INTRO

Everybody bets the NFL. Yes, even your dentist.

But I’m sure your dentist doesn’t win money betting the NFL and you might not either. Whether you’re a
new bettor or a recreational bettor who wants to take betting the NFL more seriously, there are many
small things you can do to improve your return on investment (ROI). Through the years I´ve developed
this system you are about to learn.

First of all, here are some tips of advice:

1. Never bet with your heart-forget about the team you love, or don’t bet when they are involved
2. Be patient- never go crazy and think you´re going to double up your bank roll in one single week
3. Be aware youll lose- the point is to win more times than you lose in order to show a profit,
always keep your head up.
4. Control your emotions- never ever let the hype of winning to blind you and compromise your
judgment for the next bet, always know when to stop either winning or losing.
5. Money management- always have a bankroll targeted for your bets, never bet more that you
can afford. We use a unit system which is bet 1% of your bankroll per unit per play.

Now lets get into it, in order to be a successful bettor you follow this points am about to show later on.
The NFL is different than any other sport in the world. By learning this, you will be part of the very short
list of profitable players.

So, let´s get to it.

The NFL regular season only has 256 games and is the most widely covered and talked about sport in the
country. Naturally, there will be an abundance of hot takes each and every week. You’ll see this after
Week 1, even.

As a general rule of thumb, teams that dominate one week are usually not as good as they looked. And
vice versa with teams that get blown out.

This is the NFL. Every team is uber-talented, and the gap between the best and worst teams isn’t as big
as you think. This isn’t college football, where a school like Rutgers that’s completely devoid of talent
never has any chance against Ohio State.

On a related note, final scores and basic stats can be very misleading. There are plenty of tools and sites
out there that can help you filter out a lot of the noise and adjust for opponents. For example, a team
may put up 400 yards a game, but take 80 plays to do it. That’s not nearly as effective as 400 yards in 50
plays.

Also, don’t overreact when it comes to your results. If you go 5-0 one week, that doesn’t mean you have
it all figured out and should go overboard the following week. I mean you have about a 3% chance of
going 5-0 by having your dog pick five games for you at random. Don’t get too high and stick to your
process.

Similarly, don’t get too down after a bad week. Every bettor in the world has very bad days, weeks and
months. You will also have days where you get supremely unlucky. It’s just going to happen. Don’t dwell.
It’s easier said than done and a learned skill over time with experience.

And that leads me to the next tip.

If my little sister picked my NFL bets for me over the next 20 years by using a dart board, I would
simply juice out. Without any knowledge, she’d expect to hit around 50% over a big enough sample size
using her dart board. The market is pretty efficient, so every point spread on either side is about a 50/50
proposition.

I would lose money as a result of the vig but would end up losing a lot less than most bettors.

How is that possible if anybody can pick 50% over time? Well, a lot of it can be explained by cognitive
biases, bad bet sizing and greed. Behavioral finance 101 (money management)

Casual bettors especially get into trouble when they chase, which happens a lot in the NFL. It’s
sometimes too tempting to avoid the Sunday Night Football game for most recreational gamblers. And
after a very bad day, many give into the temptation to bet way over one’s head in order to get back to
even or make up for that unlucky loss.

On the flip side, some also do this after a big winning day and let it all ride to double up on the Sunday
or Monday night game. You’re likely only going to get yourself into trouble doing this, which is why you
really should ideally bet what you want for the day before the day starts until you really know what
you’re doing.

It’s also another reason why I recommend beginners to flat bet until they have experience, find out they
have an edge over time and can quantify that edge in order to inform their bet sizing in a rational
manner.

On a related note, don’t drink and bet.

A 12-1 parlay payout looks extremely enticing to casual bettors, but just know you’re giving the house
an 18.75% edge if you assume all four games are coin flips. Compare that to just 4.75% for a regular coin
flip wager at -110 odds.

Look, if you simply want to throw in a parlay as a pure entertainment lottery ticket, be my guest. But if
you want to start taking betting more serious, just stop. Learn from most of us who did nothing but bet
exotics when we first started before learning better. I remember personally losing my shirt betting
pleasers (reverse teasers) when I first started betting back in high school. Cringe.

Parlays can actually be effective tools for professional bettors to leverage up their edge in certain cases.
However, they will almost always just erode the bottom line of less advanced bettors. Don’t get wooed
by the massive payout parlay tickets that hit and get shared on social media. NFL is hard enough to beat
without giving away that much edge.

If you want to play the lottery, you could just go buy a lottery ticket at the gas station.

4. Stop Buying Unnecessary Points

Buying points requires you to pay more money (and therefore increase your breakeven percentage for
that bet) and weigh that against how often buying that point will help you.

Almost always, it’s not worth it.

Even if you have the option to buy a half point for just 10 cents, it’s only worth considering if you’re
doing so onto or off of a key number that hits with a greater than 5% frequency.

Don’t even let it cross your mind for numbers that aren’t 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 or 14 — your key numbers.

For example, buying a favorite down from -9.5 to -9 makes absolutely no mathematical sense on any
planet. Well, maybe they play a version of football on another planet where field goals are worth triple.
But if we’re talking American football, it’s a losing proposition.

Yes, you’ll inevitably lose a 9.5-point favorite that wins by nine at some point, but I promise buying
points in that situation will hurt you more than it helps you over the long run. A nine-point margin of
victory has happened less than 2% of the time in NFL history.

The six numbers I mentioned above are the most widely known key numbers, but only margins of 3 and
7 have consistently occurred at a greater than 5% frequency (the breakeven rate for paying 10 cents for
a half point) over all significant time periods in NFL history.

That means you should pay 10 cents to either take a favorite down from 3 or 7 or an underdog to 3 or 7
or over either number. It’s closer to a breakeven proposition for the others but that could change over
time with the new extra point rule.
For your reference, here are the margins of victory frequencies since that rule change since 2015
through the 2019-20 season:

Buying on or off of the 3 makes the most sense of any key number. Games have consistently finished
with an exact margin of three points at least 10% of the time in every historical period, which implies it’s
worth paying up to 20 cents in the following four circumstances:

 Take a 3-point favorite to -2.5

 3.5-point favorite to -3

 Take a 2.5-point underdog to +3

 3-point underdog to +3.5

However, we really should focus in on games with a spread between 2.5 and 3.5 to get the most
accurate percentage, since that’s when you would think about buying on or off the 3. In our Bet Labs
database, games with spreads between 2.5 and 3.5 have been decided by exactly a field goal 9.3% of the
time since 2003. Not quite worth paying 20 cents but fairly close to breakeven and definitely worth 15
cents, which means give the choice of Ravens +2.5 -110 and Ravens +3 -125, you should choose the
latter.

It’s a little more complicated than this but a good general rule of thumb I tell beginners: only consider
buying a half point for up to 15 cents when it comes to the 3 or 7.

You’re probably falling into a loss aversion trap when you buy points in order to avoid losing by the
hook. But that’s not logical and will hurt your profits. It’s simply not worth it.
You can also apply this same logic to full game totals as none hit at a high enough rate to make the buy
worth it. Based on a historical NFL data from 2003-17, 41 was the most frequent number regarding total
points scored at 3.9%, followed by 37 and 44 (3.8% each). No number came up above the 5% breakeven
point for paying 10 cents for a half point.

5. Only Tease When It’s Wong

You actually can have an edge by blindly teasing two teams in the NFL in certain situations.

In order to break even on a six-point teaser at -110, you need teams that have a greater than 72.4%
chance of covering after being teased (which moves the spread six points in your favor). If we look back
to some data, all NFL regular-season spreads since 2003 covered 69% of the time if teased six
points. Nice, but not nice enough.

The story changes if we filter for all teases that would’ve captured both the 3 and 7, which are known as
“Wong teasers” as a nod to Stanford Wong, who famously first pointed these out to the masses.

NFL regular-season underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 and favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have covered
exactly 75.0% of the time, which clears the aforementioned 72.4% hurdle rate.

But some books have smartened up and no longer offer six-point NFL teasers at -110. (Believe it or not,
some shops used to offer them at even money.) So, if you can only bet a six-point teaser with -120 odds,
do you still have an edge teasing through the 3 and 7 on both sides of an NFL teaser?

Assuming the past is a fair indicator of future results, the answer is yes.

In order to break even on a two-team, six-point teaser at -120 odds, you need to clear a hurdle rate of
73.9%. And as I showed above, we’re at 75.0% dating back to 2003.

It’s not the greatest edge, but it is even larger if you go farther back in time — although you’ll run into
potential non-stationary issues since the game has changed so much.

Regardless, try to find a book with the best possible odds for your six-point teasers; -120 is the
maximum you should ever consider. For example, if you only had the option of betting a two-team
teaser at -130 odds, it wouldn’t make sense, as the hurdle rate with those odds is 75.2%.

Also, don’t tease totals.

The easiest thing you can do to improve your edge is to have access to multiple books. This is common
sense and just takes a little effort. Find new outlets and ensure you are always taking the best price
available to you.

I highly recommend you to download “The action network app”, it will work to track your bets and also
compare different lines on different sports books around the world.

Don’t be lazy and just bet at the book you are logged into. Betting the Steelers moneyline +130 at one
book you’re logged into instead of betting them +132 at another may not seem like a big difference, but
it adds up over time. Plus, why give away free money? It’s hard enough to win at sports betting. Don’t
make it harder on yourself.

7. Monitor and Respect the Market

This might be a little more advanced, but you should always keep your eye on the betting market. Over
time, you’ll pick up some important tendencies that make you a more informed bettor.

Let’s say you are waiting throughout the week for a 6-point underdog to hit +7. You will obviously want
to check in on your books periodically during the week. (Plug: you can also set up alerts on the Action
App).

Now, what if the line blows through +7 and goes to +8. That’s great news, right? I mean you can now get
the underdog at +8. Well, not necessarily. In other words, line movement is overrated, the fact that
everyone has access to that information, Vegas likes to play with our minds by making this changes.

Maybe there’s an injury or suspension you haven’t heard about. Or maybe there was a very respected
group of bettors that loves the favorite and got down a sizable amount. As a beginner, you shouldn’t just
ignore those moves.

Watch the market as much as you can and then reach out to a more experienced bettor and ask
questions. Ask lots of questions. Seek out a mentor (like me), which can be invaluable. Don’t be shy.

This is where the real game takes place, professional bettors play the numbers not the teams. Another
way to check the market is ask around among your friends wat do they like, and of course don’t tail
them, it’s a very good way to tell what other people have in their minds.
8. Consider Specialization

The NFL is one of the most efficient sports betting markets in the world. Almost every casual sports
bettor is wagering on the NFL on Sundays. But more importantly, so are some of the sharpest bettors
and syndicates. It’s not easy to beat.

What can be easier to beat is more specialized markets, such as player props (hint: look to bet unders).
Betting player props is not a sustainable business model for bigger bettors due to limits and restrictions
that come along with beating them over time. However, they should still be considered by beginners as
a way to increase your bankroll when first starting out.

You also might want to look beyond NFL to other sports to find a niche. You’re probably more likely to
find an edge with something like live hockey totals or second half college basketball lines than you will
when it comes to the NFL market.

The point is to focus on one kind of bet, sides, totals, 1H or 2H. Whatever you find is better for you, and
why is this? Once you get the hang of it, you will realize that there are trends and situations that only
apply to certain kind of bet, and the more you do, the more you will have to keep up to and of course it
gets harder over time, so again, just focus on one kind of bet.

9. Track the money

This is the most important variable when analyzing games, as I said, this is a game of numbers and of
course, the money is one of them, and this is mainly because of course as you may know, Vegas is not
here to give money away. So in order to beat the house, its very important to play against wherever the
real money is, usually the public tends to bet on favorites and over the total, this is where Vegas takes
advantage and takes their money. So where to track the money? As I mentioned before “the action
network app” has this function activated with their membership ($10 bucks a month) however I don’t
rely only on one spot, you can also log in to:

https://www.vegasinsider.com/

https://www.covers.com/

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/

https://www.freeplays.com/

You´ll find different numbers sometimes between them, so try to make a consensus and decide where
all info matches the most.
10. Track Your Bets

How else are you going to know if you’re any good without actually tracking the results. This really goes
for all sports and one of the reasons why there are apps like “The Action Network” which I
recommended earlier, or if you want to build your own spreadsheet, no problem. You can even do this
before wagering even money to determine if you can win and where you strengths and weaknesses lie.

Now, specifically regarding NFL betting, it’s actually tougher than most sports to determine if you have
an edge since it takes longer to actually bet a significant amount of games to give you any real insight.

You could easily get very lucky (or unlucky) for a season and assume you are much better (or worse)
than you might be. One way around this dilemma is to measure your closing line value, which should be
very telling in the user-efficient NFL market.

11. When to place your bets

Every Tuesday lines are to be released, so the only thing you should do is only to separate the games
you like and monitor those lines through the week prior to kick off, and as I mentioned in my number 9
point, of course monitor the money movement through this time as well. This is mainly because the big
bets usually come minutes before kickoff and you can get sometimes a better line or better leverage on
where to go or not. For example, last college championship game between LSU and Clemson, there was
even action on both sides, but a few hours before game time, public money started pouring on Clemson,
and well, we all know what happened. So in other words, always place your bets 10-15 minutes before
kickoff.

12. Be careful what you read and listen

It’s very important to get the biggest and better picture of his game, especially in the NFL which is the
most bet sport around the world. So never jump on tendencies heard or read on the news because they
can be totally misleading. Any way it’s important to watch for news and the previews shows on game
day so you can get a hint of what’s going on.