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Chronic Kidney Disease Is A Key Risk Factor For Severe COVID-19: A Call To Action by The ERA-EDTA
Chronic Kidney Disease Is A Key Risk Factor For Severe COVID-19: A Call To Action by The ERA-EDTA
doi: 10.1093/ndt/gfaa314
Advance Access publication 19 December 2020
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
COVID-19: a call to action by the ERA-EDTA
80 80
Prevalence (%)
Prevalence (%)
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
100 Chronic respiratory disease 100 Diabetes
Prevalence (%)
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
<5
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80–84
85–89
90–94
≥ 95
<5
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80–84
85–89
90–94
≥ 95
Age (years) Age (years)
FIGURE 1: Global prevalence of key underlying conditions associated with severe COVID-19 if infected. Prevalence by age. The four most
prevalent risk factors have been selected and ranked from left to right according to the highest global prevalence at any age range (bold black
line). Grey lines represent individual countries. Data from Clark et al. [5].
by CKD G4–G5 was consistently higher than the risk conveyed comorbidities that convey the highest risk of death in COVID-
by poorly controlled DM or severe asthma, which makes it all 19, it is replaced in the article ‘headline’ (i.e. the abstract) by
the more puzzling that CKD was not among the risk factors more ‘popular’ conditions that somewhat ironically are actually
detailed in the abstract. associated with a lower COVID-19 mortality risk than CKD.
Data for hypertension are interesting. Despite having been In a separate UK population-based cohort study undertaken
widely mentioned as a risk factor for severe COVID-19, in an in a general practice context, age and eGFR were the variables
analysis adjusted for age and sex it was only weakly associated that most strongly affected the aHRs for COVID-19-related
with the risk of death [HR 1.09 (95% CI 1.05–1.14)]. In a fully death in people with type 1 (T1DM; n ¼ 264 390) and type 2 di-
adjusted analysis, the risk associated with hypertension was in abetes (T2DM; n ¼ 2 874 020) (Figure 3) [21]. The increased
fact reversed [aHR 0.89 (95% CI 0.85–0.93)], thus suggesting risk was evident from eGFR 45–59 mL/min/1.73 m2, but not
that hypertension may be a surrogate for other conditions (e.g. with an eGFR above that value, in both T1DM and T2DM, i.e.
CKD) that convey the risk. A further explanation might be that it was evident for patients with CKD as defined by eGFR thresh-
the risk associated with hypertension is influenced by the use of olds. Unfortunately, similar to the OpenSAFELY study, the ef-
certain drugs [e.g. renin–angiotensin system (RAS) blockers]. fect of increased albuminuria was not analysed. Thus the
Although initially hypothesized that RAS blockade may in- increased risk of persons with CKD G3–G5 was confirmed, but
crease the risk of severe COVID-19 by increasing angiotensin- information on CKD G1–G2 was lacking, as in other epidemio-
converting enzyme 2 expression (and subsequent virus entry logical studies. Of the different variables analysed, an eGFR
into cells) or decrease the risk of severe COVID-19 by promot- <15 mL/min/1.73 m2 conferred the highest risk of death after
ing angiotensin(1-7) synthesis, neither of these hypotheses has age, both in T1DM [aHR compared with eGFR 90 mL/min/
been proven thus far in epidemiological studies, which instead 1.73 m2 8.35 (95% CI 5.50–12.70)] and in T2DM [aHR 4.91
tend to show a neutral effect [18, 19]. The potential impact of (95% CI 4.34–5.56)]. Other variables analysed included sex,
RAS blockade was not assessed in OpenSAFELY. Ultimately, socio-economic status or deprivation, ethnicity, haemoglobin
even when CKD is clearly demonstrated to be among A1c, BMI, blood pressure, antihypertensive drugs, smoking
ur < 1 ign t
ic ag y
se
d)
se
n
n
si
og yr anc
io
er se m pla
lle
o
ea
ly
4–
ns
veyed by CKD even further [26, 27]. These data also indicate that
se
KD
tro
ia
is
te
G
an
di
D
td
C
on
er
ne d al
KD
al
r
yp
nc
C
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al
rg
O gn ic
s
O
te
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o
be
hr
ia
a
C
a
em
D
th
H
A B
Hazard ratio for COVID-19 mortality
10 12 ++++
T1DM T1DM < 70 yr T1DM ≥ 70 yr
T2DM T2DM < 70 yr T2DM ≥ 70 yr
* * 10
8
8
6 ++++
6 ++++
4 * *
4
* * * * ++++
2
2 ++
0 0
≥ 90 60–89 45–59 30–44 15–29 <15 ≥ 90 60–89 45–59 30–44 15–29 <15
eGFR (mL/min per 1.73 m2) eGFR (mL/min per 1.73 m2)
FIGURE 3: CKD as a risk factor for COVID-19-related death in T1DM and T2DM patients in general practice. (A) The aHRs for COVID-19-
related death according to type of diabetes and eGFR range. (B) The aHRs for COVID-19-related death according to type of diabetes, age and
eGFR range. An eGFR 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 was the reference for both graphs and was considered to be 1 in each of the categories (T1DM,
T2DM and age categories within) assessed. *P < 0.0001 versus eGFR 90 mL/min/1.73 m2; þ, non-overlapping 95% CI versus eGFR 90 mL/
min/1.73m2. Data derived from Holman et al. [20].
FIGURE 4: Risk factors for COVID-19-related death. Left graph shows the situation in subjects of the general population (as derived from the
OpenSAFELY study; data from Williamson et al. [4]) and the right graph shows the situation in patients with end-stage kidney disease treated
by maintenance haemodialysis (as derived from the ERACODA cohort; data derived from Hilbrands et al. [23]).
subjects from the general population. In addition, in dialysis The mortality rates in dialysis and transplant cohorts
patients, male sex, hypertension, coronary artery disease and di- clearly demonstrate that these are high-risk populations
abetes do not confer an independent increased risk of mortality [22, 23]; given the discrepancies between risk factors in
(Figure 4). this population as compared with the general population
[23], findings in the general population cannot and should such patients different vaccination schedules may be nec-
not be extrapolated to end-stage kidney disease popula- essary (e.g. a higher dose or repeat vaccinations).
tions. There are other compelling reasons why the CKD
population merits specific study. During the last 2 decades
it has become clear that some drugs that are effective in CONCLUSIONS
patients with normal kidney function have little or no effi- Although not listed in initial reports as a risk factor for severe
cacy in patients with impaired kidney function, especially COVID-19, CKD has emerged not only as the most prevalent
in those on dialysis. This holds true for, among others, sta- comorbidity conveying an increased risk for severe COVID-19,
tins [30]. Medications prescribed to lower COVID-19 mor- but also as the comorbidity that conveys the highest risk for se-
bidity and mortality must therefore be tested in patients vere COVID-19. The increased risk is evident below the thresh-
with impaired kidney function to prove their efficacy in old of eGFR that defines CKD and the risk increases as the
this patient category. Unfortunately, randomized clinical eGFR decreases, with the highest risk in patients on kidney re-
trials often exclude patients with impaired kidney function placement therapy. Although CKD patients are known to be at
due to safety reasons [10]. It is our recommendation that increased risk of death due to infectious diseases, the factors
the kidney community should take great care to include contributing to their greater vulnerability for severe COVID-19
CKD patients in COVID-19 medication trials to avoid dis- should be explored, as these may provide valuable insights into
parities in the treatment of this patient group. A first step therapeutic approaches to the disease in this patient group. It is
in achieving this is propagating awareness of the impor- presently unknown if earlier categories of CKD (G1/G2, i.e.
tance of CKD as a key risk factor among the general com- patients with preserved kidney function but with increased al-
munity and policymakers so that the problem is buminuria) are also at an increased risk of severe COVID-19,
recognized. Furthermore, we know that because of the im- and this must be explored. Moreover, the recognition that CKD
munosuppressive nature of the uraemic milieu in dialysis significantly contributes to the severity of COVID-19 should
patients and because of the use of immunosuppressants in now result in focused efforts to improve outcomes for the 850
transplantation patients, these patients respond poorly to million global CKD patients [8]. Paramount to this is the enrol-
vaccination [31]. It is therefore imperative that CKD ment of patients representing all CKD stages, including dialysis
patients be included in trials testing the efficacy of vaccines and transplantation, in clinical trials of vaccines to prevent and
against SARS-CoV-2 infection. It is very plausible that in drugs to treat COVID-19.