Professional Documents
Culture Documents
XOM Q4 2021 Presentation
XOM Q4 2021 Presentation
RESULTS
2.1.22
DARREN WOODS
CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
KATHY MIKELLS
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
Statements of future events or conditions in this presentation or the subsequent discussion period are forward-looking statements. Similarly, emission-
reduction roadmaps are dependent on future market factors, such as continued technological progress and policy support, and represent forward-
looking statements. Actual future results, including financial and operating performance; earnings, cash flow, and rates of return; project plans, timing,
costs, and capacities; realization and maintenance of cost reductions, opex savings and structural efficiencies; integration benefits; emissions intensity
and absolute emissions reductions; achievement of ambitions to reach Scope 1 and Scope 2 net zero from operated assets by 2050, or Scope 1 and
Scope 2 net zero in Upstream Permian operated assets by 2030, the elimination of routine flaring in-line with World Bank Zero Routine Flaring, or the
completion of major asset emission-reduction roadmaps; operating performance improvements; maintenance and turnaround activity; implementation
and outcomes of carbon capture and storage projects, renewable fuel projects, and other technology efforts; price and margin recovery; dividends and
shareholder returns including the timing and amounts of share repurchases, cash and debt balances, capital expenditures; resource recoveries and
production rates; and product sales levels and mix could differ materially due to a number of factors including global or regional changes in oil, gas,
petrochemicals, or feedstock prices, differentials, or other market or economic conditions affecting the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries and the
demand for our products; policy and consumer support for emission-reduction products and technology; the outcome of competitive bidding and
project wins; regulatory actions targeting public companies in the oil and gas industry; changes in local, national, or international laws, regulations, and
policies affecting our business including with respect to the environment; the development and transportation of our products; taxes, trade sanctions,
and actions taken in response to pandemic concerns; the pace of regional and global economic recovery from the pandemic and the occurrence and
severity of future outbreaks; the ability to realize efficiencies within and across our business lines and to maintain cost reductions without impairing our
competitive positioning; the outcome and timing of exploration and development projects; reservoir performance; timely completion of construction
projects; war and other security disturbances; actions of consumers and changes in consumer preferences; opportunities for and regulatory approval of
investments or divestments that may arise, including satisfaction of conditions precedent under applicable agreements; the outcome of our or
competitors’ research efforts and the ability to bring new technology to commercial scale on a cost-competitive basis; the development and
competitiveness of alternative energy and emission reduction technologies; unforeseen technical or operating difficulties including the need for
unplanned maintenance; and other factors discussed here and in Item 1A. Risk Factors of our Annual Report on Form 10-K and under the heading
“Factors Affecting Future Results” available through the Investors page of our website at exxonmobil.com. All forward-looking statements are based
on management’s knowledge and reasonable expectations at the time of this presentation and we assume no duty to update these statements as of
any future date.
Reconciliations and definitions of non-GAAP measures and other terms are provided in the text or in the supplemental information accompanying these
slides on pages 29—37.
2
POSITIONING TO SUSTAINABLY GROW SHAREHOLDER VALUE
• Leveraging scale to drive step change in cost and establish industry efficiency benchmarks
LEAD EARNINGS AND CASH • Upgrading our portfolio through industry-advantaged, high-return investments and selective M&A
FLOW GROWTH • Maintaining financial and operating discipline across commodity cycles
• Setting industry performance standards in safety, environment, and reliability
• Leveraging advantaged upstream portfolio and leading chemicals / fuels / lubricants business to fund
investments and drive returns
LEAD DRIVE TO A NET-ZERO • Driving lower-emission innovation, scale investments, and policy developments
FUTURE
• Accelerating our GHG emission reductions; leading in areas hard to decarbonize
• Aiming to achieve net-zero Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions from operated assets by 2050
Increased Guyana recoverable resource to ~10 Increased Permian production by 100 Koebd
Boeb with 6 discoveries2 with improved capital efficiency3
U/S D/S CHEM C&F TOTAL • Liquids and gas realizations increased with
3Q21 GAAP Earnings / (Loss) 4.0 1.3 2.1 (0.6) 6.8
continued demand recovery and supply
constraints
3Q21 Earnings / (Loss) ex. identified items 4.0 1.3 2.1 (0.6) 6.8
(336)
100
• Lubricants business delivered record earnings
4.5
• High-value volume growth in Permian, Guyana,
1.9 Chemical performance products, and Lubricants
15.9
• Structural cost reductions drove improvements
across all businesses
14.9
6.8
$38 billion
4.4 0.9
Free cash flow
B
i
l
l
i
o
n
U
S
D
AVG BREAKEVEN 2022—2027 TO COVER CAPITAL PROGRAM AND DIVIDENDS3 • Business improvements further reduce 2022—2027
$/bbl
average breakeven to ~$35/bbl
41
(5) Cost 3 ~35 − Portfolio upgrading driven by higher mix of low cost-
(9) Mix of-supply barrels and higher-value Fuel and Chemical
(2) Volume 9
products
(3)
− Cost reductions contribute $5/bbl improvement
2021 Business Adjust to Avg. Capex Avg. asset 2022-2027 − Business improvement more than offsets higher
improvement 2021 dollars sales avg. (real) investments and lower asset sales
Other
Chem • More than $1 billion in lower-emission investments
D/S planned across businesses
10
U/S
0
2021 U/S D/S Chem 2022
Resilient gasoline and diesel demand; recent COVID variants mainly impacting jet demand
DOWNSTREAM
Higher planned turnarounds and maintenance
14
2022 LOOK AHEAD: GROWING SHAREHOLDER VALUE
• Leveraging synergies across businesses to drive further efficiencies
LEAD EARNINGS AND CASH • Start-up of Liza Phase 2 FPSO in Guyana and Coral FLNG in Mozambique
FLOW GROWTH • Continuing high-value growth of Permian while improving capital efficiency
• Ramp-up of Corpus Christi Chemical Complex and start-up of Baton Rouge Polypropylene
• Final investment decisions (FID) for LaBarge and Porthos CCS projects
BUILD SUCCESSFUL
LOWER-EMISSION • Progressing renewable diesel projects with Global Clean Energy start-up and Strathcona FID
BUSINESSES • Continue developing early-stage large-scale CCS opportunities
PRODUCT SOLUTIONS
FUELS & LUBRICANTS
GAS & POWER MARKETING
LOW CARBON
UPSTREAM VENTURES
SOLUTIONS
CHEMICALS
UPSTREAM
UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT
EXPLORATION
PRODUCTION
CHEMICALS
XTO
Upstream research Tech & Eng Operations Excellence, Sustainability, SSHE Global Operations and Sustainability
Global Services & Corporate Functions Global Services & Corporate Functions Global Services & Corporate Functions
16
EVOLVING OUR BUSINESS MODEL
Business benefiting from full set of corporate competitive advantages
PRODUCT SOLUTIONS
− Increased ownership and accountability
LOW CARBON
SOLUTIONS
UPSTREAM
17
DRIVING TOWARD NET ZERO
Tangible steps and plan commitments through 2030
ROADMAP SUPPORTING PERMIAN 2030 NET-ZERO PLAN1
CO2 equivalent • Expect to meet 2025 GHG emission-reduction
plans four years early2
Potential GHG benefits of ExxonMobil products • Committed to helping society reduce overall GHG
emissions
MTA of GHG emissions avoided if all
13
avoided if all ExxonMobil’s
projected 2030 volumes into U.S.
plastic packaging displaces
alternatives3
3,951
• Higher expenses mainly due to maintenance spend
22
DOWNSTREAM PERSPECTIVE
Strong earnings recovery reflects improved demand
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO CHANGE IN EARNINGS
Million USD • Higher margins reflect continued demand recovery
80
partially offset by increased energy prices in Europe
(250)
23
CHEMICAL PERSPECTIVE
Margins softened from historic highs
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO CHANGE IN EARNINGS
Million USD • Margins moved into middle of 10-year range due to
2,140 increased supply and higher feed / energy costs
15
(100)
• Higher European gas demand
70
3,761
3,712
(25)
(10) • Entitlements impacted by higher prices
25
UPSTREAM VOLUMES
Volumes increased with lower curtailments and higher demand
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO CHANGE IN VOLUMES
Koebd • Lower government-mandated curtailments
3,816
(10) • Higher European seasonal gas demand
85 (15)
90
3,665 • Divestment of U.K. North Sea assets
26
MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Gas and crude prices continue to improve
PRICES / MARGINS
2010—2021 • Crude prices remained in middle of 10-year range
600 600
300 300
0
1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 est. 0
1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 est.
0
1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 est.
2021
Net cash provided by operating activities (U.S. GAAP) 48.1
Additions to property, plant and equipment (12.1)
Proceeds associated with sales of subsidiaries, property, plant and equipment, and sales and returns of investments 3.2
Additional investments and advances (2.8)
Other investing activities including collection of advances 1.5
Free cash flow 37.9
2021
Net cash provided by operating activities (U.S. GAAP) 48.1
Asset sales 3.2
Cash flow from operations and asset sales 51.3
Forward-looking statements contained in this presentation regarding the potential for future cash flows, emission reductions, dividends, and volumes,
including statements regarding future cash flow potential and returns in the Upstream, Chemical and Downstream segments and in our lower-carbon
investments under third-party net-zero scenarios, are not forecasts of actual future results. The statements and analysis in this presentation represent a
good faith effort by the Company to address these hypotheticals despite significant unknown variables and, at times, inconsistent market and
government policy signals. Energy demand modeling aims to replicate system dynamics of the global energy system, requiring simplifications. The
reference to any scenario, including any potential net zero scenario, does not imply ExxonMobil views any particular scenario as likely to occur. In
addition, energy demand scenarios require assumptions on a variety of parameters. As such, the outcome of any given scenario using an energy
demand model comes with a high degree of uncertainty. For example, the IEA describes its NZE scenario as extremely challenging, requiring
unprecedented innovation, unprecedented international cooperation and sustained support and participation from consumers. Third-party scenarios
discussed in this presentation reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use or inclusion
herein is not an endorsement by ExxonMobil of their underlying assumptions, likelihood or probability. Investment decisions are made on the basis of
ExxonMobil’s separate planning process, but may be secondarily tested for robustness or resiliency against different assumptions, including against
various scenarios. Any use of the modeling of a third-party organization within this document does not constitute or imply an endorsement by
ExxonMobil of any or all of the positions or activities of such organization.
Non-GAAP and other measures. With respect to historical periods, reconciliation and other information is provided on pages 29—37 of this
presentation and in the Frequently Used Terms available on the Investors page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com under the heading News &
Resources for certain terms used in this presentation including free cash flow and cash flow from operations and asset sales. For future periods, we are
unable to provide a reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP or other measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because the
information needed to reconcile these measures is dependent on future events, many of which are outside management’s control as described above.
Additionally, estimating such GAAP measures and providing a meaningful reconciliation consistent with our accounting policies for future periods is
extremely difficult and requires a level of precision that is unavailable for these future periods and cannot be accomplished without unreasonable effort.
Forward-looking non-GAAP measures are estimated in a manner consistent with the relevant definitions and assumptions noted above.
31
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Important information and assumptions regarding certain forward-looking statements. For all price point comparisons, unless otherwise indicated,
we assume $3/mmbtu Henry Hub gas prices. Unless otherwise specified, crude prices are Brent prices. These are used for clear comparison purposes
and are not necessarily representative of management’s internal price assumptions. All crude and natural gas prices for future years are adjusted for
inflation from 2021. Sensitivity references to cash earnings illustrate the potential impact of price changes in approximate cash impacts to the company.
Downstream and Chemical margins reflect annual historical averages for the 10-year period from 2010—2019 unless otherwise stated. Lower-emission
returns are calculated based on current policies already in place.
These prices are not intended to reflect management’s forecasts for future prices or the prices we use for internal planning purposes.
Unless otherwise indicated, asset sales and proceeds are consistent with our internal planning. For future periods, we have assumed Corporate &
Financing before-tax expenses between $2.3 and $2.6 billion annually. To illustrate future financial capacity, we have used scenarios of Corporate &
Financing expenses that reflect the estimated potential debt levels under those scenarios.
ExxonMobil reported emissions, including reductions and avoidance performance data, are based on a combination of measured and estimated data.
Calculations are based on industry standards and best practices, including guidance from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and IPIECA. The
uncertainty associated with the emissions, reductions and avoidance performance data depends on variation in the processes and operations, the
availability of sufficient data, the quality of those data and methodology used for measurement and estimation. Changes to the performance data may
be reported as updated data and/or emission methodologies become available. ExxonMobil works with industry, including API and IPIECA, to improve
emission factors and methodologies, including measurements and estimates.
See the Cautionary Statement at the front of this presentation for additional information regarding forward-looking statements.
32
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Definitions
Structural cost reductions (also structural cost savings, structural efficiencies, structural savings, structural cost improvement). Structural cost reductions describe decreases
in the below expenses as a result of operational efficiencies, workforce reductions and other cost saving measures that are expected to be sustainable compared to 2019 levels.
Relative to 2019, estimated cumulative annual structural cost reductions totaled $4.9 billion, of which $1.9 billion was achieved in 2021. The total change between periods in
expenses below will reflect both structural cost reductions and other changes in spend, including market factors, such as energy costs, inflation, and foreign exchange impacts,
as well as changes in activity levels and costs associated with new operations. Structural cost reductions are stewarded internally to support management’s oversight of
spending over time. This measure is useful for investors to understand the Corporation’s efforts to optimize spending through disciplined expense management.
Debt-to-capital ratio (leverage). Total debt / (total debt + total equity). Total debt is the sum of (1) Notes and loans payable and (2) Long-term debt, as reported in Form 10-Q
along with Total equity.
Free cash flow. Free cash flow is cash flow from operations and asset sales less additions to property, plant and equipment, and additional investments and advances, plus other
investing activities, including collection of advances. This measure is useful when evaluating cash available for financing activities, including shareholder distributions, after
investment in the business. See reconciliation on page 30; for information concerning the calculation and reconciliation of free cash flow for historical periods see the Frequently
Used Terms available on the Investors page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com under the heading News & Resources.
33
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Definitions
Lower-emission fuels. Fuels with lower life cycle emissions than conventional transportation fuels for gasoline, diesel, and jet transport.
Roadmap (emission reductions). The Company’s roadmap approach identifies greenhouse gas emission reduction opportunities and the investment and policy needs required
to get to net zero. The roadmaps are tailored to account for facility configuration and maintenance schedules, and they will be updated as technologies and policies evolve.
Separately, the reference case for planning beyond 2030 (including impairment assessments and future planned development activities) is based on the Energy Outlook, which
contains the Company’s demand and supply projection based on its assessment of current trends in technology, government policies, consumer preferences, geopolitics, and
economic development. As the roadmaps evolve, they continue to inform the company’s planning process.
Operating cash flow modeled under IEA NZE 2050 scenario. Operating cash flow is defined as net income, plus depreciation, depletion and amortization for consolidated and
equity companies, plus noncash adjustments related to asset retirement obligations plus proceeds from asset sales. The Company believes this measure can be helpful in
assessing the resiliency of the business to generate cash from different potential future markets. The performance data presented in this publication, including on emissions, is
not financial data and is not GAAP data.
Performance product (performance chemicals). Refers to Chemical products that provide differentiated performance for multiple applications through enhanced properties
versus commodity alternatives and bring significant additional value to customers and end-users.
Project. The term “project” as used in this presentation can refer to a variety of different activities and does not necessarily have the same meaning as in any government
payment transparency reports.
Resources, resource base, and recoverable resources. Along with similar terms, these refer to the total remaining estimated quantities of oil and natural gas that are expected
to be ultimately recoverable. ExxonMobil refers to new discoveries and acquisitions of discovered resources as resource additions. The resource base includes quantities of oil
and natural gas classified as proved reserves, as well as, quantities that are not yet classified as proved reserves, but that are expected to be ultimately recoverable. The term
“resource base” or similar terms is not intended to correspond to SEC definitions such as “probable” or “possible” reserves. The term “in-place” refers to those quantities of oil
and natural gas estimated to be contained in known accumulations and includes recoverable and unrecoverable amounts.
Returns, rate of return, IRR. Unless referring specifically to external data, references to returns, rate of return, IRR, and similar terms mean future discounted cash flow returns
on future capital investments based on current company estimates. Investment returns exclude prior exploration and acquisition costs.
34
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Slide 4 Slide 12
1) 2025 emissions reductions plans announced in December 2020 included a 15 to 20 1) CFO / Asset sales includes total corporate cash flow from operations and
percent reduction in greenhouse gas intensity for upstream operations compared asset sales. Estimated segment-level cash flow includes earnings excluding
to 2016 levels. This was supported by a 40 to 50 percent reduction in corporate identified items plus depreciation and depletion. Other includes items such as
corporate and financing expense, proceeds from asset sales, and changes in
methane intensity, and a 35-45 percent reduction in corporate flaring intensity. working capital and other. Div / PP&E / I&A includes dividends to
Plans covered Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions for assets operated by the company. shareholders and additions to PP&E, net investments and advances, and
2) Gross recoverable resource. other financing items. The PP&E / I&A factor includes changes in non-
3) Net production. controlling interests and dividends to minority interests.
4) Cash proceeds. 2) Factors adjust CFO / Asset sales by removing working capital, and illustrate
the impact of adjusting 2021 actual Downstream and Chemical margins, and
2021 actual gas prices to average levels. Average Downstream and Chemical
Slide 5 margins reflect annual historical averages for the 10-year period from 2010—
2019. We assume $3/mmbtu Henry Hub gas prices for adjustment. Natural
1) Versus 2020. See definitions on page 33. gas prices for future years are adjusted for inflation from 2021. Avg CFO /
2) See slide 12 and corresponding footnotes. asset sales reflects 2021 cash flow from operations and asset sales, excluding
3) To be executed over 12—24 months beginning in 2022. working capital, adjusted to average prices and margins. Oil price - $71 to
$41 is remaining cash after subtracting cash uses from CFO / Asset sales
Slide 6 after the working capital and price and margin adjustments above. The
1) Period-to-period change in earnings as a result of fair-value accounting for adjustment for Oil price - $71 to $41, divided by an assumption of a $475
unsettled derivatives. million change in after-tax earnings for every $1/bbl change in oil price, is
then subtracted from 2021 Brent price to estimate the 2021 breakeven.
3) For all price point comparisons, unless otherwise indicated, we assume
Slide 11 $3/mmbtu Henry Hub gas prices. All crude and natural gas prices for future
1) Includes PP&E Adds of ($12.1) billion and net investments / advances of ($1.3) years are adjusted for inflation from 2021. Brent breakeven and gas prices
billion in 2021. are in 2021 dollars, adjusted for inflation as reflected in the Adjust to 2021
dollars factor. Downstream and Chemical margins reflect annual historical
averages for the 10-year period from 2010—2019. Any decisions on future
dividend levels are at the discretion of the Board of Directors. This chart
assumes dividends are held flat relative to 4Q21 levels. It also assumes the
$475 million change in after-tax earnings for every $1/bbl change in oil price
increases from 2022—2027.
35
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Slide 18 Slide 19
1) This chart illustrates potential greenhouse gas abatement options as of the date of 1) The modeled figures are estimates and assume that 100% EM LNG volumes
the ExxonMobil Advancing Climate Solutions: 2022 Progress Report publication. displace unabated coal for power generation. For GHG avoided emissions,
These options (such as abatement reduction magnitude, implementation timing, the life-cycle GHG benefit basis from Mallapragada et al. 2018
abatement cost, portfolio changes, policy developments, and technology (https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.8b04539) was used.
advancements) may change as actual Scope 1 and 2 GHG reduction endeavors are 2) Calculation based on projected 2021 plan volumes for 2030 and specific
implemented and annual company plans are updated. estimated fuel CI by project from Argonne National Labs’ GREET model
2) 2025 emissions reductions plans announced in December 2020 included a 15 to 20 analysis as compared against its conventional fuel alternate.
percent reduction in greenhouse gas intensity for upstream operations compared 3) Calculation of 13 million metric tons based on: April 2018 Franklin Associates
to 2016 levels. This was supported by a 40 to 50 percent reduction in corporate Report, 4.7 metric tons of enabled avoided emissions per metric ton of resin
methane intensity, and a 35-45 percent reduction in corporate flaring intensity. used in plastic packaging derived from April 2018 Franklin Associates Report
Plans covered Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions for assets operated by the company. (Table 2-2 and Table 4-14), ExxonMobil’s sales volumes into U.S. packaging
3) Emission reduction plans announced in December 2021 include a 20 to 30 percent applications, and U.S. growth of plastic packaging to 2030 using third-party
reduction in corporate greenhouse gas intensity by 2030 compared to 2016 levels. forecast for polyethylene (IHS Markit report, 2022 Edition: Fall 2021 update,
This will be supported by a 40 to 50 percent reduction in upstream greenhouse gas U.S., 2019-2030) as a proxy.
intensity, a 70 to 80 percent reduction in methane intensity, and a 60 to 70 percent 4) ExxonMobil’s proprietary portfolio life-cycle model estimates elements of
reduction in flaring intensity compared to 2016. The 2030 emission reduction plans Scope 1, 2, and 3 GHG emissions for ExxonMobil’s Upstream, Downstream,
are expected to reduce absolute greenhouse gas emissions of the Corporation by and Chemicals businesses. The estimated figures are based on projected
approximately 20 percent. Plans cover Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions for asset 2021 plan volumes for 2030. The decrease in absolute emissions and
operated by the company, consistent with approved corporate plans. emissions intensity is a result of continued improvement in greenhouse gas
4) Ambition for net zero greenhouse gas emissions for operated assets by 2050 was performance of existing operations, optimization of the asset portfolio and
announced in January 2022. The ambition covers Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. product mix, with a growth in LNG, chemical products, lubricants, and lower-
emissions fuels that help customers reduce their emissions.
36
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
Slide 20 Slide 24
1) Modeling assumptions include: (1) current prices for Brent and Henry Hub decline 1) Certification through the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification
to conform with IEA NZE published prices by 2025 and the price path is linear Plus (ISCC+) process.
between IEA NZE published prices by decade thereafter, (2) chemicals margins
decline over time partially offset by inflation, (3) refining margins decline consistent Slide 27
with the change in oil demand under IEA NZE, (4) Low Carbon Solutions 1) Source: S&P Global Platts.
investments attract reasonable returns based on historical Company averages for 2) Source: ICE. Equal weighting of Henry Hub and NBP.
similar business lines and products, (5) market position as a percentage of demand 3) Source: S&P Global Platts and ExxonMobil analysis. Net margin calculated by
under IEA NZE for current business (Upstream, F&L, Chemicals) and new products equal weighting of U.S. Gulf Coast (Maya – Coking), Northwest Europe
(biofuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage) is in line with the Company’s (Brent – Catalytic Cracking), and Singapore (Dubai – Catalytic Cracking)
current market positions in existing businesses, (6) investment to abate estimated netted for industry average Opex, energy and renewable identification
GHG emissions from remaining Upstream, F&L, and Chemicals businesses by 2050, numbers (RINS).
(7) annual inflation of 2.5%, (8) total capital expenditures held approximately 4) Source: IHS Markit, Platts, and company estimates. Weighting of
constant near 2020 trailing 5-year average through 2050. The statements and polyethylene, polypropylene, and paraxylene based on ExxonMobil capacity.
figures contained in this section are hypothetical in nature, and do not constitute a
forecast of future Company performance. Slide 28
1) Estimates based on December margins and operating expenses related to
turnaround activities.
2) Based on operating expenses related to turnaround activities.
3) Estimate based on January prices.
37