutrition and health, creating an expanded market for products
espousing such benefits with which brands and retailers should
capitalize on.

13
The trend towards home cooking will also persist as consumers will
continue to cook food at home due to its economic benefits
compared to eating out as some also pursue home cooking as an
additional income source. As raw goods will be in high demand,
producers should gear their processing, packaging and marketing
towards B2C efforts rather than their B2B efforts in supplying
traditional restaurants and F&B establishments to better gain
market share in a greatly expanded B2C market.

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 2021
What Will Consumers
do in 2021?
Studies have shown that it takes on average 2 months for actions
and behaviour to become a habit and certainly we are well past that
time. We asked our panel to hear how they feel and think about how
they will approach 2021: their views on the pandemic, their
concerns on financial status, their shopping habits and more.
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The impact of COVID has had a profound behaviour and a shift in
focus towards more risk-averse spending as consumers look like
they will focus on staying close to home, focusing on essentials
and looking for good deals as over 80% said that the pandemic
will change how they shop completely in 2021.

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 2021
How Will Your
Shopping Change
In 2021?
Will focus on purchasing products on promotion/discount

86%
Will primarily stick to retailers close to home
15
82%
Will only go to stores with less people/foot traffic
To observe social distancing

77%
Will focus spending primarily on essentials

75%

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Will make fewer but bigger shopping trips

53%
 2021
There is a clear shift for 2021 for both retailers and brands as
consumers are lasered in to getting good deals on essentials
primarily near their homes. Retailers must also focus on providing a
sterile shopping environment as 93% of consumers feel that mask
wearing and temperature checks are required for them to feel safe
when shopping.

The onset of COVID has also had a disruptive impact on

consumer’s livelihoods and impacted their livelihoods and financial
16
security significantly. 70% of our panel has had their workflow
disrupted and 72% saying their financial security is below
secure currently.

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 2021
How Has Your
Workflow Changed?
Unchanged & operating as normal

30%
I am on forced leave or have been let go
17
26%
I am coming in to work on an alternating shift

23%
I am fully working from home

22%

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 2021
How Do You Feel
About Your Financial
Security?
Very Secure

6%
Secure 18
22%
Getting by

45%
Insecure

17%

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Very Insecure

10%
 2021
With so many feeling the economic squeeze due to COVID’s impact
and its damage to the consumer’s sense of financial security, it is
no surprise that 86% of consumers have said they are going to
focus on shopping for products on sale/discount/promotion. We’ve
asked what their most preferred promotion method to be:

Consumers' Promotion
Preference during
19
COVID
Discount

33%
Cashback/Points

20%

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Getting by

19%
 2021
Bulk buying pricing

11%
Bundling

9%
Voucher for the next purchase

8%

Given the economic condition direct price cuts in the form of 20

discounts are the most appealing as it has no cash flow effect on
purchase, followed by cashbacks which involve a slight impact to
cash flow. This is certainly something to consider for brand’s
budget planning for the coming year.

In Indonesia it feels like we are hitting all-time highs every few

weeks when it comes to daily infection rates. Currently COVID 19
infection is prevalent within 64% of an Indonesian’s 1st to

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3rd degree of contact.
 2021
How Close Has
Covid Infections
Been To You?
Just heard stories from others of someone getting infected

56%
Someone in my area has been infected by COVID

22% 21
Friend of a friend has been infected by COVID

17%
Workplace colleague has been infected by COVID

12%
My family member or friend has been infected by COVID

11%

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I have been infected by COVID

3%
 2021
Despite this however, Indonesians are overall still optimistic that
2021 will be the end of COVID and a return to the old normal as
70% of consumers believe that Indonesia will return to the
old normal within the next 6 months:

When do you expect

COVID to end and life
returns to Old Normal? 22
Very soon

39%
Mid-2021

31%
After 2021

16%

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End of 2021

14%
 2021
To support this sentiment, we’ve also asked consumers what they
think are the primary indicators of a return to the Old Normal:

WHAT IS THE PRIMARY

INDICATOR THAT THINGS
ARE HEADING BACK
TO OLD NORMAL? 23

Improving economy

17.3%
Availability of Vaccine

17.1%
Lower fatality rates

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15.7%
 2021
Falling infection rates

15%
Less travel restrictions

11%
Less retailer restrictions

8.7%
Other: Remaining 24
%

For Indonesians, it seems the primary indicator is an improving

economy and the vaccine’s availability and certainly, given the
aforementioned number of people concerned about their financial
situation it is no surprise that this is their top indicator of normalcy.

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 2021
Despite the vaccine’s availability being another near equal
indicator, consumers are relatively wary of them with 57% saying
they will take the vaccine and 35% being unsure. It is said that for
COVID herd immunity to be achieved, at least 75% of the
population needs to be immunized 2 . However, based on the
responses we are still at a 18% deficit to hit this threshold in
Indonesia. One of the key reasons for this is potentially the
government’s vaccine supply from Sinovac which still requires
clinical trials 3 with still no clear efficacy rate versus other vaccines
developed from the likes of Pfizer and Moderna. Perhaps this gap
can be bridged once Indonesia’s BPOM come to a conclusion with 25
its clinical trials and Indonesia can progress towards herd immunity.

Though consumers seem optimistic, their shopping behaviour and

current financial situation will still take time to change, likely past
2021. Understanding consumer sentiment and the lessons of
operating under the pandemic in 2020 will prove to be key to how
brands and retailers will need to adjust their strategy for the coming
year.

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2 https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/11/06/covid-19-vaccine-key-for-herd-immunity.html

3 https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/12/15/bpom-to-extend-monitoring-stage-of-sinovac
vaccine-trial-for-next-three-months.html
 2021
Do you still have unanswered questions
regarding Indonesian consumer
behavior for 2021?

Please reach out to us

at [email protected].

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