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A2 Midterms - Northwestern - 9.18
A2 Midterms - Northwestern - 9.18
9.18
2AC Reps Win
Dems will get crushed
Schoen 9-12 [Douglas Schoen is a political consultant and former advisor to President
Clinton; “Without drastic changes, Democrats are on track to lose big in 2022” The Hill,
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/571868-without-drastic-changes-dems-are-on-track-to-
lose-big-in-2022]
The marked decline in support for President Biden and his administration nationally and in key swing
states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022
midterm elections . Moreover, Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his
most recent Democratic predecessors — Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — at this point in their
presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than
the party did in 1994 and 2010. Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing states
disapprove , rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a margin of 7 points or greater,
according to a Civiqs survey released last week. Nationally, 50 percent of voters disapprove of
the job Biden is doing as president, while just 42 percent approve. For reference, at the same point in Obama’s first
term, Obama’s net approval rating was 19 points higher than Biden’s is right now. At the time, a
majority of voters (52 percent) approved of Obama, while 41 percent disapproved, according to a Gallup survey released on Sept. 13,
2009. That being said, in the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost a net of 64 House seats and
Republicans gained six seats in the Senate. Likewise, on Sept. 12, 1993, Clinton’s approval rating was recorded at 47
percent approve and 42 percent disapprove by a Gallup survey. To put that in context, Clinton’s net approval rating was 13 points
higher than Biden’s is at the same point in his presidency. Yet in the 1994 midterms, Democrats lost a net of 52 House seats and
Republicans picked up eight seats in the Senate. To note, Democrats’ blowout midterm defeats in both 1994 and 2010 can be
attributed in large part to their passage of massive spending and tax bills in the years prior. The Democrats’ 1994 defeat came after
they pushed through Congress the then-largest tax increase in history without any Republican support. And in 2010, Democrats lost
due in large part to voters’ perception of an ineffective economic stimulus as well as governmental overreach on health care and the
economy by the administration and congressional Democrats. To note, a number of recent polls show that voters have grown
increasingly negative on the Biden administration’s handling of major domestic issues, including the economy, COVID-19,
immigration at the southern border and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. And now, with congressional
Democrats having approved a budget blueprint in their $ 3.5 trillion dollar spending bill —
which will bring massive tax increases and will likely increase the debt, deficit and inflation
— the electoral backlash against Democrats could be even more substantial than in both 1994
and 2010. In addition to Biden’s precipitous national decline, the president’s approval rating in key swing states, most of which
he won in 2020, has dropped. This of course bodes poorly for Democrats’ 2022 prospects — and also makes it increasingly likely that
five key swing
Biden will be a one-term president — notwithstanding a dramatic turn of events in Democrats’ favor. In
states — Georgia, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — voters disapprove, rather
than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a 10-point margin or greater, according to the aforementioned Civiqs polls. To
note, Biden won Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania in 2020 and narrowly lost North Carolina and Florida. And in Michigan
and Wisconsin — two swing states that were once reliably Democratic, both of which Biden won
in 2020 — voters now disapprove of the president’s job performance by margins of 7 and 8
points, respectively. It is noteworthy that, both nationally and in these key states, Biden’s approval has been driven down in
large part by independent voters. Though Biden won national independent voters handily in 2020, a majority (58 percent) now
disapprove of the president, while just 31 percent approve. This data is clearly troubling for Democrats — especially when taken
together with the fact that the mere circumstances of the 2022 midterms are challenging for the party.
Republicans need to pick up just five House seats, and redistricting alone could cost
Democrats close to or even more than that number. Further, since World War II, only
twice has the president’s party gained seats in the midterm elections — in 1998 and 2002 , when
both presidents had approval ratings over 60 percent and, even so, saw only meager House seat gains. Simply put, the
current 2022 outlook for Democrats is grim — and it could get even worse. If the Biden
administration continues to push unnecessarily big government spending initiatives and tax increases, along with weak immigration
Democrats could suffer the most substantial
policies and an incoherent foreign policy strategy,
midterm loss of any party in recent history.
2AC Thumpers/Can’t Predict
Other issues like Afghanistan and coronavirus thump ---- but
predictions now will fail
Doyle and Wilkins 9-1 [Kenneth P. Doyle and Emily Wilkins are Bloomberg Government
reporters; “Republicans Seek Midterm Advantage From Afghanistan Withdrawal,” Bloomberg
Government, https://about.bgov.com/news/republicans-seek-midterm-advantage-from-
afghanistan-withdrawal/]
America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan is already playing a role in Republican efforts to win
back control of the House and Senate, with GOP campaign committees highlighting news
coverage of the chaotic scenes at the Kabul airport in videos and other messaging.
It’s the latest issue Republicans are labeling a Joe Biden crisis, along with a jump in illegal
crossings at the southern border, a threat of inflation due to increased government spending,
and higher gas prices. They’re also blaming the president for failing to support Israel’s
government, Cuban dissidents, and U.S. energy workers, according to a video from the National
Republican Senatorial Committee that calls it Biden’s “Agenda of Abandonment.”
Republicans are hammering on these themes and seeking to hang the president’s problems
around the necks of congressional Democrats, who are clinging to slim majorities in both
chambers. But it isn’t clear to strategists in either party whether voters will be focused on these
issues when they go to the polls next year, rather than economic and health care issues touted by
Democrats.
“The good news for the Democrats is the midterms are still over 14 months away , but
there’s no question this is a major political problem that undermines public confidence in
the president’s ability to lead,” Republican consultant Brian Walsh said.
If Republicans raise enough doubts about Biden’s leadership on Afghanistan and other issues,
they could drag down congressional Democrats next year , said Walsh, who compared
the Afghanistan withdrawal to President George W. Bush’s much-criticized response to
Hurricane Katrina. That took place at the same point of the 2006 election cycle, when
Republicans lost 30 House seats and their majorities in both chambers.
Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), head of the Republican Study Committee, said in an interview that
“without a doubt” the Biden administration’s handling of the withdrawal is increasing the odds
that Republicans take back the House.
“The midterm election will be a true show that the American people want something different —
they want leadership, and they’re not getting it,” Banks said.
Democrats Tout Domestic Wins
Democrats—who control the 50-50 Senate with the vice president’s tie-breaking vote and can
lose no more than four seats to keep the House—plan to run on an improving economy and
efforts to control the coronavirus pandemic and address health care in general. They also point
to legislative accomplishments that include a pandemic relief bill passed on a party-line vote
early this year, a still-in-progress bipartisan infrastructure bill, and an even larger bill with
increases in spending on social programs.
Jazmin Vargas, a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokeswoman, listed tax cuts for
families, infrastructure investments that lead to better paying jobs, and lowering health-care
costs as issues on which Republicans are on the wrong side.
“Those issue areas are going to be top of mind for voters during the 2022 midterms, and they’ll hold every GOP Senate candidate
accountable,” Vargas said.
Democratic fortunes are intrinsically tied to how voters view Biden, who defended the United States’ evacuation effort Tuesday
following its conclusion. Biden’s approval rating dropped 4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average in August.
Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill), a former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair who isn’t seeking re-election next year,
said in an interview that Biden “is on the verge of making something great happen in this nation” by
helping pass the infrastructure and social spending bills.
Bustos isn’t concerned about his job ratings , which “are going to go up and going to go down,
what, a million times between now and Election Day,” she said.
Staying Power
The Afghanistan withdrawal “will forever be a stain on our nation’s history” due to Biden’s poor judgment and leadership, the NRSC
said in releasing a video featuring scenes of helicopters fleeing the American embassy and the airport chaos. A series of NRSC press
releases the past two weeks condemned Democratic Senate incumbents and candidates for failing to distance themselves from Biden
and for failing to hold him accountable on Afghanistan.
The videos have run on social media platforms. The NRSC hasn’t announced any plans to sponsor paid campaign ads focused on
Afghanistan, according to committee spokeswoman Katharine Cooksey.
Democratic strategists maintain Afghanistan is unlikely to be as big an issue when the midterms are held more than a year from
now.
The idea that the Afghanistan withdrawal will hurt Democrats in 2022 “isn’t based in reality,” Will Fischer, a senior adviser to the
Democratic PAC VoteVets, said in an email. “Frankly, we’d encourage Republicans to run on more Forever War, and see how they
do.”
Martha McKenna, a Democratic media consultant and former top campaign committee official, said voters ultimately will give Biden
credit for keeping his promise to end the war, even though the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan has dominated recent headlines.
“Anyone predicting midterm outcomes based on news events would be better off
focusing on their fantasy football draft ,” McKenna said.
1AR Thumpers
COVID will overshadow all other issues
Wollner 8-19 [Adam Wollner, deputy editor in McClatchy’s Washington bureau; “Surge in
COVID cases reshapes early 2022 election strategies for both parties,” 8-19-21;
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article253449069.html]
Rising coronavirus cases across the country are threatening to upend both parties’ burgeoning
midterm election strategies, as plans to focus on other political issues have been overshadowed
by the ongoing pandemic. Democrats and Republicans had been anticipating a “summer of freedom” from
COVID-19, as President Joe Biden put it in June, with the country seemingly returning to a state of normalcy after more than a year
of lockdowns, masks and social distancing. But that sense has faded in recent weeks due to the spread of the highly
contagious delta variant and vaccination rates slowing compared to earlier in the year. That has
complicated plans from both parties to begin shifting the public’s attention to areas they see as
politically advantageous ahead of the 2022 campaign. Democrats are seeking to build support
for the infrastructure and spending plans Biden is attempting to push through Congress in the
coming weeks, while Republicans have sought to highlight crime, inflation and immigration. Now
those issues are taking a backseat once again to a deadly virus that has proven
unpredictable , as debates over vaccine and mask mandates return. “We’re more concerned with how it’s
going to be an issue than we were four weeks ago. It’s been that quick,” said Doug Heye, a former Republican National Committee
aide. “The challenge is we’re in a place we didn’t think we’d be, but we just don’t know where things are going to go.” Democrats are
facing the political challenges of the COVID resurgence as they seek to build support for Biden’s policy agenda at a critical juncture.
The Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a $3.5 trillion budget bill championed by Biden this week. The House of
Representatives is expected to begin considering those proposals later this month.
the crisis in Afghanistan in sponsored posts on social media. "This snowballs into other themes on the notion that in
2020, then-candidate Biden made the centerpiece of his campaign a return to normalcy. He projected himself as somebody who was going to be a
leader on issues," Matt Terrill, a Republican strategist and partner at Firehouse Strategies, told CBS News. " This
is a huge blunder that
members on both sides are calling him out on. It snowballs into other issues like
leadership, the ability to manage and lead." Terrill said Mr. Biden's handling of the drawdown could impact
Senate races in Georgia and Arizona , where there are high populations of veterans or
active-duty military and Democrats are attempting to hold on to their seats . "The elections are
going to be referendums on the incumbents, in particular this midterm," Terrill said. "It's about trust,
it's about confidence. It's about Americans' confidence in their leaders." The midterm elections are 15 months away,
and the outcome will determine whether Democrats maintain control of Congress. In the Senate, which is evenly divided, Vice President Kamala Harris casts tie-breaking votes,
giving Democrats a razor-thin edge. But in the House, Democrats also hold a tiny majority of just eight seats. Focusing on the president's handling of Afghanistan holds some
peril for Republicans, though: their longtime support for the 20-year war there and attempts to use the chaos in Kabul to their advantage could force them to defend the years
the U.S. spent there. "This is a bipartisan albatross around the neck," Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told CBS News. "It's very
difficult for people to say they're innocent of anything, and the blame game in this case is probably accurate, because whoever you point to is going to have some degree of blame.
It's a tough issue to use." And Sabato also pointed out that Mr. Biden has a substantial counterargument — that he can "reasonably say" he's the first president in two decades to
follow through with a pledge to end the war in Afghanistan. Sabato noted the president makes a valid point that leaving was always going to be difficult, as Mr. Biden said
Sunday. "It was always going to be messy," Sabato said of the evacuations of Americans and Afghan allies from Kabul. "They clearly could've done a better job in planning, I
don't think they deny that, but is that enough for people to determine their vote in a midterm election when other big issues are on the table? I don't think so." The drawdown in
Afghanistan, he continued, "will not be a footnote, but a relatively short chapter of the campaign." Instead, Sabato predicted many Americans will be interested in the state of the
it will be
coronavirus pandemic and the economy, come November 2022. While Bolger agreed the situation in Afghanistan won't be the focus of next year's contests,
"one piece of a mosaic" about Mr. Biden's handling of crises and a "messaging arc" that the
White House has to get under control. "He's fumbling the ball on Afghanistan, COVID, the
border, inflation ," he said. "So the whole picture that's being painted just seven months into his
presidency is not a good looking picture, and once it goes off the tracks, it's hard to get it
back on the track."
Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) and Filemon Vela (D-Texas), have announced their retirements ahead of
2022. All of them, with the exception of Demings, are on the National Republican Congressional
Committee’s target list next year. Democrats are already clinging to one of the narrowest
House majorities in decades after a worse-than-expected performance in 2020 that saw the
party lose 13 seats in the lower chamber. The 2022 elections threaten to further chip away at their
holdings, especially given the tendency for a new president’s party to lose ground in the
midterms. Making the situation even more dire for the party is the decennial redistricting
process, which began in earnest last week when the Census Bureau released long-awaited district-level results of the 2020 count.
While those results showed an increasingly diverse and urban United States, Republicans control the legislatures —
and consequently the redistricting process — in several key states , including Texas, Florida and
North Carolina, all three of which will add House seats through reapportionment. That raises
the prospect that the GOP could retake the House majority through redistricting
alone. “The Republicans are going to milk the redistricting as much as possible,” one Democratic
National Committee member said. “So if there’s anything that we can do, we need to make sure we’re holding the retirements to a
minimum, because, structurally, we don’t have the advantage.”
Reps win
LaVarr and Webb 8-27 [Republican LaVarr Webb is a journalist and political
consultant; Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, and political adviser; “Opinion: Will
Republicans retake the House in 2022?” Deseret News,
https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2021/8/27/22639743/2022-election-republicans-retake-
house-biden-missteps]
The biggest political question between now and November 2022 will be: Can Republicans retake control of Congress? Right now,
Republicans are quite optimistic, and some analysts say they have reason to be. We look at the national political climate and what it
means for Utah. The party in power gets the blame when things go wrong . The debacle in Afghanistan,
the COVID-19 resurgence and unprecedented deficit spending have put the Biden
administration on the defensive. In addition, GOP control of redistricting in many states could tilt
the playing field. Is it all but inevitable that Democrats lose control of Congress? In 2016, many well-paid political gurus
unequivocally predicted the “Blue Wall” guaranteed overwhelming victory for Hillary Clinton. In 2018, these sages declared the “Red
Seawall” of Republican redistricting would protect their majority in the House. They predicted major gains for Democrats in 2020.
Thus, readers are cautioned against over reliance on speculations from such “experts” regarding 2022. (Especially beware of LaVarr
and me.) Yet,history does offer some guidance. Perceptions of the 1975 Saigon evacuation contributed to Gerald Ford’s
1976 loss. The embarrassing 1980 botched rescue attempt of Americans in Iran detrimentally
impacted Jimmy Carter. Bungling relief efforts by the Bush administration after Hurricane
Katrina helped Democrats capture both houses of Congress in 2006. (Conversely, in 1983, after American
soldiers were slaughtered in Lebanon, Ronald Reagan — who understood the power of symbolism — invaded Grenada within days to
restore perceptions of strength and competency.) Americans — a hardworking, productive people — are oftentimes required to
perform well in crisis situations. They expect the same of their government. The Biden administration has about six months to find
its Grenada to demonstrate proficiency and restore prestige. Otherwise, the history books, not political pundits, will offer guidance
to November 2022. Webb: Redistricting alone could net Republicans 4 to 5 seats in the House. Smart people
I talk to say it’s very likely Republicans will win the House, and they have a very good chance to take back the Senate. Democrats
understand this, and that’s why they’re so anxious to show progress by passing three key bills: The voting rights bill, which would
nationalize elections in America, the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, and the $3.5 trillion “human infrastructure” bill that
will dramatically enlarge the welfare state and the size and reach of the federal government. The problem is, the voting rights
bill and the human infrastructure bill might hurt, not help, the Democrats in the midterms.
With razor-thin victory margins in 2020, Democrats didn’t really have a mandate to raise taxes,
go on a spending spree, run roughshod over state prerogatives and open the southern border to
millions of illegal immigrants. But they’re forging ahead anyway. Add to that the Afghanistan disaster, surging
inflation, rising crime, the COVID-19 upsurge, and an overall decline of confidence in government,
and we can see why Democrats are worried.
2AC/1AR Issues Now Don’t Matter
Nothing that happens now matters – voters will forget and future
issues overshadow
Bowman et al. 8-21 [Bridget Bowman, Stephanie Akin, and Kate Ackley are Roll Call
reporters; “At the Races: Are voters listening?” Roll Call, 8-21-21;
https://www.rollcall.com/2021/08/26/at-the-races-are-voters-listening/]
The new ads come as Republicans have gone on the offensive, targeting Democrats over rising
prices and spending. Majority Forward’s ads aimed to counter prescription drug-related ads
from the GOP group One Nation, which is tied to the Senate Leadership Fund. On Wednesday,
the NRCC announced a new round of digital ads knocking 15 targeted House Democrats for
rising prices.
The early ad wars are precursors to a battle over the economy in the 2022 midterms. But are
voters even tuning in right now? Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told McClatchy that voters
crucial to their coalition are checked out and they “feel everything is contentious,
exhausting and divisive.” With plenty of partisan battles ahead when Congress returns
next month, those feelings probably aren’t changing anytime soon.